Editorial: Lessons to Learn in Adapting to Market Uncertainty. Limitation of Perspective, Balance of Feedback, and Experimenting Along the Way
In our first RDC Magazine issue (Purcarea, 2010) we wrote about information, knowledge, education and culture, and invited the subscribers, advisory committee members, associate editors and the reviewers to take full advantage of this opportunity to contribute to a great agenda of sharing results by bringing confidence in critical times. We also expressed the belief that we will move forward thanks to their spirit of exploration, focus, innovation and consistency Three years later, we used the following starting question: “If the art of creating the brand can do better, could we all in the “global community” do better?” Within this framework we showed that: “We communicate more and more, and in different ways. We are talking increasingly more and more about our rights, and less about our responsibilities. And when we talk about the responsibilities, we are doing so looking more at other people, all of us knowing that the world is being shaped by ideas and by the way we are habituated to perceive. We watch, comment and act by imitating more, with more or less discernment in the context of information bombardment to which we are subject… On the other hand, we all know that, in the end, our life won’t change until we want it to change” (Purcarea, 2013).
In November 2022, Colin Shaw, a LinkedIn ‘Top Voice’ & influencer Customer Experience & Marketing, as well a Financial Times Award Leading Consultancy 4 Straight Years, described the current environment as “very stressful, with many things you cannot
control, which makes a few things on the path forward uncertain” . He explained how after putting a poll question on LinkedIn received extremely interesting answers, as shown in figure below.
Figure no. 1: Poll question on LinkedIn: “What are you expecting the business environment will be over the next year?”
Source: Shaw, C., 2022. In an Increasingly MAD World, Here Are 5 Rules for Managing Uncertainty, LinkedIn Newsletter series, Tue, Nov 15, 6:57 PM (work cited)
Consequently, Shaw launched the invitation to talk about the way of managing uncertainty based on five rules (Recognize uncertainty is uncomfortable; Remember, the upside of uncertainty is that it provides opportunity; Control the controllable; Be alerted to be prepared; Hope for the best and plan for the worst), saying in conclusion that: “If you can look at things from a positive perspective and see things differently, you could come out even better on the other side. ”
In the same month, a study by Insider Intelligence (Goldman, 2022) underlined that marketing leaders are being forced to adapt to market uncertainty by both shifting priorities, and embrace agility. This need of having a better ability to think and understand quickly is determined by their marketing priorities (marketing systems/technology, digital transformation, advertising and customer insights/data, and customer loyalty) and necessary channel investments (social media advertising, display and online video advertising, mobile app, website, and e-mail being the most critical customer touchpoints for marketing departments in 2023, as in 2022)
With regard to metaverse, it is interesting to note that more than one in five respondents (22%) believe it will be a major focus (as channel investments) in 2023, a significant increase compared to 2022 (9%). And from the point of view of US marketing leaders’ expectations concerning the macroeconomic/market developments with the most impact on their business in 2023 we can see in figure below that inflation is placed in the first position.
Figure no. 2: Macroeconomic/Market Developments US Marketing Leaders Expect to Have the Most Impact on Their Businesses in 2023
Source: Goldman, J., 2022. Marketing leaders are somewhat optimistic about the economy, but they are being forced to adapt to market uncertainty, Insider Intelligence, Nov 23, 2022 (work cited)
To navigate rising inflation, European retailers, for instance, can set up according to McKinsey’s representatives (Bright et al., 2022) a control tower (a so-called centralized “inflation management office”) acting on commercial effectiveness, resilience in supply chain and sourcing, and productivity in general and administrative functions (based on a longer-term action plan, of course).
And as consumers are dramatically impacted by inflation (Hamstra, 2022), it is imperative to pay attention to the already changed shopping behaviors. As revealed by McKinsey’s research (Bazzoni et al., 2022), a quest for better value for money and better prices/promotions (see figure below) represent an obvious aspect of changed shopping behavior (because of consumers’ need for more affordable both brands, and retailers).
Figure no. 3: Better prices/promotions and better value for money consistently are key reasons for switching brands
Source: Bazzoni, E., Mijer, M., Jacob, M., Welchering, S., Land, S. and Moulton, J., 2022. European consumer pessimism intensifies in the face of rising prices, McKinsey & Company Growth, Marketing & Sales Insights, Survey, October 27, 2022 (work cited)
In the summer this year, Preet Banerjee, a behavioral finance expert, showed how difficult was to precisely predict what’s happening today, inflation being, for example, a consequence of a number of factors coming together immediately (Speakers' Spotlight, 2022). On the other hand, as very recently shown by Retail Brew (Newman, 2022), when consumers notice a product has been shrinkflated (downsized) they choose a different brand (48% of respondents, according to an August report by Morning Consult), and that within the context in which #shrinkflation videos on TikTok collected more than 296 million views, while on the social media website Reddit a shrinkflation subreddit (online community & posts associated with it) has more than 44,900 members.
Focused on effective leadership in difficult times, Christian Harrison (2022) underlined how vital in good leaders is to question the way things are done and make teams think in new ways (including by using mind-mapping, brainstorming and gamification) about existing challenges. Six years ago, Leigh Thompson, Professor of Management & Organizations, and Director of Kellogg Team and Group Research Center was cited for saying: “When team members are thinking through different possible courses of action, then everybody can be writing cards that talk about a pro and a con. This helps build a balance of feedback Let’s talk about the positives; then let’s talk about the negatives” (Walsh, 2016).
