EXPLORING THE
FUTURE
This report analyses the National Geographic Society, taking an objective look at its brand history, market position and contextual relevance in the world today. Through drawing out key technological and sociological trends, we can attempt to forecast the state of the company in the future, and further predict a range of possible product solutions.
CONTENTS NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC 8
Heritage
10
Brand Timeline
14
Ethics
16
Content
20
Touchpoints
22
Touchpoint Analysis
24
Demographics
26
Public Perceptions
28
Stakeholders
29
Company Hierarchy
30
Finances
31
Investments
32
Competitor Coverage
36
Competitor Analysis
38
Competitor Strengths and Weaknesses
BRAND ANALYSIS 40
Porter’s 5 Forces
42
SWOT
43
Opportunities
BRAND VISUALS 48
The Yellow Frame
50
The Logo
51
Colours
52
Visual Hierarchy
54
Photography
56
Advertising
58
Existing Products
60
Summary
62
Brand Personality
64
Brand Personification
66
Brand Iceberg
2013 70
STEVE 2013
74
OFF = ON
76
Trends
2030 80
STEVE 2030
86
Market Effects
90
Personas
94
Technology
96
Urbanisation
98
Happiness
100
Energy
104 106
Space Changing World
REPOSITIONING 110
Key Insight
112
Reposition Summary
114
Structure Changes
116
A Closer Look
118
New Brand Iceberg
120
Design Ethic
121
Brand Essence
124
Materials
126
Adcepts
130
Whats Out There?
132
Plant Spotting
134
Unseen Worlds
136
Third Eye
138
Explore and Play
140
References
“ The increase and diffusion of geographic knowledge ”
In 1888, the National Geographic Society was founded by a group of 33 scientists, explorers, geographers and philanthropists in Washington D.C., with the intention to “increase and diffuse geographic knowledge”. Initially, only being of a scientific nature, the society and its publications soon began to evolve in order to connect with a far wider audience; the general public.
8
This proved hugely successful and with the introduction of photographs and the switch from journals to magazines, they witnessed a jump in readership from 1000 to 2,000,000. With this new revenue stream, National Geographic began funding expeditions and research projects that aimed to help benefit humanity’s understanding of the world around them.
Alexander Graham Bell; one of the society founders
1886 First print of National Geographic by Judd & Detweiler in Washington DC. At the time had 5000 magazines to print.
1888 Prompted by a desire to share their scientific interests, ideas, and findings, the 33 founders of the National Geographic Society first met at the Cosmos Club in Washington D.C., on January 13, 1888.
1909 A National Geographic funded expedition claims to be the first to reach the North Pole with a team comprising of Robert E Perry and Matthew A Henson.
1888 “Inspiring people to care about the planet”
TIMELINE Technological Milestones Brand Milestones Tagline Touchpoints National Geographic Values
1914 National Geographic’s first colour photo is published. It was a garden scene, but had no relation to the story, it was merely an example of the technology; recieving high praise.
1935 This year sees the invention of first colour multi-layered film, creating 35mm single-lens SLR. National Geographic then makes the move to 35mm Leica cameras with kodachrome.
1919 National Geographic School Bulletin. A publication similar to the National Geographic but aimed at primary school children, was published weekly during the school year from 1919 to 1975.
1962 In February 1962 National Geographicpublishes the first full colour issue.
1965 National Geographic television programming debuts with the National Geographic Special “Americans on Everest� on CBS.
1941 National Geographic Aid War Effort. National Geographic Society opens its storehouse of photographs, maps and other cartographic data to Franklin D Rosevelt, and the U.S army to aid the war effort.
1969 1969Apollo Apollo1111astronauts astronauts carry carryNational NationalGeographic Geographic Society Societyflag flagtotothe themoon. moon.
1996 1996Society Societylaunches launchesitsitswebsite: website: www.nationalgeographic.com. www.nationalgeographic.com.
1998 1998National NationalGeographic GeographicDigital Digital compelation. compelation.The Thesociety societystarts starts colating colatingallallprevious previousissues issuesofofthe themain main magazine magazineinto intoa adigital digitalformat. format.
1989 1989National NationalGeographic Geographic Bee Beeis islaunched. launched.ByBy10th 10th anniversary, anniversary,5 5million millionstudents students a ayear yearparticipate. participate. 1971 1971 “Dare “Daretotoexplore” explore”
1997 1997National NationalGeographic Geographicstarts starts itsitsown ownTV TVchannel channeltotohost hostitsits dedicated dedicatedTV TVshows, shows,removing removingthe the specials specialshosted hostedononother otherchannels channels since since1964. 1964.
Traditionally National Geographic have pioneered new technologies, however in recent years this can be seen less and less often.
2008 National Geographic opens its first global retail store on London’s Regent Street.
2009 “Live curious”
2013 The company launches National Geographic Creative Agency to sell its photos and offer its photographers to commercial clients.
2002 National Geographic releases its first feature film “K-19: The Widowmaker,” starring Harrison Ford and Liam Neeson. 2002 The first prototype and use of CritterCam by National Geographic.
Technological Milestones Brand Milestones Tagline Touchpoints National Geographic Values
“To encourage conservation of natural resources and raise public awareness of the importance of nature.�
The National Geographic society has always had one aim, a goal that serves as a running theme throughout their touchpoints. National Geographic encourages its readers to care about the planet, but not through guilt. Instead they fill you with awe and wonder
14
at the spectacle that is the natural world. This brand objective is as relevant today as it ever has been. A glance at their mission statement will tell you that the audience for their publications are the people affected by the destruction of nature; everyone.
National Geographic teaches its readers about the world, without guilt or taking a political stance.
TO INSPIRE PEOPLE TO CARE ABOUT THE PLANET
“Unending commitment to integrity, accuracy and excellence”
A simple analysis of National Geographic’s history presents a deep emphasis on journalistic neutrality. Refusing to take sides, National Geographic aims to serve simply as a medium for information. However critics may claim that they often fall prey
to dramatisation, with accusations that the society manipulates details in their articles in order to amplify aspects of a story. These accusations include National Geographic directing the readers focus for the betterment of the organisation.
15
CONTENT What topics have National Geographic focused on recently?
ANIMALS & NATURE %9.52 erutaN dnA slaminA
%9.71 hceT dnA ecneicS
25%
%9.52 erutaN dnA slaminA
5.92 etamilC dnA tnemnorivnE
25% of the content covers wildlife, plants and nature. National Geographic brings to its readers both information and images of the animals they don’t get to see in far away places, as well as the surprising sides and lives of and familiar animals. %9.pets 71 hceT d nA ecnmore eicS
%5.62 erutluC dnA yteicoS
ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE 5.92 etamilC dnA tnemnorivnE
%5.62 erutluC dnA yteicoS
30% of the content covers the beauty of places and environments around us, from the redwood trees well known to its American readership, to the medieval landscape of Northern Romania. National Geographic shows its readers the environment and climate in its natural state, illustrating this through awe and often highlighting the impacts upon them.
30%
16
SOCIETY & CULTURE 5.92 etamilC dnA tnemnorivnE
%5.62 erutluC dnA yteicoS
27% cover the lesser known people who live all around the world in different societies and cultures, with a radically different way of life. National Geographic gets fully entrenched in their societies and shows us just how they live day to day and what affects their lives.
27%
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY %9.52 erutaN dnA slaminA
%9.71 hceT dnA ecneicS
18% 18% of the published content shows readers the scientific and technological advancements that push the boundaries of human ability; such as the exploration of space and what impacts they might hold for its readership. This runs hand in hand with the coverage of how existing and new technologies are taken up across the globe and their impacts on our culture and environment. These stories always relate back to the reader, describing the impact that scientific and technological advances have on their lives. 5.92 etamilC dnA tnemnorivnE
%5.62 erutluC dnA yteicoS
19
1 lecture series
AD
N Ge ation og rap al hic
VE
NT
UR
E
NG Adventure
G
Na
tio
HISeograpnhaicl TO RY
NG History
N Ge ation og rap al hic
GU
IDE
lecture plan
N Ge ation og rap al hic
NGM
N Ge ation og rap al hic
KID
school competitions
N Ge ation og rap al hic
GR EEN
NG Green Living
N Ge ation
S
JUNographaicl IOR
NG Kids
NG Junior
N Ge ation og rap al hic
N Ge ation og rap al hic
school publishing
G
Na
tio
TR eograpnal AV hic ELL ER
NG Traveller
N Ge ation
ATographaicl LA S
atlas
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
travel guides
photography books
kids books
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
photography microsite
WildCam
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
kids microsite
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
video microsite
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
travel microsite
You TUBE
NG Website
20
NG Podcasts
NG YouTube
television microsite
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
adventure microsite
animals microsite
NG Missions
image sales
talks
photography agency
museum exhibitions
NG Expeditions
NG Books
Game Apps
Education Apps
NG Mobisodes
NG NG Channel
HD NG Mundo
NG HD
NG Music
NG NG Junior
NG Wild
NG Films
March of the Penguins
TOUCHPOINTS k19: The Widowmaker
These are all of National Geographic’s touchpoints. Highlighted are the most key that we shall analyse further. Note: Greyed out touchpoints are discontinued.
