Mobile 2020

MOBILE 2020

THE FUTURE OF MOBILE IN 2020

Dear reader, Science fiction fans will know what is meant by the final frontier, in Star Trek Enterprise the crew of the ship is expanding the known universe in search of new discoveries. However, even they do not know what will happen in the next six years of their journey, making time a key uncertainty for any vernture.

In this magazine we have explored the future of the mobile device by looking at past and current events to be able to extrapolate into the unknown tomorrow.

In Media content witness how it will engulf our daily lives even more. On page 6, Social Networks are expextet to become as normal as breakfast, building on current trends. One of the most interesting and evenly unpredictable futures is how will technology look like, we believe that quantum leaps can be taken her, but many challenges lie ahead. On page 10-13 Services and Virtual are looked at, both will focus increasingly on online and on-thego solutions. Another pusher for change is the Mobile Economy, growing increasingly rapid it will surely cause shockwaves in our lives as we know it today. And last but not least, what are future scenario’s and their key uncertainties?

Every positive change can have a negative side effect and we will show you how.

Included in the magazine are various examples of advertisements of the past future, especially BOHN’s 1940’s ads give an amazing glimpse into a future that this company thought would be real.

Thank you for reading and we hope you enjoy!

INDEX

Media content in 2020...............................4 Social networks in 2020............................6 Technology drives change.......................8 Mobile and Services...................................10 Mobile and Virtual......................................12 The Mobile Economy.................................14 Scenarios and Key Uncertainties.....18 Bibliography...................................................20 Commisioned by Hogeschool Utrecht International Communication & Media

Course Media Trends Class JIC-B303 Students Bryan Kuiper.......1585076 Ginta Kupse........1584474 Allan Rajavee......1642567 Rolf Tjalsma.........1559859 Cover photo Igor Kovalchuk/Shutterstock)

Media content in T

2020

oday, virtual content is not chained to your PC or laptop anymore. Since 2007 there has been a rapid growth amongst users of mobile devices. This means that the virtual content which was once on the screens of our PC or laptops has to change with the coming of the mobile age. This change will also affect the content which is provided in our laptops. For example the new Windows 8 operating system desktop is looking more like a tablet desktop than a PC desktop. Therefore all signs show that we are moving to new bright handheld future but what content will these screen show us? Even more importantly how will this new mobile media content change our everyday lifestyle? ample, Apple has made efforts to The future applications will not reach the lower class market by be specifically in your device but making cheaper versions of their situate in so-called “cloud”. This iPhone and iPad. Most older demeans that the content will be vices can run newer software and reachable for the user anywhere, therefore a technological gap beany time and any place as long he tween different social classes is or she is connected to the net- dissolving. This influences also the work. This means that there will content. If the device is not that be a shift away from the devices exclusive anymore then the contoward services (Gartner, 2013). tent will have to serve a broader There will be no central device but spectrum of potential users. an array of devices. Devices itself will go cheaper because the num- But if there will be a lot of users ber of technological solutions will then it will be merely impossigrow (News&Tech, 2012). For ex- ble to satisfy everybody’s needs.

User in the focus

Therefore applications must adapt and be personalizable (Gunelius,2013). There are already some news readers on the market that have content filters on them.

This trend will grow also to other areas of technology for example in social networks. Also with the personalization comes the location (Gunelius, 2013). Users want content that is relevant to them so many social networking apps are moving towards geosocial networking format where you can see who is around you and what they are doing. Furthermore, there will

be no language barriers while being in the network because all the data will be automatically translated. We can see the first version of this in Google Chrome which works in some extent but still on 100 per cent. All of these advancements will impact the media producers who are struggling to stay up-to-date.

Changing content news media

“Users wants per-

sonalized advertisements, but don’t want marketers looking at their daily purchases” (Hof, 2012)

and individual glory for themselves as

The most ageing media content providers are the news media groups and especially print media.