More recently, we read about two great discussions:
• The first one, between Daniel Burstein, Senior Director, Content & Marketing, MarketingSherpa and MECLABS Institute and Jasmin Guthmann, Head of Corporate
Communication, Contentstack, and also Vice President of MACH Alliance (Burstein, 2022). And while talking about getting the marketer in the right mindset to really produce, Guthmann said: “… applying things that you read in books can be hard. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. But an idea that I read and that I then tried out with the team is we start our weekly team meeting with gratefulness exercise.” She made reference to a book that has a particular meaning written by James Clear, and entitled “Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones”. As we also read this book, allow us on our turn to cite a quote from this above-mentioned book: “We all deal with setbacks but in the long run, the quality of our lives often depends on the quality of our habits. With the same habits, you’ll end up with the same results. But with better habits, anything is possible. Maybe there are people who can achieve incredible success overnight. I don’t know any of them, and I’m certainly not one of them… What I offer you is a synthesis of the best ideas smart people figured out a long time ago as well as the most compelling discoveries scientists have made recently. My contribution, I hope, is to find the ideas that matter most and connect them in a way that is highly actionable. Anything wise in these pages you should credit to the many experts who preceded me. Anything foolish, assume it is my error” (Clear, 2018);
• The other one, between Katherine Tam, a member of McKinsey Global Publishing (McKinsey’s New York Office) and the social-change strategist Jacob Harold, the cofounder of Candid (the former CEO of GuideStar), and author of a new book entitled “The Toolbox: Strategies for Crafting Social Impact” , John Wiley & Sons, December 2022 (McKinsey & Company, 2022). From the very beginning, Harold explained how within the context of the current very complicated challenges he made an effort to offer a set of tested tools to build a better world. He underlined the need of better understanding the limitation of perspective of each of us, and stated: Information is a lifeblood of social change, and technology helps to enable that… We have to develop new techniques and a new kind of psychological resilience to handle this… It will play out differently for each person and in each sector. But my hope is that in the social sector, we can capitalize on the power of connection and information while still maintaining fundamental humanity that isn’t mediated by technology… What we can do is keep a sharp eye on how things are evolving. We can experiment along the way. We can learn, change, and pivot. And all through that, we can figure out how to hold onto that fundamental human passion that drives the desire to make a better world. We can do that in a way that is enabled by technology instead of obscured by technology. ”
Without doubt, to build a better world within the above-mentioned current very complicated challenges it is difficult. But let us try to keep it simple along the right way, by keeping in mind that “What is real is not the external form, but the essence of things” (citing again the wise words spoken by the famous Romanian sculptor Constantin Brancusi).
Theodor Valentin Purcărea Editor-in-ChiefBazzoni, E., Mijer, M., Jacob, M., Welchering, S., Land, S. and Moulton, J., 2022. European consumer pessimism intensifies in the face of rising prices, McKinsey & Company Growth, Marketing & Sales Insights, Survey, October 27, 2022. [online] Available at: <https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/growth-marketing-and-sales/our-insights/surveyeuropean-consumer-sentiment-during-the-coronavirus-crisis> [Accessed 9 December 2022].
Bright, K., Ciger, G., Laizet, F., Lauer, K. and Monge, A., 2022. How retailers in Europe can navigate rising inflation, Mckinsey & Company, Retail Insights, December 7, 2022. [online] Available at: <https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/how-retailers-in-europecan-navigate-rising-inflation?> [Accessed 9 December 2022].
Burstein, D., 2022. Corporate Communication and Marketing Innovation: The dangerous delusion of safety – playing it safe can hurt you more than you know (podcast episode #41), MarketingSherpa, December 07, 2022. [online] Available at: <https://www.marketingsherpa.com/article/interview/corporate?> [Accessed 8 December 2022].
Clear, J., 2018. Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones, Publisher: Avery, Illustrated edition, Penguin Random House LLC, New York, October 16, 2018.
Goldman, J., 2022. Marketing leaders are somewhat optimistic about the economy, but they are being forced to adapt to market uncertainty, Insider Intelligence, Nov 23, 2022. [online] Available at: <https://www.insiderintelligence.com/content/marketing-leaders-somewhatoptimistic-about-economy-they-being-forced-adapt-market-uncertainty?> [Accessed 25 November 2022].
Hamstra, M., 2022. Inflation dramatically impacting shoppers: Survey, Supermarket News, Dec 08, 2022. [online] Available at: <https://www.supermarketnews.com/retail-financial/inflationdramatically-impacting-shoppers-survey> [Accessed 9 December 2022].
Harrison, C., 2022. Five rules for effective leadership in difficult times, The Conversation, January 24, 2022. [online] Available at: <https://theconversation.com/five-rules-for-effectiveleadership-in-difficult-times-174948> [Accessed 27 December 2022].
McKinsey & Company, 2022, pp. 1-2, 7. Author Talks: A toolbox for social change. [pdf] Jacob Harold interviewed by Katherine Tam, McKinsey Global Publishing, December 22, 2022. Available at: <Jacob Harold _ The Toolbox _ McKinsey Author Talks _ McKinsey> [Accessed 23 December 2022].
Newman, A.A., 2022. Retail Word of the Year: Shrinkflation, Retail Brew, December 22, 2022. [online] Available at: <https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2022/12/21/retail-word-of-the-yearshrinkflation? > [Accessed 22 December 2022].
Purcarea, T., 2010. Editorial: An invitation to maturing interdisciplinary dialogue and to becoming architects of conversations generating responsible action, Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, vol. 1(1), pp. 01-03, August.
Purcarea, T., 2013. Editorial: If the art of creating the brand can do better, could we all in the global community do better? Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, vol. 4(3), pp. 1-3, September.
Shaw, C., 2022. In an Increasingly MAD World, Here Are 5 Rules for Managing Uncertainty, LinkedIn Newsletter series, Tue, Nov 15, 6:57 PM.
Speakers' Spotlight, 2022. Behavioural Finance Expert Preet Banerjee’s Guide to Fighting Inflation, July 27, 2022. [online] Available at: <https://www.speakers.ca/2022/07/behaviouralfinance-expert-preet-banerjees-guide-to-fighting-inflation/> [Accessed 27 December 2022].
Walsh, D., 2016. 5 Strategies for Leading a High-Impact Team, Kellogg Insight, Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, Careers, Leadership, Jul 1 2016. [online] Available at: <https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/five-strategies-for-leading-a-high-impactteam?> [Accessed 6 November 2022].
