FREE AND FAIR ELECTION FORUM OF AFGHANISTAN
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 2013-2014
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Table of Contents Acronyms ......................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Preface ............................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 About the Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan ...................................................................................... 11 Organization Overview ........................................................................................................................................................ 11 Previous Elections-Related Activities of FEFA .................................................................................................................... 11
Survey Description ........................................................................................................................................................13 Summary of Methodology ................................................................................................................................................. 14 Literature Review .................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Interviews with Afghan Experts ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Concept Mapping Workshops .............................................................................................................................................15 Focus Groups ...........................................................................................................................................................................16 Public Opinion Survey ............................................................................................................................................................16 International Expert Opinion .................................................................................................................................................17 General Note on the Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 17
Findings .......................................................................................................................................................................... 20 1. Afghans massively support elections but are wary of fraud ...................................................................................... 20 1.1 Support for the idea of elections is overwhelming‌ ................................................................................................. 20 1.2 Afghans intend to participate in the upcoming elections ‌ ................................................................................... 23
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 1.3 … if they have been registered as voters. ................................................................................................................... 25 1.4 Satisfaction with elections is decreasing...................................................................................................................... 27 1.5 Voters are less deterred by insecurity… ....................................................................................................................... 33 1.6 … than by electoral fraud and government interference......................................................................................... 37 2. Afghans want their leaders to focus on peace, justice and education .................................................................... 40 2.1 Afghan voters want to choose for themselves… ....................................................................................................... 40 2.2 … electoral concerns are peace, education and the economy… ........................................................................... 45 2.3… and Afghans prefer ethical candidates to ‘efficient’ ones .................................................................................... 48 3. Organization of Elections .............................................................................................................................................. 50 3.1 Afghans have mixed feelings about the electoral institutions… ............................................................................. 50 3.2 Experts are not satisfied with the Single Non-Transferable Vote system ............................................................ 55 3.3 Political Parties could play a positive role, but they don’t ...................................................................................... 56 3.4 There are many problems with the candidates’ campaigns .................................................................................. 57 3.5 Women are discouraged by obstacles in the electoral process ............................................................................ 58 3.6 The role of foreign organizations is problematic ..................................................................................................... 62 4. Afghan Attitudes Towards Democracy ........................................................................................................................ 69 4.1 There is still a lot of debate about what democracy means and its effects on Afghanistan ........................... 69 4.2 Afghans are positive about progress made so far and future prospects … ....................................................... 72 4.3 … and overwhelmingly support democratic rights, particularly equal access to justice … .............................. 76 4.4 … but support to democratic rights is not unconditional... .................................................................................... 83
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 4.5 ... while the current state of democratic development is insufficient ................................................................... 84
Annexes.......................................................................................................................................................................... 86 Annex A: Sources Used ...................................................................................................................................................... 86 Annex B: Questions to the Afghan Experts ..................................................................................................................... 88 Annex C: Concept Mapping Data: Identifying Barriers to Electoral Participation ....................................................... 90 Annex D: Provincial Focus Groups.................................................................................................................................... 97 Annex E: Sampling Points of the Survey .......................................................................................................................... 99 Annex F: Questionnaire (English translation) ................................................................................................................... 115 Annex G: International Experts Questionnaire: .............................................................................................................. 133
About This Report ...................................................................................................................................................... 137
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Acronyms CM
Concept Mapping (also refer to Annex C)
CSO
Civil Society Organization
DK / NA / RA
Don’t Know / Not Answered / Refuse to Answer
FEFA
Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan
GIRoA
Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
IEC
Independent Electoral Commission
IECC
Independent Electoral Complaints Commission
MP
Member of Parliament
NGO
Non-Governmental Organization
SNTV
Single Non-Transferable Vote
RASERA
Research and Advocacy Support for Electoral Reform in Afghanistan
UNDP ELECT-II
United Nations Development Program Enhancing Legal and Electoral Capacity for Tomorrow-II
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Preface For too long now, the debate about the future of Afghanistan among international experts has centered around two questions: do Afghans want democracy and, if so, are they truly ready for it? After 12 years of partnership between the Afghans and the international community, these questions are disappointing. At best, the questions demonstrate a lack of nuance required to understand a complex society like Afghanistan. At worst, they are a demeaning approach to a people who have been fighting for the right to determine their own affairs since the Soviet invasion three decades ago. Are Afghans ready for democracy? In 2002, I served as the spokesperson for the Emergency Loya Jirga, a national assembly of over 1500 representatives elected by their communities to elect the head of the transitional government and to set the course for the nation’s future. From those early days of the post-Taliban era onwards, I have witnessed firsthand in many corners of this country from Zabul to Kunduz, from Mazar to Khost and from Helmand to Bamiyan and Nangarhar - the desire of Afghans to participate in shaping their future. This enthusiasm for pluralistic, participatory processes has been demonstrated time and again, in the four major elections we have had, and in other forms of democratic participation. In each of these processes, many Afghans, young and old, urban and rural, men and women, challenged the misperception that “Afghans do not want democracy” by engaging directly and with passion in the electoral process. As Afghanistan fast approaches its third round of presidential and provincial elections in the past decade, what Afghans really think about democracy has once again become an open question. There is no doubt the question holds great significance to the international community’s continued work in Afghanistan and the Afghan people themselves. There have been many laudable efforts to answer these questions, but they too often lacked an Afghan perspective.
This enthusiasm for pluralistic, participatory processes has been demonstrated time and again, in the four major elections we had, and in other forms of democratic participation. In each of these processes, many Afghans, young and old, urban and rural, men and women, challenged the misperception that “Afghans do not want democracy” by engaging directly and with passion in the electoral process.
This survey by the Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan is the first time Afghans lead the debate about democracy in Afghanistan.
This survey by the Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan is the first time Afghans lead the debate about democracy in Afghanistan. By involving experts, politicians, civil society representatives and members of the general public, it provides a valuable summary of perceptions and attitudes towards democracy from all segments of Afghan society. The report goes further than the Page 5
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections tired questions of whether Afghans “want” democracy or not, but asks what democracy means to Afghans. Support for elections among Afghans is overwhelming. Despite the threat of insecurity, widespread poverty, and lack of proper infrastructure throughout much of the nation, 92% of respondents support the idea of elections and over three quarters say they intend to vote in the upcoming elections. While we clearly perceive that for the Afghan respondents to this study, democracy is not only about elections, it is nonetheless clear from the findings of this study that Afghans see elections as the most cornerstone of an accountable and stable government and society based on rule of law. President Karzai by facilitating and supporting this round of elections, is responsively positively to this shared desire of Afghans for the institutionalization of democracy. By facilitating the first everpeaceful democratic transfer of power, he will be remembered and cherished as one of the founding fathers of the peaceful and democratic Afghanistan.
Do Afghans want democracy? Are they ready for it? This report offers a clear answer to both questions from the frontlines of our nascent democracy: yes.
Do Afghans want democracy? Are they ready for it? This report offers a clear answer to both questions from the frontlines of our nascent democracy: yes. It is my hope that this answer will resound as loudly in the conference rooms of international experts gathered to debate Afghanistan’s future as it does in the villages and towns across Afghanistan that will go to the polls in just a few weeks’ time. Ahmad Nader “Nadery” Chairman Free and Fair Elections Forum of Afghanistan (FEFA)
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Executive Summary The Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan (FEFA) found, in its survey of 4040 randomly selected Afghans in all provinces of Afghanistan, that they massively support the principle of elections: 92% of survey respondents declare their support, while only 5% oppose the idea of elections. More than 75% of respondents confirmed they intend to vote in the upcoming elections. This is more than the voter turnout in previous elections. Nevertheless faith in electoral processes in Afghanistan is decreasing. While 45% of respondents consider that past elections were free and fair (against 36% who consider they were not), when asked about the upcoming presidential elections, only 25% think they will be free and fair (against 43% who think they will not be). The relatively high percentage of respondents (32%) who prefer not to answer the question indicates, however, that in November 2013, when the survey was held, many Afghans still preferred to reserve judgment. FEFA found that 17% of all respondents have not registered to vote. The main reasons given for the intention not to participate in the 2014 elections are fear of fraud, discontent with the candidates, lack of information or interest, and insecurity. Insecurity is particularly mentioned in Southwest Afghanistan, Southeast Afghanistan and in West Afghanistan. The Taliban are mostly feared in Southwest Afghanistan, but remarkably, insecurity is elsewhere often dissociated from insurgent activities. The inhabitants of Kabul and the Central Region are most disinclined to vote: only 64% declare they intend to cast their ballot in 2014, while a full 34% say they will not. This is because of expectations of electoral mismanagement, fraud and discontent with the candidates. The most fervent supporters of the electoral process are to be found in the Central Highlands. FEFA asked respondents how they will choose for whom to vote: 85% of them said they would choose for themselves, based on candidates’ qualities and programs; the 9% who declared they would follow the advice of others would mostly refer to family and friends, while only a small amount of respondents said they would follow the advice of a religious or political leader. As international and Afghan experts pointed out, this result must be seen as a desire to overcome the patronage
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections system which heavily influences Afghan politics; in the end, however, voters will make rational choices within that system, as it cannot be undone in the short term. According to respondents, the main issues of the 2014 elections should be: bringing about peace, improving education, strengthening the economy and justice reform. Justice and education are qualities that are also emphasized in the characteristics sought for in candidates themselves. A clear preference is given to candidates with ethical integrity, over those with positions of power, who can “make things happen”. Regarding the organization of elections, the surveyed Afghans overall have confidence that the electoral commissions (Independent Electoral Commission and Independent Electoral Complaints Commission) have sufficient technical capacity to handle the electoral process; but respondents, experts and focus group participants point out that the commissions suffer from political interference, which takes place particularly through presidential nomination and recruitment policies. This lack of independence causes Afghans to distrust the outcome of the electoral process. Fraud is expected to occur more at the central level than locally. Insecurity is seen as a factor exacerbating to fraud. Afghan experts reject the current SNTV electoral system. About half of them would prefer a fully proportional system, while the other half advocates for a mixed system. Political parties are seen, both by experts and by focus group participants, as a necessary ingredient for a functioning democratic system, as they are best placed to mediate between society and state. However, the current political parties are seen as a negative presence by all experts and respondents. This is partially due to the SNTV system, but historic and ethnic factors also play a role. Related to this is the criticism of candidates’ campaigns, which also need to be regulated according to practically all experts and focus group participants. Large disparities in access to funding, unequal access to media and state resources and lack of professionalism are some of the concerns expressed. Campaigning is seen as particularly difficult for women candidates. More than 75% of respondents (among both men and women) consider it important to increase the electoral participation of their community’s women. Scores are particularly high in the Central
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Highlands and the North and West of Afghanistan. Suggested measures to enhance the participation of female voters are mostly to improve the location of polling stations and their facilities (making them more gender-friendly) of polling stations. FEFA asked survey respondents whether they thought foreign countries and organizations would influence the 2014 elections, and what they thought the role of these foreign entities should be. Almost half the respondents think foreign countries will influence the upcoming elections; among these the USA is mentioned by 87%, followed by Pakistan (71%) and Iran (63%). Europe is also seen as wielding a lot of influence over the elections, while the influence of multilateral organizations such as the UN is seen as minimal. According to survey respondents, focus group participants and Afghan experts, the international role should be to fund and monitor the electoral process – although the danger of dependency on foreign funding is clearly recognized – providing assistance in terms of security, technical support or political pressure where necessary. Only 27% of respondents think “foreigners” should not be involved, especially in case of support to specific candidates by neighboring countries. Considering the overall changes in Afghanistan over the past ten years, 85% of survey respondents are positive, a surprisingly high percentage when considering all the above-mentioned problems. They assess that not only their country has improved, but also the well-being of their family. Focus group participants consider that positive changes occurred especially in education, political reform, improvements for women and minorities, infrastructural development and media freedom. Negative changes cited are the increase of corruption, economic and social injustice, narcotics abuse and insecurity. Respondents are also positive, although less so, when considering future prospects: 68% of them think Afghanistan is moving in the right direction, while only 15% see their country moving in the wrong direction. Young respondents, and those living in the more prosperous and stable regions, are more positive than elderly Afghans living in the South and East of the country. The view of focus group participants, questioned at length about the definition and consequences of democracy, shows that the definition of democracy is rather elastic – as infrastructural improve-
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections ments and narcotics abuse are both imputed to democracy. FEFA therefore asked survey respondents what they thought of some basic democratic principles, such as the independence of courts, the right to demonstrate, the equality of all before the law and the freedom of media. Average support of these four principles stands at 78%, with 13% against them; support is notably overwhelming in the domains related to justice – 87% support the concept of independent courts and 85% that the powerful must obey the laws of the country to the same degree as the powerless. Survey respondents also see that the current state of democratic development is lowest on justicerelated matters: only 21% consider that currently the courts are independent and 27% that powerful people obey the laws of the country; but in terms of the right to demonstrate and media freedom, 54% and 66% believe that the situation is satisfactory.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
About the Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan Organization Overview The Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan (FEFA) is an independent Afghan non-profit civil society organization established by a coalition of civil society organizations in 2004. FEFA is both an organization and a network. Our membership includes fifteen domestic civil society organizations committed to strengthening the participation of Afghan citizens in public life and democratic processes, and an additional sixteen organizations who partner with the Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan during elections. FEFA’s vision is a peaceful, democratic and well-governed society where all citizens have equal rights and opportunities for participation. Our mission is to be a national, independent and impartial institution working to ensure that all democratic processes are implemented transparently through networking, citizen participation and good governance. All of FEFA’s work is guided by the values of professionalism, commitment, networking/consultation, national inclusiveness, impartiality and volunteerism.
The Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan’s vision is a peaceful, democratic and well-governed society where all citizens have equal rights and opportunities for participation. Our mission is to be a national, independent and impartial institution working to ensure that all democratic processes are implemented transparently through networking, citizen participation and good governance.
FEFA works to achieve its vision and mission through five main activity areas: election observation; parliamentary monitoring; technical support and capacity building; women’s outreach, research and advocacy in support of democratic development of Afghanistan.
Previous Elections-Related Activities of FEFA Since its founding ten years ago, FEFA remains the only Afghan organization that has both a nationwide network of elections observers and that has observed all four election cycles. FEFA’s first initiative was to observe the October 2004 presidential elections during which it deployed 2,500
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections observers to 100 districts inside the country and in Pakistan (for out-of-country voting), covering 13% of polling centers nationwide. Since that time, FEFA has also observed the 2005 parliamentary elections, the 2009 presidential and provincial council elections and the 2010 parliamentary elections. Since 01 August 2013, FEFA has been engaged in the “Deepening Democracy: 2014 Election Observation Project�, for which we are deploying over 10,000 observers to cover 70% of polling stations nationwide. This round of election observation is a comprehensive project covering all stages of the electoral cycle, including the candidate nomination and vetting process, campaign period, polling day, vote counting and vote tallying process. FEFA reports on past elections observations http://www.fefa.org.af/index.php/report.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Survey Description Since Afghanistan began its path to democracy over a decade ago, numerous surveys and other studies have attempted to gauge what Afghans think about elections and other components of democracy in their country. These studies have differed greatly in their assessment of Afghans' support for these concepts, with some portraying Afghans embracing democracy wholeheartedly and with few reservations and with others portraying Afghans as highly suspicious of democracy. What Afghans really think matters greatly to the work FEFA does in promoting democracy in the country. As an Afghan organization working closely on the ground, FEFA feels it is uniquely placed to pose questions to Afghans, in ways and in words that make sense to them, to add to the body of work of surveys on Afghan public opinion. FEFA set up the Research and Advocacy Support for Electoral Reform in Afghanistan (RASERA) for this purpose. RASERA is an information-gathering and analytical endeavor that will help achieve the following ultimate goals:
To aid national and international elections stakeholders to make informed decisions; To increase Afghan citizens’ confidence in Afghanistan’s democratic institutions; and To increase citizen engagement in the political process.
RASERA will contribute to achieving these goals through realizing the objectives of generating public discussion around the findings of the study, making policy makers more aware of Afghan public opinion and contributing to the process of policy and electoral change. The thematic areas of focus for the study, identified through a literature review and discussions within the FEFA team, included: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Electoral institutions i.e. Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) and Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC) and electoral legislation, Technical/logistical operations of elections, Candidates and campaigning, Political parties, and The influence of foreign actors on democratic processes and elections.
RASERA was designed to include the voices of different sections of Afghan society, including Afghan technical experts on elections at the central Kabul level, influential and informed Afghans at the provincial level and ordinary Afghans throughout the country.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Summary of Methodology RASERA was designed to include the voices of different sections of Afghan society, including Afghan technical experts on elections at the central Kabul level, influential and informed Afghans at the provincial level and ordinary Afghans throughout the country. To capture the opinions of these groups, a variety of quantitative and qualitative data collection tools were employed, including a literature review, interviews with Afghan experts, focus groups and Concept Mapping (CM) workshops in provincial capitals with influential and informed Afghans, completed by a public opinion survey of ordinary Afghans. The general logic of the project was to move from more qualitative investigation with a smaller number of persons with high levels of expertise, to more quantitative tools with more persons with lower political literacy. A description of RASERA’s data collection methods is provided below.
Literature Review Prior to field research, a literature review was conducted to refine the research questions, to summarize what was already known about the research questions, to identify areas of controversy/conflict in the existing body of research and to identify gaps in knowledge that require further investigation. The literature review helped ensure that the final report builds upon and complements previous work instead of duplicating research. Moreover the questions for the interviews with Afghan experts were extracted from this literature review. In total, from a long-list of publications, twelve sources were extensively consulted; this list can be found in annex A.
Interviews with Afghan Experts Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a total of 13 Afghan “experts” in Kabul from the following groups:
Government policy-makers; Members of Parliament (from the legislative, judicial, civil society and human rights committees); Independent Electoral Commission; Representatives of civil society; Afghan media.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections FEFA conducted five “practice” interviews with youth MP and civil society representatives (two women and three men) to field test the questions. Afterwards, the survey questions were refined and more formal interviews were held with 7 male and 6 female representatives and officials from the aforementioned groups. The questions covered each thematic area of focus for the study (outlined in the purpose section above) and can be found in annex B of this report. The interviews yielded a total of 672 minutes of audio discussion that was transcribed, coded with software and analyzed to use for this report and help inform subsequent stages of the research project.
