Impact Regina
Indigenous Employment Gap Special Edition: October 2018
Executive Summary The Regina economy continues to slow in the first eight to nine months of 2018. Only average year-to-date employment and industrial building permits have posted increases with all other monthly indicators in decline: housing starts and total building permits dropped sharply combined with increases in the number of unemployed and unemployment rates. •
Despite a year-over-year drop of 1,000 positions, total average year-to-date employment in the Greater Regina Area was up 0.2% or 333 positions in January to September 2018 over the same period in 2017. At the provincial level, year-to-date employment dropped by -911 or -0.2%.
•
Year-to-date employment in September 2018 was up over the same period in 2017 in Utilities (111), Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing (700), Business, Building and other support services (1,611), Educational Services (1,444), Other services (511), and Public Administration (167).
• Year-to-date employment in September 2018 was down in Agriculture (-511), Resource Extraction (-667), Manufacturing (-722), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-600), Transportation and Warehousing (-333), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (-1233), Health Care and Social Assistance (-1189), Information, Culture and Recreation (-500), and Accommodation and Food Services (-67). •
•
After a weak performance in 2017, construction employment continues to bounce back in 2018. Year-to-date September construction employment is up by 1,567 positions from the same period in 2017 on the strength of non-residential construction. The average year-to-date unemployment rate increased to 6% in September 2018, up from 5.3% in September 2017. With limited job growth, the numbers of unemployed advanced sharply. The average year-to-date number of unemployed is up from 7,900 in September 2017 to 8,900 in September 2018.
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•
August 2018 total year-to-date housing starts are down by -566 units or -39.9% as the market struggles with over supply and stricter borrowing rules. Year-to-date declines were widespread and encountered across all classes of dwelling units: singles (-241 units or -48.6%), semi-detached (-100 units or -60.2%), row (-48 units or -26.7%), and apartment and other types (-177 units or -30.6%).
•
August 2018 year-to-date building permits, a leading indicator of construction activity, are down -33% over the same period in 2017. The only sub sector that posted an increase was industrial (12.9%). During the same time period residential (-30.6%), commercial (-37.1%), and institutional and governmental (-53.9%) posted declines.
• The average year-to-date Housing Price Index Benchmark Price is down from $292,111 in September 2017 to $276,933 in September 2018. •
With the pace of GDP growth at the national level suggesting that the economy is operating at close to full capacity, the Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 1.5% in July, up from 1.25%. It was the bank’s fourth increase over the last 12 months and represents the highest rate since December 2008. In a September 5 announcement, rates were held constant but an October 24 rate hike is likely and more to follow in 2019 with additional GDP growth stemming from the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
•
2017 Regina Census Metropolitan Area population was up 2.4% over 2016 to 253,220 on the strength of international and intraprovincial migration. This can be expected to continue through 2018 with continued, although slowing, employment growth spurring further in-migration.
•
The Conference Board of Canada forecasts Regina’s economy to post a 2.2% real GDP gain in 2018, following a 1.5% increase in 2017
Economic Indicators October 2018 Dashboard
Month to Month
Chg
Sept 2017
Sept 2018
140,800
139,800
-1000
5.6
6.7
290,700
277,000
Aug 2017
Aug 2018
Consumer Price Index (2002=100)
135.6
138.5
2.9
Housing Starts Total (Units)
259
62
72,128
Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Housing Price Index Benchmark Value($)
Building Permits Total ($000s) Building Permits
Residential ($000s)
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s)
Population (persons) July 1
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M)
Year to Date
% Chg
Chg
% Chg
Sept 2017
Sept 2018
-0.7%
140,311
140,644
333
0.2%
1.1
19.6%
5.3
6.0
0.6
11.9%
-13,700
-4.7%
292,111
276,933
-15,178
-5.2%
Aug 2017
Aug 2018
2.1%
134.5
138.3
3.8
2.8%
-197
-76.1%
1,420
854
-566
-39.9%
42,417
-29,711
-41.2%
514,315
344,522
-169,793
-33.0%
31,693
12,808
-18,885
-59.6%
276,321
191,737
-84,584
-30.6%
40,435
29,609
-10,826
-26.8%
237,994
152,785
-85,209
-35.8%
2016
2017
247,192
253,220
6,028
2.4%
2017
2018f
14,174
14,483
309
2.2%
Sources: Statistics Canada Cansim 2820128, 0270034, 326-0020, 0260003, 0510056, MLSÂŽ HPI, and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Spring 2018. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted.
