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UNFCCC STUDY – GUIDE
Prepared by:
David-Jan Bosschaert & Jack Smith On the date of: August 2014
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Word of Welcome Secretary General of Rotaract Global Model United Nations 2013
Dear Delegates, It is my absolute pleasure to welcome you to the 2014 edition of Rotaract Global Model United Nations. We are privileged to hold this conference in Westminster, a city that has been a bastion of diplomacy and debate for centuries – and which saw the birth of the UN nearly 60 years ago. Having engaged with Model UN since my school days, I can confidently say that the activity is in my blood. I sincerely believe that there is no better activity for young people trying to engage with the issues currently troubling our world today. It goes without saying that these issues are dangerous, as they are numerous, and I could not even begin to summarise them in such a limited space. However, simply from reading your applications, I have been inspired by the massive contribution young people are willing to make to solving these problems. This is why I have decided that the conference shall be based around the theme: Leaders of Tomorrow. I do not mean to suggest by this that our conference will nurture you and prepare you to make future contributions. Rather, I propose that you are already leaders – young people poised to make a meaningful difference to international affairs. With our conference as your unique gathering place and speaking platform, I can guarantee that your debate contributions will not simply be academic exercises. Instead, they will form part of a meaningful policy proposal that Rotaract will ensure reaches the desks of the UN. With this collective spirit in mind, I hope you are extremely excited to read the Study Guide of your committee. Having handpicked your chairs personally, I can assure you that they are worldleaders in their field. Put simply, there are few people who are more qualified to write this guide than them. So, use their sterling work as a starting point for your research, and be inspired to read and research far beyond the confines of this guide. I feel extremely honoured to welcome this unprecedented gathering of great young minds to London. I am fascinated to hear the solutions you propose, and pledge to do all in my power to translate them into meaningful political change. Yours Sincerely, Adam McLaren Secretary General, Rotaract Global Model United Nations 2014
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An Introduction from the Director – David-Jan Bosschaert
David Bosschaert is a young Belgian-Filipino legal scholar and historian. Coming from an international background, he learned how to master different languages at a very early age, and never ceased to develop these skills ever since. David is most interested in international politics and has been a very active MUN participant in several capacities, ranging from delegate to Secretary-General. In the past he also helped to organize six editions of the Belgian Youth Parliament, which brought him to his current position as Vice president of the first and second edition of the Flemish Youth Parliament. Beside his involvement in politics and in his university’s student union he spends his free time as an organist and as a conductor of a Polish amateur choir in Belgium.
Regards,
David-Jan Bosschaert, Director of the UNFCCC, RotoractMUN 2014
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An Introduction from the Assistant Director – Jack Smith
Jack is going into his second year of studies in Human, Social and Political Sciences at the University of Cambridge, with his specialization being in Social Anthropology. Although he, like David-Jan, has a multinational background, holding both British and Canadian passports, his command of languages other than his native English sadly leaves something to be desired, excepting his ability to speak an adequate amount of French and a small amount of Bahasa Malaysia. Having been a participant in MUN debates across several different continents for the better part of the past decade, Jack has attended in this space of time about half a dozen conferences, with personal highlights for him being his attendance of THIMUN in 2011, where he represented Senegal in GA1 (DISEC), and LIMUN in 2014, where he won a ‘Best Delegate’ award representing the USA in SPECPOL. Outside of MUN, Jack has a range of interests, some academic – such as the comparative study of religion – and some less so, such as his interest in Gospel music and Darkroom photography. He is looking forward to working with the members of his committee as well as the RotoractMUN Secretariat to make this conference a success. Regards, Jack Smith Assistant Director for the UNFCCC, RotoractMUN 2014
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Introduction to the UNFCCC
Established in 1992 and effective from 1994 onwards, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aimed to, in the treaty’s own words, “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. All UN member states are currently party to the UNFCCC, which has expanded significantly in scope since 1992 with the introduction of successive agreements related to anthropogenic climate change such as those formulated in Kyoto, Bali and Copenhagen. The UNFCCC Secretariat, currently housed in Bonn, Germany, is tasked therefore with both attempting to limit the extent of anthropogenic climate change and adapt to the current and predicted effects of anthropogenic climate change upon the earth’s populace. It is thus very extensive in scope and in its requirement for cooperation – in order to take any substantive action on climate change, it’s necessary for a wide variety of UN member states to cooperate and, very importantly, compromise.
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Topic A – Climate Finance
A.#Statement#of#the#problem#
1.
Introduction,
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, or FCCC for short) resulted from the so-called “Earth Summit”1 held in Rio back in 1992. It has the intention of making sure that climate change is implemented in all United Nations institutions and member states, having been ratified by all 196 United Nations member states2. The FCCC has been negotiated in order to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”3. This is the ultimate goal of trying to control global warming by bringing down the presence of greenhouse gas in the earth’s atmosphere. In order to achieve the goals set out in the framework convention, both small and big projects alike need financing, in particular in developing countries. The Standing Committee of Finance therefore has guidelines in order to know which type of projects should be prioritised, both thematically and geographically. These projects are currently financed through the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), and their current conditions will be discussed in detail in order to comprehend how the current main system of climate change grants and loans to developing countries operates.
