recent glbal economic recession

View with images and charts The Recent Global Economic Recession: Challenged and Opportunities for the Bangladesh Economy Introduction 1.1 preambles Global cooperation is an important ingredient where domestic (real, monetary) and External sectors should work to complement each other for strengthening macroeconomic Performance. Bangladesh economy has been facing some impact of global financial crisis as it is an integral part of the global community. Definitely the current massive global financial turmoil has created some major setbacks not only for the developed nations but also for the developing countries like Bangladesh. However, if competitiveness, capacity building, business and economic policy formulation and implementation can be done properly, the adverse impact of the crisis can be minimized or mitigated and some potential opportunities explored. The study has been undertaken to examine whether and to what extent Bangladesh economy is integrated with the global economy, particularly the US economy (the country’s largest trading partner) which is used as a proxy for the global economy. It will also explore the nature and extent of impact of the current crisis on the Bangladesh economy and to explore possible opportunities the country may take advantage of as the global economy comes out of the crisis. To mitigate the problems of the crisis, the policy makers need to be more proactive rather than reactive. Some of these policy initiatives may involve infrastructural development, creation of employment opportunities, lowering price of the exportable commodities without sacrificing product quality, among others. It is also argued that the turmoil may bring opportunities that can be explored through using some nonconventional policy measures such as cost cutting, find access to new markets as well as retaining current markets for exporting products and labor, innovative marketing, among others.

1.2 Statement of the Problem Crises in the financial sector are not a rarer, but virulent, cause of recession, as is demonstrated by the Great Depression and Japanese experience in the 1990s.A sound financial sector is a uniquely important component of a growing economy because it enables capital to be efficiently directed from savers to borrowers. When this mechanism breaks down, there are spill-over effects to the wider economy as economic production becomes difficult, costly, inefficient, and slow. A non- functioning financial system is one economic problem that cannot be solved solely through traditional monetary and fiscal expansion, although the two can have palliative effects. Concern about financial crisis should not be confused, however, with the expected decline in asset prices that typically accompanies a recession.

In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity. During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way.

Production, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes, business profits, and inflation all fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise.

Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending, often following an adverse supply shock or the bursting of an economic bubble. Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies, such as increasing money supply, increasing government spending and decreasing taxation.

In a 1975 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Siskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was "two down consecutive quarters of GDP". In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten. Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5% rise in unemployment within 12 months.

National Bureau of Economic Research(NBER) defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales There is no commonly accepted definition of a global recession, although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regards periods when global growth is less than 3% to be global recessions. The IMF estimates that global recessions seem to occur over a cycle lasting between 8 and 10 years. During what the IMF terms the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative.

Economists at the IMF state that a global recession would take a slowdown in global growth to three percent or less. By this measure, four periods since 1985 qualify: 1990–1993, 1998, 2001–2002 and 2008–2009 A recession has many attributes that can occur simultaneously and includes declines in component measures of economic activity (GDP) such as consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures reflect underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies.

Economist Richard C. Koo wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the corporate sector as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and net exports near zero. When these relationships become imbalanced, recession can develop within the country or create pressure for recession in another country. Policy responses are often designed to drive the economy back towards this ideal state of balance.

A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession is referred to as an economic depression, although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different recession shapes, such as V-shaped, U-shaped, L-shaped and W-shaped recessions.

1.3 Objective of the study In order to conduct a worthwhile report preparation of “The Recent Global Economic Recession and Its Challenged and Opportunities for the Bangladesh Economy”, it is necessary to go through find out the challenged and opportunities for the Bangladesh economy under the study. This study aims at analyzing the economic recession and possible measures to stable the economic situation of Bangladesh. Consequently, the study will mainly describe the nature, causes, and findings and briefly define the current condition of the Bangladesh economy. It will also contain inputs of my personal findings or acuity.

The objective of the study is given as follows:  General Objective The general objective of the paper is to know about the Economic recession causes of recession, factors affecting on recession to identify the challenged and opportunities for the Bangladesh economy under the with other various indicators .The supplementary purpose of the study indentifying the impact of economic recession in key sector especially in RMG and Remittance.  Project Objective The study has been undertaken with following objectives: 1) To fulfill academic requirement 2) To gain practical knowledge about recession 3) To understand the meaning and nature of Global Financial crisis; 4) To know about the recession especially nature, character tics, functions, causes, negative impacts.

5) To assess the present situation of the domestic economy of Bangladesh; 6) To evaluate the impact of Global financial crisis on the domestic economy of Bangladesh and development of home grow formula in the future for remedies that can be uniquely designed for country specific needs and to analyze in implications in our country.

7) To suggest sustainable framework so that global financial crisis can create opportunities for the economy of Bangladesh.

8) To compare the recent economic recession with the greater economic depression 1930s.

9) To suggest or propose sustainable framework on how to overcome the negative impact on recession by new areas to invest and development of human capital.

10) To show the changing of economic indicators with the economic recession.

11) To determine the impacts of net export and manpower exporting for occurring economic recession.

12) Finally to identify the causes and problems and to provide some suggestions and recommendations to rescue from recession.

1.4 Scope of the study This report study covers the analyzing of economic recession where this study shows the challenges and opportunities with the net export (RMG) and man power exporting (Remittances). It also presents a brief scenario of Bangladesh economy .Especially this report emphasis on the facing the challenges and opportunities of the Bangladesh economy where we consider net export and manpower exporting with the recent economic recession. This also gives a brief idea of recent economic recession which was started in 2007 from USA. Finally we analyze the recent economic recession and fight the challenges and opportunities of Bangladesh economy.

1.6 Methodology of the study Since this study is describable and qualitative in nature. We have relied on secondary data with own insights. From that I collected information from many research institutes, journals, news papers articles, periodicals, Essays, internet etc .Due to time constant, the data I have collected may not be the true presentation of our LDCs country. However, we have tried our level best to make the paper with research insight and with up to date information.

The study is exploratory in nature. Data used in the study are collected basically from the secondary sources. The study will see Change in real GDP: Bangladesh versus the U.S; Change in Industrial Production Index: Bangladesh versus the U.S.; Trend in Taka per US Dollar: 1973 – 2009 to examine linkage between US economy and domestic economy.

Correlation of coefficients will also be determined. The major sources of data will be included publications of various authors, research reports, journals, Internet etc. However, exact sources will be mentioned. SWOT Analysis of the Bangladesh economy due to Global financial crisis will also be done. Time period of the study is up to September 2009.

Study Plan: The proposed study can be organized under three phases such as Phase I:

Inception Phase

Phase II:

Survey/Data Collection Phase

Phase III:

Reporting Phase

Phases

Activities

Phase I Inception Phase

Collection and review of relevant documents/literature. Development of Data Collection Instruments (DCIs) and Techniques, Developing Guidelines for Focus Group Discussions (FGD).

Phase II Survey/Data Collection Phase

Deployment of Data gatherers, monitoring and supervision of the data collected though the Development of Tabulation and Data Analysis, Plan and techniques.

Phase III Reporting Phase

Editing data, Data Computation, Analysis of Data and Preparation of Tables and prepare graphical presentation.

Literature Review 2.1 Introduction The economic crisis is not new in the capitalist economic system. Interestingly, the po stBretton Woods era witnessed an unprecedented wave of financial crises. The magnitude oft he losses incurred by the economies and by banks during these crises are staggering. It is also noteworthy that financial crises are not unique to only the postBretton Woods era; history is replete with financial crises, especially banking and exchange rate crises.

However, the financial crises in post Bretton Woods era differ in many ways from the crisesbefore the launch of the Bretton Woods system. They differ in magnitude, frequency, ex tentof devastation, failure of the lender of the last resort, contagion effect, and in resonance throughout the world. However, during the recent crisis of the capitalism the government’s in USA, UK, Finland announce nationalization of the private companies. Thus, the current crisis can not be considered only as a cyclical crisis of the capitalist system. The theoretical basis of financial crisis and capitalist economy probably would be revisited as one of the aftermaths of the crisis.

The objective of the paper is to investigate the cause of the global financial crisis and present a quick analysis of possible channels of contagion on the Bangladesh economy. It is difficult to offer remedial and preparatory measures comprehensively.

2.2 Background of the Research Topics Recessions are not a new occurrence, nor are they at all limited to the well-known, and rare incidents such as the dot-com crash, and the Great Depression of 1929; in fact, in the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research (the bureau is involved in a number of economic research areas, including: a. defining when a given recession starts and ends, and

analysis and research upon economic factors, and indicators, may be indicative of a recession) identified 11 recessions between 1945 and 2007.

Economic recessions in any nation have historically been wide-reaching, effecting international economies and as such international recessions are just as common as nationspecific recessions, and furthermore, recessions may beget further recessions in other countries. As such, recessions are often grouped together despite occurring at slightly different times, or having differing effects between regions, generally, because they share a single event or stimulus which can be traced as the origin.

The history of economic statistics starts in the nineteenth century; prior to that, little in the way of employment metrics, wages, income, production, inflation, and other important economic indicators could be identified. As such, there’s little but subjective politicking in terms of determining when a recession started, or ended, and even if one ever occurred.