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Indigenous Employment Gap Executive Summary Population growth drives change in any regional economy. In December 2017, Economic Development Regina looked at growth trends for Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations groups. As a follow up from that research, the following analysis provides an in-depth look at the Indigenous Employment Gap as it relates to population growth, using three growth projections scenarios. Scenario 1- 8.8% to 10%, Scenario 2 - 8.8% to 10.4%, and finally in Scenario 3 - 20% growth projection. In any scenario, this is substantial growth and it will have a significant impact on business as new employment opportunities will need to be available to accommodate. With education lagging for this group, behind the rest of the GRA and province, the large need will be in training the work force. This group has the potential to fill those positions that will be left vacant as the older cohorts retire, leaving opportunity for growth and prosperity for the next generation. With increased workers, this will be new additions to the consumer base enhancing our economic ecosystem. The population of the Greater Regina Area is growing at an impressive rate, if the community can harness those employment opportunities it would mean a 3% increase to the Regina CMA by 2026.
Introduction According to a report released by Dr. Eric Howe, a University of Saskatchewan economics professor, the significant education gap between First Nations people and the general population is directly affecting the employment opportunities for Saskatchewan Indigenous people. The study “Employment of First Nations People: Saskatchewan Lags Behind” used 2006 Census data which found 58.6% of Saskatchewan’s First Nations adult population did not have a high school diploma, compared to 29.9% of the population at large. This in turn, keeps the Indigenous employment and participation rates below the provincial average. The Indigenous population is growing at a rapid pace in Canada, according to Statistics Canada. A growth of 42.5% to 1,673,785 occurred in the Indigenous population (including First Nations, Métis, or Inuit individuals) between 2006 and 2016. Statistics Canada forecasts that one in five people (20%) in Saskatchewan will be Indigenous by 2036, when the Indigenous population in Canada reaches the projected 2.5 million. This paper, using a combination of historical and forecast data, attempts to quantify the size of the Indigenous employment gap both in terms of jobs and contribution to gross domestic product.
Population and Labour Force Characteristics Forecast For the Indigenous population, in Scenario 1, provincial average birth and death rates were used. Indigenous net migration was estimated using the Regina CMA Indigenous population to total CMA population applied to CMA migration figures. In this case, the Indigenous population increases from 8.8% to 10% over the forecast period. However, there are a number of compelling studies indicating that aboriginal birth and mortality rates are significantly different from provincial averages. In scenario 2, Indigenous net migration was estimated as in scenario 1, however, Indigenous birth and death rates were estimated using data from Statistics Canada-2001 Census. Using Indigenous specific birth and fertility rates, Indigenous population advances from 8.8% to 10.4% as population gains from higher fertility rates are largely offset by higher mortality rates. In scenario 3, to meet the 20% indigenous to total population threshold in 2036, as forecast by Statistics Canada, net intraprovincial must be re-estimated. Back-casting net migration to solve for 20% yields net migration of roughly 3 times net migration in scenarios 1 and 2. One further assumption was applied in scenario 3: Indigenous mortality rates are the provincial average while Indigenous fertility rates remain unchanged. See following page for forecast results. www.economicdevelopmentregina.com
Table 1: Summary of Regina CMA Population Forecasts
Regina CMA Population Forecasts Regina CMA Indigenous Regina CMA Scenario 1 % Indigenous Scenario 1 Indigenous Regina CMA Scenario 2 % Indigenous Scenario 2 Indigenous Regina CMA Scenario 3 % Indigenous Scenario 3
2016
2021
2026
247,192
