Preventing the Next Ukraine by MICHAEL A. HUNZEKER A war in Ukraine seems more likely with each passing problem.” Even if Xi prefers to use diplomatic and economic day. Washington should not breathe a sigh of relief. Far from pressure to bring Taipei under Beijing’s control, he may worry a one-off episode, the storm brewing over Eastern Europe that his window of opportunity is closing. As a result, Xi could serves as yet another stark reminder that our rivals believe feel compelled to use force sooner rather than later. they can act like it is the 19th century all over again. For example, far from gravitating toward China, evolving If anything, the unfolding crisis in Ukraine should serve Taiwanese identity and ham-fisted Chinese bellicosity are as wake-up call that we are running out of time to deter pushing the island further away. Xi also faces a number aggression against an even of looming domestic more vulnerable partner: challenges. Meanwhile, Taiwan. Washington should despite pouring billions act with urgency. into military modernization, The threat is real. The the prospects for a swift Chinese Communist Party Chinese victory could has never equivocated actually grow dimmer about the fact that it sees with time. Support for the Taiwan as a sacred issue island is solidifying among over which it seeks to American voters and elites assert political control. Nor alike. The U.S. Department should we downplay the of Defense considers China risk of war by convincing its pacing threat. Successive ourselves that Beijing presidential administrations prefers to win without have sought to improve fighting. No rational actor Taiwan’s defenses by Taiwanese sailors salute the island’s flag on the deck of prefers otherwise. In any authorizing billions in arms the Panshih supply ship after taking part in annual drills, case, this stereotype about sales ($32 billion since 2009 at the Tsoying naval base in Kaohsiung iin 2018. Chinese strategic culture is to be exact). And the Biden dangerously misguided. Administration is cajoling China has a long and regional allies to take a distinguished history of clearer stance on the need The unfolding crisis in Ukraine using violence as a foreign for cross-Strait stability. should serve as wake-up call that policy tool. Moreover, Fearing Taiwan’s Chinese rhetoric, laws, and inexorable drift could we are running out of time to deter actions make clear that therefore lead Xi to “roll aggression against an even more when it comes to Taiwan, the dice” on war. Such a force is very much still on gamble becomes especially vulnerable partner: Taiwan. the table. Most ominous of tempting to the degree that all, the decision to go to war Xi thinks he can seize the increasingly rests solely in the hands of a single “paramount island before the United States can intervene. leader” who has proven that he is perfectly willing to use brute Deterring an attack on Taiwan therefore requires force at home and abroad. convincing Xi that a rapid victory is unlikely, which means Worse yet, time is not on our side. The current and former preparing Taiwan to hold out for as long as possible. officials in the region with whom I have spoken agree that Herein lies the problem. Taiwan’s military is not ready the next six years are especially perilous. Their reasoning is to absorb a first strike and defend the island long enough for straightforward: Xi Jinping is pursuing an unprecedented third outside forces to intercede in decisive numbers. Ironically, term, justified in large part by a promise to solve the “Taiwan Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense is one of the biggest RIPON FORUM February 2022
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