Trends

July 21-August 10, 2022 The Business Times News PAge 19 Trends

INDICATORS AT A GLANCE n Business filings Contributors t New business filings in Colorado, 43,780 in the first quarter, down 2.1 percent from the first quarter of 2021. Opinion A measure of optimism among small business owners continues to decline on record-low expectations for an improving n Confidence t Consumer Confidence Index 98.7 for June, down 4.5. t Leeds Business Confidence Business Briefseconomy. The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.6 points to 89.5 in June. The Business People Index for Colorado, 41.1 for the third quarter, down 12.8. t National Federation of Independent Business Small index has remained below its historical average of 98 for six consecutive months. “As inflation continues to dominate business decisions, small business owners’ Almanac Business Optimism Index expectations for better business conditions 89.5 for June, down 3.6. have reached a new low,” said Bill Dunkelberg, n Foreclosures chief economist of the NFIB. “On top of the immediate challenges s Foreclosure filings in facing small business owners, including Mesa County, 18 in inflation and worker shortages, the outlook June, up from 3 in June 2021. for economic policy is not encouraging either as policy talks have shifted to tax increases n Foreclosure sales in and more regulations,” Dunkelberg said. Mesa County, 1 in June, unchanged from 1 in May 2021. Kevin Kuhlman, vice president of federal government relations for the NFIB, agreed. “Inflation remains the top problem for the n Indexes small business economy, and there seems to s Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 119.38 for be no end in sight. Small business optimism has declined for six consecutive months, and June, up 0.5. expectations for better business conditions are at an all-time low.” t Conference Board Leading The small business advocacy group bases the index on the Economic Index 118.3 for results of monthly surveys of members, most of them small May, down 0.4%. business owners. For June, all 10 of the components the index t Institute for Supply Management tracks retreated. The readings for five components were a net Purchasing Managers Index negative, reflecting more negative than positive responses. for manufacturing, 53% for The portion of those who responded to the survey upon which June, down 3.1%. the June index was based who expect the economy to improve n Lodging over the next six months dropped seven points between May and June to net negative 61 percent. That’s the lowest reading in the s Lodging tax collections in 48-year history of the index. Grand Junction, $367,395 A net 23 percent of respondents reported plans for capital for May, up 26.7% outlays, down two points. A net 3 percent said they consider now from May 2021. a good time to expand, down three points. n Real estate The portion of respondents who expect sales to increase fell

Not so great expectations

Small Business Optimism Index drops further on record-low reading 13 points to a net negative 28 percent. The share of those who expect increased profits decreased a point to a net negative 25 percent. Of those reporting lower profits, 30 percent attributed the trend to increased materials costs, 16 percent blamed weaker sales and 14 percent cited higher labor costs. The share of those who reported plans to increase staffing declined seven points to 19 percent. A net 50 percent reported unfilled job openings, down a point from a record-high reading in May. Fully 94 percent of those who said they were hiring reported few or no qualified applicants. While 33 percent reported few applicants, 27 percent reported none. Bill Dunkelberg “The labor force participation rate has been slowly rising this year, with more people taking jobs,” Dunkelberg said. “However, the labor shortage continues to be a difficult problem for small businesses. A few more months of increased employment might get total employment back to pre-pandemic levels.” Higher wages could attract additional employees to the labor market, he said. For June, a net 48 percent of respondents reported raising compensation, down a point. A net 28 percent said they plan to increase compensation in the next three months. Asked to identify their single most important problem, Kevin Kuhlman 34 percent of those who responded cited inflation, up 21 points from a year ago. Another 23 percent cited labor quality, and 8 percent cited labor costs. The Consumer Price Index, a broad measure of the price of everyday goods and services related to the cost of living, was up 9.1 percent in June compared to the same month a year ago. That was the biggest year-over-year gain since 1981. A net 69 percent of respondents to the NFIB survey reported raising average selling prices, down three points from a recordhigh reading in May. Price hikes were most frequent in the retail, transportation, construction and wholesale sectors. Price raising activity has increased over the past year to a level not seen since the 1980s. The share of respondents planning to increase inventories fell three points to a net negative 2 percent. A net 5 percent reported existing inventories were too low, also down three points. F

t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 498 in June, down 26.3% from June 2021. t Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $211 million in June, down 17.3% from June 2021. n Sales

s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $6.2 million for May, up 7% from May 2021. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.2 million for June, up 10.4% from June 2021. n Unemployment

t Mesa County — 3.3% for May, down 0.1.

t Colorado — 3.5% for May, down 0.1. n United States — 3.6% for June, unchanged.