The source of current crisis is in the real-estate business and investment banking, particularly in the aggressive use of financial engineering. The US sub-prime mortgage crisis manifested itself first through liquidity issues in the banking system owing to sharp decline in demand for asset-backed securities. Hard to value structured products and other instruments created during a boom of financial innovation had to be severely marked down due to the newly implemented fair value accounting and credit rating downgrades. Credit losses and asset write downs got worse with declines houses prices and accelerating mortgage foreclosures which increased in late 2006 and worsen further 2007 and 2008.A number of financial institution failed and profits at US banks declined due to provisions for loan losses .As of august 2008 sub-prime related and other loses or write downs by global financial institutions stood at about 500 billons dollars.

The 2008 real estate boom/banking crash recession was termed by the N.B.E.R. to have started in December of 2007, citing declining jobs as being the primary indicator: “The committee views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment, this series reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined every month since then.� said the Bureau in December of 2008.

The term financial crisis is applied broadly to a variety of situations in which some financial institutions or assets suddenly lose a large part of their value. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking panics, and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other situations that are often called financial crises include stock market crashes and the bursting of other financial bubbles, currency crises, and sovereign defaults. Financial crises directly result in a loss of paper wealth; they do not directly result in changes in the real economy unless a recession or depression follows.

Many economists have offered theories about how financial crises develop and how they could be prevented. There is little consensus, however, and financial crises are still a regular occurrence around the world.

Of referred to as a “credit crunch� the financial crisis of 2008 refers to the so-called recession beginning with the collapse of subprime loans and a loss of confidence in available securitized mortgages and their ratings. Whether the financial crisis and associated collapse is truly a recession or not is still in heated debate by economy mists, with many believing that a market correction cannot be considered contractionary in this context. That said, a clear reduction in consumer spending has been noted, and imports have fallen by over 4 per cent since 2007, down from a growth of 12 per cent between 2006 and 2007. Petroleum imports are by far the biggest loser, at nearly 30 per cent reduction; correlating with the automotive crisis, and increase in oil prices. In September, when the stock market finally crashed, indicating the failure of these asset packages, and lack of available liquidity to the American businesses, the government stepped in and increased the cash injection program.

Internationally, stock prices began to collapse, possibly indicative of the rise of globalization in financial market. A number of large financial institutions - including Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual and Wachocia Inc.. - found themselves insolvent due to the de-leveraging effect of the shrinking money supply, resulting in either government managed takeovers in the form of cash injections, or corporate buyouts.

Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations are in recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007, and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. The US recession of 2007 ended in June, 2009 as the nation entered the current economic recovery.

2.3 Conceptual Framework Economic recessions are caused by a decline in GDP growth, which is itself caused by a slowdown in manufacturing orders, falling housing prices and sales, and a drop-off in business investment. The result of this slowdown is falling employment, and rising unemployment, which causes a slowdown in retail sales. This creates a downward spiral in manufacturing and increased layoffs. A stock market decline, known as a bear market, can either be a result of a recession but is often a cause itself.

In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity. During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way.

Production, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes, business profits, and inflation all fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise.

Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending, often following an adverse supply shock or the bursting of an economic bubble. Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies, such as increasing money supply, increasing government spending and decreasing taxation.

A recession has many attributes that can occur simultaneously and includes declines in component measures of economic activity (GDP) such as consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures reflect underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate

investment decisions, rates, demographics, and government policies. Economist Richard C. Koo wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the corporate sector as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and net exports near zero.[7] When these relationships become imbalanced, recession can develop within the country or create pressure for recession in another country. Policy responses are often designed to drive the economy back towards this ideal state of balance.

A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession is referred to as an economic depression, although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different recession shapes, such as V-shaped, U-shaped, L-shaped and W-shaped recessions The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, V-shaped, or short-andsharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–91; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–75, and W-shaped, or double-dip recessions in 1949 and 1980–82. Japan’s 1993–94 recessions was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–99 can be described as L-shaped. Korea, Hong Kong and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–98, although Thailand’s eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped.

Psychological aspects Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if the expectation develops that economic activity will slow, firms may decide to reduce employment levels and save money rather than invest. Such expectations can create a self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession. Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment. The term animal spirits has been used to describe the psychological factors underlying economic activity. Economist Robert J. Shiller wrote that the term "...refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people."

Balance sheet recession The bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause a recession. For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession." It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have negative equity, meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero interest rates and expansion of the money supply to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment, a key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003. Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type Great Depression, in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued

that monetary policy was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy.

Liquidity trap A liquidity trap is a Keynesian theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero (ZIRP) yet do not effectively stimulate the economy. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; the lower interest rates are like "pushing on a string." Economist Paul Krugman described the U.S. 2009 recession and Japan's lost decade as liquidity traps. One remedy to a liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via quantitative easing or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating inflationary expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and mercantilist policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of the world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap.

2.4 Over view of The Literature Bangladesh is interlinked with global financial system. As such global financial crisis which was originated from the year 2007 mainly in USA and spread in the latter part of the year 2008 among developed nations and subsequently shifted to developing nations has impact on the domestic economy of Bangladesh. The country is in a difficult situation as it faces imbalances, lack of transparency in the financial markets and non applicability of domestic safety net. On 18 August 2009, IMF’s chief economist Olivier Blanchard commented that the global economic recovery has begun but sustaining it will require refocusing the United States toward exports and Asia toward imports. He also argued that from the point of view of the United States, a decrease in China's current account surplus would help increase demand and sustain the U.S. recovery. However, Blanchard’s comments may be feasible for the short run but it should be carefully observed what will happen in the mid run and long run. But it cannot be denied that International monetary fund did not play due role when global financial crisis arises. Before the crisis they must have surveillance in the USA and other developed nations.

Though global financial crisis has started, the world leaders should take steps in the spirit of the Breton Wood conference of 1944 to recover the global financial system. They confined their decision for their own country. G-20 meeting was not very effective. It did not have any direction about how IMF and World Bank will be strengthened. These sorts of financial instability were earlier felt during different time period. It may be noted that currency crisis earlier occurred in France, Italy, Spain, and UK during early Nineties and Mexico during mid nineties. Moreover, South East Asian currency crisis occurred during 1996-1998.Russia and Brazil were also affected by the currency crisis. But this time

magnitude and degree of the crisis is high as it originated from the global financial leader USA based on whom world class capitalistic structure working as a whole.

After long two years, the country restored its democracy through general election in the early part of the year 2009. Economic progress of the country depends on political stability. The government has been facing the impact of global financial crisis on the domestic economy. Bangladesh is the part of the global economy; as such they have to 3face the danger of the global financial crisis, which has both micro and macro impact all over the world.

However, still now macro economic variables of the country are more or less is not in a very bad situation. The government in Bangladesh on 19th April, 2009 first declared a ‘stimulus package’ of Tk 3,424 Core. Latter on Govt. allocated special financial package for Taka 5,000 core in the budget of the fiscal year 2009-10.Govt. tried their level best to satisfy different segments of the business groups but they are still demanding for more packages.

In the national budget of Bangladesh for the fiscal year of 2009-10, it is expected that gross domestic products growth rate will be 5.5 percent but latter on Finance Minister expressed that it may be raised up to 6%. The Govt. earlier organized a task force to prepare for the global financial crisis though the activities of the task force should be more strengthen. In the budget it has been decided that dependence on domestic borrowing will be reduced to finance the fiscal deficit, reorient towards foreign aid and loans, to raise Tax/GDP ratio, decrease of debt/GDP ratio, and keep away from suppliers’ credits. Tax/GDP ratio in Bangladesh is very low as it is only 9 %.They also put emphasis on public and private partnership.

Global financial crisis has been spreading out all over the globe, which leads to danger not only for USA and European countries, but also other parts of the world. Excessive liberalization, non-compliance of corporate governance, existence of asymmetric information, lack of surveillance, through financial engineering the market was manipulated; capital was flowed short term as well as long term were the causative factors behind the crisis. Withdrawal of Glass-Steagall act during Bill Clinton’s administration as it allows commercial and investment banks to consolidate. As such it has an adverse impact on the financial sector of the USA. Moreover, Bush administration relaxed the procedure o disburse money through allowing to purchase or refinance home as well as the deficit budgets for several years. Though it mainly started from the housing sector, yet the problem arose when regulation in the financial sector couldn't work in the right direction. US regulators did not supervised and monitored properly the way the financial institutions were providing loans to all kinds of people during the housing- boom period.

A lot of financial instruments and derivatives are used in the markets, which were not understood by the market players, investors, clients and also regulators. Lac k of information about the market did not give the scope to work under competition rather market information crates distortion. Speculation is largely superseded by the gambling. Those who are part of the gamble were affected by the corruption prone financial activities. Self-belief about the

market dynamics were shrinks across the globe. Those who are worried for their financial future are likely to be searching for advice on getting their assets in order.