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ANALYSIS What is the current state of their main touchpoints?
Started
1997
37,000,000
Current State
NG
US Viewers
Started
1996
Current State
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
5,000,000
The channel has held a regular viewership over the past 4 years with the last year being particularly successful, with 5 of their series reaching the top 10 in the channels history.
There has been a steady rise in viewership over the last 2 years, with almost as many new visitors coming from outside of the U.S.
Visits per Week
55.42% - U.S 6.14% - U.K 4.12% - India 2.2% - Korea Demographics
22
Current State Started
Figures show that readership has been decreasing, with 2012 showing a decrease in subscribers by 5%
1886
N Ge ation og rap al hic
4,518,152
Global Subscribers
87% of magazine subscribers are from the U.S Demographics
Started
2010
Current State For the past year, National Geographic have consistently been in the top 5 for travel and top 30 for news in the UK Apple app store
National geographic today National Parks World Atlas Top Rated Apps
23
DEMOGRAPHIC
DEMOGRAPHICS Who is National Geographic’s current audience?
82% Of National
Geographic’s current audience is based within the US.
National Geographics current audience tends to be towards the older and more affluent end of the media market. With a slight male skew they can be generally described
24
as people who; appreciate the value of being educated about their world, passionate travellers, photography enthusiasts and adventure seekers.
The typical follower is currently a middle aged, middle class American man. With a changing world will this continue?
UNITED STATES AVERAGES
Male/Female
Age
Income
49.2
37.2
$50,233
50.8
55.7
44.3
46.8
$66,104
52
48
36
$62,500
58
42
50.2
$55,700
College % 31
34.4
29.8
48
25
PERCEPTIONS What do people think of the National Geographic? In order to gain a better understanding of how readers perceive the brand, a survey was conducted in order to gather the public’s perception of National Geographic. Four questions were asked to 41 random people of varying demographics.
Do you, or anyone you know, regularly read the National Geographic Magazine?
35
NO
6 YES
If given the choice, would you rather read articles on a physical publication or through a digital medium
10 31
26
It seems that the brand is perceived as very traditional and behind the times, in contrast users want more digital content.
When you think of National Geographic, what three words come to mind?
In terms of technology, how up to date do you think National Geographic is?
Old fashioned/ Behind the times
Normal for the current era.
Our findings were quite interesting. It seems the older population view National Geographic as a more cutting edge brand, however the younger demographics felt that
Cutting edge/ Ahead of most.
the organisation was more old fashioned and behind the times. This was paralleled by a desire for a digital interface to actually view the content.
27
STAKEHOLDERS Who is Invested in the organisation?
NS
PHYSIC AL P
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s, P M an
Su pp Di l g
rtisers d ve ,A rs rs taile ie l re ita
LI C Editors, Writ AT ers ,P I Reader ho s, M to an gr ag a er ia l Supplier s, A dv Deliver y N er et
s, er h p am te
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ists UB ital Art Dig LP rs, me ITA Users m, am tea gr ro ial er ag
O
G en eral public Ed ts uca en m tional h s Establi
EX
Ar ti ers cle w riters, Research Exp tors lorers , Scientists, Dona
PLO
Y VER RATIO O C S I N A ND D
PRIMARY STAKEHOLDERS
28
SECONDARY STAKEHOLDERS
HIERARCHY How is the company structured?
N Ge ation og rap al hic
NG
National Geographic’s long heritage has lead to a somewhat confused working structure in the modern business climate. Having had success with magazines, the society has, as discussed, moved into a diverse range of touch points. Although this has broadened the readership, it
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
has lead to an apparent separation of communication between different areas in the organisation. With the brand attempting to modernise itself across these various platforms, some of the brand identity is becoming confused and the lack of communication is beginning to show.
29
FINANCES How well are the National Geographic doing?
In 2007 the National Geographic society received an unprecedented decline of contributions across all of its facets, possibly due to the rise of the economic recession at the time. National Geographic however, has experienced a remarkably slow rate of recovery and even in 2012 they still stand at only 83.3% of their pre-2007 contribution levels.
Magazine Books Products
Total Contributions (in thousands)
Contributions
2007
2012
523,525
444,968
down 16.7%
Federal grants
TOTAL EXPENSES 14% Grants, exploration and outreach 1%
Fundraising
250
7%
$Million
200
Management and general
150 100 50
20
78% Publishing and other programs
What are they spending it on?
30
INVESTMENTS What are they spending their money on?
250
$Million
200
Education Fund
150 100
Exploration Fund
50
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Where are their investments held?
EDUCATION Despite facing falling profit margins, National Geographic are still investing a growing sum of money into education, showing just how important they feel this is. In recent years they have even launched a new online education platform with lesson plans aimed at children under the age of 18.
EXPLORATION Exploration sits at the heart of the National Geographic identity. They are investing in more grants to fund explorers around the world, whilst spending capital on the further development of the ‘Your Shot’ online platform which allows users to upload photos from their own explorations.
ENGAGEMENT Despite decreasing bottom lines, National Geographic continues to invest in their magazine, which is generating less revenue now then it ever has. Whilst this may be considered a safe move to stick with what they know, the trending decrease of profits is a damming indication that further differentiation is desperately required.
31
COMPETITORS Who are their competitors and what topics do they cover?
MAGAZINE
Circulation
4,708,307
3,372,240
810,821
1,320,314
137,605
53,000
Nature Photography Business Entertainment Culture Health News/Politics Science
Compared to other magazines that are providing similar content, National Geographic has a substantially higher circulation. There
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are also few direct competitors within the topics they cover.
WEBSITE
Web Rank
847
429
907
1,552
10
6
Nature Photography Business Entertainment Culture Health News/Politics Science
National Geographics website is ranked within the top 1000 websites, relatively high when considering the internet as a whole.
However its competitors that have a stronger digital foothold, and a wider range of topics have a higher number of visitors.
33
TV
Viewers
270,000
42,289,000 720,000
1,541,000
3,800,00 530,000
Nature Photography Business Entertainment Culture Health News/Politics Science
The TV service that National Geographic provides has a small number of viewers. Compared to some channels that could be
34
considered competitors based on content provided, its evident that they only appeal to a small demographic
Masi Mara, Kenya
COMPETITORS Who are they and how are they faring?
TIME MAGAZINE Established: 1923 Circulation: 3,281,175 Web Rank: 429 Sharing both a strong similarity in visual style and high brow tone to National Geographic, Time magazine covers topics that may be considered the opposite of National Geographic’s content. Strongly focusing on news, business, entertainment and politics. Notably however TIME magazine also has its own ‘for kids’ sub brand with increasing focus on education. Coupled with TIME’s multiple language editions and existing focus on science and technology, it is increasingly likely that it will become a strong competitor in the future as both their content areas converge.
THE ECONOMIST Established: 1843 Circulation: 810,821 Weekly Magazine Sporting a smaller readership, The Economist magazine has a similar demographic, as National Geographic while also covering topics such as economics, business and world politics. More recently it has began to report on environmental and technological changes. Interestingly The Economist utilises a ‘tell you about’ rather than ‘show you’ style. Preferring to convey facts and figures, the style of writing is one that could complement National Geographic rather than compete against it.
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Continued investment in the magazine has left the brand at risk of losing out on the online stage to its competitors.
BBC Established: 1922 Web Rank: 907 The British Broadcasting Corporation covers news and analysis across all topics, including nature and technology in which it indirectly competes with National Geographic with its ‘In pictures’ and ‘Nature’ minisites. Notably it often covers similar topics to National Geographic in news as well as other areas like competitions. Furthermore, it produces a range of magazines with a modest readership. The BBC has shown a strong movement in adopting new technologies such as the use of drones for filming in a similar spirit to National Geographic’s historical pioneering of similar tech firsts. While also having a long heritage, the BBC has been successful in maintaining a modernised public perception.
