En 6e atlas exec sum 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

IDF DIABETES ATLAS Sixth edition

© International Diabetes Federation, 2013 No part of this publication may be reproduced, translated, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the International Diabetes Federation.

First published, 2000 Second edition, 2003 Third edition, 2006 Fourth edition, 2009 Fifth edition, 2011 Sixth edition, 2013 Online version of IDF Diabetes Atlas: www.idf.org/diabetesatlas ISBN: 2-930229-85-3 Design and layout: De Visu Digital Document Design Cover photos: © istockphoto.com – © Tim Nolan

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Acknowledgements Diabetes Atlas, sixth edition committee Nam Han Cho (chair), David Whiting (deputy chair), Leonor Guariguata, Pablo Aschner Montoya, Nita Forouhi, Ian Hambleton, Rui Li, Azeem Majeed, Jean Claude Mbanya, Ayesha Motala, K.M. Venkat Narayan, Ambady Ramachandran, Wolfgang Rathmann, Gojka Roglic, Jonathan Shaw, Martin Silink, D.R.R. Williams, Ping Zhang.

Corporate sponsors IDF would like to express its thanks to the following sponsors for their generous support of the sixth edition:

Lilly Diabetes

Merck and Co, Inc.

Contributors The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) would like to thank the following core contributors: Florencia Aguirre, Alex Brown, Nam Han Cho, Gisela Dahlquist, the Diabetes Education Consultative Section (DECS), Sheree Dodd, Trisha Dunning, Sir Michael Hirst, Christopher Hwang, Dianna Magliano, Chris Patterson, Courtney Scott, Jonathan Shaw, Gyula Soltész, Juliet Usher-Smith, David Whiting.

Novo Nordisk A/S

– Supported through an unrestricted grant by the Novo Nordisk Changing Diabetes® initiative

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Leonor Guariguata, Tim Nolan, Jessica Beagley, Ute Linnenkamp, Olivier Jacqmain.

Acknowledgements

Editorial team

Pfizer, Inc.

Other Contributors Carlos Aguilar Salinas, Riyadh Alshamsan, Tabassum Ambia, Carmen Gloria Aylwin, Caroline Baan, Juliana Chan, Adel A. El-Sayed, Laercio Franco, Juan José Gagliardino, Jody Grundman, Lucy Hadley, Christian Herder, Hak C. Jang, Pili Kamenju, Andre Pascal Kengne, Tawfik Khoja, Mandana Kooijmans, Silvia Lapertosa, Kerry Lydon, Ronald Ching Wan Ma, Lydia Makaroff, Chris Millett, Graham Ogle, Martijn Parker, Nasheeta Peer, Lorenzo Piemonte, Salman Rawaf, Joachim Rosenbauer, Segundo Seclén, Chamukuttan Snehalatha, Anne Mieke Spijkerman, Teresa Tamayo, Sean Taylor, Sara Webber, Sarah H. Wild, Mary Vinocour, Bernard Zinman.

Sanofi Diabetes

IDF Diabetes Atlas I Sixth edition I 05

06 I IDF Diabetes Atlas I Sixth edition

Today, there are 382 million people living with diabetes. A further 316 million with impaired glucose tolerance are at high risk from the disease – an alarming number that is set to reach 471 million by 2035. Diabetes is on the rise all over the world and countries are struggling to keep pace. The misconception that diabetes is ‘a disease of the wealthy’ is still held by some – to the detriment of desperately needed funding to combat the pandemic. But the evidence published in the IDF Diabetes Atlas disproves that delusion: a staggering 80% of people with diabetes live in low- and middle-income countries, and the socially disadvantaged in any country are the most vulnerable to the disease. Today’s emerging diabetes hotspots include countries in the Middle East, Western Pacific, sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia where economic development has transformed lifestyles. These rapid transitions are bringing previously unheard of rates of obesity and diabetes; developing countries are facing a firestorm of ill health with inadequate resources to protect their population.

Despite the grim picture painted by the new figures, we already have the knowledge and expertise to begin creating a brighter future for generations to come. We must increase awareness of the importance of a healthful diet and physical activity, especially for children and adolescents.

Crucially though, environments have to be created that lay the foundations for healthy living. These measures are most pressing in low- and middleincome countries, precisely those which are least prepared to confront this huge-scale pandemic, and whose very development will be thwarted in its aftermath. It is essential that health professionals – particularly the primary care practitioners – receive adequate and appropriate training to be able to perform effectively on the front line against diabetes.

In the last two years, progress has been made toward driving political change for diabetes.

