Trends

June 17-30, 2021 The Business Times News Page 19 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors Sales tax collections rise Opinion Business Briefs Business People Almanac n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 117.2 in May, down 0.3. s Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 64.4 for the second quarter, up 16.5. t National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 99.6 for May, down 0.2. n Foreclosures n Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 2 in May, unchanged from 2 in May 2020. s Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 2 in May, up from 0 in s New business filings in Colorado, 44,740 in the first quarter, up 32.2% from the first quarter of 2020. Year-over-year increases also reflect the effects of pandemic in 2020 Tax collections, a key measure of sales activity, continue to increase in Grand Junction and Mesa County. The City of Grand Junction and Mesa County reported large, year-over-year gains in collections in May, although the gains also reflect the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic a year ago. The city collected nearly $4.9 million in sales taxes in May, an increase of 61.2 percent compared to the same month a year ago. The city received another $860,000 as its share of sales taxes collected in Mesa County, a 42.2 percent increase. The county collected more than $3.9 million in sales taxes in May, a 43.8 percent increase from a year ago. May collections reflect April sales. The city collected a total of more than $5.8 million in sales and use taxes in May, an increase of $2.1 million and 57.7 percent over the same month last year. Use taxes, a smaller and more volatile revenue source, increased 35.3 percent. While city sales and use tax collections for May have trended upward over the last five years, 2020 was the exception with a nearly 20.4 percent drop from 2019. For the first five months of 2021, the city collected a total of more than $27 million in sales and use taxes. That’s an increase Lodging tax collections, a measure of hotel and motel stays, have rebounded in Grand Junction. The City of Grand Junction collected $142,536 in lodging taxes in May, an increase of $93,359 and 189.8 percent over the month a year ago. May collections reflect hotel and motel stays in April. The increase also reflects, though, a downturn in hospitality businesses last year attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions. Collections for May 2020 were down nearly 61.2 percent from May 2019. Still, collections for May 2021 were up 6.7 percent from May 2019. Through the first five months of 2021, the city collected $456,267. That’s an increase of $88,373 and 24 percent over the same period in 2020. F Lodging tax collections rebound in Grand Junction May 2020. of more than $4.9 million and 22.1 percent over the same span in n Indexes 2020. A 24.3 percent increase in sales tax collections more than basis 79.6 percent on restaurant meals and hotel stays, 54.3 percent on automotive sales and 45.8 percent on home improvements. s Conference Board Employment offset a 15.7 percent decrease in use tax collections. Collections dropped 43.9 percent in the oil and natural gas sector. Trends Index, 107.35 for Mesa County collected a total of more than $4.2 million in For the first five months of 2021, Mesa County collected a May, up 3.04. sales and use taxes in May, an increase of almost $1.4 million and total of more than $18.7 million in sales and use taxes, an increase s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 113.3 for April, up 1.6%. 48.1 percent over the same month a year ago. Use tax collections — most on automobiles purchased outside the county, but used in the county — rose 132.2 percent. of nearly $3.6 million and 23.7 percent. Sales tax collections rose 22.4 percent, while use tax collections jumped 41.2 percent. The county collected more than $6.4 million in taxes on retail s Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 61.2% for May, up 0.5%. County sales and use tax collections for May 2020 were down 11.8 percent from May 2019. For May 2021, county tax collections on retail sales topped $1.3 million, an increase of 39.3 percent over a year ago. sales during the first five months of 2021, a 26.9 percent increase over the same span in 2020. Collections rose 53.2 percent for internet sales, 40.8 percent for sporting goods and 47.3 percent for clothing. n Lodging Collections rose for every category, including a 208.5 percent Tax collections increased 40.6 percent on the sale of home s Lodging tax collections in increase in clothing, 112 percent increase in sporting goods and improvements, 31.2 percent on automobiles and 25.4 percent on Grand Junction, $142,536 28 percent increase in internet sales. restaurant meals and hotel stays. for May, up 189.8% from County tax collections also increased on a year-over-year F May 2020. n Real estate

s Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 549 in May, up 58.2% from May 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $185 million in May, up 74.5% from May 2020. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.83 million for May, up 57.7% from May 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.23 million for May, up 48.1% from May 2020. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 6.8% for April, down 0.4

n Colorado — 6.4% for April, unchanged. t United States — 5.8% for May, down 0.3.

Small Business Optimism Index retreats

A measure of optimism among small business owners has retreated even as a growing proportion of them struggle to fill job openings.

The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index fell two-tenths of a point to 99.6 in May.

The index remains above its 47-year average of 98.

“The labor shortage is holding back growth for small businesses across the country,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB. “If small business owners could hire more workers to take care of customers, sales would be higher Bill Dunkelberg and getting closer to pre-COVID levels.”

Other challenges persist, Dunkelberg added. “Inflation on Main Street is rampant, and small business owners are uncertain about future business conditions.”

The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners.

For May, five of 10 components of the index advanced, three retreated and two remained unchanged.

A record 48 percent of those who responded to the survey upon which the May index was based reported unfilled job openings, up four points from April.

Asked to name their single most important business problem, 26 percent cited labor quality and 8 percent cited labor costs.

A net 27 percent reported plans to increase staffing, up six points.

A net 34 percent reported raising compensation, the highest level in a year. A net 22 percent said they expect to raise compensation in the next three months.

Meanwhile, the share of those who expect the economy to improve dropped 11 points. At a net negative 26 percent, more respondents indicated they expect worsening conditions.

A net 27 percent reported plans to make capital outlays, unchanged from April. A net 13 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, down a point.

The proportion of respondents reporting higher earnings fell four points. At a net negative 11 percent, more reported lower earnings.

Of those reporting lower earnings, 38 percent blamed weaker sales. Of those reporting higher earnings, 60 percent cited increased sales.

A net 2 percent said they expect higher sales over the next three months, up a point.

A net 6 percent reported plans to increase inventories, up a point. A net 8 percent said their inventories are too low, also up a point.

June 17-30, 2021 U.S. jobless rate down, payrolls up Labor index rises

The monthly unemployment rate in the United States has dropped to its lowest level in more than a year as payrolls continue to grow.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the jobless rate retreated three-tenths of a point to 5.8 percent in May, the lowest level since March 2020. Nonfarm payrolls increased 559,000.

Estimated payroll gains for April and March were revised upward 27,000 to a total of more than 1 million.

Still, nonfarm employment is down 7.6 million, or 5 percent, from its pre-pandemic peak in February 2020.

For May, 9.3 million people were counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work. Of those, 3.8 million have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. Another 5.3 million people were counted among those working part-time because their hours were reduced or they were unable to find full-time positions.

The labor participation rate edged down a tenth of a point to 61.6 percent, 1.7 points lower than February 2020.

Payroll gains were spread out among a number of industry sectors in May.

Employment increased 292,000 in leisure and hospitality as pandemic restrictions eased in restaurants and bars. Still, employment in the sector remains 15 percent below February 2020.

Employment increased 144,000 in public and private education, 46,000 in health care and social assistance, 35,000 in business and professional services and 23,000 in manuacturing.

Employment decreased 20,000 in construction and 6,000 in retail trades.

The average work week remained unchanged at 34.9 hours for a third straight month. The manufacturing workweek lengthened a tenth of an hour to 40.5 hours. Average hourly earnings rose 15 cents to $30.33.

F

A measure of labor conditions in the United States continues to increase, signaling job growth.

The Conference Board reported its Employment Trends Index rose more than three points to 107.35 in May. The index has increased faster over the past three months than in any other three-month span.

“This marked acceleration suggests historically strong job growth in coming months,” said Gad Levanon, head of the Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. F