Adapting with the new type of content formats has been thought because most of the new generation of news readers were grew up in the age where all the information was available for free. Furthermore, the news brands have hard time to maintain their reporters because the new age content is personalized, that means the journalist are moving to the blogs and Twitter. As a reaction to this process some news outlets have

“It will be impossible to satisfy everybody’s needs, therefore applications must adapt and be personalizable” (Gunelius, 2013) set in the social media policies for their employees (Sivek, 2010).

This means that the face of the news content will change forever and in 2020 we will see more news content providers in the market than ever before. On one hand its positive future for the journalists as individuals who can gain some

opinion leaders. At the other hand we may see the demise of the professional journalism and the disappearance of the professional news content because it will be hard to filter out professional journalists from self-proclaimed ones because the will disappear to the “noise” created by blog based civilian journalism.

Personal 24/7 advertising dialogue

Another wide spread content, which is gaining from the mobile revolution, is advertising. In the future the advertising will be more personalized as all the other content. At the same time the users are a bit frightful of the future because it has become more relevant that marketers are peeking into our personal lives. The paradox is that users want to have personalized advertisements which are relevant just for them but at the same time they don’t want marketers researching their social media account or looking at their daily purchases in internet (Hof, 2012).

Marketers themselves are striving for more dialogue with their customers and call it content marketing. For example one of the world’s leading brands Coca-Cola sees that they should increase the number of their advertising messages because by 2020 their client’s will be connected 24/7. This

new type of marketing means that advertising wouldn’t be only one way dialogue with the client but two way creative process which will make the brand more approachable to everybody (Watts, 2011). Therefore the main issue for the advertiser is how to gain access to their clients everyday lives but not scare the customer away.

Social s k r o w t e n in 2020

Social media is one of the biggest keywords in media future. Right now social networking is the most popular online activity that three billion people perform every day and it is predicted that by 2020 the number will increase to five billion connected to

some form of social networking (Digits, 2013). At the same time the future is not so bright for those brands who lead the market today. There has been signs of social media fatigue where users under 30 are saying they do not want to be that much con-

nected anymore (Digits, 2013). Therefore the average user is looking forward to something new, smarter and more user based.

The Social network of the future There are a lot of predictions about what will happen in the future of social media but two characteristics is the common

for all of them – social media will be smarter and more dominant.

Internet as we know it will disappear by 2020 and it will be taken over by social media. There will be no point of managing static homepages by the companies. A person’s success in the job market will depend purely on their social network status in the new virtual society (Society3, 2013).

Location is everything

By 2020 the data production has increased through the roof. If the methods of social networking stay the same then the “noise” level that this excessive data will produce can drive users away from the social networking sites.

Therefore, users want more personalized networks which provide location based information which

will filter out excessive clutter data. This has been recognized also by the social media developers who are right now updating or creating their applications which include those capabilities. More important in this case is that most of these new apps are based on mobile platforming (Wekho, 2013).

In the future your mobile device will be an irreplaceable aid which will help you navigate through problems like: Where to eat?

Who to speak with? Is this a good shop to get into? (Wekho, 2013).

Users will get even more reliant on their handheld devices. For example, use of search engines via mobile devices has grown over 500% since the year 2011 (Orta, 2013), but at the same time the geosocial networking applications market is booming but it has not reached its capacity yet. Currently, there is no clear frontrunner on the market. Therefore, it can be said that this is the future market that every developer is aiming for today. It is the definition of a smart and user-based way of social networking.

Social network of society

Before mentioned visions of the future show that there will be two dimensions in our daily life – real society and the virtual society. The last one will be more important because there you can accomplish yourself in a professional level. By that time the con-

Social networking will become so intertwined with real life it will be implemented in every facet of our lives. Thus, choosing not to use social networking will have dire results on one's personal life.

cept of the historical office place will no longer exist. Furthermore, the democratic system of voting (as we can see in the case of the Estonian e-voting system that has been already used for multiple elections) and social dialogue will move into virtual online communities (Society3, 2013).