2.
Aid,to,developing,countries,
Within the FCCC developing countries were promised “effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology […] [taking] fully into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties”4. The financial part of this promise by developed countries was taken care of in later protocols, foreseeing the possibility of financing particular types of projects helping to combat climate 1
Officially called the “United Nations Conference on Environment and Development” (UNCED). As well as by non-UN members Niue, the Cook Islands and the European Union. 3 Art. 2 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf 4 Art. 4(7) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. -62
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change. During our conference the FCCC is invited to re-examine the present conditions under which these project can be financed. B.#Analysis#of#the#problem#and#Past#Actions#Taken# As stated before, the lack of financial aid to combat climate change puts the developing countries at a disadvantage compared to developed countries. The FCCC therefore came up with both technology transfer and financial aid schemes in order to assist developing countries in their endeaveours to combat climate change within their territories. The financial aid mechanisms are currently under revision by this committee, since the conditions imposed on developing countries might be too stringent or on the contrary too relaxed. Let us therefore take a closer look at the way these FCCC financing mechanisms work.
3.
FCCC,financing,mechanisms,
Annex II to the FCCC contains the list of 24 signatories5 who have pledged to financially aid developing countries in their fight against climate change, in addition to their already existing development aid to those countries. The list contains only 24 parties6 of the grand total of 198 who have ratified to the FCCC7. This means that only these 24 parties did undertake the obligation to give financial and technical support to developing countries as well as to the socalled “economies in transition” (EITs)8. EIT’s are considered to be neither developed nor developing countries for the purpose of the FCCC. One should also note that the number of EITs defined in Annex I of the FCCC used to be 119, but has changed from 11 to 12 due to the splitting up of Czechoslovakia)10, now encompassing Belarus, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Russian Federation, Slovakia and Ukraine. It should also be noted that within the FCCC the term “developing country” is used for those countries which aren’t in the list of 43 “industrial countries”11 mentioned in Annex I12. This list 5
The list of 24 signatories to the FCCC who have also ratified Annex II contains Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, the European Economic Community (now succeeded by the European Union), Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1348.php 6 Turkey was originally also in this list of parties to the FCCC which had also signed up to Annex II, but decided to withdraw by an amendment that entered into force 28 June 2002, pursuant to decision 26/CP.7 adopted at COP.7. http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1348.php 7 These are 23 member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as well as the European Union. 8 The term “economies in transition” (EITs) was coined in 1992 in order to refer to a group of 14 former Soviet republics in Europe (including the Russian Federation) and other former centrally-planned Eastern Europe counries. 9 http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf 10 http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php 11 This list contains Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, the European Union, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States/ 12 http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf -7-
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of 43 countries contains the 24 signatories of Annex II, the 12 present-day EITs and some other countries13. This negative definition of “developing country” means that the term may cover other countries than in other United Nations documents which define the concept differently. Types of aid Countries having signed up to Annex II distinguish two types of aid, being financial and technical support. Our discussion will focus on the financial aid, given to projects reducing greenhouse gas emissions – commonly referred to as “climate change mitigation” – and to projects manageing the impact of climate change – also known as “climate change adaptation”. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) The current system of financial aid contains grants and loans, and is managed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF)14. This independent organization was founded in October 1991 as a $1 billion pilot program of the World Bank15 and is the most vital institution in obtaining these FCCC grants and loans. We will therefore carefully examine the current set of conditions that GEF uses in order to have an idea on how developing countries and NGOs are getting funding for their climate change initiatives. The GEF’s six conditions are as follows16: 1. It is undertaken in an eligible country. It is consistent with national priorities and programs. 2. It addresses one or more of the GEF Focal Areas, improving the global environment or advance the prospect of reducing risks to it. 3. It is consistent with the GEF operational strategy. 4. It seeks GEF financing only for the agreed-on incremental costs on measures to achieve global environmental benefits. 5. It involves the public in project design and implementation. 6. It is endorsed by the government(s) of the country/ies in which it will be implemented. Let us now study these six GEF conditions in a more detailed way. 1. It is undertaken in an eligible country. It is consistent with national priorities and programs. The first condition is the most straight-forward one. Paragraph 9(a) of the GEF Instrument stipulates that “GEF grants that are made available within the framework of the financial mechanisms of the conventions referred to in paragraph 6 shall be in conformity with the eligibility criteria decided by the Conference of the Parties of each convention, as provided under the arrangements or agreements referred to in paragraph 27.”17. This means that an “eligible country” is determined by the FCCC itself. According to the FCCC a “developing country” is a signatory to the convention who isn’t listed in Annex I, which basically means that 155 countries can qualify under this first conditions18. 13
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php 15 http://www.thegef.org/gef/whatisgef and http://www.thegef.org/gef/Areas_work 16 http://www.thegef.org/gef/who_can_apply 17 http://www.thegef.org/gef/instrument 18 http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf -814
