“F*** knows. I’m past caring. It’s like the living dead in here.” - Unnamed cabinet member BBC Newsnight.
Brexit…. The laughing stock of the world. How did it come to be that the United Kingdom got itself into such a mess in its plans to leave the European Union? A country that has managed to rip itself apart and become a divided nation. The UK joined the European Union in 1973 with the endorsement of the single market and free movement for its member states. David Cameron then conservative prime minister concerned with growing Euroscepticism in his party called for a referendum on the UK’s European Union membership status. On June 23, 2016, the UK
DonkeyHotey Theresa May - Caricature
government held a referendum in which a majority of those who voted chose to leave the European Union. The UK has voted to leave the EU by 52% to 48%. Leave won the majority of votes in England and Wales, while every council in Scotland saw Remain majorities. The vote had one of the highest turnouts with 72%. 29 March 2017 The Prime Minister formally triggered Article 50 in writing to European Council President Donald Tusk. This began the two year countdown to Brexit. The UK had expected to leave the European Union at 11 pm on March 29. Following a House of Commons vote on 14 March 2019, the government requested permission for the European Union to extend Article 50. The European Council agreed to an extension to Article 50 on May 22, 2019. The extension granted the UK until April 12. On April 2 Theresa May announced she would seek a further extension to the Article 50 process. Theresa May also offered to meet the Leader of the Opposition to agree on a deal that can win the support of MPs. No member of the European Union has ever withdrawn from the union. With more than 40 years of membership, the European Union has shaped Britain’s way of life, society and culture. The divorce deal has been almost three years in the making and the Prime Minister Theresa May negotiated a deal with the European Union, the deal, however, has been stalled in parliament being consistently voted against. The deal
and Mrs May have seen significant criticism. In Prime Ministers Questions (PMQ) Peter Bone Conservative MP for Wellingborough said, “In February 2017 this house voted by a majority of 384 to trigger Article 50…. Prime Minister, if you continue to apply for an extension to Article 50 you will be betraying the British People. If you don’t, you will be honouring their Peter Bone MP - UK.GOV instruction”
DonkeyHotey Jeremy Corbyn - Caricature
A Divided Nation Brexit has created conflict at the heart of the UK’s democracy. In the 2016 referendum, voters chose by a narrow majority to leave the European Union. The House of Commons is largely pro-EU but the conservative party majority take an anti-EU stance. One million people marched in London on Sunday 24 March demanding a new ‘peoples vote’. Groups like Nigel Farage’s Leave means leave campaign marched from across the country towards London in smaller numbers.
Whats The Deal? Theresa May’s deal is in two parts. The ‘deal’ itself is actually a withdrawal agreement with the European Union that sets out how much the UK owes the European Union, and what rights citizens of the UK living the European Union and what rights citizens of the European Union living in the UK will have. The agreement includes a ‘backstop’ which is intended to stop a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Any hard border in Ireland is a serious concern for all parties involved due to the risk of threatening peace on the island. May’s deal establishes a period of transition that would cover retaining much of the status quo, keeping much of the UK rights and obligations and a member of the European Union. However the country loses its vote in European Union matters, this would last until the end of 2020 although could be extended for a further two years. The second part of May’s deal is a political declaration, laying out Britain’s future relationship with the
One million march on London - Independent
European Union. The withdrawal agreement has been rejected three times by the House of Commons by a large majority. This is largely due to opposition from Eurosceptics, who object to the backstop. Europhiles also vote against the deal due to worries about the consequences of a sharp break with the European Union. The European Union has called an emergency summit for April 10 just two days before the new deadline, to decide if they will grant a further delay or go ahead with a no-deal Brexit. Mrs May hopes MPs will eventually
How Does It End? approve her deal, despite the fact they have already voted it down three times. May has now announced she will seek Labour support to get the exit agreement through in return for compromises that could soften Brexit in the long terms. If these talks break down May is still hoping MPs will opt for her deal. In next week’s European Union summit May is expected to ask for a long delay. May wants the UK to terminate this extension if an when parliament finally backs her deal, but
there is no guarantee that European Union will grant any further extension and force the UK into a no-deal Brexit situation. This option is not what May wants due to the financial implications to the UK market and economy. However, a no-deal Brexit is now favoured by a majority of the MPs in May’s own party. The European Commission also says it looks increasingly likely. The final option is, the UK could revoke the Article 50 exit process altogether. May has vowed she would not do this, she has also vowed 108 times in the Commons that the UK would have left the European Union on March 29. No matter the outcome of any vote the UK has been deeply divided by Brexit.