Abstract
The paper analyses the context of the increasing complexity of World evolutions, now manifesting by the multi-crises we began to face and suffer from, which leads to unpredictable challenges for our ecosystem, resulting from unprecedently complicated and unsustainable processes of this system, as we could count here the climate changes, social and geopolitical unbalances or Earth resources fading. Along with such premises, largely known, we consider, for a more efficacy approach, to also include the role of humankind nature/behaviour and evolution along with these processes, in order to find how we have arrived to this point/level of dramatism at Earth scale and the ways toward appropriate solutions. We believe that, usually, the larger the humankind power, the probability of going to unsafe/unsustainable directions, or even failing the target, is slightly increasing. More than these, from a long history, we know that humankind potential has a dual face: to construct and to destroy. As a matter of fact, we consider that, generally, the fundamental problem of humankind evolution was and remain just our ability to balance this duality for a sustainable/constructive progress, but here the news is that the actual levels of power, complexity and Earth resources, which humankind could use, arrived in a critical combination of parameters. This actual critical combination could be seen like a very sharp sword, for which the technology provided highly strong materials but humankind decisions positive potential, in spite of the science unprecedented progress, is highly impaired by the highly complex and complicated processes of Earth ecosystem. For a more realistic image of the factors to be approached for an optimization analysis, when estimating the actual premises, we consider to count perhaps the most influent, but difficult to control factors of the aimed balance: the ever changing/subjective role of human personality and the crucial multiplying role of technology, where information and communication technology (ICT) is the most prevailing. We think that the education is the main way to change the people toward a better World and the combination of human intelligence (HI) and artificial intelligence (AI), we already approached [6][9], is and will be more and more linked with ICT sustainable development. Among the few certainties of the new normality, we are looking for, the necessity of new paradigms for a multicriteria approach, along with the relativity of any optimization solution in a complex, complicate and interconnected Earth ecosystem of highly dynamic processes, should be included
Developing information and communications technology to provide more intelligence and leverage more wisdom for a dramatically changing World
As relevant ICT advances, AI is the most complex and also promising, but any optimization should address both measuring and metrics, which are real challenges to define and design for the complex and complicate subsystems of Earth ecosystem, especially for those parts of the processes where ICT/AI is largely involved. Addressing these issues, the paper analyses a comprehensible example for the multi-criteria approach and the relativity of AI development optimization [1], approaching both AI measuring and metric. Although, apparently, the main issue and criteria of the optimization is energy efficiency (among the most important performance parameter for present and future ICT systems), for AI unprecedented advances and expansion this is far from being enough to be considered, especially because of the inherent diversity and complexity of the potential AI applications World-wide. Beyond competition aspects, we noticed the technology advances implications, as AI accelerator chips, which could make the difference in certain areas of applications. Even with such complex AI benchmarks, in the actual dynamic ICT/AI context, it is very difficult to generally optimize/rank the technology advances, but they still provide means to evaluate the typical applications performance differences. Another analysed example, also presenting systemic covering and relevance at Earth scale, referred to the implications of developing safe ICT applications for the huge industry of modern cars, aiming the proper protection/reliability against cyberattacks [2]. The crucial importance of cars industry must be also understood in the crises emergent context, but inherently from multi-criteria point of view (sustainability, energy, reliability, security etc.), being a special part of World critical infrastructure/services. The complex dependence on ICT was proved, this way, more than obvious and highly increasing, in the Earth ecosystem expansion, generating more complex challenges at different levels of development, even when considering the standardization at the United Nations (UN) level, which is surely more and more necessary, as the diversity and complexity increase in every industry. From the resulted list of requirements for achieving a proper protection/reliability against cyberattacks, we could notice that optimizing such complex and dynamic industry/domain is involving a lot of interdependent processes, along with associated human inputs/outputs which are surely relative and time sensitive factors.
Further, we noticed that the ICT optimal development analyses should be extended by deeper refining of context knowledge and multi-criteria optimization at Earth scale and humankind behaviour level. Using one of the special features of ICT development, we consider that a systemic approach should include the proper information management in order to maximize the efficacy and efficiency of optimization analyses, i.e., to refine knowledge in a continuously manner regarding the multi - crises challenges implications on short and long term, but taking into account the unprecedented high level of incertitude and changing which must alter the actual paradigms of development.
There are many lessons to be learned from the cars example/case, as the modern car (especially the emerging self-driving one), along with the smartphone, are perhaps the most relevant symbols of humankind technology progress, where ICT advances impact is more than essential. Still, the protection of modern cars, although a planetary issue with dynamic challenges, considering the increasing complexity and the extended proliferation, is only a facet of World picture, but still relevant here by the impact of ICT involved applications and their fast advances. In fact, all the World seems to be a fast and complicated car, moving still faster by the ICT impact, but sometimes we wonder where to and which are the chances to safely get there! Recalling the mentioned essential role of the proper information management in the modern cars huge industry, the information context and risk factors evaluation must be also considered, for intelligent cars, but also for the rest of the World led by ICT advances. Finally, concrete ways to attend the needed target in the complicate and changing environment of hostile factors could be found by practical sets of measures which should be followed and continuously improved in processes of check and act type.
Paper analysis, which aimed more general and large covering approaches, using the ICT potential at Earth ecosystem scale, also considered the comprehensive frame of the information security standard, given by ISO 27001, the world's best-known standard for information security management systems (ISMS), which provides a coherent and holistic approach (meaning that the entire organization is covered, not just IT [4]), i.e., here we have the evidence that the link between information and all the Earth ecosystem is essential, real and functional, as the information is the operational element of the systemic approach. This way, the understanding of refining knowledge, i.e., the highest way/level of benefit from information, is clear, as we have to approach introspections on how the most complex actual challenges could be identified and step by step treated using actual data/information/knowledge, new models and innovation.
Finally, for the considered ICT role in the World dramatic/crises context and emergence, the analyses must be further focused on testing the resilience of the associated complex systems, i.e., the appropriate models of the Earth ecosystem context. This way, engineering and designing complex and interconnected systems become a major goal of the actual ICT development, as resulted from another relevant example [5].
As seen in the case of modern cars industry, testing procedures are not enough if the knowledge is not continuously refined, i.e., using actual data, new paradigms and human innovation/imagination. In concrete approaches, refining knowledge means that we have to change paradigm, use data of actual crises and challenges, along with needed support.