Building on the momentum of the 2011 UN Political Declaration on non-communicable diseases (NCDs), the 66th World Health Assembly in May 2013 saw the unanimous adoption by Member States of a voluntary Global Action Plan for the prevention and control of NCDs. Diabetes is now prominent on the global health agenda, with specific targets for access to essential medicines and for halting the growth of obesity and diabetes. Still, we must not miss this opportunity. Governments and policymakers, health professionals and those affected by the disease must remain engaged in the fight so that IDF may achieve its vision of living in a world without diabetes.

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It is a bittersweet pleasure to be presiding over the International Diabetes Federation upon the launch of this sixth edition of the IDF Diabetes Atlas. The evidence published herein on the millions of people swept up by the diabetes pandemic vindicates the Federation’s relentless efforts to promote solutions to this worldwide health crisis. Previous editions of the Atlas were a crucial tool in the successful campaign for a UN Resolution on diabetes and our figures informed the subsequent political declaration on non-communicable diseases. We have achieved much: diabetes is now firmly on the highest of decision-making agendas. But the figures in this edition are a harsh reminder of how far we still have to go.

Foreword

Foreword

Sir Michael Hirst President, International Diabetes Federation

By the end of 2013, diabetes will have caused 5.1 million deaths and cost USD 548 billion in healthcare spending. Without concerted action to prevent diabetes, in less than 25 years’ time there will be 592 million people living with the disease. Most of those cases would be preventable.

However, without a multi-sectoral, all-of-society approach, the disturbing projections in this edition of the IDF Diabetes Atlas will be realised.

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Introduction

More high-quality studies than ever before have contributed to the estimates in this edition of the IDF Diabetes Atlas. Nevertheless, more studies are needed to describe the burden of diabetes in order to improve the precision of the estimates, and contribute to an evidence base that is fundamental in driving powerful advocacy for people with diabetes.

Professor Nam Han Cho Chair, IDF Diabetes Atlas Committee, 6th Edition

Executive summary

The new estimates show an increasing trend towards younger and younger people developing diabetes, a trend that is very worrisome for future generations. If current demographic patterns continue, more than 592 million people will be affected with diabetes within a generation. This figure takes into account changes only in the population and patterns of urbanisation, and is almost certainly an underestimate. Estimates of type 1 diabetes in young people also show unexplained and rapid increases in several regions along with the rise in type 2 diabetes in younger populations.

For the first time, the IDF Diabetes Atlas has produced estimates of high blood glucose in pregnancy. This serious and underreported condition is affecting many women and infants – an estimated 21.4 million live births in 2013. Not only does diabetes pose a grave threat to the health of a mother and her child but evidence shows high blood glucose levels during pregnancy can lead to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes later in life for the child, further contributing to the already devastating epidemic.

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This 6th edition of the IDF Diabetes Atlas once again sets the standard for evidence on the global epidemiology of diabetes. The new estimates build on the groundwork laid by previous editions, and confirm the precipitous rise in diabetes over the last few years. An astounding 382 million people are estimated to have diabetes, with dramatic increases seen in countries all over the world. The overwhelming burden of the disease continues to be shouldered by low- and middleincome countries, where four out of five people with diabetes are living. Socially and economically disadvantaged people in every country carry the greatest burden of diabetes and are often the most affected financially.

The burden of diabetes is reflected not only in the increasing numbers of people with diabetes, but also in the growing number of premature deaths due to diabetes. In 2013, roughly half of all deaths due to diabetes in adults were in people under the age of 60, and in less-developed regions like sub-Saharan Africa, that proportion climbs to 75%.

As life expectancy increases, while the infectious disease burden decreases, and development drives rapid changes in lifestyles, it is the developing regions that will see the greatest increases in the burden of diabetes.

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Executive summary IDF’s most recent estimates indicate that 8.3% of adults – 382 million people – have diabetes, and the number of people with the disease is set to rise beyond 592 million in less than 25 years. Yet, with 175 million of cases currently undiagnosed, a vast amount of people with diabetes are progressing towards complications unawares. Moreover, with 80% of the total number affected living in low- and middle-income countries, where the epidemic is gathering pace at alarming rates, the IDF Diabetes Atlas’ latest figures provide a worrying indication of the future impact of diabetes as a major threat to global development.

Executive summary

Diabetes in all its forms imposes unacceptably high human, social and economic costs on countries at all income levels. Since the publication of the first International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas in 2000 successive editions have provided consistent evidence of the continuing growth in rates of diabetes incidence and prevalence worldwide. This 6th edition brings new evidence of the same kind, and carries a bitter but unavoidable message: despite the array of tools at our disposal to tackle the disease – effective drug therapies, advanced technology, ever-improving education and preventive strategies – the battle to protect people from diabetes and its disabling, life-threatening complications is being lost.

