ON THE RISE by Realogics Sotheby's International Realty

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on the rise 在上升 by jessica melin

COMING SOON - Plus Investment’s Mixed-Use, High-Rise Development in Downtown Bellevue, Washington in the United States.

on the rise

在上升

n the wake of the global credit crunch of 2008 and the economic recession that followed, the pipeline for high-rise condominiums was effectively shut down across the US. For years buyers sat on the sidelines, construction lenders tightened their purse strings and developers focused on selling their existing inventory instead of planning new buildings. But as market fundamentals improved so did consumer confidence giving rise to a new cycle of developers willing to step out, often times without construction lenders. Today they are introducing exciting new residences in first tier, gateway markets like New York, Miami, Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles. And that’s welcome news to brokers and buyers alike.

“At the peak in 2008 downtown Seattle had eighteen projects under construction representing more than 2,500 new condominium units,” - Dean Jones “在2008年的投资高峰期时，西雅图市中心的在建项目的18个项目中，总共有超过 2500个公寓单位 ” 迪恩•琼斯说。

伴随着2008年金融风暴，遍及全球的信贷出现大规模紧缩，随之而来的经济衰退对美国房产市场造成史上最沉重打击。因此全美对高层公寓需求也随时降温。多年来买家远离市场，各类贷款机构则收紧银根，各开发商也专注于销售其现有库存，而不是规划新项目。但随着市场基本面逐渐改善，消费信心的逐步回升，受此利好影响的开发商又开始了新一轮规划和开发，虽然也会面临没有建设贷款的情况。目前开发商们已经在以下城市推出了一系列令人兴奋的新项目，如纽约、迈阿密、西雅图、旧金山和洛杉矶。这绝对是个备受经纪人和买家欢迎的好消息。 “At the peak in 2008 downtown Seattle had eighteen projects under construction representing more than 2,500 new condominium units,” said Dean Jones, Principal of Seattle-based Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty. “Today less than 1-percent of that developer-owned inventory remains available and we’re in need of new product. The story is the same in many top tier cities throughout the US.”

“在2008年的投资高峰期时，西雅图市中心的在建项目的18个项目中，总共有超过 2500个公寓单位 ”迪恩•琼斯说。 “但现

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在已经只有不到1 ％的库存可供市场使用了，我们急需新的产品。这一局面在众多美国一线城市同时上演。 ” 市场紧缩-上图说明了历年西雅图市中心的新建公寓项目供应情况，很明显，在近5年的时间内没有新屋上市，对此，经纪人表达了高度一致的观点：潜在买家正在期待新一轮发展浪潮。

Developers are finally playing catch up but when it comes to highrise development Jones suggests demand can rise much quicker than the supply. He says Seattle’s in-city housing market has been particularly strong given the meteoric job growth in the city. Corporate expansion at companies such as Amazon.com is drawing thousands of new residents for high-paying jobs there. There’s an unprecedented boom of highrise apartment buildings underway but Jones says it’s almost exclusively for rent. 开发商正试图追赶市场上高增长需求的步伐，琼斯说，但需求的增长往往要比市场供应的节奏更快。琼斯指出，西雅图市区的住宅市场一直受到强有力的就业增长的支撑。众多表现优秀的企业如Amazon公司，其企业的发展和扩张提供了上千的高薪工作机会，由此市场上出现了更多的潜在买家。目前在西雅图的高层公寓正以前所未有的速度兴建中，琼斯指出，这几乎将全部用于出租。 “The only funding for new development has been Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT’s) and pension funds, which typically won’t loan on speculative for-sale development,” adds Jones. “There are thirty new residential projects under