WIKIPEDIA Established: 2001 Web Rank: 6 Wikipedia acts as an editable online encyclopedia that allows users to quickly search and find information about any given subject. With the increase in people going ‘online’ and noted feelings of ‘why buy a magazine when you can find it for free on the web’, National Geographic are finding strong competition in newer internet only companies. Wikipedia offers users a chance to get an overview of a subject but does not necessarily provide users with the rich insights into a topic that is provided through National Geographic. Therefore Wikipedia currently serves mainly as a reference point for information users already know, they are looking for.
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COMPETITORS Where do their strengths lie?
Magazine Circulation
Major Platforms
Web Rank
Subscription Cost
Children Focus
Languages
Depth of Information
BBC
Wikipedia
The Economist
Through the use of a simple radiograph, National Geographic’s strengths over its competition become clear. Their ability to provide in-depth, high quality content across a broad range of platforms at a comparatively low price, has been the major driving force of their historical success. Dangerously however
38
Time
National Geographic
it also becomes apparent that, more than its fellows (The Economist notwithstanding), National Geographic relies heavily upon their magazine and as such have struggled to compete on the dynamic online stage against rivals Wikipedia and TIME.
BRAND ANALYSIS
PORTER’S 5 FORCES What market factors are affecting National Geographic?
Threats of new entrants
Through the rise of individual empowerment, the barriers for competitors to National Geographic’s ‘information’ market has drastically reduced. Low costs and easy access to the internet has already seen a number of organisations appear that offer similar services as National Geographic; such as Flickr and Wikipedia. Given the lower resources and skills required to reach out to people through these means, there is no reason why more threats won’t arise in the near future. National Geographic’s reputation, developed over the past 125 years, will likely afford them a long lasting and strong foothold in this market. However it is still susceptible to a market loss if it does not keep up with the newer dynamic mediums.
Being of a journalistic nature, National Geographic does not have a supplier in the traditional sense, but rather depend on the supply of explorers and photographers in the market as well as their ability to reach those areas of interest to cover.
Bargaining Power of Suppliers
In reality, there will always be news and developments in far out places for National Geographic to cover. However as people’s individual worlds ‘expand’, traditional sources of exploration will dwindle, demanding explorers go to increasingly inaccessible places, such as space and the deepest oceans, or to find new frontiers within the world previously considered ‘known’.
Bargaining Power of Customers
40
As such a large and multifaceted organisation, the individual customer’s power remains quite low. However with the rise of individual empowerment this is on course to become a bigger factor. The multiple faces of National Geographic allow it to attempt to capture the interest of as broad a group of people as possible with equally varied tastes. The challenges involved stem from their inability to react quickly in refocusing efforts to best account for changes in consumer needs.
A new threat is on the horizon - small and mobile online rivals are able to collectively compete with the National Geographics.
Threats of substitute products
The breakdown of barriers to entering the online market, has caused the internet to become a platform that allows smaller competitors that may not compete on a grand scale to collectively become a dangerous threat.
Flickr, for example, gives photographers a portal to display their images and increase their publicity. Although there are a number of news sites that are able to keep people up to date, twitter has quickly become an excellent source for users that wish to be dynamically informed about current events immediately.
With a range of new services popping up, National Geographic has experienced an influx of rival products without the overall market growing proportionately. Due to this increased rival density, the organisation is beginning to suffer, something that is reflected in their recent circulation figures.
Degree of Competitive Rivalry
Whilst the current market threats for the National Geographic are being intensified through the increased rivalry, the societies existing user base demonstrates a strong brand loyalty. This may better facilitate the adoption of new touchpoints through the strong trust towards the brand itself, as opposed to rival ‘new’ brands which do not hold the same public confidence.
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SWOT ANALYSIS What is contributing to National Geographic’s current position?
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
• • • •
Strong brand awareness. Investment capital available. Large following. Topics more relevant now then ever before. • Great stories and opportunities to engage the public. • Trusted brand for quality content. • Worldwide infrastructure.
• Perception as being a dated brand to younger consumers within the 18-30 age range • Losing followers and funding at an alarming rate. • Investing money in the failing business model of magazine subscriptions. This in turn is using up investment capital that could be used to differentiate themselves
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
•
• Consumers moving to free tech whilst print is still National Geographic’s biggest income. • Internal company hierarchy restricts National Geographic to the touchpoints that they have broken the company into. Future technologies would blur these boundaries.
Increasing relevance of the environment and global warming. • Emerging technologies make national geographics brand values and objectives easier to achieve and in much more exciting and engaging ways. • Increasing worldwide recognition about geoconservation.
Summary It is clear that they are losing money due to high investment in a regressing print market. The organisation’s infrastructure is based ‘in silos’ with different sectors having only minimal communication. This coupled with an increasingly saturated market sector restricts their ability to react cohesively to consumer requirements, thus leaves them with the danger of being outmanoeuvred by smaller, newer and more dynamic technology based competitors.
42
OPPORTUNITIES Where are the market opportunities?
WEBSITE
5 - 12 Yrs
12 - 18 Yrs
18 - 30 Yrs
30 - 60+ Yrs
OPPORTUNITY AGE RANGE Through National Geographic’s current touchpoints they are capturing a significant primary and secondary market. However, the 18 - 30 generation Y users are the lowest, which provides the largest opportunity market for the expansion of the organisation’s customer base through new means.
SUBSCRIBER LOCATION
NORTH AMERICA
INTERNATIONAL
4,241,881
939,387
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OPPORTUNITIES Where are the market opportunities?
Male Female < 18
(Worldwide)
19,444,031
U.S. Traffic
10,905,070
Non - U.S. Traffic
8,538,961
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 + Website viewer statistics 2012
National Geographic should not be afraid of the move to digital. One look at the statistics shows that they have a huge potential target market, that they are not currently capturing. These graphs illustrate how the majority of
44
new website hits are coming from the 18 24 age range. Additionally, it is clear that unlike their original touchpoints, there are a significant number of these unique hits coming from outside the U.S..
There is a massive potential international market that we feel the organisation is now only just scratching the surface of.
VIEWERS OF DIGITAL CONTENT
153,272
156,000
153,007
+40%
148,000 140,000 132,000 124,000 116,000 108,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Earlier in this report, the current National Geographic investments were outlined, concluding that the organisation is continuing to invest significantly in their print publications. However, in the graph above, it can be seen that between January and June of 2012, 40% of all National Geographic subscribers began viewing their content digitally. This further demonstrates the growing marketâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s receptiveness to an increased digital presence.
PERCEPTIONS OF DIGITAL MAGAZINES
36% of people feel that free magazines are just as good as paid-for magazines When asked about their opinions on digital magazines, the majority of people felt that paid-for magazines were worth the cost while also offering more relevant information. This
40% think you can find all the content from print and digital magazines online. number has the potential to decrease; with the rise of information on the web, people may start to feel that magazines simply arenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t worth the extra cost.
45
“Looking forwards, publishers need to not only ensure that they secure a foothold in digital ecosystems such as Apple’s Newsstand and Google Play Magazines, but also seek to maintain or improve profit margins by exploring new avenues of revenue generation.” MINTEL ANALYSISTS
Fisher Towers, Utah
BRAND VISUALS
THE YELLOW FRAME What does the frame represent? Arguably one of the most iconic visual elements of the brand, the yellow frame has grown to epitomise the organisation. Dating back to the early years of the
society, this simplistic graphic element is lavishly displayed across all of National Geographicâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s touchpoints, as well as being a core component in their advertising.
A visual expression of the organisationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s heritage
Simple aesthetic that is not trend dependent
Distinctive mark that is immediately recognisable
The bold, clear graphic eludes to the content provided Represents a windows into which you can view the world.
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Originally the border of the magazine, the iconic yellow logo provides users with a meaningful reminder of the brands roots.
LOGO What makes National Geographicâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s logo effective? Ever since the first publications in the later years of the 19th century, National Geographic has maintained a clear and consistent visual language. Much of this has come from the uniform use of graphics and colour throughout their touch points. 125 years later, it is still possible for new readers to recognise the very first publications and it is through this, that National Geographic are able to form a strong brand.
ORIGINAL LOGO
Rarely seen in digital touch points
Been used since the first publication in 1888
Still used as the front page logo in the magazine
Represents the brand heritage
MODERN LOGO
Incorporates the iconic graphic border Use of Sans Serif offers a different brand visual
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Represents a more modern National Geographic Used throughout touch points and often in digital
COLOUR What are the National Geographic colours?