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2. It addresses one or more of the GEF Focal Areas, improving the global environment or advance the prospect of reducing risks to it. These “GEF Focal Areas” are clearly listed19 and constitute the first additional requirement to be met when applying for FCCC project funds. These GEF Focal Areas are rather general, and it therefore doesn’t seem to difficult for a given project to fit into at least one of these focal areas. Since they are so broad, it remains to be seen what their added value is when selecting the projects that qualify for funding. It might therefore be suggested that the GEF might get rid of this condition for lack of transparency or efficiency. Removing additional requirements to access to financial aid is a possible way of increasing the take-up of the climate change loans and grants. 3. It is consistent with the GEF operational strategy. The GEF’s operational strategy is the long-term idea that the GEF wants to pursue. This comes in quite naturally, and is the standards practice in many governmental and non-governmental organizations giving financial aids to projects. 4. It seeks GEF financing only for the agreed-on incremental costs on measures to achieve global environmental benefits. This fourth condition entails that the environmental benefits should be global, which makes sense, since the FCCC aims to tackle global warming on a whole-scale basis. It also states that incremental costs need to be agreed upon in advance, thus excluding budget overruns and corruption. This condition is in itself more of a principle, and will be applied depending on the conditions of every single project. 5. It involves the public in project design and implementation. Public participation is key when it comes to realizing a project. This requirement has been introduced in order to make sure that the adequate stakeholders are represented and can voice their concerns over a particular project. It also avoids the phenomenon of the so-called “white elephant”, wherein local expertise isn’t used, and schemes are implemented which in practice won’t work. This committee could consider enlargeing the scope of the public participation in climate change projects in developing countries. One could suggest to establish a more elaborate list of stakeholder interaction, or even of a necessity for a project to respond to a local need or concern. All of this should nevertheless remain within the general aim of tackling climate change on a global level, also mention in the fourth condition, which mentioned the necessity of generating “global environmental benefits”. 6. It is endorsed by the government(s) of the country/ies in which it will be implemented. Besides the public support mentioned in the fifth condition, it is also vital for the government of the state in which the project will be implemented to agree upon the way it’s supposed to work. Governmental permits might be necessary, and collaboration of governmental institutions is vital in order to achieve success. State involvement might also ensure that project don’t duplicate 19
http://www.thegef.org/gef/Areas_work
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existing schemes, and that projects can be integrated in government action plans tackling global warming. Beyond the previously mentioned six criteria, it remains to be seen whether additional criteria are necessary. These will be at the discretion of the signatory states to the FCCC, and might include more elaborate transparency or anti-corruption measures. Delegations may also ask for a more comprehensive wording of the existing six criteria.
C.,Proposed,Solutions, The current framework which englobes the grants and loans in developing countries is up for amending during this session of our committee. FCCC signatory states are invited to think about ways to improve the current way these criteria, or alternatively to get rid of some of them for lack of being feasable or transparent. The solutions are to be proposed by the delegates present in this meeting of the FCCC, which doesn’t include every single signatory party.
D.#Bloc#Positions# Within the FCCC the predominant division exists between developing countries and developed countries. We will therefore very briefly outline the bloc positions of both categories within the convention.
4.
Developing,countries,
The group of developing countries is inclined to ask for a more lenient way of getting access to loans and grants for climate change projects. More conditions mean more paperwork and less spontaneous initiatives which might be eligible for funding. Developing countries would therefore like to see the number of criteria diminuished, or in case that wouldn’t be possible to achieve a loosening of the present six conditions put forward by the GEF. The less stringent conditions, the more likely that small locally driven initiates do get the funding they need.
5.
Developed,countries,
The small group of 43 “industrial countries” also has interests at stake within a possible overhaul of the current set of criteria. They might call for more transparency and accountability, and for a higher degree of involvement of the relevant stakeholders in developing countries. The fact that human rights aren’t explicitly mentioned might equally be a concern that the developed countries could address. E. Thinker’s (Question A Resolution Must Answer) - 10 -
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Here are some questions a resolutions should answer. 1. Is the current FCCC treaty efficient enough to tackle climate change? 2. What role should the GEF continue to play in granting FCCC funding to developing countries? 3. Is the current set of criteria used by the GEF inclusive enough in order to allow for smallscale and/or citizen-driven projects to be included in this list? 4. Do we need additional conditions in order to finance projects aiming to combat climate change in developing countries?
F.#Recommended#Readings# The FCCC itself, including Annex I and II: http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/c onveng.pdf http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php On the work of the Global Environment Facility (GEF): http://www.thegef.org/gef/whatisgef Gustavo FONSECA, From Rio to Rio: A 20-Year Journey to Green the World’s Economies, ISBN: 978-1-939339-00-3 (http://www.thegef.org/gef/sites/thegef.org/files/publication/4.%20From%20Rio%20to%20Rio %20%20A%2020%20Year%20Journey%20To%20Green%20the%20World%E2%80%99s%20Econ omies%20%282014%29.pdf ) On the GEF’s Focal Areas: http://www.thegef.org/gef/Areas_work On the role of the UNEP within the GEF: http://www.unep.org/dgef/HowtoAccessGEFFinancing/tabid/54349/Default.aspx On the role of the World Bank within the GEF: http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/evaluations/gef A US Congressional report of June 3rd 2013 regarding the GEF’s work: Richard K. LATTANZIO, International Environmental Financing: The Global Environment Facility (GEF), (http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/210680.pdf).
