Politics & Perspective
The Fight Against COVID-19 and the Lessons of 1918 A Conversation with John Barry
It’s not often that a book becomes a #1 New York Times bestseller 15 years after being published, but that’s what happened earlier this spring to a book written by historian John Barry that was first published in 2005. Called “The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History,” it is an account of the deadly virus that swept across America and the world in the winter of 1918, killing more people in 24 weeks than AIDS killed in 24 years, and more in a year than the Black Death killed in a century. In total, as many as 100 million people died around the globe, succumbing to a horrifying disease that not only often left its victims bleeding from their eyes, ears, noses, and mouths, but also saw them turn a ghastly shade of dark blue because of the oxygen that was being stolen from their blood. The outbreak occurred in the waning months of World War I, and the story Barry tells is of a country focused on one conflict and consumed by another. Caught off guard and unprepared for the pandemic, America’s leaders at first deny its existence and then downplay its severity, lest the Great Influenza get in the way of the effort to win the Great War. President Woodrow Wilson never mentions the disease in any of his public statements, and cities and towns across the country are left to fend for themselves. When Barry’s book was released, then-President George W. Bush was so affected by it that he launched an unprecedented three-year effort to prepare the country for the next outbreak. “A pandemic is a lot like a forest fire,” he said at the time. “If caught early it might be extinguished with limited damage. If allowed to smolder, undetected, it can grow to an inferno that can spread quickly beyond our ability to control it.” As the United States continues its battle against COVID-19 and tries to contain the same type of viral inferno that President Bush talked about, the Forum spoke with John Barry about the great influenza pandemic that paralyzed our country 102 years ago and the lessons it holds for today.
Forum: As we head into the fall, would you say worse? the U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic of Barry: The virus is actually relatively easy 2020 has been better or worse than the U.S. response to predict. What you can’t really predict is human to the great influenza pandemic of 1918? behavior. We’ve seen an ebb and flow here. Things Barry: I’d say it’s been much worse. The reason will get bad in an area of the country, and people will is that in 1918, they really were take it very seriously, and it will caught by surprise. Obviously, get a lot better. Then they may science was not then where it is relax or some other area doesn’t The virus is now, and we were in the middle pay attention, and it gets bad actually relatively easy of a war. there. to predict. What you can’t Today, we had ample My expectation would be — warning, many, many more tools depending on when the weather really predict is human to use, a lot of planning, and a gets cold and people start going behavior. lot of preparation — all of which inside more — that things will get were pretty much thrown out the worse. If people behave properly, window. So I would say it’s much worse this time around. it is possible that the case counts will get lower. That would be wonderful. I don’t think that will happen, Forum: Based on America’s response so far, but it is certainly a possibility. what do you expect this fall to look like with regard The amazing thing about the whole process is that to the spread of COVID-19? Will things get better the world has demonstrated the ability to control this for the country or do you expect things will get outbreak through public health measures to an extent 4
RIPON FORUM October 2020