274,425
300,981
21,650
26,196
30,225
8.8%
9.5%
10.0%
21,650
26,742
31,250
8.8%
9.7%
10.4%
21,650
32,834
44,304
8.8%
12.0%
14.7%
Census of Canada key labour indicators for the Regina CMA and its Indigenous population were forecasted over a 10-year horizon. Key labour force indicators centred on: •
Labour force: Civilian non-institutional population 15 years of age and over who, during the survey reference period, were employed or unemployed
•
Employment: Employed persons are those who, during the reference period, did any work for pay or profit, or had a job and are absent from work
•
Unemployment: Unemployed persons are those who, during reference period, were available for work and were either on temporary layoff, had looked for work in the past four weeks or had a job to start within the next four weeks
•
Unemployment rate: Number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labour force
•
Participation Rate: Total labour force expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 years and over
•
Employment rate: Number of employed persons expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over
The 2021 and 2026 forecasts were estimated by applying the average 2006 to 2016 growth rates by indicator to 2016 data and trended to 2026. The population aged 15+ was taken from the base case population forecasts. The “not in the labour force” figure was derived as the population 15+ less the labour force. In all cases, the forecast unemployment and participation rates are derived (unemployed divided by total labour force and labour force divided by the population 15+, respectively, and total employment divided by the population 15 years and older). Table 2: Regina CMA Census Trend Forecast
Regina CMA Total population aged 15 years and over In the labour force
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
157,610
170,070
188,670
220,591
240,891
111,845
123,505
133,845
146,425
160,187
106,420
117,525
126,100
137,280
149,450
5,420
5,980
7,745
9,288
11,139
45,765
46,565
54,825
74,167
80,705
4.8
4.8
5.8
6.3
7.0
Derived Participation Rate
71.0
72.6
70.9
66.4
66.5
Derived Employment Rate
67.5
69.1
66.8
62.2
62.0
Employed Unemployed Not in the labour force Derived Unemployment Rate
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Table 3: Regina CMA Indigenous Census Trend Forecasts Scenario 1
Indigenous Regina CMA
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Total population aged 15 years and over
11,165
13,005
14,550
17,654
21,158
7,210
8,985
9,310
10,624
12,124
6,220
7,895
8,015
9,155
10,457
995
1,090
1,300
1,487
1,702
3,955
4,015
5,235
7,029
9,034
Derived Unemployment Rate
13.8
12.1
14.0
14.0
14.0
Derived Participation Rate
64.6
69.1
64.0
60.2
57.3
Derived Employment Rate
55.7
60.7
55.1
51.9
49.4
In the labour force Employed Unemployed Not in the labour force
Table 4: Regina CMA Indigenous Census Trend Forecasts Scenario 2
Indigenous Regina CMA
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Total population aged 15 years and over
11,165
13,005
14,550
18,157
22,084
7,210
8,985
9,310
10,624
12,124
6,220
7,895
8,015
9,155
10,457
995
1,090
1,300
1,487
1,702
In the labour force Employed Unemployed
3,955
4,015
5,235
7,533
9,959
Derived Unemployment Rate
Not in the labour force
13.8
12.1
14.0
14.0
14.0
Derived Participation Rate
64.6
69.1
64.0
58.5
54.9
Derived Employment Rate
55.7
60.7
55.1
50.4
47.4
Table 5: Regina CMA Indigenous Census Trend Forecasts Scenario 3
Indigenous Regina CMA
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Total population aged 15 years and over
11,165
13,005
14,550
22,905
31,758
7,210
8,985
9,310
10,624
12,124
6,220
7,895
8,015
9,155
10,457
In the labour force Employed Unemployed
995
1,090
1,300
1,487
1,702
3,955
4,015
5,235
12,280
19,634
Derived Unemployment Rate
13.8
12.1
14.0
14.0
14.0
Derived Participation Rate
64.6
69.1
64.0
46.4
38.2
Derived Employment Rate
55.7
60.7
55.1
40.0
32.9
Not in the labour force
In all cases above, employment growth does not keep pace with 15+ population growth resulting in a participation rate dropping from 64% to between 57.3% to 38.2% and an employment rate dropping from 55.1% to between 49.4% and 32.9%. It should be noted that scenario 3 represents an extreme case and a more likely scenario is outmigration acting to clear the labour market.
