The Geographer: Climate Change (Winter 2016)

The

Geographer WINTER 2016-17

The newsletter of

the Royal Scottish Geographical Society

Bitesize: Climate Change Solutions “The window of opportunity to stabilize the climate is quickly closing in on us.”

• Food Waste, Cities and Transport

Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC

• Buildings, Business and Big Opportunities • Laurent Fabius: Shackleton Medallist • Views from Jamaica, Bolivia and Hong Kong • Lord Krebs, Professor Skea and Mark Carney • Reader Offer: Scotland: Mapping the Islands

plus news, books, and more…

The

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e convened the Bitesize project (see page 5) in a mood of optimism. The world had finally got round to agreeing some action on climate change, and there was renewed purpose to be more ambitious. However insufficient the commitments and belated the agreement, the Paris 2015 deal was an incredible achievement of international negotiation, and set the world on a path to begin to tackle this problem seriously.

The Paris Agreement came into effect on 4th November 2016. At the time of writing, 113 countries producing c79% of global emissions have made a clear commitment to reduce emissions to try to keep temperature rise below 2°C, and preferably below 1.5°C, to avoid dangerous climate change.

However, on 9th November 2016, the United States (with 17.89% of global emissions) chose a President-elect who said that climate change was “created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive.” With its new political landscape, it is highly likely the US will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, though the ink is barely dry.

The Paris Agreement needed approval from at least 55 signatory countries representing at least 55% of global emissions in order for it to be ratified. The Agreement itself is more voluntary than obligatory, so a US withdrawal would make the emissions fall to a precarious 61% or so, and any knock-on impact to other countries could undermine the whole process. If that is the case, it is likely we will have committed ourselves to a trajectory which ensures a more than 1.5˚C temperature rise before Trump demits office.

But if the other 112 signatories to the Paris Agreement stand firm, then the US will be left behind as the rest of the world pursues a lower-carbon future. And with the changes going on in China and throughout Asia and South America, perhaps that is where we should focus our efforts if we are to help bring about meaningful global change.

Whatever happens politically, the principle of Bitesize is even more urgent, and focusing our ‘exportise’ and assistance on the developing world is ultimately likely to benefit both Scotland and the wider world in making the biggest difference to global emissions.

Mike Robinson, Chief Executive

www.rsgs.org Charity registered in Scotland no SC015599 The views expressed in this newsletter are not necessarily those of the RSGS. Cover image: Zooey via Flickr - www.flickr.com/photos/izoo3y

RSGS: a better way to see the world

It has been a fantastic start to the Inspiring People season, our first with partner Tiso.

So far, we have heard from 11 different speakers and presented one new Fellowship and the 2016 Livingstone Medal. Highlights, according to feedback from our Local Group volunteers, have included Harry Hook’s talk About Africa in Pictures, Mark Stephen’s Reflections on Scotland’s Outdoors, and Doug Allan’s Oceans at the Crossroads.

Our talks have already taken guests to many different corners of the world, and 2017 looks set to take you to more exotic locales.

Join Charlie Walker as he recounts tales of exploration in 60 different countries, Jason Lewis as he reminisces about circumnavigating the globe by human power alone, and our very own Geographer Royal for Scotland Professor Charles Withers as he takes us on a journey, closer to home, around the Scottish islands.

We look forward to seeing many of you at our talks in the New Year, and invite you to bring along some friends too. You can find full details of all our talks on our website; just look for the Inspiring People talks link.

Medal for RGS-IBG Director In October, we presented our Society’s most prestigious medal, the Scottish Geographical Medal, to Dr Rita Gardner CBE, Director of the Royal Geographical Society (with IBG). The Medal The citation was read by RSGS Chairman Professor Roger was awarded in Crofts CBE (left), and the Medal was presented by Geographer recognition of Royal for Scotland Professor Charles Withers (right).

Dr Gardner’s leadership of the Royal Geographical Society in a period of significant transition, her continuing efforts to enhance the regard for Geography in education, and as one of the leading and innovative professional geographers in the UK. The presentation was celebrated in the unique surroundings of RSGS’s Explorers’ Room.

A big year for the climate 2016 was a big year for climate change, for both good and bad reasons. According to Climate Central (www.climatecentral. org), 2016 saw confirmation that one-third of the Great Barrier Reef was now dead and bleached, largely from warmer seas; that the global average temperature rise exceeded 1.5˚C during the year; and that global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide exceeded the 400ppm mark for the first time. And whilst the Paris Climate Agreement has been ratified by over 100 nations, 2016 has now been confirmed as the warmest year on record. Lots of this news feels familiar, but it underlines the need for renewed urgency in tackling this issue, once again reinforcing the need for ambitious solutions.

