News Trends Contributors Colorado outlook improves Opinion Business Briefs Business People Almanac
January 20-February 2, 2022
The Business Times
Page 15
INDICATORS AT A GLANCE
n Business filings t New business filings in Colorado, 38,211 in the third quarter, down 1.2% from the third quarter of 2020.
n Confidence
s Consumer Confidence Index 115.8 in December, up 3.9. s Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 58 for the first quarter, up 1.9. s National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 98.9 for December, up 0.5.
n Foreclosures
t Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 2 in December, down from 8 in December 2020. s Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 3 in December, up from 2 in December 2020.
n Indexes
s Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 116.63 for December, up 0.99. s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 119.9 for November, up 1.1%. t Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 58.7% for December, down 2.4%.
n Lodging
s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $$362,081 for November, up 26.3% from November 2020.
n Real estate
s Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 562 in December, up 4.8% from December 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $256 million in December, up 52.4% from December 2020.
n Sales
s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.8 million for November, up 15.5% from November 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.2 million for November, up 15.3% from November 2020.
n Unemployment n Mesa County — 4.7% for November, unchanged. t Colorado — 5.1% for November, down 0.3. t United States — 3.9% for December, down 0.3.
But survey results also reflect concerns over inflation and pandemic Colorado business leaders are more upbeat heading into the new year, although they remain concerned about inflation, the COVID-19 pandemic and labor shortages. The Leeds Business Confidence Index climbed to 58 for the first quarter of 2022. That’s 1.9 points higher than the fourth quarter of 2021 and 10.1 points higher than the first quarter of 2021. Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2022, the overall score moved even higher to 59.4 on expectations for a sustained recovery. Readings above 50 indicate more positive than negative responses. The long-term average for the index stands at 54.4. The business research division at the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado at Boulder calculates the index. The index is based on the results of quarterly surveys of business leaders from across the state and various industry sectors. A total of 231 people responded to the survey upon which the first quarter index was based. In addition to an overall score, the index provides individual scores for each of six metrics. All six scores increased between the fourth and first quarters to levels above 50. Confidence in the Colorado economy rose 2.5 points to 57.6. A total of 49.8 percent of business leaders who responded to the first quarter survey predicted moderate or strong increases in the state economy, while 33.6 percent forecast no change and a total of 16.6 percent anticipated moderate or strong decreases. Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the state, rose at an seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3 percent during the third quarter of 2021. Confidence in the national economy rose 1.5 points, but at 50.4 was the lowest score for the six metrics. While a total of 42.4 percent of leaders expected moderate of strong increases, 31.3 percent anticipated no change and a total of 26.3 percent forecast moderate or strong decreases. Hiring expectations rose 2.1 points to 63.7, the highest score for the six metrics. A total of 50.6 percent of leaders anticipated moderate or strong increases in hiring, 38.7 percent expected no change and 10.6 percent forecast moderate or strong decreases. Nonfarm payrolls increased 117,500 in Colorado between
CONFIDENCE INDEX AT A GLANCE
Here’s a look at the latest results of the Leeds Business Confidence Index: 4Q 2021 1Q 2022 s Overall expectations 56.1 58 s State economy 55.1 57.6 s National economy 48.9 50.4 s Sales expectations 59 60.2 s Profit expectations 56.6 57.9 s Hiring expectations 61.6 63.7 s Capital expenditures 55.4 58.3
November 2020 and 2021, with 2.9 percent employment growth in Mesa County during that span. The statewide jobless rate stood at 5.1 percent in November 2021. Capital expenditure expectations climbed 2.9 points, the largest gain of the six metrics, to 58.3. Even as 41.4 percent of respondents projected moderate or strong increases in expenditures, 43.3 percent expected no change and 15.2 percent forecast moderate or strong decreases. Sales expectations rose 1.2 points to 60.2 with 58.6 percent of respondents anticipating moderate or strong increases. While 27.2 percent forecast no change, 14.3 percent expected moderate or strong decreases. Profit expectations climbed 1.3 points to 57.9 with 50.7 percent of business leaders projecting moderate or strong decreases. While 32 percent forecast no change, 17 percent anticipated moderate or strong decreases. Asked to offer reasons for their expectations for the six metrics, 28 percent of business leaders who provided open-ended explanations cited inflation as a concern, followed by COVID-19 at 24 percent, supply chain issues at 16 percent and labor constraints at 11 percent. At the same time, 10 percent cited what they considered as an improvement in the pandemic as reason for optimism and 9 percent cited strong demand. F
Survey: Optimism up, but so are inflation concerns A measure of optimism among small business owners continues to increase, but so do concerns about inflation and labor shortages. “Inflation is at the highest level since the 1980s and is having an overwhelming impact on owners’ ability to manage their businesses,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Business. The NFIB reported its Small Business Optimism Index rose a half point to 98.9 in December. The small business advocacy group based the index on the results of monthly Bill Dunkelberg surveys of members, most of them small business owners. For December, seven of 10 components of the index advanced and three retreated. The proportion of those responding to the survey upon which the December index was based who expected the economy to improve in coming months rose three points from November. But at a net negative 35 percent, more respondents anticipated worsening conditions. The reading has dropped 23 points over the past six months. A net 29 percent reported plans to make capital outlays, up two points. A net 11 percent said they considered now a good time to expand, up a point.
A net 28 percent reported plans to increase staffing, up three points. A net 49 percent reported unfilled job openings, up a point. Asked to identify their single most important business problem, 22 percent of those who responded cited inflation. That was a 20-point increase from the beginning of 2021 and the highest level since 1981. At 25 percent, an even bigger proportion cited quality of labor. Another 13 percent cited the cost of labor, a record-high reading. A net 48 percent of survey respondents reported raising compensation, up four points from November to a record level. A net 32 percent said they expect to raise compensation in the next three months. The share of those who said they expected more sales rose a point to a net 3 percent. The share of those reporting higher earnings rose three points. But at a net negative 14 percent, a bigger share reported lower earnings. Of those reporting higher earnings, 63 percent credited stronger sales and 15 percent cited higher prices. A net 57 percent of respondents reported raising average selling prices, up two points. Of those reporting lower earnings, 29 percent blamed higher materials costs and 22 percent cited weaker sales. A net 8 percent reported plans to increase inventories, down two points. A net 9 percent said they consider current inventories too low, down six points. F