Governments and social media

How will all of these changes be tolerated by the legislators? Every type of society needs rules and it is highly unlikely that governments will give their power to network administrators. One can also see a clear balancing mechanism within society – if more users are integrated through technology to social networks then more legislation will be created to protect the users’ privacy.

The Wikileaks case and SnowdenPrism scandal has shown that governments are very concerned about the data which is moving through social networks and they want to find the way to regulated and control it. The main question for them is – how to do it so it would not infringe the basic rights of the service provides or the users ( Zavattaro, 2013)?

But as we know, the post 9/11 governmental system has adopted Benjamin Franklin’s famous thought - to maintain some security we have to give up some privacy. The future could not be as open as we think because the social network providers will have to go through a gauntlet of international and local laws to provide the service to the people. Are users ready to give up their privacy and help social networks become the main interaction medium which a person will use in 2020?

e g n a ch

Technology drives

Together with nanotechnology (See next paragraph) cloud computing can bring many unbelievable changes that make our lives, as simple consumers of devices, much easier.

On the mobile front however, nanotechnology will change everything. By 2020, mobile devices will be introduced which can morph, from watch to phone and even extend to a tablet sized apparatus. Nanotech is also superhydrophic, which causes the surface to clean itself whenever it is dirty.

On top of that, whatever the type of device, it can charge itself with very little lighting, wind, or even

According to Gizmodo graphene can cause two shock waves on the mobile technology front. Firstly, when a silicon power cell is coated with graphene it can charge in minutes and stay charged for weeks on end. Silicon power cells are already used in phones of today, the difference is that they are not used to store energy because scientist had not found an efficient way to do this. (Clark, Adam (1))

Reading about the history of humankind is reading about its technology. Arguably the only age where things went backwards were the middle ages, but ever since technology has pushed us forwards. The Law of Accelerating Returns, coined by Ray Kurzweil, (Singularity) suggests that we develop exponentially as opposed to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. This means that, according to Kurzweil, our technology in the 21st century will drive us 20.000 years forward in only a 100 years. (Kurzweil, Ray)

Nanotechnology

Another interesting idea by Kurzweil is the technological singularity, or just singularity. As proposed by him, we will “evolve beyond our understanding through the use of technology”. In his future robots will do the thinking for us, for better or worse. He is careful to mention the much-feared Terminator scenario, according to him this is not going to happen. At least not soon. (Strickland, Jonathan)

This mind-blowing technology can change dirt into potatoes and grass into bread, releasing the world from hunger. It can help repair any type of human cell, mending not only bones, but also eliminating body heat. (Nokia) diseases. (Pelletier, Dick) The Leonardo da Vinci’s of the future will print out their own nano designs with a 3D printer. We will only need one device which is our wristwatch, phone, tablet, wallet, Phones of War On a very important side note we and much more. would like to point out that not all Better Batteries (or not bat- is holy in the land of mobile devices. In the smart devices we use teries at all) today the mineral coltan is used in There is one word that will change tiny electronic circuits. This minthe way devices are operated eral is mined in the Congo, Africa, and manufactured, and that is and is, according to activists, the graphene. This form of carbon is cause for many deaths through “200 times stronger than steel, its financing the local warlords by thinner than a sheet of paper, and the big electronic companies. (Top more conductive than copper”.

Documentary Films) Graphene is incredibly solar efficient and make semiconductors much faster than anything else.

(Hodge, Nick)

bus stops they can even be used to promote your shop. (Knoll, Marc) However, the biggest advantage of NFC ought to be the function to use it as a bankcard. A big worry is safety, but if a payment can only commence using the fingerprint of the phone’s owner this problem is solved. According to the majority of a large panel of experts NFC payments could dominate commerce by 2020. It is entirely possible that in the future money will be completely digital, making cash obsolete. (Smith, Aaron)

Kurzweil seems to be right about on thing, the future is going fast.

