News Trends Colorado recovery continues Contributors Opinion Business Briefs Business People Almanac
May 12-25, 2022
The Business Times
Page 19
INDICATORS AT A GLANCE
n Business filings
t New business filings in Colorado, 43,780 in the first quarter, down 2.1 percent from the first quarter of 2021.
n Confidence
t Consumer Confidence Index 107.3 for April, down 0.3. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 53.9 for the second quarter, down 4.1 n National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 93.2 for April, unchanged.
n Foreclosures s Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 24 in April, up from 4 in April 2021. t Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 0 in April, down from 4 in April 2021.
n Indexes
t Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 120.18 for April, down 0.6. s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 119.8 for March, up 0.3%. t Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 57.1% for April, down 1.2%.
n Lodging
s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $226,835 for March, up 58.7% from March 2021.
n Real estate
t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 448 in April, down 7.1% from April 2021. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $197 million in April, up 6.5% from April 2021.
n Sales
s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5 million for March, up 13% from March 2021. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $3.7 million for March, up 18% from March 2021.
n Unemployment t Mesa County — 3.9% for March, down 0.6. t Colorado — 3.7% for March, down 0.3. n United States — 3.6% for April, unchanged.
But rising inflation presents challenges, quarterly report confirms Colorado continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of job growth and other economic indicators, according to the latest findings in a quarterly report. But challenges remain, among them rising inflation. “Like many Americans, Coloradans are experiencing high inflation and rising prices for goods and services. These are challenging times for working families making tough choices between filling up the tank, paying bills and putting food on the table. And Colorado business owners must contend with the rising cost of operating expenses,” said Jena Griswold, Colorado secretary of state. Rich Wobbekind, senior economist and Jena Griswold faculty director of the Leeds Business Research Division at the University of Colorado at Boulder, agreed. “Colorado business leaders cited inflation as one of their top concerns in the latest business confidence index.” The Leeds Business Research Division compiles a quarterly business and economic indicators report in conjunction with the Colorado Secretary of State’s office. According to the report for the first Rich Wobbekind quarter of 2022, Colorado added 389,400 jobs between May 2020 and March 2022, exceeding the 375,200 jobs lost between February and April 2020 because of the pandemic and related restrictions. Nonfarm payrolls increased 131,200 between March 2021 and March 2022, a gain of 4.9 percent. The labor force participation rate — the share of the population working or looking for work — stood at 68.7 percent in February, third highest nationally. The statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate slipped three-tenths of a point in March, but at 3.7 percent remained above the national jobless rate of 3.6 percent for April. Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and
services produced in the state, increased 6.3 percent between the fourth quarters of 2020 and 2021. A total of 43,780 new business filings were recorded during the first quarter of 2022. That’s up 22.9 percent from the fourth quarter, but down 2.1 percent from the first quarter of 2021. For the 12-month period ending in March 2022, 156,865 new filings were recorded. That’s up 5.1 percent over the same span a year ago. New filings constitute a leading indicator of subsequent business and job growth. A total of 191,846 renewals for existing entities were recorded in the first quarter of 2022. That’s an increase of 15.3 percent over the fourth quarter 2021 and 10.3 percent over the first quarter of 2021. A total of 675,536 renewals were recorded in the 12-month period ending in March 2022, an 8.1 percent increase over the span last year. At the same time, the Consumer Price Index in the DenverAurora-Lakewood region increased 9.1 percent in March compared to the same month last year. That exceeds the 8.5 percent year-over-year gain nationwide. Core inflation rose 8 percent in Colorado compared to 6.5 percent nationally. Home price growth in the state increased 18.2 percent on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2021. Monthly retail gasoline prices in Colorado increased 32.9 percent year-over-year in April, reaching $4.04 per gallon. More concerned about inflation, supply chain issues and international conflicts, Colorado business leaders were less optimistic heading into the second quarter. The Leeds Business Confidence Index dropped to 53.9. That’s 4.1 points lower than the reading for the first quarter and 10.5 points lower than the reading for the second quarter of 2021. The reading for the third quarter of 2022 slipped further to 53.3. Readings above 50 reflect more positive than negative responses, however. “The good news is that Colorado’s economy is in recovery mode,” Griswold said. “The state’s job recovery is above pre-recession levels, and our labor force participation rate ranked third-highest in the nation in February. We must continue to do all we can to support Colorado’s small businesses and the working families that are the backbone of our economy and communities.” F
Small business index reflects inflation concerns A measure of optimism among small business owners remains unchanged as concerns persist over inflation and labor shortages. The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index held steady at 93.2 in April. The index has remained below its 48-year average reading of 98 for four straight months. “Small business owners are struggling to deal with inflation pressures,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB. “The labor supply is not responding strongly to small businesses’ high wage offers, and the Bill Dunkelberg impact of inflation has significantly disrupted business operations.” The small business advocacy group bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members, most of them small business owners. Five of 10 components of the index retreated between March and April while two advanced and three remained unchanged. The proportion of NFIB members who responded to the survey upon which the April index was based who expect the economy to improve over the next six months fell a point. At a net negative 50 percent, the lowest level ever for the index, more respondents anticipated worsening conditions. A net 27 percent of respondents reported plans for capital outlays in coming months, up a point. Only a net 4 percent said
they consider now a good time to expand, down two points. A net 20 percent of respondents reported plans to increase staffing, unchanged from March. Meanwhile, 47 percent reported unfilled job openings, also unchanged. Asked to identify their most important business problem, 32 percent cited inflation. That’s up 26 points from a year ago to the highest level since 1980. Another 23 percent cited the quality of labor as their most pressing problem. A net 70 percent reported raising average sales prices, two points below a record level in March. A net 46 percent reported raising compensation, down three points. A net 27 percent plan to raise compensation in the next three months. The proportion of survey respondents who said they expect higher sales volume rose six points. But at a net negative 12 percent, more anticipated lower volume. The share of those reporting higher earnings remained unchanged. But at a net negative 17 percent, more respondents reported lower earnings. Among those who did, 34 percent blamed rising materials costs and 22 percent cited weaker sales. A net 1 percent of respondent reported plans to increase inventories, down a point. A net 6 percent said existing inventories were too low, down three points. Meanwhile, 36 percent of those who responded to the survey said supply chain disruptions have had significant effects on their businesses and 34 percent reported moderate effects. F
