Trends

February 17-March 9, 2022 The Business Times News Page 15 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors Fast start for real estate t New business filings in Colorado, 35,625 in the fourth quarter, down 2.9% from the fourth quarter of 2020. Opinion Commercial transactions and higher prices boost Mesa County activity Phil Castle The Business Times Business Briefs Business People n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 113.8 for January, down 1.4. s Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 58 for the first quarter, up 1.9. t National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 97.1 for January, down 1.8. The commercial activity and higher residential prices that contributed to a recordbreaking year for real estate in Mesa County in 2021 continues in 2022. Compared to the same month a year ago, the overall number of sales slipped in January. But the dollar volume of those transactions soared 40 percent. “I think it’s really still a healthy start,” said Almanac n Foreclosures Annette Young, administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction. s Foreclosure filings in Robert Bray, chief executive officer of Mesa County, 6 in Bray & Co. Real Estate in Grand Junction, January, up from 0 in said he’s watching for the effects of low January 2021. inventories and higher interest rates on the s Foreclosure sales in residential market. But he remains optimistic. Mesa County, 1 in “I think we’ll see a good year in real estate.” January, up from Young said 376 real estate transactions 0 in January 2021. worth a combined $163 million were reported in n Indexes Mesa County in January. Compared to the same month a year ago, transactions fell 3. 8 percent. t Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 117.62 for January, down 0.32. s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 120.8 for December, up 0.8%. But dollar volume rose 40.5 percent. Just 23 transactions accounted for a total of $43.5 million and most of the $47 million difference in dollar volume, Young said. Those transactions included the sale of the Best Buy retail space for $4.7 million, a Kum & Go convenience store and gas t Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 57.6% for station for $4.7 million and 13 acres of vacant property north of the Canyon View Urgent Care facility for $3.65 million. For all of 2021, the dollar volume of real estate activity rose January, down 1.2%. 34.5 percent in 2021 to $2.359 billion, the highest level ever in n Lodging Mesa County. According to numbers Bray & Co. tracks for the residential s Lodging tax collections in real estate market in Mesa County, 216 transactions worth a total Grand Junction, $219,599 for December, up 60.3% from November 2020. n Real estate t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 376 in January, down 3.8% from January 2021. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $163 million in January, up 40.5% from January 2021. n Sales s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.6 million for December, up 22% from December 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.6 million for January, up 19.4% from January 2021. n Unemployment t Mesa County — 4.6% for December, down 0.1 t Colorado — 4.8% for December, down 0.3. s United States — 4.0% for January, up 0.1. of $89.2 million were reported in January. Compared to the same month a year ago, transactions decreased 12.9 percent and dollar volume increased 7.7 percent. The increased dollar volume reflects in part higher prices. At $377,750, the median price of homes sold in January was 28 percent higher than the same month a year ago. Bray said sales for a single month don’t constitute a reliable indicator. Nonetheless, home prices have increased over the past two years, he said: up 15 percent for 2021 over 2020 and up 12 percent for 2020 over 2019. A combination of low supplies and strong demand has pushed prices higher, he said. The 187 active residential listings at the end of January represented a 16.1 percent drop from the same time last year and the lowest number Bray said he’s seen in his long career in real estate. Bray said some seasonality has returned to the Mesa County real estate market, meaning sales and inventories likely will remain lower until activity picks up again in the spring. Young said she suspects some potential buyers have put off searching for homes, fatigued by higher prices and limited choices. In the meantime, though, the pace of new home construction has accelerated, Bray said. For January, 63 building permits for single family homes were issued in Mesa County. That’s a gain of 21 percent over the same month last year and the third highest number for a January in the past 15 years. Young and Bray said they expect higher interest rates on mortgages could push some potential buyers out of the market and in turn affect sales. But even with increases, interest rates remain comparatively low. Moreover, Mesa County offers lower home prices than many of the metropolitan areas from which some people have relocated, Bray said. Young said she expects property foreclosure activity to pick up. For January, six foreclosure filings and one foreclosure sale were reported in Mesa County. There were no filings or sales for January 2021. F A measure of optimism among small business owners has declined even as concerns mount over inflationary pressures pushing prices and wages higher. “More small business owners started the new year raising prices in an attempt to pass on higher inventory, supplies and labor costs,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Business. Tony Gagliardi, state director of the NFIB in Colorado, blamed the situation in part on supply chain disruptions. “This disruption is partially responsible for increased consumer prices. Small businesses can no longer absorb increased wholesale prices. Those prices must now be passed along.” The NFIB reported its Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.8 points to 97.1 in January. The small business advocacy group bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members, most of them small business owners. For January, seven of 10 components of the index retreated. Asked to identify their single most important business problem, 22 percent of those who responded to the survey upon which the January index was based cited inflation — tying the reading in December for the highest level since 1981. Eleven

