The Geographer: Flooding (Autumn 2014)

The

Geographer Autumn 2014

The newsletter of the

Royal Scottish Geographical Society

Keeping Our Heads Above Water Flood risks, reasons & responses

In This Edition...

•E xciting New Talks Programme •1 30 Years of Inspiration •P luvial, Fluvial and Coastal Flooding •M anaging, Monitoring and Minimising Risk •S EPA’s Scottish Vulnerable Areas Map •F lood Forecasting, Forewarning, Forearming •E ducation: Science Matters •R eader Offer: The Irresponsible Traveller

“No single raindrop believes it is to blame for the flood.”

Anon

plus other news, comments, books...

RSGS: helping to make the connections between people, places & the planet

The

Geographer

flooding

F

looding is about as core a geographical topic as there is – a complex problem, brought about by multiple factors, exacerbated by land use and social practice, and impacting on people’s lives in a dramatic way.

You only need to look at the current problems in Pakistan and India to understand the severity of the issue. Flooding has been a problem throughout human history, but as we increase our populations and build on more areas of land, the pressure on those areas of land prone to flooding appears to be increasing.

Interestingly, the country in which the most severe floods happened historically was the Netherlands; however, these incidents are no longer life-threatening in the way they once were, so perhaps this is evidence that there are solutions available. But most countries are still affected, and many are having to take increasing action to mitigate against floods of varying degrees.

Iain Stewart - Planet Oil

George McGavin -Tales from Television © BBC

In part, some of the increased costs of flooding are indicative of the increased value of our property; indeed, D Alan Stevenson wrote in the Scottish Geographical Magazine in 1937 that “…the high value of the property concerned gave to the event an importance out of all proportion to the relatively small size of the areas affected.”

In the early 1950s the RSGS formed a group to start properly investigating why floods were occurring in Scotland and what factors played a role, in an attempt to increase our understanding and to reduce their incidence and severity. The new forum advocated that voluntary ‘flying squads’ should be constituted in various parts of the country, to visit flood sites and investigate flooding incidents as soon as they happened in order to learn as much as possible about the circumstances. That early forum eventually led to the establishment of the Institute for Hydrology which has helped to increase our understanding and preparedness for flooding events.

Tori James - Beeline Britain

Børge Ousland - Against All Odds

So what are the main factors in flooding? How much is it due to increased rain, how much to increased run-off, how much to inappropriate building, or factors such as land management, or even drainage capacity? Should we be worrying more about pluvial flooding (puddles) than we do about river and coastal flooding? And what are the costs of flooding – for insurance and communities?

I hope you will find this edition of The Geographer, compiled with help from Andrew Black of the University of Dundee, and Stewart Prodger from SEPA, as interesting and enjoyable as ever.

Mike Robinson, Chief Executive RSGS, Lord John Murray House, 15-19 North Port, Perth, PH1 5LU tel: 01738 455050 email: enquiries@rsgs.org www.rsgs.org Charity registered in Scotland no SC015599 The views expressed in this newsletter are not necessarily those of the RSGS. Cover images: Old stone Packhorse Bridge, River Dulnain, Carrbridge. © Fergus Thom Masthead image: Autumn fungi. © Mike Robinson

Leo Houlding - The Last Great Climb

RSGS: helping to make the connections between people, places & the planet

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NEWS People • Places • Planet

Inspiring People 2014-15

What do a world-leading wildlife film-maker, Britain’s most legendary young climber, Norway’s leading polar explorer, TV presenters, several Everest summiteers, a man who circumnavigated the world under his own steam, and a round-the-world yachtswoman all have in common?

Doug Allan - The Changing Poles

The answer is that they are all giving public talks for the RSGS this winter. With stories from the top of the world to the ends of the world and around and above the world, from Glasgow to Rockall, from Harris to Iceland, from North Korea to New Zealand, and from China to the mountains of the Antarctic, there are stories from everywhere for everyone.

Please check the Inspiring People talks programme for further details. And please do come along, and bring a friend or two, to hear some of these amazing speakers!

Stephen Venables - Enchanted Island

Craig Mathieson - Some Like It Cold…

Jason Lewis - Expedition 360

Piers Sellers - Around the World in 80 Minutes © NASA

Jeremy Hunter - Arirang

NEWS People • Places • Planet Storage Solution Apologies to those of you who might have wished to visit the Fair Maid’s House in Perth during early September, as we had to close the visitor centre in order to fit specialist roller shelving in our archive room. The new shelving will greatly increase the storage space in the room, and will allow us finally to unpack some of the boxes left over from our move from temporary storage in 2011. We are very grateful to the two members who kindly (and anonymously) donated £4,000 each towards the costs of this shelving.

Stonehenge, Superhenge Scientists, including Dr Richard Bates of the University of St Andrews, have unveiled a remarkable new picture of Stonehenge and its surrounding areas, including the remains of an even bigger ‘super henge’ nearby.

The mammoth project, led by the University of Birmingham in conjunction with the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Archaeological Prospection and Virtual Archaeology, is likely to transform our knowledge of this iconic landscape.

SGJ growing all the time Thanks to the efforts of Lorna Philip and Tim Mighall, we are pleased to report that the Scottish Geographical Journal has achieved its highest impact factor rating ever, and continues to gain wider recognition, with 6,000 more downloads in 2013 than the previous year. The whole 130-year archive is available electronically through Taylor & Francis online at www.tandf. co.uk/journals/RSGJ, and is free to RSGS members.

Wilder winters New research published in the International Journal of Climatology shows that weather patterns over the UK have become distinctly more unstable, resulting in contrasting conditions from very mild, wet and stormy to extremely cold and snowy.

Winter weather conditions are commonly defined using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a south-north seesaw of barometric pressure variations over the North Atlantic which indicates the strength of westerly winds and resulting weather patterns. When westerly winds are strong (positive NAO phase), Britain experiences mild, wet and often stormy weather – like last winter. Weaker or reverse airflow (negative NAO phase) typically

brings cold, snowy weather, which featured prominently in the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11.

Climatologists and other scientists found that most seasons didn’t show overall long-term NAO trends, but winter, especially early winter including December, showed a significant systematic rise in variation over the last century. Professor Edward Hanna, from the University of Sheffield, said, “We cannot use these results directly to predict this winter’s weather, but according to the long-term NAO trend we can say that the probability of getting extreme winter weather – either mild/stormy or cold/snowy – has significantly increased in the last few decades.”

Female hurricanes more deadly than the male…

A recent report from academics at the University of Illinois, who studied 60 years of records, showed that those tropical storms which developed into hurricanes with female names were deadlier than those given male names. Those with female names, such as Bertha, Wilma, Katrina and Rita, caused nearly three times as many fatalities. The scientists concluded that people’s in-built gender-based expectations meant that many viewed those hurricanes with feminine names as having a lower perceived risk and therefore they took less evasive action. See pnas.org/ content/111/24/8782 for the full report.

Electromagnetic survey results showing the outer bank at Durrington Walls, marking the circumference of the new super henge.

Terror bits?

For the project, Dr Bates used remote sensing techniques and geophysical surveys to discover hundreds of new features which now form part of the most detailed archaeological digital map of the Stonehenge landscape ever produced.

In September, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, joined by Leona Aglukkaq, Minister of the Environment, and Ryan Harris, Senior Underwater Archaeologist and Project Lead for Parks Canada, announced the discovery of one of the ships belonging to the ill-fated Franklin Expedition lost in 1846.

The startling results of the survey include 17 previously unknown ritual monuments dating to the period when Stonehenge achieved its iconic shape. The project has also revealed completely unexpected information on previously known monuments.

“This year’s Victoria Strait Expedition has solved one of Canada’s greatest mysteries, with the discovery of one of the two ships belonging to the Franklin Expedition lost in 1846. Although we do not know yet whether the discovery is HMS Erebus or HMS Terror, we do have enough information to confirm its authenticity,” said Harper.

In Orkney, Dr Bates is currently applying some of the new techniques to study the landscapes around the henges of the Ring of Brodgar and Stones of Stenness.

“This is truly a historic moment for Canada. Since 2008, there have been six major Parks Canada-led searches for the lost Franklin Expedition ships, painstakingly covering many hundreds of square kilometres of the Arctic seabed.”

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NEWS People • Places • Planet 1926 University Medal

Scotland Says No

We were delighted recently to receive this RSGS University Medal from 1926, awarded to Thomas Spiller who graduated from the University of Aberdeen with a firstclass honours degree and went on to join the army in India.

The Medal was returned to the RSGS by Mr Cornelius David, whose friends Kor and Dorothy Newhouse are neighbours of our Chief Executive. Along with the Medal are Spiller’s degree certificates, teaching certificates, and even a letter of reference from the university recommending his suitability for a career in the army.

The RSGS’s entire collection has been gifted over the years, and is now a wonderful historical archive of the development of geography in Scotland, and a collection of artefacts and stories of some of the inspiring names who have had a connection with the Society.

Anybody wishing to donate items to the RSGS is welcome to get in touch, as we are always interested in improving our collections. We do of course need to store, display and maintain them, which costs money, so we particularly welcome those items supported by donations too.

In September, after a great deal of debate around independence (including discussions on issues of currency, taxation, pensions, defence, and EU membership – all of which were examined in the spring 2014 edition of The Geographer), the referendum on whether Scotland should be an independent country returned an answer of 45% for Yes and 55% for No, with a remarkable turnout of 84.6%. It has surely engaged more people politically than any other single issue in recent memory. We await the next developments with interest.

Very appealing – Croll update In May we wrote to many of you, seeking your help to raise enough money to develop the garden area of our visitor and education centre, and to improve some of the wider interpretation. We set a minimum target of £16,000, and are delighted to be able to report that we have currently received or been pledged Celebrating Croll £14,864. We have begun meetings with a number of designers, artists and builders to establish how to take a design forward.

Thank you to those many members amongst you who have donated to date. We are also grateful to three local trusts – The Guildry Incorporation of Perth, The Thomson Trust, and the Aberbrothock Skea Trust – for their generous support. The plan is to progress designs during this winter, and to install in late spring 2015.

“Croll was one of the truly great Scottish scientists – someone who revolutionised how we think about the climate of the past... and from that, what’s waiting for us in the future.”

Professor Iain Stewart

RSGS Appeal Envelope 28.indd 1

Writers-in-Residence Our writers-in-residence have been working throughout the summer.

Hazel Buchan Cameron is mentoring young writer Josh Morris in a variety of writing skills and approaches, drawing inspiration from the collections, history and work of the RSGS. With a collection of 200,000 maps and 40,000 books, a bulging archive, and an association with many of the world’s most famous scientists, explorers, adventurers and educationalists, the RSGS has been described as a repository of some of the best stories of the past century and a half.

“There are so many inspiring people’s stories connected to the Society it is hard to draw breath,” Hazel commented. RSGS Chief Executive Mike Robinson is very enthusiastic: “We are grateful to the project funders, Creative Scotland and Perth & Kinross Council, for giving us this opportunity to introduce Hazel and Josh to our collections. It has been really rewarding seeing them become more and more engrossed in discovering the many and varied stories hidden away. I genuinely believe there is something here to interest everyone.”

The project culminates in an exhibition in Perth Museum, open throughout October, November and December.

14/05/2014 14:58

Humanity’s Adolescence Josh Morris

We built upwards, As time ran away, We swapped it for torrents, Of brown, mouldy, rain water.

Fifty years waiting, Hoping for a hero or a tyrant, We watched the water rise, We justified our comforts.

Invisible gases and distant consequences, A deadly combination.

In panic and fear, We tore open the veins of the countryside, Filled them with concrete, And still the waters rose.

In the end, Prediction was our only solace.

We clambered up metal and stone towers, Attempting to hold onto what we knew, And what was.

And here I sit, On the roof of the third high-rise, On the bank of where Ouse once was, Below my dangling legs, The water is still, tainted with soil.

The Whole in the Ozone

The Earth’s protective ozone layer is well on track to recovery in the next few decades thanks to concerted international action against ozone-depleting substances, according to a new assessment by 300 scientists. The Assessment for DecisionMakers, a summary document of the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2014, published by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization, is the first comprehensive update in four years.