Along with these technical/logical ingredients, in order to get wisdom solutions, perhaps the most difficult of them is to identify and introduce those human weighting factors (as behaviors) that meet the wisdom which corresponds to the actual context and provides the sustainable evolution and sometimes even the surviving requirements for the Earth ecosystem and humankind progress, as it is, indirectly, confirmed by[5] too, where a ray of hope could be imagined, as there exists an inherent ability to survive and bounce back, but, in addition, we should also consider the need to be in natural ecosystems, i.e., to benefit from their potential of adapting and surviving. Practically, using also the huge potential of AI/ICT, we have to count our differences versus a natural ecosystem and mitigate the consequences, focusing on climate changes, Earth resources fading etc
As main conclusion, we consider that, for meeting “wisdom”, in such complex and dramatic World context we live in, deeper and timely analyses should continue, keeping in mind the necessity to achieve what it seems that we have lost: the (natural) chances of our Earth ecosystem to adapt and survive
Keywords: artificial intelligence performance, cybersecurity, modern cars, refining knowledge, accelerator chips, ISO/IEC 27001, resilience of complex systems
JEL Classification: L63; L86; M15; O31; O33
Knowing yourself is the beginning of all wisdom ― Aristotle
1. Watching ICT advances through the new dramatical World challenges
After decades of wondering about technology amazing progress, our expectations from future, which is becoming more and more uncertain, tend to prevail upon the usual benefits and comfort we are used to be with.
Such impressions are most probably determined by the role of the increasing complexity of World evolutions, now manifesting by the multi-crises we began to face and suffer from [3].
The role of complexity in the unpredictable World evolution is mainly linked with the evolution of our ecosystem, resulting from unprecedently complicated and unsustainable processes of this system, as we could count here the climate changes, social and geopolitical unbalances or Earth resources fading (we also earlier approached [11][12]).
As such premises were largely known, without saying that their analysis is no more necessary (on contrary), we consider, for a more efficacy approach, to also include the role of humankind nature/behaviour and evolution along with these processes.
In fact, it is not rarely when people say: How all these became possible? How we have arrived to this point/level of dramatism at Earth scale?
It is sure that the answers are not simple, but also the questions could be …many more. Here we have to count not only the Covid 19 pandemic or Russia’s aggression context, but all their consequences and correlations with the prior premises of Earth ecosystem and humankind evolution, where climate changes, Earth resources fading or energy crisis were iceberg tips to be ... properly considered!
We believe that, usually, the larger the humankind power, the probability of going to unsafe/unsustainable directions, or even failing the target, is slightly increasing.
Although it is not new, from a long history, we know that humankind potential has a dual face: to construct and to destroy.
As a matter of fact, we consider that, generally, the fundamental problem of humankind evolution was and remain just our ability to balance this duality for a sustainable/constructive
progress, but here the news is that the actual levels of power, complexity and Earth resources, which humankind could use, arrived in a critical combination of parameters
With other words, this actual critical combination is just like a very sharp sword, for which the technology provided highly strong materials but humankind decisions positive potential, in spite of the science unprecedented progress, is highly impaired by the highly complex and complicated processes of Earth ecosystem.
In order to have a more realistic image of the factors to be approached for an optimization analysis, when estimating the actual premises, we consider to count perhaps the most influent, but difficult to control factors of the aimed balance: the ever changing/subjective role of human personality and the crucial multiplying role of technology, where information and communication technology (ICT) is the most prevailing.
More than these, the proliferation of ICT and its amazing expansion at Earth scale became the main driving factor of the human society by the complex consequences of ICT services, products and applications when supporting the Information Society (IS) on the way towards the Knowledge Based Society (KBS) [13][10][7][14][16][17][12].
This way we have just arrived to the point where the role of ICT in optimizing the Earth ecosystem and humankind evolution, aiming a sustainable World progress in the new dramatical context, is obviously crucial but the expected solutions are still faraway.
As the ever changing/subjective role of human personality in the decision processes (generally in governance) is, in its turn, related to the complex premises of education and human nature, its analysis would be perhaps an even more difficult issue, exceeding our paper aim, although most of people think that the World evolution is depending on leaders quality.
On the other side, we consider that the education is the main way to change the people towardabetterWorldandthecombinationofhumanintelligence(HI)andartificial intelligence (AI), we already approached [6][9], is and will be more and more linked with ICT sustainable development.
Among the few certainties of the new normality, we are looking for, the necessity of new paradigms for a multicriteria approach, along with the relativity of any optimization solution in a complex, complicate and interconnected Earth ecosystem of highly dynamic processes, should be included
For a concrete and realistic picture of this context of ICT sustainable development, we consider that among the relevant ICT advances, AI is the most complex but also promising. Further, any optimization should address both measuring and metrics, which are real challenges to define and design for the complex and complicate subsystems of Earth ecosystem, but especially for those parts of the processes where ICT is largely involved.
A comprehensible example for the multi-criteria approach and the relativity of AI development optimization, is step by step and concretely presented by [1]:
“… AI industry group MLCommons released a new set of results for AI performance. The new list, MLPerf Version 1.1, follows the first official set of benchmarks by five months and includes more than 1800 results from 20 organizations, with 350 measurements of energy efficiency. The majority of systems improved by between 5-30 percent from earlier this year, with some more than doubling their previous performance stats, according to MLCommons. The new results come on the heels of the announcement, last week, of a new machine-learning benchmark, called TCP-AIx”.
Although,apparently,themainissueandcriteriaoftheoptimizationis energy efficiency (among the most important performance parameter for present and future ICT systems), for AI unprecedented advances and expansion this is far from being enough to be considered, especially because of the inherent diversity and complexity of the potential AI applications Worldwide:
“
In MLPerf's inferencing benchmarks, systems made up of combinations of CPUs and GPUs or other accelerator chips are tested on up to six neural networks performing a variety of common functions image classification, object detection, speech recognition, 3D medical imaging, natural language processing, and recommendation. For commercially available data center-based systems they were tested under two conditions a simulation of real data center activity where queries arrive in bursts and "offline" activity where all the data is available at once. Computers meant to work onsite instead of in the data center what MLPerf calls the edge were measured in the offline state and as if they were receiving a single stream of data, such as from a security camera.”
Step by step, the above-mentioned complexity and expansion of ICT/AI applications are concretely revealed and practically considered in the measuring processes and this way the appropriate metrics are suggested for the multi-criteria approach of AI development optimization:
“Although there were datacenter-class submissions from Dell, HPE, Inspur, Intel, LTech Korea, Lenovo, Nvidia, Neuchips, Qualcomm, and others, all but those from Qualcomm and Neuchips used Nvidia AI accelerator chips. Intel used no accelerator chip at all, instead demonstrating the performance of its CPUs alone. Neuchips only participated in the recommendation benchmark, as their accelerator, the RecAccel, is designed specifically to speed up recommender systems which are used for recommending e-commerce items and for ranking search results.
