News Trends Real estate numbers mixed Contributors Opinion Business Briefs Business People Almanac
September 16-29, 2021
The Business Times
page 15
INDICATORS AT A GLANCE
n Business filings
s New business filings in Colorado, 39,252 in the second quarter, up 25.7% from the second quarter of 2020.
n Confidence
t Consumer Confidence Index 113.8 in August, down 11.3 s Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 67.3 for the third quarter, up 2.9. s National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 100.1 for August, up 0.4.
n Foreclosures
t Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 6 in August, down from 4 in August 2020. t Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 0 in August, down from 2 in August 2020.
n Indexes
s Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 110.37 for August, up 0.48. s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 116 for July, up 0.9%. s Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 59.9% for August, up 0.4%.
n Lodging
s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $237,328 for July, up 119.7% from July 2020.
n Real estate
s Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 544 in August, up 0.37% from August 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $221 million in August, up 39.9% from August 2020.
n Sales
s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $6.5 million for July, up 22.7% from July 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.2 million for August, up 15.7% from August 2020.
n Unemployment t Mesa County — 6.3% for July, down 0.6. t Colorado — 6.1% for July, down 0.1. t United States — 5.2% for August, down 0.2.
Residential sales slip, but overall dollar volume gains biggest in 16 years Phil Castle
The Business Times
Robert Bray believes a slight pause in residential real estate sales in Mesa County in August could bode well for subsequent activity by replenishing low inventories. “It’s an encouraging time for buyers,” said Bray, chief executive officer of Bray Real Estate in Grand Junction. Meanwhile, increased commercial sales and higher prices have pushed year-over-year gains in dollar volume in Mesa County to their Robert Bray highest levels in 16 years, said Annette Miller, administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction. Miller said 544 real estate transactions worth a total of $221 million were reported in Mesa County in August. That’s only two more transactions than the same month last year, but $63 million more in dollar volume. Just 25 transactions accounted for a combined $48 million, Miller said. They Annette Miller included the sale of the 1,720-acre Grove Creek Ranch in the Collbran area for $6.3 million, a strip mall on Horizon Drive in Grand Junction for $3.3 million and a commercial truck center in Fruita for $2.8 million. Through August, 4,201 transactions worth a total of more than $1.5 billion were reported in 2021. Compared to the same span last year, transactions increased 19.7 percent and dollar volume rose 42.8 percent. The proportional gain in dollar volume was the largest since a 25.6 percent increase in year-end dollar volume from 2004 to 2005 and the midst of a natural gas development boom in Western Colorado, Miller said. “We’ve got quite a bit of commercial and also price appreciation driving that.” If the current pace of sales continues, 2021 would end with
6,301 transactions worth a total of nearly $2.3 billion. Real estate activity peaked in Mesa County with 7,198 transactions in 2005 and $1.72 billion in dollar volume in 2006. According to numbers Bray Real Estate tracks for the residential market in Mesa County, 318 transactions worth a total of $122 million were reported in August. Compared to the same month last year, transactions decreased 19.1 percent and dollar volume declined 9 percent. “Buyers were taking a little pause,” Bray said. Some were likely discouraged by low inventories and competition for those homes on the market, he said. Year-to-date residential activity in 2021 outpaces 2020, however. Through August, 2,740 transactions worth a combined $994 million were reported. Compared to the same span last year, transactions increased 5.9 percent and dollar volume rose 25.2 percent. At the end of August, there were 400 active listings. That’s a decrease of 7.2 percent from the same time last year. However, more than 400 new listings have come onto the market in each of the last four months. Bray said he expects inventories to rebuild and offer more selections to buyers. At the same time, new construction has increased. Through August, 672 building permits for single family homes were issued in Mesa County in 2021. That’s an increase of 35.7 percent over the same span last year. Low supplies and high demand have pushed prices upward. The median price of homes sold during the first eight months of 2021 increased 16.1 percent to $325,000 compared to the same span in 2020. Bray said the market remains strong. “It’ll still be a good year in real estate.” Meanwhile, property foreclosure activity continues to decrease. Miller said 19 foreclosure filings and 13 sales were reported during the first eight months of 2021. That’s down 75.3 percent and 43.5 percent, respectively from the same span in 2020. The seven resales of foreclosed properties were a fraction of all transactions and the 10 percent threshold Miller considers indicative of a healthy market. F
Index up, but so are small business concerns A measure of optimism among small business owners has increased, but so have concerns over labor and supply chain issues. “As the economy moves into the fourth quarter, small business owners are losing confidence in the strength of future business conditions,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Business. “The biggest problems facing small employers right now is finding enough labor to meet their demand and, for many, managing supply chain disruptions.” The NFIB reported its Small Business Bill Dunkelberg Optimism Index rose four-tenths of a point to 100.1 in August. The index is based on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners. For August, five of 10 components of the index advanced, four declined and one remained unchanged. The proportion of those responding to the survey upon which the August index was based who expect the economy to improve in coming months fell eight points. At a net negative 28 percent, more respondents expected worsening conditions. The component has dropped 16 points over the past two months to its lowest level since 2013. A net 30 percent of owners reported plans to increase capital outlays in coming months. That’s up four points from July, but
still historically weak. A net 10 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, down three points. A net 32 percent of those responding to the survey reported plans to increase employment, up five points from a month ago. A net 50 percent reported unfilled job openings, up a point to a record high for a second consecutive month. Asked to identify their single most important business problem, a record 28 percent cited quality of labor and 8 percent labor costs. A net 41 percent reported raising compensation, up three points to a record level. A net 26 percent said they plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down a point from a record-high reading in July. The share of those who said they expect higher sales rose two points. But at net negative 2 percent, more said they anticipated lower sales. The proportion of those reporting higher earnings fell two points to a net negative 15 percent. Among those reporting lower earnings, 34 percent blamed higher material costs, 27 percent cited weaker sales and 9 percent attributed the change to labor costs. For those reporting higher earnings, 60 percent credited increased sales and 10 percent higher prices. A net 11 percent of respondents reported plans to increase inventories, up five points. A net 11 percent said they consider their current inventories too low, down a point from a record reading in July. F