Without the Montreal Protocol, one of the world’s most successful environmental treaties, atmospheric levels of ozone-depleting substances could have increased tenfold by 2050, resulting in two million cases of skin cancer annually, increased damage to eyes and immune systems, and negative impacts on wildlife and agriculture.

The phase-out of ozonedepleting substances has had a positive spin-off for the global climate because many of these substances are also potent greenhouse gases. However, the assessment report cautions that the rapid increase in certain substitutes, which are themselves also potent greenhouse gases, has the potential to undermine these gains.

NEWS People • Places • Planet Ebola in West Africa The current outbreak of Ebola, one of the zoonotic diseases discussed in the winter 2013-14 edition of The Geographer, has become the deadliest occurrence of the disease since its discovery in 1976. In August, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared an “international public health emergency”, saying that a co-ordinated response was essential to halt the spread of the virus.

Figures accurate to 8-11 September, depending on country.

In September, WHO Death toll in Liberia includes probable, suspect and confirmed cases, while in Sierra Leone and Guinea only Director-General confirmed cases are shown. Image © BBC Margaret Chan said that the “number of patients is moving far faster than the capacity to manage them.”

Researchers from the New England Journal of Medicine traced the outbreak to a two-year-old girl, who died in December 2013 in Meliandou, a small village in the south-eastern Guinean region of Gueckedou, a major regional trading centre. By the end of March, Ebola had crossed the border into Liberia, and by early September, it had killed more than 2,200 people in Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Nigeria. In mid-September, President Obama agreed to send US troops to help contain the outbreak, and live human trials of two possible vaccines were accelerated, with a view to immunising health workers in affected areas by the end of the year.

Ebola occurs in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, though normally fewer than 500 cases occur each year, and no cases at all were reported between 1979 and 1994. WHO has estimated that there could be as many as 20,000 cases before the current outbreak is brought under control.

We are very pleased to be able to use some stunning images in this edition of The Geographer from young film-maker and photographer Fergus Thom from Carrbridge.

Fergus captured the flooding at Dulnain Bridge featured on the front cover. The contrast, I’m sure you’ll agree, is astonishing. You can see more of Fergus’ work, including a number of short films, on his website, www.fergusthom.com.

The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2013, propelled by a surge in levels of carbon dioxide, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. It showed that between 1990 and 2013 there was a 34% increase in radiative forcing (the warming effect on our climate) because of long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

The observations from WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch network showed that CO2 levels increased more between 2012 and 2013 than during any other year since 1984. Preliminary data indicated that this was possibly related to reduced CO2 uptake by the Earth’s biosphere, in addition to the steadily increasing CO2 emissions.

396 ppm

© Green Prophet WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said, “The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin shows that, far from falling, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere actually increased last year at the fastest rate for nearly 30 years. We must reverse this trend by cutting emissions of CO2. We are running out of time.”

On the global scale, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere reached 396.0 parts per million in 2013.

Getting Staffed This year has seen a great deal of staff upheaval, and it has been difficult keeping our heads entirely above water since May. However, I am very pleased to say that we have been able to recruit a really excellent team whom I hope many of you will get to know over the coming months.

Linda Davidson joined us in July us as our new Finance Officer, with a wealth of experience in small business. Our new Communications Officer, Gemma McDonald, joined us at the end of September, bringing considerable skills and enthusiasm to the role of promoting the RSGS to a wide range of audiences to encourage them to support us. And Alexa Martin, who joined us in June, and whom you will know if you have phoned or visited the office since then, has agreed to stay with us until at least next June, taking on many of the office and local groups communication tasks.

Rachel Hay, an enthusiastic young geography teacher, has taken over from Joyce Gilbert as our Education Officer. Joyce left in September after three years in what she described as her “best job ever”. We wish her all the best with her move north, and are grateful for all her enthusiasm and drive in helping to establish our educational work in so many schools and with so many projects.

Flooding in Pakistan & India Pakistani authorities have breached a strategic dyke in flood-affected Punjab to ease pressure on flood defences downstream and protect urban areas, causing more than 700,000 villagers to flee their homes.

Emergency teams blew up a dyke on the west bank of the Chenab river upstream from a major dam at Trimmu, in order to prevent flood waters from bursting through, but flooding 200 villages in the area as a result.

flooding

FergusThom.com

Greenhouse Gas Bulletin

The current flooding is also the worst that Kashmir has seen in decades, with an estimated 400,000 people now stranded there.

Rescue operations are continuing and, with harvesting due to start soon, many are concerned that if the water does not recede, it will push crop prices up.

The death toll from both countries has passed 450.

Buy an inspiring gift that lasts all year.

RSGS Gift Membership makes an excellent Christmas present for friends or family.

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NEWS People • Places • Planet 130 Years of Inspiration Mike Robinson, Chief Executive 2014 marks the 130th anniversary of the founding of the (Royal) Scottish Geographical Society.

Despite its longevity it remains relatively little known, and yet its staff and Council members have gone on to make quite an impact on Scotland and the wider world. One became UK Prime Minister, another a Maharaja. They were responsible for epic rescue dramas such as the Emin Pasha Relief Expedition and the Endurance expedition of 1914-17. One designed Tel Aviv and saved the Edinburgh Old Town from demolition. Another inspired Jurassic Park and Conan Doyle’s The Lost World.

These men and women have promoted, funded and run over 300 research expeditions, most notably the Scotia expedition, and their numbers include two of the greatest British polar explorers of all time. Glaciers, ice shelves, seas, large stretches of land, rivers, animals, boats, and even body parts have been named by (or named after) people connected to the Society. And closer to home, the Society’s members and Council have helped establish countless charities and organisations, such as the Scottish Ski Club, Edinburgh Zoo, the National Trust for Scotland, the National Parks Campaign, forums on flooding and hydrology and geodiversity, and most recently the campaign to retain Earth sciences in the Scottish curriculum.

This Society of members, academics, explorers, business leaders, scientists, thinkers and educators has inspired generations of people in all walks of life. And it has awarded around 250 medals to, and run over 4,500 public talks by, many inspiring people with the most incredible stories to tell.

The RSGS’s Fellows and Medallists have traversed every continent, climbed every major mountain and range, navigated every ocean, and crossed every desert. They have followed rivers from source to sea, and walked, run, cycled, rowed and sailed around the world. They have re-enacted epic boat journeys, protected wild animals and wild landscapes around the world, and discovered medical cures and archaeological remains.

On 21st July 1884, aged just 24, John George Bartholomew, a map-maker from Edinburgh, was walking on the beach in North Berwick with David Livingstone’s daughter Agnes Bruce, and persuaded her of the need for a Scottish Geographical Society. They, together with James Geikie, Professor of Geology at Edinburgh University, founded the Society, holding the first meeting on 28th October 1884, and the first public talk on 4th December. The rest, as they say, is history.

The RSGS quickly established local groups in Edinburgh, Glasgow and Dundee, so each of these is also enjoying its 130th anniversary. The Aberdeen group was first convened in early 1915, so I hope we find the time to mark these occasions during this winter’s talks season. Today the Society, headquartered in Perth, still runs nearly 100 talks a year all over Scotland, with the latest generation of inspiring scientists, explorers, adventurers and educationalists. It works with Scottish schools, runs a visitor and education centre, and houses one of the most fascinating collections of maps, books and other artefacts. Its core remit remains to inspire people to want to know more about their world. If the next 130 years can be as productive as the last, this really should be achievable.

Ordering is easy. Email or phone today!

Simply contact us on enquiries@rsgs.org or 01738 455050.

Please order by 30th November if possible.

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Flood Risk Management

I visited Leptis Magna the other day. I didn’t really know how many Roman sites there are in Libya! Apparently it is the largest Roman site outside of Italy. Anyway we had it to ourselves basically.....the potential for tourism in this country is massive.

Effective Flood Risk Management: issues and concerns Edmund C Penning-Rowsell, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University

“Flood awareness remains a weak spot with the public, not least because of denial related to individuals and their properties.”

© Fergus Thom

A number of key themes continue to resonate concerning flood risk management in Great Britain and elsewhere. Many of these relate to uncertainties about the future and the appropriate response to current and future levels of risk.

Current levels of risk certainly remain uncertain, with evidence of exaggeration in the Environment Agency assessments. The models to generate national assessments of risk appear to be unstable, leading to doubts about the results. Future risk is dominated by concerns about sea level rise, and the extent of increases in fluvial flood flows. The former appears to be unambiguously serious, in that global sea levels rose some 16cm in the last century, and continue to rise. Many rivers in the UK do not yet show a signal of climate change inducing increased flood flows or severities, but there is at least some evidence that summer thunderstorm events inducing surface water flooding are on the increase.

One significant advance over the last decade, however, has been the accuracy and extent of flood mapping, now covering the whole country. This should alert those who live in areas at risk of flooding to the hazards that they face, although such warnings are not always translated into action by those who are vulnerable. The Adaptation Sub-Committee has

been concerned at the continued development in floodplains locations, although most of this concern now revolves around minor developments which would have limited impact on flood risk.

As always, there is a debate between advocates of structural versus non-structural flood risk management measures, with the latter gaining ground recently at the expense of the former as a more balanced portfolio approach to risk reduction has been adopted.

Nevertheless, this does conceal some weaknesses in the nonstructural approaches, including the frailty of warning systems as far as number of members of the public are concerned. As far as engineering measures are concerned, the budget for such measures has been criticised as being inadequate to deal with current levels of risk, let alone increased risk in the future, as government-induced ‘austerity’ measures have hit all public expenditure.

Governance issues are a recent interest. The EU Floods Directive encourages those who manage river catchments to concentrate only on flooding as a key issue, whereas the management of floods and flood risk reduction should be undertaken in parallel and integrated with other water management measures, such as navigation, pollution control, water resources development, and nature conservation. Indeed, flood risk management should be seen as linked inextricably to the management of the use of land, and this means that the development of floodplain areas should not be embargoed; rather such development should be in balance with the frequency of flooding, the costs of its mitigation, and the value of the lands protected to society.

The approach adopted in Scotland towards ‘natural’ flood risk management measures is as yet relatively untested, and the public has to recognise that such measures generally are only effective for small-scale floods in minor catchments, rather than major floods affecting our major rivers. Such concepts as ‘Room for the River’ have attractive connotations, but in a relatively crowded island such as Great Britain the potential for such approaches is strictly limited.

There is not much room for the river in such metropolitan areas as Glasgow, Manchester and London.

This brings us to the funding of flood risk management measures.

Recently, in many countries, there has been a move away from central funding of flood risk reduction infrastructure, in favour of costsharing between local, regional and national sources. In England, this has taken the form of ‘Partnership Funding’, whereby local communities are asked to make contributions towards the capital costs of schemes. In theory, this should encourage local engagement with the issue, although problems will occur in areas where local economies are weak, and such contributions cannot be forthcoming. There is a danger, here, that flood risk management investment is dominated by affluent areas, at the expense of a truly national strategy.

Internationally, there continues to be considerable debate about design standards for flood risk management measures. In countries such as The Netherlands, fixed design standards are the norm (eg, dikes at a level of the 1:10,000 year flood), based primarily on safety standards rather than worthwhileness. In Britain, in contrast, a benefit-cost approach is adopted, whereby the design standard of flood risk management measures is based on the extent to which they generate benefits in relation to their cost.

Finally, the public worldwide expects a much more efficient approach to the management of flooding incidents, despite record rainfall events such as in the Somerset Levels in winter 201314, and a professional recognition that flooding cannot be eliminated but has to be managed. Flood awareness remains a weak spot with the public, not least because of denial related to individuals and their properties. These may be at risk, but this is often not recognised, or recognition is refused.

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Complexity and pragmatism in flood risk management

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Andrew Black, University of Dundee

Colin Thorne et al (2007) suggest that “rural land management as a response to flood risk can become a classic example of a ‘wicked’ problem”. The authors go on to draw on a definition offered

by Richards (1998) that “these are problems that fall between policy responsibilities because they are commonly problematic or beneficial across many of the institutions that are responsible for delivering them”.