Mesa County tax collections trend upward

Tax collections, one measure of sales activity, continue to increase on a year-over-year basis in Mesa County.

The county collected more than $4.2 million in sales taxes in June, a 10.1 percent increase over what was collected for the same month a year ago.

The county also collected more than $411,000 in use taxes in June — nearly all of that on automobiles purchased outside the county, but used in the county. That was a 13.4 percent gain over the same month last year.

June tax reports reflect May sales.

Sales, use and lodging tax reports for the City of Grand Junction for June weren’t available as of press deadline.

Mesa County tax collections on retail sales topped $2.5 million in June, up 8.8 percent from the same month last year. Collections increased 16.9 percent on home improvements, 9.3 percent on automobiles and 7.9 percent on general merchandise

Sales tax collections also increased on a year-over-year basis in June in the construction, hotel and restaurant, manufacturing and telecommunications categories.

Through the first half of 2022, Mesa County collected nearly $23.4 million in sales taxes. That’s an increase of more than $2.3 million and 11.4 percent over the first half of 2021.

The county collected almost $2.2 million in use taxes through the first half of 2022, a 15.5 percent gain over the first half of 2021.

Year-to-date tax collections on retail sales exceeded $14.2 million, a 6.8 percent increase fueled by gains in seven of eight categories. They included an 11 percent increase in home improvements, 5.8 percent increase in general merchandise and 5.6 percent gain in automobiles. Collections on food and beverages edged down a tenth of a percent.

Year-to-date sales tax collections also increased in all but one of the other industry categories, including an 18.7 percent gain in the wholesale category, 15.5 percent gain in the manufacturing category and 11.5 percent gain in the hotel and restaurant category. Collections decreased 15 percent in the finance category.

MESA COUNTY TAX COLLECTIONS

June 2022 June 2021 Change

Sales tax $4,253,602 $3,862,125 10.1% Use tax $411,307 $362,698 13.4%

Total $4,664,909 $4,224,824 10.4%

The Business Times U.S. payrolls grow, jobless rate steady

United States payrolls increased 372,000 in June and the national unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 percent for a fourth consecutive month, according to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates.

Payroll gains for the previous two months were revised downward, however, a total of 74,000 to 384,000 for May and 368,000 in April.

With the latest numbers, nonfarm payrolls have increased an average of 383,000 a month over the past three months.

Total U.S payrolls remain 524,000 below the February 2020 level and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. But private-sector employment has recovered job losses from the pandemic and related restrictions at 140,000 jobs higher than February 2020. Government employment is 664,000 lower.

For June, 5.9 million people were counted among those unsuccessfully looking for work. Of those, 1.3 million have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer. Another 3.6 million people were counted among those working part-time because their hours were cut or they were unable to find full-time positions.

The labor participation rate — the portion of the population working or looking for work — edged down a tenth of a point to 62.2 percent. That’s still below the 63.4 percent labor participation rate in February 2020.

Payroll gains in May were spread out among industry sectors. Employment increased 74,000 in professional and business services, 67,000 in leisure and hospitality and 57,000 in health care.

The average workweek shortened a tenth of an hour to 34.5 hours. The manufacturing workweek slipped a tenth of an hour to 40.3 hours.

Average hourly earnings rose 10 cents to $32.08. Over the past year, hourly earnings have increased 5.1 percent. F

July 21-august 10, 2022 Labor index rises

An index tracking labor trends has increased, signaling continued, albeit slowing, job growth.

The Conference Board reported its Employment Trends Index rose a half point between May and June to 119.38 with four of eight components advancing. The latest reading remains below those for April and March, however.

“We expect positive, but decelerating, job growth over the next months,” said Frank Steemers, senior economist at the Conference Board. F