Ripon Forum Spring 2002

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ORUM VOLUME 37 NUMBER II

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THE

RIpON F ORUM Contents

VOLUM E 37 · NUMBER

n • SPRING

2002

Publilher

A Better Campaign Refonn ..... ....... ....... ........................ ........... .................. ........ .. .. 4

The Ripon Society

US. R ep resentative Tom Petri

I'ttsident

A Ripon lnterview wirh Rep. Vernon Ehlers: Creating a Better C urriculum ............. 5

Hon. Bill

F~n:tC1

Executive

Lori

Di~cf(lr

Scot Christenson

Credit Where Cred.it Is Due ................ ... .... ............. , ................. .. ....... ... ...... ........... 9 Michael Z ak

H ~u

Comn.mications Dftctor, Editor

The Farm Bill ............... ... ... ................................. .. .. .......................... ..... .... ..... .... 10

u.s. R epresentatives J ohn A. Boehner and George R . Nethercutt. J r.

Scot Christenson

Peace or Nuclear War in Kashmir ... .... ...... , ............. ....... ....... .............................. .. 13 Design/An

D~i(ln

U.S. R epresentat ive J oe Pitts

Chrinina F. Valis

Two Bright Ideas to Reduce Drug Prices .................. ........ ........... .................... .. .... 14 ProduCfMIn CCI

A lexander Tabarrok

www.cci-scrvica.com

2002 Rough Rider Awards Dinner ..... .. ... ............ , ............ ..... ..... .. ..................... .... 16 Scot Christenson

IRS Reform .......................... .................... .... ..... ............ .............. .... ......... ............ 18 U.S. R epresentative R ob Portman ., 2002 byThe Ripon Society All Rights Rescrvro One Year Subscripdon: $25.00 individuals $10.00 INdents

2002 Midternl Election .................................. ... .............. " ............... ........ .. ... ....... . 19 Scot Christenson

The State of the Nation Project ............ " ........ .... .. ... ....... ............................ .... .. .. ... 22 Geopolitical Realignment ........................ .... ... .. ... .. ............................ ... ..... .. ......... 23

Pt:riodicals postage p;>id at Washington. D.C. and additional mailing offlCC$.

Postmaster, scnd

Thomas H enriksen

Agriculrural Bioterrorism ........ ... ... .... .......... , .................... ... ... ..................... ....... .. 24 H mry S. Parker

address clunges to: The Ripon Forum

A Ripon Interview with Rep. Mark Kirk: From Carriers to Congress ..... ................ 27

501 Capitol Court, NE

Seal Christenson

Sui te )00 Washington, D.C 20002

The Ripon }r,rum (ISN 0035-5526) is published quarterly by The Ripon Society.

The Ripon Society is a rese:ltCh and policyorganintion. [t i, ht:adquartt:~d in \Vashington. D.C .. with National Associate members throughout the United States. Ripon is supported by chapter dues. individual con tributions. and revenues from its publications.

Commenti. opinion edi torials and letters (0 the maguine should be ~ddrel$cd to: The Ripon Forum, 501 Capitol Court. N E Suite

300, Washi ngton. D.C. 20002 or may be (r:,"smilled electronically to: lemrs@riponsoc.org Ripon Forum • Spring 2002

3

ABetter Campaign Reform

by U.S. IIcp" cscnlalivc Tom J'clo'i (II-WI)

R rprtUnlaliw

Tom Prlr;

resident Bush signed [he McCainFeingold campaign finance refann bill into law earlier this year, and you may have thought that you'd heard the last of the subject for a while. Not so.

That bill will help to restrain large corporate ~so ft money" donations to political org.mizations which, many believe, have improperly influenced government policies and corrupted the political process. It also interferes - perhaps unconstirutionallywith free speech during Clmpaign seasons which, of course, are the times when free speech cou nts the most. Accordi ngly, I supported McCain-Feingold with considerable ambivalence, and look forward to the resolution of various court challenges.

I have long thought that there is a better approach to campaign fin ance reform, and I recently introduced the latest version of my key proposal. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D - PA ) signed on as an o riginal cosponsor, so this bill already q uali fies as "bipar ti san~.

Most, I think, would agree that the ideal way to finance political campaigns is through a broad base of donors, but the econom ic realities of mode rn-day campaigning virtually oblige many candidates and political parties w focu s most of their efforts toward collecting funds from a few large donors. T his reality alienates many Americans from our political system and opens politicians up to the now-familiar charge that we arc "bough t and paid for" by special interests.

While the new McCain- Feingold reform focuses o n li miting the impact of large contributions, o ther reforms have been designed to make it easier for small donors to playa role. For example, from 1972 to 1986, the fede ral government offered a tax credit fo r small political contributions. Th is offered an incentive for average Americans to contribute to campaigns in small amoun ts while simultaneously encouraging politicians to seek financial support from a larger, more div~rse pool of potential supporters.

The word ~poo l ~ is particularly apt here, since the key advan tage of num~ r­ ous small donors is thai their varied interests and concerns dilute the influenc~ of large con tributors.

Ten geographically and politically diverse states currently offer thei r own tax credits or deductions for political contributio ns. T hese state- level credits differ in many respects, but all share the same goal of encouraging average Americans to provide a counterweight agai nst ~fat cats" and special interests.

The federa l tax credi t, however, was eliminated by the 1986 tax overhaul. M y bill, H .R. 4980, the Citizen InvolvemenT in Campaigns (CIVIC) Act, would bring it back in an updated form.

Under my proposal, taxpayers could choose between a 100 p~ rc~ nt tax credit for political contributions to federal candidates or panies (limited to S200 pe r year), or a 100 percent tax deduction (limited to S600 per year). Both li mits would be doubled for joint returns. As long as political parties and candidates promo te the use of these cr~ dit s and deductions, the prog ram can have a real impact.

Of course, manyrefonners say that th~ best way to pay for campaigns would be through public fina.ncing rather than private contributions of any size. An advan tage of my plan, however, is that it encourages taxpayers to contribute to the campaigns they actually support - without also being forced to fund, through the treasury, candidates they abhor.

m

Tom i+/ri repmrnlJ H'Uwn..rills 6th lJiJlrill. N r is Viu Chair oflhe Ilouse Edula/;olf & the II&liforrr, IIlfd Ille 7ransponatirlll & Ilffasllllc/Ilre COlf/III;llrrJ.

Ripon Forum • Spring 2002

Creating a Better Curriculum A R ip on I nterview with

us. R ep resentative Vernon Ehlers (R-MI)

Ill' Scot Christenson, rOl"Um Editor·

R F: W idl your P h. D. in nuclear physics from Be rkeley, you are Ih e on ly research phys icist in C ongress. H ow has t his uni que perspect ive mo lded your legislative goals a nd what effe ct has il had o n your view of C ongress?

Rtpwrntotiw VTrmm EhlFrJ

ongressman Vernon ). Ehlers of G rand Rapids,Michigan, has long been an active advocate of improving science, mathematics, engineering, and technologycducation al me K- 12levcl. Ourlined in Ihe 1998 repon "Unlocking Our F utu re~, the first significant study on federal suppon of science in fifty years, Rep. Ehlers stressed that the U.S. educational system needs to better prepare students for the technology-based world of IOmorrow. In 2000, he introduced the National Science Education Acts with the intentions of ensuring that all students arc provided with the knowledge to thrive in a global high tech society well into the future. H e sat down with the Ripon Forum to further discuss his views on the current state of education.

Ripon Fon..om • Spring 2002

R~p. EhI~rs: First of all , I'm the first physicist ever elected to the U.S. Congress and the first at this level of government since Ben Franklin. T hc resuh is similar to my experiences in Ihe coun t)' comm ission, state house and state senate leve l: T here are so many techn ical and scientific issues to be dealt with today in the legi slative arena, and most members have little 10 no knowledge about them. So ;\5 a result, in every office I've held, a lot of stuff just got dumped on me, whethe r I was on the com mittee deali ng with it or not. It's kind of ironic: most of my contributions to Congress have been largely anonymous. They have been mostly counse ling and advising other people and other committees about certain issues.

Things come to me which are totally irrelevant in terms of achieving anything related to the legislature. For cxample, l was responsi ble for computcrizing the H ou se. When I got he re, it was easier fo r me to se nd an email from my office to M oscow than to send it from my office to an office 20 feet down the hall.

It then became my job to nenvork 11,000 computers. When I started I said: 'This is the kind of job where no one wili ever notice you did il or thank you for it ifit works, but you'll get all the criticism and blame if it doesn't.'

RF.·Thc Democra ts have long enjoyed the public's confi de nce on issues pcrt:lin ing to educa tio n. Polls indica ted t hat Republican s had gained ground , only to lose it in recent mo nths.

To what do you att ribute thi s reversal and what can Republi ca ns do to become known as t he educatio n party?

5

R tp. E hlers; Well, the President has it

right. People have been trying to re· form education fo r twenty years, and the President did it in 11 months; and that's very good. Of cou rse, he had a lot of help from us, particularly in the H ouse. I put a lot of time into that tryi ng to get the math/science parts of it pe rfect. Simply, the President addressed the basic issue of how can we improve education, and that's what brought all of us up to the present destination. Since the n, we have fallen back intO arguing about ideo· logical issues that many Republicans R(p_ Ehlen talk with Ripen F()rum Edil()r Se()! Christms()n hold true, like vouchers and local control. According to the evidence, the majority of the public doesn't agree with this, and so we begin to lose support. T here are other ways to achieve your chief agenda. We learned that in Michigan during the last election. ] tOld them if we put vouchers on the ballot. we'd go down 2-1, but they decided that they could win it. So they went out and spell! gobs of money. worked ve ry hard, and wen t down 21. You've got to face the facts and focus on achievable reforms.

RF; On the subject of vouchers: parents could use these to send their children to religio us schools, which some argue is a violation of the First Amendment. Is there any way around this?

R ep . Ehlers; I think that most people say that this is a violation of separation ofchurch and state. Which incidentally is not in the First Amendment, which is a distinction I would like to make. I don't thin k there is anything whatsoever in the First Amendment of the United States Constitution or in most state constitutions which would prohibit state funds to send kids to private schools or even religious schools. America is the only nation in the world that doesn't allow this. Almost every European nation and Canada has this provision that you can pick the school. If you want to go to a CathoLic school, fi ne. The money goes to the school that you choose. The idea that somewhere in the Constitution there is 'separation ofchurch and state' is a terribly faulty concept. Separation ofchurch and state is not in the Constitution. Some people would Like to think so, and would like to put a wall in between church and state. I would maintain in fact that the present practice is contrary to the First Amendment, because it states that first of all, that the government may not impose any rules, but secondly that it may not restrict the exercise of religion. I say that prohibiting use of fun ds from the government to go to private schools means that lower income parents cannot send thei r kids to religious schools. That means we are imposing a restriction on the exercise of their faith. So, I would turn 6

the argument arou nd and ask those who are opposed to this why they think we should violate the First Amendment.