There is much in flood studies and management to appeal to the geographer. There is great interplay between physical and human dimensions in the environment, from soils, geology and climate to settlement patterns, social characteristics of at-risk communities, and government policy. The uniqueness of place counts: whether a catchment is upland, lowland, urban or rural, it provides a unique context for the interaction between relevant floodcontrolling factors. Catchment size and the relative locations of run-off sources, storages and receptors will control the possibilities for solutions, not least in relation to finances. And, in Scotland certainly, geographers have established a tradition of applying a holistic perspective to the study of flood events (eg, the RSGS flood forum of the 1950s onwards) and the future management of risks.

Dealing with the complexity of catchment systems certainly provides ample challenge in hydrological forecasting. For all the investment in monitoring and modelling capabilities, local factors such as trees stuck in culverts, subtle variations in temperatures affecting the mix of rain and snow, or local interactions between topography and weather all mean that human experience and expertise have a vital role to play in assessing flood risks at the local scale.

Those complexities can fade into insignificance when considering some of the human and perceptual dimensions to flood risk management. Flood risk reflects not only the probability of an event occurring but also its consequences. It tends to be difficult to eliminate entirely, and so much public policy has to address the question of reducing risk to acceptable levels, even if a

general definition of ‘acceptable’ is hard to find. Scottish planning policy requires development to avoid areas at a risk of flooding with a greater probability than once in 200 years on average. But, by their nature, extreme floods with such low probability are difficult to estimate.

Even so, the use of the 1:200 threshold is a good way of ensuring that new development is not subject to any flooding other than truly exceptional events. Given that the median length of occupancy of a property in the UK is around eight years, the chances of being flooded by such an extreme event at any time during one resident’s occupancy are only 4%, and even in a 40-year occupancy are only 18%.

Where at-risk properties are dispersed, investing in structural defences will be difficult. Natural flood management (NFM) has been introduced into national policy as a means of opening up a new suite of flood alleviation methods which deliver multiple benefits such as habitat restoration, water quality improvements and local amenity benefits, and have met with widespread approval.

Scientists have to date found it difficult to detect the effects of these changes at a catchment scale. The Eddleston project in the Scottish Borders represents a concerted effort to deliver multiple NFM measures within a catchment of some 70km2, and already local opinion is that recent flood spates have been significantly attenuated by re-meandering and widespread planting of trees within the last three years. A project such as this ticks many boxes: it addresses local flooding concerns and delivers many environmental gains without incurring excessive cost. But it is very much dependent on the involvement of local landowners and – in practice – equally dependent on the success of local delivery partners such as the Tweed Forum to identify solutions which work for all parties.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, there are communities where tension exists between those at risk of flooding and those who seek to deliver solutions. Two notable features of flood experience are the length of time for a solution to be delivered after a major flood (eight years for Perth, 15 for

Elgin) and, in recent years, the prominent role for local activism in contributing to solutions. The internet now has a critical role in facilitating community action, allowing access to previously inaccessible expert information, and allowing communities to exert more influence on the decisionmaking process than ever before.

Finances, the appropriate use of local knowledge, and the choice of solutions are just some of the issues which dominate the interests of local flood action groups.

While the interactions between flood-causing and impactexacerbating factors can be numerous and difficult to model exactly, there are many ways to reduce risks. Flood risk managers have never had so many options at their disposal, for use singly or in combination. With continually increasing pressures on land and the rising threats arising from climate change, the need for pragmatism in deploying those options has never been so great.

Across Europe, the establishment of multi-stakeholder local flood management groups provides an excellent means of delivering solutions focused on local needs.

“Flood risk managers have never had so many options at their disposal, for use singly or in combination.“

Background image: © Fergus Thom

Flood Management Approaches

Learning to live with floods Professor Alan Werrity FRSGS, University of Dundee

Scarcely a month goes by without “The severe flooding appearing in the traditional news media, usually from abroad increasingly from within the approach for but UK. And there is much debate as to whether this increase in protecting flooding is caused by climate people and change. Whilst it is generally places from agreed that no specific flood can be attributed to climate change, flooding a warmer world stores more moisture in the atmosphere and is to build triggers more severe storms that engineered in turn generate more floods.

In recent years, Scotland has structures been spared long-lasting, such as walls regionally extensive floods as reported in Somerset and and emthe middle Thames valley in bankments.” January 2014. However, severe and sometimes repeated localised flooding has recently occurred in Stonehaven, Comrie and Elgin, and other Scottish towns and, given climate change, this is likely to occur more often.

The traditional approach for protecting people and places from flooding is to build engineered structures such as walls and embankments.

However, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency’s (SEPA) National Flood Risk Assessment in 2011 reported that only around 10,000 of the 125,000 properties currently at risk are protected by such flood protection schemes. Although new schemes are being built to protect properties in very high risk areas such as Elgin, it is clear that public funding will not be available to provide that level of protection universally – not least because, given climate change, the number of properties at risk is set to increase substantially.

This likelihood of increased flooding in the future, especially that produced by intense localised storms that overwhelm existing urban storm water drains and sewers, has triggered a radical new approach to

managing flood risk in Scotland, the rest of the UK, and across the world. This generally goes under the title of ‘sustainable flood risk management’ and involves a mixture of actions which include traditional engineered structures alongside innovative solutions such as flood warnings, land use planning, river and catchment restoration, raising awareness, property level protection, and insurance. Underpinning many of these non-engineered actions is an explicit shift from solutions provided for and paid for by the state to actions initiated and owned by individuals and communities at risk.

There are many challenges in delivering effective nonengineered solutions for flooding, some of which are explored in more detail elsewhere in this issue. Here I note some of the key issues currently being addressed in Scotland.

Natural flood management This involves using natural processes in the catchment to reduce run-off and slow down the flow. It includes planting woodlands, blocking drains in peatlands, restoring wetlands, re-connecting river channels with their floodplains, and re-meandering straightened channels. Whilst potentially effective for relatively frequent, low-impact floods, these measures are unlikely to provide much protection from rare catastrophic floods.

Effective warnings Many of the non-engineered solutions depend on accurate and timely flood warnings to be really effective. Over recent years this has significantly improved in Scotland via the joint SEPA/ Met Office Flood Forecasting Service. Most of Scotland’s major rivers and some key coastal communities now get at least three hours’ notice of a flood.

But a major challenge remains for urban areas where warnings for surface water flooding from intense, highly localised storms have yet to be developed.

Property level protection (PLP) Given adequate warning, measures to stop the water getting into a property (door guards, air brick covers, return valves in lavatories) can provide protection up to 0.6m of water for individual properties. Many local authorities in Scotland are currently either promoting the take up of PLP or actively exploring this option. When combined with resilience measures after a flood (laying concrete floors, moving electrical sockets up the wall, mounting kitchen appliances above floor level), losses can be significantly reduced in a subsequent flood.

Insurance Whilst flood insurance continues to be widely available, some insurers are withdrawing cover in high flood risk areas, raising issues of social justice. It is hoped that a new UK Government initiative called Flood Re will cap and subsidise premiums for insurance for the most vulnerable members of society in high flood risk areas.

Community flood groups The Scottish Flood Forum supports self-help groups across Scotland to promote the use of PLP measures, and locally trains flood wardens to assist in disseminating warnings and assisting the most vulnerable.

Spatial planning Prohibiting or severely restricting development in high flood risk areas is being achieved via the Scottish planning system. In operation since 2007, this has had considerable success. But it cannot address the historical legacy of earlier development in high flood risk areas where reliance on some of the other measures noted above will continue to be needed.

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Soft Engineering Fred Pearce FRSGS

There are three kinds of floods: floods when rain ponds up where it falls on the land; floods that come down rivers and overflow; and floods that come ashore from the sea during storms or high tides. Conventionally, we prevent them all by installing land drains, raising river embankments, or constructing sea walls. But a rethink is going on.

Maybe it matters more how we use the land, and in particular how we can protect and enhance nature’s own flood defences. In a time of climate change and rising sea levels, some say the resilience offered by nature may be the only way to stay dry.

The Dutch know this. After centuries of engineering to keep out the North Sea and constrain the River Rhine, they are tearing down sea walls, setting back dykes and re-flooding polders.

The argument, especially after massive floods there in the 1990s, is that confronting nature has failed. Nature always finds the weakest point. And, if constrained and channelled by concrete, its destructive power is increased. The call now is to find ways of giving rivers back their natural floodplains.

We are learning much the same in Britain, where thousands of householders discovered last winter that their homes are built on floodplains. And when the rains are intense, the rivers will have their way.

There are two approaches to river floods: ‘fast water’ and ‘slow water’. The fast water approach is all about engineering rivers to rush their waters to the sea. It widens and deepens, straightens and dredges rivers. Calls to dredge the rivers of the flooded Somerset Levels to prevent a repetition of last winter’s floods there are typical.

The slow water approach, by contrast, holds water back, as far upstream as possible, for gradual release later. It means restoring river floodplains, and plugging field drains and planting trees in the hills. The problem on the Somerset Levels is that land users have contrived the worst possible solution: digging deep drains to rush water out of the hills, while slowing flow on the lowlands for wetland conservation.

On coasts, the concrete-pouring school of ‘hard engineering’ is also giving way to more natural ways of preventing floods.

Vertical sea walls, it turns out, are often less good at rebuffing storm tides than sand dunes or salt marshes, which absorb their energy. Yet too often dunes are still being built on, and salt marshes drained.

In the tropics, coastal mangrove swamps are disappearing at the rate of 1% a year, despite their known ability to absorb the energy of storms, dissipate tidal waves and capture silt.

When 10,000 people died during a tropical cyclone that hit the India state of Odisha in 1999, death rates in coastal villages were closely linked to the width of coastal mangroves. As Nottingham University’s coastal geographer Colin Thorne put it, “The best hurricane protection is three kilometres of mangroves.”

This tragedy is being played out on the densely populated delta of the rivers Ganges and Brahmaputra in southern Bangladesh. Everywhere, mangroves are being uprooted to make way for prawn farms.

Meanwhile, the government is spending foreign aid to build thousands of kilometres of earth embankments to keep out the storms and rising tides. This is a bad swap.

Coastal geomorphologist John Pethick, formerly of Newcastle University, has found that the embankments are preventing tidal waters from reaching their normal flooding areas on the delta. In so doing, the banks are constricting tidal flows and amplifying the tidal range in the delta’s giant estuaries.

Though average sea levels in the Bay of Bengal are rising by only 3mm a year, the highest tides are rising by 18mm a year in Khulna, Bangladesh’s thirdlargest city 125km inland. A tenth of this city of two million people is flooded ten times a year. The alarming truth is that in southern Bangladesh, where 30 million people live at daily risk of drowning, man-made defences are making floods worse.

“Vertical sea walls, it turns out, are often less good at rebuffing storm tides than sand dunes or salt marshes, which absorb their energy.”

Ensuring and Insuring Against Floods

The Global Change

in Approaches to Managing Flood Risk Fola Ogunyoye, Technical Director, Royal HaskoningDHV

“As a result, there was a global shift in approach to managing floods from defence to risk management.”

Royal HaskoningDHV is an independent, international engineering and project management consultancy with more than 130 years of experience in aviation, buildings, energy, industry, infrastructure, maritime, mining, rural and urban areas, and water. See royalhaskoningdhv. com for more information.

All the examples in this article are from projects in which Royal HaskoningDHV has been involved globally.

Tyock Embankment set-back and floodplain lowering, Elgin.

Flooding causes massive damages worldwide and is often described as the most damaging natural hazard. In 2013, flood represented 35% of all global economic losses during the year, with nearly 8,000 deaths caused by Super-Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines alone. In the UK’s 2013-14 winter floods, the Association of British Insurers reported over £450m in flooding claims from 9,000 properties.

Further pressures such as climate change impacts and development continue to threaten to increase the risk of flooding into the future.

Over the past decade, there has been an increased recognition that flooding is very complex, and that measures to manage it interact with various other functions such as the built and natural environment, communities and the economy.

It became clear that we could no longer persist with trying to defend ourselves out of everincreasing extremes. Smarter solutions that work more with the environment and communities, and deliver multiple benefits, were needed. As a result, there was a global shift in approach to managing floods from defence to risk management. This change was underpinned by major national strategies such as ‘Room for the River’ in the Netherlands and ‘Making Space for Water’ in England. Through the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009, the Scottish Government introduced a more sustainable approach to flood risk management.

