THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2017
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Vancouver Real Estate and the Chinese New Year of the Fire Rooster T he Chinese New Year is upon us, with celebrations that started January 28 and end around February 11. The Rooster is one of the 12 Lunar New Year signs in the Chinese Zodiac, and each year also has one of five elements that rotate in two-year cycles. As last year was the Year of the Fire Monkey, this will be the Year of the Fire Rooster. One year ago, we published a story about Vancouver real estate during the Year of the Fire Monkey, with predictions for overseas buying patterns and possible government interventions. So how much did our experts get right – and what can we expect from the New Year of the Fire Rooster? The Year of the Fire Monkey Last year, those who take heed of such things observed that the Year of the Monkey denotes financial turmoil and unexpected events – especially in a “fire” year. Some speculated that this could translate into more local real estate sales, as volatility in China’s stock markets led to investors turning increasingly to Vancouver as a safe harbour. Others warned that it meant the
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market could be full of unpredictability – as indeed it was.
Foreign Buyer Tax This time last year, speculation was already rife that the BC government might bring in a foreign buyer tax to try to help with affordability. The Year of the Fire Monkey did indeed see the introduction of a 15 per cent Property Transfer Tax (PTT) surcharge for overseas buyers, but only after the market was already slowing through natural self-correction. Luxury Homes Tax Around the same time, industry insiders were also mulling the possibility of a PTT surcharge on all high-priced homes. This was another policy to come to fruition right at the beginning of the Year of the Fire Monkey, with February’s BC Budget announcing that the PTT on the portion of a home sale above $2 million would increase from two to three per cent. Vacant Homes Tax The third of the three new policies
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touted in last year’s Year of the Monkey predictions also became a reality in 2016, with Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson announcing in September the new policy to tax those who leave their home empty for more than six months of the year. More details were then released in November following a public consultation. 2017’s Year of the Fire Rooster So with the Year of the Monkey bringing much of the volatility and dramatic change that was predicted, what does the New Year of the Fire Rooster bring? The Rooster is associated with trustworthiness and hard work, and those doing business are advised this year to stick to well-proven paths to ensure success, rather than risky ventures. Sounds like it could be business as usual in terms of Chinese buyers investing in Vancouver real estate, then? Or perhaps not, according to Richmondbased fortune teller and astrologer Sherman Tai. “In the last 12 to 15 years, every year I was telling people that if they
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have money to invest, to invest it in the property market,” Tai told REW.ca’s sister publication Business in Vancouver. “In my last year’s prediction in the Year of the Fire Monkey, I asked them to stop.” Tai advises investors to continue being cautious, and thinks Vancouver real estate prices could fall up to 10 per cent this year. This is in line with widely reported industry predictions, but Tai says that it is because the stars say that Vancouver is currently a bad location for real estate. “Some stars are good for property, and some stars are bad for property,” Tai told BIV. “This year, the bad star is going into the house.” However, developers who believe in the influence of the Lunar New Year may have reason to be optimistic, as may our current provincial leaders in the upcoming election. Tai believes that the Year of the Fire Rooster will be great for the BC Liberals, as Christy Clark’s own Year of the Snake astrological sign is compatible with the Rooster – and the BC Liberals have historically been compatible with the development industry.
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