On June 27. 2002. the Supreme (ourt ruled that vouchers do not violate the First Amendment as long as parents had a choice among a range of secular and religious schools.

RF; Studies reveal that American students are far beh ind other developed natio ns in the areas of science and math. \¥hat are these COUll tries doing right and what can we borrow from their educational syStems to incorporate into our schools?

Rep. Ehlers: First of all, if you look at our TIMM S (T hird International Mathematics and Science study) schools, the tops are in the Netherlands. They have a very homogeneous country and school system with national agreement that their survival as a nation depends on their ability to remain the best at trading. And so their students, when they graduate from high school, are fluent in four languages. So the national unity is one aspect.

Another issue is a major impediment in America: We thrO\\I away about half of our mathematicians and scientists through a cultural attitude that says that minorities and women are not good at math and science. It's nonsense. American women and minori· ties arc not less intelligent than those in C hina, Russia or Europe, where roughly 50% of the scientists and engineers are women.

That is a cultural phenomenon, and I am very frustra ted with that.

In summary: America does not regard the learning of math and science as high a priority as other developed nations. We throw a\vay half ofour potential scientists, the women and minorities, who are told by our culture, though sometimes by the schools, that they arc not good at it. More importantly, with the workplace Ripon Fon.rm • Spring 2002

l

!

becoming so technical, we desperately need technically trained people in the workplace, not scientists or engineers, just technically trained people who understand the basics of science and math.

My favorite story now is something I heard on NPR rccendy. They interviewed a service manager at a garage to talk about the demise of the g rease monkey. They asked him: '\oVhat do you look for when you're hiring a mechanic?' and he said: 'The first thing is that they have to have passed high school algebra and high school physics.' Now, when I was in high school, kids who didn't even take or had flunked out of these courses were the ones who became mechanics. Today you can't be a mechanic without a high school education. Why? Modern cars arc computer-driven machi nes. You have to understand some math and science to follow the diagnostics. You can repeat this in almost any workplace. We as a nation have got to recognize this. It's a high priority for our kids to know the basics of science and math so that they can find a higher payingjoh.

RF: It seems that part of th e problem is that American stu · dents are apathetic to science and math . What can be done to get them excited about these subjects and encourage them to excd?

Rep. Ehlers:Better curricu la and better tnined teachers and, of course, parents who think it's important . The single greatest determinant of the success of a student is to have at least one interested and involved parent. If you don't have that, it's really tough. The second mOSt important is a weU·trained, weU·quali· fied teacher. Third most important is curriculum ; and fourth most importam is access to a decent building.

If you look at the T IMMS tcst agai n and oth er international tests, American kids do quite well at math and science up until the fourth grade, then it starts to fall off. What's happening is that young kid s are coming to school very curious and excited about science an d math, but at many schools these courses are nothing but book memorization. Memorize the facts, feed them back and get yourselves out . I've talked to high school students who say: ~Man, high school science is the worst subject we have.~ And I say: "What's wrong?~ They hand me their textbook, which is two inches thick, filled with facts that they're supposed to learn. That's not science. As a scientist I did scie nce, I didn't read about science, I did science and that's the best way to teach it.

&p. Ehlers: And that's the fault of the curriculum and of the teach·

"'.

RF: Can we find a balance of esse ntial learning a nd expe rien · tiallea rning?

R,p. Ehlers: Well , yes. In fact, it's being done in certain class· rooms. I've see n it; I've talked to students and it works. The reason it isn't propagating the way it should is as I said, lack of teachers. They have gone through the old system. They have not been exposed to the higher educational institutions to bet· ter understand science and how to teach it, so they go into schools and teach the way they had been taught. The science and edu· cation departments from the unive rsities need to get together and develop programs to educate future teachers on science and math and how to teach them. This has started happening.

The University of Arizona Physics Department is doing a great job. A few universities in Michigan are picking this up. I've spoken to a lot of university presidents, and 1 say that this is their most important task as educators. Some of them are doing it.

RF:The co mpute r ha s prove n to be an important educa· tional tool. Is there any way we can ensure that all kid s have access to a co mpute r a nd that those computers h ave the sa me capac ity?

Rep. Ehlas:The capacity of the computers is not all that impor· tant. Its what's on the computer, the software that makes the

RF: I think that shows problems with our standards of learning: that students are JUSt taught to regurgitate specific facts without cultivating an understanding of broader concepts.

Ripoo Forum • Spring 2002

7

difference. A lot of the compute rs that you're going to see in classrooms arc what I call the world's most expensive flash cards.

and the kids never learned anything and I fclt so sorry for those kids and, fra nkly, for their parents. T here are differences in teachers.

It asks you a question, you answer it, t hen it shows you thc answer and tells you if you're right or wrong. You can do that with li ttle pieces of paper with a question on one side and the answer on the other. We've been using them for years. That's not a very appropriate usc of a computer and overlooks their

They arc measurable. I think a layman could measure the d iffe r-

potentiaL What you rea lly want to use is interactive software. These programs arc so weU developed that they ask the student a question and analyze the nature of the answer. I f the child answers incorrectly, then it asks a series of questions to reinforce what the child needs to get the right answer the original question.

And ifit gets a different wrong answer, :lbrain it has a whole different sequence of questions built in. You keep doing thar until the student is getting right answers in the category. It's not even interactive at that point. It's just strategically thinking.

RF: As computers and multimedia are becom ing more and more prevalent in the classroom, do you think that there is a danger people wilJ mistake advancements in tech nology with improvements (0 m e quali ty oflCS50n plan, basically using a new technology to reach an o ld curriculum?

Rtp. Ehlers: Oh that '5 part of the problem. Schools arc just buying the computers and nOT knowing how to harness their potential. Although a lot of this is still in the development stage and some of the software isn't out there yet, the school boards, principals. superintendents and teachers all should be asking, ' How arc we going to usc them to their maximum advantage?'

RF: Most people do 11 0t d isagree that reach e rs are underpai d, bu t there is no r eal way to m ea sure their pe rforma nce ve rs us th eir reward s. Wh a t ca n we do to in sure that o ur teache rs are properly compe nsated for thei r effectiveness in the classroom ?

Rep. Ehlers: First of all, I disagree that there is no way to measure performance. This is often said within teaching circles. Where I disagree is the basically M arxist attitude that everyone be treated equally and all teachers will be on the same pay scale, no matter how well they perfonn or how poorly they perform. There an: many variations of teachers. I've secn it as a professor visi6ngdassrooms.

I' ll never forget one visit. because I've never felt so sorry for the students. Two classrooms side by side. Same grade level, same curriculum, in this case science. I visited one classroom and it was being taught beautifully and the kids wen: understanding it and the teacher was superb. The kids really got it and they loved it. I went next door to the other classroom, and the teacher was totally disorganized. It was in shambles. She didn't understand the program 8

ences by observation.

The biggest anomaly in the schools is failure to mcct the marketplace. Now, this argument that it is hard 10 measure performance you will hear in ever bu siness you go into, yet every business in this cou ntry does measure the performance of its employees and reward those who perform welL And here we have science teachers who, by and large, can double their salary if they leave teaching and go intO a commercial position. There is absolute ly no recognition of that in the schools and in fact the unions arc o pposed to any pay differentiation. So what happe ns? The best and brightest leave. The dedicated stay and there may be one or two of the best and brightest who arc dedi cated, but in many cases, the ones that stay are the ones who art' least competent in their field. So today, a student taking sc ience in middle school or high school, 65% of their It.'3chers do not have a major or a minor in the subject that they arc teachi ng. \ÂĽhen you go to physics, it bTCts even worse. Something like 50% of all high school physics teachers never took even one college course in physics. So not paying according 10 abiliry and matching the market has taken a very deleterious effect on teaching science and math in high schools and middle schools, panicularlyon high schooL

RF:: A lot of teachers have expressed a sense o f powerless ness when d ealing with disru p tive students who are interferi ng with the educatio n of o thers. What sorT of things ca n be done to deal with these srudents?

Rep. Ehlen: That's one I don't han! an answer for. I do know hO\vcver, that part of it has to do with the stmcrure of the public schools and stare laws about punishment oflcids and so forth. I'm not of a mind to go around bearing up kids, but rou must allowa certain kvd of discipline.

You cannot teach in a classroom where there is no discipline. J find it interesting, since mychildren \vent to private religious schools. Contrary to what some public school advocates would have you believe these arc not to keep them away from unruly studenrs. In fact, the schools they went to were actively recruiting kids from other schools who\vcrc having problems. 1 was pan ofa group who raised moncyto pay for their tuition. When they got in that setting, they were okay Sometimes, when you have a school that allows discipline and moreover requires discipline, the discipline is there. You can't ha\'e an atrimde that you can't do anything about it and that's j ust the way it is.

You're just not going 10 solve the problem. But I reallydon'l have an anS\vcr for tbatone. I think that is one of the toughest problems

III

we face toda),.

Scot Christenson is the editor of The Ripon Forum.

Ripon

Forum ¡ Spring 2002

Credit Where Credit Is Due The Republicans passed the 1964 Civil Rights Act bv . Michael Zak uring the Kennedy administration, toe Repub lican minority in

tory would have blocked his legislative initiati\'C in Congress.

T he 1964 Civil Rights Act was an upclate ofRepubliean Senator Charles Sumner's 1875 Civil Rights Act. In striking down that law in 1883, the Supreme Court had ruled that the 14'" amendment was not sufficient

Congress introduced many bills to protect the constitutional rights of blacks, incJudinga comprehensive new civil rights bill. In February 1963, to

head off a refilm by most blacks to the party of Lincoln, President Kennedy abruptly

decided

TO

submit to Congress a new civil

rights bill. H astily drafted in a single all-

!ughter, the Kennedybill fell well short of what the GOP had introduced into Congress the month before. Over the next several months, Democrat racists in Congress geared up fora protracted filibuster against the civil rights hill.

The bill \v:lS before a comminee in the H ouse of Representatives when John Kennedy was murdered in November 1963.

Invoking his slain predecessor, Lyndon Johnson made passage of the bill his top priority, and in his first speech to Con),,'1'Css

he urged Representatives and Senators to do "more for civil rights than the last hundred sessions combined~. TIlOugh he shared President Jolmson's convictions on safCguarding the constitutional rights ofb\acks. ifRichard Nixon had been in the VVhite House then instead, Democrats in favor ofsegregation and those unwilling tosee a Republican achieve the vicRipon Forum ' Spring 2002

E'V~~etf Di~hen (R- ILJ Smate Minority uader; 1959- 1969

constitutional authorization, so the 1964 version had to be wrinen in such a way as to rely instead on the interstate commerce clause for its constitutional underpinning.

Mindful ofho..v Democratopposition had forced the Republicans to weaken their 1957 and 1960CiviI Rights Acts, PrcsidentJohnson wamed Dcmocr:tts in Congress that this time it was all or nothing. To ensure support from ~­ ?Jh!iClIlS, he had to~ them that he would

not accept any weakening of the bill and also that he would publicly credit the GOP for its role in securing congressional approval.