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Topic B – Adapting to Rising Sea Levels A. Statement,of,the,Problem,
Rising sea levels could prove to be one of the most challenging effects of anthropogenic (manmade) climate change facing humankind over the course of the next century. As the evidence supporting the phenomenon of anthropogenic climate change becomes more damning with each Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, dealing with the effects of anthropogenic climate change has become one of the most pressing issues facing governments, and by extension the United Nations, today. Although it won’t be necessary for this topic, and for this committee, to know the precise details about how a rise in global average temperatures will cause sea level rises, it is useful to know at least the basics. Rises in sea levels due to climate change are being caused by and will be caused by two different mechanisms. One is expansion of the existing water in the world’s oceans, lakes and streams in volume due to the fact that water (in liquid form at least) expands in volume with a rise in temperature, as more energy is transferred. The other mechanism causing sea level rises is the melting of ice caps in both Greenland and Antarctica – according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, “in mid-June 2014, melting has rapidly expanded to 30% of Greenland’s ice sheet”20 – with this net ablation (recession) in glacier levels in both of these landmasses causing meltwater to run off into the surrounding ocean, with a corresponding increase in sea levels following as a result. With some sort of global average temperature increase due to anthropogenic climate change being, according to the US Government, “inevitable”21, to some extent the focus of world governments and Intergovernmental Organisations (IGOs) such as the UNFCCC has turned away from ‘mitigation’ (attempting to avoid anthropogenic climate change) to ‘adaptation’ (attempting to find methods of coping with the predictable and probably effects of anthropogenic climate change’). Whilst there is still much which can be done to mitigate anthropogenic climate change – the World Resources Institute lists four different scenarios as possible depending on worldwide emissions from the present onwards22 - it is also necessary at this point to adapt to the effects of anthropogenic climate change, such as the effects which 20
The NSIDC, ‘Greenland Ice Sheet Today’, 2014, http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/ R Longley, ‘Global Warming Inevitable This Century, NSF Study Finds’, About News, 2007, http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/technologyandresearch/a/climatetochange.htm 22 CF Tompkins and K Levin, ‘Choose Your Future: 4 Possible Emissions Pathways’, The World Resources Institute, 2014, http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/08/choose-your-future-4-possible-emissions-pathways - 12 21
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rising sea levels will have on the world’s population. As we will see, the necessity for such action is highlighted by the fact that such effects are already starting to be seen, and will be seen soon. Adapting to a rise in sea levels does, however, come with both practical and political challenges – we cannot be certain of how much sea levels will rise as we are uncertain of how much the average global temperature will rise, and as we will also see, many of the UN member states which will be affected the most by rising sea levels are also some of the least economically developed member states of the UN. This has implications for both their ability to respond and their responsibility for responding – delegates from such states should be asking themselves whether it is really ‘fair’ to expect states which have, due to their low levels of economic development, contributed relatively little to causing anthropogenic climate change to bear the burden of the effects of climate change without assistance from the UN or directly from member states which might be more ‘responsible’ for Greenhouse Gas emissions
B. Analysis,of,the,Problem, The Global Nature and Impacts of Rising Sea Levels As previously stated, the scientific consensus is that, with a rise in the global average temperature being inevitable, some sea level rises will be inevitable. The US government, for instance, estimates that in the ‘best-case scenario’ in terms of a rise in global average temperature, we can expect a global average sea level rise of approximately 11 cm from Thermal Expansion (as described in Section A of the Study Guide) alone23 whilst the USA’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives as an estimate a 90% chance that, should current trends in sea level rises continue, there will be an average global sea level rise of between 0.2 and 2.0 metres by 210024.
23
Longley, op. cit. The NOAA, ‘Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United State National Climate Assessment’, 2012, http://cpo.noaa.gov/Home/AllNews/TabId/315/ArtMID/668/ArticleID/80/Global-Sea-Level-Rise-Scenarios-for-theUnited-States-National-Climate-Assessment.aspx - 13 24
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Fig. 1 – A graph showing absolute change in sea level in inches (1 inch = 2.54 cm) (Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/Trends_in_global_average_absolute_sea_ level,_1870-2008_(US_EPA).png ) The problem which this presents for the world’s population is that a relatively large proportion of the world’s population live in low-lying coastal areas. The IPCC states that, for instance, that roughly one quarter of the world’s population “resides within 100 km distance and 100 m elevation of the coastline, with increases likely over the coming decades” and, to state the obvious, that “Climate change could affect coastal areas through an accelerated rise in sea level”25. This trend runs lock-in-step with a global trend towards urbanization – as the world’s ‘megacities’ (population centres with over 10 million inhabitants), many of which are near some sort of coastline and clearly fall within the parameters detailed above by the IPCC, grow larger and larger, more and more of the world’s population become concentrated in areas of the world which are threatened by some sort of rise in sea levels (see Figures 3 and 4 for a comparison of the location of the world’s low-lying coastal areas and the world’s ‘megacities’). 25
The IPCC, ‘Population’s in low-lying areas’, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch8s8-4-2-4.html - 14 -
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Fig. 3 –a relief map of the world with shading for regions of the world at an elevation of less than 80 metres (Source: http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/2/2c/Global_Sea_Level_Rise_Risks.png )
Fig. 4 – a map showing the location and growth rates of the world’s ‘megacities’ (Source: http://www.mappery.com/maps/Growth-of-Megacities-Map.jpg ) The global impact of rising sea levels is not and will not be limited to large urban centres, however. A significant threat is also posed to agriculture, with sea level rises having the potential to render much of the world’s arable land (land which is usable for agricultural practices) useless.
