Impact Regina December 2017
Executive Summary Counter to provincial trends, most economic indicators in the Greater Regina Area posted advances over the previous year as the GRA’s economy continues to expand. The only area of weakness observed was in government/institutional building permits: •
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Impact Regina
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Total employment in the Greater Regina Area was up 0.8% or 1,200 positions in January to November 2017 over the same period in 2016. Month over month changes, after three consecutive months of decline, advanced by 900 positions from November 2016 to November 2017. At the provincial level, year to date employment dropped by 900 or 0.2% over the same time period. Year-to-date employment in November 2017 was up over the same period in 2016 in agriculture (300), manufacturing (1,800), professional, scientific and technical services (900), healthcare (400), accommodation and food services (100), and public administration (700). Year-to-date employment in November 2017 was down in resource extraction (-200), utilities (-200), wholesale and retail trade (-300), finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (-800), business, building and other support services (-100), information, culture and recreation (-300), and other services (-300). Construction employment remains suppressed. Yearto-date November construction employment is down by 1000 positions from the same period in 2016. with stadium and K+S work complete, other construction activity in the region, such as the Regina bypass and new home construction, are not of sufficient scale to absorb all position losses. The average year-to-date unemployment rate remains low at 5.2%, down from 5.3% in November 2016. Year to date, number of unemployed is
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virtually unchanged from the same period in 2016, however, the number of unemployed dropped by 1000 persons when comparing November 2016 to November 2017. •
Total housing starts are up by 410 units or 31.3%, rising from 1,311 units in January to October 2016 to 1,721 units in January to October 2017. Increases were widespread across singles, semi-detached, row houses, and apartment units.
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January to October 2017 year to date building permits are up 0.7% over the same period in 2016. Most sub sectors posted increases: residential (16.5%), industrial (24.5%), commercial (53.1%), with only government/institutional permits showing a decline (-65.9%).
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Despite low inflation, the Bank of Canada’s first interest-rate hike in seven years occurred in July, 2017. The central bank raised its overnight lending rate to 0.75 per cent from 0.5 per cent in response to higher than anticipated growth. A second hike to 1.0 percent occurred in September. Higher rates are expected to help to cool the housing market and slow debt-fueled purchases.
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2016 population was up 2.6% over 2015 to 247,224 on the strength of international and intraprovincial migration. This can be expected to continue through 2017 with continued employment growth spurring further in-migration.
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The Conference Board of Canada forecasts Regina’s economy to post a 1.5 per cent real GDP gain in 2017, following a 0.7 percent drop in 2016.
Economic Indicators December 2017 Dashboard Employment Unemployment Rate (%)
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) Housing Starts Total (Units) Building Permits Total ($000s) Residential ($000s)
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s)
Population (persons) July 1
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M)
Chg
Nov 2016
Nov 2017
140,100
141,000
900
5.0
4.3
-0.7
Oct 2016
Oct 2017
133.4
136.3
2.9
147
149
66,043
Year to Date
% Chg
Chg
% Chg
Nov 2016
Nov 2017
0.6%
139,218
140,391
1,173
0.8%
-14.0%
5.3
5.2
-0.1
-1.5%
Oct 2016
Oct 2017
2.2%
133.0
134.8
1.8
1.3%
2
1.4%
1,311
1,721
410
31.3%
40,174
-25,869
-39.2%
601,599
605,883
4,284
0.7%
35,306
27,474
-7,832
-22.2%
283,660
330,558
46,898
16.5%
30,737
12,700
-18,037
-58.7%
317,939
275,325
-42,614
-13.4
2015
2016
240,868
247,224
6,356
2.6%
2016
2017
13,959
14,174
215
1.5%
Sources: Statistics Canada Cansim 2820128, 0270034, 326-0020, 0260003, 0510056, and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Spring 2017. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted.
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Impact Regina
Building Permits
Month to Month
Indigenous & Non-Indigenous Population Growth for the GRA: 2016 - 2036 Introduction The GRA has seen some strong growth over the last 10 years. This growth in population brings some challenges as well as a lot of opportunities. The GRA population is approximately 247,000 in 2016. This growth, however, is not in isolation. Significant growth within the Indigenous1 communities continues to positively impact the overall growth of the Regina GRA as well adding significant opportunities for the labour market, cultural expansion, and business investment opportunities. The Indigenous population is growing at a rapid pace in Canada, according to Statistics Canada. A growth of 42.5% to 1,673,785 occurred in the Indigenous population (including First Nations, MĂŠtis, or Inuit individuals) between 2006 and 2016. Statistics Canada forecasts that one in five people (20%) in Saskatchewan will be Indigenous by 2036, when the Indigenous population in Canada reaches the projected 2.5 million. The current growth in the Indigenous population is four times that of the rest of the population, with 175,015 people in Saskatchewan now identifying as Indigenous. An increase of 22.8% from 2006 occurred, with 11.7% of the Saskatchewan population identifying as Indigenous in 2016.
