News Trends Contributors Not so great expectations Opinion Business Briefs Business People Almanac
July 21-August 10, 2022
The Business Times
PAge 19
INDICATORS AT A GLANCE
n Business filings
t New business filings in Colorado, 43,780 in the first quarter, down 2.1 percent from the first quarter of 2021.
n Confidence
t Consumer Confidence Index 98.7 for June, down 4.5. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 41.1 for the third quarter, down 12.8. t National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 89.5 for June, down 3.6.
n Foreclosures s Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 18 in June, up from 3 in June 2021. n Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 1 in June, unchanged from 1 in May 2021.
n Indexes
s Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 119.38 for June, up 0.5. t Conference Board Leading Economic Index 118.3 for May, down 0.4%. t Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 53% for June, down 3.1%.
n Lodging
s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $367,395 for May, up 26.7% from May 2021.
n Real estate
t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 498 in June, down 26.3% from June 2021. t Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $211 million in June, down 17.3% from June 2021.
n Sales
s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $6.2 million for May, up 7% from May 2021. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.2 million for June, up 10.4% from June 2021.
n Unemployment t Mesa County — 3.3% for May, down 0.1. t Colorado — 3.5% for May, down 0.1. n United States — 3.6% for June, unchanged.
Small Business Optimism Index drops further on record-low reading A measure of optimism among small business owners continues to decline on record-low expectations for an improving economy. The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.6 points to 89.5 in June. The index has remained below its historical average of 98 for six consecutive months. “As inflation continues to dominate business decisions, small business owners’ expectations for better business conditions have reached a new low,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB. Bill Dunkelberg “On top of the immediate challenges facing small business owners, including inflation and worker shortages, the outlook for economic policy is not encouraging either as policy talks have shifted to tax increases and more regulations,” Dunkelberg said. Kevin Kuhlman, vice president of federal government relations for the NFIB, agreed. “Inflation remains the top problem for the small business economy, and there seems to be no end in sight. Small business optimism Kevin Kuhlman has declined for six consecutive months, and expectations for better business conditions are at an all-time low.” The small business advocacy group bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members, most of them small business owners. For June, all 10 of the components the index tracks retreated. The readings for five components were a net negative, reflecting more negative than positive responses. The portion of those who responded to the survey upon which the June index was based who expect the economy to improve over the next six months dropped seven points between May and June to net negative 61 percent. That’s the lowest reading in the 48-year history of the index. A net 23 percent of respondents reported plans for capital outlays, down two points. A net 3 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, down three points. The portion of respondents who expect sales to increase fell
13 points to a net negative 28 percent. The share of those who expect increased profits decreased a point to a net negative 25 percent. Of those reporting lower profits, 30 percent attributed the trend to increased materials costs, 16 percent blamed weaker sales and 14 percent cited higher labor costs. The share of those who reported plans to increase staffing declined seven points to 19 percent. A net 50 percent reported unfilled job openings, down a point from a record-high reading in May. Fully 94 percent of those who said they were hiring reported few or no qualified applicants. While 33 percent reported few applicants, 27 percent reported none. “The labor force participation rate has been slowly rising this year, with more people taking jobs,” Dunkelberg said. “However, the labor shortage continues to be a difficult problem for small businesses. A few more months of increased employment might get total employment back to pre-pandemic levels.” Higher wages could attract additional employees to the labor market, he said. For June, a net 48 percent of respondents reported raising compensation, down a point. A net 28 percent said they plan to increase compensation in the next three months. Asked to identify their single most important problem, 34 percent of those who responded cited inflation, up 21 points from a year ago. Another 23 percent cited labor quality, and 8 percent cited labor costs. The Consumer Price Index, a broad measure of the price of everyday goods and services related to the cost of living, was up 9.1 percent in June compared to the same month a year ago. That was the biggest year-over-year gain since 1981. A net 69 percent of respondents to the NFIB survey reported raising average selling prices, down three points from a recordhigh reading in May. Price hikes were most frequent in the retail, transportation, construction and wholesale sectors. Price raising activity has increased over the past year to a level not seen since the 1980s. The share of respondents planning to increase inventories fell three points to a net negative 2 percent. A net 5 percent reported existing inventories were too low, also down three points. F
Mesa County tax collections trend upward Tax collections, one measure of sales activity, continue to increase on a year-over-year basis in Mesa County. The county collected more than $4.2 million in sales taxes in June, a 10.1 percent increase over what was collected for the same month a year ago. The county also collected more than $411,000 in use taxes in June — nearly all of that on automobiles purchased outside the county, but used in the county. That was a 13.4 percent gain over the same month last year. June tax reports reflect May sales. Sales, use and lodging tax reports for the City of Grand Junction for June weren’t available as of press deadline. Mesa County tax collections on retail sales topped $2.5 million in June, up 8.8 percent from the same month last year. Collections increased 16.9 percent on home improvements, 9.3 percent on automobiles and 7.9 percent on general merchandise Sales tax collections also increased on a year-over-year basis in June in the construction, hotel and restaurant, manufacturing and telecommunications categories. Through the first half of 2022, Mesa County collected nearly $23.4 million in sales taxes. That’s an increase of more than $2.3 million and 11.4 percent over the first half of 2021.
MESA COUNTY TAX COLLECTIONS
Sales tax Use tax Total
June 2022 $4,253,602 $411,307 $4,664,909
June 2021 $3,862,125 $362,698 $4,224,824
Change 10.1% 13.4% 10.4%
The county collected almost $2.2 million in use taxes through the first half of 2022, a 15.5 percent gain over the first half of 2021. Year-to-date tax collections on retail sales exceeded $14.2 million, a 6.8 percent increase fueled by gains in seven of eight categories. They included an 11 percent increase in home improvements, 5.8 percent increase in general merchandise and 5.6 percent gain in automobiles. Collections on food and beverages edged down a tenth of a percent. Year-to-date sales tax collections also increased in all but one of the other industry categories, including an 18.7 percent gain in the wholesale category, 15.5 percent gain in the manufacturing category and 11.5 percent gain in the hotel and restaurant category. Collections decreased 15 percent in the finance category. F