Risk speculators needs to unveil asset classes, a blend of bonds and loans, or security pools such as residential and commercial mortgage backed securities in USA, but they didn't in fact acquire the basic credits, had now a means by which to speculate on them. Credit default swaps are two-sided contracts, which indicate that they are private contracts connecting two parties. Credit default swaps are written on subprime mortgage securities. It is shocking that these subprime mortgage pools to facilitate banks, insurance companies, investment banks, hedge funds and others bought were over-rated and ended up declining sharply in value as foreclosures rise on the causal Mortgages in the collection. The most important thing is that perceptions of the customers were destroyed and mismanagement was created in the primary stage of the economy. Due to financial crisis all over the world recession has been spread out. To eradicate the problem of global financial crisis, starting form USA to different developed nations and developing countries are uses short, medium, and long term policies. Based on the economic situation of different countries, respective governments introduces some conventional and non-conventional measures including fiscal measures, monetary policies, nationalization of financial institutions, financial packages to bail out, providing subsidies, cash flows etc.

Through considering micro and macro perspectives, the government of Bangladesh is trying to cope with the policy formulation to mitigate the problem of the global financial turmoil. The prime objective is to create employment opportunity, infrastructural development and to safeguard the economy from the worst impact of the global financial crisis. But problem lies with the implementation process.

2.5 Aggregate Literature Review G-20 summit at Washington on 15th November 2008 took place in USA. Helleiner and Pagliari (2008) argued that the global spread of the financial crisis already has had the repercussion of weakening the credibility of the Anglo-American financial model and, fuelling centrifugal pressures in the international financial system. Failure of the corporate governance in the western countries owing to excessive financial engineering has increased the gravity of the situation. Structured market may be followed where open economy cannot work .If perfect competition fails to work in the market or distortion prevails then there should be regulation. Germany recently announced a modest stimulus plan and Britain also supports plans for further economic stimulus.

Khalily (2008) argued that capital market of Bangladesh may not face any adverse impact of the crisis. He cautioned that as Bangladesh grows, it may be exposed to the types of financial risks that banks in the developed countries have faced. Regulator should be innovative as in the free market economy, moral hazard and adverse selection problems will always prevail.

Adamou (2009) observed that the risk of global recession has heightened significantly and volatility of commodity prices on the developing countries like Nigeria has

increased further. If this condition continues to deteriorate developing countries could be in great jeopardy. He found that this crisis will cause fall in commodity prices, decline in export, lower portfolio and FDI inflow, fall in equity market, decline in remittance from abroad etc.

Ashen (2009) commented that the financial system in Bangladesh & many LDCs has been free of the direct contagion of toxic assets plaguing the advanced economies. Even then active monitoring of the capital structure of the banking system would be important to retain public confidence.

Anwar (2009) observed that widespread corporate fraud, greed, insider trading, and so on has been due to regulatory failure to generate oversight, accountability, transparency and monitoring – all that led to dampen the economy-wide crises in the U. S. and tipped the world at large into recession as a chain reaction. He suggested that ensuring smart regulatory governance can help the regulators avert and curb the generation of such crises, – thereby shaping up responsiveness to and confidence in the general public both inside the nation and across the world.

Aversa (2009) reported that Bernanke urged to rewrite of U.S. financial regulations, something Congress is involved in. He called for stricter oversight of companies — such as AIG — whose failure would endanger the entire financial system and the broader economy.

He also argued that the U.S. needs a process to wind down globally interconnected companies, as he Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation does for failing banks.

David365 (2009) described that the turbulent financial tsunami has spread to the real economy. In the current international financial crisis, many foreign trade enterprises, especially export-oriented SMEs are facing difficulties. The financial crisis can be called as the most serious financial disaster since the Great Depression due to global effects characterized by the breakdown of key trade, declines in consumer wealth estimated in the trillions of U.S. dollars, substantial financial commitments incurred by governments, and a significant decline in economic activity. Various causes have been proposed for the crisis, with experts placing different weights upon particular issues.

Loser (2009) argued that the financial crisis that erupted in August 2007 after the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market entered a tumultuous new phase in September 2008. These developments badly shook confidence in global financial institutions and markets. Most dramatically, intensifying solvency concerns triggered a cascading series of bankruptcies, forced mergers, and public interventions in the United States and Western Europe, which eventually resulted in a drastic reshaping of the financial landscape.

Imam (2009) argued that the economy of Bangladesh may not be affected in short run. He commented that to withstand the shock emerging from global economic slowdown and ultimately its impact on growth depends on : how long the recession lasts and the depth and severity of the recent global crisis.

Sagafi-nejad (2009) depicted that Wall Street traders, who took advantage of lax enforcement, built houses of cards by devising and selling to greedy customers “financial

instruments� so complex and so bizarre most of the traders themselves did not understand them. Worse, these gimmicks had little redeeming quality, and contributed marginally if at all to the efficiency of the market. Instead, they took the form of Ponzi Schemes! Meanwhile, if the meltdown prevails for long time in that case the country needs well effort stimulation and comprehensive package.

Talukder (2009) observed that according to Bangladesh Bank data, , total number of persons going number of persons going abroad July-March FY 2008-09 was about 26.4 % less than that of the comparable period of the previous fiscal year.

Bangladeshi workers abroad are being laid off in the Middle East, South East Asia and other countries where Bangladeshis find low-skilled, low skilled, low-wage work.

World Bank (2009) observes that global economic disaster guides to increase risk of poverty in almost all developing countries. Around 40 % of developing countries are highly exposed to the poverty effects of the crisis.

According to Global Monitoring report of World Bank (2009) the deepening global recession, rising unemployment, and volatile commodity prices in 2008 and 2009 are seriously affecting progress toward poverty reduction. The recent food crisis has thrown millions into extreme poverty. Deteriorating growth prospects in developing countries will further slow the pace of poverty reduction.

2.6 Present Status/Situation Bangladesh has overcome determinedly with the economic recession positively. It has been able to continue the economic growth. Actually recession had no negative impact on our economy. Though Ready Made Garments (RMG) and Remittance sector were affected normally. Price level was approximately stable by the time of recession. But the flow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) was affected by the recession.GDP growth was potential.

After the recession GDP growth was increasable by the times. If we see the GDP growth at recently, it is very optimistic. GDP growth of 2010-2011 is 6.66 which are higher than fiscal year 2010-2007.

Now we discuss about the present status of World Economic Situation. According to the World Economic Outlook(WEO) the world economic growth for Year 2010

Growth Rate 5%

View World

2011

4.4%

World

2012

4.5%(expected)

World

2010

3%

Developed Country

2011

2.4%

Developed Country

2012

2.6(expected)

Developed Country

2010

7.3%

Developing country

2011

6.5%

Developing country

2012

6%(expected)

Developing country

World economic outlook-2009 of decreasing export and import for economic recession are given below: Year

Decreasing of import

Decreasing of import

view

2009

12.2%

12.6%

Developed country

2009

7.5%

8.3%

Developing country

Year

Growth of import

Growth of export

view

2010

12.0%

11.2

Developed

2010

14.5%

13.5%

Developing

2008-2009

4.06%

10.31%

Bangladesh

2009-2010

5.47%

4.11%

BangladeshS

2010-2011

40.59%

40.31%

Bangladesh

Fiscal Year

Bangladesh economy is linked up with the global financial system. As such domestic economy is facing the problems created by the global economic disorder though the magnitude of negative impact is still not too much high. According to Asian Development Bank (Bangladesh: Quarterly Economic Update, June 2009) report Bangladesh ‘s GDP growth rate was 5.9% in the fiscal year 2008-09 which is comparatively lower than the fiscal year of 2007-08 when GDP growth rate was 6.2%

Fig: - Illustrates nominal GDP of Bangladesh over the time period.

One of the reasons that global turmoil did not affect too much on the domestic Economy is that the country still depends on agricultural sector. According to the aforesaid ADB report (2009) the growth rate of agriculture sector was 4.6% in the fiscal year 2008-09 which is higher than 3.2% in the fiscal year 2007-08. Moreover, though the country is moving towards free market economy since 1990 but still openness of the economy has not been properly established. The country is also facing problem as financial deepening on the economy as it doesn’t occur. However, growth rate in the industrial sector reduced to 5.9 percent in 2008-09 from the 6.8 percent of 2007-08 as export production in the second half of the fiscal year slowed due to the global meltdown(source: ibid) . The report also observed that annual inflation declined to 6.7% in fiscal year 2008-09 from 9.9% in fiscal year 200708.Decline of inflation is mainly to fall of the price of rice, wheat, oil in the international market and bumper food production of rice occurred in the country. Food crisis was really headache during the care taker Govt. and price was raised alarmingly due to the price hike at the international level as well as scarcity at the country.

According to news report published in Business Times (25 Septmeber, 2009) - Bangladesh Bank decides toad follow accommodative monetary policy, aimed at boosting growth and shielding the economy from the global crisis. The monetary policy stance between July and December, 2009 is designed to support attainment of the highest sustainable output growth without triggering escalation of inflation.