Beyond competition aspects, we observe the technology advances implications, as AI accelerator chips, which could make the difference in certain areas of applications:
“
For the results Nvidia submitted itself, the company used software improvements alone to eke out as much as a 50 percent performance improvement over the past year. The systems tested were usually made up of one or two CPUs along with as many as eight accelerators. On a per-accelerator basis, systems with Nvidia A100 accelerators showed about double or more the performance those using the lower-power Nvidia A30. A30-based computers edged out systems based on Qualcomm's Cloud AI 100 in four of six tests in the server scenario. However, Qualcomm senior director of product management John Kehrli points out that his company's accelerators were deliberately limited to a datacenter-friendly 75-watt power envelope per chip, but in the offline image recognition task they still managed to speed past some Nvidia A100-based computers with accelerators that had peak thermal designs of 400 W each.”
Finally, we could notice that even with such complex benchmarks, in the actual dynamic ICT/AI context, it is very difficult to generally optimize/rank the technology advances, but they still provide means to evaluate the typical applications performance differences:
“
With six tests under two conditions each in two commercial categories using systems that vary in number of CPUs and accelerators, MLPerf performance results don't really lend themselves to some kind of simple ordered list like Top500.org achieves with supercomputing.
The parts that come closest are the efficiency tests, which can be boiled down to inferences per second per watt for the offline component. Qualcomm systems were tested for efficiency on object recognition, object detection, and natural language processing in both the datacenter and edge categories. In terms of inferences per second per watt, they beat the Nvidia-backed systems at the machine vision tests, but not on language processing. Nvidia-accelerated systems took all the rest of the spots.”
Another example, also presenting systemic covering and relevance at Earth scale, is referring to the implications of developing safe ICT applications for the huge industry of modern cars, aiming the proper protection/reliability against cyberattacks.
The crucial importance of cars industry must be also understood in the crises emergent context, but inherently from multi-criteria point of view (sustainability, energy, reliability, security etc.), being a special part of World critical infrastructure/services, as it is presented in [2]:
“These days, if something connects to an information stream, it’s vulnerable to cyberattacks. And since modern cars are essentially data centers on wheels, it’s easy to understand why they’ve piqued the interest of hackers. From infotainment systems and engine control units to steering columns and brake lines, almost everything in a vehicle tie into various computer-based subsystems.”
The complex dependence on ICT is then more than obvious and highly increasing, in the Earth ecosystem expansion, generating more complex challenges at different levels of development:
“The trouble is that each system offers multiple footholds for attackers to exploit. But that’s only half the problem. Cars connect over a number of interfaces including USB, CAN bus, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, cellular, and automotive ethernet. These interfaces give cybercriminals a veritable smorgasbord of attack options, making it a nightmare for your engineering and testing teams to secure.”
Perhaps it could not appear among the first solutions, but, for the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), the standardization at the United Nations (UN) level is surely more and more necessary, as the diversity and complexity increase in every industry, but here the impact is quite fundamental:
“
The World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations, UNECE WP.29 is a wide-ranging strategic initiative to bring OEMs into lockstep on various vehicular regulations, from the headlights to the exhaust pipe. In June 2020, WP.29 adopted a new framework to combat cybersecurity risks on passenger vehicles. The group’s work resulted in a pair of regulations instructing automakers to implement measures to:
Manage vehicle cybersecurity risks.
Mitigate risks along the supply chain by securing vehicles in design. Detect and respond to security incidents across the vehicle fleet.
Provide safe, secure software updates that do not compromise vehicle security.
Think of this high-level guidance as a proverbial carrot, while the included regulations are a stick ”
From this impressive list of requirements, we could notice that optimizing such complex and dynamic industry/domain is involving a lot of interdependent processes, along with associated human inputs/outputs which are surely relative and time sensitive factors.
This way we consider that the ICT optimal development analyses should be extended by deeper refining of context knowledge and multi-criteria optimization at Earth scale and humankind behaviour level.
2. The long and complicate ways toward wisdom when refining knowledge at Earth scale, facing multi - crises challenges
Traditionally, when incertitude prevails, wisdom is sometimes associated with keeping the routine/behaviour in thinking and acting, but now the times are changing that approach, as deeply refining knowledge should become mandatory in our fast and turbulently changing World.
After the above examples, it is clear that there is a long and difficult way to exhaustive optimization solutions, this conclusion exceeding, unfortunately, the impact of ICT development or the modern cars industry, as ones of the most dynamic and prolific branches of World economy, which generate huge implications on all humankind activities and evolution.
Using one of the special features of ICT development, we consider that a systemic approach should include the proper information management in order to maximize the efficacy and efficiency of optimization analyses, i.e., to refine knowledge in a continuously manner regarding the multi - crises challenges implications on short and long term, but taking into account the unprecedented high level of incertitude and changing which must alter the actual paradigms of development.
Again, as a very good example, the protection of modern cars, although a planetary issue with dynamic challenges, considering the increasing complexity and the extended proliferation, is only a facet of World picture, but still relevant here by the impact of ICT involved applications and their fast advances.
In fact, all the World seems to be a fast and complicated car, moving still faster by the ICT impact, but sometimes we wonder where to and which are the chances to safely get there!
Anyway, it is sure that there are many lessons to be learned from the cars example/case, as the modern car (especially the emerging self-driving one), along with the smartphone, are perhaps the most relevant symbols of humankind technology progress, where ICT advances impact is more than essential.
Recalling the mentioned essential role of the proper information management in the modern cars huge industry, the information context and risk factors evaluation are also considered by [2] as:
“But for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), cybersecurity is anything but a trivial matter. In fact, a single cyberattack can cost an automaker as much as $1.1 billion.
But the sheer monetary impact isn’t the only thing keeping business leaders up at night. The effects of a cyberattack extend far and wide including potential legal / compliance fines, brand reputation impact, and crippling market capitalization losses…
OEMs must establish and implement a cybersecurity management system (CSMS) that implements risk-driven engineering processes for vehicular components, subsystems, and assemblies.”
