October 21, 2015
Internet/Financial Technology
Topic of Discussion: Blockchain Technology
The Blockchain Report: Welcome to the Internet of Value Blockchain technology is a radical innovation that enables direct value exchange over the internet. This is a powerful departure from the status quo, where digital value exchange has always necessitated a middleman and, consequently, incurred their inherent friction in the form of cost, delays, and risk. In this respect, blockchain is a disintermediating technology that is removing friction in the exchange of value over the internet. In this report we examine the essence of blockchain technology, identify eleven use cases and applications, highlight drivers and hurdles for mainstream adoption, and profile some of the leading companies in the space.
Contributing Analysts Spencer Bogart, CFA (415) 262-4877 sbogart@needhamco.com Kerry Rice (415) 262-4890 krice@needhamco.com
As a result of several structural advantages such as durability, transparency, and immutability we believe that blockchain technology will have a significant impact on many industries including Payments, Exchanges, Cybersecurity, IoT, and Smart Contracts. Emerging trends in the industry such as early enterprise adoption, usage trends, R&D expenditure, and venture capital activity, suggest that blockchain technology is approaching an inflection point toward greater mainstream and enterprise adoption.
A major factor for realizing the full potential of blockchain technology—and a critical portion of our thesis and expectations—is the permissionless innovation that is enabled by public blockchains. In the same way the openness of the internet and the freedom to build upon it enabled a rich ecosystem of innovative information applications and services, so too do we expect an open value exchange network to develop into a rich ecosystem with previously impossible and hard-to-imagine money/ value applications and services. We believe this is happening and the innovative use cases described throughout this report are early evidence of the potential ahead.
We see blockchain technology as a disruptive innovation whose impact will ultimately be profound. Similar to how the proliferation of internet accessibility created the opportunity for new business models for information exchange in the likes of Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn, so too will the rise of blockchain technology present new business opportunities of similar scale for value exchange. Venture capital invested in blockchain-related companies has accelerated considerably over the past three years and is on track to top $600 million in 2015. We expect venture capital flows to accelerate in 2016 and lead to further development of the foundational and infrastructure services necessary to create a fertile “plug and play” ecosystem for entrepreneurs and innovation that will ultimately escalate enterprise adoption from a trickle in 2016 to a multi-year boom starting in 2017. Companies Mentioned in Report: ■ ■
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO: $28.50, PT: NA) Facebook, Inc. (FB: $97.00, PT: $115.00) LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD: $197.60, PT: $260.00)
S&P 500
10/21/15
Price
2,300.00 2,200.00 2,100.00 2,000.00 1,900.00
Relevant disclosures begin on page 56 of this report.
1,700.00
Oct-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
1,800.00
Jan-15
■
■
Feb-15
■
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN: $560.88, PT: NA) eBay Inc. (EBAY: $24.42, PT: NA) Alphabet Inc. (GOOG: $650.28, PT: $740.00) Seagate Technology (STX: $38.52, PT: $50.00)
Dec-14
■
Nov-14
■
Sector Chart