Alexandria’s library could be filled with books about the future of mobile technology, so we have Cloud Computing picked the most interesting devel- “640k ought to be enough for anopments, in no particular order. ybody”, Bill Gates might have said it, or not, but back in 1981 nobody NFC dared to predict that we would Near Field Communication, a short use terabytes on a consumer level range wireless RFID technology, is 30 years later. However, the next meant for easy transmissions be- step is going back to 1981, between two or more devices. With cause with cloud computing we a house filled with NFC tags it can do not need our own hard disks. regulate the lighting upon enter- This relatively new trend is gaining ing a room, it can turn of the tel- speed due to better internet conevision when you leave, or auto- nections, because without it “the mate your alarm clock when you cloud” would not exist. (Katz, Jon) lay down in bed. From a business point of view it can be added to By 2020, it is expected that due business cards, with all kinds of in- to cloud computing we only need ventive functionalities. By placing a device to display applications, NFC tags in promotional posters at the applications themselves are

streamed through the cloud and do not use disk space. Adobe already uses this technology to sell single applications via their Creative Cloud, but for the moment these are still installed on the users device. (Talbot, Chris) (Clark, Jack)

According to the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology the basic definition of nanotechnology is “the engineering of functional systems on a molecular scale.” If we were to pick one technology that will literally shape our futures it is this. (CRN)

“The next step is going back...because with cloud computing we do not need our own hard disks” (John Katz)

For a bigger view, please visit: http://www.united-academics. org/magazine/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/EnvisioningTechnology.png or click image.

The more, far-fetched future-talk is to manufacture graphene computer chips which can run on light instead of electricity. This seems to come straight from an impossible science fiction novel, however, plants live on light and most information we humans consume is transported by light. This technology can be ready by 2020, nonetheless, it is highly debatable whether it will be implemented in devices by that time. (Clark, Adam (2))

Mobile and Services Mobile network

In fact, UMTS Forum has come to a conclusion that by 2020 the global data traffic will increase by 33 times compared with 2010 results (UMTS Forum, 2011).

As if to confirm this, United Kingdom's specialists have acknowledged that unless the UK’s mobile and Wi-Fi networks are upgraded by 2020, they will be unable to cope with increased data usage (Johnson, 2013). This only emphasises how badly a new network service providing technology is needed.

Next generation connectivity Today the most important mobile service is still network providing and it is certainly here to stay for a while longer. However, to meet future demands, network providers are already undergoing major The network of tomorrow Already some years ago we heard changes. about smart fridges keeping track The arrival of fourth generation of product expiration dates and telecommunication systems is ordering new ones. By the year currently the most significant im- 2020, we will encounter with provement of the industry. As of smart surroundings at both: at now 4G is implemented or is about home and in the workplace. to be available in most developed countries, bringing new functionality and speed to enhance our mobile lives. If 2G technology was suitable for making calls and sending text messages and 3G enabled access to the internet through your mobile phone, then 4G services will offer fast and stable data connection for our handheld mobile devices and gadgets. Therefore, 4G is ideally suited for more demanding services, such as video streaming, mapping and keeping one connected by social networking.

Network-driven technology will be the key enabler of daily activities while communication networks will play even more important role as they do today.

We will live in a hyper connected environment where every imaginable item will posses a certain level of intelligence thanks to the rapidly developing communications technologies.

Apparel - Wearable gadgets like glasses and smart wigs will be able to record and transmit i n Furthermore, as a new mobile formation. Development of auggeneration tends to come around mented reality technologies will roughly every decade, we can al- bring this service to a new level. ready start anticipating 5G that Imagine walking by a restaurant is currently at a concept stage. and being able to check their However, at the moment the gen- menu and reviews without lifting eral knowledge around some tech a finger. forums is that 5G will bring even higher data speed to cater to the Healthcare - Medical services will insatiable desire for higher speed get an amazing upgrade. A mobile device will monitor vital starates.

tistics of the user's biometric data and send alerts to the according institutions and specialists.