Article 50 - Global Business Outlook
What Next? Theresa May has written to the European Union Council to ask for a further delay to Brexit until 30 June. Under May’s proposal, Brexit could still happen earlier if a deal is decided upon before that date. The emergency European Union summit will be held on April 10 just two days before Brexit’s current scheduled date. Ministers are also holding talks with Labour leaders to attempt to find a deal. If they can agree to a deal MPs will be given a chance to vote on the deal. If not, a range of alternative options will be put to them instead. In either case, May says the negotiated withdrawal agreement would remain unchanged. There are still several options instead of a no-deal Brexit. No Deal: A no-deal Brexit is still a likely outcome. If MPs can’t agree to anything else and there are no further extensions the UK will be forced to leave the European Union without a deal, this could be catastrophic for the UK’s economy. Theresa May’s deal: Despite repeated rejections of May’s deal, it has not been fully ruled out. If a compromise cannot be agreed with the Labour leader, and if there is no majority among MPs for an alternative, it remains a possibility. In the event of a longer Brexit delay, the negotiated deal could come back at a later date as a way of allowing an early exit. If negotiations with the European Union or any alternative plan cannot be resolved the two sides could return to one deal that has been fully worked out. Major Renegotiation: The government could decide they want to negotiate a completely new Brexit deal. There could be a complete renegotiation that could take another couple of years or longer. It would require a long delay to Brexit and the UK would have to take part in the European Parliament elections in May. If the European Union could refuse to re-enter negotiations and the government would have no choice but to choose one of the other options. New Referendum:
Theresa May could trigger another referendum. It could have the same status as the 2016 referendum which was legally non-binding and just an advisory referendum. However, some MPs would like a new legally binding referendum where the result would take effect automatically. No Brexit: The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit. Theresa May has made it clear she is still committed to Brexit, it’s very likely that a major event such as a further referendum or change of government would have to happen before such a move. Any further delay to Brexit would lead to questions about whether the ultimate destination was going to be a reversal of the 2016 referendum. Other possibilities: Theresa May has said if her Brexit deal is passed she will step down as prime minister. May has already survived a challenge to her leadership and there is no way she can be forced out until December under current Conservative Party rules. May could however still choose to resign if the commons decide not to allow her deal through. That would trigger a Conservative Party leadership campaign which would lead to the appointment of a new prime minister. May might also be pressured to resign if MPs pass a ‘censure motion’ that could be similar to a no-confidence vote but without the same automatic consequences. This could lead to a change in prime minister or possibly even a change in government. Whoever ends up in charge would still face the same range of Brexit options. The government did not propose any changes to the PMs Brexit deals during cross-party talks on April 5. Meetings have been taking place between Tory and Labour politicians to find a proposal put to the commons before the emergency European summit on April 10. May is now looking for a plan for the
future relationship with the European Union that will work for both sides of the House of Commons. May has come under fire for the approach of attempting to appease the house and has been accused of ignoring the public will to hold another vote or cancel Brexit all together. The one million who marched into London to protest Brexit say the public was not informed of the outcomes of Brexit and insist May’s deal is not what the public voted for. What happens after Brexit?
What happens after Brexit? Depending on what kind of Brexit the UK opts for there are several things that could happen. If there is no deal with the European Union, there will likely be disruption at ports as officials contend with confusing customs documentation, standards, checks and tariffs. Stricter border controls will take their toll on the UK’s economy. The transition period would likely last at least 20 months and companies would likely base investment decisions on their expectations about the UK’s prospects after Brexit which could severely affect the UK’s economy.