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Fig. 5 – a map showing global land usability, produced by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (Source: http://www.fao.org/docrep/u8480e/U8480E4g.jpg )
Areas Acutely Vulnerable to Sea Level Rises Although the problems which a global rise in sea levels would pose are wide-reaching in nature, there are certain parts of the world which will be affected more by a rise in sea levels, which we will be paying particular attention to in this study guide. These areas are detailed in case studies below, making clear the nature of the regions in question and what particular threats sea level rises pose to each region. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) “If such as tragedy does happen… then the United Nations and its members would have failed in their first and most basic duty to a member nation and its innocent people” Iolu Abil, President of Vanuatu, addressing the UN General Assembly on the risk of Vanuatu being submerged by rising sea levels, 200926 The UNFCCC has described Small Island Developing States (referred to hereafter as SIDS) as “some of the most beautiful, inspiring yet vulnerable countries and communities in the world”27 due to the uniquely precarious position which they find themselves in as a result of current and impending sea level rises, among the other challenges posed to them by the effects of anthropogenic climate change. This was first acknowledged by the IPCC in their first ever report 26 B Lomborg, ‘The View from Vanuatu on Climate Change’, The Wall Street Journal, 2009, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704500604574481841335221698 27 The UNFCCC, ‘Small Islands in Focus’, 2014, http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/sids-conferencesamoa-new/ - 16 -
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on the subject of anthropogenic climate change, which claimed that a sea level rise of just 1 m (squarely within the NOAA’s estimates) “would render some island countries uninhabitable”28. One SIDS which would suffer particularly badly as a result of sea level rises is the Maldives. A country made up of over 1,000 islands with an average elevation of approximately 1.3 metres above sea level, the Maldives has become well-known as a case study demonstrating the devastating effects of anthropogenic climate change through the efforts of its former President, Mohamed Nasheed, who said that a rise in sea levels of approximately 1 metre would render his country uninhabitable29 and who once rated the chances of his grandchildren being able to live in an inhabitable Maldives at “50-50”30.
Fig. 6 – A graph showing sea level variations in the Maldives from approx. 1993 to approx.. 2009 (Source: http://s3.amazonaws.com/mmc-beta-production/assets/11709/maldives.jpg ) Bangladesh
28
G Wynn, ‘Some 15% of Pacific islands wiped out by 1m sea level rise – IPCC’, Responding to Climate Change, 2014, http://www.rtcc.org/2014/03/27/some-15-of-pacific-islands-wiped-out-by-1m-sea-level-rise-ipcc/ 29 R Astaiza, ’11 Islands That Will Vanish When Sea Levels Rise’, Business Insider, 2012, http://www.businessinsider.com/islands-threatened-by-climate-change-2012-10?op=1 30 D Carrington, ‘The Maldives is the extreme test case for climate change action’, The Guardian, 2013, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2013/sep/26/maldives-test-case-climate-changeaction - 17 -
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Bangladesh faces a significant threat from rising sea levels because, much like the SIDS previously examined, it is extremely low-lying – roughly 46% of Bangladeshis live at an elevation of 10 metres or less above sea level, with roughly 2/3 of the population living within 100 km of the coast31. Although Bangladesh isn’t quite as low-lying as, say, the Maldives or Vanuatu, the average elevation is still roughly 7.62 metres above sea level, putting the entire country at risk due to rising sea levels32. The situation in Bangladesh is exacerbated by the fact that it is not only one of the world’s lowest-lying countries but is also one of the world’s most densely populated, and least economically developed, countries. The country has a population of over 150 million people, but is only ranked 138th out of 177 countries (as of 2004) by the 2004 UNDP Human Development Report – whilst the UN has stated that “Over the last 10 years Bangladesh has made impressive gains in key human development indicators”33, it is clear that Bangladesh still remains among the world’s poorest and least economically developed countries. Bangladesh is also particularly susceptible to the effects of rising sea levels because of the high proportion of Bangladeshis who rely on subsistence agriculture for their living – the same 2004 Human Development Report estimated that, as of 2000, only about 21.6% of the working population of Bangladesh “are employed for wages and salaries”34, with the rest of the population presumably being self-employed as subsistence producers. As previously noted, rising sea levels have the potential to ruin much of the world’s low-lying arable land, so as such it can be presumed that with a large proportion of the country’s surface area taken up by lowlying arable land, Bangladesh is uniquely challenged by the threat of rising sea levels. To a great extent this is already apparent, according to the World Bank, “About 20 million people in the coastal areas of Bangladesh are already affected by salinity in drinking water” whilst this same report, released in 2013, goes on to state that “40% of productive land is projected to be lost in the southern region of Bangladesh for a 65cm sea level rise by the 2080s”35. Considering the reliance of the vast majority of Bangladeshis on such productive land, rising sea levels will hit the country especially hard.
