in this issue…
Putting a Face on Real Estate since 1995™
• Independence Title Lakeway Office Grand Opening • Berkshire Hathaway Homeservices Texas Realty Debut • ABoR/HBA Housing Forecast • and much, much more!
Associates in Progress
Two New
Communities pages 5 & 37
page 25 TM
FEBRUARY 2014 • VOLUME 18 • ISSUE 10
hay
darby
A Professional Limited Liability Company
Experts say expect a banner year in real estate By Stacy Hale
T
he 2014 Austin area Housing Forecast, co-hosted annually by the Austin Board of REALTORS and the Home Builders Association (HBA) of Greater Austin, was palpably more upbeat than several years past.
U.S. Economy: Dr. Greg Hallman, McCombs School of Business
Visit us online 24/7 at www.myRealtyLine.com
P. O. Box 81366, Austin, Texas 78708
TM
austin
RL
Putting a Face on Real Estate since 1995
Printed on recycled paper.
Presorted Standard U.S. Postage PAID Austin, Texas Paid Permit #715
Consumers The U.S. GDP is up since the recession let up in 2010. In Q3 of 2013 there was 4 percent annualized growth, which is significant. Unemploy-
ment is down. The maximum unemployment rate seen in the last few years is 10.1 percent, but it is currently at a national rate of 7 percent; however, the underemployment rate is 13 percent, and there has not been much improvement for the long-term unemployed. Almost 9 million jobs were lost during the recession, and 7 million have returned, so not everyone is back to work yet, leaving some slack in the labor market. Although household income has not improved since the drop in unemployment, household debt is lower. Consumers have paid down a lot of debt, and move-up buyers are poised to make the move. Interest Rates Interest rates remain low. The Federal Reserve has exhausted monetary policy measures and is now employing QE (“quantitative easing”) to keep interest rates low. QE is an unconventional monetary policy, in which a central bank purchases government-backed and other securities from the market in order to lower interest rates and increase the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital to promote lending. This measure keeps bond prices high and mortgage rates low. Currently, we are in the “tapering” phase of QE, in which the Fed slows down bond buying, hence the slight pickup in interest rates. Projections Overall, the U.S. economy is geared for growth. Interest rates showed a spike upward in May, but not much in December (4.25 percent). Rates are not expected to top 5.5 percent, but will probably reach 5 percent. With the Fed still holding measures to keep rates low, another year of good rates is in order. In the long run, to catch up to the U.S., other economies will have to spend much more money, and that will benefit our economy, and ultimately our real estate market.
Water: Carlos Rubenstein, Chairman, Texas Water Dev. Board Although there was much more rain fall in
2013, Central Texas is still technically experiencing a drought. Accordingly the Texas Water Development Board is focused on conservation. Proposition 6 was approved in November by just over 73 percent of the vote, authorizing the creation of the State Water Implementation Fund for Texas (SWIFT) and the State Water Implementation Revenue Fund for Texas (SWIRFT)—that will help finance projects. Proposition 6 authorized the release of $2 billion toward the SWIFT fund. The statute is focused on conservation, directing the utilization of no less than 20 percent of the funds toward ways to reuse water. Also, the board will use no less than 10 percent of the funds on rural and agricultural designated areas of Texas. The SWIFT advisory committee makes use of 16 regional water planning groups looking at Texas on a 50-year horizon. This timeline is significant, as we expect huge growth in Texas’ population within the next 50 years, creating a steep demand for more water. Right now, reservoirs in Central Texas are at 60 percent of capacity; they need to be above 80 percent to be out of the drought. With all the projects in play, the Water Development Board could more than address the current and future water needs of the state. Your input is vital to this process and you are encouraged to participate. Go to www.twdb. state.tx.us/swift and: • Review the Board’s preliminary list of issues needing stakeholder input • Attend a Board work session or stakeholder meeting to give your input • Send written comments to the Board • Attend a regional water planning group meeting in your part of the state • Subscribe to the SWIFT information e-mail list to receive regular updates
The Austin Market: Eldon Rude, Principal, 360° Real Estate Analytics Between 2000 and 2013, population grew from 1.2 million to 1.9 million in the Austin
Front Page: Continued on page 26
Upcoming Events Wednesday, February 19 CRS Bi-Monthly Meeting Westwood Country Club 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. HBA Hays County Chapter Cabela's/Buda - 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. NAHREP: ABoR Industry Award Panel - Abel's North - 4 to 7 p.m. North American Title Lakeway Office Grand Opening 1008 RR 620, Suite 102 - 5 to 8 p.m. Thursday, February 20 HBA Williamson County Chapter Teravista - 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. Friday, February 21 WC REALTORS Lunch & Learn WC Office - 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. Tuesday, March 4 Lakeway-Bee Cave Chapter/ HBA Social - Lakeshore Home Gallery 5 to 7 p.m. NAPMW Mardi Gras Masquerade Salt Lounge/iPic Theatre - 5 to 8 p.m. Wednesday, March 5 AMBA Monthly Meeting Austin Ctry Club - 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. More at www.myRealtyLine.com