Concept Mapping Workshops Following the interviews with Afghan experts, FEFA conducted provincial workshops in Badakhshan, Balkh, Bamiyan, Faryab, Helmand, Herat, Kabul, Kandahar, Kunar, Kunduz, Nangarhar and Paktia. This wide geographical coverage ensured that the participants were roughly representative of Afghanistan’s major urban/rural, geographic, ethno-cultural and religious groups. These workshops had a total of 360 participants (228 male and 132 female) from the following categories: representatives from civil society organizations, government officials at the provincial and national level, and community leaders such as teachers, shura leaders, journalists and mullahs. The provincial workshops consisted of two data collection techniques: (1) Concept Mapping and (2) Focus Groups.
Concept Mapping (CM) is a tool to generate, collect and analyze the ideas of a group on a particular topic. Participants were broken into groups of two to four persons, segregated by gender. Each group was asked to think of barriers, relevant to their communities, to a free and fair election taking place in 2014.
Concept Mapping (CM) is a tool to generate, collect and analyze the ideas of a group on a particular topic. Participants were broken into groups of two to four persons, segregated by gender. Each group was asked to think of barriers, relevant to their communities, to a free and fair election taking place in 2014. Participants then rated barriers from one to five according to two metrics: the importance of the barrier and progress made in overcoming the barrier. The barrier list was compiled in Kabul and condensed to 73 in number. Barriers were then sorted into piles by FEFA’s Provincial Coordinators for conceptual similarity. The barriers, their ratings and their sorting were afterwards run though CM software for analysis to reveal the relative importance of barriers and how the barriers relate to one another. The data produced by this software can be found in annex C of this report.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Focus Groups In each province two focus groups were held after the Concept Mapping workshops, one for women and one for men, with groups of eight individuals on average. The probe questions for the focus groups were developed based on information from the literature review and interviews with Afghan experts. The questions covered
Conceptions of and opinions towards democracy, Support for elections, Assessment of progress made in the country since the start of democratic rule after the fall of the Taliban regime, Assessment of the IEC and the IECC and The role of political parties.
All discussions were recorded, transcribed, coded with software and analyzed for use in this report. A list of the focus groups with the questions asked can be found in annex D.
Public Opinion Survey The nationwide public opinion survey was the last data collection instrument to be rolled out and was based on the preliminary results of the more qualitative tools described above. The sample size was 4,040, yielding a survey with an approximate margin of error of ±1.55% at a 95% confidence level. Based on census data from the Afghanistan Central Statistics Organization, the sample was stratified first by province in proportion to its share of the national population; then by urban-rural areas proportionate to the provinces’ percentage of urban and rural inhabitants; and finally by gender (50-50%).
The sample size was 4,040, yielding a survey with an approximate margin of error of ±1.55% at a 95% confidence level. Based on census data from the Afghanistan Central Statistics Organization, the sample was stratified first by province in proportion to its share of the national population; then by urbanrural areas proportionate to the provinces’ percentage of urban and rural inhabitants; and finally by gender (5050%).
Within each province, districts were randomly selected with the number of sample points corresponding to the district’s population. Sampling points were then randomly selected within each district and replacements made where necessary for security or logistical reasons. A total of 14 sampling points were replaced for these reasons. Each sampling point consisted of 10 surveys. A full list of sampling points can be found in annex E. The sample size and sampling method yielded data that was statistically significant at the nationwide and regional level, but not at the provincial level.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections The questions of the public opinion survey covered, broadly, three topics: general socio-economic data about the respondent, opinions and attitudes towards the elections, and questions about fundamental democratic values. They were informed not only by the previous steps of the survey (Afghan experts, focus groups, Concept Mapping exercises) but also by a careful reading of other surveys performed in Afghanistan. There was an effort to go further than other surveys, which often do little more than scratch the surface. At the same time, in order to avoid overly lengthy surveys – often an incentive for dishonesty or carelessness – the questions were brought down to a strict minimum, focusing on those issues FEFA thinks are really core to understanding public opinion. The questionnaire was written in Dari and Pashto and translated into English. It can be found in Annex F. The public opinion survey was conducted in October and November 2013, only six months before the scheduled presidential and provincial council elections. FEFA submitted 15% of the surveys (602 of 4040) to a back-check, calling the numbers that the respondents had provided. About half of them were either wrong numbers or unreachable (not being picked up) after a few tries; of the 300 who did reply, 295 confirmed they had participated in the survey.
International Expert Opinion When all the data had been entered, a first raw selection of data was presented to a group of international experts, together with questions about its analysis. Rather than selecting people who, because of their institutional position are assumed to be experts, FEFA selected only people who have been following Afghanistan for a long time: from academic circles, NGO research, media, international think tanks and policy institutes. A list of the international experts, along with the questions which were submitted to them, can be found in annex G. The novelty of this approach – in fact, asking these international experts to analyze the data and thus help FEFA write this report – was rewarding. Their comments and interpretation have been added, just as that of the Afghan experts, to the report anonymously.
General Note on the Methodology RASERA was a unique and first time endeavor for FEFA. FEFA felt it needed in-house capacity to conduct surveys, analyze the results and publish findings. It needed this to overcome some of the
Unfortunately, many of the criteria for excellence and control imposed by international organizations on their Afghan implementing agencies, lead to increasingly sophisticated deception techniques. This is a pitfall that FEFA desired to avoid. This is one of the reasons for desiring to develop the capacity to conduct surveys. Another reason is capacity building of FEFA itself. While RASERA team had experience in major research and analysis but still they got introduced to novel analytical methods, new statistical operations, new software and complex planning.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections issues with surveys of Afghan public opinion, particularly regarding political subjects, that have been conducted over the past years. One of these issues is a disconnect between those who desire, order, plan and write the survey – often international organizations – and those who collect the data and do the primary data-entry – usually Afghans. On the one side there is the exigency for reliable and representative statistical information, on the other the Afghan reality – to start with, an approximate census, followed by an uncertain topography, difficult access to many communities and cultural barriers. To give an example: it is standard practice, internationally, to work with a ‘Kish Grid’. When having (randomly) selected a household for an interview, all the members of that household must be listed, and then the interviewer, through a rather complicated process, selects one person of that household (over 18) for the interview. If this person is not available, the interviewer must return at a later date, paying up to three ‘callback’ visits at different times. If the selected member of household is not willing to participate, the interviewer must randomly select another household. This system has been devised to avoid speaking only to the person who opens the door (often the head of the household or a senior male member of the family) and thus achieve a more representative poll of public opinion. In most parts of Afghanistan requesting the names of all household members is a rather delicate matter; chances are that the head of household or person opening the door will insist that he/she conduct the interview him/herself, instead of allowing the surveyor to interview a thus randomly selected member of the household. Refusing this could be socially awkward, and even potentially create a danger for the surveyor, who is on unfamiliar territory. Besides, returning to the house at a later stage can be quite difficult for many reasons: distance, security, budget, etc. Altogether, such a system as the Kish Grid will be quite difficult to implement. Nevertheless, in a recently conducted survey using this system, of a larger scope than the present survey, it was reported that in more than 99% of the cases the surveyor, using this system, managed to interview the member of household thus selected on the first visit, without having to pay a callback – the report attributed this convenient success rate to the time of day and the high rate of unemployment in Afghanistan, suggesting that if one chooses the time of day for the interview
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections carefully, one can find all members of a household at home, each of them ready to partake in a lengthy interview, more than 99% of the time. Unfortunately, many of the criteria for excellence and control imposed by international organizations on their Afghan implementing agencies, lead to increasingly sophisticated deception techniques. This is a pitfall that FEFA desired to avoid. This is one of the reasons for desiring to develop the capacity to conduct surveys ourselves. Another reason is capacity building of FEFA itself. While the RASERA team had experience in major research and analysis, this project introduced it to novel analytical methods, new statistical operations, new software and complex planning. Of course we are not able to ascertain that each survey form was filled in honestly; but we did do our best to avoid pushing our surveyors to be dishonest. At the last minute we decided not to use the Kish Grid, so almost half of the survey respondents are head of household. It can be argued that heads of household have, in Afghanistan, more sway over the political opinions of other household members than in other countries. We also exerted the highest degree of effort to ensure the surveyors, and the provincial coordinators overseeing them, would enjoy their job and therefore be frank. It is our job not only to raise civic awareness about political issues, particularly pertaining to electoral democracy, but also to increase the capacity of Afghan civil society to perform valid political analysis; to give ourselves the tools to understand ourselves. We hope we have succeeded on both accounts.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Findings 1. Afghans massively support elections but are wary of fraud “If the upcoming election is as the previous one, it will be a big loss for the nation. Therefore, the people and government should cooperate to organize a fair and transparent election.” (Focus group women, Kunar)
1.1 Support for the idea of elections is overwhelming The question asked from 4040 respondents throughout the country was: “Do you support the idea of elections?” Do you support the idea of elections? Central/ Kabul East Southeast Southwest West Northeast Central Highlands Northwest Total
No, I don't 7.5% 6.1% 5.3% 12.3% 1.3% 5.6% 1.1% .9% 5.0%
Yes, I do 88.9% 91.8% 89.8% 85.6% 96.0% 90.7% 98.2% 97.0% 92.1%
“If the upcoming election is as the previous one, it will be a big loss for the nation. Therefore, the people and government should cooperate to organize a fair and transparent election.” (Focus group women, Kunar)
I don't know 3.6% 2.1% 4.9% 2.1% 2.6% 3.7% .8% 2.1% 2.8%
92 % of the respondents affirmed they support “the idea of elections”; only 5% said they do not, the remainder said they don’t know. Regional differences range from 86% support in Southwest Afghanistan to 98% in the Central Highlands.
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Do you support the idea of elections? 100%
Do you support the idea of elections? 100%
2%
4%
94%
90%
4%
6%
Male
Female
90%
80%
80% 70%
60%
60% 50%
40%
40% 30%
20%
20% 0%
No education
Some education
Higher education
I don't know
4.3%
2.9%
.9%
Yes I do
88.2%
93.2%
96.0%
No I don't
7.5%
3.8%
3.0%
No I don't
Yes I do
I don't know
10% 0%
DK/NA Yes, I support No, I don't support
Support for the principle of elections increases with education, although even among the large group of respondents with no education, support still stands at 88%. Similarly, support for elections is overwhelming among both male and female respondents, even if slightly higher among men than among women; 90% support of the idea of elections among women, however, is still very high.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Opposition to the idea of elections is concentrated in particular localities If one zooms in on the region where opposition to the idea of elections is the largest – Southwest Afghanistan - it appears that, although factors such as employment, income or education do seem to play a role, the main determinant is geographical location. Opposition to the idea of elections is only 2% in Helmand, 4% in Uruzgan and 5% in Zabul – which places them all under or equal to the national average of 5%. Even in Kandahar, where the opposition is above 25%, it is concentrated within a few villages in specific districts: Gul Bagh and Hajji Toor Kelai in Dand district, all surveyed villages (Abdulqudoos Khan Kelai, Baiban Dara and Hajji Shah Ghasi) in Daman district and Chuni, Mirwais Neka Meena and Shahr-e Nao in Kandahar city district. But even in these particular localities, one will always find support for the idea of elections among half the surveyed population.
This very high rate of support for the idea of elections did not surprise any of the international experts. As one of them pointed out: “Elections have become a fairly widely accepted part of Afghan political life, partially simply because it is the system that the country currently has and there is no consensus on what would work better.” Another expert gave a slightly more positive interpretation: “Other research has also demonstrated that whatever the flaws of electoral practice, Afghans do value being able to participate in national political decisions, and also consider Afghanistan’s entry into the club of democracies worldwide a point of pride.”
“Elections have become a fairly widely accepted part of Afghan political life, partially simply because it is the system that the country currently has and there is no consensus on what would work better.” An international expert
Importantly, there is nothing alien about the idea of elections to Afghan culture. “In all the studies we have done”, notes a third expert, “we have found an overwhelming support for elections as an idea (it fits into both Islamic concepts of the world and into the more cultural egalitarianism - e.g. all men are inherently equal - that dominates aspects of Afghan society). Of course, while Afghans support the idea of elections, this does not mean that they support how they have been implemented or have much faith in them being implemented fairly in the future.”
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 1.2 Afghans intend to participate in the upcoming elections‌
Intention to vote in 2014 by region 0.0% 10.3%
1.3% 13.9%
2.4%
0.0%
.4%
2.3%
.9%
19.2%
22.3%
23.0%
21.9%
23.7%
2.3%
1.3% 22.2%
33.8%
89.7%
84.7%
78.5%
77.7%
76.7%
75.8%
76.5%
75.3% 63.8%
Central Highland
East
North East
Intend to vote
South West
North West
Don't intend to vote
West
South East Central/ Kabul
Total
Don't know / refuse to answer
Overall more than three quarters of the surveyed Afghans declare they intend to vote in the upcoming elections; this is markedly higher than the voter turnout in the past elections. In all regions except the Central Region / Kabul, between 75 and 90% of respondents expressed their intention to vote. Below, we will examine the surprising case of Kabul, which drags down the national average, in section 1.4. We will first examine, however, the difference between the support for the idea of the elections with the intention to vote:
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
97% 100%
89% 90%
90%
92%
91%
86%
96%
90%
89%
85%
78%
78%
80%
75%
77%
76%
70%
64%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Central Highland
East
South West
North East
I Intend to vote
South East
North West
West
Central/ Kabul
I support the idea of elections
The support for the idea of elections does not necessarily translate into an intention to vote – or vice-versa: of the relatively small number of survey respondents who say they do not support the idea of elections, a surprising 40% declare their intention to vote nonetheless.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Intention to vote in the upcoming elections Will not vote 2%
Will vote 1%
41%
DK/NA. 3%
46% 79%
57%
51%
19% Do not support elections
Support elections
Don't know / No answer
This can be taken to mean that a large proportion of the respondents who oppose electoral politics are prepared to assert their opinions democratically through the ballot box. Interestingly, the 2.8% of the population who said they don’t know (or refused to answer) the question whether they support the idea of elections, are as likely to vote in the upcoming elections as the group who opposes the idea of elections.
1.3 ‌ if they have been registered as voters. We will now return to the vast majority (92%) of survey respondents who do support the idea of elections. Almost 20% of them say they do not intend to vote in 2014. FEFA asked all the survey respondents who declared their intention not to vote (altogether 22% of the respondents) why they
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections would not vote. The question was an open one and respondents could give up to three answers (see chart below).
Why I don't intend to vote in 2014 (multiple responses, only scores above 2%) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
77%
26% 25% 24% 23%
13% 11%
9%
6%
6%
6%
FEFA asked all the survey respondents who declared their intention not to vote (altogether 22% of the respondents) why they would not vote. 5%
5%
2%
77% of the respondents to this question declared they have no voter’s card. This means that at least 17% of all the survey respondents are not registered to vote 1; FEFA found that in total, 14 % of the survey respondents support the idea of elections but are not registered to vote (the other 3% are not registered but also do not support the idea of elections). This could point to a major failure
1
Despite there being, reportedly, 20 million voter cards in circulation for a population of 12 million eligible voters: see Emma Graham-Harrison: “Afghanistan Election Guide: Everything You Need to Know”; theguardian.com, 3 Feb 2014 (link)
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections in the voter registration drive1,2 (more about the performance of electoral institutions in section 3.1) - assuming that those who support the idea of elections would in fact attempt to register. Other reasons given for intending not to vote include lack of interest in the elections, suspicions of fraud, insecurity, logistical difficulties, and disagreement with candidates and their policies – all could be reasons not to bother with registration. We’ll examine the surprising low incidence of “insecurity” or “fear of the Taliban” in section 1.5 below. Another interesting result is that only 2% of those who stated they will not vote in 2014 gave as one of the reasons “Elections are haram” (0.5% or 21 persons from the total number of 4040 surveyed).These persons typically shared the following demographic characteristics: uneducated, woman, married, dependent, Pashto, from Takhar, Kandahar, Paktika or Kabul.
An interesting result is that only 2% of those who stated they will not vote in 2014 gave as one of the reasons ‘Elections are haram’ – 0.5% of the total surveyed population, or only 21 people of the 4040 surveyed. The typical profile of this negligible group who thinks Islam is haram is: uneducated, woman, married, dependent, Pashto, from Takhar, Kandahar, Paktika or Kabul.