C: M: Y: K:
2 14 92 0
C: M: Y: K:
Without doubt one of the most iconic elements of the National Geographic brand. It is used to highlight key areas of interest and often helps guide users through touch points via its minimal use and eye catching vibrancy
0 0 0 30
C: M: Y: K:
12 16 28 0
C: M: Y: K:
71 65 64 71
Seen only in more modern publications, this colour provides an alternative for background, graphic or text colour. Against the modern graphics, this colour hints at the companies heritage.
Used sparingly, this colour provides the pallet a lighter tone which can be used on either light or dark backgrounds for graphics or text which are not of high importance, creating a hierarchy through colour alone.
Being the boldest colour in the pallet, this black is used for primary text. National Geographic will often use this colour as a background in their digital touch points which gives them a different, more modern aesthetic.
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VISUAL HIERARCHY How do they structure their content?
MAGAZINE National Geographicâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s publication covers have always placed a strong focus on the image, sometimes even above the iconic yellow border. Whilst their text logo is always large, it tends to be of secondary importance to the editorial story of the issue, which sits largely central to view.
APPS Apps for National Geographic, display a modern and minimal graphic layout. The brand logo is not accompanied by the company name as seen in almost all other touchpoints and excessive information is removed. Large open font titles with clear subheadings and information draw users down the pages and create a fluid and usable narrative.
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Topic Title > Logo > Brand name. The purpose of the content is always paramount.
WEBSITE Of all major touchpoints the website includes the largest amount of information immediately presented to the user. This is presumably an effect of attempting to capture the widest variety of people accessing the site who all have varying needs. Here, brand elements, stake a back-seat while large titles and yellow graphic boxes work to direct user attention.
ADVERTS Due to the nature of TV advertisement, National Geographic only have a few seconds to sell the user a show, as well as provide enough information to access it. Clearly the show title takes precedent as to allow users to carry out further research if necessary. Viewers are then guided through the time and date information before finally encountering the brand name and logo.
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PHOTOGRAPHY What makes a National Geographic photograph?
National Geographic’s photography has traditionally focused on portraying the environment and the lives within it. Be the subject animal or human, the photography will always strive to express the beauty and wonder of the natural experience. This can be seen in their earlier photography (left) as well as their current photography (right). Chairman and co-founder of the society Alexander Graham Bell once said:
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“The world and all that is in it is our theme” A statement that still rings true today with the consistent imagery within the National Geographic’s photo archives are testament to the strength of that core brand ideal.
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ADVERTISING What is National Geographic’s advertising tone?
National Geographic’s advertising often features a subtle comedic wit, and although their advertising is both broad and diverse it can usually be categorised by two distinguishing tones; that of humour and empathy. The advertising tone can give us some insights into the way they address their audience. For example, in the advertising campaigns for National Geographic Kids, they draw the child’s attention with colourful
HUMOUR
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comic visuals then directly address the adults with their comedic tag line, ‘school can’t teach them everything’. When advertising National Geographic film and photography, a different tact is employed. Subtle humour is still implemented but the focus shifts to creating an empathetic link. Connecting the reader to the skill and professionalism with which their content represents and putting them in their journalist’s shoes.
EMPATHY
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PRODUCTS What products do National Geographic offer currently? At the moment, National Geographic offer a range of products available from their stores and other selected retailers. These products can fall under two main categories: educational and adventure. The former includes products such as telescopes, maps, books and other specialty products
aimed primarily at a younger audience. On the other hand, the adventure related products such as bags, clothing and binoculars are targeted at those that which to go out and explore, equipping people with the tools to see the world for themselves.
EDUCATION
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After visiting the National Geographic store in London, we were greatly surprised at how low quality and non representative of the brands values the products on sale actually were!
ADVENTURE
These products arenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t actually made by National Geographic. They are instead licensed out, meaning the overall quality of the products is quite low. Furthermore, the products are only representative of
the brand through their obvious use of black and yellow, and the logo. With this in mind, it would not be wise to use these as a reference of a National Geographic product.
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SUMMARY What makes National Geographic? What differentiates National Geographic from their competition? Throughout our deconstruction of the National Geographic brand, we have consistently found a strong and coherent link between their core values and the application of their touchpoints. Unlike many of their competitors, National Geographic is a not for profit organisation, allowing it to reinvest more heavily into quality content without such heavy marketing and other commercial costs.
What makes National Geographic publicly recognisable? Through its long heritage, National Geographic has made its way deep into general public knowledge. Its use of both strong and consistent brand style throughout the organisationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s touchpoints has made it a brand that is easily and quickly discernible. Even without visual cues it is easy to recognise the brand through the content offered. Emphasising exploration and education, the articles and information expressed through the various National Geographic mediums are clearly distinguishable.
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What is it that National Geographic believe in? Alexander Graham Bell, one of the founders of National Geographic, once said about the company that â&#x20AC;&#x153;The worlds and all that is in it is our themeâ&#x20AC;?. From the creation of the company, the core focus has been showing the world as it is. Although many things have changed within our world through the brands life, this core belief has remained. National Geographic have, over the years, held particular interest in the environment, culture and global issues while regarding the education of individuals with awe-inspiring and empathetic information to be the best means of solving large scale issues. For National Geographic, heavy stress is placed on the education of the public on international issues through the enjoyment of learning ,opposed the guilt of a situation; providing facts and understanding so that individuals can form their own opinions and act out of their own will.
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BRAND PERSONALITY DIFFERENTIATION RECOGNISABILITY
Exploration, Education, Quality, Natural World
Heritage, Visuals, Empathy, Content, Wonder and Awe
IDENTITY Discovery, Maturity, Friendly, Trustworthy. BELIEFS AND VALUES Sustainability, Conservation, Neutrality, Honesty, Pioneering
RECOGNISABILITY 125 years of publication has provided National Geographic with a firm seat as one of the most influential magazines of our time. Through consistency in their content, tone and imagery, the magazine has become synonymous with awe inspiring photography and thought.
DIFFERENTIATION National Geographic has managed to differentiate itself from its competitors by maintaining an unfaltering level of quality throughout their publications, maintaining their position as leaders in the field of nature photography and exploration
BELIEFS AND VALUES The magazine has always championed efforts of conservation, inspiring others to be believers of sustainable living. They are always at the heart of the cultural and ecological issues they cover and maintain a strict policy of honesty and neutrality.
IDENTITY National geographic is a mature brand with many loyal followers. They understand their customer base and appeal to their sensibilities with understated, mind expanding content focusing on discovery and exploration.
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PERSONIFICATION Who could represent the brand?
ELON MUSK “If something is important enough, even if the odds are against you, you should still do it.” After selling Paypal, Musk founded two companies: Tesla, a pioneer in electric vehicles that has been said to have single handedly progressed the uptake of electric vehicles by 10 years. The other, Spacex wants “To revolutionize
space technology, with the ultimate goal of enabling people to live on other planets.” Elon’s beliefs and values tie in with National Geographic’s, with his desire to promote sustainability as well as the ambition to explore.
BUZZ ALDRIN “Why can’t the average citizen visit Mars? That’s what I’ve been promoting in the last several years.” Edwin Eugene “Buzz” Aldrin Jr. was the second person to walk on the moon. Even now at the age of 83 he spends his time leading the USV (Unified Space Vision), within for which he has put together a plan for a human settlement on Mars by 2035. He also takes time out to write books in the attempt to
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inspire children to be more passionate about exploration through educating them about space. Buzz Aldrin is an advocate for what National Geographic believes in and his personal aspirations to educate and inspire exploration are in line with National Geographic’s own brand objective.
INFORMATIVE PHOTOGRAPHY NATURE HISTORY CURRENT EVENTS TRAVEL
ENVIRONMENT POLITICS MAGAZINE TV CHANNEL WEBSITE EDUCATION
RICH HERITAGE PROMOTING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES INTERNATIONALY RECOGNISED CONCERN FOR THE WORLD EDUCATING PEOPLE
BRAND ICEBERG 2013 Raise public awareness of the natural environment, and the animals that inhabit it Stewardship of the planet through research, exploration and scientific advancement Education of people of all ages and demographics Always expressing an unbiased and informed view of current events
Producing a brand iceberg of the National Geographic allows for the organisation to be broken down, showing their visible values, the essence of what they do, and the core values they hold. One of the recurring themes that National Geographic has, is the sharing of knowledge for the improvement of our planet. On all fronts, they strive for a better understanding of what is around us, and then aim to help our environment using this new knowledge.
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South Alberta, Canada
FORECAST
STEVE 2013 What is the state of society in 2013? Current contextual issues greatly affect businesses and non-profits alike; Analysis methods, such as this STEVE, are used to highlight global changes in a range of areas in order to pinpoint trends, that may be currently affecting a company or may affect them in the future.