Banking system of the country is not free from the danger. Difference between the crisis of developed nations and Bangladesh is that their crisis originated from the financial sector and worst impact felt in the real sector. On the other hand in case of Bangladesh crisis has been originated in the real sector due to the problem arise from financial sector. Due to financial crisis, not only exporters will face the problem, but the banking sector will also face problem

due to non-recovery of advances against export financing. Moreover, liquidity surplus is prevailing in the commercial banks. According to ADB report (2009) - it is Bangladesh Taka 347.6 Billion on 30th June, 2009. Foreign Exchange reserve at Bangladesh Bank is very high. Irony is that at this stage they are taking loan from the International Monetary fund. For last three years investment has declined substantially and borrowing from the banking sector by the investors has reduced substantially. Rather default culture is crippling the economy.

Recently the Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision decided to strengthen the banking rules and regulations under the guidance of the Bank for international settlements: Raise the quality, consistency and transparency of the Tier 1 capital base; Introduce a leverage ratio as a supplementary measure to the Basel II risk-based framework ; Introduce a minimum global standard for funding ; Introduce a framework for countercyclical capital buffers above the minimum requirement; Issue recommendations to reduce the systemic risk associated with the resolution of cross-border banks.

Unfortunately the present Govt. is doing same wrong as did by earlier political Govt. regarding reconstitution of Board of Directors of the public limited banks. The criteria for selecting directors of the banks in most cases become the relatives/leaders of the party even depriving lot of potential personalities/supporters of their own party. Independent directors are also being nominated on the basis of the same criteria’s a result the banks won’t be able to contribute in the economic development process at the time of global crisis. It will also fail to comply with corporate governance. Most of the directors of the banks are also male dominated and gender inequality prevails. Lack of transparency, accountability and fairness creating problem for the banking sector. Though still currently banking sector is not weak, but if inefficient peoples are interfere in the banking business then they will collapse.

Especially fall of price of oil may worsen Middle-Eastern countries' economic scenario in a vulnerable situation. It has a chain effect. A good number of the Bangladeshi expatriates who are working in the Middle East might become unemployed or their salary might be reduced due to spread of global financial crisis in the Middle East, Malaysia and other countries.

According to ADB report (Bangladesh: Quarterly Economic Update, June 2009) - remittance inflows grew by 22.4% in the fiscal year 2008-09 ,down from 32.4% in the year 200708.Some countries such as Lebanon and Libya opened up their job markets for Bangladeshi labors. But demand from other countries such as Malaysia, Mauritius and Saudi Arabia is declining, During January–May 2009 about 12,000 Bangladeshi labors returned home from Malaysia. During the second half of fiscal year 2009, labor outflows from Bangladesh to Saudi Arabia decreased by 65.0%and around 6,000 Bangladeshi workers returned from Mauritius.

Actual decline of foreign remittance will start from the latter part of the year 2009. When job cuts are occurring abroad, there is every chance of reduction of job for the foreign nationals at abroad. Though salaries of the Bangladeshi laborers are relatively less in the Middle East and other countries but there demand is relatively low in comparison to neighboring countries labors working abroad. However, still now beneficiaries of foreign remittances use the major

portion of their fund for consumption purpose and from the rest of the fund they want to earn interest as well as for investment purposes.

President of USA, Barak Obama wants to create job in USA. His plan is very good. But he is not in favor of outsourcing businesses. Some Bangladeshi entrepreneurs are trying to get the business of call centers. However, Bangladesh may not be able to run this business successfully.

The economy of Bangladesh faces another problem. When price rises in the international market, it is observed that in the domestic market price rises sharply. But when price falls in the international market, price falls very slowly in the domestic market. We know that at the time of opening of the Letter of Credit (L/C), the price, which is available in the international market, it will continue and as such all on a sudden it may not be possible to reduce. But the rate of decrease of the price occurs at a far lower speed than what is actually desired. On the other hand, in Bangladesh through oligopolistic nature of business, cartels are created in the market mechanism, which ultimately charge higher prices than the prevailing rate in the international market. Price of soybean oil is still higher in the domestic market. Similarly, price of flour is still two times higher in the domestic market compared to international market. When in the international market price is declining, in Bangladesh prices of products are still businessmen are trying to keep high. Due to different stages of bringing the commodities from the remote villages to urban areas and lack of well developed supply chain management sometimes commodities are being sold at a too much higher price. Prices in the retail markets are much higher than what it would have been including all the costs including transportation and normal profit. Lack of alternative public business enterprises like Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) creates problem. Though Govt. is taking initiatives to activate TCB to avoid cartel situation created by the syndicate prevailing in the Bangladesh economy but still now they failed to do so still September 2009. Moreover, there are at least 18-24 stages to bring products from the remote villages to the retail marketing.

Each stage not only transportation cost but also rent seeking by the rent seekers including police and also different criminals’ raises the prices.

Regarding export, around 80 per cent of the total export earnings are coming from USA and European countries. Bangladesh's export items have low price elasticity and targeted towards relatively lower income groups. So there will not be a major problem. But due to recession in foreign countries, the foreign buyers placed already less amount of order for export of products .Export earnings are very low. According to ADB report rate of growth of export is 10.3 percent in the fiscal year 2008-09 which is lower than 15.9% of the fiscal year 200708.Already RMG sector became affected.

Around 50 per cent of the total garments firms, which are not competitive, are collapsing. At least 6 to 7 hundred thousand female workers in the RMG sector will be unemployed. In the meantime, it is observed that in the RMG sector order decreased by around 14-20 per cent.

This is a real problem for the economy. Not only female workers but also huge number male workers of the export led growth industries are also losing their job.

However, there might be an opportunity if Garments sector can produce at a lower cost and able to increase their export volume if low income elastic product can be exported. Moreover, price of raw leather has decreased substantially in the international market. And we do not have enough capability to produce finished leathers with product differentiation. Though we have competitive advantage in blue leather, but we cannot develop leather industry properly.

Rather China, Hong Kong etc. countries are doing well in the leather sector. In case of tea production, we are still using older mode of production process for which our tea sector also needs appropriate attention and capacity building. In long term we may also lose the tea market as there are no measures to improve the production process of Tea. Handicrafts products are not getting due attention. Frozen foods are losing international market due to global turmoil. The country is gradually losing the market of Jute. Jute and jute related products need diverse development scheme starting from setting up new capital machinery as Life cycle of the most of the capital machineries were expired. Pharmaceutical industries need special attention for marketing their product in the international arena. Despite Govt.’s supporting to the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector, but still this sector is an infant stage and cannot generate export earnings which are much below from the target level. The country is now exporting ships and bricks. But we should be cautious about the worse impact on the environment and production must be free from pollution hazards.

Bangladesh’s balance of trade position is always in deficit. As import prone country the country can get some opportunity Importable commodities like food, oil, fertilizers etc. have been decreased. As a result Bangladesh may face some sorts of benefits According to ADB reports, imports in the fiscal year 2008-09 raises only 4.1 percent.

Bangladesh has dramatically reduced dependency syndrome on foreign aid and loans for last 25 years. In the proposed budget it has been expected that 4.5% of the Total receipts will come as a foreign aid and 7.6% as a foreign loan. Due to global financial crisis, rate of foreign aid and loans disbursement will be reduced in different countries.

However, we are still dependent on foreign advisers counsel on different national, political and economical issues, which is not desirable. As an independent country this creates negative impact and lowers prestige of Bangladesh in the international arena. Ultimately, this will lead to create low-level equilibrium trap. The country should try to attain self-reliance and must not need certificate from foreign nations to judge whether we are doing right or wrong. Vision and mindset should be changed. As Bangladeshi we must feel proud that we have a rich cultural heritage and we get independence after successful liberation war. Rather we are now giving chance to the foreigners to say about any trifle matter. This is really ridiculous. And it indicates that though we are an independent nation but we lowers our own dignity and behaves like a slave. The country cannot able to develop self-respect as the basic characteristics of development refer to freedom from dependence, freedom from hunger and freedom from ignorance.

Non-resident Bangladeshis can work as a linkage and bridge the gap to develop businessfriendly environment between the domestic and international arena. Though different Govt.’s told that they will be engaged to participate in the development process but it was not

practiced. Bangladesh embassies in different foreign countries are not playing their due role.

They are not working to turn diplomacy for the prosperity of economy. Moreover, those who are appointed as ambassador at abroad their negotiation skills are very weak.

Capital market is relatively safe as only 2.83 per cent foreign investment took place in the capital market. According to ADB report (2009) market capitalization of the Dhaka Stock Exchange rose from Tk.970.4 billion in July 2008 to Tk.1312.8 billion by the end of June 2009 which is 21.3% of GDP and leads to rise of 35.3%. Chittagong Stock Exchange market capitalization rose 26.1% during fiscal year 2008- 09.But there is a syndrome that market manipulation, insider trading will continue with the help of a group of vested interest persons.

Numbers of financial instruments are not sufficient enough. Banking shares are dominating in the share prices. Some commercial and merchant banks are breaking the guidelines of the Bangladesh Bank as well as Securities and Exchange Commission rules and they are injecting to raise the price of the share of different companies. Though Bangladesh Bank requested all commercial banks to submit information regarding their portfolios in the share market but most of the banks are not compliance the rule properly. As such share price index is raising and volume of the trade in the share market is increasing and they are gaining in short run. But capital market is not benefiting for the economic development of the country. Capital market cannot play vital role for long term industrial financing as well as investment for construction of bridge, port etc.

The Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry on 6th December 2008 presented a paper entitled 'Maximizing growth for Bangladesh: A private sector vision' at a seminar. Their vision is not free from the drawbacks as most of the initiatives were proposed to be taken by the government. But creation of the congenial environment of public -private ownership is essential. In the current era, to cope with global turmoil we must ignore heavy dependence on trading. Around 95 per cent of all business units are in the Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) category in Bangladesh. The SMEs provide a highly cost-effective and socially desirable route to industrialization in Bangladesh.

Investment costs per person employed in large industrial units work out to be 78 to100 times of those for SMEs. We should engage in developing entrepreneurship and this entrepreneurship should not be confined within SMEs sector only. We should be motivated to develop industrial sector medium and high tech industries, which can 16substitute, export industries. GDP growth rate can be raised to 8 per cent but it needs at least 4-5 years.

Otherwise, any good desire for developing the economy of Bangladesh may be turned to become ineffective.

This global financial crisis indicates how all sorts of changes can occur in the world.

Excessive deregulation creates scope for earning super normal profit, which destroys perfect competitive situation. But where per capita GDP is only 621 US dollar (Source: Bangladesh Arthanaitic Samikhya 2009), and growth rate of GDP is around 6 per cent, there should be five years' planning. Govt. is going to prepare a twenty years broad based planning. Macro level development strategy should be prepared within a boarder perspective to develop the economy of Bangladesh for next five years. Still Govt. is delaying to prepare Five year plan.

And in the meantime they are trying to get foreign aid and loans against Poverty reduction strategy –II. Currently Bangladesh Bank is trying to maintain stabilization of USD against Bangladesh Taka. According to the ADB report (2009) the nominal exchange rate (taka/dollar) remained stable in the year 2008-09, with modest depreciation. The exchange rate ranged from Tk68.5:$1 to Tk69.1:$1 in the year 2008-09.However, exporters and remittances senders are pressing hard to deprecate Taka against USD. USD might have two rates one normal rates, which should be determined by demand and supply. For exporters and remittance holders, there may be introduction of special procedures for providing them special rebate.

Fig:- Shows nominal exchange rate of Bangladesh taka against per US Dollar from 1975-76 to 2008-09.

Around 50% of the economy in Bangladesh is unrecorded economy. This is creating problem for the society. To add value in the society, procedures of unrecorded transactions should be turned to white in the transaction processes. This time Govt. launched special scope for whitening the black money for next three fiscal years. Actually it should be given for one year and should be allowed to use in the productive sector only. Parallel market should be more transparent and efficient.

Still the country doesn’t take proper steps to improve infrastructures and services to reduce lead time. Without generating of electricity for 7000 MW and curtailment of system loss in electricity, the country cannot develop its economy. There is a need to reduce the antiexport bias in the trade regime, improve the investment climate, continuing prudent financial policies, bringing political stability, removing growth of militants and terrorist activities, as well as cost-effective measures to assist the export sector and its workers.

Population growth rate is very high. This population growth rate is a hindrance for economic development of the country. To create employment opportunity stress should be

given in between bottom up and top –down approach. From the grass root level all sorts of development strategies should be taken. Local level planning is not at all getting any importance and upazillas cannot work in the right direction.

Operational Management including inventory management of the business sector is not efficient. The country cannot arrange linkage with modern technology. It failed to apply e-marketing strategy in the business environment. Integrated Marketing communications were not developed. Country lacks managerial inefficiency, strategic planning and implementation. Sustainability in the long run doesn’t consider. Corruption, nepotism, criminalization, lack of check and balance system have been destroying the economic situation. Entrepreneurship development is not feasible. Young generation should come to develop entrepreneurship. The economy of the country is facing hostile environment accompanied by political instability.

Still now Chittagong port of the country is not properly reorganized so that shipment time period can be reduced. Further, Mongla port of the country is not utilized properly for which it becomes almost ineffective. Efficiency and effectiveness in the transportation sector has not been created.

As such the economy has been lacking to ensure overall competitiveness.

Bangladesh does not use regional cooperation to mitigate the problems of Global Financial crisis. They did not utilize SAFTA or BIMSTEC to avoid the problems of the global crisis. Even to create opportunities they may effectively utilize regional cooperation.

The study shall examine change in real Gross domestic Product (in percentage) between Bangladesh and US from 1973 to 2008 in

Fig:-Figure 3: % Change in real GDP: Bangladesh versus the U.S.: 1973 - 2008 Percentage change in real GDP for Bangladesh and the U.S. is presented in Figure 3. It shows any co movement between Bangladesh and U.S. economy from 1973 to 2008. There seems to

be some co movement of the two series, but the co movement is very weak. The overall correlation coefficient is r = 0.1118 which is quite low. Further, when the U.S. economy and the world economy went into a major recession since the end of 2007, Bangladesh economy seems to have slowed down a bit, but it is still having healthy growth in 2008. It seems that although Bangladesh economy has some co movement with the U.S. economy, the co movement is very weak. This perhaps explains that Bangladesh economy is mostly escaping any serious repercussions from the U.S. and global meltdown. However, there could be a delayed effect, but this is not evident yet and one cannot ascertain that until 2009 data becomes available.

Now percentage change in industrial production index is shown in

Fig:- % Change in Industrial Production Index: Bangladesh versus the U.S. As an alternative measurement, % change in industrial production index for Bangladesh and the U.S. is presented in Figure 4. It also shows any co movement between Bangladesh and U.S. economy from 1973 to 2009. Similar to the real GDP series, there again appear to have some co movement of the two series, but the co movement is even weaker.

The overall correlation coefficient is r = 0.0549, which is very low and lower than the correlation between the real GDP series. Further, when the U.S. economy and the world economy went into a major recession since the end of 2007, Bangladesh economy seems to have slowed down a bit, but it is still having healthy and positive growth in 2008. It seems that although Bangladesh economy has some co movement with the U.S. economy, the co movement is very weak. This perhaps explains that Bangladesh economy is mostly escaping any serious repercussions from the U.S. and global meltdown. However, there could be a delayed effect, but this is not evident yet and this cannot be ascertained until 2009 data becomes available. Exchange rate in Taka per US Dollar for the period of 1973 to 2009 is shown in below

Fig: Trend in Taka per US Dollar: 1973 – 2009 Another indicator of the state of Bangladesh economy in relation to the U.S. economy is the exchange value of the Bangladesh currency against the U.S. dollar. The trend in this exchange value is presented in Figure 5. It is common knowledge that the U.S. dollar has depreciated quite a bit against the Euro and the Japanese yen over some time now and more so since the global crisis began. If the global crisis would have affected Bangladesh severely, the Bangladesh currency would have depreciated significantly. However, as Figure 5 shows, the value of Taka against the US dollar has remained stable since 2006 and continued to maintain its value against the U.S. dollar up until now (2009) and perhaps appreciated a bit against the dollar. It thus appears that Bangladesh currency and the economy showed quite resilience in the face of the evolving economic and financial crisis that began in 2007.

The impact of recession on our economy The Bangladesh economy has shown reasonable stability till now despite the threats from depressed external developments. However, the financial year 2009-10 (FY10) faces multiple downside risks. The major risk emanates from the fallout affects of the global financial crisis.

The economy has started to show some signs of slowdown especially in terms of export earnings and remittance inflows (Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies 2009). An economic crisis also means a social crisis all over the world and particularly in Asia with an estimated 60 million people remaining mired in poverty due to falling growth rate. Being a global player in the world economy especially in the garments export and wage earners as foreign expatriate, Bangladesh is no exception with this chain reaction.

In the milieu of current global economic slowdown and unprecedented uncertainty, the challenge for the country is to explore domestic market and focuses on some key sectors to robust the growth of the economy. There is no single formula or remedy to alleviate the

crisis. In this descriptive paper we want to emphasize what preventive measures Bangladesh can take to safeguard its economy and secure a better future for its citizens.

The world economy is currently experiencing the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression. With the spread of toxic assets arising from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis to the rest of the financial system, including the international financial system, major world economies have taken a massive hit resulting in negative growth rates in key countries or regions, including the US, EU and Japan. Many developed countries have also been infected by the contagion from China, Brazil, India and South Africa to the countries of South East Asia and Latin America. The magnitude of impact seems to depend on the extent of integration with the rest of the world (or to use World Bank jargon, the extent of liberalization that has taken place). This paper addresses itself to the task of assessing the likely impact that the GFC may have on Bangladesh. There is a consensus that the transmission mechanisms relevant for Bangladesh are limited to exports, remittances and imports. Since the capital account has not been liberalized, dramatic capital flows are unlikely to be an important source of vulnerability.