The shift from flood defence to risk management has meant a focus on a broader portfolio of approaches for managing flood risk.

These include (1) better links to spatial planning to ensure creation of water sensitive communities; (2) increased focus on sustainability and working with natural processes; (3) strategic

management of catchment systems from the source to the sea; (4) improved forecasting, warning and response; (5) improved resilience of flood pathways, defences and communities to extreme events.

Global examples of some of these approaches are illustrated below.

Room for the River This programme broke with the traditional Dutch reliance on dikes. Instead it is increasing river conveyance by opening up more room for the rivers to flow through, and in the process enhancing spatial quality. Examples of measures being delivered include groyne lowering on the Waal to improve conveyance of high flows; dike set-back and bypass schemes integrated with spatial development to remove bottlenecks in the river at Nijmegen and Kampen; water retention providing 200 million cubic metres of storage; and reconnection of 4,450 hectares of a previously reclaimed large polder, the Noordward to the river.

Piekenhoef, Netherlands – water sensitive development The Piekenhoef housing estate in the Netherlands ensured a water sensitive design that achieved a multi-use sustainable community that integrated surface water drainage, aquifer recharge, habitat creation and quality of life benefits with housing development. The water sensitive design was developed around the construction of five swales and ponds that run through the residential area.

and enlargement of bridges; setting back flood defences to create more space for water; and creating many on-line flood storage and detention areas, and integrating these with local amenity and other community uses.

New Orleans – incorporating resilience into flood defences A fundamental part of sustainable management of flood risk is the development of management measures and solutions that ensure flood risk is managed effectively during extreme events. Improvements to the hurricane protection system following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 included an element for resilience, ensuring that the design allows for the levees to overtop safely for much higher events than the design loading through crest and slope reinforcement.

In my 25 years in the water and flood risk industry, I am yet to see a more exciting time.

It’s great to see how we are learning from the past and boldly delivering flood risk management that not only fits into, but also enhances, communities and the environment. In the face of increasing threats of climate change, this evolution of approaches needs to continue.

Elgin Flood Alleviation Scheme – making space for water This ongoing scheme is based on the principle of strategically managing water by understanding and working with the catchment. Here the concept of ‘retain-store-drain-adaptdefend’ was used. The scheme involved identifying and removing constrictions within the system, including relocation of buildings

Flood management and nature in harmony at Piekenhoef housing estate.

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The provision of flood insurance: an incentive to reduce risk?

Swenja Surminski, The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics Across the world, floods are affecting on average about 70 million people each year as estimated by the United Nations.

In Europe alone, over the period of 2000-12, average annual flood losses totalled €4.2 billion. Recent loss trends are rising, largely due to socio-economic factors such as more people living in harm’s way, while climate change is also expected to exacerbate the impacts of flooding, as highlighted by the recent reports from the International Panel on Climate Change.

For those tasked with managing flood risk, this raises important distributional questions: where and what to protect, how to fund these efforts, and how to compensate those suffering losses. Faced with tight budgetary constraints, governments are increasingly interested in moving flood risk management from the public balance sheets. Finding a private sector partner is one option – but it does not come without challenges.

The case of flood insurance illustrates this very clearly, in the UK and elsewhere.

How to respond to growing flood losses?

Rising risk levels pose a threat to the insurability of floods. Keeping premiums affordable while pay-outs grow is difficult, and may lead to decreasing commercial viability for private sector companies, or ever higher public liabilities. This can be seen in the US, where the National Flood Insurance Program has been identified as one of the highest financial risks for the US Government. In response, reform efforts are under way in many countries. However, designing and implementing flood insurance is not an easy task. The wish-list from stakeholders is long: cover should be affordable and available to all; the system fair and just, not distorting the private market, light on the public purse, and offering value for money.

Is this possible while the risks are rising? Finding sustainable longterm solutions will depend on how well flood insurance supports risk reduction and prevention efforts. At the very least, insurance should not lead to more risky behaviour, such as building on floodplains. This can

also go further, using insurance to improve the understanding of risk through better risk assessment and data sharing, and encourage shared and individual risk reduction efforts.

Insurance as a driver of flood risk management?

Over recent years, examples of how insurance and flood risk management can be linked have emerged, such as in the US, where communities receive a financial incentive to implement flood risk management plans and to enforce building codes, or in France, where insurers and government have collaborated for many years in order to improve the planning system. Another example is the HORA risk information initiative from the Austrian government and the insurance industry, who co-operate to deliver a publicly accessible online risk assessment tool. In Scotland, insurers were involved in the Flood Liaison and Advice Groups (FLAGs), while under the Statement of Principles flood insurance provision in the UK was based on commitment from government to invest in flood defences, share risk information, and improve the planning system to minimise flood risk.

The core idea behind those initiatives is that purchasing an insurance risk transfer product can influence the behaviour of those at risk and of those who influence flood risk through their decisions, while insurers can offer risk information and know-how to improve flood risk management.

How this can work in practice is not always clear: measuring success of existing initiatives remains difficult, and they do not necessarily present the best-practice case.

Some insurers are engaged, others less so. Technical knowhow, funding, data and political will are all important to make this work. Indeed there remain many barriers and issues that need to be addressed.

Far too often there’s a disconnect between well-informed, long-term strategies and short-term policy decisions. Take the example of the National Adaptation Programme, launched in the UK by Defra last summer. It outlines the expected risks posed to England by climate

change and highlights the action needed in response, with flood risk management identified as the key priority. Only a few days before publishing the plan, Defra had introduced the new flood insurance proposal meant to secure insurance for the next 20 years: a pooled approach, termed Flood Re, run by the private sector to provide cover for those at highest risk at an affordable, capped price. While Flood Re is offering an innovative response to the concerns about today’s affordability and availability of flood insurance, astonishingly, the proposal was without any reference to changing flood risks as a result of climate change and did not include any clear incentives to do more on flood risk management: not for home-owners or insurers, nor for government. This is a missed opportunity to put sensible longterm risk management in response to climate change at the heart of policy making. Our research has identified ways to address this. As Defra and the insurance industry are still negotiating the operational details for Flood Re, there remains a chance to amend the existing proposal and to ensure that Flood Re does play a forward-looking role in reducing flood risk.

This article relates to the work of the author as part of the research project ENHANCE (Enhancing risk management partnerships for catastrophic natural disasters in Europe), funded by the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme.

Further Reading

Surminski S, Eldridge J (2014, in press), Flood insurance in England - an assessment of the current and newly proposed insurance scheme in the context of rising flood risk (Journal of Flood Risk Management, www.cccep.ac.uk/ Publications/Working-papers/Abstracts/160-169/Floodinsurance-in-England.aspx)

Integrated flood risk management, nature and spatial development at Nijmegen, Netherlands.

Mapping and Minimising Risks

2020VISION: Big Ideas to Rebuild Our Natural Home Peter Cairns

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Flood Risk Management in Scotland in Scotland Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) Flood Risk Planning Team There are many areas in Scotland at risk from flooding, with approximately one in 22 residential properties and one in 13 business properties at risk. Although flooding is predominantly a natural event, it becomes a problem when it has an impact on people.

The average annual damage to homes, businesses and agriculture from flooding is estimated to be £720-£850 million. In addition to the personal distress and health impacts of flooding, this represents a significant impact on the Scottish economy.

Flooding cannot be prevented entirely; however, it is possible to influence how often floods occur and to reduce the damage they cause. To address this, the Scottish Government introduced the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009, creating the framework for a co-ordinated and sustainable approach to flood risk management. To identify areas most vulnerable to flooding, the National Flood Risk Assessment (NFRA) was published by SEPA in December 2011. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the sources and impacts of flooding in Scotland; for the first time, a national picture of flood risk is

available.

The NFRA identifies 243 Potentially Vulnerable Areas where the impacts of flooding are sufficient to justify further assessment and appraisal of flood management actions.

The areas consider coastal, river, ground water and surface water flooding, and 92% of properties at risk of flooding in Scotland are captured. This information enables resources to be prioritised and effectively targeted in areas where the benefit of intervention is greatest.

For the purposes of Flood Risk Management Planning, Scotland has been organised into 14 Local Plan Districts based on river catchments and local authority boundaries. The lead local authority in each Local Plan District will produce Local Flood Risk Management Plans, incorporating current local flood risk activities, and providing a comprehensive summary of actions to manage flood risk.

Through consultation and engagement, SEPA has developed a Flood Risk Management Planning process that balances national consistency with local knowledge.

The process is based on delivery through partnership working and

advisory groups, making the most effective and efficient use of shared resources.

Local Plan District Partnerships provide a valuable forum for local authorities, SEPA and Scottish Water to share knowledge and expertise. Local Advisory Groups have been established to provide advice to SEPA. As knowledge of flood risk in Scotland increases, SEPA will use the new information and data generated to provide advice and guidance to local authorities on development plans and planning applications.

The duties on public bodies to reduce overall flood risk, raise awareness, provide flood warnings where appropriate, carry out maintenance, and provide advice to planning authorities apply throughout Scotland. The overall approach to SEPA’s Flood Risk Management planning process has been designed to be inclusive, and will provide a framework from which the public can take responsibility for protecting themselves and their property from flooding, assisted by relevant public bodies.

See www.sepa.org. uk/flooding/flood_ risk_management. aspx for more information on flood risk management.

“It is possible to influence how often floods occur and to reduce the damage they cause.”

Surface Water Flood Forecasting Linda Speight, SEPA With thousands of athletes and around one million spectators in Glasgow for the 2014 Commonwealth Games, organisers and a host of Scottish and UK government emergency responders put enormous effort into resilience planning to help Glasgow 2014 go smoothly, and that included SEPA’s Flood Unit. Given the number of people in Glasgow for the Games, even minor flooding would have caused disruption to the city, so it seemed the right place to focus on when developing a surface water flood forecasting project.

Surface water flooding is caused by convective rainfall which is heavy, intense and usually shortlived. Forecasting this type of event is a challenging area of hydrometeorology due to the difficulties in predicting exactly where the heaviest rain is likely to fall. Although it is possible to say ‘a band of heavy thunderstorms is expected across the central belt this afternoon’, in reality some areas will see heavy rainfall and others will remain dry and sunny all day.

For this reason, the best approach

Glasgow flooding in 2002. © GCC

is to use a probabilistic forecast, which means running a series of equally likely rainfall scenarios, known as an ensemble. If several of the scenarios have heavy rain in the same place, then there is a higher probability of flooding in this area.

Another way in which the area of concern can be narrowed down is by looking at what types of places (receptors) are at risk of flooding.

For example, in rural areas, although there may be heavy rain, there is unlikely to be widespread disruption. However, if the rain falls over a densely populated urban area, then the risk of disruption to transport networks, properties and people will be more significant.

The model combines recent advances in the science of forecasting convective rainfall events in the Met Office blended ensemble and Nowcast ensemble, with SEPA’s new pluvial flood risk maps. The Centre for Ecology and Hydrology grid-to-grid model is used to convert the forecast rainfall from each ensemble member into surface runoff. This is then used to link the event to SEPA’s library of

impact assessments to give a fully risk-based forecast.

During the Commonwealth Games, the model ran eight times a day to provide a bespoke surface water flood risk forecast, the first in the UK with a 24-hour lead time. The weather during the Games was largely fine. However, there were occasions when the additional surface water guidance provided a real benefit to the organisers and responders. Firstly, enabling the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service to advise that, although heavy rainfall was forecast in the wider West Central Scotland region, flooding impacts in Glasgow itself were unlikely. Secondly, as on the last weekend, to provide information on the timing, likely impacts and probability of possible flooding.

Improving capabilities for surface water flood forecasting is one of the core strategic aims of SEPA’s Flood Warning Strategy for 201216, and the experience of using the new forecasting tool this summer will help improve surface water forecasting for other areas of Scotland in the future.

“Given the number of people in Glasgow for the Games, even minor flooding would have caused disruption.”

Forecasting and Forewarning

Severe Weather and Floods in Scotland Alan Motion, Met Office

“For instance, in Scotland a number of landslide incidents are related to heavy rainfall events.”