Johnson plared nodirea role in the legislative fight, sothatit would not bcperceivoo as a partisan struggle. There was no doubt that the House ofReprescntatives would pass the bill.

In the Senate, Nlinority Leader Everett Dirksen had linle trouble rounding up the votes of most Republicans, and fonner presidential candidate Nixon also lobbied hard for the bill. Senate Majority Micllael Mansfield and Senator H ubert H umphrey led the Democrat drive for passage, while the chief opponents were Democrat Senators Sam Ervin, oflatcr Watergatc fame , Albert Gore Sr., and Robert Byrd. Senator Byrd, a fanner Klansman whom Democrats still call ~the conscience of the Senate~, filibustered against the civil rights bill for founeen straight hours before the final votc. The Houseof Representatives passed the bill by 289 to 126, a vote in which 79% ofRcpublicans and 63% ofDcmocrats voted yes. The Senate vote was 73 to 27, with 21 Democrats and oniy6 Republicans voting no. President Johnson signed thc new Civil Rights Act into law onJuly 2, 1964.

Overall, mere was little oven resistance to me 1964CiviI Rights Act. The struggle was not )'ctOVCIj ho\\"\:vcr, as most southem state go. . cmmenrs remained under the control of segregationist Democr:tts. It was a Republican federal judge who was one of the most responsible for dcscgrcgaring the Souths public schools. Appointt-dby President Eisenhowcrin 1955, Frank Johnson had overturned Montgomery, AJabrunas infamous "blacks in the back of the bus" law in his very first decision. During the 196Os, Judge Johnson advanced civil rights despite opposition from George Wallace, Lester Maddox. aM othcr DemocrJ.tGov-

III

ThisessayisadaptedfromMichael Zak's Back to Basics for the Republican Party, a history of /hl' GOP See www.rrpubliwllbasics.comfor more infonna/ion about/he book.

9

Down On The Farm Bill

by U.S. Ilcp" cscnlalivc John A. Bochner (1l¡0H)

This agreement gready expands the federal. government's role in American agrirulnU'C.

estimates and lead to dramatic deficits. And

Some examples:

it subsidizes the biggest farms at the ex-

A new dairy program will lead to over-

pense of those it claims to help: family farm-

production and lower prices.

ers and across the nation.

A new, untested Conservation Security Program will draw needed funds from

Let it be dear: Farmers and taxpayers deserve bener. Nty opposition to this bill is

proven conservation programs.

And new peanut, apple, onion, pea, and

American taxpayers, and the free-market

lentil programs will drain billions more

upon which our economy is dependent.

from the federal budget.

R~pmtnta/j'lJtJohn

Bothntr

he deal recendy reached by H ouse and Senate Farm Bill negotiatOrs

This bill will quickly surpass budget

based on my support for family farmers,

Alternatively, I proposed that we

Farmers and taxpayers deserve better. My opposition to this bill is based on my support for family farmers, American taxpayers, and the freemarket upon which our economy is dependent

represents a giant leap backward

in federal agriculrure policy. Under this legislation, farmers won't get the safety net they are looking for; they will get caught in a trap. a trap that will lead [0 overproduction, lower prices, and more reliance on the federal government for their moome.

Governmem payments already repre¡ sent more than 40 percenl of net farm in-

come.1bis percentage will only increase O\'er the course of this bill, as the measure pushes agriculture away from the market and

ward more government reliance.

10

[0-

To make manersworse,programs that

had been eiimina[ed years ago, such as the controversial and outdated \-\'001 and Mo-

hair program. have been given new life underthe new Fann Bill.

By expanding and creating new programs, the Farm Bill ignores in~stment in programs that could make farming families less dependent on government payments.

Research, trade promotion, and rural development programs are short-changed in the Farm Bill, leaving many farmers in the cold.

should pass a supplemental aid bill now to help farmers during this year's crop season.

And once the November elections are over, when sound, long-term policy takes precedence over typical Washington politics, we should revisit the Farm Bill and make r."I the right choices for the nation.

W

John Btuhner repmmts Ohio's 8th District.

He il the Chair ofthe House Edu(olion and Workforce Committee ond also serves on the Agri(ulture andJoint Printing Commit/us.

Ripon FonJm • Spring 2002

The Farm Bill: Growing stability for farmers and consumers by u.s. lIepI'escntative Gcol'ge II. Nethel'cutt, ]I: (II-WA) fter MO }'~ars of meetings, hearings, and negotiatio ns. the Farm Securityand Rural I n~stment Act 0(2002, known as "the Fann Bill,~ Ii, fi nill.y going "0 1><",,"",, ""wry_ There ha\'e been many criticisms of the new legislation that sets fann policy fo r the next six years, but those complaints often miss the goal of the hill.

The purpose of this year's Farm Bill is to ensure the American people have access to a safe, affordable and stable food supply.

This Farm Bill will cost the average American fam ily about 3 cents per day, covering everything from conscJVation to rural development, research, payments to fa rmers, and even the school lunch program.

PRODUCERS NEED STABILITY When farm commodity programs were first authorized in the early 1930s, most of the nation's six million farms were diversi fied and small by teday's standards. Twentyfive percem of the nation's population lived on a funn. Today, that number has shrunk to just 2 percent of the population activelyengaged in production agriculrure.

Since the first Fann Bill, agriculture has undergone a significant transformation.

M ost of our domestic food supply is produced by fewer, larger and more specialized farm and livestock operations. Most of the Rjpon

Forum ¡ Spring 2002

nation's two million farmers are primarily part-time, where operators rely on off-furm earnings for much of their income. With the traditionally low return on investment in the agricultural sector and high risk created by the uncertainryof the weather and markets, it is essential that the government protect irs domestic food supply. Farm assistance payments, which oniyaccount forone-fourth of the agriculrure budget, nor only assist this low-margin industry fraught with risk, but also protect consumers from the risk of shortage and volatile costs ofan uncertain food supply.

The 1996 Farm Bill was considered revolutionary because of the flexibility it afforded farmers. H owever, producers have told lawmakers that while they liked the new fl exibility, more stability is needed for farmers to be successful.

THE FARM BILL IS GOOD EVERYONE. NOT JUST FARMERS This year's legislation increases the safety net for producers by including a flXed amount for disaster assistance to be spent over the next 10 years, rathe r than forcing farmers to wait on Congress to aCt every year through disaster payments.

Unfortunately, agriculture disasters happen every year. This bill recognizes that fact and introduces greater predictabi.lity fo r farme rs.

R(pr(u"tQti'llt CMrgt Ntthtrcuft

FOOD SHOULD NOT BE USED AS AWEAPON Opening more markets to U.S. products is essential to keeping the funn eronomy healthy. J fought for several years to lift sanctions on trade \vith Cuba, Iran, Libya, Sudan and North Korea. While that barue was won, I'm disappointed that the Farm Bill does not include a provision to allow private financing ofagricultural sales to Cuba. Cuba is estimated to be a 51 billion market fo r U.S. agricultural products. I believe that our farmers would have the potential to reap larger sales to Cuba had private financing been allowed.

"

CONSERVATION, RURAL INVESTMENT, ANO RESEARCH MAKE UP SIGNIFICANT PARTS OF THE FARM BILL

addition to assistance for fi refighter and

to enhance ma ny of the assistance programs

emergency personnel training. Agriculture

available to children, seniors and others in

research is the backbone of our nutritious, stable food supply. T his bill authorizes increased funding for research programs by

need of help. The bill provides additional food to the school lunch program including

The new Farm Bill provides an 80per-

$80 m illion a yea r to help find ways to in-

and vegetables free to schools.

cent increase in spending for conservation

crease res istance to pests, disease and

programs, with significa nt increases going to the E nvironmental Q!ality Incentive Program (EQJP) to address ground water conservation issues, as well as the Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP), Wildlife H abitats Program (WHIP) and the Farmland

drought while also developing healthier and

W e have learned from our experience with our energy supply that being in a posi-

more producrive crop varieties for the grow-

cion of relyingon foreign markets for necessi-

ing world population.

ties can lead to great uncertainty and insta-

NUTRITION PROGRAMS CONSTITUTE THE BULK OF AG SPENDING

same instability crisis with one of our r.t

PrOtection Program (FPP), Rural credit programs are authorized in the Farm Bill that enable rural communities to improve thei r water and sewer programs and enhance broadband and local television service, in

Nutrition programs that benefit chil-

most precious resources: our food supply. ....,

a pilot program that will provide fresh fru its

bility.This Farm Bill makes sure that American fanners and consumers don't face that

dre n, seniors and low-income citi'l..ens account fo r about 55 percent of total U SD A spending. Nutrition program funding is increased S6.4 billion in this year's Farm Bill

Georgt Nethercutt rtpmmts Washington's 5th Distri{t. H t Jl!rtllS 011 the HOIIJl! Committees 011

Appropriations and $cit!1lu.

New Logo 002 marks the 40,h an ni versa ry of th e Ripon Society and the organization is co mm e mor atin g th e event by u nve il in g a strikin g n ew logo .

Symb oli zin g the Rip o n Society's co mmitment to pr o mo tin g Repu bli can values and shaping America's future, the logo styli shly incorporates a trumpeting elephant and the US flag. Created by Peak D esign, the image also emphasizes movement and en ergy, reflecting the Ripon Society's role as an act ive publ ic poli cy and re search organization. "The new logo is a fitting visual expression of the organization's identity and mission," said Bill Frenzel, President of the Ripon Society.

12

Ripon Forum â&#x20AC;˘ Spring 2002

Peace or Nuclear War in Kashmil'

Vladimir Putin met with both leadt.'J'S and ancmptcd to brokera sctdement.

MlLID:UTJfagreed tomcet. India, oo..\o\..'\'Cf, has always rcjl"Ctl-d ou[Sidc mediation of the

II)' u.s. IIcp,¡cscnlative Joe ')ius (II-PA)

Rrtrumla/iw Jot Pitts

at away, in one of the

most beautiful and exotic parts of the world, lies a region that has been embroiled in conflict for far too long. At the wcStern end of the Himalayas, Kashmir is caught among dle clash of Hindu India, Muslim Pakistan, and Communist China. TIueewars have been fough t bet\vecn India and PakisCUl since the British Empire ga'--e indepenclcncc tothc region in 1947. Along the wa); China carved out its cr.Vl1 piece of the Kashmiri pic. Forcr.'Crfiftyyears, inswgents h1\'e croSSt.'d the line ofcontrol, bullcl5 havc flown, and people havc died. Still. nothing seemed to change. But one thing has changed: each ofdle players now has nuclear weapons.

When the British ended colonial ruie, Kashmir \Y'aS given the oprion ofbelonging to India or to Pakistan. Despite its predominantly Muslim population, the Kashmiri ruler opted to merge with India. The result was three wars and a ceasefue that has I1L¡...cr held.

