7 minute read
Chart Your Own Course, india
ukrainian president Zelensky, French president macron and russian president putin
As Russia braces for a long-drawn war in Ukraine, New Delhi need not be perturbed by the West’s criticism of not being overtly critical of Putin’s aggression. The failure of Russia will be a big blow to India’s strategic autonomy and leave the vast Eurasian space for China to dominate
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By vinay Shukla
I
n the fog of war and powerful Western information warfare, hardly any substantial gains seem visible of more than sixty days of the Kremlin’s ‘special military operation.’ But there is a deeper understanding in Moscow that it would be a drawn out war with the United States-led collective West in battlefield Ukraine.
The sinking of Moskva, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet’s flagship guided missile cruiser, on April 14 resulted in the sharp escalation of Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian military installations, arms depots and ammunition dumps. The aggression extended to western borders in close vicinity of NATO members Poland and Slovakia from where uninterrupted arms supplies are being made to the Kiev regime of President Volodymyr Zelinsky, who is clearly working not for protecting his fellow citizens but urging his Western promoters to pour more aid with the singular aim to discredit and weaken Putin’s Russia.
With the rapid advance of Russian armoured columns from the territory of Belarus towards capital Kiev and from Belgorod towards major industrial city of Kharkiv, it looked a cake walk for the Kremlin, especially when they were met with Ukrainian tanks with barrels lifted up and local residents in rural areas welcoming invading troops with red
flags of Soviet Union – although these scenes have been censored by West controlled mainstream media.
However, in the outskirts of Kiev (Irpen, Bucha and Brovary), NATO trained ultranationalists from Azov battalions and foreign mercenaries aided by US, UK provided real time intelligence and posed a stiff resistance to Russia using civilians as shields.
Of course, many Russians, some of which initially participated in anti-war protests across the country, now believe that their country has been trapped and will be forced to fight a proxy war with the West for years to come. Slowly, the people are beginning to rally behind President Putin as there is a growing understanding that the whole Ukraine crisis is being stoked by the Anglo-Americans to destroy Russia, which poses greater threat to Pax Americana than China where the West has parked its money and would not mind even if Beijing takes over Taiwan because they have officially subscribed to one China policy. Even the Chinese companies, which were seen as a conduit to access, are refusing or hesitant in dealing with Russia to insulate them from secondary sanctions.
ChaLLenGe For IndIa
In spite of massive western pressure on New Delhi to change its policy over Russia, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks unmoved. India has been picked as Western target for criticism of encouraging Putin’s war against innocent Ukraine, but nobody is openly pointing a finger at NATO member Turkey and America’s buddy Israel for not joining anti-Russia sanctions. Their airlines are flying to Moscow to ferry thousands of Russian tourists to warm seaside resorts, while recently privatised Air India has suspended Moscow flights
the russian emissary who loved india
india lost a genuine friend with the sad demise of the former director of sluzhba vneshney Razvedki (svR) or Russian Foreign intelligence service, General vyacheslav ivanovich Trubnikov. after his retirement, Trubnikov was deputy Foreign Minister and subsequently Moscow’s ambassador in new delhi. "The Foreign intelligence service of the Russian Federation regrets to announce that on april 18, 2022, the hero of Russia, retired army general, veteran of the Foreign intelligence service vyacheslav ivanovich Trubnikov passed away. The leadership and staff of the Russian Foreign intelligence service express their sincere condolences to the family and friends of vyacheslav ivanovich. Blessed memory of him forever will remain in our hearts," the svR press bureau release said. vyacheslav Trubnikov after graduation from Moscow state institute of international Relations for training soviet diplomats, joined kGB’s foreign intelligence arm PGU and was posted to india as correspondent for the novosti news agency. Fluent in english and hindi, he wrote a huge number of articles and dispatches widely published in the former soviet Union and became a handbook for researchers of the multi-party indian democratic system. in a conversion with the author on the sidelines of a conference in new delhi in 2018, Trubnikov shared some of his memories about the Bangladesh liberation war. When correspondents from the global media had converged for months in kolkata, due to his access to confidential info, he was aware that the operation will start only after snow blocks the himalayan passes, so that China could not intervene to help its all weather ally Pakistan and the soviet navy was ready to deter Us 7th Fleet task force led by aircraft carrier Uss enterprise from intimidating indian navy. as deputy director and subsequently taking over command of svR from his successor Yevgeny Primakov when later was appointed foreign minister in a radical policy shift by President Boris Yeltsin, Trubnikov had played a key role in clearing major defence projects including development and production of unique supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles, arihant class nuclear ballistic missile submarines and aircraft carrier vikrant. The kremlin was hesitating due to the possibility of american pressure as Washington was averse to granting india access to technologies allegedly in violation of non-proliferation norms.