Further, the common threat/challenge, for intelligent cars, but also for the rest of the World led by ICT advances, is clearly pointed:
“A good CSMS requires an extensive evaluation of applicable threats which is otherwise known as a Threat Analysis and Risk Assessment (TARA). TARAs enable OEMs to identify, implement, and verify mitigations before pushing fixes to components and systems via software updates. But what if a new threat emerges? Engineering teams need a repeatable response that prioritizes speed and accuracy. A CSMS gives them the tools to promptly evaluate and mitigate emerging threats while ensuring their corrective actions didn't inadvertently expose something else to attack.”
Finally, the concrete ways to attend the needed target in the complicate and changing environment of hostile factors is found:
<<How can automakers fight back against cybercriminals?
Now that the standards are written and the regulations adopted, the next question seems all too obvious. “Where do we go from here?”
Given the state of the threat landscape and the incoming regulations, it’s easy to understand the uncertainty. But ISO / SAE 21434, WP. 29, and UN R155 aren’t a threat. They’re a playbook to beating cybercriminals at their own game. But what does that mean? Well, for automakers, that means attacking your own vehicles before someone else gets the chance. It all comes down to thinking like the enemy. Where a cybercriminal seeks to exploit system and component vulnerabilities, automakers can perform controlled cyberattacks to test vehicular security (in alignment with their CSMS). This practice is generally referred to as automotive penetration testing and encompasses multiple test types including functional cybersecurity testing, fuzz testing, and vulnerability testing.>>
Fromhereit is clearthat practical sets ofmeasures shouldbefollowedandcontinuously improved in processes of check and act type.
On the other side, our analysis, which aims more general and large covering approaches, using the ICTpotential at Earthecosystem scale,haveto considerand benefit from the comprehensive frame of the information security standards.
Thefundamental frameoftheinformation security standards,givenforexamplebyISO 27001, the world's best-known standard for information security management systems (ISMS), provides a coherent and holistic approach, as it is also presented by [4]:
“Organizations that adopt cyber resilience through confident vulnerability quickly emerge as leaders in their industry and set the standard for their ecosystem. The holistic approach of ISO/IEC 27001 means that the entire organization is covered, not just IT. People, technology and processes all benefit.
When you use ISO/IEC 27001, you demonstrate to stakeholders and customers that you are committed to managing information securely and safely. It’s a great way to promote your organization, celebrate your achievements and prove that you can be trusted. “
Although we do not intend to detail the ISO/IEC 27001potential, it is worth to notice that its less visible part is crucial, as “the entire organization is covered, not just IT. People, technology and processes all benefit”, i.e., here we have the evidence that the link between information and all the Earth ecosystem is essential, real and functional, as the information is the operational element of the systemic approach.
Thisway,theunderstandingofrefiningknowledge,i.e.,thehighest way/levelofbenefit from information, is clear, as we have to approach introspections on how the most complex actual challenges could be identified and step by step treated using actual data/information/knowledge, new models and …imagination.
Going beyond the traditional, but fundamental approach of the information security standards, given for example by ISO/IEC 27001, for the considered ICT role in the World dramatic/crises context and emergence, as we already have mentioned [3], the analyses must be further focused on resilience of the associated complex systems, i.e., the appropriate models of the Earth ecosystem context
As we have pointed [16], engineering and designing complex and interconnected systems is becoming a major goal of the actual ICT development and this approach is successfully also presented by [5]:
“
For modern day engineering systems, designing for resilience or testing resilience at the design phase, poses a significant challenge. Due to the interconnectedness and embeddedness of these systems in a nested system of systems [2]–[4], it gets increasingly difficult to adopt the traditional approach of testing a system in isolation for resilience. Here, isolation refers to engaging with stress testing using a restrictive set of prede-termined input parameters and system specific conditions [5].”
Here we have to notice that, as mentioned also in the case of modern cars industry, testing procedures are not enough if the knowledge is not continuously refined, i.e., using actual data, new paradigms and …human innovation/imagination
In concrete approaches, refining knowledge means that we have to change paradigm, use data of actual crises and challenges, along with needed support:
<<Supporting the argument for a need to develop alternative methodologies to approach engineering system resilience, Gheorghe and Katina [1] quote “the dwindling applicability of ‘old’ methods and tools cannot be expected to address increasing 21st century concerns.” The underlying assumption to this assertion is that being complex, these systems demonstrate complexity traits such as adaptation, self-organization, and emergence; and these system traits inherently conflict with the purpose-driven approach of engineering system design that looks for convergence of behaviors and consistency of design and performance [7].
>>
Beyond these technical/logical ingredients, in order to get wisdom solutions, perhaps the most difficult of them is to identify and introduce those human weighting factors (as behaviors) that meet the wisdom which corresponds to the actual context and provides the sustainable evolution and sometimes even the surviving requirements for the Earth ecosystem and humankind progress.
The complexity of such optimization, including, indirectly, human factors, though our model of weighting factors could seem too sophisticated, is in fact further confirmed:
“A complexity perspective prompts engineering systems’ research to reason why a system behavior exceeds what is intuitively the sum of its individual parts [8]. Prime examples of these, that will be expanded later on, are transportation infrastructure that not only connect existing places, but shape the commuting patterns, the supply chains, the emergence of new conurbation, and so on. Another question that may arise is whether embeddedness or interconnectedness is actually to be blamed for loss in resilience [9, p. 13]. Elsewhere in
complex natural system research, it has been established that in natural ecosystems, which are proven to be highly nested and interconnected, there exists an inherent ability to survive and bounce back [1]. “
More than these, a ray of hope could be imagined, as there exists an inherent ability to survive and bounce back, but, in addition, we should also consider the need to be in natural ecosystems, i.e., to benefit from their potential of adapting and surviving.
In a concrete manner, using also the huge potential of AI/ICT, we have to count our differences versus a natural ecosystem and mitigate the consequences, focusing on climate changes, Earth resources fading etc
In conclusion, we consider that, for meeting “wisdom”, in such complex and dramatic World context we live in, deeper and timely analyses should continue, keeping in mind the necessity to achieve what it seems that we have lost: the (natural) chances of our Earth ecosystem …to adapt and survive.
