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Greece Telecommunications Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI's Q411 update on the Greek telecommunications market is played out against the backdrop of the country receiving a new rescue package, agreed by European leaders on July 21. Additionally, there was an announcement for a range of measures aimed at shoring up the eurozone amid renewed concerns over debt sustainability. Considering that contagion spread to Spain and Italy, we were confident there was sufficient motivation for policymakers to devise a more comprehensive rescue plan. The outcome of the EU summit is a step in the right direction, but there are still substantial shortcomings. Crisis risks will be defused in the short term, boosting markets, but this is still a case of the EU kicking the can down the road. Operator data suggest Greece's mobile subscriber base contracted at a faster rate than in previous quarters in Q410, at 8.7%. Although there was a further contraction (4.9%) in Q111. This figure represents the slowest rate of decline since the end of 2009. In the 12 months to December 31 2010, the mobile market experienced a net loss of more than 5mn customers. This vast loss of customers, can be attributed to the deduction of inactive prepaid users, resulting in an estimated 15.67mn mobile users at the end of 2010, down from 20.76mn 12 months previously. In terms of the telecommunications market, there is set to be another drop in mobile phone subscribers (-11%) during 2011, which would result in a penetration rate of just under 130%, following 2010's estimated 24.5% contraction. Growth is not expected until 2012, with a 5.6% increase set to herald healthy levels of growth until the end of the forecast period in 2015. The growth in popularity of 3G phones will continue in the medium term with strong double-digit growth set to continue y-o-y to 2015. Whereas in 2011 3G will account for 26.7% of the entire Greek mobile market, this percentage will hit 42.9% by 2015. We expect Greece's fixed-line market to remain relatively buoyant in the medium term due to interest in unbundled line offerings from alternative providers. However, this market will shrink slowly to 2015. Greece's fixed-line subscriber market shrank by just 1.9% in 2010 and we forecast the y-o-y change in 2011 to be a 1.11% contraction. By 2015 we expect a total of 5.712mn fixed lines in service, representing a penetration of slightly more than 50%. The biggest industry development in 2011 so far has been the announcement in June that Greece's broadband network operators are weighing up the possibility of building a nationwide fibre-optic broadband network. OTE, Wind, Forthnet, Hellas Online, Cyta and On Telecoms have been discussing options for the development of Greece's under-developed fixed broadband market. The alternative operators proposed combining their efforts to construct a shared fibre-to-the-building (FTTB) network, accessible by any telecoms operator.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Greece Wireline SWOT . 6 Greece Mobile SWOT ... 7 Greece Political SWOT . 8 Greece Economic SWOT ....... 8 Greece Business Environment SWOT ... 9 Business Environment . 10 Little Change as Economic Woes Weigh Heavily ....... 10
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Western Europe Risk Reward Ratings, Q411 ...... 12 Greece...... 13 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 15 Mobile ...... 15 Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile, 2008-2015 ..... 15 ARPU ....... 17 Table: Telecoms Sector ' Mobile ARPU ' Historical Data & Forecasts (EUR) . 17 Fixed Line 19 Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line, 2008-2015 19 Internet .... 21 Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet, 2008-2015 .... 21 Market Data Analysis .... 23 Mobile ...... 23 Table: Greek Mobile Market, Q111 .... 24 Table: Greek Mobile Net Additions, Q111 .. 25 Customer Divisions ..... 26 ARPU .. 28 3G ....... 29 Mobile Contract Wins . 30 Table: Mobile Contract Wins ...... 30 Mobile Operator Data ..... 31 Table: Market Overview ..... 31 Table: Cosmote ... 31 Table: Vodafone.. 33 Table: WIND Hellas ... 33 Mobile Content 35 Regional Outlook 35 Table: Smart Meter Race Is On .. 38 Greece Outlook ... 38 HSDPA And HSUPA ... 40 Value-Added Services Timeline... 41 Table: Selected VAS Services ...... 41 Fixed Line 42 Table: Greek Fixed-Line Market, Q409-Q410 (mn) ... 43 Table: Greek Fixed-Line Market - Total Voice Minutes, Q409 And Q410 (mn) .. 44 Broadband ....... 46 Greece's Broadband Market, Q410 .... 47 VDSL .. 49 FTTH .. 50 WiMAX ....... 51 IPTV ... 53 Table: FORTHnet NOVA Subscribers, 2009 And 2010 ...... 53 Wireline Contract Wins....... 54 Table: Selected Wireline Contract Wins ..... 54 Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments . 56 Table: Greece Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ...... 56 Legislation and Market Liberalisation 57
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Competition Policy ..... 58 Interconnection ... 59 Regulatory Developments ... 60 Industry Developments ....... 63 Competitive Landscape 66 Key Players ...... 66 Table: Key Players: Greece Telecoms Sector ..... 66 Table: Selected Operator Financial Parameters 66 Company Monitor .. 67 IPTV's Rebound: Good News For Set-Top Box Makers' . 67 Company Profiles .. 73 Hellenic Telecommunications Organization (OTE) .... 73 Vodafone Greece 81 WIND Hellas....... 84 FORTHnet .. 89 Hellas Online (HOL) .. 93 Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ....... 96 Mobile ...... 96 Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview ... 97 Fixed Line 98 Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview ..... 99 Broadband ......100 Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview ..100 Table: Glossary Of Terms ..101 BMI Methodology 102 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .....102 Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts...102 Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 104 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ....104 Ratings System ...104 Indicators ...104 Table: Ratings Indicators ..105 Weighting ...106 Table: Weighting Of Indicators .106
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