McGrath Report Alastair Kivell

ALASTAIR KIVELL

M c GRATH HAWKESBURY

After spending over a decade working across the Sydney property sector it brings me great delight to be able to bring that experience to one of greater Sydney’s most exciting regions. I genuinely believe The Hawkesbury is one of Sydney’s most undervalued areas with everything that there is on offer. Being part of a team with over half a century of experience in real estate I am in the unique position to be able to assist with everything from the first investment unit, to the first family home right up to the dream lifestyle acreage. With personal experience ranging from helping first home buyers navigate the emotional journey of settling into their first property right through to negotiating eight figure development sites & subsequently selling the 100+ units off the plan in record time. I look forward to taking this experience and tailoring it to your specific real estate journey.

After spending the first half of my real estate career with McGrath the opportunity for me to join one of Australia’s most trusted real estate names in tandem with a move to The Hawkesbury region will allow me to bring a new energy into the local marketplace. The people I’ve met in the area along with the uniqueness of The Hawkesbury is something that makes me enthusiastic to help buyers call the Hawkesbury home.

With our McGrath Hawkesbury team covering the local region, I mostly specialise in the suburbs of Windsor, South Windsor & Bligh Park. Being truly excited by the diversity of the people and the range of homes that the area has to offer I look forward to helping you with your individual property needs.

Warm Regards, ALASTAIR KIVELL 0411 207 468 alastairkivell@mcgrath.com.au

- SOLD $1,540,000

-

$1,045,000

592 GEORGE STREET, SOUTH WINDSOR

SOLD

SPECIALTY SUBURBS: BLIGH PARK, SOUTH WINDSOR, WINDSOR

18 DORRINGTON CRESCENT, BLIGH PARK

20 KIMBERLEY LANE, WINDSOR DOWNS - SOLD $2,250,000

A MESSAGE FROM GREG VINCENT

Over the past few years property prices have soared to new historic levels throughout The Hawkesbury as a result of a number of factors combining together.

Record low interest rates made borrowing for a mortgage extremely affordable and then add to that the enormous demand from Sydneysiders looking to escape the city-life due to the long periods of confinement they’d endured during numerous Covid-19 lockdowns. As a result, many saw The Hawkesbury as a more affordable and

spacious ‘tree-change’ lifestyle which also provides the flexibility and convenience to work from home or commute to the city if need be… and I believe that our rural-feel along with our close proximity to the 3 major cities of Sydney CBD, Parramatta City and Penrith City will help to keep the demand strong for property in The Hawkesbury for years to come.

In the early stages when Covid-19 lockdowns changed all of our lives many Sydneysiders fled the city to protect their families. Since they could also

work from home many went in search of a safer, quieter, more spacious and more affordable address within a couple of hours of Sydney. They ventured up and down the coast for the beach lifestyle, and others headed for a ‘tree-change’ lifestyle. To find a more rural lifestyle many of the city escapees originally headed to places that were easily accessible via the freeways, namely The Southern Highlands, The Blue Mountains and out to The Central Tablelands if they wanted something more affordable.

As the demand increased, the availability of stock coming onto the market pushed prices up dramatically in these areas. One of the first to see the prices increase by over 20% within a matter of months was the Southern Highlands. As prices soared in those pockets, buyers started to look for alternative areas to escape to. This is when The Hawkesbury became a hive of activity because it was suddenly seen as an ideal lifestyle solution and has grown in popularity for Sydneysiders and has already initiated some gentrification within the district.

Throughout 2022 there was a lot of disruption in the market caused by the Federal Election as well as a series of continual increases to the cash rate by the Reserve Bank, it became very clear that after a couple of buoyant years of double-digit growth the property market had reached the peak of this current cycle.

Locally, the series of flood events has also impacted the market with the mass media

showcasing the worst of the flooding and the impacts that these events have had on residents throughout the lower lying areas of The Hawkesbury.

As a result of the unprecedented frequency of the flooding and the enormous amount of rain that we’ve had within the catchment, an unmeasurable amount of the out-of-area buyers that don’t truly understand the topography of the district have been deterred from moving into The Hawkesbury district. The true impact that these recent floods have had on influencing both buyer behaviour and market activity are unknown and it’s likely that we may never know the real outcome that these devastating events have had on our local community and property values.

For example; off the back of the floods, I was asked by the Valuer General’s department to assist them with assessing the fluctuation in the market as a result of the floods in The Hawkesbury because they were struggling to get a read on what adjustments they need to make to estimates when doing their VG valuations across the district (especially within the flood-affected areas).

Whilst the market has been correcting since reaching the peak in The Hawkesbury early in 2022, there are a number of factors which could help to generate a more ‘stabilised market’ in 2023.

Firstly, with the international borders being re-opened and large-scale immigration

commencing again for the first time in years, we should see an increase in overseas buyers entering the market this year and beyond as Australia earned the reputation as one of the safest places in the world during the Covid-19 global pandemic.

Another factor which I believe will play an important role in shoring-up The Hawkesbury property market will be the large volume of ex-Sydneysiders who fled from the city over the past few years who are starting to get called ‘back-to-the-workplace’ by their employers who are now wanting the bulk of their staff to come back into the office for at least 2-3 days per week (especially since the removal of the mandatory Covid isolation was lifted).