Ripon Forum ' Spring 2002

For decades, the United Nations has called for a referendum to decide the matter.

India has refused to allow it, insisting irsclaim to Kashmir is legitimate.

In 1998, India and Pakist:ln both tested nuclear weapons. An all-out \'\fllf between the nvo is now as unthinkable as a nuclear exchange benveen the United St:ltes and the Soviet Union once was. The price is simply too high. Nevertheless, Indian nationalists and al Q!eda-backed Muslim insurgems persist in trying to dest:lbilizc the siruation.

In recent months, things have gorten very dangerous indeed.

In October, Muslim terrorists attacked the provincial capital in Srinigar, killing 40 people. in March,a Hindu mobkillcd 1,200 Kashmiri Muslims prompting a hundred times that number to flee their homes. In May,Muslim insurgents attacked an Indian army camp, killing 30 peoplc. As the siruation worsened, over a million soldicrs from India and Pakist:ln massed along the line of control and have been glaring at each other for weeks. Some of them have been shooting at each other. The Indian navy took to sca.

The people of Kashmir \vere frightened.

TIle people oflndia and Pakistan were frightcned. TIle world, needing no reminder that both nations have nuclcarwcapons, was frightened as well.

Early inJune, an oppommity for negotiation appeared. Pakistan's President, Pervez Musharraf. and India's President, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, both artended a multinational security summit in the central Asian cultural and economic ce nter of Almaty. Kazakhstan. Russian President

conflict. Vajpa)'ce refused.

Emer the United States. A day after the Almaty summit. Deputy ScCfCt:lry of Stale Richard Armit'ah'e arrived in Pakistan to sec if he could succeed where Putin had failed. H e needed a gesture &om Musharraf---somethg he could convince Vajpayce to reciprocate.

Musharraf agreed to stop iVluslim milit:lnts from sneaking across the line of comrol into Indian territory. Musharraf insists that Pakistan has never lent more than moral, political. and diplomatic support to the Muslim insurgents. Neverthcless, this was a majorcommitment.

With Musharraf's agreement in his pockct, Secretary Armitage got back on his airplane and headed to New Delhi. There. he conveyed Pakistan's commitment ro Indian lcaders and strongly urged thcm to reciprocate. Thcy did. India agreed to lift its ban on flights through Indian airspace by Pakistani aircraft. India also called home its nary.

Presently. there arc still over a million trigger-happy soldiers along the line of control benvee n India and Paki stan .

Secretary Annitage's eff'ons may have averted \'\fllf for now, but the crisis is not over.

H o" ..evcr brilliant Secretary Armitage's diplomacy has been. more will need to be done.

Theworld community has all but ignon..-d this conflict for five decades.

In Congress, J and some of my colleagues have formed a bipartisan Kashmir Forum to educate our colleagues on the conflict and work for peace. No peace will be had, however, until the world diplomatic community begins to cxertas much energy in Kaslunir as it has in the world's other hot spots.

And. as with all such conflicts, both par- r:1 ties will ultimately need to compromise. II1II JOt PitlJ

JU1.IU

011 the Hou se Comm erce

IJ/U/llltN'1/(uiOlUl/ &/lltioll.s Aida Connl1iUel:J,

13

Two Bright Ideas to Reduce Drug Prices hy Alcxandcl' Taba ...¡ok

v~ryone

is conce rned about the ri sing price of pharmaceuticals but no one seems to know what to do about the problem. To be sure, solutions are being offered all the time. Among the most popular proposals afC imposing price comrols on pharmaceuticals, using the bargaining power of the federal and state governments to extract "voluntary" price concessions from pharmaceutical companies, or making it easier for generic drugs to reach the marketplace sooner 35 the McCain-Schumer bill proposes.

None of these so-called solutions, however, comes to grips with the fundamenta l tradeoff between lower drug prices and morc new drugs. Developing a new drug is an increasing ly expensive and risky process. The average cost of bringing a drug to market is now approximarely 5800 mjllion, and for every 5,000 compounds that are tested in the laboratory it's estimated that only one wiJi end up as a marketed drug. Pharmaceutical firm s spend hundreds of millions of dollars on research only because, if they get lucky, they will invent a blockbuster drug that will earn them billions of do llars in profits. Take away the prospect of a big payoff at the end of the 12 to 15 years of research that it takes to bring a new drug to market, and the incentive to develop new drugs is substantially dimin ished.

Almost every proposal to control drug prices pretends that this fundamental tradeoff doesn't exist - but it docs. The Ripon Forum ¡ Spring 2002

tradeoff, however, is not insurmountable. Two proposed reforms would in fact lower drug prices without reducing the incentive to create new drugs: patent buyouts and FDA reform.

Harvard economist Michael Kremer explains patent buyouts in his chapter in the new book Entrepreneurial EcorlOmics." Bright Ideasfrom the Dismal Science (Oxford University Press). Kremer argues that the government, or a wealthy non-profit foundation, should buy pharmaceutical patents and turn over the rights to the public for free. P atent buyouts would reduce pharmaceutical prices by 60 to 70 percent because instead of having to wait a decade or more for the patent to expire, generic-drug manufacturers could immediately begin to sell the new drugs in a competitive market.

Patent buyouts would not impede innovation because the innovating firm would be well paid for its research. Indeed, the

required clinical trials. Clinical trials do have value but the FDA does not weigh the benefits of additional clinical trials against the costs of drug delay; drug loss due to high costs making the production of some drugs unprofitable, and higher drug prices.

The FDA can make tv,o kinds of mistakes. It can permit a bad drug, and it can ('IiI to permit a good drug. T he FDA's biased incentives are a result of the fact that when it permits a drug that turns out to be bad, it is pilloried. Butwhen the FD A refrains from permitting a drug that would have done much good, it usually suffers little criticism. In addition, although the FDA's approval process is a significam factor in the high cost of drug research, the FDA largely escapes the blame for high drug prices.

As a result of these biases, FDA officials are very concerned that people might die from unsafe FDA-permitted drugs bur are much less concerned about the fact that people will die from a lack of effective therapies or high drug prices.

One FDA reform that should be immediately implemented is to allow any drug that has gained permission from the FDA's counterpart in other advanced countries to be sold in the U.S. (For other reform proposals see www.FDAReview.org.) f a drug is permitted in the European Union, for example, then within 90 days the FDA should automatically permit it in the U.S. H istorically, such coun tries have permitted drugs faster than the U.S. - with few adverse and many good consequences. Avoiding unnecessary delays and wasteful duplication of approval processes will reduce the costs of bringing new drugs to market, encourage more pharmaceutical research, and reduce drug prices.

Scientific advances are making pharmaceuticals an increasingly imp.ortant aspect of medical care. Calls for lower prices are thus likely to become more strident as time passes. But the regulatory attempts to reduce prices invariably reduce the introduction of newer, better drugs. If we want to reduce drug prices while maintaining or increasing the incentives to innovate we need to think more entrepreneurially.

Patent buyouts would not impede innovation because the innovating firm would be well paid for its research. patent buyer could easily increase the incentive to innovate by raising the buyout price.

But suppose a patent buyer does not know how much the fights to a new drug arc worth? What is to stop the patent buyout from becoming a wasteful subsidization of low-quality research? Kremer offers an ingenious solution to this problem: invite patent holders to tender their rights in an opcn auction.

Open and competitive bidding for the rights to the new drug would establish a good estimate of its true value. T he government could then use information from the bids to buyout the patent - perhaps with a bid somewhat higher than the top auction bid. Obviously, if the non-government bidders never win the auction they have no incentive to bid accurntely- the very motivation for conducting the auction - so Kremer suggests that in randomly chosen auctions the patent Tights go to the highest non-government bidder, rnther than to the government.

Patent buyouts would be expensive, but the savings to consumers of pharmaceuticals would be even larger. And, as the government is an important buyer of pharmaceuticals through Medicaid and Medicare, a portion of the buyout price would return to it through direct cost-savings.

Kremer's patent buyout idea complements proposals to restructure the FDA. The S800 million cost of bringing a new drug to market is not a fact of nature but is largely due to the expense of running FDARipon FOf\Jm â&#x20AC;˘ Spring 2001

I

Alexandl'r Tabarrok, thl' director of research for the Independent i nstitute, a public policy research organization hl'adquartered in Oakland, Calif, editorifEntrepreneurial Economics: Bright Ideas from the Dismal Science, andco-authorofFDAReview.org.

15

The Ripon Society Holds he Ripon Society proudly announced the 2002 Rough Rider Award recipients during its annual dinner held at the J'N Marriott in Washington, D.C. on May 8. The awardees included Congressman John A. Boehner (R-O H ), Congressman H oward Coble (R-NC), House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-TX), CongrcsswomanJennifer Dunn (R-WA.), Congrcssman J im Greenwood (R- PA), Senator Orrin H atch (R-UT ) and Congresswoman Marge Roukema (R-NJ).

In spired by the words and values of Theodore Roosevelt, The Rough Rider Awards Dinner seeks to recognize those who share the vision of the 26'" president of the United States and have made sig nificant contributions in the areas ofleadership, capitalism, conservation and democracy. About 500 people attended the event, which was Co-Chaired by Juanita Duggan of the Wine and Spirits Wholesalers of America and Robert H olleyman of Business Software Alliance. ~We are privileged 10 honor these individuals who, in the words omlcodore Roosevelt, "stood in the arena~ and did not abandon their principles in the face of adversity," said the H onorable Bill Frenzel, President of the Ripon Society. "Tonight'S awardees represent the broad spectrum of the GO P and highlight the basic themes that unite the Republican Party."

Each honoree received an impressive framed sabre and scabbard as a symbol of the courage, conviction and perseverance that marked President Teddy Roosevelt's career.

Congressman Coble, who was honored for his work in the protection of intellectual property, said the sabre would hang proudly in his office. ~l appreciate the fact that a group of moderate Republicans is large enough to accommodate a conservative like me, ~ said Rep. Coble, 16

Ripon Forum ¡ Spring 2002

ough Rider Awards Dinner cnson "and conversely, the Republican Party is large enough to wannly embrace the members of the Ripon Society,"

Fre nzel personally presented a special Rough Rider Award to Congresswoman Roukema who had rcccndy announced her retiremen t after 22 year of sClVice on the Finance and Education Committees. "] will miss working wi th myconstituents every day to represent their interests and serve their needs," said Rep. Roukcma ... I will also miss the give-and-take of the democratic processes of the Congress. Now I will turn myattention to finding new ways to help ch ildren and families. I will continue to speak out on behalfof good public policy and reforms where they are needed. ~ All of this years awardees have pushed for innovative policy solutions on a ,vide range of issues and have helped restore the core values of the Republican Party through the mcssagesofLincoIn, Roo5(.'vclt,and Reagan.TR would surcly have been proud to have included these leaders among his beloved Rough Riders.