31
N Greenfieldboyce, ‘Study: 634 Million People at Risk from Rising Seas’, NPR,, 2007, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9162438 32 AM Mondal, ‘Sea Level Rise along the Coast of Bangladesh’, The Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority, Ministry of Shipping, 2001, www.gloss-sealevel.org/publications/documents/bangladesh_2001.pdf 33 The United Nations, ‘Bangladesh Country Profile’, 2005, http://www.un-bd.org/bgd/ 34 Ibid. 35
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Fig. 7 – a map of Bangladesh showing the population density of areas both inside and outside of a 5 metre ‘Low Elevation Coastal Zone’ (Source: http://www.mappery.com/maps/Bangladesh5m-LECZ-and-Population-Density-Map.mediumthumb.jpg ) Louisiana and the Gulf Coast The effects of rising sea levels may well hit less economically developed countries like Bangladesh and the Maldives disproportionately but they are by no means limited to such countries. Demonstrating this is a NOAA study conducted which estimates that “the southeast corner of [The US State of] Louisiana looks likely to be under at least 4.3 feet of gulf water by the end of the century”36. This is the conclusion reached by a mid-range estimate from an assessment compiled by the agency and released in 2013. Such a sea level rise in the region would have consequences beyond the immediate region of South Louisiana due to the region’s vast economic significance. The state is the home of the Port of South Louisiana, which is, according to the Port Authority itself, “the largest tonnage port district in the western hemisphere”, handling over 278 million tons of cargo in 2012 alone and 36
B Marshall, ‘New research: Louisiana coast faces highest rate of sea-level rise worldwide’, The Lens, 2013, http://thelensnola.org/2013/02/21/new-research-louisiana-coast-faces-highest-rate-of-sea-level-rise-on-the-planet/ - 19 -
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seeing 15% of the USA’s exports that year go through it37. Whilst the USA might be betterpositioned to adapt to the effects of rising sea levels than the other countries examined, any risk posed to the Louisiana shipping industry would be extremely harmful to the USA’s shipping capacity and, by extension, their Trade Balance (the ratio of exports to imports).
Fig. 8 – a map showing the location of the Port of South Louisiana (marked in orange) compared to the location of New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and other major American cities (Source: http://www.portsl.com/transportation/images/Inland_River_System_01.jpg )
37
The Port of South Louisiana, ‘Overview’, http://www.portsl.com/overview.htm - 20 -
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C. Potential Solutions As the problems posed by rising sea levels are multifaceted in nature, so are the solutions, and the potential adaptations which can be implemented. They range in scope, in focus and in longterm impact and cost, but each should be considered when attempting to give examples of potential adaptations which could be implemented. Below are some case studies concerning adaptation to rising sea levels directly concerning the regions which we examined in the previous section of the study guide, giving some guidance as to how these regions have ‘coped’ with the impending threat facing them. Small Island Developing States Of all SIDS potentially affected by rising sea levels, Vanuatu has a particularly thorough ‘Action Plan’ which was redrafted in 2011 to address the fact that, in the Action Plan’s words, “Vanuatu is already highly vulnerable to a range of natural disasters, many of which will be exacerbated by climate change”38. Potential climate change adaptations are split into categories such as No Regrets/Low Regrets adaptations (which “provide net benefits regardless of climate change” e.g. planting endemic species to prevent soil erosion) and Climate Justified adaptations (which “depend on projections of changes in climate to justify their benefits” e.g. the implementation of more sophisticated irrigation systems to account for increased salinity due to rising sea levels). Practices suggested in order to adapt to the effects of rising sea levels range from the specific (e.g. the implementation of a “Deep ocean cooling system”) to the general (e.g. altering land use patterns)39. The United Nations General Assembly itself also addressed the issue of the effects of sea level rises in SIDS in A/RES/44/206, a resolution which was adopted unanimously at the 85th Plenary meeting in December, 1989, albeit in an extremely general manner – the extent of the specificity of this resolution was perhaps best demonstrated by Clause 2, which urged “the international community to provide effective and timely support to countries affected by sea level rise, particularly developing countries, in their efforts to develop and implement strategies to protect themselves and their vulnerable natural marine ecosystems from the particular threats of sea-level rise caused by climate change”40. Bangladesh The approach taken to adaptation to the effects of rising sea levels in Bangladesh has been similarly multifaceted. As such, a comprehensive action plan known as the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) was put into place in 2009. The Action Plan will 38
Republic of Vanuatu, ‘National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy’, 2011 Ibid. 40 The UN, ‘A/RES/44/206’, 1989, http://www.un.org/documents/ga/res/44/a44r206.htm - 21 39
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implement, according to the World Bank, “44 identified programs” and will cost “$500 million in the first two years and about $5 billion in the first five years for full implementation”41. The adaptation plan implemented by Bangladesh takes three timescales into account – an “Immediate” timescale, a “Short Term” timescale and a “Medium to Long Term” timescale, with different strategies implemented at each focus level. For example, when addressing infrastructural needs, the World Bank and the government of Bangladesh highlight “Repair and maintenance of existing flood embankments” as an ‘Immediate’ solution whilst “Improvement of urban drainage” is highlighted as a “Medium to Long Term” solution. The adaptation plan similarly covers strategies for both impact assessment (e.g. “Climate change modelling at national and sub-national levels”) as well as strategies for impact mitigation (e.g. “dredging and de-siltation work”)42. Aside from cost and time-intensive solutions to the problems which rising sea levels pose, more novel solutions have also been found to current and future problems which this particular effect of anthropogenic climate change could pose. Aarjan Dixit, for example, documents the use of water hyacinths in the village of Goalbari in central Bangladesh to overcome the periodic flooding which has affected Bangladesh more and more. The hyacinths (known as baira) provide, in Dixit’s words, “a bed… to grow vegetables”. This approach has been coupled with research efforts conducted by the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) intended “to improve the design of such bairas to make them lighter and stay afloat for longer periods of time”43.