The Met Office is the United Kingdom’s National Weather Service, a role that requires a surprisingly wide capability, including observing, collating and storing data, the application of meteorological science, climate science, producing weather forecasts, and severe weather warnings. Underpinning this capability is a High Performance Computing function that is ranked within the top three in the world. This range of expertise enables the Met Office to deliver valuable advice and services for our partners and customers in UK Government and the Devolved Administrations. In the world of commerce, Met Office weather and climate services deliver benefits to customers in many areas of business; for example, utilities, transport, renewables and global offshore oil and gas production.

Governments and commerce.

In Scotland there are more than one hundred Met Office staff, from the observatories at Eskdalemuir and Lerwick, to offices at Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Linwood and a number of defence sites.

Across UK Government, there is also a Natural Hazards Partnership, designed to bring together departments and agencies with relevant knowledge and expertise, working in partnership to make the UK better informed and better prepared to deal with natural hazards. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and the Scottish Government are represented within the Partnership.

Over the past decade, severe weather has brought very significant impacts in many areas of the UK. The weather has both direct and indirect impacts on people and property.

A torrential downpour will often result in a direct impact from localised flooding. The same type of weather event can also bring impacts from other natural hazards. For instance, in Scotland a number of landslide incidents are related to heavy rainfall events. In recent years it is the impact of a weather event on a range of receptors which has become a primary feature of warning and informing the public, emergency responders,

The importance of considering the potential impact of a weather event, together with the likelihood of the weather event occurring, changed the approach to how the need for a warning of severe weather is assessed and communicated by the National Severe Weather Warning Service.

Since the introduction of this change in April 2011, many of us are now familiar with the yellow or amber warnings of severe weather, equating to ‘Be Aware’ and ‘Be Prepared’ respectively.

The highest category of warning is red, meaning ‘Take Action’.

Taking this approach supports greater flexibility; factors such as the capacity of river systems to cope with rainfall run-off or major events such as the Commonwealth Games influence what the potential impact of, for example, a rainfall event may be.

Obviously rainfall, be it short sharp local downpours or more prolonged events, can lead to flooding, either directly as can be the case with heavy downpours, or indirectly from impact on river levels. The current UK Climate Predictions indicate changes in rainfall intensity and distribution across the UK. Many areas have experienced significant impacts from flooding in recent times: in Scotland, Morayshire,

the Borders, and Dumfries & Galloway; and further afield, the south-west of England.

The Met Office is working continuously to further develop its precipitation forecasting.

Investment in more powerful supercomputing capacity has enabled the development of high-resolution numerical models. Our weather science programme includes research and development in precipitation forecasting. One important outcome of this investment is an improvement within weather forecast models to resolve smaller-scale physical processes, supporting improved precipitation forecasting in time and space. Additionally, ongoing developments in science and numerical models are enabling wider use of probabilistic techniques.

Since 2011 the Met Office and SEPA have worked together to operate the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service (SFFS). Bringing together the meteorological expertise of Met Office forecasters with SEPA’s hydrological and flood forecasting capability, SFFS provides valuable guidance for emergency responders and Scottish Government regarding flood risk across Scotland up to five days ahead. SFFS also exploits the related sciences to support development of outputs. A recent example of this is a surface water flooding model trialled during the Commonwealth Games.

Flooding and other natural hazards will continue to impact our daily lives. The capability highlighted, together with future research and development within the Met Office and in partnership, will continue to help protect people and property.

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Forewarned is Forearmed Philip Wright, Scottish Flood Forum

“Community support will be required to implement many adaptation activities and there must be a general awareness of why it is so important that Scotland prepares for a changing climate and what the costs of inaction may be.”

Climate Ready Scotland, Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme, May 2014

Developing the resilience of communities and individuals to the projected increase in the frequency of flooding is a key element towards enhancing Scotland’s resilience to the impacts of climate change.

This, combined with supporting communities recovering from an actual flood incident, is the raison d’être of the Scottish Flood Forum (SFF), a charitable organisation established in April 2013 and supported by the Scottish Government.

The Forum aims to improve understanding and awareness of the risks and effects of flooding to communities throughout Scotland, and to provide them with effective support.

Scotland’s approach to flooding has changed significantly over the past 20 years, from an essentially reactive response to a flood event to an increasingly proactive one based on an assessment of flood risk. This change was influenced greatly by the significant number of flood events through the 1990s and into the new millennium, combined with improved methodologies to assess flood risk. The projected increase in frequency of flooding

as a consequence of climate change has been an additional spur. The Climate Change Risk Assessment for Scotland indicates an increase of at least 40% by the 2050s in the number of residential properties at significant risk of flooding, from the present number of around 45,000-50,000.

While government funding for flood management measures has increased some 50-fold over the 20-year period, supporting a significant increase in SEPA’s and local authorities’ flood risk management capacity, the challenge of addressing flood risk remains substantial. The Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009 has reinforced the Government’s proactive approach by placing major new duties on both SEPA and local authorities.

But, no matter the resources invested or the legislative changes, flooding will still happen: people’s homes will continue to be inundated and lives disrupted.

While interest, by the media and the public more generally, peters out quickly after a flood has abated and the emergency response is over, those flooded will continue to be traumatised by the experience and the impacts on their lives. As a civil servant who developed and implemented national flood risk management and climate change policy in the Scottish Government, I was only too conscious of such circumstances. Now, as Chair of the SFF, I am closer to the reality of the physical and emotional impacts of flooding on people’s lives, and appreciate the valuable contribution that individuals and communities at flood risk can make to enhance their resilience to the risk of flooding.

The SFF provides a range of support to help communities recover from a flood. We are also proactive in helping communities develop their resilience to future

flooding – more readily achievable in recently flooded communities than those at flood risk but which haven’t flooded in ‘living memory’. We look to realise the potential within communities through the provision of flood risk information and education, offering advice on: setting up community flood resilience groups (now some 60 across Scotland); property-level protection (including undertaking property surveys); cleaning up and recovering after a flood; insurance claims; and dealing with the stress caused by flooding.

See scottishfloodforum. org for more information on the SFF’s work.

Through our work we aim to: leave a legacy so that any community or organisation at flood risk is better prepared for future flood events when we leave than when we arrived; after a flood, seek to leave individuals, communities and organisations feeling they have benefitted from our support; share our experience, knowledge and knowhow both formally and informally; and act independently and with integrity so our advice can be trusted.

Supporting communities and individuals in this way, forewarning them of the risks they face, will go a considerable way to communities and individuals forearming themselves against future flooding and thereby strengthening, incrementally, Scotland’s resilience to the impacts of climate change. This response to the help provided by the SFF after last year’s flooding suggests we’re getting something right: “We immediately knew to trust what was being said, and that is vital when one is facing totally unknown and scary circumstances. It is absolutely vital that more community resilience is built up over the years. It is a unique service.”

“We immediately knew to trust what was being said, and that is vital when one is facing totally unknown and scary circumstances.”

Community Engagement

Moray Flood Alleviation Schemes Dave Gowans, Moray Council

“Despite a low annual rainfall, a steeply sloping hinterland from a lowlying coastal plain and a quirky microclimate mean that Moray has a long history of flooding.”

On 11 August 2014, the tail end of Hurricane Bertha visited Moray – briefly. Rainfall was both extreme and intense. It led to widespread flooding across the area, from surface water and rivers and burns.

Three major flood alleviation schemes were operational and two more were under construction.

No protected properties flooded.

Moray lies in the rain shadow of the Cairngorms and the Monadhliath Mountains for the prevailing southwesterly wind. Despite a low annual rainfall, a steeply sloping hinterland from a low-lying coastal plain and a quirky microclimate mean that Moray has a long history of flooding.

Prior to July 1997, there had been few significant flood events recorded in Moray in the previous 56 years, the most significant being on the River Findhorn in 1970. Flooding had fallen from local consciousness, and indeed floodplains had continued to be developed. The event of July 1997 came as a rude awakening. Neither agencies nor property owners were prepared and damages were substantial. Politicians reacted.

Flooding had been extensive, affecting Elgin (River Lossie), Forres (Burn of Mosset), and the village of Lhanbryde, just east of Elgin (from its local burn).

After initial studies, the Council set about a radical approach to addressing flooding, forming an integrated team with consultants Royal Haskoning DHV, contractor Morrison Construction, and cost consultants EC Harris, led by the Council’s team and co-located in Elgin.

November 2002 saw another massive flood in Elgin, with the small town of Rothes also badly affected. Ultimately five schemes were progressed with a current estimate of investment of £170 million altogether.

The team took each scheme through option appraisal, statutory processes (including public inquiries), design and construction - consultant, contractor and cost consultant working through designs, construction methodologies and cost projections together.

Fast-forward to September 2009. The £21 million Forres (Burn of Mosset) scheme, comprising principally a 2.8 million cubic metre upstream storage reservoir, was formally opened by the Cabinet Secretary, Richard Lochhead MSP. The control structure was incomplete, so when a major event, which Chapelton Dam, part of the Forres (Burn of Mosset) flooded Elgin and Rothes Flood Alleviation Scheme. again, occurred a week floodplain along the river was all later, only remarkable efforts by but complete by 11 August 2014. the site team stemmed the flow The river reached its highest level and save hundreds of homes. That since 1970, with a flow of around same day, the 300,000m3 reservoir 900m3 per second. It would have at Lhanbryde, completed in 2005 overtopped the original banks, at a cost of £2.6 million, saved the causing breaches and a very real village, even though SEPA assessed threat to life and hundreds of this as a 300-year return period properties, had the scheme not event. functioned. Interestingly, this was The Rothes scheme improves three watercourses in and around the Speyside town, that tumble down off the steep hillside carrying relatively high sediment loads. At £22.5 million, delivered well under budget, it protects around 300 homes and several key businesses including two distilleries.

The £86 million Elgin scheme creates space for water through the city, setting back flood banks, removing properties, and recreating floodplain. It is scheduled for completion in Spring 2015, so a serious flooding event in August 2014, with a similar peak to 1997 and 2009, was an unwelcome visitor. The part-complete scheme was made to work, but only just. Two hundred homes were evacuated as a precaution. But none flooded – a major success even before completion. Floodwater almost reached the soffit of Landshut Bridge, the centrepiece of the scheme.

the only Moray scheme that was not developed in reaction to a flood event.

Delivering this programme has been challenging for the team, but the rewards are there to be seen.

On 12 August 2014, people in around 1,000 homes and businesses in Moray carried on with life as usual. One grateful resident commented when thanking the Council, “as far as I am concerned what has been done so far has helped a lot, and I love the bridge, so well done”.

The second Forres scheme, which addresses flooding in the Pilmuir area and from the River Findhorn, budgeted at £45 million, started construction in September 2012.

Thankfully the work to create a widened Landshut Bridge, Elgin.

The

Geographer

16-17

Autumn 2014

Coastal flood warning development in the Moray Firth area Darroch Kaye, Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA)

Background and development SEPA, as the flood warning authority for Scotland, and under the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) 2009 Act, has a responsibility for the development and provision of flood warning schemes. It is tasked with ensuring emergency responders and the public have the best available flood warning information and advice to be able to prepare for and respond to flooding.

In December 2012, SEPA published its Flood Warning Strategy: 2012 to 2016. Within the document, SEPA highlighted new coastal and tidal flood warning schemes for a number of specific ‘at-risk’ communities. The Moray Firth was identified as one of these areas.

The scheme will cover communities from Wick to Fraserburgh and, once completed, it will be the largest flood forecasting project SEPA has ever undertaken. It will cover over 500 miles of coastline, and enable advance notice of flooding to be issued to nearly 10,000 properties through the Floodline service.

Coastal flood forecasting The Moray Firth has a long history of coastal flooding from wave overtopping, surges and high tide, combined with fluvial flooding.

It has been an issue for many towns and communities along the Moray Firth, causing significant damage to harbours, sea defences, properties and infrastructure.

The forecasting model for the Moray Firth flood warning schemes uses the latest advances in coastal modelling to more accurately predict, monitor and warn people about flooding. A suite of models are run in conjunction with each other to produce water level and wave forecasts at 44 locations.

Wave overtopping forecasts will be calculated at 14 locations, with the remaining 30 locations displaying wave height to inform of the conditions at each location. The system utilises SEPA and United Kingdom Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting service (UKCMF) tidal gauges, as well as the Moray Firth wave buoy for calibration of the models.