It also will receive reminders about medication and therapy and give the patients a chance to talk to their doctors over a high-definition video connection.

Government - Another trend is the willingness to know more about your local surroundings. By 2020 GPS enabled sensors will provide an up to date notification about public transport, traffic jams and parking conditions, to name a few.

These services will be tailored to the individual's needs, supported by the full integration of government systems.

Enterprise - Using the cloud businesses will sell their goods as services that are separate and distinct from their regular business offering, just as Amazon does today with their Webstore infrastructure. This will enable the user to access data with any device one the go.

The year 2020 will be a combination of increasingly powerful and intelligent networks and innovative devices that will change the way we understand and know the world today.

Better voice sound quality

To get back to the more traditional meaning of mobile services, one must not forget the voice transmission - the phone call. Trend watcher Dr John H Vanston is sure that quality voice service on wireless devices will become an option, if not standard. Improved handsets and the increased bandwidth afforded by 4G and 4G advanced will make this possible. It may be a carrier-provided service, or an application riding on the Internet, or a combination of the

two. (Mashable, 2012)

the cloud and 50% of all of today's IT vendors will be out of business by the end of the decade. (MashThe cloud Many future trend analysts are able, 2012) sure that by 2020 everything from music files to health records will Mobile cloud have moved into the cloud. There- Smaller and more flexible devices fore, connecting everyone to and will bring an impressive change to by means of the cloud most cer- the way we access and use data. tainly will become a big deal.

The decentralised storage of documents, videos and other data will enable collaborators to share deAnything can be a service Already now more and more com- vices without any loss of data, as panies decide to offer their goods well as give the ability to the indias a cloud based service. Be it viduals to access all the necessary software, file storage space or ap- data at all times from any location plications, storing and using them with any device. in the cloud makes your desired content available from any device The mobile cloud is already in use at any time. This will be true for in certain applications such as both: consumers and enterprises. Google's Drive and Apple's iCloud.

Cloud services will be available However, more improved network for everyone, public or private, infrastructure that is fast and stathrough cloud providers. Accord- ble enough to support the high ing to futurist Jan Uldrich, the ma- amount of data transfer needjority of computing will be done in ed will benefit every media data

consumer and producer. Some believe that access will replace ownership of media and software products, as consumers will pay for only accessing the data (Mashable, 2012). For instance, Adobe does that already now with their software and by now we all are familiar with Netflix and watching videos on demand.

In a few words

In a foreseeable future, network providers will continue offering IPbased technical solutions that enable collaboration of various new technologies. To drive the solutions and services of 2020, network providers will form alliances with other providers and partnerships with application developers and device makers. (Verizon)

In the recent years various aspects of a virtual world have emerged into our daily experiences. Online games, virtual wallets, QR codes, Near Field Communications, augmented reality... These elements create only a fraction of what the virtual world has in store for us by 2020.

Mobile and

2013). Besides, with the voice recognition technologies improving everyday, it very well might be the next big thing.

Near Field Communications

Near Field Communication (or NFC for short) chips already exist inside some smartphones and they’re predicted to get bigger and bigger in the next few years. The technology allows contactless communithe biggest benefiters of the new cation between two devices. The technology and thus information. short range of NFC chips (about 4 cm) also means they can be used (Van Lun, 2012) Augmented reality to transmit information securely.