3. Conclusions
The increasing complexity of World evolutions, now manifesting by the multi-crises webeganto faceandsufferfrom, leads to unpredictablechallenges forourecosystem, resulting from unprecedently complicated and unsustainable processes of this system, as we could count here the climate changes, social and geopolitical unbalances or Earth resources fading (we also earlier approached [11][12]).
As such premises were largely known, without saying that their analysis is no more necessary (on contrary), we consider, for a more efficacy approach, to also include the role of humankind nature/behaviour and evolution along with these processes, in order to find how we have arrived to this point/level of dramatism at Earth scale and the ways toward appropriate solutions. It is sure that the answers are not simple, but also the questions could be …many more.
Here we have to count not only the Covid 19 pandemic or Russia’s aggression context, but all their consequences and correlations with the prior premises of Earth ecosystem and humankind evolution, where climate changes, Earth resources fading or energy crisis were iceberg tips to be ... properly considered!
We believe that, usually, the larger the humankind power, the probability of going to unsafe/unsustainable directions, or even failing the target, is slightly increasing. More than these, from a long history, we know that humankind potential has a dual face: to construct and to destroy.
As a matter of fact, we consider that, generally, the fundamental problem of humankind evolution was and remain just our ability to balance this duality for a sustainable/constructive progress, but here the news is that the actual levels of power, complexity and Earth resources, which humankind could use, arrived in a critical combination of parameters.
With other words, this actual critical combination is just like a very sharp sword, for which the technology provided highly strong materials but humankind decisions positive potential, in spite of the science unprecedented progress, is highly impaired by the highly complex and complicated processes of Earth ecosystem.
In order to have a more realistic image of the factors to be approached for an optimization analysis, when estimating the actual premises, we consider to count perhaps the most influent, but difficult to control factors of the aimed balance: the ever changing/subjective role of human personality and the crucial multiplying role of technology, where information and communication technology (ICT) is the most prevailing.
As the ever changing/subjective role of human personality in the decision processes (generally in governance) is, in its turn, related to the complex premises of education and human nature, its analysis would be perhaps an even more difficult issue, exceeding our paper aim, although most of people think that the World evolution is depending on leaders quality.
On the other side, we consider that the education is the main way to change the people towardabetterWorldandthecombinationofhumanintelligence(HI)andartificialintelligence (AI), we already approached [6][9], is and will be more and more linked with ICT sustainable development.
Among the few certainties of the new normality, we are looking for, the necessity of new paradigms for a multicriteria approach, along with the relativity of any optimization solution in a complex, complicate and interconnected Earth ecosystem of highly dynamic processes, should be included.
For a concrete and realistic picture of this context of ICT sustainable development, we consider that among relevant ICT advances, AI is the most complex but also promising.
Further, any optimization should address both measuring and metrics, which are real challenges to define and design for the complex and complicate subsystems of Earth ecosystem, but especially for those parts of the processes where ICT is largely involved.
Addressing these issues, we have analysed a comprehensible example for the multicriteria approach and the relativity of AI development optimization, concretely presented by [1].
Approaching this way both AI measuring and metrics, although, apparently, the main issue and criteria of the optimization is energy efficiency (among the most important performance parameter for present and future ICT systems), for AI unprecedented advances and expansion this is far from being enough to be considered, especially because of the inherent diversity and complexity of the potential AI applications Worldwide. Beyond competition aspects, we noticed the technology advances implications, as AI accelerator chips, which could make the difference in certain areas of applications.
Finally, we could notice that even with such complex benchmarks, in the actual dynamic ICT/AI context, it is very difficult to generally optimize/rank the technology advances, but they still provide means to evaluate the typical applications performance differences.
Another example, also presenting systemic covering and relevance at Earth scale, referredtotheimplicationsofdevelopingsafeICTapplicationsforthehugeindustryof modern cars, aiming the proper protection/reliability against cyberattacks.
The crucial importance of cars industry must be also understood in the crises emergent context, but inherently from multi-criteria point of view (sustainability, energy, reliability, security etc.), being a special part of World critical infrastructure/services, as it is presented in [2].
The complex dependence on ICT was proved, this way, more than obvious and highly increasing, in the Earth ecosystem expansion, generating more complex challenges at different levels of development, even when considering the standardization at the United Nations (UN) level, which is surely more and more necessary, as the diversity and complexity increase in every industry.
From the resulted list of requirements for achieving a proper protection/reliability against cyberattacks, we could notice that optimizing such complex and dynamic industry/domain is involving a lot of interdependent processes, along with associated human inputs/outputs which are surely relative and time sensitive factors.
This way we consider that the ICT optimal development analyses should be extended by deeper refining of context knowledge and multi-criteria optimization at Earth scale and humankind behaviour level.
Although, traditionally, when incertitude prevails, wisdom is sometimes associated with keeping the routine/behaviour in thinking and acting, now the times are changing that approach, as deeply refining knowledge should become mandatory in our fast and turbulently changing World.
Using one of the special features of ICT development, we consider that a systemic approach should include the proper information management in order to maximize the efficacy and efficiency of optimization analyses, i.e., to refine knowledge in a continuously manner regarding the multi - crises challenges implications on short and long term, but taking into account the unprecedented high level of incertitude and changing which must alter the actual paradigms of development.
As a very good example, the protection of modern cars, although a planetary issue with dynamic challenges, considering the increasing complexity and the extended proliferation, is only a facet of World picture, but still relevant here by the impact of ICT involved applications andtheirfastadvances. Infact,alltheWorldseemstobeafastandcomplicatedcar,moving still faster by the ICT impact, but sometimes we wonder where to and which are the chances to safely get there!
There are many lessons to be learned from the cars example/case, as the modern car (especially the emerging self-driving one), along with the smartphone, are perhaps the most relevant symbols of humankind technology progress, where ICT advances impact is more than essential.
Recalling the mentioned essential role of the proper information management in the modern cars huge industry, the information context and risk factors evaluation must be also considered, for intelligent cars, but also for the rest of the World led by ICT advances. Finally, concrete ways to attend the needed target in the complicate and changing environment of hostile factors could be found by practical sets of measures which should be followed and continuously improved in processes of check and act type.