Annette Young Robert Bray

Small business optimism drops as inflation rises

percent cited labor costs and 23 percent cited quality of labor. A net 61 percent of owners reported raising average selling prices, up four points from December to the highest reading since 1974. A net 50 percent of owners reported raising compensation, the largest proportion in the 48-year history of the index. A net 27 percent said they plan to increase compensation in the next three months. The proportion of business owners who expected the economy to improve rose two points. But at a net negative 33 percent, more Bill Dunkelberg respondents anticipated worsening conditions. A net 29 percent reported plans to make capital outlays, unchanged from December. A net 9 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, down two points. A net 26 percent of owners reported plans to increase staffing, down two points. A net 47 percent reported unfilled job openings, also down two points. The share of those who said they expect more sales dropped six points to a net negative 6 percent. The share of those reporting higher earnings fell three points Tony Gagliardi to a net negative 17 percent. Among those reporting lower profits, 32 percent blamed the rising cost of materials and 19 percent cited weaker sales. A net 3 percent of owners reported plans to increase inventories, down five points. A net 7 percent said existing inventories were too low, down two points. F

The Business Times

February 17-March 9, 2022

U.S. payrolls grow 467,000 in January

Payrolls increased 467,000 in the United States in January even as the unemployment rate edged up a tenth of a point to 4 percent.

The latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate for nonfarm payroll gains came in below the average monthly increase of 555,000 in 2021, but exceeded forecasts.

Moreover, estimated payroll gains for December and November were revised upward a total of 709,000.

The jobless rate edged up in January as more people looked for jobs. The labor particiption rate rose three-tenths of a point to 62.2 percent, but remained 1.2 points below February 2020.

Nonfarm payrolls have increased 19.1 million since April 2020. A record 6.6 million jobs were added in 2021. Still, payrolls remain 2.9 million below February 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

For January, 6.5 million people were counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work. Of those, 1.7 million have been out of work 27 weeks or longer.

Another 3.7 million people were counted among those working part-time because their hours were cut or they were unable to find full-time positions.

Payroll gains for January were spread out among a number of industry sectores. Employment increased 151,000 in leisure and hospitality, 86,000 in business and professional services, 61,000 in retail trades and 54,000 in transportation and warehousing. Payrolls increased 29,000 in local government education, 18,000 in health care and 16,000 in wholesale trades.

The average workweek for employees on private, nonfarm payrolls shortened two-tenths of an hour to at 34.5 hours. The average manufacturing workweek edged down a tenth of an hour to 40.2 hours.

Average hourly earnings increased 23 cents to $31.63. Over the past year, average hourly earnings have increased 5.7 percent.

F

Labor index slips

An index tracking labor trends in the United States has slipped, but continues to signal job growth in the months ahead.

The Conference Board reported its Employment Terends Index fell about three-tenths of a point to 117.62 in January.

Frank Steemers, senior economist at the Conference Board, said the COVID-19 pandemic didn’t affect job growth as much as expected, but employers continue to struggle in a tight labor market to recruit and retain workers.