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Number of people with diabetes by IDF Region, 2013

Europe EUR

North America and Caribbean NAC

56 M

37 M 35 M Middle East and North Africa MENA

24 M South and Central America SACA

20 M

72 M South-East Asia SEA

Western Pacific WP

138 M

Africa AFR

World

382 M people living with diabetes

46%

undiagnosed

IDF Diabetes Atlas I Sixth edition I 11

World

592 M World

382 M

↗55%

AFR ↗109.1% MENA ↗96.2%

increase

Diabetes is a huge and growing problem, and the costs to society are high and escalating.

people living with diabetes in 2035

increase:

2013

SEA ↗70.6% SACA ↗59.8%

WP ↗46%

NAC ↗37.3% EUR ↗22.4%

2035

What is diabetes?

The three main types of diabetes – type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes –occur when the body cannot produce enough of the hormone insulin or cannot use insulin effectively.

Insulin acts as a key that lets the body’s cells take in glucose and use it as energy.

People with type 1 diabetes, the result of an autoimmune process with very sudden onset, need insulin therapy to survive. Type 2 diabetes, on the other hand, can go unnoticed and undiagnosed for years. In such cases, those affected are unaware

Ins

ul

of the long-term damage being caused by their disease. Gestational diabetes, which appears during pregnancy, can lead to serious health risks to the mother and her infant and increase the risk for developing type 2 diabetes later in life.

All types of diabetes require close collaboration between those affected and their healthcare providers in order to prevent a range of costly, dangerous complications, which can provoke damage to the eyes, kidneys, feet and heart, and, left untreated, result in early death.

in

cells cells

Normal situation

gl

ose uc

pancreas

cells

Insulin

cells

Type 1 diabetes

gl

ose uc

pancreas

blood

Ins

Type 2 diabetes gestational diabetes

12 I IDF Diabetes Atlas I Sixth edition

ul

in

cells cells

gl pancreas

ose uc blood

Top 10 countries/territories for prevalence* (%) of diabetes (20-79 years), 2013 * comparative prevalence Middle East and North Africa kuwait

Western Pacific

23%

35%

24% saudi arabia

qatar

23%

35%

Marshall Islands

Federated States of Micronesia

29%

37% 23%

kiribati

Tokelau

Executive summary

Nauru

Cook Islands vanuatu

26%

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24%

The Global Burden The majority of the 382 million people with diabetes are aged between 40 and 59, and 80% of them live in low- and middle-income countries. All types of diabetes are on the increase, type 2 diabetes in particular: the number of people with diabetes will increase by 55% by 2035.

An additional 21 million cases of high blood glucose in pregnancy are estimated to contribute to the global burden of diabetes. That is equivalent to 17% of live births to women in 2013 that had some form of high blood glucose in pregnancy.

In human as well as financial terms, the burden of diabetes is enormous, provoking 5.1 million deaths and taking up some USD 548 billion dollars in health spending (11% of the total spent worldwide) in 2013.

More than 21 million live births were affected by diabetes during pregnancy in 2013.

Top 10 countries / territories of number of people with diabetes (20-79 years), 2013 98.4

China

65.1

India

24.4

USA Brazil

11.9

Russian Federation

10.9

Mexico

8.7

Indonesia

8.5

Germany

7.6

Egypt

7.5

Japan

7.2 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 100

Millions

IDF Diabetes Atlas I Sixth edition I 13

Global health expenditure due to diabetes (20-79 years)

$

548 billion USD

2013

$

$

627 billion USD

Diabetes caused 5.1 million deaths in 2013. Every six seconds a person dies from diabetes.

2035

Regional overviews

The outlook is similarly worrying in South and Central America, where the diabetes population is projected to increase by 60% by 2035. Rapid development has driven a fast-growing epidemic of diabetes in South-East Asia, accounting for close to

56 M

37 M

cases

35 M 20 M

72 M

138 M

24 M

Number of people with diabetes (20-79 years), 2013

14 I IDF Diabetes Atlas I Sixth edition

one-fifth of all cases worldwide. Similarly, wealth and development in the Middle East and North Africa has led to high proportions of diabetes where one in ten adults in the region have the disease.