SOCIAL & POLITICAL •
Socially orientated consumerism.
•
Urbanisation with 50% of worlds population now living in cities.
•
People now communicating more digitally then face to face.
•
A further increase in multiculturalism.
TECHNOLOGICAL
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•
Growing trend towards on-demand content.
•
Free content’s popularity increasing
•
Startup culture has seen technology driven companies rise to global success in less then 3 years.
•
25% of Americans own a tablet, 33% read on a tablet or e-reader. The number of Americans that read printed books are down 5% on last year to just 67%.
Our lives have been revolutionised by the internet once, but perhaps we are still only just getting to know these new tools?
ECONOMIC •
Loss of trust with banking institutions.
•
Charitable donations down 20% in the past year.
• Wealth inequality involving the rise of global super rich. Currently the top 1% of population has 40% of total wealth.
VALUES • Society becomes more materialistic with 76% believing others in society are more selfish and materialistic then they were 10 years ago. •
More accepting of different cultures.
• Technology brings about the online disinhibition of social restrictions and inhibitions that would otherwise be present in normal face-to-face interaction. •
Everyone wants their own voice heard.
•
Decreased brand loyalties with a greater focus on the quality of individual products.
ENVIRONMENTAL •
Increased awareness of the environmental impact of print and the benefits of digital.
• Generation Z born into an environmentally conscious world. • Resource scarcity and conservation becoming more and more noted.
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STEVE 2013 What does this mean for National Geographic?
PRIMARY ISSUES The rise in popularity of free content is where some of the issues lie for National Geographic in trying to maintain paid subscribers, when information is being put out online for free.
Through the increase in multi-culturalism, people will begin to experience other cultures and different places more naturally, desensitising them to a portion of National Geographic’s content.
A decreased loyalty to brands could be a good sign, with National Geographic providing consistently high quality content, they have the opportunity to grab more readers.
SECONDARY ISSUES
With an increase in concern over the environmental impacts of print versus digital, National Geographic may have to begin to move away from their traditional magazine.
Being a society, National Geographic will likely be effected by the drop in charity contributions. Having already seen a decline in their financial contributions, this prediction could worsen their situation.
The startup culture, combined with the increasing popularity of the internet has already seen the birth of competitors to National Geographic, and there’s no reason why this won’t stop.
Mumbai, India
OFF=ON What is Off=On?
2013
34%
2020
66%
With 2.4 billion people online today (34% of the global population) the Off=On trend sees businesses that are traditionally situated in an offline physical world reaching out through online mediums in order to continue to attract followers. With an estimated 5 billion people online in 2020 (a staggering 66% of people) this trend stands to become ever more important to the future of businessesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; survival. Although Off=On encompasses many aspects of a strategy, there are two key areas of interest: Born Online With customisation being a big part of personalising a digital environment, being capable of translating that to the physical world is something that has seen much success. From being able to design your own t-shirts, to having your face printed onto a super hero.
Digital Lifestyle Lubricants These products serve to simplify the link between the online and offline worlds for the user. Features such as instant uploads from cameras to YouTube and codes sold with toys to allow the user to access related online content, are likely to increase in popularity as more people search to bring more aspects of their lives online.
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One of the great aspects of Off=On is the opportunities that it provides to well established offline businesses to expand and appeal to new customer, previously inaccessible. Through the application of new technology, Off=On also facilitates the introduction of new mediums through which a brand can better interact with its users. The rate of advancement however can prove difficult for offline native businesses to keep up with. For example, National Geographic not only needs to compete with direct rivals, but also online services that may offer parts of what National Geographic do, such as Flickr being used by photographers to publish their work.
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TRENDS What else is trending? Crowdsourcing Crowdsourcing comes from the idea of a person outsourcing work to an external community, saving the person time, and money. Sites such as Amazon and Kickstarter utilise the power of the crowd to enhance and fund their platforms already, with Kickstarter in particular showing much success. Through providing a platform for crowd funding, Kickstarter allows small entrepreneurs to gain access to investors globally. Additionally, crowdsourcing encourages brand loyalty through providing a stake within the brands output, thus maintaining a relationship with the customer.
Big Data Technology surrounds us, in 2001 smartphone ownership was at 1%, today this figure is closer to 22%. Being saturated with technology, more and more of our lives are being recorded and logged, creating a trend in Big Data. All the masses of information being collected have the potential to hold key insights into our behaviour as a society as well as individuals. Google Maps is an excellent example, where they document most of the world, right down to the street level to create an easily accessible database for users.
2006
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2013
Localizasian Localizasian is a term used to denote the growing economic climate in Asia. No longer will products just be “Made in China”, but actually made for China, with Asia’s global consumer spending expecting to rise to 40% in 2030 from just 14% in 2011. This growth will fuel a new wave of businesses that will start to cater to the rising classes within China. With domestic businesses then being able to provide what Asian’s require, the need for import/export (such as the West’s reliance for manufacture) will greatly decrease. A current example of this is Spring Airline, an airline service which provides a catered service for Asians, particularly China, where their headquarters are based.
40% 2030
14% 2013
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TRENDS What does this mean? How is this effecting how we socialise? With this massive increase of technology in our daily lives, the methods of social interaction are changing. People have the capability to constantly update one another, and maintain relationships from across the world. Whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s more, the technology facilitates the ability to capture moments in increasing detail, creating a history of memories for people to look back on. New services have taken advantage of this social interaction through technology, by creating communities that provide feedback to one another. Websites such as Flickr allow members to upload their photos and follow one another, creating a constant form of communication between members that would otherwise be difficult in the physical world.
How is this effecting how we learn? The technology also facilitates new methods of education. Over the past few years new online based education services such as the Khan Academy have enabled people across the world to achieve basic qualifications, something which would otherwise be unreachable given their location. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s success is founded in the fact that it relies on people from around the globe to provide the content, which can then be shared to all the members. Whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s more, technology enhances the experience in class rooms, providing further means to help educate children.
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2030
STEVE 2030 What is the state of society in 2030? Following the modern day STEVE analysis and trend investigation, this page shall evaluate and consider the contextual issues that will effect our future world.
SOCIAL / POLITICAL •
General reduction in poverty and a raise in the global middle classes.
•
The average number of years of completed formal education is forecast to rise from 7.1 to 8.7. “The educational sector is likely to be both the motor and beneficiary of expanding middle classes. The economic status of individuals and countries will greatly depend on their levels of education”.
• Reduced gender inequality within education and high level employment roles. •
Lifespan increase to around 100 due to improvements in both healthcare practice and public knowledge of healthcare.
•
Better and faster identification of pathogens will reduce the number of pandemics and epidemics
• Widespread ageing and a shrinking number of youthful countries. • Urban populations will likely increase from current 50% to around 60%.
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•
Global population predicted to be 8.3 billion by 2030.
•
Demand for food is predicted to rise 35% by 2030.
•
Annual global water requirements will reach 6,900 billion cubic meters in 2030, 40 percent above current sustainable water supplies.
•
By 2030 nearly half the world’s population will live in areas with severe water stress.
TECHNOLOGICAL • Emerging technologies, such as wireless communication systems, will increase individual empowerment and will aid in the mitigation of deep-seated national problems. •
The general public will be able to own genetically modified or enhanced pets.
• People will be able to purchase an utilise augmented reality contact lenses. •
Focus on hardware reduces as customers place more value on service.
•
Technology available to the general public for fully immersible iterations with in house entertainment and software.
• Integration of technology into humans becomes more prominent in developed countries .
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ECONOMIC • Central and Eastern Europe’s economic growth rate will plateau up towards 2020 and developing East Asia will start to see a steady decline in growth rate. •
South Asia and Latin America will both see a noticeable rise in GDP growth.
• Middle eastern growth will slow down from 2018 coinciding with a sharp increase in national GDP growth in Saharan Africa. •
2030 will see the first decrease in global GDP for some time and will continue until 2055.
•
The current developing world will see a dramatic decrease in working-aged people in their population while the opposite will be seen in the developing counties of that time (e.g. Sub-Saharan Africa).
VALUES •
People will be less worried about sharing private information. Will become used to sharing everything from DNA profile to caloric intake.
• Increased emphasis on mental health and gross national happiness metrics. •
Ethics towards scientific advancements will move away from personal and religious beliefs, towards understanding of the greater good.
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One of the key points is the changing demographic, and where National Geographic’s audience could shift.
