Impact Regina April 2016
Economic Indicators April 2016 Executive Summary
Impact Regina
The Regina economy continues to grow at a modest pace despite a retrenchment in resource prices: •
Year to Employment growth (+1.1%) is still positive and ahead of 2015 annual growth of 0.9%.
•
Year to date employment was up over the same period in 2015 in agriculture (100), resource extraction (350), manufacturing (800), wholesale and retail trade (1,250), finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,700), professional, scientific and technical services (900), business, building and other support services (500), information and cultural industries (800), accommodation and food services (1,350), health (450) and other services (450).
•
Employment declined over the same period in 2015 in utilities (-700), construction (-2,350), transportation and warehousing (-950) education services (-550), and public administration (-2,550).
•
The recovery in resource and manufacturing employment indicates that resource prices may have bottomed out.
•
The average year to date unemployment rate remains low at 4.6%, only slightly ahead of 2015 levels.
•
So far in 2016, housing starts have recovered (+6%). This is also reflected in residential building permits, up over 2015. However, industrial, commercial, and institutional permits are down over 2015, driving down total permits (-0.5%) and construction industry employment.
•
With low inflation, interest rates are not expected to increase through much of 2016.
•
2015 population was up 1.9 % over 2014 on the strength of international and intraprovincial migration. This can be expected to continue through 2016 with continued employment growth spurring continued in-migration. On average, between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015, Canada’s census metropolitan areas (CMAs) grew by 1.2 per cent.
•
The Conference Board of Canada forecasts Regina’s economy to post a 1.1 per cent real GDP gain in 2016, following a 0.3 per cent dip in 2015, the first drop since 1995.
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Economic Indicators April 2016 Month to Month
Employment Unemployment Rate (%)
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) Housing Starts Total (Units) Building Permits Total ($000s)
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M)
Feb 2015
Feb 2016
135,900
136,700
800
4.6
4.9
0.3
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
130.1
131.6
1.5
53
102
33,970
33,805
2014
2015
236,995
241,422
2015
2016f
14,075
14,235
% Chg
Chg
% Chg
Feb 2015
Feb 2016
0.6%
136,250
137,700
1,450
1.1%
6.5%
4.3
4.6
0.3
7.1%
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
1.2%
129.5
131.6
2.1
1.6%
49
92.5%
150
159
9
6.0%
-165
-0.5%
33,970
33,805
-165
-0.5%
4,427
1.9%
Negative Trend Positive Trend 160
1.1%
No Significant Change
Sources: Statistics Canada Cansim 2820128, 0270034, 326-0020, 0260003, 0510056, and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Autumn 2015. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted.
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Impact Regina
Population (persons) July 1
Chg
Year to Date
Special Report Regina Demographics & Population 2015 Regina Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) population was up 1.9 % over 2014 on the strength of international and intraprovincial migration. This far outstripped average Canadian CMA population growth. On average, between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015, Canadian CMAs grew by 1.2 per cent.
Sources of Population Growth
Impact Regina
Driving population growth since 2009/2010 has been international in-migration (immigration) and to lesser extents the natural increase (births less deaths) and migration from within the province (net intraprovincial migration). Migration from other provinces (net intraprovincial migration) has been either low or negative. 2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
Births
2770
2899
2912
3003
3082
3148
Deaths
1618
1692
1699
1713
1731
1748
Immigrants
2367
2721
4102
3472
3905
3594
Emigrants
133
174
246
134
179
181
Net interprovincial migration
229
-69
410
-76
-669
-974
Net intraprovincial migration
302
735
808
646
1139
1139
Source: Cansim Table 051-0057
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Historical Population by Age Group Since 2001 Regina CMA population by age group is as follows:
2001
0-19
20-44
45-64
65+
Total
0-19 as % of Total
20-44 as % of Total
45-64 as % of Total
65+ as % of Total
54,191
75,256
43,479
24,105
197,031
27.5%
38.2%
22.1%
12.2%
2002
53,433
74,433
44,708
24,385
196,959
27.1%
37.8%
22.7%
12.4%
2003
52,961
74,497
45,993
24,611
198,062
26.7%
37.6%
23.2%
12.4%
2004
52,291
74,532
47,521
24,798
199,142
26.3%
37.4%
23.9%
12.5%
2005
51,215
74,198
49,015
25,006
199,434
25.7%
37.2%
24.6%
12.5%
2006
50,319
74,018
50,394
25,411
200,142
25.1%
37.0%
25.2%
12.7%
2007
50,309
74,173
52,166
25,833
202,481
24.8%
36.6%
25.8%
12.8%
2008
50,666
74,454
53,890
26,230
205,240
24.7%
36.3%
26.3%
12.8%
2009
51,262
76,011
55,698
26,619
209,590
24.5%
36.3%
26.6%
12.7%
2010
51,534
77,634
57,272
27,042
213,482
24.1%
36.4%
26.8%
12.7%
2011
51,899
79,878
58,336
27,597
217,710
23.8%
36.7%
26.8%
12.7%
2012
53,205
84,358
58,948
28,450
224,961
23.7%
37.5%
26.2%
12.6%
2013
54,305
88,040
59,566
29,341
231,252
23.5%
38.1%
25.8%
12.7%
2014
55,684
90,830
60,257
30,224
236,995
23.5%
38.3%
25.4%
12.8%
2015
56,991
92,544
60,730
31,157
241,422
23.6%
38.3%
25.2%
12.9%
Notable among the 2001 to 2015 trends are: •
The increasing proportions of age 65+ (moving from 12.2% in 2001 to 12.9% in 2015 and 45-64 (22.1% in 2001 to 25.2% in 2015).