Impact Regina
Population Forecast A customized population forecast model was built for the Regina CMA. The population model is a simple cohort survival model using birth and death rates, and migration data from Statistics Canada. Population Forecast Non-Indigenous Population
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
224,288
252,766
280,234
306,212
330,875
Indigenous Scenario 1
22,628
26,215
30,272
34,655
39,308
Indigenous Scenario 2
22,628
26,742
31,250
36,131
41,320
Indigenous Scenario 3
22,628
35,433
49,879
65,694
82,502
It is important to note that according to Statistics Canada, aboriginal ancestry refers to whether a person has ancestry associated with the Aboriginal peoples of Canada, that is, First Nations (North American Indian), MÊtis, and Inuit. Ancestry refers to the ethnic or cultural origins of the person’s ancestors, an ancestor being usually more distant than a grandparent. A person can have more than one ethnic or cultural origin.
1
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Key Assumptions and Highlights Non-Indigenous Population Based on provincial average birth and death rates, provincial average propensity to in and out migrate by age group, and the last five year average rates of international, inter-provincial, and intra-provincial migration, a non-Indigenous population forecast was derived for the Regina CMA for 2016 to 2036.
100,000
Scenario 3
90,000 80,000
Scenario 2
70,000
Scenario 1
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
Indigenous Population Scenario 2 Another population projection was undertaken using a birth rate 1.5 times the provincial average and mortality rate 2.2 times the provincial average. Using Indigenous specific birth and fertility rates, Indigenous population advances from 9.2% to 11.1% in 2016, as population gains from higher fertility rates are largely offset by higher mortality rates. In order to meet the 20% provincial Indigenous population projection in 2036, net intraprovincial migration was recalculated.
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Impact Regina
Indigenous Population Scenario 1 For the Indigenous population, no age breakdown was readily available. Instead the age distribution for Piapot 75, the closest Indian reserve was applied to the CMA’s total Indigenous population. It should be noted that the average age of Piapot 75 is 26.3 years versus 36.8 years for the Regina CMA. It should also be noted that the population projections above were undertaken using Saskatchewan average fertility and mortality rates. In this case, the Indigenous population increases from 9.2% to 10.6% over the forecast period. However, there are a number of compelling studies indicating that aboriginal birth and mortality rates are significantly different from national (and hence, provincial) averages. The birth and mortality rates are adjusted in scenario two.
Indigenous Population Scenario 3 In scenarios one and two net-migration is estimated as the Indigenous share of total census division population applied to census division net migration. To recalculate the net intraprovincial migration, back-casting methodology was used to derive a new net migration multiplier of 2.65. One further assumption was applied in scenario three, Indigenous mortality rates are the provincial average while Indigenous fertility rates remain unchanged. Readjusting the net migration multiplier to meet the estimations of Statistics Canada and to adjust for the increased urbanization of rural communities, significant growth projection for the GRA begins to emerge. Population increase under scenario three will see a minimum increase of approximately 48% new people in Regina by 2036 as compared to the two other scenarios discussed.
Implications for Business Business implications are clear. Over the next 20 years, and beyond, the Regina CMA can expect a growing and increasing younger Indigenous population. Changes in this important demographic represents long term business opportunities. These include: • • •
Impact Regina
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Joint venture business opportunities with Indigenous communities Naming of streets or social agencies in local Indigenous languages Adpot best practices such as storefronts in Winnipeg’s downtown display messages of greeting in Indigenous languages Canada’s rapidly growing Indigenous population has the potential to fill the country’s looming skill and labour shortage, if the post-secondary education gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people can be lessened Indigenous banking Teachers, schools Transportation Lead practices include schools of social work and urban studies from the Manitoba’s two largest universities offer off-campus degree programs for Indigenous students, producing a stream of graduates and feeding a growing middle class. Urban reserve businesses Interpreters and translators Expanded post-secondary education Indigenous media Traditional foods
With changes growth within this important demographic, opens many opportunities and growth within the Greater Regina Area. For more detailed breakdown for the data presented, including a breakdown by age cohorts, please contact: Shaadie Musleh, Certified Intelligence Professional Manager, Strategic & Competitive Intelligence smusleh@economicdevelopmentregina.com
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About EDR
About Praxis
EDR is a not-for-profit economic development corporation, governed by a volunteer board of directors. EDR provides leadership to the community to support industry growth and diversification through retention and expansion of existing business and encouraging investment, development of industry and tourism.
Praxis works collaboratively with clients in the facilitation of growth and excellence. Leveraging an unmatched wealth of experience across multiple sectors, Praxis adds value to their clients through:
In collaboration with key stakeholders, we work to identify, develop and promote opportunities that advance economic prosperity and ensure the GRA offers a vibrant and diversified economy for investors, is a positive destination experience for visitors and offers a high quality of life for residents.
Strategy: Thought-leadership, rigorous planning, and pragmatic strategies.
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Economic Development Regina Inc. (EDR) is the economic development agency for the Greater Regina Area (GRA).
Praxis Consulting is Saskatchewan’s largest locally-based management consulting firm.
Research: Information gathering and data analytics.
Results: Cascading strategy and culture within the organization.