THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2016
VANCOUVER EASTSIDE
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R E A L E S TAT E W E E K LY
Vancouver Real Estate Searches from US Sources Triple after Trump Win
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eb traffic to Lower Mainland and Victoria home listings on REW.ca tripled on the day after the US election, as US residents started researching the possibility of moving to Canada. The mantra “If Trump wins, I’m moving to Canada” has been oft-cited throughout the campaign – and it looks like many thousands of people are seriously contemplating such a move. Visits to the REW.ca home listings portal rose by 226 per cent on Wednesday November 9, the day after Trump’s presidential victory, compared with the day of the election, and by 219 per cent compared with Wednesday November 2. Page views on the property listings from US computers leaped to 26,204 on November 9, versus 8,789 page views on Wednesday last week – a rise of 198 per cent. The total proportion of US visits to REW.ca rose
from an average of 3.17 per cent of all the site’s sessions, to 10.56 per cent on November 9. The majority of the searches were from Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, New York and Chicago – all in Democratic strongholds. From California, which accounted for 35 per cent of REW.ca’s US-based traffic, searches on the listings portal rose by 272 per cent the day after the election, Wednesday November 9, compared with November 2. Possible Effects on Vancouver Housing Market The election of Donald Trump as US president and the extended Republican grip on all levers of American political power will affect the real estate markets on both sides of the US-Canada border, analysts say. Here is what is expected: Lower Canadian lending rates: A surge in the US dollar – which rose within hours of the election – could stall a planned increase in US Fed lending rates and lead to lower mortgage rates in Canada. Some see the potential of negative interest rates in Canada if trade agreements with the US are threatened and the Canadian dollar weakens further against the US currency. However, the Big Banks seem to be taking matters into their own hands and raising rates, with TD Bank increasing its prime and RBC cutting the discount on its fixed-rate mortgages this month. Resource boost: President-elect Trump has threatened to tear up the Paris Climate Agreement, denying that global warming is a man-made threat to the planet. Trump has also pledged to gut the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. He favours
Visits to the REW.ca home listings portal rose by 219 per cent on Wednesday November 9, the day after Trump’s presidential victory, compared with Wednesday November 2.
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construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, a key project of TransCanada Corp. that would open Alberta oil exports to the US market. The price of WTI crude oil spiked to US$45.21 a barrel following the Trump victory, up from US$44.00 a day earlier. Big winners could be resource communities and companies in Alberta, BC and Saskatchewan. Higher Canadian immigration: A perception of tougher U.S. immigration regulations under a Trump regime could lead to a surge in Canadian immigration, already on track to welcome an average of 300,000 people annually. The Canadian Citizenship and Immigration web page crashed from excess traffic as the election results unfolded. Higher immigration could increase demand for housing. Cooling of China’s economy: Trump has promised trade restrictions against China, which could accelerate a current economic downturn in the world’s second-largest economy. Trump vowed to slap a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports on his first day in office if China doesn’t change its “unfair” trade practices. Many Chinese investors may be seeking a safer haven, and Canada, particularly Vancouver, will likely top the list. Despite this, however, a survey by Juwai.com, China’s largest real estate listings site, found that almost half of the Chinese buyers of international property said they think Trump’s presidency will be good for the US economy, and will make them more – not less – likely to invest in the States. Further, more than half of Chinese real estate agents surveyed who work with international buyers said they expect further investment in the States under Trump’s presidency.
October 29
Canadian Housing Market Gets Shaken Up and Patted Down: Expert View
November 7
CMHC Passes Own “Stress Test,” Could Withstand Harsh Economic Conditions