1.4 Satisfaction with elections is decreasing. The lack of enthusiasm to participate in the upcoming elections, relative to the support of the idea of democracy, can be explained by disillusionment with past elections and suspicions that the coming elections will be riddled by fraud. FEFA asked “Do you think that recent elections in Afghanistan have been free and fair?”3 Followed by the questions “Do you think the presidential elections of 2014 will be free and fair?” and “Do you think the provincial council elections of 2014 will be free and fair?” When asked to assess past elections, the survey respondents are still quite positive:
There is a brisk trade in voter registration cards, which reportedly sell for about 5$ each. See Hamid Shalizi: “Votes Sell for about 5$ in Afghanistan as Presidential Race Begins”; reuters.com, 14 Oct 2013 (link) 2 See for example several reports by FEFA on the voter registration process of past elections (link) 3 Before being asked this series of questions, the surveyors read out the following explanation to survey respondents: “Let me explain what we mean by free and fair elections: ‘Free elections’ are elections where citizens have the opportunity to vote as they wish. ‘Fair elections’ are elections where election laws are followed, where candidates have an equal opportunity to run for office and access the public and where votes are counted correctly.” On this point, one international expert points out: “Afghans as a whole have never experienced a free and fair election, at least from my point of view, so it is difficult for many to understand, in practice, what that means.” 1
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Do you think recent elections in Afghanistan were free and fair? Yes
19%
12%
No
Don't know / refuse to answer
7%
7% 18%
18% 30%
27%
23%
20% 22%
46%
36%
67%
47%
Central Highland
57%
40%
29%
34%
41%
39%
38%
38%
36%
West
North East
Central/ Kabul
South East
East
60%
45%
Total
44%
North West
South West
Overall, more Afghans think the recent elections were free and fair than not. A relatively large percentage of respondents prefers not to answer this question, indicating they find it hard to pass judgment. However, when asked whether they think the upcoming presidential and provincial council elections of 2014 will be free and fair, the assessment is much more negative, as demonstrated in graphs below: Page 28
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Do you think the presidential elections of 2014 will be free and fair? No
32%
17%
11%
17%
24%
32% 19%
25% 66%
65%
43%
Total
Yes
East
South West
49%
South East
DK / RA
32%
28%
39%
39%
19%
24%
34%
42%
37%
34%
33%
West
North West
North East
Central/ Kabul
46%
21%
48%
24% Central Highland
Do you think the provincial council elections of 2014 will be free and fair? No
30%
16%
8%
20%
28%
Total
31% 20%
28% 42%
Yes
64%
East
64%
South West
49%
South East
DK / RA
38%
35%
19%
28%
43%
37%
Central/ Kabul
West
29%
24%
42%
54%
35%
29%
22%
North East
North West
Central Highland
47% 18%
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections In the assessment of the upcoming elections, the negative replies far outweigh the positive ones, with an even higher percentage of respondents preferring to reserve judgment. In what has come to be called ‘the Pashtun Belt’ (East, Southeast, Southwest Afghanistan and part of the Central Region) respondents are particularly pessimistic about the free and fair character of the upcoming elections. The reasons for this increasingly negative perception of the free and fair character of elections has been analyzed abundantly in the literature1 and this report will touch on it in section 2. For the time being, we will draw one possible conclusion from this data: the discrepancy between the overwhelming support of the principle of elections and the lesser enthusiasm to actually participate in the upcoming elections may largely be explained by the perception that the 2014 elections will not be free and fair; this factor might be a better explanation of why at least 14% of the survey respondents who support the idea of elections did not bother to get registered, rather than eventual shortcomings of the voter registration process. As one international expert points out, the downward trend may soon reach its point of inflexion and turn up again: “Elections, as one of the steps in a democratic process, also take a couple of rounds until they can be called free and fair. There are prospects for the 2019 elections that there will be a new generation of politicians not having grown up as 'conflict elites' who will rather base their candidacies on education.” The case of the Central Region (Kabul and surrounding provinces) is remarkable. Why are the people from this region so disinclined to vote? An analysis of the reasons given shows a higher incidence of dissatisfaction with the candidates, and expectations of fraud, compared with the rest of the country.
1
See for example items # 1, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 12 on the ‘literature used’ list, annex A.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Reasons not to vote in Central/ Kabul 4%
Not registered to vote
%5
Lack of interest %11 %31
Problems with candidates Expect fraud
%13
Difficulties with polling stations
Insecurity %15
Other / DK / NA
%22
An analysis of the reasons from Central/Kabul region shows a higher incidence of dissatisfaction with the candidates, and expectations of fraud, than in the rest of the country
Reasons not to vote in remaining seven regions Not registered to vote 7%
5%
Lake of interest 32%
9%
Insecurity Problems with candidates
9%
Expected fraud 18%
Difficulties with polling stations 20%
Other / DK /RA
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Indeed, as participants in the Kabul Focus Group pointed out, “the conduct of the previous elections negatively impacted the level of interest of voters in Kabul”. The focus group participants in Kabul admit that they themselves are not inclined to vote, unlike the participants of focus groups in the rest of the provinces, where a negative assessment of previous elections and of the preparations for the upcoming ones is usually accompanied by the declaration that they will vote nonetheless, and that everybody who is not happy with the current electoral process must express this through the ballot box.
“The conduct of the previous elections negatively impacted the level of interest of voters in Kabul”. Focus Group-Kabul
From the focus group discussions and the survey results, it seems the citizens of Kabul and the surrounding provinces, being closer to the center of power, are more critical of the electoral process, and therefore more inclined not to vote. If this trend is not reversed, it appears likely that disillusionment with electoral politics will spread from the center to the provinces. Faced with the increasing lack of confidence in the free and fair character of subsequent elections, one international expert regretted: “For me this reflects a slow – and very unfortunate - erosion of the trust in democratic instruments, methods and principles” while another surmised “these responses are evidence that many think the next Afghan president is going to be chosen primarily through negotiations among the political elite.” Still another thought “Another explanation might be a refusal to believe that the president will relinquish control … the previous elections (2009/10) demonstrated that the executive has the capacity for such manipulation.”
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 1.5 Voters are less deterred by insecurity… Now let us return to the reasons Afghans give for their intention not to participate in the 2014 elections
Reasons not to vote in Afghanistan
8%
I'm not registered / I don't have a voter's card Lake of intereset in elections
5% 32%
10%
insecurity & fear of the Taliban Problems with candidates
11%
I think the elections will be fraudulent Difficulties with polling stations 14%
20% Other / DK /RA
We have aggregated some of the data presented in section 1.3 into categories to allow for a clearer analysis. Of the total amount of reasons given (multiple responses were allowed) the majority, as pointed out earlier, concerned the lack of voter registration. The second most common theme is the lack of interest in the elections, which is referred to in the previous paragraph. The third most cited reason is insecurity. Given the preponderance given to insecurity in other polls related to Afghan elections and political attitudes, we elaborate on this finding here.
One possible reason why this relatively low emphasis on security is not reflected in other opinion polls, is probably because FEFA did not ask the question in terms of security (e.g. ‘do you think security is good enough for you to participate in the elections’ – to which a larger percentage of respondents might have answered ‘no’).
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 14% of the survey respondents who declared they would not vote named, as one of the reasons, insecurity or fear of the Taliban (or both). This seems to mean that only 6% of the survey respondents consider insecurity as a reason not to participate in the elections1. This result is qualified by other results in the FEFA survey. For example, when asked to identify barriers to electoral participation, participants in the concept mapping exercise quoted insecurity as one of the main ones (see annex C for full results). Indeed, the single most important barrier, on which participants felt little progress has been made to overcome it, is “polling stations will close due to security threats”. Past elections have shown that this is a real problem. Among the most important other barriers identified by participants in the concept mapping exercise, several others concern security:
Afghan national security forces collaborate with armed opposition groups to disrupt elections2, Insurgent groups threaten voters and foment insecurity, Lack of state authority in many areas, and Lack of participation of female voters due to security threats.
Focus group participants confirmed that insecurity mainly discourages women voters. But among women, cultural factors were often named in the same phrase with insecurity as a factor discouraging women from exercising their right to vote. (More on barriers to women participation in section 3.5)
1
One possible reason why this relatively low emphasis on security is not reflected in other opinion polls, is probably because FEFA did not ask the question in terms of security (e.g. ‘do you think security is good enough for you to participate in the elections’ – to which a larger percentage of respondents might have answered ‘no’). 2 With this statement, participants mean they expect the sitting president to use the national security forces, in those places where it is expected insecurity will disrupt polling, to perpetrate electoral fraud.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Will not vote because of fear of...
59% 55%
31%
29%
28%
25%
24%
16% 7%
South West South East
West
9%
East Insecurity
11%
7%
North East North West Taliban
12% 0%
0% 0%
Central/ Kabul
Central Highland
A regional analysis of survey respondents who mention insecurity and fear of Taliban as one of the reasons they will not vote in the upcoming elections, gives a less surprising result. In Southwest Afghanistan more than 50% of respondents mentioned both insecurity and fear of the Taliban. In Kandahar and Helmand focus group discussions, insecurity was mentioned as a major barrier to participation. The ‘fear of Taliban’ factor reads like quite a faithful indicator of current Taliban influence throughout the provinces. As for ‘insecurity’ more generally, it is particularly high (and dissociated from the Taliban) in the West and East of the country. As one international expert points out, lamenting that insecurity is often wrongly conflated with threats by insurgents by external observers, “While the Taliban have threatened disrupting elections, they have only done this on a smaller scale and while stories certainly circulate in terms of actual numbers, I don't think many have experienced direct intimidation in relationship with voting.”
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections We might surmise that, given voting patterns during previous elections and the findings of other surveys, insecurity is in fact a major barrier to electoral participation. The reason why only 6% of all survey respondents mention insecurity as a reason not to vote may be that they are aware insecurity is wielded as a political instrument – by the Taliban and by the government. It is revealing that participants in the concept mapping exercise pointed out that insecurity creates a vacuum, in which government security forces can easily commit electoral fraud. This could be why, when asked whether they will themselves be deterred by insecurity, respondents answer by the negative; but when asked whether it will have a general impact on the electoral process (i.e. the participation of other people) they answer by the positive. One international expert points out that “In the past there has been a fairly direct correlation between high levels of insecurity and low levels of participation – leading to extreme results in the most insecure areas: either very low numbers of votes casts due to the near absence of voters or extremely high numbers as a result of the hijacking of the electoral materials by polling officials or local strongmen. There is no reason to believe that will be different now”.
“In the past there has been a fairly direct correlation between high levels of insecurity and low levels of participation – leading to extreme results in the most insecure areas: either very low numbers of votes casts due to the near absence of voters or extremely high numbers as a result of the hijacking of the electoral materials by polling officials or local strongmen. There is no reason to believe that will be different now”. International Expert
We therefore see that insecurity, and in particular fear of the Taliban, is a barrier to electoral participation; but compared to other reasons (sorted by region and on the same scale as the chart below) it is not a very important one.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
I will not vote in 2014 because... 95%
93%
89%
83%
82% 70% 68%
64% 56%
62%
31%
34% 26%
19% 16%
South West South East
58% 44%
44%
26%
84%
80%
West not registered
East
25%
North East North West
lack of interest
22%
20%
Central/ Kabul
Central Highland
expected fraud
1.6 … than by electoral fraud and government interference. At the end of the concept mapping exercise (see Annex C), a list was made of those barriers to electoral participation which participants found most important, and where the lack of progress in overcoming them was slowest (the so-called policy ‘go-zone’). Below, these barriers are sorted from least to the most important, without repeating the insecurity-related arguments:
Local commanders, warlords and candidates trade voting cards Candidates obtain votes through force or bribery, Voters lack trust in elections because of fraud, and failure of the government and IEC to fulfill the ideals and goals of elections in previous election cycles Existence of warlord figures on the list of candidates
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Afghanistan is dependent on foreign countries for funding, planning and/or monitoring of elections The incumbent Afghan President endorses a specific candidate Voters in remote areas have little awareness of, and access to, information about elections Some individuals vote on behalf of other individuals Ballots are tampered with at polling stations Lack of accurate statistics of the population of Afghanistan Ballots boxes are tampered with while being transported from polling stations to Kabul Voters obtain and use multiple voting cards Insertion of fake ballots into voting boxes by voting station attendants in favor of a particular candidate, and IEC tampers with ballots at central level in Kabul
It is clear that the main concern of the participants in the Concept Mapping exercises held throughout the country (with 360 participants drawn from diverse sectors of society) is fraud. Fraud during the vote-counting process, ballot-box stuffing, multiple voting by individuals, the buying and selling of votes and intimidation tactics by strongmen on Election Day are all named among the most important barriers to electoral participation. Interestingly, centralized fraud is considered a graver menace than local fraud. Government interference, the presence of candidates who should have been rejected by the IECC on legal and ethical grounds, dependence on foreign countries, lack of electoral awareness among the population and the lack of reliable population statistics were also mentioned as important barriers. Maybe most revealing is the barrier that points to the fact that due to dissatisfaction with previous elections, Afghans have lost confidence in the process. To conclude this first section of the findings, it appears Afghans strongly support the idea of elections and intend to vote, but that they are losing confidence in the electoral process, and have little trust that the upcoming elections will be free and fair. The main barrier to electoral participation may not be insecurity, though it remains an important one - especially in some areas of the country
Afghans strongly support the idea of elections and intend to vote, but that they are losing confidence in the electoral process, and have little trust that the upcoming elections will be free and fair.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections - but the expected level of fraud, which according to participants and experts has been high in the past round of elections. As a result a growing number of people are turning away from the electoral process, although they do support the principle of elections. An international expert phrased it thus: “Although Afghan voters have become more conscious of the power of their vote and would like to use it effectively, the system corrupts this electoral consciousness. It is not only the social system – the prevalence of patronage, or ‘buying votes’ – but also the shortcomings of the electoral institutions, which do not prevent some ineligible people (like war criminals) of becoming candidates, and allow for fraud at many levels, from the voter registration process through the campaigns and until the casting and counting of votes - thus favoring candidates with strong political connections. As this has been observed in the past elections and seems to be happening again, voters are losing their motivation”.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
2. Afghans want their leaders to focus on peace, justice and education “The lessons learned from the previous elections encourages us to be serious when voting because we already saw the impact of our votes” (Focus Group Balkh, men)
2.1 Afghan voters want to choose for themselves…
How will you choose who to vote for?
I will vote for the person suggested to me Male
6%
I will make my own choice based on the candidates' qualities and programs 88%
Female
12%
81%
I don't know / refuse or prefer not to answer
7%
5%
Both Afghan men and women, when asked how they will choose for whom to vote, overwhelmingly affirm that they will make their choice based on the candidates’ personal qualities and their programs. Only 6% of men and 12% of women admit they will vote for the person suggested to them. Page 40
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 100% 90%
80%
8% 6%
5% 8%
4% 4%
14%
8% 8%
79%
84%
86%
88%
92%
7%
6% 9%
70% 60% 50% 40%
85%
30%
20% 10% 0% Not Unemployed Other Private Sector Civil Servant employed / searching (retired, because for work religious etc) dependent
The higher-educated people with a better employment status (civil servant or private sector) are more prone to choose the candidate for themselves than the dependents, the unemployed and the lesser-educated.
Total
I don't know/Refuse/prefer not to answer I will vote for the person suggested to me I will make my own choice based on the candidates qualities and program
The reply to the question “How will you choose who to vote for?� varies with the employment status and level of education of the respondent: the higher-educated people with a better employment status (civil servant or private sector) are more prone to choose the candidate for themselves than dependents, the unemployed and the lesser-educated. The regional variation in responses to this question is also unsurprising: in the more traditional regions (Southwest and Northeast), the population is slightly more inclined to vote for the person suggested to them. In the case of the Central region, the scant 2% of Kabuli voters who claim they will follow the advice of others contrast with results in neighboring provinces, such as Maidan Wardak and Parwan, where about 20% of the voters say they will not choose for themselves.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
How will you choose who to vote for? 100%
3%
7%
22%
15%
11% 7%
75%
78%
82%
4% 8%
7% 4%
6% 4%
4% 5%
2% 7%
6% 9%
87%
89%
90%
90%
91%
85%
80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
I don't know/Refuse/prefer not to answer I will vote for the person suggested to me I will make my own choice based on the candidates qualities and program
With 85% of all survey respondents saying they will choose the candidate for themselves, it is tempting to conclude that the Afghan voter is emancipated. This conclusion, however, is contradicted by past experience. Focus groups participants in several provinces stressed that although voters should decide who to cast their ballot for on the basis of an analysis of candidates’ policies and track record, until now the reverse has happened during elections, with massive vote-buying, especially in rural areas. As one woman in Balkh pointed out, “this system [of patronage] can benefit the voter in the short term, but in the long term it harms the country.�
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections However, as one international expert points out, “a strong patronage system does not simply mean that people vote as they are told, along predetermined lines, but rather that most people are being courted by multiple (potential) patrons”. She further states “I think the findings are probably correct: a large proportion of the voters will try to make up their own mind on how to vote. This however does not mean that the decision is not influenced by patronage relations, to the contrary. The way I see it, most voters are being pulled in different directions by competing loyalties and leaders. It is then up to them to decide which one can lay the strongest claim, carries the most benefits or poses the least risks.” Indeed, a degree of electoral emancipation can coexist with the patronage system – as even in a society strongly based on patronage and top-down distribution of benefits, patrons still partially rely on the consent of their subjects for their legitimacy. When the relatively small group who admits to following the advice of another is asked “whose advice will you follow?” most respondents (independently of ethnicity, region, level of education or income) state that they will follow the advice of family and friends:
Whose advice will you listen to? %20 I will follow the advice of my family or friends
%11 %69
I will follow the advice of a political leader
69% of respondents who admits following the advice of another is asked “whose advice will you follow?” most respondents (independently of ethnicity, region, level of education or income) state that they will follow the advice of family and friends.
I will follow the advice of a religious leader
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Among men the tendency to follow the advice of a political or religious leader is greater (respectively 21% and 34%) while women massively (81%) prefer to follow the advice of family and friends.
Whose advice will you listen to? 81%
43% 34%
21% 11%
6%
I will follow the advice of a political leader
I will follow the advice of a religious leader Male
I will follow the advice of my family or friends
Female
Afghans generally object to how patronage influences voting patterns. As one member of the Balkh focus group (men) puts it, “the dominance, of a father in a family or an ethnic leader, over the voters’ decision is an impediment for the electoral process”. It will likely take several electoral cycles, at best, to decrease the grip of patronage on elections. One international expert reflects: “In the current system of warlordism and patronage, it makes rational sense to continue to support these figures since they control so much of the political and economic capital in the country still. At the same time, most Afghans resent this system, leading them to want a more transparent system, but as long as the system is opaque, for the most part on an individual level it makes the most sense to keep working within it.”
“The dominance, of a father in a family or an ethnic leader, over the voters’ decision is an impediment for the electoral process”. Focus Group - Balkh
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 2.2 ‌ electoral concerns are peace, education and the economy‌ FEFA asked survey respondents what the top three issues were, which they would like to see addressed in the 2014 elections. Peace, or the end to conflict and insecurity, is the top issue throughout the country; second and third are usually education and the economy, although justice also scores high. Foreign relations and agricultural reform score lowest, generally.
