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COVID-19 IMPACT ON ENTERTAINMENT BUSINESS
#WEEK 22 ∙ MAY 2020
COVID-19 IMPACT ON ENTERTAINMENT BUSINESS #WEEK 22 ∙ MAY 2020
GLOBAL REVENUE LOST (USD BILLIONS)
2023
-17.9
-24.4
-21.5
$
-49.9
Source: Ampere Analysis
MEDIA SERVICES PERFORMANCE
LEVEL OF IMPACT ON EACH INDUSTRY
Lost growth expressed as % of current value of sector over five year forecast period
-4% -5% -6% -11%
REVENUE IMPACT
=
TV CONTENT
1%
TRANSACTION VIDEO
0%
SERVICE SEGMENT
12%
SUBSCRIPTION OTT
NEUTRAL
WHAT TO EXPECT
6m
Demand for children, family and news content grows
6m
Reduction in live event content and sports
1y
Catalogue finds favour as viewing increases
1y
Adding content makes sense
1y
Uncertainty over long-term TV advertising budgets
2y
‘Cord-shaving’ increases
2y
Bundling and discounts to take hold
2y
Broadband services get faster
2y
Increased consumption at home/ increased uptake of OTT services
6m
SVOD subscriptions will grow
6m
AVOD services can capitalize on increased viewership
6m
Cinemas shutting down as people go into lockdown
1y
Distributors delay/move to digital for film releases
1y
Pent up demand for cinema may lead to strong re-opening
1y
PUBLIC TV
=
PAY TV FREE TV ONLINE ADVERTISING
NEUTRAL
TV ADVERTISING
PAY TV
NEGATIVE
PHYSICAL VIDEO
Source: Ampere Analysis
4
VERY POSITIVE
OTT VIDEO
Pay TV, which has suffered % from the loss of sports coverage this season, will also lose significant value in what was already a challenging market structurally.
VERY NEGATIVE
CINEMA
*Duration up to the time mentioned. This is an estimate based on whether the impact is purely driven by quarantines or lockdowns, or will continue longer due to post pandemic recession, or simply accelerating an ongoing trend.
Source: Omdia
SVOD GLOBAL SUSCRIPTIONS Millions
NORTH AMERICA
300 250
EUROPE
200 150
APAC
100
LATIN AMERICA
50 2019
Source: Rethink Research
EXPECTED DURATION*
In-home TV viewing increases
THEATRICAL
-20%
2018
COVID-19 will cost the global entertainment industry $160 billion dollars over next five years.
-46
-43
-16.5
-2.9
-11.1 -38.8
160BN
2024
-19.9
2022
-3.4
2021 -3.0
2020
Entertainment & Advertising
-20.9
Advertising
-3
Entertainment
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
12% The big winner will be streaming. Ampere’s latest forecasts suggest streaming will gain 12% of additional growth in revenue terms over the five-year forecast period.