3.1 Impact on Export Bangladesh’s export earnings have risen rapidly since the early 1990s. Exports have grown from around 7 percent of GDP in 1991 to around 18 percent in 2006. The GDP growth rate has been consistently over 6 percent over the last few years despite a number of weather related shocks emanating from cyclones and floods. Two main sources of economic growth have been manufacturing and services, both crucially dependent on the RMG sector. The main driver of our exports sector is the ready-made garments industry (RMG) which accounts for almost four fifth of our total export earnings. Almost two and a half million people, ninety percent of them women, are employed in the RMG sector; while a large but undetermined number of people are involved in various ancillary and support services e.g. banking, insurance, transport etc. to this sector. The export sector is potentially vulnerable to the ongoing financial crisis as it heavily depends on the EU and US markets which have been badly hit.

However, Bangladesh has been facing problems in the EU market. Its exports to the EU grew by 3.6 percent in July-December 2008 while all other countries, with the exception of Sri Lanka, out-performed Bangladesh. In particular, Bangladesh has experienced problems in exports of shrimp, headgear, and jute goods and rawhide registering a drop in exports of these products in the range of 16-25 percent. Most unusually, even woven exports registered a negative growth. The main advantage of Bangladesh over its competitors is its price.

Exporters from Bangladesh have been cutting back on prices further in trying to cope with the crisis. Indeed, unit prices reveal that except category numbers 340, 659 and 239, there is a downward price trend for all other categories. This has helped Bangladesh to remain competitive in the US market. In the EU, Bangladesh is experiencing negative export growth for rawhides, jute and frozen fish. For rawhide, China as well as India is also experiencing negative growth. Exchange rate has important implications for export performance as it directly influences the price competitiveness of exporting countries, although it must be noted

that the exchange rate is not the sole determinant of a country’s export competitiveness.

Sharp depreciation of Euro and Pound Sterling; and stability of the Bangladeshi taka eroded Bangladesh’s competitiveness in Europe to an extent, reflected in the slowdown of Bangladesh exports to EU. As a result of economic recession decreases the demand of internal market. So the export of 2008-2009 was the static. This stays for first phase of FY 2009-2010 and thus 6 month the export growth was negative -6.26%.

With the better situation of recession in the 2nd phase, export position was good. Then January to June export growth was 14.39%.

Post recession, this sector is very good .In the 1st phase FY 2010-2011,this growth was 29.6% than the last FY 1st phase. In the 2nd phase increases the growth to53.53% but in the 3 rd phase it was 39.5%.

Totally first 10 month of FY 2010-2011,it was 40.88%.This growth was because of exporting Woven knit wear(38.58),primary jute(69.20),Jute products(34.88),Leather(36.38),frozen goods(53.62).

Bangladesh is a developing country of South East Asia. Its main indicator is the Export, Import, Remittance etc. It has many kinds of goods for export such as Ready Made Garments products, Lather products, Jute, Drugs, Plastic goods, Fish etc.RMG products are the major exported goods of Bangladesh. Recent economic recession has a small number of negative impacts on Export. To prevent any kind of economic disaster like recession we have to take long term steps for export sector. To sustain with the recent economic recession our government had announced two terms Incentive packages for increasing export. Some suggestions and recommendations for overcoming the recent economic recession are given below:  To give various incentive packages for the export.  To create new market exploration in the Middle East  To slow the rules of origin under the Generalized system of preferences  To increase the Export Development Fund (EDF) for giving the support to export.  To reduce the various service charge of exporting products.  To increase the rate of debt to the exporters easily.  To give cash incentive for the Ship breaking Industry  To give cash support to the Crust Leather Industry.  To give subsidy to the exporting of jute products.  To give the special facility to the IT and Software Industry.

Fig: Contribution of Export and GDP Share A Closer Look at the RMG Sector Bangladesh has become integrated with the global economy through exports of RMG. The contribution of woven garments and knitwear were 38.3 and 37.4 percent respectively in 2006-07. The industry has grown exponentially in terms of capacity, exports and employment (figures 2.1 and 2.2). At present Bangladesh exports account for about 2 percent of the $600 billion global textile and clothing market.

Ready-made garments export rose to $10.7 billion in 2007-08. Over the years, Bangladesh diversified its exports both in woven and knitwear. The share of knitwear increased, while that of woven fell. Within the RMG sector there has been diversification into different products: Bangladesh started as an exporter of shirts, and has subsequently diversified into trousers, jackets, T-shirt and sweaters. The share of shirts declined sharply, offset largely by rising contribution from trousers. The shift was made on the back of the emerging backward-linkage primary textile sector. Since 2006-07, jackets have emerged as a significant product and may start to replace trousers in the future. Within knitwear, both Tshirt and sweaters started to grow after 2005. Thus, the trend in the last few years is towards greater diversification and a distinct shift away from the lower end of the low end product range towards the upper end of the lower range - indicating Bangladesh’s emerging confidence and competitiveness in the market.

3.2 Impact on Imports The world economy is currently experiencing the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression. With the spread of toxic assets arising from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis to the rest of the financial system, including the international financial system, major world economies have taken a massive hit resulting in negative growth rates in key countries or regions, including the US, EU and Japan.

Because of recent economic recession the import cost of different goods was so high. In the FY OF 2008-2009, The cost of imported goods was so high. But in the first phase of FY 2009-10,it was decreasing. But in the second phase it also increasable .The import cost of FY2009-10 was 5.47%, but in the FY 2010-11,it was 40.49 which was very high for Bangladesh. This cost was because of settlement new power plant, importing machinery goods, Industrial raw materials, food products etc.

Many Developed countries have also been infected by the contagion from China, Brazil, India and South Africa impact seems to depend on the Extent of integration with the rest of the world (or to use World Bank argon, the extent of liberalization that has taken place).

This paper addresses itself to the task of assessing the likely impact that the GFC may have on Bangladesh. There is a consensus that the transmission mechanisms relevant for Bangladesh are limited to exports, remittances and imports. Since the capital account has not been liberalized, dramatic capital flows are unlikely to be an important source of vulnerability. Another possible source of weakness relates to aid dependency and the likelihood of diminished aid flows in the wake of the meltdown.

The possibility of an adverse impact on agriculture has not been raised in the current debate. However, low world and Indian prices may cause agricultural prices to be depressed, especially since Bangladesh imports significant quantities of agricultural produce, including cereals, from time to time. The current rice price situation suggests that this may be happening, causing farm incentives to be eroded.

However, the main focus of this paper is to review the recent performance of Bangladesh in terms of three key variables: exports, remittances and imports, to assess to what extent the GFC poses a threat to these key dimensions of economic activity.

In order to understand the nature of impact of increased imports in the economy, it is important to take a more disaggregated view. From the composition of imports it is clear that capital machinery, crude petroleum products, cotton, yarn and fertilizer, textiles and articles, were the key commodities whose imports increased significantly. In other words, the nature of imports suggests that these were meant either to increase production or raise productivity in manufacturing industry and agriculture. The benefits of lower world prices are already being felt in Bangladesh, especially through lower inflation, including lower food and energy prices.

Fig: Quantity of Imported products.

Suggestions and Recommendations for Import Activity Bangladesh is normally an import based country of South Asia. It imports many kinds of goods and services from the world. So it takes a flexible import policy for the importers. Recent economic recession had a small impact on the import .So our economy has to take some steps for the import policy those are given below: •

To easy and flexible the import policy with pretending the global import policy and free market economy.

•

To decrease the import tax for the industrial products, machineries and capital goods.

•

To give the special facilities for importing Technologies products.

•

To give the import support for export oriented industry.

•

To import quantity and healthful products.

3.4 Impact on Remittance Remittance flows to Bangladesh have grown rapidly over the last ten years from around 3 percent of GDP in 1995 to around 9.5 percent today. A total of some five million Bangladeshis are estimated to be resident overseas. While initially most of the migrant labor went to the Middle East, mainly to Saudi Arabia, there has been considerable diversification of destination countries in more recent years. Today, migrants are found in significant concentration all over the Far East and Europe, including Malaysia, South Korea and Japan and in Germany and Italy. Other traditional destinations (USA and UK) also remain very important both as a source of remittance and a favored destination.

Because of global economic recession, we can see the negative impact on the manpower exporting to the Middle East and Malaysia. Besides the recession, the political instability also responsible of none exporting manpower to the North Africa’s country and the Arab Spring also responsible to the Muslim country.

In the FY 2009-10, 4.27 lac people go out of the home for the work which was 34.31% less than the last FY. In the FY 2010-11, 3.42 lac people go out of home for the work which was less than 4.83 than the last year.

Remittances play a crucial role in the Bangladesh economy today. At the macro level, it has helped to ease our foreign exchange constraint, stabilizing the exchange rate and allowing Bangladesh to import much needed raw materials, intermediate goods and capital equipment. Comfortable reserves of foreign exchange have also contributed to overall macro stability and have reduced aid dependency, along with rapid growth of our export sector.

From 2003 to 2008, worldwide flow of remittances (i.e. the global remittance market) almost doubled (from USD 206 billion to USD 375 billion). A similar trend is observed in the case of developing countries (From USD143 billion to 283 billion). In other words, the GFC has not dampened remittance flows, at least until 2008. This is also the experience of Bangladesh which posted a dramatic rise in remittance growth in 2008. Figure 3.1 shows the rapid rise in remittances as a proportion of GDP, from around 3.2 percent to 9.6 percent over a period of 12 years.