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Closing the Gap This section deals with estimating the incremental employment growth necessary to achieve parity in 2016 participation and employment rates between Regina CMA and its Indigenous population in 2021 and 2026. Incremental employment over the forecast in tables 3, 4, and 5 is added to employment in each scenario to arrive at an Indigenous participation rate of 70.9% and an employment rate of 66.8%. Table 6: Regina CMA Indigenous Census Trend Forecasts Hypothetical Employment Growth Scenario 1
Indigenous Regina CMA
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Total population aged 15 years and over
11,165
13,005
14,550
17,654
21,158
7,210
8,985
9,310
12,517
15,001
6,220
7,895
8,015
11,793
14,133
995
1,090
1,300
1,424
1,698
In the labour force Employed Unemployed
3,955
4,015
5,235
5,137
6,157
Derived Unemployment Rate
Not in the labour force
13.8
12.1
14.0
11.4
11.3
Derived Participation Rate
64.6
69.1
64.0
70.9
70.9
Derived Employment Rate
55.7
60.7
55.1
66.8
66.8
Table 7: Regina CMA Indigenous Census Trend Forecasts Hypothetical Employment Growth Scenario 2
Indigenous Regina CMA
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Total population aged 15 years and over
11,165
13,005
14,550
18,157
22,084
7,210
8,985
9,310
12,873
15,657
6,220
7,895
8,015
12,129
14,752
995
1,090
1,300
1,424
1,698
In the labour force Employed Unemployed
3,955
4,015
5,235
5,284
6,426
Derived Unemployment Rate
Not in the labour force
13.8
12.1
14.0
11.1
10.8
Derived Participation Rate
64.6
69.1
64.0
70.9
70.9
Derived Employment Rate
55.7
60.7
55.1
66.8
66.8
Table 8: Regina CMA Indigenous Census Trend Forecasts Hypothetical Employment Growth Scenario 3
Indigenous Regina CMA
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Total population aged 15 years and over
11,165
13,005
14,550
22,905
31,758
7,210
8,985
9,310
16,239
22,516
6,220
7,895
8,015
15,300
21,214
995
1,090
1,300
1,424
1,698
In the labour force Employed Unemployed
3,955
4,015
5,235
6,665
9,242
Derived Unemployment Rate
Not in the labour force
13.8
12.1
14.0
8.8
7.5
Derived Participation Rate
64.6
69.1
64.0
70.9
70.9
Derived Employment Rate
55.7
60.7
55.1
66.8
66.8
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Table 9 assigns a value to incremental employment equal to the mean employment income in 2015 among those 15+ who are employed. Using employment income (in 2015 dollars) as direct gross domestic product (GDP), this figure was also expressed as a percent of CMA GDP. Results show that achieving parity with the CMA as a whole, would add between $112.2 million or 0.7% of CMA GDP and $463.5 million or 3.1% of GDP. Table 9: Regina CMA Indigenous Census Trend Forecasts Value of New Employment
New Jobs, Value, % of GDP Scenario 1
2021
2026
New Jobs
2,638
3,676
Value ($M)
112.2
156.4
Percent of CMA GDP
0.7%
1.0%
Scenario 2
2021
2026
New Jobs
2,974
4,295
Value ($M)
126.5
182.7
Percent of CMA GDP
0.8%
1.2%
Scenario 3
2021
2026
New Jobs
6,145
10,757
Value ($M)
264.8
463.5
Percent of CMA GDP
1.8%
3.1%
Implications for Business Business implications are clear. Over the next 10 years, and beyond, the Regina CMA can expect a growing Indigenous population and will require employment opportunities to accommodate. However, with education lagging behind the rest of the province and CMA, largely driving this disparity, the obvious business opportunities revolve around training. The CMA’s growing Indigenous population has the potential to fill the region’s looming skill and labour shortage as baby boomers retire, if the education gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people can be lessened. Finally, with parity achieved, there could be as many as 11,000 (scenario 3) new consumers earning the CMA average employment income representing another business opportunity.
Methodology A customized population forecast model was built for the Regina CMA. The population model is a simple cohort survival model using birth and death rates, and migration data from Statistics Canada. In its basic form, a cohort-survival model estimates future population based on the previous period’s population plus natural increase (births less deaths) and net migration: Population[t+1] = Population[t] + Natural Increase + Net Migration Natural increase is the difference between the number of children born and the number of people who die during one-time interval. Migration, both in and out, includes international, inter-provincial, and intra-provincial. Based on provincial average birth and death rates, provincial average propensity to in and out migrate by age group, and the last 5-year average rates of international, inter-provincial, and intra-provincial migration, a non-Indigenous population forecast was derived for the Regina CMA for 2016 to 2026. www.economicdevelopmentregina.com
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Economic Development Regina Inc. (EDR) is the economic development agency for the Greater Regina Area (GRA).
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