What are the top three issues of importance for which you would like presidential candidates to focus on in the 2014 elections? (three replies permitted) Peace
73%
Education
41%
The Economy
39%
Justice
34%
Infrastructure
22%
Healthcare
18%
The Political System
17%
Moral & Spiritual Values
16%
Agricultural Reform
10%
Foreign Relations
9%
Other / No Answer
4%
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Top 3 Issues of the Presidential Elections 4%
Peace
3% 1%
Education The Economy
6%
26%
6%
Justice Infrastructure
6%
Healthcare
8%
The Political System
14% 12%
Moral & Spiritual Values Agricultural Reform
14%
Foreign Relations
Peace
Education
The Economy
Justice
Infrastructure
Healthcare
The Political System
Moral / Spiritual Values
Agricultural Reform
Foreign Relations
Other / No Answer
Central/Kabul
78%
41%
51%
39%
16%
12%
20%
16%
7%
8%
East
81%
48%
34%
26%
19%
18%
25%
19%
4%
15%
Southeast
65%
41%
35%
26%
21%
23%
22%
30%
14%
18%
Southwest
69%
49%
28%
28%
21%
29%
19%
16%
10%
19%
West
73%
45%
37%
36%
22%
25%
13%
19%
10%
8%
Northwest
76%
43%
36%
43%
25%
18%
14%
16%
13%
5%
Northeast
84%
40%
46%
35%
24%
15%
14%
17%
14%
4%
Central Highlands
70%
33%
47%
43%
36%
18%
12%
4%
14%
3%
Top 3 Issues of the Presidential Elections 2014
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Regional variations are not major, but interesting nonetheless:
In Kabul and the Northeast the economy is the second most important theme; In the Central Highlands justice is a more important theme than education: In the Northwest region justice is seen as more important than the economy; In Southeast Afghanistan moral/spiritual values are seen as more important than justice In Southwest Afghanistan healthcare makes a surprising appearance among the most important themes.
The private sector and the jobless finding the economy more important, while dependents put a bit more emphasis on healthcare.
16.3%
16.5%
29.5%
3.4%
Peace
27.0%
24.7%
25.0%
25.4%
23.4%
Education
14.7%
14.3%
14.7%
14.4%
12.4%
The Economy
13.5%
14.3%
13.1%
14.5%
11.8%
Justice
11.7%
12.6%
11.8%
12.0%
14.0%
Infrastructure
7.3%
7.4%
7.4%
8.3%
10.8%
Healthcare
7.9%
6.8%
5.2%
5.3%
4.8%
The Political System
5.0%
6.5%
8.3%
5.5%
3.8%
Other (retired, religious etc.)
34.3%
Private Sector
Unemployed / searching for work
Total survey population in this category
Civil Servant
Calculation of the main Issues of the presidential elections according to the employment status of the respondent
Not employed because dependent
There is a predictable, but overall slight influence of the employment status of respondents on the issues they find most important in the upcoming elections – with, for example, the private sector and the jobless finding the economy more important, while dependents placing slightly more emphasis on healthcare.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Moral & Spiritual Values
5.4%
6.5%
6.6%
5.0%
8.6%
Agricultural Reform
3.1%
3.7%
3.0%
4.4%
4.8%
Foreign Relations
2.4%
2.3%
4.6%
3.8%
3.5%
Other / No Answer
1.7%
.8%
.1%
1.2%
1.6%
2.3… and Afghans prefer ethical candidates to “efficient” ones After the question “How will you choose who to vote for?” FEFA asked the respondents which qualities they look for in candidates, allowing each respondent to give three open replies. Education and experience came out as the most important quality, with personal ethics coming in a close second place, and a concern for justice not far behind.
I will vote for a candidate... ...with education and experience
64%
...who is a good Muslim/ honest person
60%
... who will seek justice and an end to impunity
48%
... who can rise above ethnic issues
19%
... who can bring peace and security
17%
... with a kind heart for the poor and weak
15%
... who has defended the country from her enemies
14%
... with good plans or policies
13%
... who improves human or women's rights
11%
... who will strengthen democratic participation
11%
... with a vision and strong leadership
10%
... with influence and power
4%
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections One reply does of course not negate the other; for example a candidate with education and experience may therefore have good plans and policies, vision and strong leadership. Similarly, a person who seeks justice and an end to impunity may well show empathy towards the poor and weak in society. However, it is interesting to see where respondents lay the emphasis. Compare for example the most important issue in the presidential elections - peace, mentioned by 68% of the respondents, with the relatively low score achieved by those candidates who promise to “bring peace and security.” The reason for this could be, according to these results that Afghans think that peace in their country will rather be brought about by education, personal ethics and justice, than by a promise to bring peace and security. One international expert notes that “The importance of seeking justice over proactive democratic attitudes again suggests that legitimacy is derived from just conduct; it also suggests that for Afghans the objective of democracy is to ensure justice, or that “proactive democratic attitudes” might be interpreted as promoting a western agenda, and that agenda is not a priority to Afghans if it is not articulated within a logic of seeking justice and exercising power justly.”
It is interesting to see where respondents lay the emphasis. Compare for example the most important issue in the presidential elections: peace, mentioned by 68% of the respondents, with the relatively low score achieved by those candidates who promise to ‘bring peace and security’.
Some of the terms are deliberately vague, such as “somebody who is a good Muslim”, which can mean different things to different people. What these results do point out clearly is that the personal qualities of a candidate are more important than his/her program (strengthening democratic participation, defending human rights, having good plans and policies or a vision). And most interestingly, the fact that a candidate already wields considerable power is not an appreciated quality at all, being mentioned by only 4% of the respondents and coming in last. All the international experts agreed that, in their experience, Afghans have no particular desire to be ruled by strongmen – an assumption one hears too often in the West. But in current conditions the Afghan voter may not have much choice. “On whether most Afghans wish to be governed by strongmen, it seems obvious to me that this is not the case. In practice many people find themselves having to support people whom they actually wish to see deposed from power. Their actions thus do not necessarily reflect what they want.”
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
3. Organization of Elections “The problems that exist are with the process, not with the voters” (Focus Group Nangarhar, men)
3.1 Afghans have mixed feelings about the electoral institutions…
Knowledge of electoral institutions 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Men
Women
Men
IEC
Women IECC
Right
Wrong
DK/NA
FEFA asked survey respondents; who do you think is primarily responsible for organizing the Afghan elections? And who do you think handles the grievances during the elections, such as accusations of voter registration fraud, ballot box fraud and vote counting fraud? The questions were open-ended, and only one response could be given. The purpose of these questions was to test respondents’ understanding of the IEC and IECC. Page 50
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections It appears most Afghans do not know which institutions are responsible for the organization of the elections (the Independent Electoral Commission) and for handling the complaints (the Independent Electoral Complaints Commission). Women are generally much less aware of this than men. Unsurprisingly, the rate of familiarity with these organizations is higher among civil servants (61% and 69% respectively) than among other professional classes. Indeed, Afghan experts and participants in the provincial focus groups both point out the need for more civic education about the elections. However the degree of knowledge of electoral institutions among the Afghan population may be in a range comparable to that in countries with more democratic experience. The interesting result here is provided by the mistakes: 30% of the surveyed believe the State or the President are responsible for organizing the elections. In the case of electoral complaints, many respondents believe the IEC is responsible for handling them, or the State; those who believe this necessarily assume that there is no independent handling of complaints.
Which institution is responsible for organizing the elections?
Which institution handles electoral complaints?
Other, 3.7% IECC, 0.4% Parliament, 1.4% Government, 3.2% People, 4.4%
I don't know, 18.0%
State, 16.6% President, 13.1%
IEC, 39.6%
Other 7%
I don't know 22%
President 3% National Observers 4%
IECC 45%
IEC 10%
State 9%
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections This confusion may be the result of the interference of the Presidency in the work of both commissions. This issue draws many comments from both Afghan experts and focus group participants. An example of statements extracted from both groups is given below: The President interferes in the appointment of the commissions and their members The independence of the electoral commissions must be guaranteed Ensure the impartiality of election commissions The government imposes its opinion on the Commission Influential people should not be appointed as commissioners in commissions IEC is under the influence of the powerful people The Independent Electoral Commission is independent in name only Ministers and Members of Parliament put pressure on both commissions
Despite the pressure from the Presidency and other power-players on the electoral commissions, almost all Afghan experts, as well as focus group participants, agree that they are valuable, necessary instruments to ensure better elections. Moreover, during the provincial exercise to identify and sort barriers to electoral participation, the general impression was that a lot of progress has been made to overcome the shortcomings of the IEC. This may explain relatively high levels of trust in both commissions. When asked “How high is your confidence in the Independent Election Commission / the Independent Electoral Complaints Commission as an institution?� participants expressed reasonable levels of confidence, with the IEC scoring a bit higher than the IECC. FEFA checked whether those who could correctly identify the role of both commissions, had higher or lower levels of confidence; but that correlation is feeble. Similarly, it is not the case that education or professional status have a major influence on levels of trust.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Confidence in electoral commissions 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
0% Low
Moderate
High IEC
DK/NA
IECC
A major difference can be found, however, among the regions: the population in and around the capital, the East and the South have rather low levels of confidence, while in the North and West of the country respondents are more confident. The surveyed population in the Central Highlands, in particular, expresses a high level of confidence in the electoral institutions. In the focus groups critique was severe towards the functioning of the regional/provincial chapters of the electoral commissions, notably towards their recruitment policies. Participants in the Kunar Focus Group mentioned: “The electoral system in Afghanistan is not transparent. The work of the IEC and the IECC is negative and symbolic, as they have failed to deliver concrete results. We are not satisfied with the electoral process because of this lack of transparency and the fraud committed in the previous elections. For example, the staff of the IEC is not recruited transparently or based on merit; even the previous provincial head of the IEC committed fraud. In fact, winners are predetermined”.
“The electoral system in Afghanistan is not transparent. The work of the IEC and the IECC is negative and symbolic, as they have failed to deliver concrete results. We are not satisfied with the electoral process because of this lack of transparency and the fraud committed in the previous elections. For example, the staff of the IEC is not recruited transparently or based on merit; even the previous provincial head of the IEC committed fraud. In fact, winners are predetermined”. Focus Group - Kunar
This was echoed in Nangarhar: “if committed and clean people are recruited, this will help to increase the transparency of upcoming election”; and Balkh “The IEC is a legitimate and important institution. But this
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections does not mean that we are satisfied with their activities; in particular, the IEC staff was not recruited transparently. Some of them were engaged in fraud during the previous elections, and this will undermine the upcoming elections.” A participant in the Kabul Focus Group resumed: “the IEC does not seem to be able to perform its tasks; therefore other actors are intervening in their affairs and taking decisions on its behalf”
Confidence in electoral commissions Low
High
40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
When confronted with the data on levels of popular confidence (or lack of confidence) in the electoral institutions, one consulted international expert reflected: “The overwhelming focus in 2009 and 2010 on fraud has unfortunately obscured the fact that, political influence aside, these institutions have in fact gained a great deal of competence and capacity”. Another expert points out: “I don't think the IEC or IECC will do much to credit or discredit these elections in the eyes of most voters (though they may do this in the eyes of international observers). What will be much more central to crediting/discrediting elections is the extent to which voters believe the IEC and IECC
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections are being manipulated by Karzai and other Afghan political leaders. If they do not stand strong and seem independent, no matter how technically improved the actually counting is, the elections will be undermined.” The overall impression one gets of the two electoral commissions is that they have gained a great deal in competency, and are equipped to do their jobs rather well, but that they cannot withstand political pressure, expressed notably through recruitment practices – and, one may add, presidential tinkering with the composition of their central committees. This meddling compromised their functioning in the previous elections and it seems to happen again in the upcoming elections, thus compromising the results of the electoral process. Related to this topic, FEFA posed questions on the voting system, political parties and campaigning to both Afghan experts and participants in the focus groups. In brief, these are the results:
3.2 Experts are not satisfied with the Single Non-Transferable Vote system Almost all Afghan experts denounce the SNTV – “first past the post” – system that has been replaced in most democratic countries by more sophisticated systems that favor the development of political parties and electoral alliances. The adoption of the SNTV system in Afghanistan’s electoral law of 2004 led to heated discussions; now, the only favorable thing an Afghan expert finds to say about the SNTV system is that the electoral authorities have experience with it, and, for another expert, that the proliferation of parties that it has fostered is a good thing. All other experts agree that there are too many parties, that the political landscape is too fragmented as a result; however opinions whether it should be replaced by a purely proportional system or a mixed system are neatly divided. While the proportional system is seen as leading to more efficient, representative and accountable nationwide political parties (or alliances), a mixed system is advocated just as often, to also reflect local concerns.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 3.3 Political Parties could play a positive role, but they don’t In the focus groups political parties were discussed at length. In general one can say, after analyzing the focus group discussions, that the role of political parties is valued and considered important for democratic development by the participants. The potential for political parties to play a positive role in the political development of the country is clearly recognized in more than half of the focus groups. Political parties could help, for example, in restructuring state-society relations, in structuring the work of legislative bodies, in expressing the national interest in its different hues while opening avenues for cooperation among groups competing for power.
“The role of political parties is valued and considered important for democratic development. The potential for political parties to play a positive role in the political development of the country is clearly recognized in more than half of the focus groups.” Focus Group Participant
However, when assessing the current operation of political parties, participants of the focus groups see them as a negative influence on the socio-political landscape. Statements made during focus groups included:
Parties are based on ethnicity and undermine national unity. They are the product of civil war and tend to increase tensions among groups. As a result Afghans have bad memories of parties, making it difficult to deploy them. There are far too many political parties nowadays. They do not operate according to their own charters and are not standardized, making comparison between parties difficult. They usually lack political and social programs. They define democracy based on their own interest. The existence of political parties has increased corruption in the parliament, the government and in the electoral process, especially as they tend to buy votes in advance of the election.
Therefore, according to the provincial focus groups, it seems unlikely political parties will provide a positive contribution to the 2014 election. Sources
References
9
24
Statements made by Focus Groups Excessive number of parties
9
16
Parties are tribal, not national
3
11
The existing political parties are not good for this country
2
8
Political parties turn people's minds against elections
Focus group participants appreciate the positive potential of political parties, but consider the existing ones to have a negative influence on Afghan politics. Among Afghan experts, whose opinions were very similar to those expressed in the focus groups, several mentioned the political parties law as a major impediment to the establishment of a more serious landscape of political parties.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 1
4
The political parties, like the government, do not support a transparent process
2
4
Lack of social and political programs
In short: focus group participants appreciate the positive potential of political parties, but consider the existing ones to have a negative influence on Afghan politics. Among Afghan experts, whose opinions were very similar to those expressed in the focus groups, several mentioned the political parties law as a major impediment to the establishment of a more serious landscape of political parties.
3.4 There are many problems with the candidates’ campaigns “The election campaign is based on ethnic competition and this facilitates corruption” (Focus Group Faryab, men). The choice between candidates in previous elections could not satisfy everybody: “people who committed crimes and were accused of human right abuses were allowed in the previous elections to come nominate themselves” was one such statement recorded during the focus group in Mazar-i Sharif. But the discussion about the candidates’ campaigns was mostly held among Afghan experts. They identified the following issues:
Campaign funding: The existing regulations are deemed insufficient; for most candidates it is difficult to access sufficient funding, leading to imbalances favoring the few candidates who can mobilize resources through extra-democratic channels. A strictly observed limit on campaign spending, accompanied by measures of public support for destitute candidates, is suggested by several Afghan experts Unequal access to the media and public visibility (through posters etc.). This is again an area awaiting better regulation by the state. Government influence on the campaign is another matter; several experts point out that the Government uses its officials throughout the country to influence the campaign in favor of the candidates it supports Specific barriers for women.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 3.5 Women are discouraged by obstacles in the electoral process The survey respondents strongly support further participation of women in the electoral process: more than three quarters of both men and women believe it is important to increase the participation of women voters in the upcoming elections.
Do you believe it is important to increase the participation of women voters of your community in the upcoming elections?
No
Yes
I don't know / refuse to answer
Male
17%
75%
8%
Female
12%
78%
10%
Total
15%
76%
9%
The percentage of respondents answering ‘no’ to this question shows strong regional variance, from 30% average in the provinces of Southeast and Southwest Afghanistan, to 3% in the Central Highlands, with the Western and Northern regions of Afghanistan all scoring under 10%.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Do you think it's important to increase the participation of women's voting in your community? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Yes
No
In the regions where support to further women’s participation is strongest, such as the Central Highlands and West Afghanistan, the most frequently given reason for why it is not necessary to increase this participation is that women have enough opportunities to vote, making proactive measures no longer necessary. About 15% of the respondents mentioned that according to Islam women do not need to vote; this occurred most frequently in the Northeast and the Southwest, the two most conservative regions in Afghanistan.
I don't know
FEFA asked respondents who said ‘no’ to the question above why they thought it unnecessary to increase women’s electoral participation. The reasons most frequently given are cultural or have to do with the perception that women are less informed than men. In the regions where support to further women’s participation is strongest, such as the Central Highlands and West Afghanistan, the most frequently given reason for why it is not necessary to increase this participation is that women have enough opportunities to vote, making proactive measures no longer necessary. About 15% of the respondents mentioned that according to Islam women do not need to vote; this occurred most frequently in the Northeast and the Southwest, the two most conservative regions in Afghanistan.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Why it is not necessary to increase electoral participation of women in our community Cultural Barrier
%1 %12
%27
Religious barrier Not informed enough
%18
Enough voting opportunities Other
%15 %27
DK/RA
Returning to the 76% of survey respondents who do believe it is necessary to increase women’s participation, FEFA asked them which measures should be taken to achieve this. Up to three replies were allowed per respondent.
