SEA LEVEL RISE & ADAPTIVE URBANISM
THE BIGGER PICTURE 20,000 years ago
• 650 million people affected by 2050 • Sea level is in constant change
WHAT THE SCIENTISTS EXPECT... 200 180 Sea Level Change (cm)
160 140
A1FI
120
A2
100
B1
80 60 40
AR4
20 0 -20 1950
2000
2050
2100
Year
Figure 16: Sea-level change 1970-2010
Fig. 6. Projection of sea-level rise from 1990 to 2100, based on IPCC temperature projections for three different emission scenarios (labeled on righ Projections of Future Sea Level for explanation of uncertainty ranges). The sea-level range projected in the IPCC AR4 (2) for these scenarios is show comparison in the bars on the bottom right. Also shown is the observations-based annual global sea-level data (18) (red) including artificial reservoir corre TOPEX, J1, and J2 (22). http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/ 1992.96 – 2011.93
atures in the various emission scenarios are still close together in which is our key difference to the IPCC AR4 (2), where the first half of the century. The second term in Eq. 2 furtherice-melt share is assumed to diminish with thermal expan more implies a time lag, so that emissions reductions (as in contributing between 55% and 70% of the total sea-level rise scenario B1) only slow down sea-level rise after more than a the 21st century. decade delay. These results suggest that emissions reductions Discussion: Implications for the Future early in this century will be much more effective in limiting If our method presents a reasonable approximation of the fu sea-level rise than reductions later on. This effect can be seen sea-level response to global warming, then for a given emi when comparing scenarios A1B and A2, which produce the same scenario sea level will rise approximately three times as muc sea-level rise by 2100 despite A1B being 0.8 °C cooler then. This 2100 as the projections (excluding rapid ice flow dynamics) o result is caused by A1B being slightly warmer early on in the 21st IPCC AR4 (2) have suggested. Even for the lowest emi century. scenario (B1), sea-level rise is then likely to be 1 m; fo Another interesting aspect of these projections is that the highest, it may even come closer to 2 m. thermal share in the rate of sea-level rise declines over the 21st NOAA/Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry Uncertainties remain, however. While the thermal ex century, if we take the parameters (a, b) fitted to the climate sion response has been tested on simulated data, it is less model simulation above to represent thermal expansion. For whether the information contained in the 120 years of ob the period 1961–2003, the thermal share is 30%, as compared -10 in the -8AR4 (2)-6and 40%-4by Domingues -2 4 the ice response 6 10to describ is8 sufficient with 25% estimated et 0 vational2data about level (mm/yr) future ice-melt contribution out to the year 2100. The al. (24). In our projection it gradually declines toSea 20% in thetrends question then is: will the ice-melt response observed so fa latter half of the 21st century and is directly linked to the fact captured in our dual model, overestimate or underestim that thermal expansion is associated with positive b while total
OPTION 1 BARRICADE
Hanseatic Trade Centre, Hamburg, Germany
• 120,000 m² of offices outside the dikes • Forerunner of the largest European urban development • Each building fortified against assumed disaster water level • Ground levels closed - elevated egress gangway system • Connects with the safe CBD of Hamburg
OPTION 2 CONCRETE
Hard Engineering/Sea Walls, Holland
CONCRETE (CONT.D)
“The masters and possessors of nature.“ - Rene Descartes (1637)
Foster + Partners
The Thames Hub Project
“If we are to establish a modern transport and energy infrastructure in Britain, we need to recapture the foresight and political courage of our 19th century forebears and draw on our traditions of engineering, design and landscape.” - Lord Norman Foster (2011)
OPTION 3 RETREAT 1mm increase p/a
Sea Level Rise - Impact on Marsh Areas 10mm increase p/a
Undisturbed marsh
10mm increase p/a
10mm increase p/a
5% vegetation disturbed and reduced sediment supplies 50% vegetation disturbed Duke University
RETREAT (CONT.D)
East Anglia, UK
RETREAT (CONT.D)
New Orleans, USA
2008: 4% of the city is wetlands, 5% is water
2050: 26% of the city is wetlands, 24% is water Morphosis Architects
OPTION 3 RESILIENCE Adaptive Response
Princeton University
New York City, New Jersey and Palisade Bay: Soft Infrastructure aims for resilience to, not fortification against, the impact of sea level rise.
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
Princeton University
Artificial Islands
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
Princeton University
Artificial Islands
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
Princeton University
Break Water Towers
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
Princeton University
Islands Array Technique
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
Princeton University
Softened Coast Line
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
University of Auckland
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
University of Auckland
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
University of Auckland
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
University of Auckland
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
Floating Settlements
• Water dwellings in Amsterdam, Netherlands • 60 Units, Homes & Social Housing
Architecten Bureau - Marlies Rohmer
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
University of Auckland
RESILIENCE (CONT.D) City propagated with office gardens
Office gardens spawn delta robotic ‘lifts, which start to fabricate using plant matter
Delta robot gardens flock producing a green network in the sky University of Auckland
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
University of Auckland
RESILIENCE (CONT.D)
University of Auckland
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
The possible impact of sea level rise on the Draft Waterfront Plan
The possible impact of sea level rise on the Draft Waterfront Plan
Possible Measures
WESTHEAVEN RESIDENTIAL ZONE
Reclaim
ed Land
WYNYARD QUARTER ZONE
VIADUCT ZONE
CBD ZONE
Boundar
y
Wat er
fron
t Bo
ulev
ard
Pt Erin Park
e Av
enu
e
Fore s
hor
eet
e Av
Victoria Park
n Str
hor
Quee
Fore s
WESTHEAVEN RESIDENTIAL ZONE
Reclaim
ed Land
Boundary
Waterf
ron
t Bou
levard
Pt Erin Park
WYNYARD QUARTER ZONE
VIADUCT ZONE
CBD ZONE
Albert Park
enu
e
WESTHEAVEN RESIDENTIAL ZONE
Reclaim
ed Land
Bounda
ry
Wat er
fron
t Bou
leva
rd
Pt Erin Park
Fore
shor
e Av
enue
BRIDGE+ AGRICULTURE + ACTIVITIES
“Crisis is the perception of those who refuse to adapt.”
SEA LEVEL RISE & ADAPTIVE URBANISM