The Moray Firth flood warning scheme has a fluvial input to complement the tidal-driven forecast in order to accurately predict water levels in the Inverness area. The River Ness Flood Alleviation Scheme (RNFAS) plays a crucial role in assessing the flood risk to Inverness from the River Ness and the Moray Firth.

The RNFAS is due for completion in April 2015, and once it is operational it will give The Highland Council up to 48 hours advance notice of high water levels, allowing adequate time to assess the risk and, if necessary, deploy barriers and action other applicable procedures. The Moray Firth flood warning scheme has assumed the RNFAS is ‘as built’ and fully operational, with gate levels and thresholds set accordingly. The new model is integrated within the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) which SEPA uses as the primary platform for all flood forecasting capabilities. The flood forecasting system is kept updated by a team of experienced SEPA hydrologists who use weather forecasts, rainfall data, river level data, and tidal forecasts to predict the likelihood of flooding.

Alerts and Flood Warnings are issued through their web- and telephone-based Floodline service.

SEPA will issue a Flood Warning in areas where a formal flood monitoring scheme is operational.

In areas without a formal flood monitoring scheme, SEPA liaises with the Met Office to scrutinise weather forecasts and will issue a Flood Alert for a wider geographical area; this usually mirrors local authority boundaries. Customers registered with Floodline will receive advance warning of flooding via free text and voice messages sent direct to their mobile or landline, giving them valuable time to take action and protect their property and possessions.

“The Moray Firth has a long history of coastal flooding from wave overtopping, surges and high tide, combined with fluvial flooding.”

Flood Warning Target Areas A Flood Warning Target Area is where SEPA operates a formal flood warning scheme with the available technology to issue targeted Flood Warning messages via the Floodline service. The boundaries of these areas have been set to include properties that may be impacted by the effects of river or coastal flooding, such as access routes being cut off. The inclusion of a property within a Flood Warning Area does not specifically imply that the individual property is at risk of flooding, but helps to identify the area at risk.

Lennox Place and Stewart Street, Portgordon, December 2013.

The introduction of 17 new coastal Flood Warning Target Areas to the Moray Firth will provide accurate advance warning to residents and businesses in the affected areas, prompting people to take action and prepare in advance for flooding.

Floodline When SEPA predict flooding, Flood

Sea surge at Findochty, December 2013.

Lobelia forest. © Mike Robinson

Glacial and Volcanic Flood Risks

Glacier Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalaya Professor Doug Benn, University of St Andrews (currently Professor of Glaciology at the University Centre in Svalbard)

“...glaciers can create flood hazards in many different ways, at all stages of their life cycle.”

Increasing frequency of glacier lake outburst floods may be one of the many unwelcome consequences of global warming. However, glaciers can create flood hazards in many different ways, at all stages of their life cycle. Advancing glaciers can dam up large lakes when they block drainage from adjacent valleys, while retreating glaciers can leave lakes dammed behind their terminal moraines.

Thus glacier lakes, and the consequent flood risks, can be associated with both warming and cooling climates in mountain regions. In the last few decades, large numbers of morainedammed lakes have formed in the Himalaya, as the result of glacier retreat driven by regional warming.

Numerous destructive floods have occurred following dam failures, and many more floods are likely to occur as glaciers continue to melt in the coming decades.

Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) have attracted much attention in the scientific literature and popular media, but it is essential to view them in perspective. In Himalayan countries, GLOFs are less common, and usually much less destructive in terms of human life and property, than floods from other causes, especially temporary blockage of river valleys by landslides. Additionally, in the Himalaya, GLOFs originate in high, often remote mountain valleys, and seldom impact upon heavily populated areas far downstream.

This is unlike the situation in Peru, where large cities are located within areas threatened by GLOFs from the Cordillera Blanca.

Nevertheless, some Himalayan GLOFs have been very destructive, profoundly impacting local communities. For example, the Dig Tsho flood of 1985 (‘tsho’ is the Sherpa word for lake) destroyed a newly completed hydro-electric plant near Namche Bazaar, Nepal, while in 1994 considerable damage was caused in the town of Phunaka, Bhutan, by a GLOF originating from Luggye Glacier.

Although these events resulted in relatively little loss of life, they had a large impact on local perceptions of risk. In turn, this has stimulated hazard mitigation programs, such as that implemented at Tsho Rolpa in central Nepal. In some cases, however, exaggerated flood risk scenarios have been given wide publicity, spreading alarm and distrust among local communities.

Large moraine-dammed lakes do not necessarily mean high flood risk. Many other factors come into play, such as the structure of the moraine dam, and whether unstable ice or rock slopes overlook the lake, possibly triggering avalanches and flood waves. In some cases, lakes can drain slowly, if the level of the dam is lowered gradually rather than catastrophically. It is vitally important, therefore, that flood warnings and hazard management strategies should be based on sound science.

Studies of Himalayan glaciers indicate that glacier lakes will continue to form in the coming decades, some of which may grow extremely large before draining. When glaciers are in good health, long tongues of ice can form, especially where protected by insulating layers

of rock debris (Regime 1). Under a warming climate, however, glaciers can be hit by two effects. First, increased melting occurs in the upper parts of the glacier tongue, where debris is thin. Second, there is a rise in the level at which snow turns to rain, causing a decrease in accumulation, particularly in monsoonal climates where most precipitation falls during the summer months. This causes a rise in the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA). The reaction of the glacier is slow at first, but eventually the lower tongue is starved of mass, and stagnates. Many ponds can form on the glacier surface at this stage (Regime 2), but these usually drain while still relatively small. Eventually, parts of the ice surface are lowered to the level of the terminal moraine, and if this provides a continuous barrier around the tongue a large lake may form during the following decades (Regime 3). Small, relatively low-altitude glaciers are most susceptible to this process, and the size of the glacier tongue limits the potential volume of lakes.

However, large valley glaciers such as Ngozumpa and Khumbu Glaciers are now following the same path.

On the former, a lake has begun to form which has potential to become one kilometre across, several kilometres long and 100 metres deep. If it drains catastrophically, this may seriously impact communities far downstream in the densely populated lowlands. The future will tell, but it is clear that continued monitoring of Himalayan glaciers will be necessary in the coming decades.

Ama Dablam, Nepal, in mist. © Mike Robinson

The

Geographer

18-19

Autumn 2014

Volcanoes beneath the ice:

flooding along the Jökulsá á Fjöllum, Iceland Edwin Baynes, PhD student, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh In August 2014, heightened seismic activity began beneath the Icelandic volcano Bárðarbunga located under Vatnajökull, the largest ice-cap in Iceland. Drawing comparisons to the events following the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, international concern about an eruption at Bárðarbunga focused on the possibility of widespread flight disruption. However, the most destructive potential outcome of a subglacial eruption at Bárðarbunga would be a ‘jökulhlaup’ – a glacial meltwater flood.

Dettifoss.

Jökulhlaups are a serious natural hazard in Iceland as they have the potential to release a large volume of water in a short period of time, inundating the landscape and possibly destroying farms and important infrastructure such as bridges.

Following the Gjálp eruption in 1996, also beneath Vatnajökull, a jökulhlaup with a discharge of 45,000m3 per second washed away the Skeiðarásandur bridge in South Iceland, destroying part of Highway 1, the principal road around the exterior of the country.

In the event of a subglacial eruption at Bárðarbunga, a jökulhlaup would travel north from Vatnajökull along the Jökulsá á Fjöllum river, the second longest in Iceland. This threat led to the evacuation of a large swathe of the central highlands of Iceland and closure of roads in the area.

Like many Icelandic rivers, Jökulsá a Fjöllum contains some pretty impressive waterfalls, the most notable of which is Dettifoss. With a vertical drop of around 50m and a peak summer discharge of 300400m3 per second, it is reputed to be Europe’s most powerful waterfall. Following a subglacial eruption of Bárðarbunga, it was predicted that the meltwaters would raise the discharge in the Jökulsá á Fjöllum by 10 or 20 times (to 2,000-4,000m3 per second), which would rival the average discharge of the Niagara river at Niagara Falls.

Although rare on a human

timescale, the Jökulsá á Fjöllum is no stranger to jökulhlaups. There have been numerous prehistoric jökulhlaups of varying magnitude over the last 10,000 years, since

most of the ice retreated from Iceland. The discharge of the largest ever jökulhlaup along the Jökulsá á Fjöllum has been estimated to be 900,000m3 per second, more than triple the flow of the Amazon and close to rivalling some of the biggest ‘megafloods’ on Earth that occurred following catastrophic drainage of large icedammed lakes in North America and Siberia at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum.

Such large discharges have had a significant impact on the landscape. The evidence for erosion by the Jökulsá á Fjöllum during jökulhlaups is preserved in the rocks of the Jökulsárgljúfur and Ásbyrgi canyons, located over 130km downstream of Vatnajökull.

The Jökulsárgljúfur canyon is significantly wider (~500m) than the modern river channel (~100m), indicating that the flow was much greater when the canyon was formed. Within the canyon are strath terraces that indicate historical positions of the river bed that have been abandoned due to the retreat of waterfalls, such as Dettifoss, during the largest jökulhlaups. The canyon has also eroded through a volcanic crater that has a known eruption age of 8,500 years ago, exposing the conduit that brings lava to the surface in the canyon walls. The canyon is therefore younger than the fissure (ie, <8,500 years).

Twenty-five kilometres north of Dettifoss is Ásbyrgi, a vast

horseshoe-shaped canyon 3km long, 1km wide and up to 100m deep. According to Norse mythology, Ásbyrgi was formed when Odin’s eight-legged horse, Sleipnir, stumbled and put a hoof down on Earth.

However, evidence in the landscape suggests that a more likely hypothesis is that Ásbyrgi was carved during a jökulhlaup.

Large plunge pools are present at the base of the canyon headwall, there is a watersculpted surface immediately upstream of the canyon, and the amphitheatreshaped canyon head is very similar to features elsewhere such as Box Canyon in Idaho and Dry Falls Lake in Washington. Both of these formed during floods following catastrophic drainage of ice-dammed lakes Bonneville and Missoula, respectively. These features show the potential for catastrophic landscape change during large-scale floods triggered by volcanic eruptions beneath ice-caps. However, the recent activity at Bárðarbunga is unlikely to trigger a jökulhlaup along the Jökulsá á Fjöllum of a scale similar to the largest floods over the last 10,000 years, but it could still be large enough to be a major natural hazard.

Ásbyrgi canyon.

See all-geo.org/ volcan01010 For further information about Icelandic volcanoes.

“These features show the potential for catastrophic landscape change during largescale floods triggered by volcanic eruptions beneath icecaps.”

Ice-jams and Puddles

Echoes of an icy past: what relevance to flood risk in the future?

Andrew Black, Senior Lecturer in Geography, University of Dundee

“The possibility of ice-jam flooding was recognised in the design of the Perth flood defences...”

There is a classical model of university teaching and research which values the idea that those two activities are mutually beneficial. I like to believe that a good example of this happened a few months ago when I was teaching an MSc class in Dundee.

Explaining to my students the background to the well-known list of Tay flood peaks recorded on Smeaton’s Bridge in Perth, I noticed that a bicentenary was only a few months away: 200 years since the highest of the floods recorded on that bridge.

On 12th February 1814, the Tay rose to its highest flood since the respected civil engineer John Smeaton had completed his magnificent bridge over the river in 1771. As it turns out, no higher flood has occurred in the 200 years since. However, to a 21st-century audience, the cause must seem as exceptional as the magnitude of the event.

The 1993 flood mark beneath the RSGS HQ door buzzer.

This 1814 event was an icejam flood. After a prolonged icy winter, the thaw that followed led to the break-up of ice from the Tay and its tributaries, and the resultant ice floes jamming in the arches of the bridge. Accordingly, the river rose and was diverted through the town, with a peak level on the bridge recorded at 7.0m above Ordnance Datum (OD). Some sources indicate that the inundation of Perth was probably rapid, and one account indicates that the army was called to fire upon the ice with cannon, as a means of clearing the blockage, though without success.

Ice-jam flooding in the Tay – or indeed any Scottish river – might seem difficult to imagine today, particularly in the context of recorded and projected future climate change.