What could be done to increase the turnout of women voters in your community? (up to three responses allowed) Increase the quotas for female MPs Don't Know/No Answer Increase the number of female candidates Polling stations in culturally appropriate areas Female police officers at polling stations Awareness raising to promote cultural change Separate facilities & female staff at polling stations Locate polling stations in secure areas Locate polling stations close to women's homes
4% 8% 9%
18% 27% 32% 35% 61% 67%
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections The main concern is a logistical one: where the polling stations are located. It seems most respondents believe that the participation of women could be greatly enhanced if there were secure polling facilities close to their homes; other measures proposed include: more female electoral staff and separate facilities for men and women; awareness-raising about the women’s right and duty to vote; overcoming cultural resistance to women’s voting; and finally changes in the electoral system, which would allow the participation of more women as candidates, thus providing a drive to women’s participation in electoral politics in general. Don't Know/No Answer 3%
Analysis of suggested measures to increase women's participation
Changes in electoral system 5%
Awareness raising to promote cultural change 12%
Polling stations location & facilities 80%
Afghan experts suggested a number of changes to increase the level of women’s participation in the political sphere
Increase the quota for women in Parliament and provincial councils; Allow women to propose their candidacy with fewer signatures than men, as they face more cultural and security problems when collecting these signatures; More civic awareness activities, using the media, campaigning and art to allow a larger role for women in politics;
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Proactive measures to help women when campaigning, for example financial support and provision of security, as it is difficult for women to campaign in current conditions; Political parties should give more prominence and voice to their female members; currently parties seem to be men’s clubs; and More women-centered policies should be proposed by the political forces in the country.
3.6 The role of foreign organizations is problematic FEFA asked the survey respondents “Do you think foreign countries, foreign organizations or international organizations will influence the 2014 elections?” About half of them said yes, less than a quarter said they wouldn’t, while almost a third rather didn’t answer the question.
Will foreign countries or organizations influence the 2014 elections?
%31 Yes %47
No DK / NA
%22
The reply could be taken to mean many different kinds of influence, from meddling by the neighboring countries to ‘impartial observation’ of international organizations and financial support.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Therefore the follow-up question was: “What foreign countries, foreign organizations or international organizations will have the most influence on the 2014 elections? You can list up to five”
Which foreign entities will have the most influence on the 2014 elections? Only those entities mentioned by more than 5% of respondents are listed here
87% 71%
63% 27%
20%
17%
14%
11%
9%
7%
6%
5%
5%
87% of the respondents name the USA, which is clearly seen by most Afghans as the game-maker in their country. About two thirds of the respondents also name Pakistan and Iran, countries which have over the past decades exerted a strong influence over Afghan politics. Maybe surprisingly, the UN and other international organizations (NATO, ISAF, the EU, and the World Bank) are mentioned very rarely, although the question clearly includes ‘foreign’ and ‘international organizations’. Afghans most clearly recognize bilateral relations, not multilateral ones, despite the preponderant role played in the recent past by the UN in supporting electoral processes in the country. The list of countries mentioned by 5% or more of respondents mostly reflects those with traditional influence, in general terms, over Afghanistan: the United Kingdom, Russia, India, France, Turkey, Tajikistan and Saudi Arabia. Page 63
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections The list includes two countries that are not, traditionally, seen as backing a specific Afghan political constituency: Germany and China. China appears to have mostly commercial interests in the country, while Germany is not a country generally perceived internationally to be exerting direct political influence/control over other nations; it may be included in the list because of its high visibility, rather than out of a concern about attempts to influence the outcome of the electoral process, which may well be what Afghans suspect the other countries in the list to do. An analysis on the base equating to 100%, where all the countries mentioned by less than 5% of respondents are grouped together with the regional power, shows the Afghan pie divided in spheres of influence, from the Afghan perspective. One interesting result is that the Arab world, with which Afghanistan often is conflated in popular Western perspectives, is seen as having less influence than Turkey or East Asia. Another result is that India, a country that Afghans feel close to in many ways, is not regarded as trying to unduly influence the electoral process, despite Pakistani claims to the contrary. It is also interesting that the countries of the EU are put on a par with Iran, in terms of influence – and maybe a bit unsettling to European policy makers (although the replies of the surveyed do not imply that they are opposed to the influence exerted). Finally, the relatively high score of Russia and Afghanistan’s northern neighbors might surprise some. %2
%3
%2
Who will influence the 2014 elections?
%3
USA
%4
%24
Pakistan Iran
%8
Europe Russia / Central Asia India / South Asia
%17
%20
China / East Asia UN / international organizations Turkey
%17
Saudi Arabia / Arab countries
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections All this still says little about how foreign countries and organizations could use their influence. FEFA asked the survey respondents: “What do you think the appropriate role is of foreign countries, foreign organizations or international organizations in the 2014 elections?”
How should foreign entities be involved? (3 replies allowed, DK/NA removed) Advocacy/Pubic Awareness Technical Support
17% 18%
Political Support
27%
Should not be involved
27%
Monitoring Transparency Providing Security Funding the election
36% 44% 62%
The most important cited role international organizations and foreign countries can have is funding the electoral process. The provision of security (the back-up and mentoring of Afghan security forces, rather than direct protection of polling sites) also rates high, and more than a third of the respondents also mention international monitoring as desirable. But it is certainly also interesting that more than a quarter of those who responded to this question think that the appropriate role of foreign entities is that “they should not be involved”. Afghan experts were also questioned about the role of international organizations and bilateral donors on the elections. Like the survey respondents, most of them mentioned, foremost, the important role ‘foreigners’ have in monitoring and funding the electoral process. In general the Afghan experts are very positive about foreign involvement, which besides in elections observation, they
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections see in terms of financial and technical assistance, and political assistance/pressure. Providing security during the elections is less of a priority. When foreigners are mentioned in negative terms, it is in relation to their support of specific candidates or parties, i.e. when they’re partial. Sources 12 10 9 6 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
References 55 19 12 6 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
Statement by Afghan Experts The role of foreigners in the elections Monitoring role Financial Assistance Technical Assistance Positive role The state cannot hold elections without the help of the international community Pressure on the government Maintain Security They don't have any influence We can hold elections without foreign funding Afghans themselves were involved in the fraud, not foreigners Supporting specific candidates Afghan political parties are being financed by foreign countries
Regarding the rejection, by more than a quarter of those respondents who had an opinion about what the role should be of foreigners, of any kind of foreign influence, one international expert notes: “Where international actors tend to look at themselves as impartial facilitators and observers of the elections, in the view of many Afghans it is obvious that the internationals will seek to influence, or simply determine, the outcome of Afghanistan’s elections. Given the messiness of the previous elections and the growing suspicion towards the international presence, with its mixed messages, dubious results and unclear agendas, it is no real surprise that a proportion of the respondents believe there should be no involvement in the elections at all. In terms of the discrepancy of what the role should be if there is one, the fact that so few respondents saw a role for internationals in monitoring or facilitating security – as opposed to how
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Afghan experts and the internationals themselves tend to see this –this may be because very few Afghans will have seen direct evidence of any effective international monitoring or security provision.1” A second consulted expert agrees, up to a point, with the “they should not be involved” answer: “It is good that Afghans reject any interference in elections. Any interference is against the law. It also should be added that if there was foreign interference in past elections it did not come from monitors but from international governmental organisations. There can be no doubt that independent monitoring is necessary, this is an internationally established norm.” Another international expert, commenting on the differences of perception between the survey respondents and the Afghan experts, notes: “Seen from the ground up, the international community in both 2009 and 2010 played a highly visible role, and it is easy to see how many would have interpreted this role as interference.” The view from on top, by [Afghan] experts, might be more generous and knowledgeable towards the role of the international community. This expert also points out: “The unwillingness to have the international community provide security is probably linked both to the fear that it might enable international interference, as well as a probably justified view among Afghans that international security forces do not actually provide security, and sometimes either commit acts that create insecurity themselves or attract attacks from the insurgency that do the same. I think there is a dual view of the international security presence that seems contradictory but is in fact subtly rational. That is that at the local level, the actions of international troops are often resented (house searches, civilian casualties, the arrogance of convoys, etc.) while seen in abstract terms the presence of these forces are welcome because they represent a safeguard against the abandonment of Afghanistan by the international community.”
“It is good that Afghans reject any interference in elections. Any interference is against the law. It also should be added that if there was foreign interference in past elections it did not come from monitors but from international governmental organisations. There can be no doubt that independent monitoring is necessary, this is an internationally established norm.”
The participants in the Concept Mapping exercise, identifying barriers to electoral participation, mentioned the following ones linked to foreign countries and international organizations; they are organized from less to higher importance and more to less progress made in overcoming them (according to the participants themselves): It must be noted that the preliminary data analysis that was given to international experts differed with the final analysis presented here; originally it appeared that international monitoring and security provision was less appreciated than technical support (a coding error). 1
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Voting cards distributed to Pakistani citizens living in areas close to the Afghan border in the south of Afghanistan; Absence of adequate international observers in polling stations; Foreign intelligence agencies foment dissent through funding and influencing certain political parties; Foreign leaders endorse specific candidates; Neighbouring countries, especially Iran and Pakistan, interfere in the election process; Interference by foreign countries to incite conflict between ethnic or religious groups within Afghanistan; and Afghanistan is dependent on foreign countries for funding, planning and/or monitoring of elections.
Clearly there is a very strong concern about foreign meddling with the electoral process, in an attempt to influence the vote and fan the flames of inter-ethnic conflict. But interestingly, the lack of international observers in the polling stations was also mentioned, while by far the most serious problem, according to the participants, is the Afghan dependence for holding its elections on foreign funding and technical support. This result may provide the key to understanding the general attitude of Afghans towards foreign involvement in the electoral process: while they think that many countries, from the USA to their neighbors, use their influence to attempt to determine the outcome of the elections, and would therefore rather not have them involved, they also realize that foreign assistance is still highly necessary – in terms of funding, monitoring, providing security and even to put pressure on the Afghan government.
While Afghans see that many countries, from the USA to their neighbors, use their influence to attempt to determine the outcome of the elections, and would therefore rather not have them involved, they also realize that foreign assistance is still highly necessary – in terms of funding, monitoring, providing security and even to put pressure on the Afghan government.
“Democracy especially means two things: the rule of the people for the people and freedom”. Focus group discussions
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
4. Afghan Attitudes towards Democracy 4.1 There is still a lot of debate about what democracy means and its effects on Afghanistan In this survey, provincial focus groups were a venue of particularly strong debate on democracy. Of the seven questions that guided the discussions, two focused on democracy: 1. 2.
What does “democracy” mean to you? Has democracy brought changes to Afghanistan? If so, what are the most significant changes?
It appears that to the focus group participants (drawn from diverse social groups) democracy especially means two things: the rule of the people for the people and freedom: this was stated in almost all the focus groups that discussed this matter. The first statement is a fairly classical one, an approximate translation of the Greek word. The second however is more problematic: freedom of what or whom? To do what? It generated much discussion, also about the negative changes democracy had brought. Only a few people defined democracy as a system bringing equal rights or a system of majority rule. The relationship between democracy and Islam was discussed at length. Quite a number of participants defined democracy as the implementation of God’s provisions on Earth and the majority of discussants thought that democracy is not contrary to Islam. It was argued that elections (and the right to be elected) are enshrined in Islamic values, and that democracy and Islam can strengthen one another. One even said “democracy is the right of every Muslim.” But a democratic political system cannot solve all problems: one participant lamented that “democracy is worshipped as if it were a God”. Many focus group participants made a distinction between “Western democracy” and “Islamic democracy”, and most of these – but certainly not all – supported the latter against the former. The separation of religion and state was one such ‘Western’ issue that would not occur in an “Islamic democracy.”
Many focus group participants made a distinction between ‘Western democracy’ and ‘Islamic democracy’, and most of these – but certainly not all – supported the Islamic version of democracy rather than western one. The separation of religion and state was one such ‘Western’ issue that would not occur in an ‘Islamic democracy’.
While discussing the changes democracy had brought, assessments where overwhelmingly positive: the development of education, changes in the political order, equal rights, the development of infrastructure, and the freedom of expression and of the media were listed the most significant changes brought by democracy in Afghanistan.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections When discussing the changes democracy had brought to Afghanistan, the assessments were overwhelmingly positive. Among the positive changes, the most often mentioned were (in descending order)
The development of education, Changes in the political order, Equal rights, The development of infrastructure, and The freedom of expression and of the media
In the field of education, a surprisingly often mentioned positive development is the equal rights girls and boys now enjoy through the schooling system, all the way up to University. This was also mentioned as a positive development for minorities. So, although the multiplication of schools and higher institutes of learning is seen as a positive change of democracy, it is especially the equal access to education that is seen as a hopeful change. In the political field, the most positive change democracy has brought, according to the focus group participants, is the principle of an elected government, universal voting rights, and the setting up of a parliament with legislative authority. The constitution and the human rights commission were also named as positive results of democracy. Regarding equal rights, the main positive change democracy was seen to have brought in this domain is equality between women and men, at many levels of society – from the parliament to the courts. Another often-mentioned change was rights awareness, which allows women and minorities to fight for their rights, and the development of civil society, including human rights defenders. Democracy was also seen as responsible for the reconstruction of the country and the improvement of its transportation and communication sectors, and agriculture, health, and the economy (the private sector). As one participant in Kunduz noted: “we cannot ignore the achievements which came along with democracy in Afghanistan ... a decade ago, for example, if someone wanted to make an international call, he had to go to Pakistan”. ‘Democracy’ thus is used as a rather elastic concept to cover all changes, including infrastructural development that have occurred in the last ten years (in authoritarian regimes telecommunications systems also improve).
As to the negative changes brought along by democracy, the main one that was pointed out is the increase in corruption. Unemployment, addiction to narcotics, insecurity and impunity, and social justice were also ranked high.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections As to the negative changes brought along by democracy, the main one that was pointed out is the increase in corruption. Others, in decreasing order of frequency, include: increase in unemployment, addiction to narcotics, insecurity and impunity, and increasing cruelty of the powerful towards ordinary people Positive Changes brought by democracy
Improvements in education (equal access), Political changes (parliament, elections, constitution etc.), Equal rights for women and minorities, Infrastructural works (roads, telecoms, health, economy), and Freedom of media and opinion.
Negative Changes brought by democracy
Increase in corruption, Unemployment, Addiction to narcotics, Insecurity and impunity, and Social injustice.
As we will see towards the end of this section (4.5) the attitudes of the focus group participants towards the current state of democracy in Afghanistan are much more negative than their assessment of changes brought since this system was instituted in Afghanistan.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 4.2 Afghans are positive about progress made so far and future prospects ‌
Afghanistan has... 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% East
South West
West
South East
Changed for the worse
Kabul / Central
North Central North East Highland West
Changed for the better
Total
DK / NA
On average 85% of the survey respondents said that, in their opinion, Afghanistan has changed for the better over the past 10 years; only 10% thought Afghanistan has changed for the worse. The least positive were respondents in the Eastern and Southwestern region, where 80% thought Afghanistan had changed for the better, compared to 15-16% who thought it had not. Moreover young respondents (the half of the survey population aged 31 and younger) are slightly more positive than the elder.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
86%
83%
Youngest Eldest
9%
12% 5%
5%
Changed for the worse
Changed for the better
DK/NA
The differences in opinion are a bit more important when one looks at the employment of respondents; the private sector (consisting mostly of self-employed people) is most critical of the changes over the past ten years, while civil servants are most content. It appears that Afghanistan is now a better place for people in government employment than for those engaged in the private sector.
Afghanistan changed for the worse
13%
12%
10%
10%
Private Sector
Unemployed / searching for work
Other (retired, religious etc)
Not employed because dependent
6% Civil Servant
Afghanistan changed for the worse
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections FEFA also asked respondents how, in particular, their own family’s life had changed over the same period. The results were very similar to the more general question about the country. The surveyed do not seem to make a major difference between how their country, and how they themselves are faring. Here’s the reply of women to that question. Percentages for men are nearly identical.
Has your family's life... %3 %11
DK / NA Changed for the worse Changed for the better %86
International experts are confounded by the surprisingly high percentage of respondents who assess progress made over the past ten years as positive - data that is incidentally supported by another recent survey of Afghan public opinion (The Asia Foundation 2013 report). One argues that “one perhaps needs to factor in the tendency among Afghans to put a brave face on things”, another that “developments in the first post-Taleban years were more promising than they are now ... So we might speak about a general curve that initially rose, and is pointing downwards again” and a third that “people may choose to stress the brighter side despite concerns (after all, God is kind), maybe to lighten the mood or in the hope that it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy”. While that may be so, a different expert points out that “Possible reasons why the result might represent the actual beliefs of Afghans is that the future is looked at hopefully against the historical memory of a painful past. At some level, this response might reflect a greater confidence in Afghan institutions among Page 74
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Afghans than exists among members of the international community ‌ [which] looks at the specific issues of corruption, insecurity, and economic frailty, which have all become more acute in recent years, and project a negative outlook. When compared to the assessment of how the past decade has affected Afghanistan and its inhabitants, respondents are less positive about the current developments. Nevertheless, when asked “Do you think Afghanistan is moving in the right or the wrong direction?â€? the replies are still overwhelmingly positive, a bit higher among young Afghans than among the elder:
Afghanistan is moving in the...
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
16%
18%
17%
71%
65%
68%
13%
17%
15%
Youngest Wrong direction
Eldest Right direction
Total DK / NA
Regionally we see, a by now familiar variation: respondents in the Northwestern provinces and the Central Highlands are most optimistic, respondents in the Southeast, Southwest and Central Region around Kabul are most pessimistic. In half of Afghanistan, more than two third of the respondents are positive about the future. In the other half, optimists still outweigh the pessimists by at least 3:1.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
I think Afghanistan is moving in the ... Right direction
28% 16%
56%
24% 19%
57%
Wrong direction
22%
16%
16%
13%
18%
16%
66%
67%
65%
DK / NA 8%
9%
20%
13%
72%
78%
6% 5%
88%
As an international expert notes: “The optimism does not surprise me that much. So much of the international media attention is on the doom, gloom and corruption of elections in Afghanistan, that they ignore the success of them. I interpret the drop in the number of respondents who think the country is headed in the right direction as evidence of concerns about the transition past Karzai.”