A lot of these families have fled so far away from the city that they now will have no choice but to make some very important financial and lifestyle decisions. 1. They will either have to switch to a fly-in-fly-out commute to their work in the city. 2. Change jobs/careers and look for work locally which will be in short supply and generally be at a much lower pay rate than they were earning from the city-based company. 3. Sell up and move back closer to the city.

If these families do decide to sell up from their Regional home, some may end up moving back into the hustle & bustle of the city, but, a lot of these families will also be looking at rural lifestyle property on the fringes of the city which is still within commuting distance and properties in The Hawkesbury could provide these families with a perfect ‘back-to-the-workplace’ solution without having to totally give up on their rural lifestyle choice.

Other factors that could have an impact on The Hawkesbury property market are the Government decisions being made around the raising of the Warragamba Dam wall, the elevated bridge crossing at North Richmond and indirectly the Western Sydney International Airport (expected to

open late 2026), especially once the 24 hour flight paths that will be open to international, domestic and air cargo services are finally confirmed.

These Government decisions have polarised the community, especially in regards to Warragamba Dam. As your local McGrath agent I believe it’s extremely important that I stay abreast of what impacts these Government decisions can have our community.

As such, back in 2019 (before any of the recent floods occurred) I sat in on several meetings regarding the Hawkesbury-Nepean Flood Risk Management strategy, including evacuation strategy, plans for raising flood awareness along with the EIS study for the raising of the wall.

During one of the meetings with Infrastructure NSW I raised several issues around the impacts of development areas on flooding & evacuation times plus concerns around how the peak hour congestion along Richmond Road and Windsor Road would impact people evacuating. Lastly, I asked whether raising the dam wall would help to reduce the exorbitant flood cover insurance that some companies are charging.

I was also invited to attend the Independent Review Panel session with State Government Representatives, Selected flood experts and Local Council representatives. It was an eye-opening session.

One of the things I learnt during the meeting presented by Infrastructure NSW is something that I’m not sure many people within The Hawkesbury are currently aware of.

As a result of the flood modelling that was conducted the NSW State Government iPart outlined constraints on development of flood affected land as well as those that could severely impact flood evacuation routes and as a result, the residential subdivision that was proposed for the

Nepean Lakes Scheme actually got back-zoned and the Proposed Marsden Park North Precinct Plan was changed to ensure there are no impacts from fill on flood land.

As part of staying in tune with what’s happening in the area, I find that it’s also very important to have more of a helicopter view of the market and keep an active eye on exactly where Hawkesbury buyers are coming from. For example: the latest report from Domain.com.au shows that 84% of buyers searching property in The Hawkesbury are ‘Out of Area Buyers’.

Which means that when you’re considering selling your Hawkesbury property, your agent must have a Proven Marketing Strategy designed to showcase your home to the widest possible audience of Out of Area Buyers to ensure that you maximise the sale price of your property. In fact, not having a Proven Marketing Strategy could cost you 10’s if not 100’s of thousands of dollars in lost sale value when selling your home.

I sincerely believe that The Hawkesbury is currently undervalued.

You see, when you compare the market trends for the Hawkesbury Region on realestate.com.au to the Southern Highlands – Greater Region and the fact that we are at least ½ an hour closer to the Sydney CBD than suburbs like Bowral, Berrima, etc it appears that The Hawkesbury properties and the benefits of our district aren’t being promoted effectively into the city market.

At the time of doing these comparisons there were 391 listings in the Hawkesbury Region compared to 365 in Southern Highlands – Greater Region and 45,659 Buy searches compared to 106,209 respectively, (that’s almost 2.5 times the online searches). On top of that, the difference between the Average Sale Prices (ASP) for these two regions was in excess of $300,000. With Southern Highlands – Greater Region at $1,315,000 ASP,

whereas in comparison the Hawkesbury Region had an ASP on realestate.com.au of $995,000.

When you also look at the number of property sale transactions taking place within the two regions there’s a very significant difference in volume amongst the higher price ranged properties.

Over a 12 month period Hawkesbury Region property sales on realestate.com.au were $1.5m - $3m = 236 sales, $3m - $5m = 34 sales, $5m+ = 10 sales, whereas, the Southern Highlands –Greater Region had $1.5m - $3m = 372 sales, $3m - $5m = 100 sales, $5m+ = 38 sales over the same period.

In fact, the Southern Highlands prices soared 30.8 over the past year according to Domain House Report, and whilst Sydney prices fell by 2.7% just in one quarter during that year, within that same quarter Southern Highlands prices rose by 4.4%. Which means that there’s still a very strong demand for lifestyle property within a couple of hours of Sydney.

The Hawkesbury needs to be marketed as an attractive alternative to the Southern Highlands and I sincerely believe that some of the properties within our district should be able to command a lot more money if they’re promoted the right way.

McGrath Hawkesbury have developed a tailor-made, strategic approach to the marketing of your home which ensures that you maximise the sale price of your property.

Your Home Is Worth More With McGrath

Yours Sincerely, GREG VINCENT

PARTNER – McGRATH HAWKESBURY 0410 526 901 gregvincent@mcgrath.com.au