A look at health spending on diabetes by region reveals huge disparities in responses to the epidemic. Two regions spent more on diabetes than the rest of the regions put together: North America and Caribbean, with an estimated USD 263 billion – equal to nearly half the world’s health expenditure on diabetes; and Europe with USD 147 billion. Despite their growing diabetes populations, spending in South-East Asia and Africa accounted for less than 1% of all global health expenditure on the disease.

undiagnosed

Different regions are being affected to widely differing degrees. With more than 138 million people affected, the Western Pacific has more people with diabetes than any other region. At the other end of the regional diabetes ranking, Africa’s diabetes population is currently the smallest among the regions. However, this is set to double by 2035, and, ominously for Africa’s capacity to develop, more than three-quarters of deaths from diabetes in 2013 occurred in people under 60 – that is to say, in their prime productive years.

36%

27%

48% 24%

49%

62%

Proportion of cases of diabetes (20-79 years) that are undiagnosed, 2013

54%

IDF Regions and global projections of the number of people with diabetes (20-79 years), 2013 and 2035

EUROPE EUR

NORTH AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN NAC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MENA

WESTERN PACIFIC WP

SOUTH-EAST ASIA SEA AFRICA AFR

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA SACA

2013 MILLIONS

2035 MILLIONS

INCREASE %

Africa

19.8

41.4

109%

Middle East and North Africa

34.6

67.9

96%

South-East Asia

72.1

123

71%

South and Central America

24.1

38.5

60%

138.2

201.8

46%

North America and Caribbean

36.7

50.4

37%

Europe

56.3

68.9

22%

381.8

591.9

55%

Western Pacific

mortality <60

World

2 28%

38%

50% 55% 44%

76%

Proportion of deaths due to diabetes in people under 60 years of age, 2013

44%

expenditures

IDF REGION

263 B

147 B 14 B

6B

88 B 4B

26 B

Health expenditure (USD) due to diabetes (20-79 years), 2013

IDF Diabetes Atlas I Sixth edition I 15

Global issues in diabetes Despite the predominantly urban impact of the epidemic, type 2 diabetes is fast becoming a major health concern in rural communities in low- and middle-income countries.

No countries are escaping the diabetes epidemic, and in states and territories worldwide it is the poor and disadvantaged who are suffering most.

Indigenous communities are among those especially vulnerable to diabetes.

Indigenous peoples are especially vulnerable to diabetes.

prevalence

Prevalence (%) of diabetes (20-79 years) by income group and age

High-income

Upper middle-income

Lower middle-income

Low-income

%%% % % 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 00000 age age (years) age (years) (years) age age (years) (years)

All nations – rich and poor – are suffering age age (years) age (years) (years) age age (years) (years) the impact of the diabetes epidemic.

80%

of people with diabetes live in low- and middleincome countries

20-39 20-39 20-39 20-39 20-39

16 I IDF Diabetes Atlas I Sixth edition

40-59 40-59 40-59 40-59 40-59

60-79 60-79 60-79 60-79 60-79

Linking local to global

As a leading supporter of people and organisations working in diabetes education and care, IDF produces educational resources designed to improve the expertise of diabetes educators and other healthcare professionals. IDF publications are used widely around the world, and the Federation’s programmes, campaigns and events provide a global awareness-raising platform for people with diabetes and those at risk.

09/2014 14/11

World diabetes day

UN Highlevel Review of the Political Declaration on NCDs

2-6/12

World diabetes congress

November

December

September

2013

Resources and solutions The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) is an umbrella organisation of over 200 national diabetes associations in more than 160 countries.

It represents the interests of the growing number of people with diabetes and those at risk. The Federation has been leading the global diabetes community since 1950. IDF’s mission is to promote diabetes care, prevention and a cure worldwide.

IDF is committed to promoting best practice in diabetes through guidelines, position statements, and tools for health professionals to improve the lives of people with diabetes.

14/11

World diabetes day October

November

09/2015 Millennium Development Goals Summit September

2014

2015

Executive summary

Diabetes is more than a health issue and requires concerted policy action across many sectors.

in the post-2015 development framework, the Federation is heading a campaign for an all-ofsociety approach to diabetes prevention, care and support.

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IDF plays a pivotal role in efforts to reduce exponentially the global impact of diabetes, catalysing grass roots activism, influencing global health and development policy, and driving the global agenda on diabetes. In calling for a specific health target

There are solutions for managing and curbing the diabetes epidemic.

IDF is the legitimate

voice

of people with diabetes

IDF Diabetes Atlas I Sixth edition I 17

IDF Diabetes Atlas – Sixth edition and other publications are available from: International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Chaussée de La Hulpe 166 B–1170 Brussels I Belgium Tel +32 (0)2 538 55 11 Fax +32 (0)2 538 51 14 idf@idf.org I www.idf.org