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RSGS, Lord John Murray House, 15-19 North Port, Perth, PH1 5LU tel: 01738 455050 email: enquiries@rsgs.org

Inspiring People

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RSGS welcomes new Fellows

Livingstone Medal

Magnus received his Medal from RSGS Board Member Vanessa Collingridge at a special event at Glasgow University after his talk as part of the Inspiring People programme. You can find out more about the medal presentation and Mary’s Meals on our blog.

Miss Margaret Ferguson We want to offer our sincere and grateful thanks to the late Miss Margaret Ferguson, of Edinburgh. Having been a Member of the Society for nearly 48 years, Miss Ferguson was kind enough to remember us in her Will, with an extremely generous legacy of some £32,000 which we were pleased to receive in November.

As we are a relatively small charity, this amount is very significant and will make a big difference to our work programme over the next couple of years, as we consolidate recent improvements and build for the future.

Ever since we were established in 1884, the support of our Members, through subscriptions, donations and legacies, and through active participation, has been vital. Legacy gifts have kept RSGS going through lean times in the past, allowing us to continue, to develop and to grow. And many of our achievements over the years have only been possible because of money received from RSGS supporters in Wills or in memory of loved ones.

So, thank you Miss Ferguson.

please consider leaving a legacy

WSP|Parsons Brinckerhoff In the introduction to the last edition of The Geographer, we accidentally misspelled the name of one of our supporters.

We would like to apologise to WSP|Parsons Brinckerhoff for the error, and to thank them again for their help.

Liz Crisp, teacher and former SAGT President.

Mark Stephen, BBC Radio Scotland journalist.

Sophia Harkness, Chair of Joseph Thomson Project Group.

Coastal carbon: call for abstracts Craig Smeaton (University of St Andrews), William Austin (University of St Andrews), Hilary Kennedy (Bangor University), Evina Gontikaki (University of Aberdeen), and Thomas Bianchi (University of Florida) are convening a session at the European Geoscience Union (EGU) General Assembly 2017, taking place in Vienna, Austria, 23rd-28th April 2017.

They are inviting submission of abstracts for the session BG3.3/OS3.9, Coastal Carbon: From Vegetated Coasts to Sedimentary Stores, and would welcome abstracts from researchers of any level working on aspects of coastal carbon. See meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2017/ session/24946 for details of the session and the link for submitting abstracts. The deadline is 11th January 2017.

University News

In November we had the great pleasure of presenting Magnus MacFarlane-Barrow OBE with our Livingstone Medal, which is awarded for an outstanding contribution to humanitarian work with a clear geographical dimension.

Magnus was awarded the Medal in recognition of his dedication to changing the lives of millions of children across the world “one meal at a time” through the work of Mary’s Meals. Over the last 15 years, Magnus has taken Mary’s Meals from a simple idea to a major charity which feeds over one million school children in 12 countries around the world every day. Magnus in Haiti. © Chris Leslie

Fair Maid’s House Book In November, we were visited by volunteers from the Pitlochry Station Bookshop who, very kindly, presented us with a lovely, antique copy of illustrations for Sir Walter Scott’s book The Fair Maid of Perth. The volume of six finely-engraved pictures was published in 1878 for members of The Royal Association of Fine Arts in Scotland. The presentation took place in the Explorers’ Room at the Fair Maid’s House.

Pictured (L to R) are Mike Robinson (RSGS), Bobbie McGraw, Carolyn Russell, and Graham Homes (Chairman, Pitlochry Station Bookshop).

Inter-City Express As part of our commitment to sustainable travel, we are now working in collaboration with Transform Scotland, the Scottish Council for Development and Industry, and the Rail Freight Group to improve rail services north of the Central Belt, and specifically to promote Perth as an inter-city rail hub. We hosted an initial meeting with our new partners at RSGS HQ in November.

You can find out more about the Inter-City Express project on both the RSGS blog and the Transform Scotland website. The Scottish Government are also inviting the public to comment: if you would like to share your views, please see consult.scotland.gov.uk/rail-policy/railinfrastructure-strategy-from-2019 for more information.