Our analysis, which aimed more general and large covering approaches, using the ICT potential at Earth ecosystem scale, also considered the comprehensive frame of the information security standard, given by ISO 27001, the world's best-known standard for information security management systems (ISMS), which provides a coherent and holistic approach (meaning that the entire organization is covered, not just IT [4]),i.e.,herewehavetheevidence that the link between information and all the Earth ecosystem is essential, real and functional,
as the information is the operational element of the systemic approach. This way, the understanding of refining knowledge, i.e., the highest way/level of benefit from information, is clear, as we have to approach introspections on how the most complex actual challenges could be identified and step by step treated using actual data/information/knowledge, new models and …imagination.
Eventually, for the considered ICT role in the World dramatic/crises context and emergence, the analyses must be further focused on testing the resilience of the associated complex systems, i.e., the appropriate models of the Earth ecosystem context. This way, engineering and designing complex and interconnected systems become a major goal of the actual ICT development and this approach is successfully also presented by another relevant example [5].
As also it was seen in the case of modern cars industry, testing procedures are not enough if the knowledge is not continuously refined, i.e., using actual data, new paradigms and …human innovation/imagination. In concrete approaches, refining knowledge means that we have to change paradigm, use data of actual crises and challenges, along with needed support.
Beyond these technical/logical ingredients, in order to get wisdom solutions, perhaps the most difficult of them is to identify and introduce those human weighting factors (as behaviors) that meet the wisdom which corresponds to the actual context and provides the sustainable evolution and sometimes even the surviving requirements for the Earth ecosystem and humankind progress, as it is, indirectly, confirmed by [5] too.
Still, a ray of hope could be imagined, as there exists an inherent ability to survive and bounce back, but, in addition, we should also consider the need to be in natural ecosystems, i.e., to benefit from their potential of adapting and surviving.
In a concrete manner, using also the huge potential of AI/ICT, we have to count our differences versus a natural ecosystem and mitigate the consequences, focusing on climate changes, Earth resources fading etc
In conclusion, we consider that, for meeting “wisdom”, in such complex and dramatic World context we live in, deeper and timely analyses should continue, keeping in mind the necessity to achieve what it seems that we have lost: the (natural) chances of our Earth ecosystem …to adapt and survive.
REFERENCES
[1]Samuel K. Moore, Benchmark Shows AIs Are Getting Speedier > MLPerf stats show some systems have doubled performance this year, competing benchmark coming, 24 SEP 2021, https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-benchmarks-mlperf-performance
[2]Mike Hodge, Automakers, Regulators Take On Cybersecurity, February 28, 2022Author, https://www.keysight.com/discover/blogs/automakers-regulators-take-oncybersecurity?elq_cid=3286481&cmpid=ELQ-20689
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[4]***, ISO/IEC 27001: What’s new in IT security?, https://www.iso.org/contents/news/2022/10/new-iso-iec27001.html#:~:text=The%20holistic%20approach%20of%20ISO,managing%20information %20securely%20and%20safely.
[5]Giuliano Punzo et all, Engineering Resilient Complex Systems: The Necessary Shift Toward Complexity Science, IEEE Systems Journal, Vol. 14, No. 3, September 2020
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[7]Gareth Smith, Demystifying intelligent automation, May 2022]: https://www.enterpriseitworld.com/demystifying-intelligent-automation-2/
[8]Raj Kumar Hansdah, Scientific Progress Without True Wisdom Will Cause More Harm Than Good, https://www.beaninspirer.com/scientific-progress-without-true-wisdom-willcause-more-harm-than-good, Updated: October 21, 2021
[9]Victor Greu et all, Human and artificial intelligence driven incentive-operation model and algorithms for a multi-purpose integrated crowdsensing-crowdsourcing scalable system, Proceedings of International Conference Communications 2018, (Politehnica University of Bucharest, Military Technical Academy, IEEE Romania), June 2018(COMM 2018 is covered in IEEE Explore Database and ISI Web of Science in the Conference Proceedings Citation Index).
[10]Robert W. Lucky, Deep Complexities in EE, IEEE Spectrum, May 2018
[11]Victor Greu, Searching the right tracks of new technologies in the earth race for a balance between progress and survival, Romanian Distribution Committee (affiliated to the “International Association of the Distributive Trade”-scientific association – A.I.D.A. Brussels) Magazine(international; electronic; covered in RePEc International Data Base), Volume 3, Issue1, Year 2012.
[12]Victor Greu, Information and communications technologies go greener beyond IOTbehind is all the earth-Part1,RomanianDistributionCommittee(affiliatedtothe“International Association of the Distributive Trade”-scientific association – A.I.D.A. Brussels) Magazine(international; electronic; covered in RePEc International Data Base), Volume 7, Issue 2, Year 2016.
[13]Ernesto Villalba, The Concept of Knowledge for a Knowledge-based Society From knowledge to learning, European Commission Joint Research Centre © European Communities, 2007
[14]Victor Greu, The information and communications technology is driving artificial intelligence to leverage refined knowledge for the World sustainable development –(Part 2), Romanian Distribution Committee (affiliated to the “International Association of the Distributive Trade”-scientific association – A.I.D.A. Brussels) Magazine(international; electronic; covered in RePEc International Data Base), Volume 10, Issue 1, Year 2019.
[15]Andreas Poltermann, Education for a Knowledge-Based Society? A Concept Must be Rethought, 17 April 2014, https://rs.boell.org/en/2014/04/17/education-knowledge-basedsociety-concept-must-be-rethought
[16]Victor Greu, Information and communications technology is merging data science and advanced artificial intelligence towards the core of knowledge based society -(Part 3), Romanian Distribution Committee (affiliated to the “International Association of the Distributive Trade”-scientific association – A.I.D.A. Brussels) Magazine(international; electronic; covered in RePEc International Data Base), Volume 12, Issue 3, Year 2021.
[17] Victor Greu, Communicate on … Communications - From a Conference every 2 years to the need to communicate every day and everywhere, Romanian Distribution Committee (affiliated to the “International Association of the Distributive Trade”-scientific association –A.I.D.A. Brussels) Magazine (international; electronic; covered in RePEc International Data Base), Volume 5, Issue 2, Year 2014.