As our little pocket devices beSuch chips are used in transport come more powerful and the net- Another important innovation passes worldwide, but adding work service grows only strong- caused by the AR technology will them to mobile devices will open er, augmented reality will finally be virtual advertising creating a up a new range of possibilities. have the necessary elements in new economic section that will be place for becoming an integral more personalised and interactive Currently, Japan is leading the part of our life. The combination than ever before. game with Japanese consumers of the real world and the virtual already using their phones as payone has been around already for Virtual hospitals ment cards, hotel keys, airport some time, yet the technology Trends expert Jim Carroll also sees boarding passes and more. (Physhas been lagging behind to enable the importance of mobility, wire- ics. org) augmented reality to become a less and pervasive connectivity real trend. At the moment Goog- that will drive the pace of virtuVirtual Avatars le Glass seems to be showing the al technology innovation. 'Credit In a bit more dramatic case, these best results technology wise so far. cards will be replaced by smartdevelopments phone transactions systems; auto technological might even replace humans. FuAccording to the futurist Erwin insurance will be forever changed turist Mike Walsh thinks that in van Lun, the new style screens of through GPS-based monitoring year 2020 retail avatars - screens our mobile devices will give us the devices that reward good driving or augmented reality holographic sense that they’re windows to a performance; hospitals will beprojections - will become popular box with an endless virtual world come virtual through the exten(Mashable, 2012). They will prowithin, integrated with the phys- sion of bio-connectivity, involving vide product and service recomical world through the window - remote medical monitoring and mendations based on your prefthe device. In agreement with Van management.' (Mashable, 2012) erences that would be deduced Lun, by the end of the decade even from your NFC emissions. If this our other senses (hearing, smell, Virtual personal assistants really takes off, service desks, taste) will be stimulated by vari- With the growing amount of inforshops and other retail venues will ous sensors in our bodies making mation we need to process every disappear from the physical world the overall virtual experience as day, life without a personal virtual and become virtual. real as possible. The virtual world assistant might become a little bit will create a thick layer around the too hectic. On the contrary belief of this being just a fad, numbers physical world. show that personal assistants on BOHN's future ads from the 1940's The best thing is that even the mobile phones have seen greater give in interesting view into the future most remote places will have the uptakes in the recent years. Acof that era. For more images visit Busiaccess to the knowledge that was cording to Nuance, more than 50% nessinsider.com. never there before, therefore of those who use this service, does making the developing countries so on a daily basis (Abou-Halloun

Virtual

The Mobile Economy Improvements in the fields of mobile technology, social platforms, and on-demand manufacturing are the cause for growing mobility attractiveness. With advanced mobile technology, especially through the already much hyped 5G network which will be rolled out in 2020, connectivity will become increasingly stable and fast, opening up markets for new and more diverse small-sized devices which people can carry with them, may this be a phone, tablet, phablet, or smart products like a watch, glasses, wig, bracelet, or anything mobile not yet invented.

Mobile payments

There is a possibility that the children who are born today will never own a wallet like the one we use in 2014. Even now the functionalities of mobile devices are taking over the classical wallet by replacing cash and chip card payments with online payments using bank apps or such programs as Paypal.

Whereas NFC can communicate two-way with other NFC devices from up-close, RFID makes up for its one-way exchange thanks to its range of up to 100 meters. Still, at this moment the future of NFC seems to be brighter. Many future applications will be created to make use of this technology. (Atlas RFID Store)

Open and global platforms

Sharing talents, skills, and even physical goods will drive a whole new economy to mobile devices.

Even now, such apps as airbnb, shareyourmeal, and citibike are becoming increasingly popular.

Many more and different ways of sharing will be introduced in the next paragraphs. We believe that sharing is the future and most noIn 2020, NFC (Near-field Commutable is that there are few classic nication) will be commonplace, The wallet of the future is a mo- companies involved, suggesting competing with RFID (Radio fre- bile device which is not only used that it is the young entrepreneurs quency identification), or perhaps to make phone calls and surf the who drive these new markets. working together. They have ad- internet, its new functionality will vantages relative to one another be paying any transaction, includ- Space and both to the way we pay for ing train tickets, groceries, and the A popular trend is sharing extra products and services with cash bill in a restaurant. space in your house by offering it and card at this moment. for couch surfing. Apps like airbnb and couchsurfing make it very

easy to find a place to stay if you do not want to stay in an expensive hotel and like to mingle with local people. The downside of couchsurfing is staying in someone’s private home, although it is gaining popularity worldwide.