construction yet only one is for sale. Ownership is being underserved and the market is escalating because of the supply and demand imbalance.” “目前推动市场发展的资金渠道来源于不动产信托（REIT）和养老基金，因此通常不会对投机性的出售提供贷款。”琼斯补充道，“现在有30个新建住宅项目，但仅有1 个是用于出售的。因为市场上的供需失衡，所以购买力显得有所不足。” That lone development called Insignia is being built by Bosa Development, a developer known to have a great sense of timing. The Vancouverbased developer was among the first to invest in downtown San Diego during the last cycle and recently rebooted San Francisco’s urban housing cycle. Now they say it’s Seattle’s turn. Bosa开发公司目前正在进行这唯一的，被称为Insignia的开发项目，Bosa是一家对市场时机拥有敏锐感知力的开发商。 “We’re fortunate to have the leadership, vision and resources to move forward at the speed of opportunity – that’s our trademark,” says Mark Sager, Director of Community Development for Bosa Development. “Our buyers will be moving into their homes when most other developers will break ground. We believe in building value with our homebuyers.” “我们很庆幸，拥有卓越的领导力、市场远见、广泛的资源以及可以及时掌握这一机会的反应速度，这些都是我们显著的标志”Bosa开发公司的社区发展总监马克.萨格尔说道，“当其他开发商正准备破 MARKET MAKER - Insignia in downtown Seattle features 707 luxury condominiums and will deliver the first tower (on the left) by mid-2015 – more than two years before other for-sale developments are anticipated to arrive. 市场领导者--Insignia项目在西雅图市中心能提供 707套豪华公寓，并将在 2015年中期推出第一座高层公寓楼（图中右侧塔楼），这将比市场上其他开发商的同类用于出售的项目提前了至少2年以上！

New Construction Condominiums Making a Come Back in the US 新公寓楼开工建设正强势席卷全美

OVERSEAS OVERVIEW–Angela Wong and Dean Jones are shown here presenting US real estate opportunities during a seminar in Shanghai. The trade delegation also visited Beijing and Hong Kong drawing scores of prospective buyers. 海外综述--Angela 伍家寶和 Dean Jones在上海向中国的投资人介绍美国房地产投资机会。这一代表团还到访北京和香港并会见了很多有意向的客户和投资人。

土动工他们的项目时，我们的客户已经从容的入住了他们的房子，我们深信为客户创造了真正的价值。” Bosa Development started construction on Insignia in 2012 without a construction lender and will deliver their first of two towers in mid2015. They’ve already completed their first postrecession project in San Francisco called Madrone, which is now completely sold out.

rising rents and historically low interest rates are making condominium ownership increasingly attractive. Besides, buying in presale oftentimes means preferred pricing and the opportunity to personalize your home. We’re also seeing a return of purely discretional purchases such as second homes, alternatives to student housing and investor sales.” “这些开发商很清楚，并非所有的租客--买家都已回归，”琼斯说，“求职者可能考虑只是租1-2年，不过不断上涨的租金和处于历史地位的利率，会使得购买公寓的念头越来越具有吸引力。此外，预售期间的购买计划往往意味着更好的定价权和对自己的家个性化设计的机会。当然，我们也能看到一些买家有着更直接的目的，例如选择第二住宅，用于学生公寓以及纯投资。” 全面观--开发商越来越愿意通过传统的借

贷方式来启动项目，用以跟上新一轮高层公寓增长的潮流。如同罗威企业位于西雅图市中心Seneca大街1321项目，联合了海外基金合作开发。 Presales are not just for locals – they’re increasingly global. Kevin Brown, a Senior Global Real Estate advisor for Sotheby’s International Realty in New York City made headlines when he confirmed one of his presales in ONE57 tower was to a Chinese family who bought the $6.5 million condominium for their two-year-old daughter hoping she will one day attend a top-ranked university in the area.