Fig: Trends Of labour force Export and remittance.

There has been a gradual change in the share of remittance flows by regions. From 1980 to 2006, the inflow of remittances from the Middle-East remained above 70 percent. However, since 2006, there appears to have been a shift that is taking place with remittances increasingly coming from new sources, like USA, Canada, UK, Germany, Italy, Malaysia, and Japan reflecting considerable diversification of labor flows.

Fig: Country Based labour force Exporting.

Recommendations for Labor Force Exporting and Remittance: Bangladesh is a growing developing country of the world. It has a vast number of people.

This people are considered as human capital for the country. It has great number of labour force’s it is our responsibilities to find out the employment of them. Though Bangladesh has a small number of employment opportunity. It has to take various steps for employed them.

Man power exporting is the main key of the employment. Bangladesh has a great number of expatriate for the various countries. They gives us a good number of remittance which is the important factor contributing to our economy. So it is our duty to employ them as expatiator many countries.

Some suggestions recommendations are given below:  To increase the new diplomacy with the Middle East  To initiative for opening the new labor wing for Africa, East Europe, Latin America etc.  To established new training institute for training the people who are interested to go out of home.  To create or search the new labour market to the whole world  Especially to the Middle East and Muslims country  To give the financial support by the Provasi Kallan Bank.  To establish the welfare branch of Labour Force Employment Bureau.  To digitalized the going process of foreign.  To appreciate the expatriate of giving money legally.  To give them various investment opportunity for the Expatriates like Wage Earners Development Bond, US dollars Investment bond, US dollars premium Bond etc.  To give the chance for investment of expatriates as FDI. Supplementary 4.1Chapter outline of expected thesis/report

Every expected research or report paper should have a tentative chapter outline. This paper contains of three major parts such Introductory, Body, Summary and Conclusion .Chapter outline of this expected paper is given below: Share of each part of the study / report (%) Name of part 1. Introductory 2. Body 3. Summary & conclusions Total =

Desired share 20% 60% 20% 100%

Acceptable share 25% 50% 25% 100%

4.2 Time reference In the study collected data shows the specific time line. The main purpose of the study is to know about the starting of The Recent Economic Recession and Its impact on our domestic economy especially on RMG sector and remittance. The data and information are collected to analyze this sector from the time line 2007 to 2009.We know that recent economic recession was started in 2007 from USA and lasted for 2009.To describe this situation, there is also used different time slot which was placed in different time. There are also used different data for describing the impact of recession on RMG sector and Remittance. Collected data are totally fare, transparent and correct which are not biased including specific time. There is no possibility of confused about data and misleading the study.

SWOT Analysis, Recommendations and Conclusion.

5.1 SWOT Analysis of the Bangladesh Economy due to Global financial crisis Strengths Weaknesses 1. Bangladesh 1. Bangladesh economy is not doesn’t fully open; possess Efficient and effective economy.

2. Though expatriates from abroad are returning but foreign Remittance did not decline.

2. Regularly expatriates from abroad are returning which many causes to decline foreign Remittance.

Opportunities Threats 1.Bangladesh economy can 1.Political instability have positive impact if may production cost may be occur at any time; lowered accompanied with decrease of Transportation cost.

2. Volume of diversified exportable commodities can be raised as low price elasticity of products of Bangladesh.

3.New labor market can be

2. Balance of payment position May be worsening off. Still depends On foreign aid and loans.

found and manpower can be migrated provided they have been trained as per the 3. Foreign direct requirement of the foreign investment may be market; declined;

3. Among the financial institutions banks are playing vital role. Still banking sector of Bangladesh Is not weak.

3. Overall domestic investment declines and Govt. projected GDP growth rate at 5.5-6% in the 4. Bangladesh Taka may be year 2009-10. stronger so that less amount may be paid against US$ to import 4. Price of foreign Products. importable 4. Infrastructure is Commodities are weak; Gas-power and declining. energy sectors As such are not business 5. Inflation due to external production cost environment sector may be declined. is declining.

Friendly.

5.

Still exchange rate of Taka Against 5. Population USD is not growth rate is affected. high.

6. Young entrepreneur our may be asset to create opportunities For prosperity of the economy.

6. Information asymmetry is Prevailing in market.

4. Currently foreign exchange reserve is very high which may causes negative impact on the domestic economy.

5. Lack of Corporate governance and corporate social responsibility may further aggravate the situation of the domestic economy and business Environment may be weakened.

6. Capital market of the country may be restructured so that supply side Deficiency can be driven out and foreign direct investment in the 6. Development share market can be raised. strategy does not include bottom up approach .As a result the coordination in between top down approach and bottom up approach does not occur. Upzilla’s are still neglected to become development 7. Coordination between center and grass import substitute root level is industrialization depriving from process and export lead Getting benefits.

7. Unexplored labor market and export market may give the scope for raising the foreign remittances.

growth strategy may help to overcome the problem of 7. Lack of chronic deficit in Balance diversified of trade position. exportable commodities.

7. Leadership crisis in the organization at three phases starting from Junior, mid and top level management.

5.2 Recommendations and conclusion Why Bangladesh seems to have avoided the adverse impacts of this massive 2007-08 global economic and financial crisis? The answer perhaps lies in several factors: Firstly, Bangladesh economy has become gradually more integrated with the rest of the world, especially in the trade sector, but it is still not highly integrated with the U.S. and the rest of the world.

Secondly, in the trade sector, Bangladesh exports are dominated by readymade garments exports (RMG). But Bangladeshi garment exports are concentrated in the lower price range in the global market. As such, when the economy in advanced countries was in recession, the demand for the higher price range garments declined sharply, but not the lower price range garments products. As a result, Bangladeshi garments exports did not suffer much due to the current crisis, at least not yet.

Thirdly, Bangladesh has not integrated much with the rest of the world in terms of Banking and financial services integration. It has a long way to go in terms of deepening financial integration with the rest of the world. This may have worked as a blessing in disguise for the country and thus provides a valuable lesson that policy makers need to pursue financial integration with prudence and caution.

Fourthly, partly because of the third factor mentioned above, Bangladesh banking and financial sector has not been exposed to the toxic and subprime assets emanating from the U.S. banking and financial sector (identified as the major cause of this global crisis), thus shielding the country from major meltdown.

To mitigate the problem of the global turmoil it is necessary to create ď ś Employment opportunity, ď ś Production of low cost product ď ś Maintaining the quality,

 Improvement of supply chain management  Export diversification.  Those who will be unemployed from the domestic industries aswell as returned from abroad after losing their job, it is the duty for the Government to create employment opportunity for both the group.  Solar electricity system side by side nuclear power system should be introduced.

Govt. is trying to solve the problem of electricity, Coal, Gas problems. But implementation process is not easy.  Actually the country needs proper and quality leadership as well as efficient and effective three tiers of management in every sphere i.e. Top level, mid level and lower level management at all level of functional organizations.  Strategic leadership should be accompanied with strategic formulation and strategic implementation. Starting from the junior level of management to the top level management, boosting up of development strategies should take the center stage.  Any sort of development project should be well coordinated by the parliament members and Upzilla Chairmen. Mutual inclusive system of delegation of power should be designed  Imam (2009) comments that the domestic economy of Bangladesh will not be affected in the short run are correct. However, in the mid and long run the situation may be different  Adamu (2009) observations should be cautiously taken by the policy makers of the country. His argument that this crisis will cause fall in commodity prices, decline in export, lower portfolio and FDI inflow, fall in equity market, decline in remittance from abroad etc. may occur in the economy of Bangladesh  Ahsan(2009) cautions that active monitoring of the capital structure of the banking system would be important to retain public confidence should be followed by the Bangladesh Bank. Bangladesh Bank should implement strengthening the commercial banks.  Khalily’s (2008) comments should be carefully taken by the policy makers so that Bangladesh economy may be free from danger due to gradual openness of the economy.  Government of Bangladesh must be more cautious about the global financial crisis.

Govt. should take appropriate decision beyond the interest of a very thin group of vested quarter .Depending on the appropriate decision, it may be possible to avail the opportunities of the global financial crisis.  Though the country is following free market economy, whenever any sort of imperfection creates market distortion, regulatory measures should be taken.  Global cooperation is an important ingredient where real, monetary and also external sector should work to complement each other for strengthening macroeconomic variables. Bangladesh should be cautious to overcome the global financial crisis. Without the cooperation among the world leaders, it will not be possible to address the global financial repression syndrome.  Developed and developing nations should work for their common interest and the danger of financial engineering should be overcome by structured market system where up to certain level market can play without any sort of hindrance but when market turmoil starts then there must be regulatory measures.  Synergy should be created through total quality management in every sphere for which employment generation and redistribution of income effect is the prime

concern for to minimize the risk of the crisis and take all hearted effort to transform the crisis to opportunities for the Bangladesh.

