REAL ESTATE WEEKLY
HOMES
L ADNER / TSAW WASSEN
LISTINGS • NEW HOMES • HOME SERVICES
Sasi Mache’,
AMP
Mortgage Planner
604-818-5363 www.smache.com
Independent Access to over 40 different Lenders so you get the Mortgage that fits
THU JANUARY 9, 2020
Real estate outlook 2020: a forecast summary W
hat are the various real estate industry organizations and brokerages predicting for the region’s residential sales and prices in the coming year? We compiled this summary of some of the key 2020 forecasts, and took our best stab at a general consensus.
Sales activity Prone to bullishness about the B.C. housing market by nature, the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA) predicts that MLS residential sales across the province will increase 10.9 per cent to 85,500 units in 2020, which would take the annual total to just below the 10-year annual average of 85,800 units. However, BCREA’s predicted sales increase is for all of B.C. and flattens out the widely varying predictions across different regions. Most of the recovery in activity is forecast to be driven by rising sales in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, where the markets were hit hardest by the
recent slowdown. Greater Vancouver residential transactions are predicted to increase by 18.2 per cent in 2020. Brokerage Royal LePage agrees that recent demand, particularly in the Greater Vancouver market, will be sustained in 2020. “Sales have picked up significantly this fall and there is momentum in our market. Buyers who took a ‘wait and see’ approach over the past 18 months are returning to the market looking to buy, confident that price drops have levelled off and may start to escalate,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker of Royal LePage Sterling Realty. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) makes the vote for considerably higher Greater Vancouver sales in 2020 unanimous. The federal housing agency predicts that Vancouver CMA will likely recover the home sales lost in 2019 and return, in 2020, to the “normalized” levels of activity seen in 2018. General consensus:The forecast is pretty much unwavering among the
various pundits. B.C.’s housing market activity will strengthen on the whole, but most of the recovery will be in the Lower Mainland.
Home price changes BCREA is predicting a whole-province average price rise, at 3.6 per cent in 2020. However, it seems the larger increase in predicted sales in the Lower Mainland doesn’t translate to larger increases in predicted home prices. According to BCREA, Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are both expected to see an average MLS sale price rise of just one per cent in 2020. RoyalLePage mirrored this forecast for Greater Vancouver. It said in its most recent outlook: “In Greater Vancouver, house price appreciation is expected to stabilize in 2020 after declining in 2019. The aggregate price of a home in the region is forecast to rise 1.5 per cent to $1,125,200.” RoyalLePage’s Ryalls added, “The concern for potential buyers may be
that prices will escalate quickly but they should also be concerned that they won’t get the same selection of listings or time to look around. It varies between neighbourhoods, but areas such as East Vancouver are a seller’s market.” Re/Max’s area-focused forecast was something of an outlier, pegging Vancouver East and Vancouver West as seeing considerably higher price growth next year, at eight per cent and four per cent respectively. However, this forecast does not account for the rest of Metro Vancouver. CMHC foresees that any Metro Vancouver price growth will remain muted, but its forecast range predicts that a slight rise is more likely than a slight decline. General consensus: B.C.’s average home prices will likely rise a few per cent next year, but Greater Vancouver price trends will lag somewhat, with only modest increases.
CONTACT US TODAY TO BOOK YOUR NEXT AD lfry@glaciermedia.ca • 604-379-4576