“i came to President Boris Yeltsin with missile (BrahMos) and nuclear submarine projects with india for final approval with the report that the svR has no objection and has cleared the deals,” Trubnikov recalled, “Yeltsin looked surprised and asked what the american would say. he, however, immediately approved the anti-ship cruise missile (BrahMos) project and asked to wait a little before approving nuclear submarine project cooperation. Which he ultimately cleared.” after his retirement from active service in 2000, President vladimir Putin appointed Trubnikov to the post of First deputy Foreign Minister incharge of anti-terror cooperation. in 2004-2009, he was posted in new delhi as Russian ambassador. it was in 2009 when all wraps of secrecy were taken off from Moscow’s involvement in the nuclear submarine project that Trubnikov was present with the Russian technical team at the commissioning of ins arihant.
Because of the spy who genuinely loved india, new delhi not only went unpunished by Russia after 1998 nuclear tests but a few months later the two countries signed a civil nuclear deal to build an atomic power plant in kudankulam (Tamil nadu) amid sanctions by the Us and some Western companies. Rest in Peace hero of Russia, General vyacheslav ivanovich Trubnikov, a true friend of india.
–Vinay Shukla
sine die to protect Tata Son’s global business from sanctions.
Some argue that under the Western pressure in Ukraine, the Kremlin will undergo regime change and Putin could be replaced by a pro-West liberal dispensation. There are already signs of such designs. Russia’s entire showbiz and oligarchs have converged in Israel and despite US, UK and EU sanctions, they are freely travelling internationally on the power of Israeli passports.
This is fanning anti-Semitic sentiments in Russia’s traditionally Orthodox Christian mindset and there is no guaranty that ultranationalism would not take a revenge for humiliation of defeat in Ukraine. However, the whole history of India-Russia relations has proved that change of regime and even political system in Moscow, more or less has no impact on India policy vector. Relations grew ever stronger when the Kremlin was in isolation, but whenever it had improved relations with the West, there were hiccups in bilateral hitech cooperation (cryogenic engine technology transfer deal was scuttled under pressure from the Clinton administration).
On receiving a cool response during his Moscow visit immediately after the Soviet collapse in January 1992, former Foreign Secretary JN Dixit had declared that “geopolitical compulsions” will keep the two countries together. The current developments have again proved his prophecy true.
Besides remaining a dependable partner for sharing cutting-edge defence technologies, Russia
prime minister narendra modi with russian president putin
remains a major source of space and nuclear energy technology, hydrocarbons for economy and rare-earth minerals required for military-industrial complex.
It is a mutually beneficial interaction and unlike in the past New Delhi should continue its “India First” policy in relations with Russia, as not only militaryindustrial complex, but also Russian regions have nurtured pro-India sentiments among the population which need to be utilised to balance Russia’s tilt towards China. Exodus of Western multinationals from Russia should be used to populate the void left by them with Indian companies and startups in hi-tech defence sectors. The rupee-rouble track in its new avatar paves the path for mutual development as the failure of Russia will be a big blow to India’s strategic autonomy and leave the vast Eurasian space for China to dominate.
- The writer is a Moscow-based independent analyst. Views are personal.
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