Bosa的Insignia项目开工于2012年，而且没有进行贷款融资，双塔中的其中之一会在 2015年中期交付。Bosa第一个此类项目位于旧金山Madrone，目前已经售罄。 Other developers are eager to enter the market and they’re willing to use all cash if need be. Lowe Enterprises will soon break ground on a 169unit condominium tower at 1321 Seneca Street in downtown Seattle. To do so they’ve aligned with Alecta Real Estate USA, a subsidiary of Alecta, Sweden’s largest mutual pension company managing approximately $88.2 billion in assets. 目前其他开发商正急于进入市场，而且愿意动用所有现金储备。罗威企业即将破土动工的169单位的公寓楼位于西雅图市中心的Seneca街1321号。为了开发该项目，罗威企业已经联合美国Alecta房产公司，属于 Alecta公司的子公司，后者是瑞典最大的共济养老金管理公司，拥有$882亿美元资产。 “These developers understand that not everyone wants to rent – buyers are back,” says Jones. “Job seekers may choose to rent for a year or two but

PINCHED PIPELINE – The graphic above depicts the volume of new construction condominium inventory in downtown Seattle in its year of substantial delivery. With no new deliveries for five years and effectively no remaining product to purchase, brokers say presale buyers are waiting for the next wave of new developments. 市场紧缩--上图说明了历年西雅图市中心的新建公寓项目供应情况，很明显，在近5年的时间内没有新屋上市，对此，经纪人表达了高度一致的观点：潜在买家正在期待新一轮发展浪潮。

New Construction CondoS Are Making a Come Back in the US 新公寓楼开工建设正强势席卷全美

预售并非只是针对本地市场，而是日益全球化。凯文. 布朗，苏富比国际房地产公司国际事业部纽约高级经纪，曾经创造了闻名世界的头条新闻--在ONE57项目预售期间，向一个中国家庭出售了一处$650万美元的高层公寓，该家庭希望其2岁的女儿有朝一日能就读于该区域的顶级大学。 “It’s a more common occurrence than one might think,” says Brown. “If you have the means why not build equity within a rising market? We’ll have no problem leasing out the home for considerable sums in the interim. So in this case, our buyer is positioned for a great education and a great investment as well.”

on the drawing board 画板上

A world-class, mixed-use project is in planning for a key site in downtown Bellevue east of Seattle. The developer, an affiliate of Plus Investments Inc., will fund the project in part with foreign capital and hopes to introduce a new international class of development comprising flagship retail, a full service hotel, luxury apartments and sky-high condominiums. 在位于西雅图东部的Bellevue市中心热点位置一个世界级的项目，商住混合型大楼正计划启动。开发商，加上Plus投资公司，将引用部分海外投资来完成该项计划。该项目计划整合世界级的商业旗舰机构，能够提供全方位服务的高端酒店，高档公寓及顶级豪华公寓。

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“这要比人们的想象更为普遍，”布朗说，“如果你有办法，为什么不在一个上升的市场中达到某种平衡呢？在这段进入实用期前的过渡期，我们完全可以将这处房产租出去。所以，在这个案例中，我们的客户其实是在一个非常不错的阶段，完成了一笔伟大的教育和资产投资！” Brown says prices are typically higher upon completion. Case in point, he’s brought multiple offers to his Chinese clients to sell at prices up to fifty-percent higher than what they paid during presale. So far the answer is no.

IN THE KNOW - Stacy Jones and Scott Wasner of Seattlebased Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty visit the sales center for the Baccarat Hotel & Residences in New York City – an example of luxury condominiums being snapped up during presales well before the building is completed. 领先信息--斯泰西.琼斯和斯科特.瓦斯勒（苏富比国际房地产公司西雅图公司）正在参观位于纽约的 Baccarat Hotel & Residences酒店公寓项目销售中心，这是一个典型的在未完工前的预售期间即售罄的豪华公寓项目。

on the rise

在上升

ALL IN – Developers are increasingly willing to work around conventional lending in order to break ground on the next cycle of high-rise condominiums such as with 1321 Seneca Street in downtown Seattle by Lowe Enterprises who partnered with a foreign mutual fund. 全面观--开发商越来越愿意通过传统的借贷方式来启动项目，用以跟上新一轮高层公寓增长的潮流。如同罗威企业位于西雅图市中心Seneca大街 1321项目，联合了海外基金合作开发。