The important lesson to be learned from this crisis that Bangladesh need strong domestic industry that is not export dependent. Emphasizing and investing more on infrastructure development, energy, building quality human resources, tourism and development of businesses in which we have competitive advantage can only safeguard the economy from any future disaster or economic recession. Currently the Bangladeshi economy is just two trick ponies: we either export RMG or our unskilled labor. We need to diversify our export basket with range of products and services and for that government subsidy and patronization are very important. The most important suggestions and recommendations are discussed below:  Government of Bangladesh needs to identify sectors that would cater to local demand first but also have big export potential as well.  Cement and pharmaceutical should be an obvious target but others such as leather, agro-based and even tourism should also be given priority.  We build roads and bridges that last only for few days and subsidize sectors that really have no potential growth.  Last but not the least, building on human capital is a must. Exploiting cheap labor domestically and exporting unskilled labor would only create negative image, social trauma and would eventually back fire someday and we must be prepared for that.  Political wisdom and farsightedness is required. The task force may be more active for strengthening the economic progress of the society. Under political leadership, it should integrate economist, social workers, and members of all the political parties, civil society, media personalities and bankers to ensure safety in the face of economic turmoil. Minimizing the corruption and eradication of rent seeking is urgently needed.  Planning should be made in three phases: short run, mid-term and long run.

For short run and mid-tern, those who are unemployed must get financial help through creation of social security or employment for 100 days or less for food program. However, for long-run strategy should be built up for creation of permanent income opportunity. Transitory income may give temporary consumption pattern. For long-term development, people need permanent income, which will lead to create permanent consumption habit.  Empowerment of women is very much needed so that they can effectively play vital role in the decision making process. Female workers who will lose their job especially from the garments sector due to global financial crisis may

be able to get job. As such creation of alternative job facilities are very important. Proper training facilities and creation of alternative job facilities are required.  Import substitution industries and export oriented industries should be set up.

There should be a vertical and horizontal coordination between these two strategies. The proposed budget has tried to provide special facility in this regard.  Competitiveness, efficiency and effectiveness should be encouraged in the business environment of Bangladesh. It should create a benchmarking of international standard through production of high quality of product at low cost. Moreover, transportation cost should be decreased. Opportunities, which have been created through global financial crisis, can be earned after using competitiveness in the production process as well as creation of new exportable market.  Main attention of the budget has been giving to create employment opportunities so that redistribution of income effect can be done with the broader aspect of poverty elimination..  Monetary policy should be more effective so that investment rises but inflation can be reduced. Inflation should be reduced to 4 per cent so that real rate of return becomes positive. Readjustment of exchange rate should be made without any sort of favor towards USD. Calculation of the real effective exchange rate should be done properly.  Fiscal policy should be redesigned to reduce indirect tax and to raise direct tax. Tax management system should be improved so that Tax-GDP ratio can be raised. Motivation for giving taxes should be increased. Debt/GDP ratio should be declined. Implementation of the fiscal policy should be done properly.  Labor management for sending labor to abroad should be properly developed as per the need of foreign nations. New labor market for Bangladeshi nationals in abroad should be created. However, before sending laborers abroad, it should be investigated whether they have any previous criminal records and places where they are going to do their jobs are okay.  Negotiation skills of the Bangladeshi diplomats should be increased so that they can use economic diplomacy and create market access in the global arena. More career diplomats should be appointed in the top posts of the embassy. Economic diplomacy to expand trading system should be arranged.

Non-resident Bangladeshis may act as a goodwill ambassadors. They can work as an intermediary to bridge between foreign buyers and domestic sellers. Incentive may be provided to them. Integrated Marketing Communications skill should be utilized for arranging export of the products.

Simultaneously, high quality products are required to be produced. This may ultimately lead to rise in export.  Regional cooperation among SAFTA, BIMSTEC etc. may be strengthened.

True sense of regional cooperation may provide the stimulus for the economic development of the country. They should take initiatives like ASEAN to eradicate the problem of global financial crisis.  Capital market should be properly utilized for long-term industrial financing.

Moreover, transparency, accountability should be established so that global fund managers get interested in investing in the security market of Bangladesh. Investment for construction of bridge, port and electricity production and also long term industrial financing should be arranged from the capital market. More companies should be enlisted in the Stock market. As such proper initiatives should be implemented.  Main idea of free market economy that market will determine by demand and supply without any interference in a transparent manner should be replaced with the structured market where if perfect competition fails to a certain degree or market distortion takes place then regulation may be imposed on the market.  More concern should be given to food security. As such agrarian reform is required. Equal development strategic formulation and policy implementation for industrialization as well as agricultural sector should be taken.

Development of agricultural sector should be boosted up. BADC should be revived and private-public organization should work together to develop competitiveness for distribution of fertilizers, pesticides, seeds, agricultural machineries, etc. Moreover, the present Govt. should take initiatives to protect the danger of Global warming scenario.  Corporate governance in true sense should be implemented in different organizations. Transparency, accountability and dissemination of information should be established. Corruption should be minimized so that it doesn't retard economic development process.  Special attention should be given to existing jute, leather, pharmaceuticals, handicrafts, frozen foods and tea industries. There must be effective policies, which can be properly utilized for economic development. Govt. must take imitative so that the country can export finished products rather than primary products.

 Younger generation needs special attention. Employment bank, which was earlier established for job creation for the youth, failed to do work.

Restructuring of the employment bank is required.  Though development is a continuous process, the vision and mission of the present government should be confined within the range of next five years only. If they can fulfill the dream of the masses, then they will be appreciated.

Under this planning PRSP-II may be replaced with five-year economic plan and we must be very careful that whatever plan is taken is properly implemented and redistribution of the wealth is done for arranging social justice and removing income inequality.  Population growth rate is much higher in Bangladesh than the data published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 

As such Govt. should take special measures to motivate people for family planning.

ACRONYMS GFC NBER BER ADP ADB BEF BB BBS RMG BIDS BASIC SAFTA BIBM GATT GSP SME B/E CCI & E FDBP ERC EPB EPS FER FTT ITC

Global Financial Crisis National Bureau of Economic Research Bangladesh Economic Review Annul Development Program Asian Development Bank Bangladesh Economic Forum Bangladesh Bank Bangladesh Bureau of statistics Ready Made Garments Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies Bangladesh Small Industries and Commerce South Asian Free Trade Agreements Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management General Agreement on Tariff and Trade Generalized system of Preferences Small and Medium Enterprise Bill of exchange Chief Controller of Import & Export Foreign Document Bill Purchase Export Registration Certificate Export Promotion Bureau Earning Per Share Foreign Exchange Regulation Foreign Telegraphic Transfer International Trade Control

ICT International Communication Technology IRC Import Registration Certificate L/C Letter of Credit MOF Ministry of Finance Currency Code of Bangladesh=Bangladesh Taka References 1. Bangladesh Economic Review (BER)-2011, 2010, 2009 2. Bangladesh Bank (BB) 3. Bangladesh Bureau Statistics (BBS) 4. Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) 5. Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update-june2009 6. Bangladesh Manpower Exporting Bureau 7. Bureau of Export Development 8. Ministry of Foreign and Affairs 9. Asian Development Bank (ADB) 10. Adamu, Abdul (2009); the Effects of Global Financial Crisis on Bangladesh Economy, 11. Ahsan ,Syed M.(2009): Global Financial Crisis and Bangladesh, March 12. Anwar, G M Javed (2009):” Regulatory Governance Approach to Curb Financial Crises: The U. S. Economic Perspective”, paper presented at the Asian Business Research Conference held at BIAM foundation, Dhaka on April 11 and 12.

13. Asian Development Bank (ADB) (2009): Bangladesh: Quarterly Economic Update, June Aversa, Jeannine(2009) 14. Ministry of Finance, Govt. of Bangladesh Aug 21 Bangladesh Arthanaitic Samikhya2009, 15. David (2009): Financial Crisis: A Great Opportunity for E-Commerce, 16. Imam, Mahmood Osman (2009):”Global Financial crisis and its impact on the economy of Bangladesh” 17. Khalily,M.A.Baqui(2008):”Global financial crisis nudist impact on Financial markets in Bangladesh”, paper presented in the Seminar on Global Financial crisis organized

by Dhaka Stock Exchange on 15th November 18. World Bank (2009)”Swimming against the tide: how developing countries are coping with the global crisis” 19. Talukder Md. Nurun Nabi (2009) :” Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on International Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on International Migration: Bangladesh Perspective.

20. Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies. (2009) Recommendations for the National Budget 2009/2010 21. Selim Raihan and Enam A. Khan (2009). Global Economic meltdown: Financial and Fiscal Initiatives for Trade and Migrant Workers. Bangladesh Economic Outlook.

22. Syed Ishtiaque Reza (2009). Bangladesh Economy FY 2008-2009: “The Term, A Business Monthly 23. Sajjadur Rahman (2009). Labor Migration in Slow Lane: The Daily Star, Star Business, 19 June, 24. Ahmed, A (2009). Bangladesh Economy Beset with a gloom: “The Term, A Business Monthly”, 25. Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update by Asian Development Bank (ADB), March 2009

26. Other www.imf.com. www.worldbank.org.co www.bids-bd.com www.bb-org.com www.mof.com