How the U.S. Can Deter Chinese Aggression into the Next Decade by B A R R Y PAV E L & C H R I S T I A N T R O T T I Last October, the Financial Times reported wars, there could be perilous geopolitical implications. that the Chinese military tested a nuclear-capable To better compete with Chinese military modernization, hypersonic glide vehicle in August 2021. While this the United States must structurally adapt its approach missile may have missed its target by up to two-dozen to investing in the right capabilities, acquiring defensemiles, it successfully traversed low-Earth orbit before relevant technologies, and leveraging diplomacy in descending through the atmosphere, confirming fears creative ways. that the United States has Hypersonic weapons fallen behind China in must be understood the hypersonic arms within this broader race and potentially in technological context. other facets of military These new missiles modernization. In are certainly groundparticular, Beijing’s breaking, since they willingness to test its combine the speed of weapons even when the intercontinental ballistic probability of success missiles (ICBMs) with is lower, compared to the maneuverability and Washington’s more low flight profile of cruise risk-averse approach to missiles to significantly testing weapons only complicate (and when it is much more potentially circumvent) confident in success, is early warning systems A 2019 military parade in Beijing featured DF-17 Dongyielding results. General and current missile feng medium-range ballistic missiles equipped with a Mark Milley, chairman defense capabilities. By DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle. of the U.S. Joint Chiefs themselves, however, of Staff, even declared they do not meaningfully this test “very close” affect the nuclear balance to a Sputnik moment of power between China There is an ongoing revolution in in the broader strategic and the United States. military affairs, and if China is the and technological If deployed en masse, competition with China. traditional Chinese first to redefine the way that great While this (and Russian) ICBMs powers fight and deter wars, there development is have long been capable could be perilous geopolitical concerning, Chinese of overwhelming U.S. advances in hypersonic missile defenses, and implications. weapons — as well as this capability is only other emerging military growing as China and dual-use technologies — do not constitute a Sputnik continues to expand the size of its nuclear arsenal moment by themselves. Rather, the combination of through the construction of missile silo fields. The threat these technologies, and the speed with which China is of mutual assured destruction is still the predominant harnessing them to modernize its forces and capabilities nuclear deterrence paradigm and is not disrupted by in new and unanticipated ways, pose the greatest hypersonic weapons alone. threat to U.S. and allied security. There is an ongoing However, Chinese hypersonic weapons become revolution in military affairs, and if China is the first far more concerning if they are integrated with other to redefine the way that great powers fight and deter emerging capabilities. Like the United States and Russia, 18
RIPON FORUM February 2022