Ripon Forum â&#x20AC;˘ Spring 2002

17

Progress Being Made on IRS Reform, but More Work Must Be Done by u.s. IIcp,·cscntativc lIob 1'00·lman (11-011) on IRS reform. One afthe first things we d id four years ago was enact more than 50 new taxpayer rights. Among the new rights we implememed was shifting the burden of

correctly. During the 1990s, 80 percent of

proof away from the taxpayer to the IRS in court. We also made sure that taxpayers had the right to receive damages from the I RS fo r negligence in collection actions.

Another important new taxpayer right expanded protection for ~in nocent spouses"

a customer service representative got through.

In 2002, wait time for questions on tax law was 2.58 minutes - down from 4.27

- most of whom are women who were unfairly targeted by the I RS for the tax liabilities of their ex-husbands. In addition R~puun/a/i'fH

Roh Portman

he Internal Revenue Service our nation's tax collector - will never be the most popular federal agency. After all, it is responsible for seeing that part of our hard earned money goes to the government, and it is asked to administer acomplex, confusing and sometimes unfuir tax code. At the same time, it needs to provide top-quality service and be effective in meeting taxpayer needs.

This is something I have been working for over the last five years. In 1996, I joined former Senator Bob Kerrey (D-Nebraska) in co-chairing the National Commission on Restructuring the IRS. This Commission turned the tables and audited the I RS to detennine why the agency had gotten so far off tmck. In our final report, issued in June 1997, we made dozens of recommendations on how to improve the I RS, which formed the basis for the 1998 IRS Restructuring and Reform Act. Now that it has been nearly four years since the bill was enacted, it is time to assess me progress we have made 18

to granting ne".. rights to taxpayers, we also created a new, public-private IRS Oversight Board to serve as an independent watchdog and bringprivatescrtor expertise to me I RS. We streamlined the IRS bureaucmcy by strengthe n ing the ro le of the I RS Commiss ioner and giving him more flexibility to bring in managers and experts from outside the agency. And we provided incentives to encourage people to file their taxes electronically, which leads to fewer errors that result in audits. T hese changes have taken some time to implement, but we are seeing some improvement in the way the JRS opemtes. I n 1998, according to one national survey, the public's mtingof the IRS was at an all-time low. TIlls same survey shows a 44 percent improvement in the public approval mting in me last t\VO years. A recent General Accounting Officcreport found mat the I RS has devoted morc resources to taxpayer service, such as telephone assistance and infonnation systems. Taxpayers are now having an easier time getting their questions answered, and getting them answered

taxpayer calls were met with a busy signal.

In 2002, even with increased volume, 66 percent of taxpayers who wanted to speak to

minutes a year ago. In addition, the IRS web page is one of the most helpful web pages in the federal government. In 1999, there were 1.12 billion hits. In 2001, the website was accessed 2.6 billion times. And during the last tax season, nearly one in three taxpayers chose to file elcctronically- an increase from 24.6 million in 1998 to 46 million in 2002 .

VYhile I am glad to see these changes are having an impact, there is still a long way to go. I would like to see the role of the IRS Oversight Board expanded, and see the Board become more involved in setting up long-tenn strategies and goals that would help improve the I RS. I also believe that Congress needs to take steps to help the IRS do a better job. To make compliance easier on taxpayers and make enforcement easier for the IRS, Congress needs to simplifY the tax code, and I will soon be introducinglegisJation to do just that. The I RS may never be the most popular federal agency, but there's still no reason why it can't be more helpful to taxpayers. ] am glad to see the IRS making steady progress, and I look forward to continuing our efforts to make sure that taxpayers get the fair treatment they deserve.

m

Rob Portman r~pments Ohio's 2nd Distria. serves on the House Budget and Ways & M~ans Committres.

H~

Ripon Forum • Spring 2002

2002 Midterm Election Races to Watch BATILE FOR THE HILL

W

ith the party divisions within the H ouse and Senate the closest they have been in 50 years, rhe stakes are extremely high for the 2002 midterm election. The GOP's prime

~

, ••, ,

political goal is to get the one seat they need to control the Senate while thwarting Dick Gephardt's aspirations to become Speaker.

However, the Democrats feci they are within striking distance of reclaiming rhe six scatS they need to C2pture the H ouse while also strengthening the hold on the Senate they gained whenJimJelfords defected from the Republican Party. Historical precedent is on the side of the Democrats because the party of the sitting president has suffered a nct loss of House sealS in 32 of the last 34 midtenn elections

- - . . - . \.. ., .,

~ •

~ '-.

?

"

?

?

and has not fared much better in the Senate. The GOP hopes that President Bush's general approval ratings will reve rse the trend.

FIGHT FOR THE GOVERNOR'S MANSION

I

n gubernatorial races, the Democrats are looking to continue their hot streak that has seen them win 12 of the last 16 elections. All

indications are that the COP is in for a rough cycle, having to

'"10

"f

•

•

,

defend 23 Scats of which several appear quite vulnerable. With

• ,--

only 11 of their seats on the ballot in 2002, the Democrats are in the position to gain a number of governors' offices. Again, the COP hopes that the popularity of President Bush and his involvement in the races will help fight off the surging Democrats.

Thefollowing are fhe raw lhal will he key i1l1haping the political landscape and tuhap! lipping lhe halanu ofpower.

KEY:

@)

Ripon Forum • Spring 2002

Sm i~ vi~wed ;U vlJln~rabl~ and has ~n targ~tt<l by th oppo~ing party

Redistricting wilt playa significant role in the election

Open sut

Member 01the Ripon Society Congrmional Advisory Board 19

GOVERNOR CALIFORNIA Conservative businessman Bill Simon,J r. was the surprise winner over the moderate fo rmer Los Angeles M ayor Richard Riordan in the GOP primary. Even top Bush political advisors believed that

Riordan was the logical choice for the nomination because his liberal tendencies made for a better match-up against incumbent Gray

Davis (D ). Facing a steep uphill battle, Simon will look to exploit Davis's less than stellar approval rating due to me state's energy problems and budget deficit. While pundits may consider Simon too conservative to win in a left-leaning state like California, it must be remembered that the same was said about Ronald Reagan in 1966.

FLORIDA ~

@I

Assuming that Janet Reno wins the Democratic nomination, the Florida gubernatorial race will probably be one of the

most emotional elections in 2002. Bitterness s[ill remains from the 2000 presidential outcome and Jeb Bush has had to endure a few accusations that he manipulated the Board of Elections to favor his brother, although there is no evidence to indicate any such efforts. Reno also carries her share ofcontroversy because of the Elian Gonzales fiasco and may ("lce huge opposition in southern Florida where passions still run high over the incident. Everyone had better hope that there in no need fora recount this time around.

ILLINOIS The GOP has been safely entrenched in the Governor's office since ta\ \1l _ 1976, but Gov. George Ryan (R) may prove to have been ~ l.tt=l aoncma.n wreclcingcrcw that knocked open a hole for the Democrats. Plagued by scandals thatatOllC point prompted almost half the state's population into believing he should resign, Ryan is retiring after setving one tCl11l. Sensing the breach, Rep. Rod Blagoj(:vich (D) ,vill count on ~'tate AttomeyGeneraJ Jun R)~Ul (R) (no relation) having to attend to too much damage control to salvage the scat for the GOP.

MICHIGAN Term- limited Governor John Engler (R) is an imposing political ta\ \IL. fo rce, but his influence may not be enough to propel ~ ~ Republican nominee Lt. Gov. D ick Posthumus into the seat he is vacating.T he Democrats believe Posthumus lacks the public profile needed to win and that state Attorney General Jennifer G ranholm (D) has the following and momentum to capture the office. It will be a tight general election that many pundits believe will tilt in favor of the Democrats.

PENNSYlVANIA With Mark Schweiker (R) declining to seek a full term after being elevatcdtoGovemorwhenTomRidgc(R)w"astappedto head the Office of H omeland SeOlrity. state Attorney

@~ 20

Genera! Mark Fisher ,vas given the daunting task of defending the Republican's hold on the Governor's office against Democratic heavyweight Ed Rendell. The liberal RendeU. former Philadelphia mayor and w-chainnan of the Democratic National Committee, alrc:tdy passed his first major hurdle in a primaryagainst centrist Bob Casey (D) in a battle that was billed by many as the barometer of the O Ne's direction. Initial polls fuvored Rendell over Fisher for this highly pri'l,(.-d seat.

SENATE ARKANSAS Democrats hope that after campaigning on a platform of family values, Sen. T im Hmchinson (R) may have alienated his base constituency by divorcing his wife and marrying a former staffer. Looking to unseat Hutchinson will be state Attorney Genera! Mark Pryor (D). Pryor enjoys name recognition through his futher, former Sen. David Pryor(R), and will attempt to define H utchinson as too conservative for Arkansas

IOWA The race in Iowa will be on the national radar this election becltuSe the GO P believes that it is where they have one oftheir best chances of picking up a Senate scat this cycle . Neither party seems to have a firm grip on the state (Gore narrowly won the state in 2000 with 49% of the vote), bur the Republicans have a sn ong candidate in Rep. Greg Ganske who has already served fou r terms in the House . Early polls show that incumbent SenatorTom H arkin (D) has the edge over Ganske, but the gap is rapidly dosing .

@

MINNESOTA Not only does Senator Paul Wellstone (0 ) have a liberal approach to politics, he apparently has a liberal approach to honoring promises. T he GOP believes that his broken pledge made in 1990 and 1996 to serve only two terms and his lack of legislative accomplishments \vill compel this increasingly Republican state toc1ect former St. Paul Mayor (and former D emocrat) Norm Coleman (R).

@

MISSOURI Jean Carnahan (D ) was appointed to serve a special two year Sen'@\ ate term after her husband Mel Carnahan (D) posthumously '+&J defeated John Ashcroft (R) in 2000. Sympathy fo r Carnahan seems to be f.."ld ing as polls indicate that fo rmer Congressman Jim Talent (R) will make this a very close race. Both parties are prepared to spend a lot of money to secure [his seat.

NEW HAMPSHIRE Democrats are hoping that incumbent Bob Smith (R) and John Sununu (R) batter each other senseless in the primary, softening the eventual Republican nominee for Governor Jeanne Shaheen (0 ) to take on in the general election. New H ampshire is not the reliable Ripon Fornm â&#x20AC;˘ Spring 2002

Republican state it once was, so the GOP may have a fierce battle

has been erratic, losing several races before being elected to the

on its hands no matter who gets the nod.

H ouse in 1990 only to lose again in 1994. T he G O P has to be feeli ng good about their chances of taking this one away from the

NORTH CAROLINA

Democrats.