Louisiana The investment into adaptation programs in Louisiana is, understandably, anticipated to be much greater than the investment into such programs in Bangladesh or Vanuatu – Entergy, a US utilities company operating in the region, puts the amount of investment needed to avoid economic losses of $135 billion in the Louisiana Gulf Coast region at about $50 billion according to a report co-authored with America’s Wetlands Foundation, “Building a Resilient Energy Gulf Coast”44. 41
The World Bank, ‘Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Bangladesh’, 2010,
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2010/01/16420806/bangladesh-economic-adaptation-climate-change-vol-1-2-mainreport 42
Ibid. A Dixit, ‘Adapting to Climate Change in Bangladesh’, The World Resources Institute, 2011, http://www.wri.org/blog/2011/04/adapting-climate-change-bangladesh 44 S Buchanan, ‘Louisiana Forced to Start Adapting to Climate Change’, The Louisiana Weekly, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/susan-buchanan/louisiana-forced-to-start_b_1078767.html - 22 43
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One potential solution touted in Louisiana to the issue of climate change is wetland restoration – with much of the land loss in Louisiana expected to occur due to storm surges and sea level rises, such restoration projects could prove crucial as, according to the Environmental Defence Fund, “A one-acre area of wetland can store up to one million gallons of water, providing a significant buffer between flood waters and populated areas” and “restoration efforts to augment total healthy wetland area in the region will simultaneously reduce flooding risk associated with climate change”45. Efforts to adapt to the effects of sea level rises in Louisiana are still, however, in their preliminary stages, not helped by the fact that, according to the Association of State Wetland Managers, as of 2010 “Louisiana, as a state, has not formally acknowledged that climate change is occurring”46. This has naturally made directing funding to adapting to climate change somewhat difficult. The federal government of the USA is also still in the process of trying to assess what should be done in the region based on impact assessments, which are still ongoing in the region. Summary What each Case Study highlights, in terms of the challenges which rising sea levels pose, is the great uncertainty which both national governments and Intergovernmental Organisations (IGOs) such as subsidiary bodies of the UN, face in attempting to formulate appropriate action plans. The situation is frustrating because although these groups know that something needs to be done in order to adapt to the effects which rising sea levels might have on populations living and working in vulnerable areas, nobody knows how much needs to be done due to the wide level of variability incorporated in estimation models, an issue highlighted in particular by Vanuatu’s report. The worst-case scenario might see half of Bangladesh being submerged, but the best-case scenario could see damage to the Bangladeshi economy being (relatively) superficial. Considering the large costs associated with a comprehensive solution covering a wide variety of impact areas and timeframes, the need for accurate data and more precise projections is acute. The Case Studies also highlight the varied use of high- and low-tech solutions to the problems posed by rising sea levels. The use of improved irrigation methods, for example, could potentially involve a sophisticated array of technology and as a result could be potentially very expensive, or it could, as the Bangladeshi Case Study demonstrated, could comprise a simple but novel method for adaptation such as the use of Water Hyacinths. This example in turn further 45 M Sutton, ‘Coastal restoration as a climate change adaptation strategy’, Delta Dispatches, 2012, http://www.mississippiriverdelta.org/blog/2012/06/12/coastal-restoration-as-a-climate-change-adaptation-strategy/ 46 The ASWM, ‘Climate Change Adaptation – Louisiana’, 2010, http://aswm.org/wetland-science/81-climatechange-adaptation-summaries/1164-climate-change-adaptation-louisiana - 23 -
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demonstrates a need for coordination with local decision-makers in order to formulate appropriate and cost-effective solutions – a method for adaption which takes advantage of local geography and/or socio-cultural practices, such as the one detailed above, can and will often be less costly and more effective than a more ‘sophisticated’ but less well-integrated method.