ENVIRONMENTAL •
Demand for energy will rise dramatically (about 50%) over the next 15-20 years largely in response to rapid economic growth in the developing world.
• Global surface temperatures are predicted to increase by between 1.5 to 2 degrees centigrade. •
Generally, the contrast between wet and dry local climates will become more distinct with local weather patterns becoming more extreme.
• Global ocean temperatures could increase by 2 degrees centigrade. •
Sea levels will continue rises at an increased rate.
• CO2 in the atmosphere will be notably higher, leading to an increase in ocean acidification which will greatly impact marine life. • Consumption of materials per person will increase by around 50% by 2030.
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STEVE 2030 What does this mean for National Geographic?
PRIMARY ISSUES As the value of education increases, National Geographicâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s position will be strengthened. As a provider of information and as well as the means to educate, this should be a key focus for them.
A rise in the middle class will be beneficial for National Geographic, having itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s main target reader in that demographic. Through adjusting to the other changes, they will likely be in a strong position with a healthy customer base.
With the growth in South Asia and Latin America, there would be opportunity for National Geographic to tap into new potential markets
SECONDARY ISSUES
The fact that ethics for scientific advancements will shift, likely mean that National Geographic will have the opportunity to cover new, more diverse areas with a range of fields being utilised. An increase in the urban population could mean that National Geographic would be able to publish work, that once again show areas less inhabited by people, a stark contrast to the majority of the population.
Advancements in technology will mean that not only will National Geographic be better equipped for their own expeditions, but could offer them new mediums in which to interact with their consumers.
Yucatรกn, Mexico
MARKET EFFECTS What will National Geographic’s market look like?
RISE OF THE MIDDLE CLASSES
2013 1.8bn 2020 3.2bn 2030 4.9bn
Global middle class population predictions
ASIA EUROPE N.AMERICA
0.32bn
0.68bn
3.2bn
Estimated population of middle class in different continents
76% of National Geographic’s readership come from the middle classes or higher. This demographic is predicted to significantly
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rise by 2030 especially in Asia, in line with the rising economic dominance of India and China.
SHIFTS IN ECONOMIC DOMINANCE
INDIA AMERICA CHINA
Top 3 countries by economic dominance
China’s rise as a superpower is inevitable. However, some argue that they will become a ‘premature’ superpower. This means that they will become dominant before they are rich enough to have a significant global
influence. Nonetheless they are an important emerging market for National Geographic to take into account in order to ensure success in the global marketplace of 2030.
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MARKET EFFECTS What will National Geographics market look like?
SHIFTS IN LANGUAGE DOMINANCE
2013 MANDARIN
1.2 Billion
ENGLISH
915 Million
SPANISH
495 Million
1.6 Billion
Hypercentral language
MANDARIN
995 Million
ENGLISH
610 Million
HINDI
2030 Top 3 languages - now and predicted
English is currently the ‘Hypercentral’ language that connects speakers of all other ‘Supercentral’ languages. However with the rise of economic power in Asia there is predicted to be a dramatic increase in the number of Hindi and Mandarin speakers.
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With the rise of trends such as ‘Localizasian’ the need for native Mandarin and Hindi speakers to also speak English will fall. This could weaken the global influence of English and should be considered for National Geographics future.
AN AGEING POPULATION 2013
2030
12.9%
19%
% of population over the age of 65
2013 I’m 28
2030 I’m 34
Median age of average person
The impacts of an ageing population are vast. However, there are aspects of this that could benefit the National Geographic. With their current infrastructure they target an older demographic. With this market predicted to swell, the content that National Geographic
provides will have a potentially bigger market. However this ‘ageing’ population of Gen X and Y are the market that are currently not being captured. Therefore the need to differentiate to regain interest will be a key factor in National Geographic’s success.
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PERSONAS Who will be National Geographic’s customers?
The Legacy Subscriber: John Schweers “National Geographic Has Always Been There, It’s Like An Old Friend” Demographic: 60, Married, Father Of 3. Geographic: Inner City, Vermont, US Psychographics: Likes hiking, collects National Geographic Magazine and has them all in a bookshelf in his lounge. Children have left home and one is still in college. Adoption Curve:
Innovator
Early Majority
Late Majority
Laggards
Professional Background: Insurance broker for 21 years. Previously an accountant at a large tax firm. Worked at a gas station during college. Personal Background: Photography enthusiast in his younger years. Was sceptical about climate change but changes in climate over recent years have swung his opinion. Technical Background: Has an active social media presence and participates in online competitions and forums. Uses tablets and ebooks but sparingly and is unsure of new technologies.
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The Digital Native: Catherine ‘Kit’ Rees “In today’s world, National Geographic reminds me what nature really is” Demographic: 23, Highly Educated, Middle class, Youngest Of 3 sisters. Geographic: Rennes, France. Travels to East Europe often. Psychographic: Self empowered. Dedicates most of her time to online presence and entertainment. Believes strongly in the protection of untainted species and world. Adoption Curve:
Innovator
Early Majority
Late Majority
Laggards
Professional Background: Augmented Reality Social Engineer. Previously worked as a web developer for a wildlife charity. Personal Background: Big on digital DIY and home automation. Travels whenever possible and visits family physically. Also owns a large amount of outdoor ‘adventure’ products. Technical Background: Dual presence both online and offline. Highly capable user of web based technology and uses online education platforms regularly. Gadget aficionado.
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PERSONAS Who will be National Geographic’s customers?
The Potential: Htain Sang “Games are fun, but I like turtles” Demographic: 12, large medium-high income family, Geographic: New highly urbanised area, Mandelay, Burma Psychographics: Curious, Desensitised (when compared to a 2013 child of the same age). Very restless and necessitates constant entertainment. Adoption Curve
Innovator
Early Majority
Late Majority
Laggards
Professional Background: National schooling along side online private tutoring. Personal Background: Plays and lives nearly always online. Taken to city zoo and aquarium a lot and has developed interest in animals and evolution. His father tells him stories of the countryside before the ‘digital revolution’. Technical Background: Born into technology rich world and has become a heavy online immersive gaming user.
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The Junior Editor: Daniela Caro â&#x20AC;&#x153;How do we keep giving awe to people who see wonder every day?â&#x20AC;? Demographic: 28, University educated, Geographic: London, England Psychographics: A natural creative, artistic, Adoption Curve:
Innovator
Early Majority
Late Majority
Laggards
Professional Background: National Geographic editor who receives reports and data and works with a team on constructing and publishing the National Geographics digital magazine. Used to work in print before her focus shifted in early years. Personal Background: Prolific blogger who keeps many pets and has a keen interest in the continuing political changes in far eastern countries. Technical Background: Proficient user of social media with thousands following her blogs through a variety of online portals.
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TECHNOLOGY What will be happening in 2030?
TECHNOLOGICAL SHIFTS 2013
2030
5 Billion
1.5 Billion
Number of people online on a mobile device
MIPS 750 Million
Median 1985 tren
500 Million 250 Million 1 Million 750 Thousand 500 Thousand 250 Thousand 1000 2013
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
Moores Law predictions for the future.
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2027
2029
More than 50% of the worlds population will have mobile access to the internet. This gives more people channels to voice their own opinions.
2013 +87%
MIPS 750 Million 500 Million 250 Million
Median 1985 trend.
Number of Americans willing to share personal information
1 Million 750 Thousand 500 Thousand 250 Thousand 1000
In a recent study 87% of Americans said that they were willing to share private information if there was a benefit for them. Looking ahead to 2030 there is an emerging trend of â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Open dataâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; within which much of our personal information will become public knowledge. This is something that people will become accustomed to. At the current increasing rate of MIPS (million instructions per second) it is predicted that by 2030, raw computer processing power will mean that in an 2013 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025will be2027 equivalent sized computer to the human brain able to 2029 process just as much information. Computers with as much processing power as the brain
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URBANISATION What will be happening in 2030?
URBANISED POPULATION
8,000,000,000
60%
50%
With the rise of eastern countries reaching better states of development, the number of people living in urban areas will rise to 60%; 10% above the figure today. With 8 billion people in the world, this will result in 4.8 billion people living in cities. Comparatively, the number of people living in urban areas in high income countries will only rise marginally. This results in new markets developing in these countries that are seeing increased urbanisation, and new avenues to interact with consumers.
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EFFECTS
As more and more people are living in urban environments, space becomes a luxury and fewer people will have the capability of keeping a garden. As a result more people will be buying indoor house plants, or possibly window hanging plants.