In some countries it is possible to rent office space for just a day or a few days, depending on your own wishes. Opendesks, PivotDesk, and Shared Offices, among many others, offer this possibility, which is especially useful for companies who want to set up an office in a new city, but do not want to settle too soon. Using an open office gives a company time to look around for the right place.

a drive to socialize, which can also mean loneliness.

The meals are usually offered for free and there could be a future app similar to Foursquare or Highlight which can be used to promote someone’s shared food while other people can scan the environment for the availability.

Transportation

A proven way of sharing transportation is carpooling. It is normal among colleagues or commuting family members to share the same vehicle, however, if there is still an available seat in your car, there are ways to share this with someone else going the same way.

possibilities where household errands or skilled tasks are published for anyone to help out.

For designers there is another way to make money while on the road.

For example 99Designs, an online marketplace for graphic designs, where anyone can compete for making the best design or someone can be hired to make designs.

99Designs is paid as the middleman, and the designer receives a fee for the work.

Funding & Support

In 2012 a total of $319.786.629 was pledged on Kickstarter, successfully funding well over 18.000 projects.(Kickstarter) Second biggest crowdfunding site Indiegogo Other spaces such as houses can ZipCar and RelayRides allow you garnered 20% more than in 2011. be shared through mobile applica- to rent out your car, like a rental (Indiegogo) According to Forbes tions. This is meant for those who company, when it is not in use, in an article at the end of 2012, are always travelling and only stay while Sidecar allows drivers to in one place for a month or so at make money as taxi drivers in their a time. free time. Future apps will connect commuters who own a car Sharing space is a way to make with those who do not, allowing money with the extra space which the latter to travel for a small fee is not being used. Because this is a or perhaps even free, reaching a relatively new practice in a steep destination quicker in comparison upward lift it can expected this in- to travelling by bus or train, and dustry will grow undeniably until the use of empty space in cars, 2020. and thus on the road, is effectively used.

Food

Sharing food with less fortunate is nothing new, however, sharing food through mobile apps is a new trend which can gain velocity in the future.

Eat With Me, Meal Sharing, and Share Your Meal make it possible to tell the world you have a meal and they can come to your house to pick this up or eat with you. This is expected to become more popular among the elderly and singles. The incentive might be the extra time on their hands once the working life is behind or it can be

Besides cars also bicycles are shared through SoBi (Social Bicycle) and Bike and Roll.

“Global Crowdfunding will double in annual revenue to $6 billion in 2013”. (Forbes)

Most known for this is possibly Khan Academy, a fast-growing, free academy which offers classes in algebra, history, economics, Crowdfunding is not yet a recog- and much more. Entry levels are nized word by any English diction- extremely easy and accessible, ary, however, the question is not if ultimately leading the higher difbut how long it will take before an ficulties. entry will be made. Everything can be crowdfunded and it won’t be a A newer platform is edX, which is long wait until mobile apps offer- a very exciting cooperation of the ing crowdfunding will be available. world’s best and most renowned According to Thierry Merquiol, universities, including MIT, HarCEO at WiSEED, this market will vard, Kyoto University, ETH Zürich, be “1.000 billion euros by 2020”, and TU Delft. At this moment 30 something which cannot be refut- colleges and universities offer high ed as a tiny platform. quality courses for free on the internet, meaning that anyone can follow classes without restrictions Open Education The last, but certainly not least, to location, social class, or money. global and mobile platform we will Homework is checked by college discuss is open education. This is and university professors and after something that can truly change finalizing the course a real certifithe world in many intriguing ways. cate is sent to the attendee. (EdX) This means that through mobile connectivity anyone in the world can follow these courses and work on an impressive resume. Those who dream of studying at Berkeley can do so for free.