But, as this photograph from January 1918 shows, a significant depth of ice across the Tay has been known in more recent times, illustrating the potential for flooding if bridge blockage does occur.

Many will recall much more recently the winters of 200910 and 2010-11, especially in Scotland, which were characterised by persistent anticyclonic conditions over north-west Europe and considerable accumulations of snow and ice. Climate projections are often characterised in terms of changes in average conditions, but the variability within those signals is critically important.

During the second of those winters, in December 2010, the River Ayr at Irvine experienced an ice-jam flood, with reportedly a rise of two metres in six hours.

It would be bold to suggest that such phenomena could not cause difficulties again in the future.

Another challenge to our understanding of cold climate processes in Scotland was revealed recently in the form of a research paper in the journal Holocene, with evidence of glacier formation in the

Cairngorms as recently as 400 years ago, in the context of the Little Ice Age (generally accepted as lasting from about 13501850 AD). That period therefore includes the date of the 1814 flood, though we now understand ourselves to be living in rather milder conditions.

Neither the 1918 Perth event nor the Ayr event was associated with flooding as severe as affected Perth in 1814. Quite why the levels got to be so high may be difficult to know exactly, though Canadian research indicates that the flow rates generated by catchment snowmelt and rainfall, and the thickness and strength of the channel ice cover are generally important.

The possibility of ice-jam flooding was recognised in the design of the Perth flood defences, with the design standard being set equal to the height of the 1814 flood, with a further freeboard allowance being provided as a safety precaution. Hydrologists face real challenges when one or more extreme events can have a substantial effect in redefining flood risk assessments. Against that backdrop, and as recognised by the planners and hydrologists who worked on design of the Perth defences, the importance of historic flood records should never be forgotten.

The

Geographer

20-21

Autumn 2014

Pluvial Flooding in Urban Areas: the invisible hazard David Bassett, Director, JBA Consulting; Dr Donald Houston, University of St Andrews; Professor Alan Werrity, University of Dundee; Katharine Knox, Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) JBA has been at the forefront of developing surface water or pluvial mapping techniques at regional and national scales. Our recent joint report, Pluvial (rainrelated) flooding in urban areas: the invisible hazard, provides baseline maps of the flood extents modelled using current rainfall developed for the 200year rainfall falling in three cities across the UK: Glasgow, Luton and Belfast. For this, JBA used a 2D model in which water flows from one grid cell to another and can rapidly derive the flow paths and the areas at risk of ponding associated with different rainfall events. Two durations of rainfall were used (the 1.1 hour and the 10.5 hour events) to assess the impacts of different storms. The figures show the baseline pluvial outline and the climate change outline, showing the increase in area modelled to be potentially at risk from a 200-year rainfall.

The urban population in the UK was then identified and those at risk increased by the proportion found in the three cities mapped.

Currently there are in the order of two million people at risk of pluvial flooding in urban areas across the UK, and by 2050 an additional 1.2 million will be at risk. The risks are expected to increase slightly among more disadvantaged groups. Previous research by Dundee University suggested that fluvial flooding poses a greater risk to less deprived groups whilst coastal flooding poses a greater risk to more deprived groups. This research suggests that it is more disadvantaged communities that are again more likely to be at risk from this surface water or pluvial flooding.

At the UK level, population growth is expected to account for two-thirds of the increase in population at risk, and climate change one-third. The research showed that whilst climate change would increase the percentage of people at risk across the UK, the predicted population growth in the cities would significantly increase

the numbers of people at risk.

Currently the south-east of England is more urbanised and is also at greater risk of surface water or pluvial flooding due to more convective storms associated with the existing weather patterns. If this weather pattern is maintained in the future, then some of the worst impacts are likely to occur in the south-east where existing risk is high, climate change is likely to increase flood risk the most, and the population is likely to grow at the greatest rate.

A key concern is also the availability of flood insurance, as existing agreements between the insurance industry and government on provision of insurance to households living at certain risk thresholds is due to end next year. There is real concern that as flooding risks increase, this will reduce the desirability of those places which are more prone to floods, encouraging people who have more resources to move out and leaving behind those more vulnerable households with the least choices and lowest incomes to deal with the consequences of flooding. A further JRF report recently published on this topic, Social justice and the future of flood insurance, argues that protection is needed in future insurance provision to enable high-risk households to access affordable insurance in order to avoid potential housing and neighbourhood blight due to climate change.

Pluvial (rain-related) flooding in urban areas: the invisible hazard makes a number of recommendations on reducing the impacts of surface water flood risk and clearly identifies the need for a strategic approach from planning and policy makers, water companies and authorities, local authorities and environmental regulators to address the challenges posed by this hazard. It suggests: • publication of pluvial maps to assist people in understanding risk and adapting behaviour;

• i mproved planning and use of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems in new developments, combined with retrofitting these in older urban areas; • refining sub daily rainfall estimates within future climate change projections; • designing resilience into existing and proposed developments; • ensuring insurance for vulnerable households including considering ‘opt-out’ insurance schemes for social renters; • extending surface water management plans; • leaving space for water and incorporating blue and green routes into local plans to allow for pluvial flooding to pass safely by.

Without determining our strategy now it is clear that coping with increased risk will present very real problems across the country.

It would be wise to prepare and plan now for the changes that are coming and overall the report provides a useful reference document for those developing policy and strategy for alleviating flood risk from the pluvial hazard.

This is an extract.

The full JRF reports can be found on the Foundation’s website, at www.jrf.org.uk/ publications/ pluvial-floodinginvisible-hazard and www.jrf.org. uk/publications/ social-justice-floodinsurance.

“Currently there are in the order of two million people at risk of pluvial flooding in urban areas across the UK.”

Baseline and climate change outlines for the 200-year rainfall.

Education

Science Matters Mike Robinson, Chief Executive, Royal Scottish Geographical Society

Mike Robinson outlines some real concerns in the way geographical sciences are being treated in our schools.

“Geography is… the science of joined-up thinking.

If you strip out the science, you miss the point.”

S

cience matters. It drives our industry and our livelihoods.

TV programmes popularise science, we have a Minister for Science in schools, and extra funding at school and university for all things scientific. There is also a strong emphasis on science in Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) – it states that science and the application of science are central to our economic future and to our health and well-being as individuals and as a society: “In a modern ambitious society like ours, sciences for all are vital.”

“Sciences for all”. Not “all sciences”. Perhaps this should more correctly say “some sciences for all are vital”, because somewhere in this rush to push some science, someone decided to ignore others. According to a TIMSS survey in 2007, Scotland came 39th out of 41 OECD countries for the amount of time in the curriculum dedicated to sciences other than the top three – physics, chemistry and biology.

We are putting all of our eggs in three baskets, and those on the periphery are being abandoned, diminished or having the science stripped out. Geology and Earth Science, for which teacher support has not been available since 1985, is ceasing as a Higher as of next year. And Geography (or geographical science), which taught plate tectonics, atmospherics and climate, and rainforests, has seen many of these central tenets of the subject removed, only to be squashed into the other science subjects, which ironically themselves have had significant content altered. Why do we so narrowly constrain our view of

sciences in this country, and yet simultaneously bemoan a lack of scientific literacy?

Geography without science is not geography. Geography is the meeting place of science and social science in the human realm – the science of joined-up thinking. If you strip out the science, you miss the point. And yet current proposals remove even more of the science.

Why aren’t geographical sciences recognised for what they are?

Perhaps geography should be stated as the fourth science – the synthesis and application of science in the real world when you add people. We should be promoting and encouraging its uptake, not unpicking and weakening it. It should be seen as an opportunity to relieve pressure in other science classes, bolstering scientific literacy and increasing the breadth of possible learning. A bridge, even, to some of the purer sciences.

This of course relies on appropriate timetabling. Responding to demand, many schools often make it impossible within the timetable to study all three core sciences; how will they accommodate a fourth?

Only one out of the four secondary schools in my local area currently enables children to study physics, chemistry and biology, leading to pupils being forced to switch schools or to study crash Highers in S6.

Science or not, CfE should be the making of geography with its emphasis on multi-disciplinary thinking, but there are political and economic factors which are thwarting this. In the first instance, in many schools Geography is being delivered as part of a multidisciplinary social studies course as part of broad general education in S1-S3, which is in danger of making each subject more superficial and generalist.

But more worrying than this, apparently driven by local authority cuts, many schools are now offering only six subjects at National 4 and 5 (the equivalent of the old Standard Grade and Intermediate exams – or ‘O’ Grades for those of us who studied prior to 1984). So if, for example, you chose Maths, English and the three sciences, you would have one choice left. What would you choose? Art? Computing?

Business? History? French?

Spanish? Music? Modern Studies?

German? Graphic Communication?

Drama? Economics? PE? ICT? Geography? It feels an incredibly restrictive choice, and not the broad knowledge and wider education I thought CfE was all about. Scotland has always prided itself on the breadth of its education, but this move to only six subjects in S4 will undermine that more than any other single measure.

So where does this leave us?

Politicians continue to talk about a need for scientific literacy, and praise the value of science in industry and innovation, but this is not really being followed through. If we truly believe in this, we need to recognise the role of all scientific subjects in this mix.

We need to retain the scientific integrity of geography and related disciplines, embrace its dynamic and varied nature, and promote the contribution it can make to young people in Scotland today. We need to embrace all the sciences, and at least make it possible to study them all in schools for those who are so inclined. And we need to give our young people sufficient choices to ensure a broad education and to prepare them for the challenges we will face in the 21st century.

It is time we started aligning our educational policy and practice with our national priorities and preferences.

Share Your Geography Here!

Do you have any images from holidays or fieldtrips you would like to share with us? What about some written work, picture of a wall display, or other geographical gem you would like to publish through The Geographer or through

our social media? Perhaps there’s a question you would really like to find out the answer to, or you would like some advice to help you with your studies? Maybe you have a teaching resource or idea, or revision tips you would like to

share with others? If you studied Geography years ago, do you have a copy of your exam paper? If so, we want to hear from you! Please email your ideas and images to our new Education Officer, rachel.hay@rsgs.org.

The

Geographer

River Restoration

22-23

Autumn 2014

Allt Lorgy River Restoration Project Liz Henderson, Project Officer, Spey Catchment Initiative

Allt Lorgy straightened and canalised.

The Spey Catchment Initiative is one of three catchment partnerships operating in and around the Cairngorms National Park. With the headwaters of several major rivers arising in the Cairngorms, catchment management is a priority for partners in the National Park, and is proving an effective means of collaboration.

One of the most innovative projects to date is the river restoration at the Allt Lorgy, a moderately high-energy tributary of the River Dulnain in the Spey catchment. Ground works started here in September 2012.

The aim was to restore the morphology and habitats of a burn and its adjoining floodplain by removing significant artificial constraints that have, over the

Allt Lorgy, two years on.

Lower embankment upstream, July 2011.

years, canalised the watercourse from a multi-braided to a single channel.

The intention was that by kick-starting the process, the watercourse would over time reestablish its natural equilibrium, both improving the habitat and creating a more diverse ecological environment. It should also enable the burn and its floodplain to contribute better to upland water flow management in times of prolonged rainfall or high spate.

Five artificial embankments were lowered by removing over 900m3 of material, which was then used to infill drainage ditches. This, it was hoped, would slow down water reaching the river, and allow it to flood naturally, instead of being channelled.

Lower embankment upstream, June 2013.

Upper section downstream, July 2011.

In-stream boulders were removed and replaced with large wood structures. Additional wood structures were introduced in key locations, and some of the extracted gravel was graded and stockpiled to be used for sediment reintroduction.

The site was then deer-fenced, and nearly 5,000 native species trees donated by the Woodland Trust were planted by volunteers including the local primary school.

Two years on, and in-stream features such as pools and riffles have been created and a more variable substrate now exists. Following several spates and a significant flood event, the processes of erosion and deposition are now well underway.

“The aim was to restore… a burn and its adjoining floodplain by removing significant artificial constraints.”

Contact Liz Henderson (l.henderson@ speyfisheryboard. com) for more information on this and other projects instigated by the Spey Catchment Initiative.

Upper section downstream, two years on.