The GOP looks to replace one prominent Republican with another as Elizabeth D ole seeks to take the Senate seat left by the n.'tiring Jesse

MAINE

~ Helms.Undt.TmcromrolofHclms,DemocralShadlitdeconfidcncc

W hen Rep. John Baldacci (0) announced that he would honor his

that they could capture the seat, but believe the vacancy has rome at a time when the shifting economy and demographics of the state gi\'C

~ pledge to serve only fou r teons in the H ouse and run for gover-

fonnerClintonstaff'cr Erskine Bowles a great opportunity.

the.zno.t D istrict. After primaries thinned the herd, Mike Michaud (D )

nor instead, a stampede of ten candidates entered the race for and Kevin Rayc (R) are now set for a Novcmbershowdown.l\1ichaud

SOUTH DAKOTA

probably will ha\'C the edge by tapping into Baldaro's strong base, but

In what could shape up to be Bush vs. D aschle, round one, Rep.

Maine has ahvays been full of swprises (as in 1992 when more votes

John Thune (R) is attempting to oust freshman Senator Tim Johnson

were cast for Perot than Bush) and this election remains difficult to

@) (D ). Johnson's seat had looked safe until Bush convinced the

predict.

popular T hune to run fo r the Senate instead of entering the gubernatOrial race as he had originally intended. W inning in Tom

MARYLAND

Daschle's home state would be particularly satisfying for the GOP because he has been nothing short of a thorn in the side of Bush

@) ~ ~

and it could be the victory that reverts Senate control back to the

popular among her constiruents. As they have for over a decade, the

Republicans, costing D aschlc the M ajority Leader post. Losing the

Democrats have targeted Morella and hope that the redistricting tha t

high profile post could also damage any aspirations D aschle had in

removed her few traditionally Republican communiticswhile saddling

seeking his party's presiden tial nomination in 2004.

her with even more Democratic areas will be enough to finally oust her.

Although represc ntingthe decidedly Democratic 8th district, Connie MorcUa (R) has remained

State Senators Mark Shriver and Christopher Van H oUen arc among

HOUSE

the &onmmncrs vying for the D emocratic nomination.

COLORADO W ith the newly fo rmed 7"" D istrict being a wide-open frontier, half a dozen ho pefuls joined the rush to claim it. Both parties claim to \Jl.__ have a slight advantage, but it appears that the constituency is ~ almost evenly divided between RepUblicans and Democrats.

The primary narrowed the field down to attorney Mike Feeley (D)

PENNSYLVANIA ~

__ M any feel the GOP may have erred when they forced Rep.

eI"'- T im H olden (D) out ofthe6'b D istrict and into the 17th District of George Gekas (R) during reapportionment. Although the district stiU trends Republican, the redrawn district contains coun-

and banker Bob Beauprez (R), but it is still anyone's race.

ties where H olden is incredibly popular. Because Gekas has cruised through elections relatively unopposed for ten terms, there is spC(;ula-

CONNECTICUT

cion that his campaign skills are a bit rusty and that the younger, cam-

It doesn't get much tighter than this. Because of reappo rtionment, th

Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) had her 5 district combined with Rep.Jim ~ _

~ l'v1aloney's (D ) 6"" district. The two incumbent moder-

d"" " .if!

ate candidates will now banle to win over a constiru-

encythat is f.tirly split herween the rwo parties. T he redistricting and registration numbers slightly favor Maloney, but Johnson has won

paign-savvy H olden can use his fiscally conservative record to attract enough votes from Gekas's base to pull an upset victory.

WEST VIRGINIA

@)

In 2000, Rep. SheUey Moore Capito became the first person to

accom plish something that no Republican has been able to

many admirers and may sway enough crossover votes because of her

do in W est Virginia since 1980:\vin. The Democrats think it was a

dedication to projects at both the local and national level.

fluke and are again runrungJim H umphreys and his buckets of money against her in the 2nd District. Capito has had a strong freshman term

INDIANA

and redistricting removed achunk of Democratic voters, but she will be

After narrowly losing in 2000, Chris Chocola (R) is wcll positioned

withom the benefit of George W. Bush's aggressive presidential r.'I

to take the redrawn 2nd D istrict as his former adversary Tim Roemer

campaign efforts in her state this time around.

~ ~ (D ) has decided not to run again. T he Democrats have

Swrres:AlmanacrfAmman Politics; The Hill; &/1Call; The Washingwn Pr;sr

....

dusted off ex- Rep.JiU Long Thompson in an attempt to fill the void left by Roemer's retirement. T hompson's trac k record Ripon Forum â&#x20AC;˘ Spring 2002

Scot Christenson is the edilorojlhe Ripon Fortlm 11

The State of the Nation Project

arlier this year, the Ripon Socicry conducted one of the most in-depth public opinion studies to explore post September 11 America. The "State of the Nation Project"

found a fundamentally changed political environment with profound implications for both political parties in the upcoming 2002 and 2004 elections.

The project revealed that through the tragic and heroic events 0ÂŁ9/11 , Americans' attitudes toward themselves, this country, and

each other have been indelibly altered in fou r significant ways: Americans have embraced a new, unwavering patriotism.

Americans have a deepened sense of unity, personal responsibility, and mutual respect for one another and arc moving away

voter groups i.e. Catholics, H ispanics, working women, union members, and particularly suburban voters.

The public's unease with the role of big business and the Republican Party's perceived ties to business should concern Republicans along with the fact that people associate the Democrat Party over the Republican Party on the values of civil rights and equal opportunities for all Americans.

Voters ha\'e little tolerance for partisan ideological conflict or negative messages. People want Washington political discourse to solve problems not to seIVe as means to score partisan or ideological points.

Voters will consider a broader array of issues when casting their

from the cynicism and moral relativism that have characterized the nation's cultural and political debate.

Americans have reassessed their values and their priorities.

Americans want political leaders whose behavior matches the selflessness of the heroic Americans they saw on September 11, and President Bush seems to be setting the standard in their minds.

votes in the futu re.

Increased concern about economic security and personal safety - values according to the survey most closely associated with Republicans - creates a better context for Republicans to discuss Issues.

For the GOP, the study reveals that this turn toward a new

President Bush has been viewed as a unifYing fo rce within the country as it transitions from the pre 9/11 world to this nC\y political

political construct coupled with the positive attitude of the public toward President Bush and RepUblicans is a unique opportunity to grow the party. ~The Ripon Society undertook this project because we believe it is important for our elected officials to understand the American people's reassessment of their values and priorities over the past year~ said Bill Frenzel, president of the Ripon Society. ~The results show that President Bush's unifying approach is setting the stan-

and cultural environment. His leadership and broad appeal has positively changed voter attitudes toward government, politicians, and specifically Republicans.

Given the change in the country's cultural attitudes and Bush's new standing with the American people, the Ripon study identified several key findings with significant political implications for the future. Among them were: The image of the Republican Party is significantly better than the D emocrat Party.

Bush has motivated the base while creating opportunities to grow the party among moderate, independents and other S\ving 22

dard for leadership post September 11 th, and has significantly r.'I improved the environment for all Republicans," said Frenzel. . . .

To learn mort abollt tht aS tate of the Nation Project -, visit W'W'W.

riponsoc.org.

Rjpon

FOl1.lm â&#x20AC;˘ Spring 2002

American Interests and Geopolitical Realignment Ily Thomas Ilcnr'ikscn

G

eopolitics is not something Americans spend a lot of time thinking ahout; we leave that ro Foggy Bonom types. Bur recent developments on the international landscape warrant much more attention than they have attracted.

The Bush administration's success in moving Russia closer to the West represents a remarkable change in geopolitical alignment. T he 19905 witnessed an emergi ng anti-American partnership be tween former adversaries Russia and C hina, which Washington seemed powerless to impede.

For much of the past decade, Beijing has wooed a weakened post-Soviet Russia by evoking common extremist threats and resentment of U.S. supcrpowcrdom. Last July, China ob-

cosigned the Shanghai Cooperation Organization charter-along with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, T ajikistan, and Uzbekistanwhich strengthens previous treaties on reducing forces along mutual borders and cooperating against terrorism and separatism. But appearances fooled no one, especially not China, for it understands Moscow's recent p ro-Western tilt.

At the beginning of the Bu sh presidency, China's ascendant economy. size, and ambition seemed poised to confront a United States estranged from R ussia and assailed by Europe for its unilateral ism.

George W. Bush, however, succeeded in undermining thi s looming Moscow- Beijing axis by dra\ving Putin into the U.S. anti-

tained Russia's signature on the Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation, which, among other things, recognizcd Beijing's claim to T aiwan and further pitted the two states against U.S. in-

terror ism campa ign, attaining the Kremlin's acquiescence in the deployment of U.S. forces in Central Asian republics, defusing its resistance to Washington's pullout of the ABM treaty, and assuaging its opposition to NATO's eastward enlargemen t by granting it greater sway with the NAT O- Russia Council in May. For

tervention by highlighting the role of the Uni ted Nations.

The broadening Sino-Russian entente be~n to raise red flags. Instances ofconverging interests strengthened these misgivings: China buys Russian ships and planes for its offshore agenda. Both fight separatists in Central Asia's former Soviet republics, some of whom infIltrated western China. Beijing, the senior partner in the Russo-Chinese corporation, has been ~ining influence in Inner Asia as M oscovite power recedes. Behind China's gambit is the quest for access to the vast oil and gas reselVes in Inner Asia.

By fonningcloscr relations with me Kremlin, the Middle Ki ngdom also hopes to break out from its perceived American encirclement and secure its northern border in an effort to pursue a more assertive posture, or "forward policy, ~ in the Pacific.

Ostensibly, Beijing and Moscow consummated their romance this June when Presidents J iang Zemin and Vladimir P utin Ripon Forum ¡ Spring 2002

Russia, it gets a more reliable partner with the United States plus the benefit of having the United States in Central Asia.

Thus the Bush administration should receive as much acclaim as Richard Nixon did thirty years ago for realigning China on America's side against the Soviet Union. I n the present case, Bush has moved Russia closer to the West and outflanked China on the strategic chessboard. This statecraft could result in a genuine realignment benefiting the West and Russia. Now it's time to turn our attention back to China and continue to engage it in a twenty-firs t-century framework of security for the great

powers.

m

Thomas Henril:sm is a seniorjellowllnd associate director at the HoO'Uer Institution.

23

Combating Agricultural Bioterrorism P rotecting America's Food Supp ly

by IlclWYSo l'arokclO

he attacks of September 11 , 2001, made Americans acutely aware of their vulnerability to terrorism. Now the United States is focused on improving defensive measures and rooting o ut and destroying the global infrastructure of terrorism. In response to the terror is t offe ns ive , the Bush administration engineered an international coa liti o n against terrorism; dedicated substantial new resources to prevent or deter this blight; has undertaken military action against blatant practitioners of terrorism; and established a new Office of Homeland Security, under the leadership of former PennsylvaniagovernorTom Ridge.

As America continues to prepare defenses against cataStrophes barely conceivable only month s ago, the threat of bioterrorism in particular looms larger than ever. Fears of anthrax, smallpox, and plague pervade the American consciousness, fueled by the reports that some of the plane hijackers involved in the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks had specific interest in crop duster aircraft that could be used to disseminate aerosols of pathogens.