4.3 … and overwhelmingly support democratic rights, particularly equal access to justice … As noted above, in the survey methodology, FEFA decided to gauge Afghan attitudes towards democracy by breaking it down into some key concepts, namely the independence of courts, the right to demonstrate, equal rights before the law and the freedom of media. Indeed, as the focus group discussions demonstrate, there is quite a lot of confusion as to the meaning of democracy, especially when attempting to analyze the changes it has brought about in the country. Therefore these questions were added to the public opinion survey. Page 76
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Do you support a system of government where the courts operate independently and cannot be influenced by money or political power? Total North East Central Highland North West West South West South East East Kabul & Central
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Kabul & Central
East
South East
South West
West
North West
Central Highlan d
North East
Total
%84
96%
87%
85%
92%
80%
90%
88%
87%
Do not support
9%
2%
3%
11%
3%
12%
6%
6%
7%
DK / NA
7%
2%
10%
3%
5%
8%
4%
5%
6%
Support
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Do you support Afghan citizens’ right to demonstrate when they do not agree with a government decision? Total North East Central Highland North West West South West South East East Kabul & Central 0% Kabul & Central
20% East
South East
40% South West
60% 80% 100% North Central North West Total West Highland East
Yes I support
53%
74%
62%
63%
74%
48%
65%
57%
61%
No I don't support
29%
23%
16%
31%
13%
43%
30%
32%
28%
DK / NA
18%
3%
22%
6%
13%
9%
5%
11%
12%
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Do you support the principle that powerful individuals and institutions must operate according to the laws of the country? Total North East Central Highland North West West South West South East East Kabul & Central 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Kabul & Central %81 Support
East
South East
South West
West
North West
Central Highland
North East
Total
91%
85%
83%
88%
84%
85%
84%
85%
Against
13%
6%
4%
13%
4%
11%
8%
8%
9%
DK / NA
7%
3%
12%
4%
8%
5%
7%
8%
7%
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Do you support the principle of a media that is free to criticize the government or other individuals, organizations or institutions in society? Total North East Central Highland North West West South West South East East Kabul & Central 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Kabul & Central %77 Support
East
South East
South West
West
North West
Central Highland
North East
Total
89%
74%
80%
86%
81%
85%
79%
81%
Against
9%
8%
6%
16%
4%
10%
7%
10%
9%
DK / NA
13%
2%
20%
5%
10%
9%
8%
11%
10%
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections The charts above show overwhelming support for democratic principles. In particular the independence of courts and the principle that all Afghans, including the most powerful, should obey the Law equally, draw a lot of popular support: 87% and 85% of those surveyed, respectively. Justice is a recurrent theme in the survey, alongside education. This is true particularly if electoral fraud, corruption and the abuse of power are considered as problems mainly related to a malfunctioning judicial system. The focus on justice as an important issue for the presidential elections is not surprising. An international expert elaborates:
“Traditionally … for Afghans legitimacy of leadership has always been closely tied to the ability of leaders to demonstrate that they act justly. … The economic and military power of Afghanistan’s current rulers, and their protection by the international community, has allowed them to act with impunity. There are valid reasons to believe that much of the growth of the insurgency has less to do with sympathy for the Taliban, and more to do with grievances against government officials who have used their formal power to dispossess traditional rivals and settle old grievances”. Considering the regional variation, it is interesting that two regions consistently score higher on the ‘democratic attitudes’ subject: East Afghanistan (Nangarhar, Kunar, Laghman, Nuristan) and West Afghanistan (Herat, Farah, Badghis and Ghor). If one averages the responses, by province, on the four questions, one finds that, indeed, with 88% support of democratic principles, East Afghanistan leads the way; West Afghanistan follows with 85%, and with only 6% opposition against these principles is the least reticent region; and the Central Highlands come third with 81% support. One might think that the more conservative regions of Southeast, Southwest and Northeast Afghanistan would be at the bottom of the list, but in fact they are not; Kabul and especially Northwest Afghanistan are the least fervent supporters of democratic principles, with 74 and 73% on average.
Justice is a recurrent theme in the survey, alongside education. Particularly if electoral fraud, corruption and the abuse of power are considered as problems mainly related to a malfunctioning judicial system.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Support for democratic principles 3% 10%
88%
East
9% 6%
6%
5%
13%
18%
85%
81%
78%
West
Central Highland
South West Yes
16% 7%
77%
9% 14%
77%
South East North East No
11%
8%
9%
15%
19%
13%
74%
73%
Kabul
North West
78%
Total
DK / NA
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 4.4 … but support to democratic rights is not unconditional... In order to offset receiving only ‘socially desirable’ replies, FEFA also asked counter-questions on each subject:
Exceptions to democratic principles 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Yes
No
DK / NA
Do you think that in some cases influential or powerful people should have the right to control the courts? Do you think that in some cases the government should have the right to punish citizens for demonstrating? Do you think that in some cases powerful and influential people should have the right not to follow the laws of the country? Do you think that in some cases, the media should not have the right to criticize the government or other individuals, organizations or institutions in society?
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections The replies were generally consistent with the principle, with the difference being greatest in the conditional freedom granted by the survey respondents to the press. Comparing the support to democratic principles with the acceptance of exceptions yeilds the following results:
87% of respondents support the independence of courts but 19% think that in some cases, the powerful should have the right to control the courts – this shows that at least 6% of respondents supports the principle but allows derogations to it to be made. 61% of respondents support the right to demonstrate, and 31% think that in some cases, the government should have the right to punish demonstrators. 85% of respondents think the powerful should follow the law, and only 12% think that in some cases, the powerful should be allowed to disobey Afghan laws. While 81% of the surveyed supports the principle of a media free to criticize the government, institutions or individuals, only 47% supports that right unconditionally, while 36% agree that in some cases, the media should be reined in. Here we see the greatest disparity between the principle and its practical application.
4.5 ... while the current state of democratic development is insufficient When asked how they assess the current state of affairs on these subjects pertaining to democratic principles, respondents were quite negative on the issue of equal access to justice, but more positive on the right to demonstrate and media freedom:
Would you agree that, currently 59% 21%
20%
Courts operate independently
66%
54%
54% 30%
27%
16%
19%
21%
14%
Citizens can demonstrate Powerful people operate Media is free to criticize without fear according to the laws the government Yes
No
DK / NA
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections As an international expert points out, when discussing the role of the media in the electoral campaign: “Many media outlets are controlled by political candidates or parties, and there is a justified fear that these outlets might be used to promote the campaigns of these candidates in a way that is destabilizing. In other words, given the stakes of the electoral contest, many Afghans believe that the media on its own will not restrain itself, and could turn the electoral campaign into a fractious contest rather than a somewhat controlled debate on the future direction of the country.” As for the issue of justice, one international expert notes: “The 20% response rate by those who believe that the courts function independently tracks closely with other research suggesting that 80% of disputes are resolved outside the formal court system. 68% who respond that powerful people should not control the courts is actually rather high, especially given the 12% who provided no answer”. To conclude this discussion of Afghan opinions about democracy, the following excerpts of discussions in the Herat focus group are revealing: “Democracy is a good system which has worked in many countries; however, it has not produced intended outcomes in Afghanistan and failed to meet the expectations” “Positive changes [brought about by democracy are]: expansion of education, regime change (establishment of parliament and expansion of civil society), and construction of roads and private sector growth. On the other hand negative changes include increase in corruption, insecurity and instability.” “Equity of rights that enabled women to study, teach and do business as men in Afghanistan, are important changes brought by democracy” “In Afghanistan democracy is misinterpreted, an early and imported phenomenon which involves fraud. Real democracy has yet to come to Afghanistan.” In Badakhshan FEFA was told “While we support democracy and praise it as a system which opposes violence and fraud, we are frustrated with the amount of fraud and the lack of positive impacts.” while women in Bamiyan lamented that “Real democracy has not come to Afghanistan; people have tainted it as they used it as a cover for their misbehaviours (...) Those who we voted for destroyed our trust, because they did not act upon the promises they made during their election campaigns.” Finally, this lone voice from Helmand: “Mayors and provincial governors should also be elected by the people”.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Annexes Annex A: Sources Used Sources for literature review: 1. Afghanistan: Politics, Elections, and Government Performance - Kenneth Katzman, Congressional Research Services - March 19, 2013 - Congressional report 2. Free, Fair or Flawed: Challenges for Legitimate Elections in Afghanistan - Andrew Reynolds and Andrew Wilder, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit - September 2004 - Briefing Paper 3. Fixing Afghanistan’s Electoral system, Arguments and Options for Reform – Andrew Reynolds and John Carey, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit – July 2012 - Briefing Paper 4. US Election Observation Mission: Afghanistan Parliamentary Elections 2010 – Democracy International - June 2011- Final Project Report 5. Preparing for Elections in Afghanistan: Prospects and Challenges - Martin Hess, Therese Pearce Laanela and William Maley, Australian National University - March 2012 – Summary Report 6. Survey on Political Institutions, Elections and Democracy in Afghanistan – Democracy International - November 2012 - Research 7. US Electoral Observation Mission to the Afghanistan Presidential and Provincial Council Elections 2009 - Democracy International - August 2010 - Final Project Report 8.
Political Parties in Afghanistan - International Crisis Group - June 2005 - Policy Briefing
9.
Political Parties in Afghanistan - National Democratic Institute – June 2011 – Research Paper
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 10. Equal Rights, Unequal Opportunities: Women’s Participation in Afghanistan’s Parliamentary and Provincial Council Elections - Oliver Lough et al., Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit March 2012 - Synthesis Paper 11. Afghanistan in 2012, A Survey of the Afghan People – The Asia Foundation – November 2012 – Survey 12. Voter Behavior Survey, Afghanistan’s 2010 Parliamentary Elections - The Asia Foundation– November 2012 – Survey
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
Annex B: Questions to the Afghan Experts Electoral Institutions (IEC & IECC) and Electoral Legislation—Current State and Future Development 1. 2. 3.
How do you assess the performance of the Independent Election Commission and Electoral Complaints Commission during the recent Parliamentary Elections? What actions and steps should the government, IEC and IECC take to improve the future elections and to avoid fraud? Are you satisfied with the current Elections Decree? If “yes,” jump to next topic, if “no,” ask: Are you aware of the new draft Election Law currently under discussion by the Wolesi Jirga? What changes would you like to see included in the draft Law?
Technical/Logistical Operations of Polling & Voter Turnout— Challenges and Solutions (including Security, Voter Fraud etc.) 1. 2. 3.
How can we enhance the effectiveness of the IEC and IECC’s technical and logistical operations? What impact do you think insecurity will have on the upcoming 2014 elections? As you are aware, for the upcoming elections, the government has announced that they will be issuing electronic ID cards which will be used to issue electronic voter registration cards. At the same time, old voter registration cards from previous elections will also be permissible. What do you think the implications for this process will be for the prospect of holding a free and fair election?
Campaigning and Candidates 1. 2.
3. 4.
What challenges or obstacles do you see related to the campaign process? As you may be aware, the new Election Law restricts the amount of money each candidate can spend during elections campaigns. What do you think the effects of this new law will be? How do you assess women’s participation in previous parliamentary elections? How can we strengthen the role of women both as a candidate and campaigner a during campaign period?
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 5. Do you think candidates had equal access to state resources (Including public venues, state owned media coverage, etc.) during the campaign period of the last parliamentary election? If negative, ask next question; if positive, jump to next topic. 6. How can we provide candidates with equal access to state resources during the campaign period? Political Parties—Current State and Future Development 1. 2.
3. 4.
What electoral system do you prefer—SNTV, PR or mixed? Why? How do you feel about Parliament’s decision in April 2013 to keep the SNTV system? Do you have any party affiliation? Don’t tell me which party, only whether or not you have any party affiliation. If no, why not? If yes, what are your reasons for supporting your party of choice? What are the main impediments facing or shortcomings of political parties now? How can we enhance the role of political parties in the upcoming 2014 elections?
Influence of Foreign Actors on Democratic Processes and Elections 1.
In what areas do international actors impact the electoral process either positively or negatively? 2. Many reports/surveys show that the Afghan government believes the country is now ready to part ways with international actors and take on the upcoming elections without any direct foreign influence; do you agree or disagree? If answer is “no,” ask #2; if answer is “yes,” jump to #4. 3. How is it possible for the government to ensure transparent and fair elections without international experts observing the process? 4. If we do diminish the role of international actors in upcoming elections, what are the consequences going to be?
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Annex C: Concept Mapping Data: Identifying Barriers to Electoral Participation Below is the list of 73 barriers to a free and fair election 2014, as identified by participants if FEFA’s concept mapping workshops. For further details on the workshops, see Annex D and the methodology section in the main body of the report. 1 2
Candidates engage in unlawful use of government resources and facilities, religious or public venues IEC staff lack capacity and/or do not display adequate professionalism
3
IEC staff engage in fraud or exhibit bias for specific candidates
4
IEC Civic Educators are hired based on nepotism
5
Voters lack trust in candidates because in the past, elected officials have not fulfilled campaign promises and have failed to fulfill the ideals and goals of elections
6
Candidates obtain votes through force or bribery
7
Neighboring countries, especially Iran and Pakistan, interfere in the election process
8
Certain groups or parties engage in propaganda opposing democracy and elections
9
Absence of adequate observers in polling stations
10
Voters have little awareness of and access to information about elections
11
Lack of transparency in the working procedures of elections
12
Government does not provide fair and equal access to resources for all candidates
13
Insufficient number of security personnel at polling stations on election day
14
Persons in power intimidate or threaten voters on election day
15
IEC fails to secure crucial materials such as ballot papers and boxes on election day
16
IEC quarantines ballot boxes without due cause (therefore invalidating the ballots)
17
Lack of participation of female voters due to security threats
18
Local commanders, warlords and candidates trade voting cards
19
Lack of transportation and remoteness of areas with limited or no access to voting stations
20
Voters in remote areas having little awareness of and access to information about elections
21
Lack of female candidates
22
Candidates' observers interfere in the voting process on election day
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 23
Many observers of a single candidate are present at polling stations
24
Candidates enter polling stations on election day (which is illegal)
25
Lack of active participation of female voters due to family and social constraints
26
Candidates campaign on election day (which is illegal)
27
Insurgent groups threaten voters and foment insecurity
28
Minorities are reluctant to participate or face extra barriers in participating in elections
29
IEC issues voter registration cards without proper review of registrant personal documentation
30
Inadequate number of female police in voter registration and polling centers
31
Ballots boxes are tampered with while being transported from polling stations to Kabul
32
Voters lack trust in elections because of fraud and failure of the government and IEC to fulfill the ideals and goals of elections in previous election cycles
33
Lack of facilities for people with disabilities at polling stations
34
Fraud on the part of IEC staff, such as deceiving voters when voters request guidance on selection of candidates
35
Lack of accurate monitoring of the election process
36
Chemicals are available that can remove indelible ink for fingers on election day
37
Lack of IEC staff in polling stations
38
Inadequate number of voting booths at polling stations
39
Low quality of sensitive election materials such as ballot papers, ink and lock of ballot boxes
40 41
Insertion of fake ballots into voting boxes by voting station attendants in favor of a particular candidate Afghan national security forces collaborate with armed opposition groups to disrupt elections
42
Existence of warlord figures on the list of candidates
43
45
Foreign intelligence agencies foment dissent through funding and influencing certain political parties Interference by foreign countries to incite conflict between ethnic or religious groups within Afghanistan Candidates threaten or intimidate other candidates
46
Road closures on election day due to poor infrastructure and/or weather conditions
47
Polling centers are located in the private homes of candidates (which is illegal)
44
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 48
Polling stations close due to security threats
49 50
Candidates' photos are distributed by candidates' observers to voters to influence them on election day Candidates campaign at educational institutions (which is illegal)
51
Civil society and media are marginalized during the electoral process and on election day
52
IECC is not receptive or responsive to voters' complaints
53
Lack of state authority in many areas
54
Observers are not permitted full access to polling stations
55
Ballots are tampered with at polling stations
56
Voting cards distributed to Pakistani citizens living in in areas close to the Afghan border
57
Electronic ID cards not issued/used
58
Lack of voter registration centers and polling stations in remote locations
59
Absence of adequate international observers in polling stations
60
IEC tampers with ballots at central level in Kabul
61
Lack of female observers in many areas, especially remote or rural areas
62
IEC members and IEC Chairperson are appointed by the President
63
Men take voting cards from women and vote on their behalf
64
Lack of media presence during vote counting and tallying process
65
Insufficient billboards, banners, charts and informative posters by IEC
66 67
Two voting cards distributed to Kuchis (once for their special status as Kuchis and once as normal voters) Afghanistan is dependent on foreign countries for funding, planning and/or monitoring of elections
68
Foreign leaders endorse specific candidates
69
Incumbent Afghan President endorses a specific candidate
70
Women wear burqa at polling stations, disguising their identity
71
Lack of accurate statistics of the population of Afghanistan
72
Voters obtain and use multiple voting cards
73
Some individuals vote on behalf of other individuals
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
The above map represents the conceptual grouping and similarity of the 73 barriers. Each Provincial Coordinator in the 12 provinces in which Concept Mapping workshops took place were asked to sort the 73 barriers into piles. Each organization of barriers was then run through Concept Mapping software to produce the cluster in the figure above. While the clusters were computer generated, the themes (i.e. names) of each cluster were identified by FEFA’s research team manually, based on the barriers regrouped in each cluster.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections
The participants rated each barrier on two scales from 1 to 5: the importance of the barrier and the progress made in overcoming it. Each statement is an aggregate of barriers; we see that participants have rated the importance (between 3.33 and 4.92) higher than the progress made in overcoming it. The CM software then calculates the average and divides the statements into four zones: top left (in orange) the least problematic ones, as the importance is lower and the progress made in overcoming the barrier higher; below left (grey) the less important barriers on which progress has been sluggish; top right (green) the more important barriers, but where progress has also been higher; and bottom left (yellow) the most problematic barriers, as they are considered important but progress in overcoming them has been unimpressive. From a policy point of view, these should be considered the most important. Here’s a list of these barriers (taken from the full list above); they have been ordered according to less important/more progress to most important/least progress:
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 18. 6. 32. 42. 67. 69. 20. 73. 41. 27. 17. 55. 71. 31. 53. 72. 40. 60. 48.