In the future task-based jobs while be made available through mobile apps, allowing any nomad to work wherever and whenever. TaskRabbit and Elance are already existing

Disrupted economies due to mobile success

There is no place in the world where the mobile economy contributes so much to the GDP as in sub-Saharan Africa, reaching six percent in 2012 and expected to grow to at least eight percent by 2020.

In hard numbers this translates to US $60 billion in 2012, this is expected to double in seven years time. Keeping in mind that 86 percent of connections is only 2G in 2012, the introduction of 4G in the area (or even 5G in a further future) will have a huge impact.

(GSMA)

The sharing community of tomorrow will disrupt more than one economy, as already mentioned in Open and Global Platforms. Many ways of trade will change through a shift from ‘me vs. the world’ to ‘the world and me’. Companies Google’s vision, among other tech- will have to adapt and many new nology companies, is to provide ventures will successfully surprise internet to everyone in the world, the world with inventive new ways no matter the place or wealth. In of sharing with the ease of mobile the future far-off and poor com- devices. munities will be able to follow

Task-based work

Australia is a popular destination for backpackers. These travellers often roam the country like nomads while making money with any odd job available in the area.

quality education through amazing projects such as Khan Academy and edX, and most likely other projects yet to be created.

As seen in the image Apple has patented their E-Wallet. Together with the software company many others are are creating their own digital solutions to paying for any type of bill in the future,

Scenarios

&

Key Uncertainties Coltan

A major uncertainty is the availability of rare elements used in mobile devices. Many of these minerals can only be found in Congo and China, whereas China is of the least concern. Since 1998 the Second Congo War is raging through Central Africa, killing in excess of 5.4 million people, of which 90% due to sickness and malnutrition. (International Rescue Committee) Meanwhile, warlords makes large amounts of money with the selling of graphene. These riches allow the war to continue, not only endangering the lives of the Congolese people, but also stagnating the huge potential of the mineral rich country. (Top Documentary Films)

Nature

While cloud services might be dominating by 2020, Mother Nature can decide not to agree. Back in 2006 an earthquake disrupted internet cables on the bottom of the ocean floor between the Americas and Asia. For weeks on and internet was slow, or websites based on American servers could not be reached. Connection with Europe was unstable due to an overload of data. (NY Times) A way to bypass this problem is satellite internet access, however, this form of internet is much slower than DSL and cable, not user-friendly for streaming videos

or high-speed downloading, let alone cloud computing. (Mitchell, Bradley)

Privacy

On May 20, 2013, Edward Snowden flee to Hong Kong. He had just send incriminating documents about the NSA to various newspapers and knew that it would not be safe for him to stay in the United States. Subsequently, many more articles and documents would be made public thanks to Snowden, and a worldwide debate fired up about the privacy issue. (The Guardian) Historically, a company could go to the Chamber of Commerce and buy data about citizens. This data could contain anything from church affiliation, address, and telephone number, to age and amount of persons per household. Today however, Facebook has 1.3 billion users, and they all share personal information about themselves with the social network for free. Facebook then sells this to third parties and all of a sudden commercials on websites you visit for the first time try selling things that you are interested in, at aleast according to Facebook. (Statistic Brain) 2020's young adults are born in a digital age, with no concept of a world without internet and connectivity. Future will tell how they

value privacy. On the other hand, data anonymization is becoming more popular. This form of data is still useful to analysts, while it does not contain any information regarding the identity of the specific individuals.

Another privacy issue arises with the coming of age of cloud computing. Data in the cloud is stored in warehouses, far away from the users' own home. The protection of this data is of vital importance and the development of the cloud may actually cause companies to invest in offline storage of data as a back-up.

Privacy Rights Clearinghouse has compiled an intriguing list of current issues and how they may develop towards 2020. (Privacy Rights Clearinghouse)

Looking at the future of the past we can witness how they envisioned our current time.

Nokia has put forth effort to visualize the future of the mobile device in a clear cut concept film.

Please visit http://www.youtube. com/watch?v=IX-gTobCJHs to watch their video.

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