VANCOUVER EASTSIDE Jun 29, 2017 Real Estate Weekly

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THURSDAY, JUNE 29, 2017

VANCOUVER EASTSIDE

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R E A L E S TAT E W E E K LY

BC Home Sales Set to Breach 100,000 Mark – Again: BCREA B ritish Columbia home sales are on track to top 100,000 in 2017 for the third consecutive year, according to the British Columbia Real Estate Association’s (BCREA) 2017 Second Quarter Housing Forecast released June 19. Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales across the province predicted to total 101,000 units by the end of the year – a drop of 10% from 2016’s record 112,209 sales, but 19.2% higher than the 10-year average of 84,700 units. “The province is in its fourth year of above-trend economic growth,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA’s chief economist. “Strong employment growth, consumer confidence and an influx of interprovincial migrants are important drivers of the housing market this year.” The BCREA’s report added, “In addition, with the millennial generation now entering their household forming years, the condominium market in major urban

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centres is experiencing pressure on supply.” BCREA is predicting that BC’s average MLS® residential sale price over the full year will fall slightly, by 1.1%, to $683,500 in 2017, but then increase 5.2% to a record $719,100 in 2018. The association said, “The [2017] decline in the provincial average price is largely due to rising demand for more affordable condominiums and a larger proportion of home sales occurring outside the Metro Vancouver region.” The forecast for average prices varies greatly when broken down by individual board area. Greater Vancouver’s high-priced average homes are expected to see the biggest price-dampening this year, forecast to decline 3.6% compared with 2016’s record levels, before then recovering to new highs by increasing 4.2% next year. At the other end of the scale, prices in Victoria and Vancouver Island are forecast to rise by 12.1% and 9.6% respectively

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this year, and then grow further by 1.2% and 4% respectively next year.

Surge in May Home Sales The forecast follows the association’s recent release of May home sales and prices across the province. BCREA reported that the number of homes listed for sale across the province remains at a 20-year low – but that hasn’t stopped a month-over-month surge in sales. Some 12,402 homes exchanged hands across BC in May, which is nearly 26% higher than April’s 9,865 sales. The transaction total is just shy of 8% lower than the hot May of last year – which is itself a rapid recovery from the activity slowdown of previous months, as even April’s sales figures were nearly 24% below those a year ago. Sales might have been even higher were it not for extremely tight supply of available homes for sale across the province. “Market conditions have tightened

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considerably this spring as an upturn in consumer demand has not been accompanied by a rise in homes listed for sale,” said Muir. “The entire southern portion of the province is experiencing a shortage of housing supply, which makes continuing upward pressure on home prices inevitable, at least in the near term.” That upward pressure on prices was clearly seen in May’s figures. After several months of the average BC home price being lower than the same time last year, BC’s average MLS® residential sale price in May was $752,536, a 4.2% increase over May 2016. Total active listings were down 11.1% year over year to 28,404 units. The ratio of home sales to active listings was well over 20% in nine of the province’s 11 real estate boards, and over 50% in Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack and Victoria. The association says that anything above 20% for a sustained period is a seller’s market.

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