Local commanders, warlords and candidates trade voting cards. Candidates obtain votes through force or bribery. Voters lack trust in elections because of fraud and failure of the government and IEC to fulfill the ideals and goals of elections in previous election cycles. Existence of warlord figures on the list of candidates Afghanistan is dependent on foreign countries for funding, planning and/or monitoring of elections. Incumbent Afghan President endorses a specific candidate. Voters in remote areas having little awareness of and access to information about elections. Some individuals vote on behalf of other individuals. Afghan national security forces collaborate with armed opposition groups to disrupt elections. Insurgent groups threaten voters and foment insecurity. Lack of participation of female voters due to security threats Ballots are tampered with at polling stations. Lack of accurate statistics of the population of Afghanistan Ballots boxes are tampered with while being transported from polling stations to Kabul. Lack of state authority in many areas Voters obtain and use multiple voting cards. Insertion of fake ballots into voting boxes by voting station attendants in favor of a particular candidate IEC tampers with ballots at central level in Kabul Polling stations close due to security threats.
We see that electoral fraud and insecurity are considered the most important problems, compounded by a bad delivery of government services and the presence of warlords. Returning to the clusters, if we average the importance and progress ratings for each statement within the clusters, we obtain the following diagram:
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Again, the clusters to watch are those where importance is highest and progress made to overcome them slowest:
Insecurity Shortcomings of the government Observation and transparency The interference of warlords/commanders Barriers to women and minorities
More or less in that order of importance. On the other hand, although they do remain barriers to electoral participation, the most progress has been made on:
The misconduct of candidates The functioning of the Independent Electoral Commission The role of civil society and the international community The interference in the electoral process of foreigners (read: neighboring countries and USA, see paragraph 3.5 of the findings).
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Annex D: Provincial Focus Groups Focus Group meetings were held after the Concept Mapping workshops in
Kunar (Asadabad) Nangarhar (Jalalabad) Kabul Bamiyan Paktia (Gardez) Kandahar Helmand (Lashkar Gah) Herat Faryab (Maimana) Balkh (Mazar-I Sharif) Kunduz Badakhshan (Faizabad)
In each province two focus groups were held, one for men and one for women. In each focus group 8 people participated, drawing from the following constituencies: government officials at the provincial and national level, representatives from civil society organizations, and community leaders such as teachers, shura leaders, journalists and mullahs. The focus group meetings were recorded. The discussions focused on the following questions: Questions 1. 2.
3. 4.
What does “democracy” mean to you? Do you believe in a system of government whereby: (1) all citizens have the right to choose their government through a popular vote and (2) whereby all citizens have the right to run for public office? Has democracy brought changes to Afghanistan? If no, skip to question #4. If yes, what are the most significant changes? Please express your opinion on the electoral process in Afghanistan?
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 5. 6. 7.
Are you familiar with the role and performance of the IEC and IECC? If yes, how do you assess the performance of these institutions? What is your opinion about political parties? What do you think the role of political parties should be in the 2014 elections?
From the transcripts of the recorded meetings statements were isolated. These statements were coded into a database using NVivo software; the database consisted of 570 statements, each of them linked to the contexts in which they had been made – both geographically and textually. We thus had a tool to assess the statements that had been made, how they had been made, in which focus group meeting and how often similar statements had been made across all the focus groups. This database is too extensive to be reproduced here, but it has been used for analysis throughout the findings section.
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Annex E: Sampling Points of the Survey In each sampling point 10 households were randomly selected, and from each household one person was interviewed List of Sample Points Province
District
Faiz Abad
Kasham Badakhshan Shuhada
Yaftal Sofla Baharak Markaz Badghis (Qala-e-naw) Badghis
Maqar Qades
Baghlan
Baghlan Jadid
Village Deh Bala Chata Deh Payen Chata Dahan Aab Shor Aabak Naw Abad Kangorchi Shakhdan Teka Deh Qazyan Dasht Shah Arif Chakaran Naland Shakar Lab Soron Rubabi Cheche Maghzar Amala Ha Totak Sanjetak Kamore Ha Qerchaghi Zad Saleh Abakhsh Naw Abad
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District
Markaz Baghlan (Pole surkh)
Doshi Khanjan Baghlan Jadid
Balkh
Mazar Sharif Balkh Balkh Dahdadi
Village Darwazi Ha (Aqamatgah)1 Laqa-e-ha2 Wazer Abad Dagora Zamankher Chehel Kapa Chaqmaq Shikh Dara Gak3 Turkan Sabz Khan Khawaja Khan Guldara-e-ha Uzbak Ha Qaria Kuhna Zaoud Qaria Joye Sheran Qaria Kado Khan Gozar Katre Mamoren Gozar Shorta Kazra Gozar Kelken Gozar Karte Bakhtar Qaria Rubat Qaria Chahar Bagh Golshan Qaria Chahar Gunbad Qaria Arab Ha Qaria Hazar Jereb
Replaced by Kocha Eqamatgah due to a security problem Replaced by Mirwais Mena due to a security problem 3 Replaced by Ahmad village due to Taliban control of the area 1 2
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District
Naher Shahe
Mazar Sharif
Markaz Bamyan
Bamyan
Sheebar
Waras
Village Qaria Husain Khili Qaria Pashton Kot Qaria Jughdak Qaria Baba Yadgar Naw Shad Karte Baba Ali Sher Karte Sulhe Awal Ali Chopan Regshad Bala ShireenTapa Garwanai Mir Hashem Haidar Abad Katawai Chahar Chashma Qarghana To Habashi Shebar to Tob Ali Qarghana to Mamorak Shahedan Surkh Sheghling Shahedan Gunbad Sad Barg Joqal Welayatak Shanbal Bolola Qawm Barfi Dahan Nala Sia Kharak
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District
Markaz Daikundi (Nili)
Mir Amor Daikundi
Shahristan
Markaz Daikundi (Nili) Markaz Farah Farah
Markaz Farah Sheeb Koh
1
Village Rang Darakht1 Sar Nili Sangmom Pai Nili Ghadr Askan Bagh Wajgeenak Pai Takhoye Myana Nalinj Tob Sarkhag Charkh Zer Jog Deh myana Band Aab Bakhsh Ghasor Sar Wosho Pai Meher Sar Ghochan Shyuna Bagh Lazeer Mesh Sefli Mesh Ulya Nahya Sewom Nahya Chaharm Qala-e-Mulki Qala-e-Kanjak Darzak Badak
Replaced by Karmazrak village due to the very small population Page 102
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District Anar Dara Markaz Faryab (Maimana) Khwaja Sabz Posh Shireen Tagab
Faryab Pashton Kot Qara Qol Andkhoye
Markaz Ghazni
Qara Bagh Ghazni Nahor Jaghato
Village Bojak Sadak Takli Khana Zargar Khana Dahano Badghisi Faiz Abad Islam Qala Kohe Sayad Jamshidi Emam Saheb Kariz Qala Uoch Burj Razgari Alhandi Khana Saqz Khana Tawachi Khana Plan Sewom Shaher Kuhna Haidar Abad Naye Qala Sher Abad Kuhna Deh Bahaye Sar Asyab Dobi Khana Khawaja Daka Haidar Surab
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District Khawaja Umri Markaz Ghazni
Jaghori Markaz Jaghori (Cheghcharan) Do Leena Ghor
Dawlat Yar Lal Sar Jangal Markaz Helmand (Lashkargah)
Helmand
Nad Ali
Nawa-e-Barikzai
Village Deh Nehal Bini Sang Bakawol Rawza Qala Shahada Sang Masha Loman Angori (Sadat Hotqal) Markaz Shahr Cheghcharan Qats Markaz Doleena Gerd Holing Shar Shar Sofla Awlad Khairullah Asad Abad Mir Zaran Sare Saqaba Safyan Katre Lagan Chehel Metra Chah Enjar Loye Bagh Gul Bagh Khalj Basalan Hazar Asp
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District Garam
Ser1
Marja
Kashak (Rubat Sangi)
Shahr Herat
Herat Pashton Zarghon
Gozra
Village Kofak2 Khare3 Dewala4 Black 7 Kimp Marja Torghondi Jalal Abad Haft Toye Sufla Qala Kuhna Naya Awal Naya Dowom Naya Sewom Nahya Chaharum Nahya Banjum Kashkaserwan Haroon Safidan Tesharez Ha Deh Mir Sad Gawashan Qala Mir Gul Rubat Arbab Azam Rubat Haji Yusof Rubat Jabar Khan
Replacements due to insecurity / lack of female surveyors Replaced by (Da Zeerat Nomri) 3 Replaced by (Toor Tank) 4 Replaced by (Qala-ye Kohna) due to insecurity / lack of female surveyors 1 2
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District
Ghoryan
Karokh
Markaz (Sheberghan)
Jawzjan
Markaz (Sheberghan)
Khawaja Doko
Kabul
Markaz Kabul
Village Astanoon Sar Asyab Myandojo Gaza Dahane Ghar Mujghandak Ali Mansoor Akhund Zada Mahal Balai Markaz Woloswali Mirwais Mina Karte Dostom Proghi F Cok Gunbad Yanga Arigh Miser Abad Qazal Ayaq Mangjak Saltaq Kalan Qasaba Khana Sazi Khawaja Boghraye Jadid Karte Mamorin Prozha Taimani Qala-e- Fatullah Zor Abad Saraye Shamali Khoshal Khan Meena Sera Meena Hawa Shenasi Karte Sakhi Shahrak Pamir
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District
Paghman
Qara Bagh
Chahar Asyab
Mir Bacha Kot
Village Kart-e- Parwan Kart-e-New Nesaji Bagrami Rahman Meena Prozha Jadid Prozha Panjom 315 Cement Khana Deh Dana Dogh Abad Kart-e-se Qalai Shahada Gul Bagh Doda Mast Qala-e- Amir Mohammad Qala-e- Dalil Qala-e- Saqi Shuhoor Khel Sabz Sang Daoud Zai Tamerat Qara Bagh Khair Abad Chahar Sawq Qala-e-Naim Lyaqat Khel Sara-e-Khawaja Khawaja Geyan Baba Qechqar Deh Masti Bala
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District
Makarz Kandahar
Daman
Kandahar
Dand
Panjwaye
Arghendab
Nejrab Kapisa
Markaz (Mahmood Raqi) Hese Awal Kohestan
Khost
Tanaye
Village Chawni Shahr-e-now Loya Wala Mirwais Nika Meena Baiban Dara Abdul Qodos Khan kelai Haji Shah Ghasi Gul Bagh Spen Masjid Haji Tor Kelai Badwan Salawat Haji Besmillah Kelai Nowroz Chahar Bagh Khudayram Kelacha Babur Kelai Nagahan Qaria Badakhshi Qaria Shahrwani Qaria Rozakhel Qaria Ali Khel Qaria Reg Rawan Qaria Khemzargar Qaria Ashtar Gram Segi Daragi Gurbz Sahra
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District Mandozi
Nader Shah Kot Markaz Kunarha (Asad Abad) Kunar
Shaigal wa Sheltan Soki Hazrat Emam Saheb Khan Abad Hazrat Emam Saheb
Kunduz Khan Abad Ali Abad Markaz Kunduz
1
Village Hasan Mohammad Dur Nami Haydar Khel Naw-e- Kot Gedoora Almara Dam Kelai Keer Hala Aman Kot Mula Alam Sheloti Gulmani Massood Arta Buz Haji Sediq Emam Bajori Ha Feroz Kohi Ha Hechkelai Gargari Mozakira Qerghez Janat Bagh Mahajiren Sar Dawra Haji Rais Haji Hafezullah Melraghi1
Replaced by (Sar Dawra) due to security issues and a lack of female surveyors Page 109
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District
Markaz Laghman (Mehtar Lam) Laghman
Markaz Laghman (Mehtar Lam) Qarghaye Markaz Logar (Pul-e-Alam) Khushi
Logar
Mohammad Agha Markaz Logar (Pul-e-Alam) Maidan Shahr
Maidan Wardak
Nerkh
Markaz Behsood Nangarhar 1 2
Markaz Nangarhar (Jelal Abad)
Village Nikpai1 Abdul Wodod Shaheed2 Gameen Pashaye Chahar Dehi Ali Khel Chel Mati Chahar Bagh Kala Kot Honaye Sufla Payen Deh Deh Mohammad Agha Qari Mula Aman Qaria Said Habibullah Bazar Kalangar Sardar Daoud Khan Meena Eslahat Edari Nasir Abad Kanezat Deh Muslim Shah Ghasi Kulah Mir Cheltan Baraki Raqool Nahya Awal Nahya Sewom
Replaced by (Rostaq Abad) due to insecurity / lake of female surveyor Replaced by (Karte Faizabad) due to insecurity / lake of female surveyor Page 110
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District
Koz Kunar (Khewa, Shewa)
Behsood
Surkh Rood
Khogyaani
Dara-e-now
Nimrooz Nooristan Paktia
1
Markaz Nimrooz (Zaranj) Asle chakhansor Markaz Nooristan (Paroon) Wama Markaz Paktia(Gardez)
Village Nahya Chaharom Qaria Lamtak Qaria Akhandzadagan Qaria Kerwonda Qaria Markaz Shewa Qasem Abad Qala-e-Janan Khan Abdyaan Qala-e- Kohna Qaria Do Saraka Qaria Moye Mobarak Ghochak Qala-e-Kharkaran Qaria Lokhi Qaria Arghech Qaria Mamla1 Qaria Kacha Bazar Qaria Amla Qaria Noorkani Qaria Said Gul Kelai Farid Mula Habib Kelai Islamabad Qaria Ma Kaki Pashakaye Islamabad Bagh Peer Shahr Now
replaced by Sakawa village due to a security problem Page 111
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District
Jaji Chamkanaye Ahmad Abad1 Mata Khan Paktika
Yahya khel Khair Kot
Panjsher
Hes-e- Awal (Khenj) Markaz Panjsher Jabulsaraj Said Khel
Parwan Bagram Jabulsaraj
Village Karmashi Shiga Ali Khel Ragha Kelai Ster Kelai Salam Khel2 Esa Khel3 Shah Kulah Koti Khel Saido Kulah Qurb Din Ghaibi Khel Sagana Malizy Safid Chehra4 Rahman Khel Munara Qutub-o-Din Khel Kakah Khel Rahmat Khan Khel Qala-e- Ghulam Shah Sayad Bahadoor Khel Gowhar Khel
Replacements due to security issues and lack of female surveyors Replaced by (Kaskay) 3 Replaced by (Dari Khel) 4 Replaced by Rashkosho because of lack of accessibility for motor vehicles 1 2
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections List of Sample Points Province
District
Markaz Samangan (Aibak) Samangan
Markaz Samangan (Aibak) Feroz Nakhcher Khoram Sarbagh Sancharak Sozma Qala
Sar-e-Pol
Sayad Gosfandi Chah Aab Markaz Takhar (Taleqan)
Takhar
Hazer Somach Chah Aab Baharak
Village Madad Khel Myana Gozar Kart-e-Mamorin Shalkato Tota Wahbash Malakyaan Chahar Asyab Tagzar Chenar Farshqan Gorkab Sufla Karez Afghania Angaskah Bland Ghor Kohna Malakyaan Alty Bhai Aabkhor Gozar Takhan Abad Gozar Ezna Now Abad Khatayan Moqem Nahrchaman Qazaq Saraisang Aq Masjid Besh Kapah Gazan Khawasar Werankhwa Mula Bori Arab Ha
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District Kolfgan Markaz Urozgan (Terenkot)
Urozgan
Khas Urozgan Chora Markaz Zabul Qelat
Zabul
Shanki Tering wa Cheldak (Shahr Safa)
Village Sar Asyab Aqbelaq Zer Shakh Talayee Koshta Karez Kelai Asheer Kelai Bolagh Khosh Khadir Hawa Shinasi Mulayaan Boragaye Foladgaye
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Annex F: Questionnaire (English translation) Questionnaire I.D. Province District Village Starting Point (physical location) Interviewer name Interviewer’s father’s name Year/ Month/ Day Date of interview Interview start time
/ / --:-- AM □ PM □
A. Introduction &explanation for the person who opens the door Please read the following statement to the person who opens the door. a.
Hello, my name is […] and I am conducting a public opinion survey on behalf of the Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan, FEFA. FEFA is an independent Afghan civil society organization. We are collecting answers to this survey from 4,000 people across Afghanistan. We want to know what Afghans think about governance and elections before the 2014 elections. The survey results will be made 100% public and will be distributed through all possible media channels in Afghanistan to inform the Afghan people about public attitudes about political matters in this country.
b.
We are not working for the Afghan government or any foreign organization. Replies to this survey will be treated with strict confidentiality. Nobody will hear from us that you are participating in this survey, or what your replies were.
c.
We would like to interview an adult member of your household who is 18 years of age or older
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Here the interviewer should select a member of the family in accordance with the effort to achieve a balanced representation of age groups, and according to the possibilities offered by the household. After having selected a respondent, if necessary the interviewer reintroduces him/herself (a & b) then says the following: d.
I will ask your opinion about different important issues for this country. It is important for the good results of this survey that your replies be as honest as possible. If you don’t know what to answer just say “I don’t know” and if you don’t want to answer the question just say “I rather not answer this question”. Understood? Instructions:
Texts written in Bold is for you to read it loud for the respondent. Texts written inside medium bracket [ ] in italic are for you to read it with yourself and act on your own. B. Knowledge of FEFA
To start, May I ask you two questions about the Free and Fair Elections Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA)? 1.
Have you ever heard of the Free and Fair Elections Forum of Afghanistan Organization (FEFA)? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option that corresponds to the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes(proceed to question #1.1) No(skip to question #2)
2 1
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1.1.
What is your opinion of Free and Fair Elections Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA)? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Refuse/prefer not to answer
3 2 1 999
C. Demographic questions For statistical purposes, I’ll now ask you some personal questions. 2. Please write respondent’s gender. Male Female
1 2
3.
What is your age? If respondent is not sure of his/her age or refuses to answer, make a guess and record your guess below. Write the age in numerals, not words.
4.
What is your mother tongue? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Pashto Dari Uzbaki Turkmani Balochi Nooristani Pashayee
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Pamiri Other(record answer in this box)
5.
6.