83% % of households buying plants
139
amphibians
41
mammals
25
birds
However with this urban expansion, itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s expected that the land required to reach this number would result in a loss of biodiversity. A total of around 200 animals on the Critically Endangered or Endangered Lists of the International Union for Conservation of Nature will likely have their habitats damaged or destroyed.
One of the other key issues is the distance of the cities with protected areas. For example, in Eastern Asia, the average distance from a city to a protected area will be 14 miles by 2030, as compared to 27 miles in 1995. These have impacts on the local resources as well as potentially threatening the habitats of the animals.
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HAPPINESS What will be happening in 2030?
DEPRESSION AND EDUCATION The number of people afflicted by depression is expected to rise to the point where by 2030, depression will be the most common disease, surpassing cancer and heart disease.
350,000,000
A study conducted by the Telegraph has revealed that people with higher education feel considerably better about themselves. It compared various levels of education with happiness levels, and found that 81% of people who had A-Levels had a happiness rating of 7 out of 10.
81%
With depression being such a big issue by 2030, a possible solution would be to better educate people, thus improving how they feel about themselves, consequently increasing their happiness metric.
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With depression growing to be a big problem, one possible solution is the use of education.
HAPPINESS METRICS Currently Bhutan is a firm believer in happiness metrics, adopting Gross National Happiness over the traditional GNP. Theyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve stated that they believe the happiness of the state is the most important factor, and is the best indicator for the quality of life of itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s citizens. The GNH can be broken down into:
Social
Financial Mental
Physical Environmental
Political Workplace
For some time companies have adopted the method of assessing quality of life through well being, however this number is expected to rise. As well as more companies, some countries are considering adopting this method to measure the quality of life.
The fact that happiness metrics are becoming more popular is a clear indication of its success. Combined with the increase in the number of people with depression, it would be wise to consider ways to improve peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s happiness, through other facets than just mental capabilities.
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FUTURE ENERGY What will be happening in 2030?
SHIFTS IN ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
2013
12.5TW
2030
16.9TW
Global energy demand 2013 and predicted
With a predicted population increase to 8.32 billion people, our global energy demand is predicted to rise significantly. Energy usage and environmental impact are key issues for National Geographic, so in order to cope with this demand, new sources of energy would be required.
2013 2030
1.9% 4.5%
Nuclear energy global usage 2013 and predicted
Despite some controversy regarding nuclear power and nuclear waste, the obvious benefits mean that it will no doubt continue to become more popular. Nuclear Fission still takes a significant amount of energy, unfortunately Nuclear Fusion is not predicted to become so widespread even in 2030.
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SOLAR
A team led by IBM Research have created a High Concentration PhotoVoltaic Thermal (HCPVT) system that is capable of concentrating the power of 2,000 suns onto hundreds of triple junction photovoltaic chips measuring a single square centimetre each. They claim it would take only 2% area coverage of the Sahara desert to meet the worlds energy needs using this technology. Whilst this is only in development, it is still very promising. It is no surprise then that it is predicted that 25% of the worlds energy demands could realistically met using solar power by 2030.
Japan planning to harvest Solar energy from space by 2030
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FUTURE ENERGY What will be happening in 2030?
SOLAR
25%
Solar Power
25% of world energy supply could come from Solar Innovations in wind power over the next 15 years such as Airborne wind turbines will be one factor that promotes the use of this sustainable energy source. Airborne wind turbines are currently 65% more efficient than standard turbines and as a relatively new technology, it is predicted to become even more efficient. It is no wonder then why wind power is predicted to become more prevalent by 2030.
Airborne wind turbines
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WIND
3D 3D
2D
3H
2D
3H 2030
2H
2030 2020
D
2H
D H
2020
2013 H 2013
Wind: 5.5% (188 TWh) Wind: 5.5% (188 TWh)
2013 2013
Wind: 13.4% (523 TWh) Wind: 13.4% (523 TWh)
2020 2020
Wind: 22.6% (965 TWh) Wind: 22.6% (965 TWh)
2030 2030
Increases in wind power up to 2030
Over the next 2 decades, the overall size of the traditional wind turbine is expected to triple up to 3 times the diameter of current turbines. The actual energy output will steadily rise too, in itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s contribution to global energy.
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EXPLORING SPACE What will be happening in 2030?
As mentioned already, Japan are aiming to be able to harness solar power from space based power stations. However other nations also have equally ambitious plans for the future.
Russia is planning to have manned missions to Mars, having people actually walk on the surface. They are also planning to have a network of unmanned moon bases, with robots collecting samples from the surface. NASA have also outlined a plan to send a man to Mars, although they also plan to initially land on an asteroid, as a land mark to demonstrate the potential of deep space flight.
Earth
2025
2030
Asteroid
Mars
On the other hand, Virgin are currently working on a commercially viable form of space flight, aimed at the public to give them the opportunity to experience space. Expected to be available in 2014, the flight offers 6 minutes of weightlessness, with the independent space craft being in flight for 2 and a half hours. All this is offered at the cost of ÂŁ200,000.
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Earth, Milky Way
CHANGING WORLDS How will National Geographicâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s world change?
2013 READERSHIP National Geographics readership in 2013 is highly rooted in its home country of the United States, with a significant readership within Europe.
CONTENT The majority of the content comes from developing areas that may not not be well known or covered through other sources, with some of the content coming from space and the deep sea.
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With the changing world, National Geographicâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s audience will likely shift to be more global.
2030 READERSHIP The localizasian trend coupled with the rapid increase of development within Africa, is expected to result in National Geographic experiencing a rise in readership from these locations
CONTENT With a more global readership, the content will start to focus on areas that are less populated by people such as the deep sea. Alongside the advancements in technology including space, which will also become a larger part of their content.
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WHAT NEXT? After a comprehensive analysis of National Geographic, it is clear that in order to ensure a secure future, a change in direction is imperative. One that is more considered to a generation where the majority of the worlds population will have access to information from across the world, through smart devices. In this section we propose a possible redirection based on our analysis of National Geographic and the contextual issues that will affect the organisation in the future.
REPOSITIONING
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KEY INSIGHT Our key insight tries to tie in the key aspects of the brand reposition into one sentence, using it as a spearhead for the restructure, and individual proposals.
“COLLECTIVELY EXPLORING OUR WORLD THROUGH TECHNOLOGY”
National Geographic used to be “Exploring” is the essence
a pioneer through the technology
of National Geographic.
they used. Reinvigorating them with
It’s what they’ve funded,
a new wave of tech, where the limits
recorded and promoted
are pushed, would take them back
throughout their history
to their roots but in a new age.
The crowdsourcing and social
This is the content. Alexander
trends all point towards the
Graham Bell once said ‘The
creation of a community, utilising
world and all that is in it is our
the idea of a group of people
theme’, with ‘Our’ particularly
collectively working together
hinting at exploring together.
Beyond individuals.
REPOSITION SUMMARY USER
EXPLORER
ENCOURAGE CONSERVATION
NEW TECHNIQUES TO EXPLORE
BETTER EDUCATION OF THE PUBLIC
INFORMATION TO CREATE STORIES
GAMIFICATION
BIG DATA
SOCIAL NETWORKING
GLOBALISATION
CONNECTED EDUCATION
CROWDSOURCING
PROMOTION OF EDUCATION THROUGH EXPLORATION
INTERPRETATION OF INFORMATION
THE USER IS THE EXPLORER
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BREAKDOWN IN 2013, THE USER AND THE EXPLORER ARE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES
WHAT NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC WANTS TO ACHIEVE
THE MAIN ISSUES THAT ARE EFFECTING NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHICS ADAPTATION TO THESE TRENDS WILL GIVE NEW OPPORTUNITY FOR THEM TO ANALYSE NEW INFORMATION
IN 2030, THE USER WILL BECOME AN EXPLORER FOR NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
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EXISTING STRUCTURE Currently the organisation works in a static linear fashion, where the information is collected through specialised explorers. An Editor then uses this in the creation of their content, which is then presented through their various touchpoints.
EXPLORER
EDITOR
TOUCHPOINT
USER
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PROPOSED STRUCTURE In parallel to their current structure, we suggest a dynamic model which relies on the flow of information in a cyclical structure. Through the implementation of an online platform, the user becomes the explorer, creating a community of citizen scientists.
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
COMMUNITY PLATFORM
TOUCHPOINT
USER
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A CLOSER LOOK Through specific products, National Geographic can enable users to educate themselves, whilst collecting information.
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NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
COMMUNITY PLATFORM
TOUCHPOINT
Information obtained through a branded consumer product is uploaded to a community based social networking platform.