Because of this, the United States has

stepped up its de fen ses against such threats.

Neverthele ss, litt le attention has been given to agricultural biowarfa re and bioterrorism o r to the roles and responsibilities of the public and private sectors in deterring and responding to potential attlcks. Few Americans appreciate the gravity of the threat of bioterrorist attacks against the American food and agriculrure infrastrucrure. This point is exemplified in a General Accounting Office (GAO) report on combating terrorism released 9 days after the attacks of September 11. The report did not address threats to American agriculture, nor did it involve participation by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). It focu sed only on terrorism directed against mcivilian targets"; therefore, according to GAO, it "did

not focus on terrorism directed against agricultural targets." GAO explained that agriculture was not included in the review because it has not been designated a critical national infrastructure.

But agriculrure is a critical American infrastructure. It constitutes one-sixth of gross domestic product (GD P) - over a trillion dollars a year. The food and agriculture sector is the United States' largest emRipon FOI'\lm â&#x20AC;˘ Spring 2002

genetic engineering have raised the p rospect of transgenic pathogens and pests that are resistant to conventional control methods. In addition, it maybe hard to distinguish a biological amck from a naru-

ployer, one of eight Americans works in an occupation directly supported by food production. Agriculn Lre exports total over S50 billion annually, making the farm sector the largest positive contributor to the national rradc balancc.1ne f.umingsysrem is the most productive and efficient in the world, enabling Americans to spend less than 11 percell! of

disposable income on food. compared to a gl0bal average of20 to 30 percell!.

Officials are beginning to recogn ize that this vast networkoffood and fiber production, processing, distriburion, and sales is a potential- even inevitable - target of hostile interests employing biological agents for political, economic, or criminal objectives. Even the threat of anack could jeopardize consumer confidence. disrupt commodity markets, and wreak economic havoc.

American agriculnLre is often concentrated, highly accessible, vertically integrated, and oflimited genetic diversity; historically it has been free of major disease outbreaks. sovarnnes are not routinely used.

Consequently, pathogens could be introduced easily and spread rapid ly. Widespread use of antibiotics in livestock production makes U.S. animals vulnerable to antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Advances in Ripoo Forum â&#x20AC;˘ Spring 2002

United States is poorly prepared to prevent and respond to attacks o n its food and agriculture infrastructure. The Federal Government must actquiclcly and decisively to protect food and agriculture systems. If we

fuiJ to act, the consequences could be fur more

ral disease outbreak. Signs ofinfections may be manifes ted slowly, delaying effective response by authori ties. Finally, attacks agai nst agriculture may be

damaging and long lasting than a direct and more visible terrorist attack against people.

To combat this threat, it is critical that the Federal Government. state and local governments, and the agribusiness sector clearly identify mutual roles and responsibilities and develop a coordinated strategy to address the threat. US DA should lead

less risky to perpetrators than attacks againST humans because many anti-

the development of this strategy.

To assu re readiness, USDA should provide Federal leadership with a coordi-

agriculrure pathogens afe comparatively safe to work with. Also, public reaction may be less intense because hu-

nated, stand-alone, interagency strategy and p rog ram to combat ag ricultural biowarfare and biorerronsm. Stand-alone

mans are nor being directly targeted (un less the goal is food contamination), and there is currently no national policy prescnbingcnminal penaltics fo r biological attacks against targets other than humans. he Federal Government is beginning

atte ntion and USDA leadersh ip are both d esirable and j ustified because the department has overall Federal respo nsibil-

T

to re spond to the eme rging th reat of agricultura l biowarfare and biolerrorism.

Federal intelligence agencies, in cooperation with USDA , arc defining the extent of the th reat and br ieflllg key Government officials. Federal research agencies, led by USDA, are mobili zing resources and deve loping research plans 10 detect and idenrif}"epidemiologica11ymap, and control delib e rately introduced pathogen s an d pests. Agriculture and foo d safety are now included in a Nationa l Security Council (NSC) framework for preparedness against weapons of ma ss destruction. Yet, despite these initiatives, the

ity for food safety and security and a broad range of p rograms and capabilities to deter and respond to threats against food and agriculture. It also has connections with the grassroon; interests and the national agribusiness specttum through an extensive network offield offices, agricultural extension specialists. research facilities, and land-grant universitit.'S in virtuallycvcry American county. In fact, USDA may be unique amOllg Federal agencies in the closeness ofits ties to constituencies. If subsumed into larger Federal programs, agricultural concerns could be buried in the enormouslycomplex national security and counterterrorism bureaucracy, where it would be overshadowed by h u m an health issues, cyberterrorism, and more conve nti o na l threats.

2S

However, stand-alone attention should not be construed as acting in a vacuum. A national program to protect food and agriculture must be strongly linked to other national security and counterterrorism programs through the NSC structure and should involve strategic partnerships with other Fede ral, state, and local agencies and nongovernmental organizations - all of which have programs and capabilities that can contribute to the agriculture program - and with the private sector. Key objectives of a national strategy should be to: establish clear, well-coordinated Federal interagency mechanisms for gathering, assessing, and sharing sensitive intelligence information about hostile threats to U.S. food and agriculture increase significantly Federal research capabilities related to animal o r plant health, food safety, and agricultural biowarfare and bioterrorism expand Federal staff in key areas create well-coordinated interagency mechanisms among USDA, the Federal Bureau of I nvestigation, and the Department ofDefensc for collaborative forensics investigations identity and include clements of other Federal terrorism and bioterrorism strategies that are applicable to countering agricultural bioterrorism expand and strategically site national supplies of critical vaccines and pharmaceuticals to protect against and treat the agricultural diseases most likely to be launched by terrorists establish a nationwide electronic communications and data management network that links the private agribusiness community with emergency management staff, field response personnel, and key Federal, state, and local agencies develop and implement a national emergencydiscase responsc plan for food and agriculrure 26

establish clear roles, responsibilities, expectations, and performance measures, as well as coordination mechanisms, for Federal, state, and local public and private organizations and interests identity feasible options for providing fInancial assistance to agribusiness interests impacted by biological attacks develop and implement professional and public education programs improve international cooperation to deter and respond to agricultural biowarfare and bioterrorism. he consequences of a biological attack against U.S. food and agriculture could be devastating - in terms of both economic impact and the undermining of public confidence in the nation's food supply. A program to protect against bioterrorism will not be cheap - an investment of several hundred million dollars is needed. H owever, given the potential risk and the fact that the United States is ill prepared to deter or respond to an attack, it cannot afford not to act.

T

An aggressive, well-coordinated effort to combat agriculrural bioterrorism will also

have substantial ancillary benefits. Many antiterrorism actions could simultaneously help prevent or contain natural livestock and crop diseases, including a plethora of newly emerging diseases. Natural diseases cost U.S. agriculture billions of dollars annually. I n addition, the effort could improve the safety of America's food, already an important national priority. Finally, this initiative will strengthen partnerships and improve coordination among agencies and organizations with responsibilities, programs, and capabilities to address a significant national threat. Perhaps, because the threat is more focused and manageable than other potential threats against the nation's infrastructures, an effective, well-coordinated program may provide a model fo r other r.'I counterterrorism efrons.

W Henry S. Parker, institute for National Strategil Studies Ripon Forum ' Spring 2002

From Carriers to Congress A Ripon Interview w ith

us. R epresentative Mark Kirk (R-IL)

epresenting the 10'" D istrictoflllinois, Congressman M ark Kirk shares many of the fiscally conservative and culrurally moderate values of his former boss and predecessor, Congressman John Porter (R). W ith a solid background in policy making, Rep. Kirk entered his freshman tenn in 2(X)() after gaining valuable legislative experience working for Rep. Porter, the State Department, and on the staffof the U.S. House International Relations Committee under Chairman Ben Gilman (R-NY), Rep. Kirk is also a Lieutenant Commander in the Naval Reserve who has been involved in operations in Turkey, Yugoslavia, and Panama. H e rccenclydiscussed how his background helped develop his perspective on several issues with the Ripon Fornm.

RF: How has your experience as a Naval Reserve officer helped shape you as a Member of Congress?

Rep. Kirk: That's probably the most important experience I have that influences me as a Congressman. In 1946, three quarters of the Congress had military experience. Tociay it's less than twenty percent bur rapidly f.1.d ing. There arc only fifteen members of Congress who served in the military after Desert Storm. The most important power that we have is [Q decided between war and peace. W ith less than five percent of the Congress having any experience in moclern conflict, it has put an incredible weight on those of us with such experience to explain how the modern post- Desert Storm military carries out its duties. It means that in the back rooms of the committees and in the cloakroom you gctcalled on a lot to explain what's happening.

RF: You were Congressman Porter's C hief of Staff early in your political career. What 's the most important thing you team ed in that time? &pmtnlative Mark Kirk

Ripon Forum â&#x20AC;˘ Spring 2002

Rep. Kirk. I think the most important things I learned from that experience were the complCJcityofthe process on Capitol H ill, how details 27

RF: Do you believe that Bush's proposal to have a program of ,'oluntary emissions reductions and improving study in climate studies will have an effcct?

&po Kirk I think that that is a good step, but again I would be for mandatory controls, as long as all countries participated.

RF:There has been heated debate over racia] profiling fo r several years, but the events of9/ 11 have brought even more attention to this issue. How can we protect nauona] securiry while a]so protecting the rights of the individual?

Rrp. Kirk Racial profiling doesn't work. Deciding to search an airline

really matter, and the importance ofbipartisan cooperation. Building cross-party alliances makes the difference between acrually getting action to the President which people sign and merely making it a debating point.

RF:The Bush Administration seems to be at odds over how lO approach global warming. How do you think the United States should proceed?

IVp. Kirk: Climate change is ahvays occurring. It's very important to understand the cycle of the sun and the standard ecological processes that we know cause climate change. But it's also clear that man is having some effect. I W".lS a Congressional Observer to born the Kyoto and the Buenos Aires Climate Change Conferences, and I was worried about the direction the Clinton Administration was taking. There is a need forimemational action on climate change, but that's not what the Kyoto treaty stands for. It represents a principle that the United States andJapan should restrict ourl,>Teenhouse gas emissions but that China and all other developing countries shouldn't. Unfortunately; China is the second largest polluter in the \vorld, and sometime in the next decade, China will become the number one polluter in the \vorld.

Mother Nature doesn't check the zip code of the pollutant and think that the pollutant coming from one country is okay where one coming from another is not. Foran effective climate change treary, we need all countries to participate. So that's why I would support going back to the negotiation table, putting China back into the Kyoto treary, and then rarifying it.

28

passenger based on the color of their skin is faulty logic. Terrorism experts will tell you that in effcct what we ha\'e to do is build:tn airline securiry system much like Israel's. TIley do aggressively profile the characteristics of a passenger, but it's not based on race. Usually, key factors are purchasing a ticket with short notice, using cash, multiple ticket purchases, being una\vare where you are staying that night or )QUI" final destination. Then, certain national characteristics arc checked, for instance ifyou are coming from a counuy that officially sponsors terrorism, like North Korea, Iran, Iraq and the Sudan. Those are all legitimate profiling factors. We are not talking about profiling Americans, because we were not attacked by American citizens. We were attacked by peoplc who were not American citi7.cns. And giving a heightened awareness to people from other countries here I think is entirely appropriate.