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Climate change and ever-increasing populations have contributed to make Africa the continent that faces the largest challenges with regard to soil conservation and food security.

Scientists from seven sub-Saharan African countries met at the University of Pretoria in October 2016 to launch the African Soil Microbiology Project. This three-year project, funded by USAID, aims to undertake a broad-scale survey of soil microbiology across the entire African continent, using the latest nextgeneration DNA sequencing and computational technologies.

This unique multinational project, the first ever study of this nature to be undertaken in Africa at this scale, is expected to unravel the complexities of soil microbiological diversity across sub-Saharan Africa. The results of the research will contribute to our understanding of soil fertility, soil degradation, the future impact of climate change, and important health issues, such as soil-borne pathogens.

Contact the project director, Professor Don Cowan (don.cowan@ up.ac.za), for more information.

RSGS AGM

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March

We are planning the next AGM for the afternoon of Tuesday 14th March 2017, in Perth. The meeting will be chaired by our President, Professor Iain Stewart, who will give an Inspiring People talk that evening in Perth. Amongst other items on the AGM agenda, we are seeking to appoint new members of Board (Trustees).

Two existing Board members (Roger Crofts and John McCrone) have completed their first term and both are willing to stand for re-election. Two vacancies also exist.

We would particularly welcome nominations from those with financial and fundraising expertise and contacts within those sectors. Board roles are held for a maximum of two terms each of three years, and commitments include four half-day Board meetings a year, usually in Perth. Anyone wishing to put themselves forward for nomination must be an RSGS member, and will need a Proposer and a Seconder (also both RSGS members). If you are interested, then please contact RSGS HQ or email chair@rsgs.org for further details. The deadline for nominations will be Monday 16th January 2017.

We will send further details of the AGM, together with the 2015-16 Annual Review, to Members in early February 2017.

Fellowship for RSGS Chief Executive We are delighted that Mike Robinson has been awarded Honorary Fellowship of Scottish Environment LINK, the forum for Scotland’s voluntary environment organisations, with over 35 member bodies representing a range of environmental interests with the common goal of contributing to a more environmentally sustainable society.

Helen Todd, LINK Chair, explained, “LINK Honorary Fellowship is our way of recognizing individuals who have made a significant contribution to Scottish Environment LINK over a long period. We are delighted to have Mike as an Honorary Fellow.”

Doors sealed days Our thanks again to Perth Common Good Fund and to Glaze & Save for their help in making our visitor centre and office warmer for the winter. As well as applying secondary glazing to windows, Glaze & Save have insulated outer doors of the buildings with InvisiSeal™, an innovative translucent silicone polymer that fills the gap between a wooden door and its frame, reducing draughts by more than half.

This was a particularly good solution for us, as some of the doors had variable gaps of up to 10mm! Please contact us or visit www. glazeandsave.co.uk if you would like to know more.

Low growth in global carbon emissions Global carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels did not increase in 2015 and are projected to have risen only slightly in 2016, according to researchers at the University of East Anglia’s Tyndall Centre, and the Global Carbon Project. The new data, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows emissions growth remained below 1% despite GDP growth exceeding 3%. This marks a clear break from the rapid emissions growth of 2.3% per year in the decade to 2013.

Decreased use of coal in China, the biggest emitter of CO2 at 29%, is the main reason behind the three-year slowdown.

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African Soil Microbiology Project

Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Director of the Tyndall Centre, said, “This third year of almost no growth in emissions is unprecedented at a time of strong economic growth. This is a great help for tackling climate change but it is not enough.

Global emissions now need to decrease rapidly, not just stop growing.” Although the break in emissions rise ties in with the pledges by countries to decrease emissions until 2030, it falls short of the reductions needed to limit climate change well below 2°C.

GeoBus welcomes 50,000th pupil The GeoBus, an education project developed by the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of St Andrews, which offers Earth Science resources and lessons to secondary schools in Scotland, welcomed its 50,000th pupil aboard when it visited Perth Academy in mid-November.

Big thank-you to volunteers Mike Robinson, RSGS Chief Executive The many, many volunteers who contribute so much to RSGS every year have made a big difference to the impact we are able to make for geography in many arenas, virtually doubling the capacity of the small team of staff at HQ. The Local Groups play a critical role in hosting and running talks, looking after speakers, and organising their own social and other activities in the 13 different locations in which we operate across Scotland, giving us a presence from Inverness to Dumfries, and from Ayr to Edinburgh.