USER
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
COMMUNITY PLATFORM
TOUCHPOINT
National Geographic access this platform and start to collate the information collected by the user into a database.
USER
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
COMMUNITY PLATFORM
TOUCHPOINT
National Geographic analyse this information and draw conclusions to create new content for their future touchpoints.
TOUCHPOINT
The analysis of the community data is fed back to the user through touchpoints that are customised to the readers interests
USER
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
COMMUNITY PLATFORM
USER
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INFORMATIVE PHOTOGRAPHY NATURE HISTORY CURRENT EVENTS TRAVEL
COMMUNITY SOCIAL IMMERSIVE PLAY RE-EXPLORING
ENVIRONMENT POLITICS MAGAZINE TV CHANNEL WEBSITE EDUCATION
GIVING PEOPLE TOOLS TO LEARN EMPOWERING THE USER ANALYSIS OF BIG DATA CROWDSOURCING GAMIFICATION RICH HERITAGE PROMOTING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION CONCERN FOR THE WORLD EDUCATING PEOPLE
BRAND ICEBERG 2030
Actively keeping readers informed using relevant information from communities Create a community of citizen scientists, with a concern for their local environment Raise public awareness of the natural environment, and the animals that inhabit it Stewardship of the planet through research, exploration and scientific advancement
The key element of the new brand iceberg is that the old elements are still a persistent part of the brand. As stated, the new system would run in parallel to the old structure, so its key that the new surface, essence and core values work alongside
Education of people of all ages and demographics Always expressing an unbiased and informed view of current events
each other, whilst still providing a new element to the business.
PRODUCT LANGUAGE DESIGN ETHIC National Geographicâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s content is always the focus. In this fashion the products should be focused around the function. The aesthetic should be minimal yet through materials show attributes to the companies heritage. For the purposes of exploration the products should be rugged, whilst being understandable to bridge cultures.
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KNOWLEDGE
ADVENTURE
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RUGGED
MINIMAL
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HERITAGE
ORGANIC
CULTURE
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MATERIALS These materials were chosen based on two main factors. To represent the brand ethic through sustainability, but also with consideration to the target markets, manufacture and context in 2030.
Bamboo is able to be grown quickly, and with few additional supplements. Technology is also developing to allow for varied uses of bamboo such as with composites. Furthermore, the increase in the Asian markets would lead, to choosing materials that would suit the rising culture.
Bioplastic offers all the advantages of traditional plastic, but ensures minimal impact to the environment at the end of life. Furthermore it allows for flexibility in product aesthetic.
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Glass has the potential to be recycled repeatedly, as well as having a simple minimal aesthetic. In the product this would ideally be used for interfaces such as screens, given the drive for more advanced inclusive technological products.
Recycled aluminium is an excellent example of a sustainable material. It would allow for the design of products that are rugged, long lasting and minimal.
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Collectively Working for a Better Future
Closer then you think
WHAT’S OUT THERE? Ryan de Mello
There is an estimated 100 million stars in our milky way, the possibilities of what could exist are endless, and the limits of human exploration will only expand. With space travel becoming more and more a realistic possibility to the average person, the curiosity for what’s out there will only grow. Giving people the tools to learn about the great expanse would better educate them in understanding the next frontier of exploration. Using a combination of GPS and tilt sensors, a device can be created that utilises the use of traditional telescopic principles with a digital mapped view of space. This would enhance the users view of what they see normally, and provide them with further information about what they’re looking at to better educate them about space. These devices would also be able to collect new information and then help to create a map of new dynamic events currently occuring in space. National Geographic can then be informed about them as it creates a network of data sources. Analysis of this data could lead to new discoveries, or realisation of new patterns and shifts in space.
National Geographic can then improve the existing system and use the information for their own records
If the telescope detects a new object, it can record it and send the information to National Geographic
The telescopic device can be kept in users home for their own use
Proxima Centauri
The device will pick up on key planets and stars within the scopes view
Gliese 581 d
Proxima Centauri
User has the option to learn more about specific planets or stars from that view
Distance from Earth: 4.243 light years Surface Temperature: 3042 kelvin Constellation: Centaurus
Gliese 581 d
PLANT SPOTTING Luke Anthony Firth Horticulture and gardening are some of the most popular hobbies in the world today and with expected increases in both the urban population and environmental awareness the market for nurtured indoor gardens in particular stands to grow substantially. Through the use of DNA bar-coding users can identify the species of any plant or flower they have found in their explorations through non-invasive testing and find out where more of them have been spotted, if and where they can be sourced for their own garden, useful care information and even what other plants have been spotted nearby waiting to be found. This design direction provides a crowdsourced platform for National Geographic to quantify flora numbers, types and locations, providing the ability to find new species as well as monitor those invasive or endangered and even cross reference plant data against urban pollution to provide data on how â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;greenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; a city really is through the big data created from browsing users.
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Pen-like pocket clip?
Aluminium housing to protect sensors
Key ring? Simple display screen
Bio scanner to press against material
Bamboo handle to encourage a tactile relationship with living materials Bio scanner clips, sit either side of living material
1
2
3
Find a plant or flower you want to know more about.
Simply place some of the plant material between the sensor blocks.
Close the sensor pads across the plant material so that it comes into clean contact.
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UNSEEN WORLDS Roberto Mafrici
With virtual reality just around the corner, a whole new frontier for exploration is looming on the horizon. The question is, with a technology which has almost limitless possibilities for synthetic experience, how do we maintain the awe and wonder of our physical reality? By utilizing the advancing sophistication of 3D microscopic lazer scanning technology, my product encourages the user to explore the beauty of our unseen world. The high-resolution 3D images created by the product can be explored at varying scales within digital space on the users VR platform of choice. These 3D worlds could then be edited, shared and combined on different digital platforms to create new and unique environments for education, recreation and gaming. These platforms relate to the rising trends of an elderly population, a more prominent focus on well being and an extensive, accessible education system. The design platform will also provide national geographic with a huge materials database as well as stunning, high-resolution imagery that can be fed back into future issues. By using big data in this way we will not only further our knowledge of the material world but also express its inherent beauty at all scales.
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Edit your collected files using the devices smart touch interface.
Save your scanned environments on the inbuilt memory cards and use them to sync to your augmented reality devices.
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THIRD EYE Taalib Minhas
Conveying exploration has always been at the heart of National Geographic. Looking at our environment from a perspective that fills you with awe and wonder making you appreciate and care about our natural world. A world that has always been out of reach for most, until now. With developments in transportation technology such as, magnetic levitation trains and autonomous high speed road networks the world and all that is in it will be at our doorstep. Exploration will be possible for anyone and with 60% of the worlds population living in cities, demand for getaways to the natural world is predicted to rise. It is here that National Geographic can facilitate tools to make anyone an explorer. Introducing Bao, named after the famous Chinese explorer Hong Bao, reflective of National Geographic’s repositioning as a global brand. Bao uses cutting edge imaging spectrometry and lasers, which can map the landscape that is being explored. Users can find out what is immediately around them but also capture detailed fully immersive 3D data that then allows the landscape to be ‘Re-explored’ on whichever augmentation platform the user owns. This data can also be shared with fellow citizen scientists through National Geographic’s online platform facilitating ‘mini-escapes’ in the busy connected world of the future. When walking through a rainforest Bao can be sent ahead to find out what is to come or search for particular wildlife / agriculture that the user is looking for. If used whilst climbing Bao can let the user know what the peak has to offer. The data collected through imaging spectrometry can be used by National Geographic to gain a better understanding of how our natural environment works. This understanding gained could lead to insights that help solve major global issues in 2030, such as unexplainable forest loss.
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Bao
Initial product and augmented interface visualisation
BRANDING
BAMBOO COMPOSITE
GLASS FIBRE REINFORCED COMPOSITE
EXPLORER SCORE
1490
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EXPLORE AND PLAY David Walker
Primarily targeted towards children and teenagers, this design aims to educate individuals through the enjoyment and excitement of learning. To achieve this it offers an incentive through a connected gaming device and platform. By putting this product (which resembles a contemporary jam-jar) over a small creature, bug or insect, users are presented with a range of relevant information about the organism. After encountering a new creature, users will then own a digital avatar relating specifically to what they have found. These can be traded and battled among friends, with rare ecological finds providing better avatars. Through the use of this device, National Geographic will be able to obtain a large amount of information about local ecologies. By promoting a community of young adventurers, not only will the organisation be able to educate future generations on environmental issues, but also develop a priceless index of data for future analysis and publication content.
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Ryan de Mello - Luke Firth - Roberto Mafrici Taalib Minhas - David Walker