•
The proportion of 20-44 year olds has remained relatively constant around 38.2% in 2001 to 38.3% in 2015.
•
The proportion of population aged 0-19 was highest in 2001 at 27.5%, dropped to a low of 23.5% in 2013 and 2014, rebounded slightly to 23.6% in 2015, likely on the strength of surging international in-migration.
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Impact Regina
Source: Cansim Table 051-0056
Population by 5 year age group at 5 year intervals are illustrated graphically below:
Regina CMA Population by 5 year Age Group 25000 2001
20000
2006 2011
15000
2015
10000 5000 0
Impact Regina
Clear among the trends are the surging in population between 2011 and 2015 in the 0 to 4, 5 to 9, 25 to 29, 30 to 34, and 35 to 39 year old age groups, all likely the result of stronger international in-migration during this time period.
Population Forecast A customised population forecast model was built for the Regina CMA. The population model is a simple cohort survival model using birth and death rates and migration data from Statistics Canada. In its basic form, a cohortsurvival model estimates future population based on the previous period’s population plus natural increase (births less deaths) and net migration: Population[t+1] = Population[t] + Natural Increase + Net Migration This is calculated for men and women for each age-group. The time interval is determined by the age cohorts. The smallest time interval for which an estimate can be made is the length of time it takes all the members of an age cohort (e.g., age 10 - 14) to pass on to the next age grouping (e.g., the 15 - 19 year-old group). All of the cohorts must be the same dimension (e.g., 5-year increments, 7-year increments), since over the course of the analysis each group must pass from one cohort to the next. All estimates must use time-intervals which are multiples of the cohort size.
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Natural increase is the difference between the number of children born and the number of people who die during one time interval. The analysis, however, is being done in terms of age-cohorts for each sex. Children can only be born into the first cohort but people die in all of the cohorts (including the birth cohort). Further, the number of males has no direct effect on the number of children born. Children are born only to women of childbearing age based on historical births per female population by age group. Deaths by age group are also based on historical deaths per age group population. Migration, both in and out, includes international, inter-provincial, and intra-provincial. Based on provincial average birth and death rates, provincial average propensity to in and out migrate by age group, and the last 5 year average rates of international, inter-provincial, and intra-provincial migration, a population forecast was derived for the Regina CMA for 2016 to 2025. Regina CMA Population Forecast
0-19
20-44
45-64
65+
Total
0-19 as % of Total
20-44 as % of Total
45-64 as % of Total
65+ as % of Total
2016
59,041
94,600
61,117
32,224
246,982
23.9%
38.3%
24.7%
13.0%
2017
61,033
96,526
61,708
33,267
252,533
24.2%
38.2%
24.4%
13.2%
2018
62,937
98,277
62,642
34,219
258,076
24.4%
38.1%
24.3%
13.3%
2019
64,818
99,872
63,760
35,155
263,605
24.6%
37.9%
24.2%
13.3%
2020
66,634
101,510
64,928
36,055
269,127
24.8%
37.7%
24.1%
13.4%
2021
68,729
102,645
65,916
37,358
274,648
25.0%
37.4%
24.0%
13.6%
2022
70,710
103,811
66,878
38,727
280,127
25.2%
37.1%
23.9%
13.8%
2023
72,684
104,845
68,001
40,026
285,557
25.5%
36.7%
23.8%
14.0%
2024
74,592
105,833
69,166
41,346
290,936
25.6%
36.4%
23.8%
14.2%
2025
76,461
106,856
70,086
42,868
296,271
25.8%
36.1%
23.7%
14.5%
•
Continued population growth at the 2011 to 2015 five year average of 5,500 per year. This however, drops slightly to 5,300 per year near the end of the forecast period.
•
The 65+ population increases to 14.5% of total as the 2015 55 to 64 year old population moves into the 65+ age cohort.
•
By 2025, the 0-19 age group returns to the proportion experienced in 2005 on the strength of younger international in-migrants and their children.
Implications for Business Business implications are clear. Over the next 10 years, and beyond, the Regina CMA can expect a growing senior as well as an increasing younger (0-19) and ethnically diverse population. Changes in these 3 important demographics represent long term marketing opportunities.
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Impact Regina
Key among the trends above are:
About EDR Economic Development Regina Inc. (EDR) is the economic development agency for the City of Regina and region. EDR provides leadership to the community to support industry growth and diversification through retention and expansion of existing business and encouraging investment, development of industry and tourism with focus on the key-growth sectors of the economy in the Region. In collaboration with key stakeholders, we work to identify, develop and promote opportunities that advance economic prosperity for those who live, work, learn, visit and invest in the Regina region and ensure the Regina region offers a vibrant and diversified economy for investors, is a positive destination experience for visitors and offers a high quality of life for residents. www.economicdevelopmentregina.com
About Praxis Consulting Praxis consulting is Saskatchewan’s largest locally-based management consulting firm. Praxis works collaboratively with clients in the facilitation of growth and excellence, leveraging an unmatched wealth of experience across multiple sectors. Praxis strives to: •
Inform clients with market research and economic impact studies, providing relevant insights into various sectors and communities.
•
Strategize, developing custom solutions tailored to clients’ most unique and complex needs.
•
Execute strategic plans, portfolios and projects by facilitating internal project management, change management and communication capacity.
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