8 997
Refuse/prefer not to answer 999 What is your ethnicity? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Pashtoon Tajik Hazara Uzbek Turkman Baloch Kirgiz Nooristani Aimaq Arab Pashayee Other (record answer in this box)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 997
Refuse/prefer not to answer
999
Are you the head of your household? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes No I don’t Know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 999
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 7.
What is your marital status? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Single 1 Married 2 Widowed 3 Divorced 4 Refuse/prefer not to answer 999
8.
What is your household’s monthly income? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Less than 2,000 Afs 1 2001-5000 Afs 2 5001-20,000Afs 3 20,001-40,000 Afs 4 More than 40000 Afs 5 Refuse/prefer not to answer 999
9.
What is the highest level of education you have completed? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Illiterate 1 Informal education (madrasa/home schooling etc) 2 Primary school (grade1- 6) 3 Secondary school (grade7-9) 4 High School (grade 12) 5 th 14 class pass 6 BA 7 Masters 8 PhD 9 Other(record answer in this box) 997 I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
998 999 Page 119
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 10. What is your employment status? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Private sector (employee, self-employed, business) Civil servant (salary paid by government) Religious or other paid for by community Searching for work / unemployed Not employed because retired Not employed because dependent (ex: housewife, student) Other (record answer in this box)
6 5 4 3 2 1 997
Refuse/prefer not to answer
999
D. General questions about progress and direction of the country 11. Considering economic, social and political developments, would you say that Afghanistan has generally changed for the better or worse in the past decade? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Changed for the better Changed for the worse I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999
12. Has your family’s life changed for the better or worse in this period? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Changed for the better Changed for the worse I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999 Page 120
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 13. Generally speaking, do you think Afghanistan today is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Right direction Wrong direction I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999
E. About the upcoming elections 14. Do you support the idea of elections? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes, I support No, I don’t support I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999
14.1. Let me explain what we mean by free and fair elections:
"Free elections" are: Elections where citizens have the opportunity to vote as they wish.
"Fair elections" are elections: Where election laws are followed, Where candidates have an equal opportunity to run for office and access the public And where votes are counted correctly.
Do you think that recent elections in Afghanistan have been free and fair? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option).
Yes No I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999 Page 121
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 14.2. Do you think that the presidential elections of 2014 will be free and fair? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes No I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999
14.3. Do you think that the provincial council elections of 2014 will be free and fair? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes No I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999
15. Do you intend to vote in the elections of 2014? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Circle the option that corresponds to the respondent’s answer (only circle one option). Yes (proceed to question #15.1) 2 No (skip to question #17) 1 I don’t know/I haven’t yet decided(skip to question #16) 998 Refuse/prefer not to answer(skip to question #16) 999 15.1. How will you choose who to vote for? Read out the first two options below. Do not read the “I don’t know” or “refuse/prefer not to answer” options. Only circle one option. I will make my own choice based on the candidates qualities and program(skip to question #16) I will vote for the person suggested to me(proceed to question #15.2) I don’t know/I haven’t yet decided (skip to question #16) Refuse/prefer not to answer (skip to question #16)
2 1 998 999
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 15.2. Whose advice will you listen to, to determine who to vote for? Do not read the menu of options to the respondent. Circle the option that corresponds to the respondent’s answer (only circle one option). I will follow the advice of my family or friends(skip to question #18) 3 I will follow the advice of a religious leader (skip to question #18) 2 I will follow the advice of a political leader (skip to question #18) 1 Other (record answer below this box) 997 (skip to question #18) I don’t know (skip to question #18) Refuse/prefer not to answer(skip to question #18)
998 999
16. Which qualities are you looking for in the candidate you will vote for? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option(s) that are closest to the respondent’s answer (maximum of three). After you have circled the option, read the option you have circled to the respondent and confirm that your interpretation is accurate. If the respondent’s answer does not correspond to any of the options, write the answer down in “Other”. Somebody with education and experience Somebody who will strengthen democratic participation Somebody who will seek justice and an end to impunity Somebody who can rise above ethnic issues Somebody with good policies/plans for the country Somebody who is a good Muslim/honest person Somebody who has defended the country from her enemies Somebody who improves human rights or women’s rights in the country Somebody with influence and power in society Somebody with a vision and strong leadership Somebody with a kind heart for the poor and weak people in society Somebody who can bring peace and security to this country Other(record answer below this box)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 997
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections I don't know Refuse/prefer not to answer
998 999
17. Why do you not plan to vote in the presidential elections of 2014? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option(s) that are closest to the respondent’s answer (maximum of three). After you have circled the option, read the option you have circled to the respondent and confirm that your interpretation is accurate. If the respondent’s answer does not correspond to any of the options, write the answer down in “Other”. I’m not registered to vote/I don’t have a voter’s card I am not interested in elections/my vote does not make a difference I don’t have enough information about voting and elections
1 2 3
I think the elections will be fraudulent I think there will be a lack of facilities at the polling station I think the polling station will be too far from my home Candidates and parties will not have good policies Candidates will not be qualified
4 5 6 7 8
Candidates will be corrupt/self-interested Candidates are supported by/linked to foreign powers There are too many candidates/political parties
9 10 11
Elections are haram Insecurity Fear of the Taliban I won’t be in the place I’m registered to vote Other(record answer below this box)
12 13 14 15 997
I don't know I prefer not to say
998 999
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 18. What are the top 3 issues of importance for which you would like presidential candidates to focus on in the 2014 elections? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option(s) that are closest to the respondent’s answer (maximum of three). After you have circled the option, read the option you have circled to the respondent and confirm that your interpretation is accurate. If the respondent’s answer does not correspond to any of the options, write the answer down. Peace (end to war, insecurity, violence, conflict in society) Justice (crime, impunity, corruption, appointments…) The economy (unemployment, poverty, development…) The political system (governance, constitution, parliamentary system, presidential powers, civil service reform…) Foreign relations (stopping interference from external actors, participation in international community…) Education Health care Infrastructure (electricity, roads, drinkable water, sewers…) Agricultural reform (land reform, irrigation, improving access to markets…) Moral/spiritual values (strengthening Islam, defending traditions, improving the mentalities of the youth…) Other (record answer below this box) Don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 997 998 999
19. Do you believe it is important to increase the participation of women voters of your community in the upcoming elections? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Circle the option that corresponds to the respondent’s answer (only circle one option). Yes (proceed to question #19.1) No (skip to question #19.2) I don’t know (proceed to question #19.1)
2 1 998
Refuse/prefer not to answer (skip to question #20)
999
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19.1. What do you believe could be done to increase the turnout of women voters in your community in the upcoming 2014 elections? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option(s) that are closest to the respondent’s answer (maximum of three). After you have circled the option, read the option you have circled to the respondent and confirm that your interpretation is accurate. If the respondent’s answer does not correspond to any of the options, write the answer down in “Other”.
Locate polling stations close to women’s homes Provide separate facilities for women at polling stations with female staff Locate polling stations in secure areas Locate polling stations in culturally appropriate areas Ensure polling stations have female police officers Promote public awareness of women’s right to vote/cultural change to allow women to vote Increase the number of female candidates Increase the quotas for female MPs Other (record answer below this box)
1 2 3 4 5 6
I Don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
998 999
7 8 997
19.2. Why do you think it is not necessary to increase the turnout of women voters in your community? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Circle the option that corresponds to the respondent’s answer (only circle one option).
Women have enough opportunities to vote Women are not eligible/don’t have enough knowledge to vote According to Islam it is Haram for women to vote Culturally, women should not participate in elections Other (record answer below this box)
4 3 2 1 997
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
998 999
20. Do you think foreign countries, foreign organizations or international organizations will influence the 2014 elections? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes (proceed to question #20.1) 2 No (skip to question #20.2) 1 I don’t know(skip to question #20.2) 998 Refuse/prefer not to answer(skip to question #20.2) 999 20.1. What foreign countries, foreign organizations or international organizations will have the most influence on the 2014 elections? You can list up to five, starting with the most important. Write the list of foreign countries, foreign organizations or international organizations in the box below. Do not write down name of individual persons.
Foreign countries, foreign organizations or international organizations
Ranking 5 4 3 2 1
20.2. What do you think the appropriate role is of foreign countries, foreign organizations or international organizations in the 2014 elections? Read the menu of options below to the respondent and circle the option(s) that correspond with the respondent’s answers (maximum of three). However, you should not read the “I don’t know” or “refuse/prefer not to answer” options.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Funding the election process Monitoring the transparency of elections Providing security for elections Political support for elections Advocacy/public awareness campaigns Technical support/capacity building They should not be involved I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 998 999
Now I want to ask you some questions about electoral system 21. Who do you think is primarily responsible for organizing the Afghan elections? Open-ended question, only one answer can be given
22. Who do you think handles the grievances during the elections, such as accusations of voter registration fraud, ballot box fraud and vote counting fraud? Open-ended question, only one answer can be given
23. How high is your confidence in the Independent Election Commission as an institution? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). High Moderate Low I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
3 2 1 998 999
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 24. How high is your confidence in the Independent Election Complaints Commission as an institution? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). High Moderate Low I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
3 2 1 998 999
F. Attitudes towards democracy 25. Do you support a system of government where the courts operate independently and cannot be influenced by money or political power? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Support 2 Do not support 1 I don’t know 998 Refuse/prefer not to answer 999 25.1. Do you think that in some cases influential or powerful people should have the right to control the courts? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes 2 No 1 I don’t know 998 Refuse/prefer not to answer 999 25.2. Do you think that the Afghan courts currently operate independently and are not controlled by influential or powerful people? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option).
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Yes, they are independent No, they are controlled by powerful people I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999
26. Do you support Afghan citizens’ right to demonstrate when they do not agree with a government decision? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes I support No I don’t support I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999
26.1. Do you think that in some cases the government should have the right to punish citizens for demonstrating? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes 2 No 1 I don’t know 998 Refuse/prefer not to answer 999 26.2. Do you think that Afghan citizens can demonstrate without fear of government punishment? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes 2 No 1 I don’t know 998 Refuse/prefer not to answer 999 27. Do you support the principle that powerful individuals and institutions must operate according to the laws of the country? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option).
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Support Against I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999
27.1. Do you think that in some cases powerful and influential people should have the right not to follow the laws of the country? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes 2 No 1 I don’t know 998 Refuse/prefer not to answer 999 27.2. Do you think that powerful individuals and institutions operate according to the laws of the country? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Yes 2 No 1 I don’t know 998 Refuse/prefer not to answer 999 28. Do you support the principle of a media that is free to criticize the government or other individuals, organizations or institutions in society? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Support 2 Against 1 I don’t know 998 Refuse/prefer not to answer 999 28.1. Do you think that in some cases, the media should not have the right to criticize the government or other individuals, organizations or institutions in society? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). Page 131
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Yes No I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999
28.2. Do you think that the media is free to criticize the government or other individuals, organizations or institutions in society? Do not read the menu of options below to the respondent. Ask this question and circle the option of the respondent’s choice (only circle one option). yes No I don’t know Refuse/prefer not to answer
2 1 998 999
H. Concluding statements 29. Thank you for answering the questions in this questionnaire. Would you like me to read all the questions and the replies to you again, for your verification? The respondent cannot change his/her replies, only verify that s/he indeed said what s/he did say. Yes (re-read entire questionnaire to respondent to check responses) No
2 1
30. Do you agree to leave your telephone option so somebody from our organization can call you and verify that you participated in this questionnaire and gave these answers? Yes: Please write down the number. # No
Interview end time
2 1
--:-- AM □ PM □
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Annex G: International Experts Questionnaire: We requested the input of about 20 international experts; six of them responded: Questions asked, based on the preliminary findings of the report The current survey of international experts is the last phase in FEFA’s survey effort. We will present you with some of the preliminary findings from the public opinion survey, contrasted where relevant with findings from the focus groups and the Afghan expert interviews. Please answer as many questions as possible; you are free to focus on issues you are most familiar with and skip the occasional question when you think you have nothing specific to reply. All replies can be given in free form. We will respect the anonymity of all your statements and contributions. In case we feel we should quote you, we will request your authorization, and if you give it, we’ll send the excerpts where you are named for your review before publication of the final report. 1. Optimism versus Pessimism 85% of the surveyed believes that the general situation in Afghanistan and their own family’s life has improved over the past ten years; yet when asked whether Afghanistan is currently moving in the right direction, the percentage drops to 68%. How do you interpret this data, with your knowledge of Afghanistan now and over the past decade? 2: Will the 2014 elections be free and fair? 45% of the surveyed believes that recent elections were free and fair (against 36% who believe they weren’t), yet only 25% believes that the upcoming presidential elections will be free and fair (against 43% who believes they won’t). How would you explain this swing of opinion? 3. Support for elections and intention to vote A remarkable 92% of the surveyed say they support the idea of elections; of the 22% who declare they do not intend to vote, more than 75% mention logistical issues (e.g. not having a voters card) as their principal reason. Afghan experts are much more negative about the foundations and prospects of
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections electoral democracy in Afghanistan, mentioning legal, political, institutional, logistical, cultural, and security concerns. How do you interpret this data? 4. Electoral emancipation Afghan and external experts generally believe that patronage networks and the opinions of religious leaders largely decide the voting patterns of the Afghan population. Insofar the elections are free and fair, this opinion seems to be substantiated by the results of past elections, where local strongmen gain a large share of the vote in the districts where they are powerful. However, when asked whether they would follow the advice of others, or make their own choice based on the candidates’ qualities and programs, less than 10% of those who had stated their intention to vote in the upcoming elections said they would follow the advice of others; and of this group, only 11% said they would follow the advice of a political leader (30 on a total of 4040 surveyed), 20% that they would listen to a religious leader (54 of all surveyed), and 69% that they would follow the advice of family or friends. How would you explain this discrepancy between the views of experts and past election results, and the responses of those surveyed, on the electoral emancipation of the Afghans? Please elaborate. 5. Issues of importance to the electorate, and values sought after in candidates For these two questions the respondents were allowed to choose three issues/qualities or formulate their own (‘other’). Peace, education, the economy and justice rate highest among the issues respondents consider important for the 2014 elections; least important are the implementation of sharia, care for the disadvantaged, foreign relations and agricultural reform. The political system, including governance and democracy, also score low on the list of important issues. The most sought after qualities in candidates are education & experience, personal honesty and religious ethics and a determination to seek justice and end impunity. Least mentioned qualities in candidates are influence and power, vision & leadership and proactive democratic attitudes. How would you interpret these results in light of your own knowledge of the aspirations and politics of Afghans? What implications can be drawn for the focus of international involvement in the Afghan political landscape? Page 134
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections 6. Role of foreign organizations Question 6, on the role of foreign organizations, was removed because FEFA found out that there had been a problem with the initial coding, meaning that the question we submitted was based on the wrong data. The correction was of course made and applied in this report. 7. Security a relatively minor issue Among the Afghans surveyed, current levels of insecurity are generally not seen as an important obstacle to participation in the elections. As pointed out in the table under question 3, only between 5 and 8 % of them mention they will not vote because of insecurity or fear of Taliban reprisals. Moreover, as seen under question 5, less than 15% of respondents favor candidates whose main qualities are that they are in a position to deliver security. Insecurity is rather seen as a factor allowing fraud and discouraging the participation of women. Some members of the focus groups also noted that the current electoral process, with its emphasis on ethnicity, fans the flames of conflict. Less than 4% (see question 6) of the surveyed wish foreigners, including NATO, to be involved in the provision of security for the elections. Insecurity is often seen, among Afghan and international experts, as one of the main impediments to electoral participation, and it is sometimes assumed that Afghans wish to be ruled by strongmen. What lessons, if any, can be extracted from the survey data for the focus on security in Afghan politics? 8. Functioning of the IEC and the IECC Afghan experts and participants in the provincial focus groups agree that the IEC and the IECC are necessary institutions, but their views about how these organizations function are negative. The main criticisms formulated in the interviews and focus groups concern the selection of the commissioners, government interference in their work, lack of power and capacity (especially of the IECC), that both commissions don’t work according to their own principles and regulations, and that they unfairly influence the outcome of the elections – in short, that they are not independent. Among the surveyed population, when asked who organizes the elections / handles the complaints, less than half knew the correct answer, many assuming the President or the State have this role:
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Overall, do you think the shortcomings of the IEC and the IECC risk delegitimizing the results of the 2014 elections? What are your own main concerns and appraisals regarding these electoral institutions? 9. Attitudes towards Democratic Principles: The Independence of Courts At the end of the survey, the attitudes of Afghans regarding the basic tenets of a democratic system were examined. Each question stating the principle was followed by a ‘control question’ regarding exceptions to this principle; and then the surveyed were asked what their appraisal of the current situation was. This first question concerns the independence of the judicial system. Among the surveyed only 21% believe that courts currently operate independently, while 87% believe that they should do so. However, when asked whether powerful people have the right to control the courts, only 68% reply by the negative. Why? 10. Attitudes towards Democratic Principles: Media Freedom While 66% of the surveyed Afghans believe that the media is currently free, and 81% support the principle of a free media, only 47% believe in an unconditional type of media freedom; 36% believe that in some cases, this freedom must be curtailed. What does this say about Afghan media, and popular understanding of media freedom?
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About This Report This report was produced by the RASERA team within FEFA:
Safiullah Elham, Project Coordinator
Ahmad Wais Hedayat, Senior Researcher
Nasrullah Mahmoodi, Data Analyst
Mohammad Aqil Azad, Data Analyst
Mohammad Hadi, Researcher
Raheda Hakim, Assistant Data Analyst
Hosai Dawlatzai, Assistant Data Analyst
Robert Kluijver, Analyst & Report Writer
With the support of
Stephen Berson
Weeda Mehran and
Nematullah Bizhan
Under the supervision of
Ahmad Nader Nadery, Chairman of FEFA
Thanks also to Asad Farzan, Marzia Faraz, Ehsan Rashidi, Habib and many other members of FEFA who contributed in finalizing this report.
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Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections Copyright Š Free and Fair Election Forum of Afghanistan, 2014. All rights reserved. You may use, reproduce and quote from this report without restrictions as long as you attribute the information to make no commercial use of it without FEFA’s prior consent.
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Afghanistan Provincial and Regional map
Afghan Perceptions on Democracy & Elections