Oil Spill Modelling Services Modelling can be vital in both oil spill preparedness and response activities. Specialised computer software packages available to Oil Spill Response offer a variety of modelling options to its Members and clients.
Trajectory Model
As with any models their value is entirely reliant on both the quality of data being used and how closely it matches the prevailing conditions at the scene. Modelling can be a very valuable planning tool and when used in combination with in-field surveillance, can act as a powerful response tool. Structure & Systems Oil Spill Response currently operates two oil spill computer software systems: • •
OSIS (Oil Spill Information System) developed by BMT Cordah Ltd OILMAP developed by ASA
Both systems work by synthesising information from a variety of sources, encompassing weather, tides and currents, sea state, winds and ambient temperatures, together with the size of the spill and the oil type involved. Outputs may include visual illustrations of potential impact areas, oil weathering profiles and mass balance data. Stochastic Model
Application Stochastic / Probability Model
Modelling is often used in response situations in conjunction with surveillance
Modelling can be vital in both oil spill preparedness and response activities.
Back-track / Hind-cast
• This approach is used to predict the probability of where an oil spill may impact for defined time periods.
• Used to predict the movement of an oil spill on the sea surface, based on specific circumstances.
• Similar to trajectory modelling, but this runs scenarios in reverse to predict where an oil spill may have originated.
• Mainly used during the contingency planning process to develop a range of possible planning scenarios based on historical metocean data.
• Often used, in conjunction with infield surveillance, to help plan response strategies and actions during actual oil spill incidents.
• Offer a valuable means to investigate spills of an unknown origin for regulatory authorities and the oil industry.
www.oilspillresponse.com DECEMBER 2008
Trajectory / Deterministic
• Commonly used in conjunction with the stochastic models in contingency planning.
Oil Spill Modelling Services
Benefits • Develop a range of oil spill planning scenarios • Rapid prediction tool for response • Excellent learning aid in training courses and exercises • Clear visual presentation suitable for a variety of audiences including government, local authorities, oil companies and general public • Support investigation of spills with an unknown origin
Trajectory Model
Information Requirements To run a model, the following data is needed: • Spill co-ordinates • Oil type and characteristics • Date and time of spill • Metocean parameters • Modelling output requirements An Oil Spill Modelling Request Form is available upon request.
Limitations The models are run by experienced Oil Spill Response operators who can recognise the models’ limitations and make appropriate interpretation. Key data restrictions include: •
• Stochastic Model
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The databases of oil types may not have an exact match for the specific oil spilled, but additional analysis work can allow a particular oil to be entered Quality of tide and current data varies between regions and models Stochastic wind data may not match the prevailing conditions during an actual spill event
Oil Spill Response Offers
The models are run by experienced Oil Spill Response operators who can recognise the models’ limitations and make appropriate interpretation.
Oil spill modelling in practice in the Operations Room
Quality and Value
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OSIS / OILMAP modelling
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State of the art computer models
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Oil fate analysis
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24-hour response modelling
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Trajectory modelling
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Stochastic modelling
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Back-track modelling
support service •
Fully trained and experienced personnel
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Comprehensive reporting and interpretation
For further information on this service please contact: modelling@oilspillresponse.com Southampton
Singapore
Bahrain
London (Head Office)
Aberdeen
Lower William Street
2 Jalan Samulun
P O Box 54211
1 Great Cumberland Place
Marine House Blaikies Quay
Southampton SO14 5QE
Singapore 629120
Mahazza
London W1H 7AL
Aberdeen AB11 5EZ
United Kingdom
Tel:
+65 6266 1566
Kingdom of Bahrain
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Tel:
+44 (0)23 8033 1551
Fax:
+65 6266 2312
Tel:
Tel:
+44 (0)20 7724 0102
Tel:
Fax:
+44 (0)23 8033 1972
E-mail:
Fax: +973 1773 0058
Fax:
+44 (0)20 7724 0103
Fax: +44 (0)1224 72 6860
singapore@oilspillresponse.com
E-mail:
E-mail:
E-mail:
bahrain@oilspillresponse.com
london@oilspillresponse.com
aberdeen@oilspillresponse.com
E-mail: southampton@oilspillresponse.com
www.oilspillresponse.com DECEMBER 2008
+973 1773 0961
+44 (0)1224 72 6859