Our volunteer guides in the Fair Maid’s House enable us to open the doors to the public between April and October; in 2016 we were joined by eight new recruits, plus several students on their way to study Geography at university, and welcomed an increased number of tourists. Our Collections Team are in the Fair Maid’s House most Mondays, sorting and cataloguing and researching the collections, and providing an invaluable service to our guests.

Our Writer-in-Residence and Explorer-in-Residence are busy working on projects that are helping to raise our profile and expand our influence. Our regular office volunteers assist with everything from gardening to database management, and are an enormous asset to the Society. And our Board members commit huge amounts of time to overseeing and driving our work and our networks.

Ultimately we are a Society of our members and volunteers: I am grateful to each and every one of them, and I hope they will keep supporting us over the coming months and years. If you would like to join their number, please get in touch.

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The Polar Academy Craig Mathieson, RSGS Explorer-in-Residence

It’s been a very busy, but positive, time for the Polar Academy recently. The 2017 Expedition Team have been working extremely hard for the past couple of months, with a weekly intensive fitness regime.

They have also been up to the Cairngorms for a week of expedition skills training. The week proves to the team that they can perform at a high level for several hours a day; however, it also promotes the team-building and leadership skills they will need when on the Arctic ice next March.

The BBC will be joining us again in the New Year for another training session. This time I think I’ll make it harder!

A Higher cause Many of you will have noticed the recent media flurry around geography in schools, especially in the Higher. This follows close work between RSGS and SAGT, who have researched their members about the delivery of this course, and unearthed some widespread concerns about its implementation.

We remain concerned about the dilution of the physical geography component of some of these courses, and the lack of total marks available to allow candidates to demonstrate their geographical ability. We also still harbour real concerns about the reduction in the number of subjects which can be studied in many upper schools, and the increasing incidence of non-specialist teaching of geography in the first three years of secondary school. SAGT are in discussions with the SQA to address these concerns as far as they relate to the exams, and RSGS will be meeting the Cabinet Secretary for Education in early 2017.

The ambitious restoration of the Great Polish Map of Scotland in Eddleston, a very large outdoor topographic map constructed in the 1970s, has been progressing well, thanks to the tireless work of a small team of volunteers, who have now stabilised and in part reconstructed the map, reinforced the foundations, added water to highlight the coasts, installed a new elevated viewing tower, and promoted the map and restoration project through information panels, leaflets, talks, and media.

The work is not over yet though. Longer-term aspirations include painting the map and supplying water to the heads of the major glens, and there is an ongoing need to preserve the map and offset the effects of weather and slow degradation. See www. mapascotland.org for more information and to get involved.

Growing our influence After working jointly with the Scottish Council for Development and Industry in both the Bitesize event and a rail network event, we have agreed to join them formally, to extend our network more actively into the business and public sector communities. We hope this will lead to further collaboration and even more opportunities to promote the importance of geography with employers and businesses. We have also agreed to work more closely with the Asia Scotland Institute. Please get in touch if you would like more information or would like to get involved.

RSGS Blog We update our blog weekly with in-depth news stories from RSGS HQ as well as stories from our volunteers and members. Recently we have been sharing your favourite places in Scotland and your favourite rail journeys in Scotland. If you would like to share your own stories, please email media@rsgs.org. Thank you to everybody who has been involved so far. You can find our blog on our website homepage at rsgs.org.

Scotland’s food waste challenge A new report by Zero Waste Scotland, How much food and drink waste is there in Scotland?, reveals an estimated 1.35 million tonnes of food and drink in Scotland was wasted in 2013. The figure gives the most detailed insight yet into the true scale of the food we waste, and will be used as the baseline for the Scottish Government’s flagship target to reduce food waste by a third by 2025. The research shows that 44% is household waste, and 38% is manufacturing waste, with hospitality, health, retail and education making up much of the remainder.

Cabinet Secretary for Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform Roseanna Cunningham said, “The amount of food wasted in Scotland is staggering, which is why the Scottish Government has set a target to reduce food waste by 33% by 2025, one of the most ambitious targets of its kind.”

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We’ve also been very busy with the media. In November, we had a visit from BBC Radio Scotland’s Fiona Stalker. Fiona has been an avid supporter for the past few years; however, this time she wanted to join a Polar Academy training session. It goes without saying that if you are not used to hauling heavy tyres or doing our now infamous ‘polar press-ups’, you may struggle a bit. After about 30 yards of hauling, Fiona pointed out that her leg muscles were burning and she was out of breath. She then asked if the Polar Academy pupils have to haul the tyres this far – she was more than a bit surprised when I explained that they have to haul heavier tyres for up to 30km in a single session!