RSGS History

The Role of Women in British Exploration Professor Michael Pacione FRSGS, University of Strathclyde

This is the third extract from the book Scottish Geography – A Historiography written by Professor Michael Pacione to mark the 130th anniversary of the RSGS.

Ella Christie.

Spe ci buy al Off t er see his b for bac o R k p ok f SGS age o M for r on emb det ly £ er ails 8 s

The narrative of British exploration is dominated by the exploits of men. Although the cultural context of the time and the physical demands of such activity militated against the involvement of women, the fairer sex were not excluded entirely. A number of women undertook journeys of exploration that were as challenging as those of their male counterparts. Many were recorded in the pages of the Scottish Geographical Magazine.

Miss Ella Sykes gave an account of her travels in Persia and Baluchistan, where she had gone to ‘keep house’ for her brother Percy who had been commissioned to found British Consulates. Mrs Theodore Bent described two months of travelling on the island of Sokotra, and Olive Chapman recounted a journey among primitive tribes in Madagascar.

In an address to the RSGS in Aberdeen in 1912, Mrs Mary Gaunt presented a “new view of west Africa” in which she offered a more positive interpretation of the region in contrast to the popular view of west Africa as “the land of miasma and fever, of swamp, heat and mosquito, land in fact to which no man would go willingly, a land to which he is driven by sheer necessity”.

Mrs Gaunt showed remarkable willpower in overcoming the difficulties encountered on her travels, that included hazardous terrain and bearers leaving her stranded without fresh water.

Fortitude and determination were also required of Annie Taylor, the English evangelical missionary and first Western woman known to have visited Tibet. In an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to reach the ‘forbidden city’ of Lhasa in 1892, she shaved her hair and disguised herself in Tibetan dress but, betrayed by a disgruntled servant, she was apprehended by the authorities only three days’ march

Isobel Wylie Hutchison.

from the city, and ordered to leave the country. After an arduous return journey of five months, she reached China and returned to England.

Taylor’s account of her travels read at meetings of the Society in Edinburgh and Glasgow in 1893 provided a fascinating insight on the geography of the country.

Those who have visited Tibet will sympathise with her experience of the effects of altitude: “breathing was very difficult, and I awoke in the night gasping for breath. I also suffered much from palpitations of the heart”. Of less value to today’s traveller but no less interesting was her explanation of the conditions pertaining to hiring a yak, which cost four bricks of tea per animal, and if they died on the road or were carried off by brigands, apart from the irresistible Golok tribes, the hirer bore the cost. In 1904 Taylor joined the British (Younghusband) expedition to Tibet as a nurse, finally reaching Lhasa in August, before returning to England in 1907.

Bridget Tilman, in planning a trip to Somaliland, revealed the problems created by imperfect geographical knowledge, recounting how a shipping clerk advised her to “sail as far as Aden, take the train to Jibuti, and then fly to Berbera”.

She explained that “I thanked the clerk for his prompt advice, but fortunately did not rely on it, or I would have had to wait till the Red Sea was tunnelled to permit the running of his train”.

One of the most renowned female explorers of the late 19th century was Mrs Isabella Bishop. In November 1891 she read a paper on the upper Karun region and Bakhtiari Lurs to meetings of the RSGS in Edinburgh and Glasgow in which she provided detailed insight on the geography of the region, the commercial rivalry between Britain and Russia, and the cultural practices of the peoples. On the latter she recalled that “while camped close to the village of Kohra Rukh, on a bright moonlight night, I had a specimen of the dexterity of Persian thieves, followed by an illustration of the celerity of Bakhtiari justice, for I was robbed of the money for a four months’ journey, being left literally penniless, but in one week the money was restored by the Ilkhani, the feudal head of the Bakhtiaris, having being levied, according to their custom, on the village where the robbery occurred. The thief, when caught, was liable to have either his right or left hand cut off, the choice of dismemberment being referred to me”. In 1892 Mrs Bishop was invited by the RSGS to deliver the inaugural address to the new London branch of the Society; and shortly thereafter she became the first woman member of the Royal Geographical Society.

Further journeys followed in 1897, when she travelled up the Yangtze River in China, and among the Berber tribes of Morocco. She died in Edinburgh in 1904 at the age of 72, planning another trip to China.

“...she shaved her hair and disguised herself in Tibetan dress but, betrayed by a disgruntled servant, she was apprehended by the authorities...”

The

Geographer

RSGS Explorer-in-Residence

24-25

Autumn 2014

The Polar Academy: Team now selected Craig Mathieson, RSGS Explorer-in-Residence

With all the selection weekends completed, the extremely difficult task of choosing the lucky ‘10’ young adults that will go on the Polar Academy’s expedition to Greenland next April had to be done.

If truth be told, everyone who went through the selection process deserved to go; however, we had to sit down and make some difficult decisions. When we were finished, my guides and I were all in agreement that we had chosen a team who would not only grow over the next few months of training into confident individuals, but would be an inspiration to their peers once they returned from the ice.

On Sunday 13th July, I invited the selected participants and their parents over to my house for a meeting. At this point, nobody knew if they were successful or not, so emotions were running high as I asked them one at a time to come into my front room for a chat.

There was also the added pressure of a television film crew who have been documenting the Polar Academy for the past few months.

The reactions from both the participants and the parents were incredible as I told them that they had been selected for the first ever Polar Academy expedition to Greenland. There were tears of joy from everyone, especially the parents. It means so much to them all, a true life-changing opportunity, a chance to break the mould and achieve something beyond their dreams.

Therefore, I’m very proud to announce that the first ever Polar Academy Team is: Carla Brawley, Sara Dunn, Morgan Healy, Jack Inglis, Colin Myles, Paul Shuttleworth, Holly Stewart, Jodie Thorburn, Mateusz Trojnar, Rhiannon Walker.

The day wasn’t done yet: I still had to give the news to the

unsuccessful candidates. I had been thinking of how to do this for many weeks previously, as I still wanted everyone to be involved with the Polar Academy.

Therefore, along with the Active School Co-ordinators in North Lanarkshire, we devised a plan.

We would find further funding to send them back to Glenmore Lodge to complete the ‘Polar Academy Leadership Course’.

will be for both teams; however, the Expedition Team will spend a couple of nights out in the Cairngorms to experience a taste of expedition life.

In other news, I’m not long back from a trip up to East Greenland, getting the logistics firmed up for next year’s expedition. All our dehydrated food and sledges were shipped up a few weeks ago, so it was great to see that everything had arrived safely. I also caught up with my contacts in the hospital and police, as well as local hunters and outfitters, to let them all know what we are planning to do and what support I would like them to provide.

On the funding side of matters, I was extremely happy to receive a couple of donations from RSGS members, as every pound raised makes such a difference. We now have a new website up and running (www. thepolaracademy.org) which can take direct donations by credit/debit cards as well as PayPal.

This course has been designed to give everyone the level of knowledge to be able to go into primary schools and teach basic outdoor skills, such as navigation and camping.

Therefore, we now have two teams: the Expedition Team who are training hard for a manhauling expedition to Greenland next April, and the Leadership Team. This team will be training alongside the Expedition Team and will be called upon to join the expedition if there is an injury to a member of the team. They will also be conducting a lecture tour of primary schools within their community, inspiring the younger generation in outdoor skills and geography.

Finally, I’m really looking forward to my lecture tour for the RSGS in late October. If you are free, please come along and ask a few questions. The dates are: 27 October – Dumfries 28 October – Borders 29 October – Ayr 30 October – Helensburgh As always, if you want to discuss anything regarding the Polar Academy or exploration in general, please feel free to give me a call on 01506 825115 or email me at craigmathieson@ blueyonder.co.uk or contact me via RSGS HQ.

Carla Brawley

Sara Dunn

Morgan Healy

Jack Inglis

Colin Myles

Paul Shuttleworth

Holly Stewart

Jodie Thorburn

Mateusz Trojnar

In October, everyone returns to Glenmore Lodge for what will be an intensive week of training. Many of the sessions Rhiannon Walker

Book Club

Professor Michael Pacione took on the mammoth task of reading and researching 129 years of the Scottish Geographical Journal (Scottish Geographical Magazine as was) to produce a new book to help mark our 130th anniversary. Available to RSGS members at a special price of only £8 (£12 non-members) plus P&P, the book details the development of geography over that period, celebrates some of the characters who have helped in its development, and helps categorise and summarise the nearly 3,000 articles by over 1,400 authors that have appeared in our academic journal since it was established. Copies are available from RSGS HQ.

Edinburgh: Mapping the City Christopher Fleet and Daniel MacCannell (Birlinn, in association with the National Library of Scotland, October 2014)

Maps can tell much about the story of a place that traditional histories fail to communicate. This is particularly true of Edinburgh, one of the most visually stunning cities in the world and a place rich in historical and cultural associations. This lavishly illustrated new book features 71 maps of Edinburgh selected for the particular stories they reveal about the political, commercial and social life of Scotland and her capital. Many are reproduced in book form for the first time. Together, they present a fascinating insight into how Edinburgh has changed and developed over the last 500 years, and will appeal to all those with an interest in Edinburgh and Scottish history, as well as anyone interested in urban or architectural history, town planning or cartography.

Adventures in the Anthropocene A Journey to the Heart of the Planet We Made Gaia Vince (Chatto & Windus, July 2014) The Earth is said to be crossing a geological boundary, from the Holocene into the Anthropocene. Gaia Vince left her job at science journal Nature to travel the world at the start of this new age and explore what these changes mean.

She found ordinary people solving severe crises in ingenious, effective ways: the retired railway worker who’s building artificial glaciers in the Himalayas; villagers in India using satellite technology to glean water; women farmers in Africa combining the latest genetic discoveries with ancient irrigation techniques; and the man who’s making islands out of rubbish in the Caribbean.

Alongside these inspiring stories, Gaia looks at how humanity’s changes are transforming our relationship with the natural world, and explores how we might engineer Earth for our future.

The Crossing of Antarctica Original Photographs from the Epic Journey That Fulfilled Shackleton’s Dream George Lowe, Huw Lewis-Jones, and Sir Ranulph Fiennes (Thames & Hudson, September 2014)

The first crossing of Antarctica in 1957-58 by the Trans-Antarctic Expedition, led by RSGS Medallist Vivian Fuchs, was one of the 20th century’s great triumphs of exploration. Sir Ernest Shackleton famously attempted to cross the great white continent during his ill-fated Endurance voyage, and now, one hundred years after he set out, this beautifully illustrated volume celebrates the men who succeeded where he had failed. With exclusive access to the spectacular images and private archives of key member George Lowe, photographer and Everest veteran, and items from the Fuchs family collection, there has never been a book on Antarctica quite like this.

The Irresponsible Traveller

eader Offer R 50% discount

Tales of Scrapes and Narrow Escapes

edited by Jennifer Barclay and Adrian Phillips (Bradt Travel Guides, September 2014) Published to coincide with Bradt’s 40th anniversary, The Irresponsible Traveller is a light but edgy collection of travellers’ tales.

Travel writers and celebrities alike recount their exciting, and often dangerous, adventures, which include being chased by a sea-lion, accosted by Brazilian kidnappers, and a midnight raid to free turtles on the Amazon. Over 40 years, Bradt has built a

Offer ends 30th November 2014

reputation for publishing books covering the road less travelled, and this collection celebrates exactly the sort of writing and storytelling about ‘unusual’ travel experiences that has helped to establish the company as a firm favourite amongst adventurous travellers. Featuring contributions from Hilary Bradt, Michael Palin, Ben Fogle and Jonathan Scott, the title is a perfect tome to dip in and out of.

Readers of The Geographer can purchase The Irresponsible Traveller for only £5.49 (RRP £10.99).

To order, visit www.bradtguides.com and enter the discount code ‘RSGS’ at the checkout.

Help us to make the connections between people, places and the planet.

Phone 01738 455050 or visit www.rsgs.org to join the RSGS. Lord John Murray House, 15-19 North Port, Perth, PH1 5LU

Charity SC015599

Printed by www.jtcp.co.uk on Cocoon Preprint 120gsm paper. 100% FSC certified recycled fibre using vegetable based inks in a 100% chemistry free process.

Professor Michael Pacione (RSGS, September 2014)

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Scottish Geography: A Historiography