News Trends Real estate numbers mixed Contributors Opinion Business Briefs Business People Almanac
November 11-24, 2021
The Business Times
Page 15
INDICATORS AT A GLANCE
n Business filings t New business filings in Colorado, 38,211 in the third quarter, down 1.2% from the third quarter of 2020.
n Confidence
s Consumer Confidence Index 113.8 in October, up 4.0. t Leeds Business Confidence Index for Colorado, 56.1 for the fourth quarter, down 11.2. t National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index 98.2 for October, down 0.9.
n Foreclosures
t Foreclosure filings in Mesa County, 1 in October, down from 2 in October 2020. s Foreclosure sales in Mesa County, 3 in October, up from 2 in October 2020.
n Indexes
s Conference Board Employment Trends Index, 112.23 for October, up 2.55. s Conference Board Leading Economic Index 117.5 for September, up 0.2%. t Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing, 60.8% for October, down 0.3%.
n Lodging
s Lodging tax collections in Grand Junction, $177,537 for September, up 30.7% from September 2020.
n Real estate
t Real estate transactions in Mesa County, 480 in October, down 17.1% from October 2020. s Dollar volume of real estate transactions in Mesa County, $204 million in October, up 9.7% from October 2020.
n Sales
s Sales and use tax collections in Grand Junction, $5.78 million for September, up 14.7% from September 2020. s Sales and use tax collections in Mesa County, $4.32 million for October, up 17.1% from October 2020.
n Unemployment t Mesa County — 4.8% for September, down 0.9. t Colorado — 5.6% for September, down 0.3. t United States — 4.6% for September, down 0.2.
Transactions down, but dollar volume still way up in Mesa County Phil Castle
The Business Times
Even as the number of real estate transactions trends downward in Mesa County, higher prices and large commercial deals push dollar volume to record heights. Robert Bray, chief executive officer of Bray Real estate in Grand Junction, sees lower inventories and higher prices as villains in slowing residential sales, while new construction has become a hero in helping to meet demand. Looking ahead, Bray said Robert Bray there’s the potential for higher interest rates on mortgages to play a role as well. Annette Young, administrative coordinator at Heritage Title Co. in Grand Junction, agreed low inventories have slowed sales, but said the market remains busy overall. Young said 480 transactions worth a total of $204 million were reported in Mesa County in October. While transactions fell 17.1 percent compared to the same month last year, dollar Annette Young volume rose 9.7 percent. Just 18 transactions accounted for a total of $49 million, Young said. They included the sale of an apartment complex on Knollwood Drive in Grand Junction for $10 million, the property where Tractor Supply is located for $5.5 million and a manufacturing warehouse and 20 acres where Grand Junction Steel was located for $5.5 million. Through the first 10 months of 2021, 5,191 transactions worth a collective $1.93 billion were reported. Just 145 transactions accounted for a total of $326 million. Compared to the same span in 2020, transactions increased 11.5 percent and dollar volume rose 34.9 percent. With two months still left in 2021, dollar volume already has topped the previous peak of nearly $1.73 billion in 2006. Transactions remain below the 7,198 reported in 2005. According to numbers Bray Real Estate tracks for the
residential market, 300 transactions worth a combined $109 million were reported in October. Compared to the same month last year, transactions fell 27 percent and dollar volume dropped 23.2 percent. Year-to-date residential activity for 2021 still outpaces 2020, however. Through October, 3,433 transactions worth a total of $1.3 billion were reported. Compared to the same span last year, transactions increased 1.7 percent and dollar volume advanced 18.2 percent. Bray said lower inventories and higher prices have prompted some homebuyers to take a break from what’s been a competition for listings with multiple offers above asking prices. Rising prices have made affordability a more pressing issue, he said. “You can’t keep up with that and not be affected.” Residential inventories have picked up in recent months. The 392 active listings at the end of October constituted a 4.8 percent increase over the same time last year. Low supplies and high demand continue to push prices higher. The median price for homes sold through the first 10 months of 2021 increased 15.1 percent to $328,000. New home construction has helped to meet demand, Bray said. A total of 793 single family building permits were issued in Mesa County through the first 10 months of 2021, a 22 percent increase over the same span in 2020 on the way to what Bray expects will be a record year. Bray said he expects the year-end number of residential transactions for 2021 to match or perhaps slip below 2020, but still considers 2021 a good year for residential real estate in Mesa County. Commercial activity has been strong, he said. Looking further ahead, Bray said interest rates on mortgages remain historically low, but could edge up and eliminate some potential buyers. Meanwhile, property foreclosure activity continues to decrease in Mesa County. Young said 22 filings and 18 sales were reported through the first 10 months in 2021. That’s down 73.5 percent and 35.7 percent, respectively, from the same span in 2020. The seven resales of foreclosed properties in 2021 constituted less than 1 percent of all transactions, well below the 10 percent threshold Young considers indicative of a healthy market. F
Small Business Optimism Index declines A measure of optimism among small business owners has declined even as concerns over labor and inventory shortages mount heading into the holiday shopping season. The National Federation of Independent Business reported it’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased nine-tenths of a point to 98.2 in October. “Small business owners are attempting to take advantage of current economic growth, but remain pessimistic about business conditions in the near future,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB. “One of the biggest problems for small Bill Dunkelberg businesses is the lack of workers for unfilled positions and inventory shortages, which will continue to be a problem during the holiday season,” Dunkelberg said. The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members, most of them small business owners. For October, seven of 10 components of the index declined, one advanced and two remained unchanged from September. The proportion of those responding to the survey upon which the October index was based who said they expect the economy to improve in coming months dropped four points. At net negative 37 percent, more respondents expected worsening conditions.
The component has dropped 17 points over the past three months to its lowest level since November 2012. A net 31 percent of respondents reported plans to increase capital outlays, up three points. A net 10 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, down a point. A net 26 percent reported plans to increase staffing, unchanged from September. A net 49 percent reported unfilled job openings, down two points from a record-high reading for the 48-year-old index. Asked to identify their single most important business problem, 24 percent cited labor quality and 10 percent labor costs. A net 44 percent of respondents said they raised compensation, a record-high proportion. A net 32 percent said they plan to raise compensation in the next three months. The proportion of those who said they expect more sales dropped two points to net zero. The share of those reporting higher earnings dropped three points. At a net negative 17 percent, a bigger share reported lower earnings. Among those reporting lower earnings, 31 percent blamed higher material costs and 25 percent cited weaker sales. Among those reporting higher earnings, 56 percent credited stronger sales. A net 8 percent reported plans to increase inventories, down a point. A net 9 percent said they consider current inventories too low, also down a point. F