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Some highlights from 2016 January: we convened a land reform round-table with the Scottish Consortium for Rural Research and the University of Dundee.

January: the Young Geographer editorial board attended a training weekend and the project formally began.

March: Annie Lennox OBE was interviewed by Sheena McDonald at her Livingstone Medal event in Edinburgh.

April: Professor Iain Stewart opened the Fair Maid’s House.

April: the Friends of Pskov Association held a reception and opened a photographic exhibition in the Fair Maid’s House.

May: thanks to our members and supporters, we opened the new Croll Garden.

June: we printed an updated version of our Discovering RSGS booklet. eptember: we ran a major S conference on Bitesize climate solutions, with ECCI and SCDI, supported by the Scottish Government.

September: Laurent Fabius received the Shackleton Medal at an event at Edinburgh Castle hosted by Cabinet Secretary Roseanna Cunningham MSP. October: Dr Rita Gardner received the Scottish Geographical Medal at RSGS HQ, for her contribution to geography.

N ovember: we convened a round-table on the future of rail infrastructure and services.

November: Magnus MacFarlane-Barrow received the Livingstone Medal in Glasgow, for his work with Mary’s Meals.

My favourite place in Scotland Innerpeffray Library, Hazel Buchan Cameron I first discovered the tiny Innerpeffray Library near Crieff from signage that made me curious. I was a single mother of three children, one still a baby, so finding time for excursions wasn’t easy. However, I’d always loved libraries so this was a ‘must visit’ place almost on my doorstep.

When I finally found time to visit, I followed the sign pointing toward a rural landscape of fields, trees and a couple of buildings which looked like old farmhouses.

I wasn’t sure if I’d followed the sign correctly, but then arrived at a large tree dominating the centre of a small car park next to a house. There were no other cars and nowhere else to go. A further sign pointed along a grassy path. This really was a library in a field – how strange – and not only in a field but tucked behind an old chapel and sitting on a steep slope above the River Earn with a spectacular vista across mountainous countryside.

A doorway led to a spiral stone staircase. On arriving at the top, I felt I’d entered a time portal and gone back several hundred years, and in a way, I had.

A distinguished-looking gentleman greeted me with an understandable mix of surprise and horror... children, and lots of them.

As the car park had indicated, I was the only visitor, so I received his full attention; unfortunately, he did not receive mine because I was so amazed by the beauty of this small room filled with cabinets of books that I could not concentrate. In equal measure I was both thrilled and dumbstruck to be there. The library originated in 1680 and was the first public lending library in Scotland, and here it still was with many of the same books.

It would be 20 years before I visited again, having moved back to the area, this time with no children but even more curiosity. Now, each time I go, it’s never long enough, and I discover another piece of magic. Almost every book has something waiting to be revealed: a signature inside the cover, an illuminating paragraph about coffee making, notes in the margin of a rare travel book, a picture of an even rarer bird. Sometimes it’s an illustration that leads on to another story. There are old maps and forgotten poetry. The one thing that can’t be captured in words is the atmosphere of the building, which now has a visitor room alongside the library. It does not feel old or austere but welcoming: it holds so much gravitas in the lightest way. There is no amount of time that could satisfy my curiosity of its contents.

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Background to Bitesize Mike Robinson, Chief Executive, RSGS

Climate change affects every aspect of our lives and can be addressed in a variety of ways, but it is such a huge issue that it can be difficult to understand how to have any impact.

The Bitesize project is an attempt to simplify this and help identify those actions which will make the biggest difference.

To deliver Bitesize, Rachel Nunn and I used the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the Scottish Government’s Second Report on Policies and Proposals (RPP2) as the main basis for investigation. We summarised vast amounts of background data, consulted a wide range of academic experts, policy specialists and practitioners, and attempted to identify those sectors where leadership from Scottish business and other bodies would make the greatest difference, either by directly contributing to targets in Scotland, or by providing leadership, expertise, tools or example to the rest of the world.

If there is appetite and commitment to progress these, it will help inform future climate policy domestically, and cement a reputation for Scotland and Scottish industry and academic know-how on the world stage.