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D. Bloc Positions "Let's say my neighbour flooded my house entirely on his own, while I didn't contribute. Yet, I have to now borrow money from him, then pay him interest for the rest of my life, in order to clean the mess in my house that he is responsible for. This is dishonest”47 Ronny Jumeau, Permanent Representative of the Seychelles to the United Nations The major political dispute over how to best adapt to rising sea levels caused by anthropogenic climate change will not be over the need for adaptation – as evidenced by the General Assembly’s actions in 1989, everyone can agree that there is a need for adaptation – but will instead be over who is responsible for implementing solutions, as evidenced by the above quotation. As such, then, the two blocs are really ‘The West’ and ‘The Rest’ – roughly speaking, the industrialized nations who are largely responsible for the onset of anthropogenic climate change and less economically developed nations, such as Vanuatu, the Maldives and Bangladesh, who are more likely to suffer from the ill effects of rising sea levels. ‘The West’ A very small number of nations account for the lion’s share of the world’s CO2 emissions. The USA, for example, was responsible for over 1/6 of the world’s emissions in 2010, despite being home to less than 1/20 of the world’s population48. Whilst, as we have seen, the USA, to use one example, is comparatively highly affected by rising sea levels, it is also arguably disproportionately responsible for the world’s CO2 emissions. These nations are, however, unsurprisingly unlikely to want to bear the financial or technical burden of having to clean up the mess which, if Mr Jumeau is to be believed, they created themselves. If you represent a country which obviously falls into this bracket, as well as if you represent China, Saudi Arabia, Brazil or another similarly-sized economy with a relatively high emissions output, then you will probably be in favour of solutions to this problem which are more driven, in terms of both initiative and financing, by the affected states themselves. There is, of course, some logic to this argument – as sovereign states, these countries should be able to deal with problems affecting them themselves and will benefit additionally from many of the measures which would be implemented to adapt to rising sea levels. It is, nonetheless, one which is open to attack. ‘The Rest’ 47
The UN Chronicle, ‘Small Islands, Rising Seas’, 2014, http://unchronicle.un.org/article/small-islands-rising-seas/ S Rogers, ‘World carbon emissions: the league table of every country’, The Guardian, 2012, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/datablog/2012/jun/21/world-carbon-emissions-league-table-country - 25 48
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These are the (metaphorical) homeowners mentioned by Mr Jumeau in his remarks, countries such as Bangladesh, Vanuatu, the Maldives or one of a multitude of many other countries which will be disproportionately affected by rising sea levels but are in a worse position to adapt to them due to their relative lack of financial resources with which to do so. Many of these countries already receive a large amount of funding from IGOs and individual member states – Bangladesh being a key example which we’ve already seen, with reference to the funding which they receive from the World Bank – but in many cases it may not be enough. Bangladesh, for instance, is expected to provide a significant amount of funding for its action plan itself. These countries are likely to see the burden of responsibility placed on their shoulders by anthropogenic climate change as both unfeasible and fundamentally unfair – they are being given a responsibility which they both cannot and should not have to cope with. If you represent one of these countries, you could argue that this is simply another example of Western ‘NeoImperialism’ – rich countries being irresponsible and shirking the consequences of their actions onto the governments (and the populaces) of poorer countries. Compounding this tension is the fact that economic and social development is still a priority for states which fall into this broad category – Bangladesh’s action plan has attempted to address both rising sea levels and the issue of the country’s high poverty rate whilst a recurring trend in research and journalism on SIDS are that many citizens of such countries are concerned less with the far-off effects of rising sea levels and more with their immediate standards of living. These countries will thus want to see that strategies are implemented which address the issue of rising sea levels without compromising their ability to develop economically, socially and politically.
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E. Questions a Resolution Must Answer/Address
1. To what extent are we currently able to accurately assess how much time and money will need to be spend adapting to rising sea levels and how can we improve current assessment methods or implement new ones? 2. Which subsidiaries of the UN should be responsible for implementing strategies to adapt to rising sea levels? 3. To what extent should member states which are most responsible for CO2 emissions be held accountable for action needed in order to adapt to the effects of such emissions? 4. How can competing objectives of risk management with reference in specific to rising sea levels and of economic development in SIDS and other member states affected by rising sea levels be balanced? 5. How can the UNFCCC, and subsidiary bodies thereof, incorporate local stakeholders and decision-makers in adapting to rising sea levels?
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F. Further Reading
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The UNFCCC itself has an entire subsection of its website dedicated to Adaptation Strategies, which can be found at http://newsroom.unfccc.int/action-to-adapt/ .
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Responding to Climate Change has produced an article recently on how the world’s poorest countries are coping with anthropogenic climate change, which might be useful with reference to questions 4 and 5 as laid out by Section E, which can be found at http://www.rtcc.org/2014/08/11/how-are-the-worlds-poorest-preparing-for-climatechange/
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The World Bank has an extremely comprehensive section on its ‘Climate Change Adaptation Program’, which is useful reference material for anyone interested in the role which IGOs can play in helping affected states adapt to rising sea levels. This can be found at http://www.worldbank.org/projects/P101076/climate-change-adaptationprogram?lang=en
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The previously-mentioned Dixit article on Bangladesh is worth a more thorough read, with lots of useful information on Bangladesh’s precarious position, as well as providing information on a number of novel solutions to the issue presented, which can be found at http://www.wri.org/blog/2011/04/adapting5climate5change5bangladesh:
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For anyone unfamiliar with it, The Guardian’s section on Climate Change is an excellent source of up-to-date news on the latest research and developments in humanity’s ongoing fight (or lack thereof) against anthropogenic climate change, which can be found at http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-change
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