布朗说：“项目过了预售期后，价格就会更高”。这里有更典型的例子，当布朗向他的中国客户提供多处已经过了预售期的房产时，价格往往比之前高出50%，客户的答复当然是No。 “I suppose patience does pay,” muses Brown. “By the time a project is delivered, it’s almost always sold out. Those wanting instant gratification are typically willing to pay more.” “我的确付出了不少耐心”，布朗若有所思的说，“每当一个项目被交付，基本上便已售罄。那些临时前来的买家无疑只能面对更高的价格。” With presales you need to be ahead of the curve. Brokers often travel to Asia to promote upcoming projects in the pipeline, sometimes with nothing more than a vision and an address. For example, Brown became a top-selling broker at the Baccarat Hotel & Residences, because he believed in Barry Sternlicht – founder of Starwood Resorts & Hotels, W Hotels and the expanded St. Regis Hotel Group. 如果你想赶上预售的进度，就必须提前开始准备。经纪人经常来往亚洲与美国间，通过各种渠道来推广即将上市的房产项目，有时所推广的项目除了地址和效果图外还别无他物。例如，布朗成为了Baccarat Hotel & Residences酒店和住宅项目的最畅销经纪

人，因为他对开发商Barry Sternlicht充满信心，后者是Starwood Resorts & Hotel度假酒店，W Hotel 酒店及瑞吉酒店集团的创始人。 “It’s not his first project so you need to have a little faith,” adds Brown. “The developer has much more at risk than the buyers do. Reputation is everything and in my experience, most developers will go to great efforts to satisfy a customer. It’s my job to ensure that.” “这已经不是他的第一个开发项目，所以你当然能够有信心，”布朗补充道，“要知道，开发商面对的风险通常比市场上的买家们要大得多。就我的经验而言，信誉就是一切，大多数的开发商都会尽力去迎合客户的需求。我的经验让我对此具备了如此的信心。” Angela Wong agrees. As Vice President, International Marketing/Asia, based in the Los Angeles area with Ewing and Associates Sotheby’s International Realty she represents overseas buyers acting as their eyes and ears throughout the process. She’s led trade missions into Asia to promote projects such as the W Hollywood Residences in Los Angeles. Sometimes buyers purchase without first visiting the project.

耳朵的作用，来帮助这些海外客户完成投资。她曾率领代表团访问亚洲各地，以向海外的投资客户们推荐这些优质的项目，例如好莱坞的W Hotel酒店项目。在她积极的作用下，有时客户甚至会不前往美国便达成交易。 “I personally vet these developments before taking them to my clients,” says Wong. “That’s why we’re trusted the local experts, worldwide.” “早在向客户展示和推荐之前，我已经详细考察和审核过这些开发项目， ”伍女士说，“所以我们才会作为专家，受到全球范围内投资人的信任与推崇。”

Angela 伍家寶对此表示赞同。作为苏富比国际房地产公司洛杉矶地区的国际市场副总裁(亚洲)，伍女士表示，海外客户的投资过程中，她极好的充当了客户眼睛和 STANDING TALL - JDS Development Group is developing 111 West 57th Street overlooking Central Park in New York City. The skyscraper is anticipated to set new heights both in terms of elevation and property values. Recently completed, ONE57 is shown on the left as developers define a new gold coast on the island of Manhattan. 高高在上--JDS 开发集团正在开发位于纽约57街111号的项目，从这里可以俯瞰中央公园。这座摩天大楼将成为新的标杆，无论是其价值还是其高度。近期已经竣工的ONE57就位于这座摩天楼的左侧，如同开发商所设想和规划的，这里将是曼哈顿岛新的黄金海岸！

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