After 9/11 we recognized that a passport with a signature and a photO, which was readilycounterfeitable using 1890 technology, is nOt a useful document anymore. Over time, we arc going to institute some of the highest tech sUiveiliance systems possible in airports: Magnetic imaging systems and what I'm mostexcitcd about, the retinal scan. It is going to be incredibly difiicult for a terrorist organization to cover up or mask that part of the retina. That will assure us thaI the people scckingto enter the United States arc actuallywho !heyate. Vve've got to upgnde to what is useful, to kt.'ep people who would kill Americans out of the country, RF: To what do you attribute the apparent intelligence failure in anticipating the attacks?

R~p. Kirk I served the intelligence community as a pan-timer for thirtt.'Cn ),ears, and our intelligence communlt)' is supremely designed to defeat the Soviet Union. Ask me to find a Russian naval ship, and J can find it anywhere on the planet in eight hours, and sink it very quickty thereafter. But a picrure of some men ralking in a Lebanese courtyard tells me nothing about what they're saying or what they're thinking. Only a human agent can do that. We destroyed the human intelligence capabiliryof the United States through the Church Commission in the 1970's, Somt.'One who's been in thc intelligence community would say, "Well, we still have a few human agents," yet the

Ripon forum ' Spring 2002

overwhelming emphasis of the entire US intelligence community ison satellites, which only provide images. To track conventional military movements, sarcilites are superior, but to track a clandestine terrorist operation,onlyahuman agent can cIo that. People ask, "H O'Nlongwill it take for the Unired States to rebuild our human intclligencecapabiliti es?~ and I say: -How long does it take to learn Urdu or Pashru, or Dari?" This is not 007. We ue going 10 have to launch a huge, but fairly mundane operation to min Amcric:ms in the languagesoffurty different countries where terrorist org:uul:ltions spawn so that we can not only learn the language, but dleruirure. l oat is the onlyway\\IC can quickly pcn:eivc threats. fur before they reach our shores or the shores ofour allies.

RF: You havebcena strongsupporrerofprovidingaid to Israel. Do you belic\'C their approach to combating terrorism is working, or is onlymakinggroupslikcHamasandod'll..'ftcrroristrebtcd groupssoung?

Rip. Kirk: Well, they already were srrong to begin with. It's important to know first of all that some groups like H czbollah should never be referred ro as Palestinian groups. J-Iezbollah is a wholly owned subsidiaryofthe rviOIF, the Iranian Intclligence. If the MOIF withdrew their funding, J-Iezbollah would collapse O\'Cmight. Hamas is a more indigenous organization. But \vc are coming with, after 9/11, a common definition ofwhal a terrorist is. People used rogn'e the trite phrase thafone person's tcrrorist is another person's freedom fighter.' We have seen kamikaze attacks before, but note the moral difference bet\veen a Japanese Kamikaze and a Hamas suicide bomber. "me Japanese Kamikaze attacked a milit.uyt:argct, whereas the suicide bomber will walk into agrocerystore in order to kill civilians.

There is a culrure ofinrolerance that has been bred on the West Bankbystate politics. In a little known move, the Palestinian Authority removed all the Jordanian textbooks on the West Bank in the middle parr of the last decade. The old Jordanian textbooks in the third grade would say something like: ~ Take ten apples, remove seven, and how many apples do you have lcft?"The new textbooks say "Take ten Zionists, kill seven and how many Zionists do we have left ro kill before we can create a Palestinian state?"To inject intolerance and hatred into the third grade is not something that the Pales~ tinian people have decided; it is something their leaders have done to them. TIleY ha\'~ crt.'ated a whole culrureofbigorryand intolerance in the elementary classrooms on the 'A'cst Bank.. So it's no surprise then that a sixteen-year-old girl will attempt to kill civilians on Market Day. It's up to us to use thc moral clarity of September 11 '" to say what's wrong. and attacking civilians is wrong no matter who docs it. lbat'Swhy I'm looking forward to an eventual passing of the torch from Arafat, whose time is clt.'arlypasscd. to another leader. H opefully this new leader can embrace what \Y:lS offen.xi at OL.lo and Camp David: ninety se~'Cn percent of the West Bank to cteate a Palesrinian state which can live with its Israeli neighbors, \vithout teachingpcople in the third grade to hate, which is what Anlfut did.

Ripon Forum â&#x20AC;˘ Spring 2002

RF: You helped to create the G lobaJ Program for AIDS. What does this program have to offer and what kind ofeffect has it had on Ihe A I DS epidemic?

&po Kirk That was created because of advances in my district al Abbot Laboratories at Deerfield Illinois, which developed the first AJDS test. TIley donated thattcst ro the Work! Health Organization.

In 1984-1985. we thought that theAJDS virus was concentrated in New York and in San Francisco. Using this test. the WH 0 came back with an astonishing f.'lct that the epidemic was actually located in Central Africa. That was really a caJl to action to my former boss, John POrler, and I, to launch an international coordinated effort against AJDS. Since the Black Death, we have not had a virus with such a lethality rate. T he introduction of AlDS into the human population with a five-year morralityof 100%, which it was at the time. \Y:lSlin unprecedented threat. So, wc joined together with the Democratic Congressman from Long Island who is long si nce retired. Bob Mra7.ck. We asked the Appropriations Committee, which at the time was run by Democrats, fora 25 million-dollar program to stan the international cooperation. Congressman David Obey. who \Y:lS the Chairman at the time, said 'No way.' We called the press conference any\Y:l)', and he was so embarrassed thatObe),tinallycame along and endon;ed dX' t\veI1ty 6\1t.' million.

I joined together \vith Dr. Jonathan Mann, head of the Public H ealth School at H arvard and we realized that the WHO burcau-

cracy in Africa was corrupt. He urged that we create an entirclyseparate program outside ofme WHO. That's where the Global Program on AIDS began. It was a partnership between the United States and the WHO, creating an entirely new program to combat what was a cuning edge threat. John Porter and Ben Gilman began leading the charge, calling for this to be recognized as the threat that it was. Since that time, we have spent well over a billion dollars on it.

Just before I ran for Congress, as a staffer for the International Relations Committee, I held two hearings on the AIDS epidemic. I could hardly get anyone there. I then resigned from the Congress as a staffer and ran for Congress. After a long day of campaigning, J remember ruming on C-SPAt'\J and seeinga debate on the House floor where leading Congressional Dcmocmts were excoriating Republicans for not spending enough on the International AIDS Program.

Talk about ] ohnny Come Latdy,'bccause Republicans had founded the Program and had \YOrla..'d on il forfifu.'CJl years. Butwcwclcomed people to thecause. Now, Republican and Democratic leaders in the Congress are competing for who can give more money ro fight AIDS ~rseas. and I think that's great. It took them ten)tJ.fS to 6gureout what was happening, but the more the mcnicr, because this is such a gioba1 threat.

For ~mple, we are dealing with a situation in Uganda where you've got three hundred thousand kids already who do not have parems. In Lusaka, the capitol of Zambia, the net population is actually projected to decline, soldy due to AIDS. This is something we need to get a handle on. Right now, Abbot is continuing to develop AlOS technology, releasing the most powerful AIDS drug on the market over a year ago, called Ciletra. This drug allows an American, if they can afford it, to drive their virus load to zero and live a life even though they're positive. But in Nrica, wherc the per-capita health expenditure is less than five dollars, it is only a vaccine which can offer hope to those countries. And moving the research for.vard to a vaccine is what we've got to do to save these countries.

RF: You've been a staunch supporter of campaign finance refonn , helping to get the Shays- Meehan bill passed in the House.

What do you say to critics who say that eliminating this source of fu nds will limit the pany's ability to reach the public? ~.

Kirk: As a member of the International Finance Comminee, J was sitting next to my partner Hillel Wtneburgwhen he receive an email from a vice president of Hong KonglShanghai Bank, saying "I thought you should know that the Executive Vice President of our bank is and always has been a Chinese intelligence officer. H e has been passing large amounts of money to the Democratic Party through and I ndonesian company. ~ We looked into it, and found that this one gardener in Alexandria, Virginia, who made 516,000 a year has contributed 1425,000 to the Democratic National Committee using this mone}' that had been raised by the C hinese military and funneled through a group called the Limbo Group. We 30

were outraged to see this and then we were stunned when we found out that it was legal for the Democratic National Committee to use White H ouse operatives to raise money from Ihe People's Liberation Army in China. At thar point I became a supponer of campaign finance reform. We have got to make it completely illegal for a political party to raise money from a foreign military like President Clinton did. Since 1908 it was illegal for a company to give money to a federal candidate. Since 1947 it's been illegal for a union to give money to a federal candidate and since 1974 it was illegal for a fo reign government to give money to a fede ral candidate. All of this is strictly legal ifyou gave it not to the candidate, but to the party.

Clinton's use of that loophole, raising money from a foreign government, was something that just had to be stopped. That's why I support campaign finance reform.

RF:As a board member of tlie Population Resource Cen ter, what do you belic\'e is the number one population and development issue that the American public should be concerned about?

Rrp. Kirk Well, there are nvo things happening. One, \ve should be concerned about expanding family planning services to developing countries and that's why I acrive1ysupporr the United Nations Population Fund. The United States should be very concerned \vilh Ihe future stability and safety of Mghanistan. We've realized that ignoring Mghanistan doesn't work because it turns into an international cancer that then seeks to attack us. The a\'erage Mghan woman has seven kids. We have got to lov'c.r her fertility. That comes in two \V.1YS: The fastest way to lower a woman's fertility, surprisingl); is not to give her husband a condom. It's to teach her to read. So female literacy is a critical thing in lowering her fertility. But also, at some point she will want safe and effective contraception. The data shows that about half of the women in the lllird World would like to have smaller families if they could. We need to make that available.

The second thi ng is that there is a new demographic trend which policy makers have not dealt\vith at all. Europe is disappearing. I taly will be half the population it is now in thirty-five years.

How to handle the fact that European women arc progressively having fewe r children and the streSses that will put on the foreign policy of the United States and the makeup of Europe have not been studied. Europe is demographically changing very quickly and I don't think that senior policy makers yet understand what is happening, but it \viU mean that our traditional allies, even the mother country, in the no.1: generation is going to look radically different than in the past. This image of the st2ndard Italian family having six kids is (Orally wrong.

The average Italian family now has less than one. That's happening in Gennany, that's happening in France, and what that does to the r.'I US f oreign Policy is going to be major and unknO\\Ill. I.IrriI

Scot Christenson is the editor of The Ripon Forum.

Ripon FOI'\Im â&#x20AC;˘ Spring 2002

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