Need At the end of 2015, the Paris COP laid down a significant challenge to world governments: that we should reduce emissions to try to keep the average temperature rise over pre-industrial levels below 1.5°C (rather than the previouslydiscussed 2°C), as the lower the temperature rise the safer the outcome for humanity. This will require urgent and significant action if it is to be achieved.

Discussions aimed to raise awareness of strategic efforts, help inform the Scottish Government’s future low-carbon plans and targets, help establish the next steps in achieving reductions, and help Scotland maximise its reputation for leadership in this issue of global concern.

Future emissions The greatest forecast growth in global emissions is in the establishment and growth of non-OECD economies, in particular through following a high-carbon path. The nonOECD nations are clear that the developed world is largely responsible for historical carbon emissions, but in order to both protect their citizens and avoid a high-carbon trajectory, it is critical they are encouraged and supported to pursue a low-carbon path as soon as possible. It is, after all, a lot easier and cheaper to incorporate energy efficiency and low-carbon activity before something is built than to fit it retrospectively.

There is a role for Scottish business and government in establishing, trialling and funding clear new examples of actions and good practice, expertise and technology, which can impact at home and be ‘exported’ in order to help share, shape and deliver wider international change – ‘exportise’, as the conference described it. Bitesize has attempted to prioritise those measures in which Scotland can play the greatest role through ‘exportise’ in reducing emissions and maximising impact and leadership both domestically and internationally.

“There is great merit in being seen to be expert in something the whole world is signed up to.”

Opportunity Scotland can genuinely claim international leadership around this issue, with its world-leading Climate Act (setting a target of a 42% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2020) and Climate Justice Fund (allocating £3m pa towards climate adaptation work in affected developing nations).

The UK Committee on Climate Change recently reported on Scotland’s performance (see pages 10 and 11). It praised much of the action in Scotland but also identified areas where further effort is required, most notably buildings, transport and agriculture. The Scottish Government is responding with proposals for a Climate Delivery Plan (into which the Bitesize findings will feed), a Warm Homes Bill, and a possible new Climate Act to take better account of the 1.5˚C threshold.

Bitesize In September 2016, we convened a Bitesize conference at the Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation (ECCI). Working with ECCI and the Scottish Council for Development and Industry, we attracted leaders and representatives from Scottish Government, business, public bodies, local authorities, practitioners, academic experts and NGOs, to discuss the key topics of Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use; Transport; Cities; Buildings; Industry; and Energy.

It was clear that there is a need for all responses to carbon reduction to be holistic; for clearly established baselines; to develop a universal ‘carbon comprehension’; for better linkages between local, regional, national and multinational action and legislation; and for more accountability for compliance and non-compliance.

There is great merit in being seen to be expert in something the whole world is signed up to, both from a moral standpoint, but also an economic one.

• fi nd ways in which Scotland can make the greatest impact to global emissions reductions

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A low-carbon economy: digitally driven Ross Martin, Chief Executive, Scottish Council for Development and Industry (SCDI)

In his poem The Road Not Taken, Robert Frost ponders an uncertain future at the outbreak of World War I, gently mocking the indecision of his English acquaintance, Edward Thomas, who later took up this challenge, went to war and soon perished on the battlefields of France. The key moment in this piece is when the reader arrives metaphorically at a fork in the road and is invited to stop to consider which route to take – the well-trodden path which heads off to a clear and recognisably dull horizon to the left, or the untrodden one to the right which appears to weave its way through the undergrowth, promising a bright new future.

This is where Scotland stands now, both economically and environmentally, except that these are not separate, mutually exclusive, paths to be chosen between; they are two interdependent characteristics of a common journey to sustainable growth. If we are to choose a positive future for Scotland’s economy, we must also shape a sure-footed future for our environment. These are not opposing forces – they are two sides of the same currency in which we must trade – but we have a huge task to mint the coinage in both people and place that will enable us to create the conditions for sustainable economic growth.

As Scotland has pondered its place in the world, first through the Independence Referendum and then more recently in stating its case regarding its future relationship with the rest of the European Union, SCDI has sought to develop discussion on the nature of our economy and how it can be made more resilient and sustainable. We have worked with both the Scottish and UK governments to help define, design and deliver that economy through investment in low-carbon infrastructure and the use of digital technology.

Piece by piece, project by project, we have sought to reshape Scotland’s economy by recognising that the environment is an equal partner and not a competing force.

As we operate across all sectors, and also in all the geographies of Scotland, SCDI is ideally placed to enable our membership, a cross-section of the private, public and social sectors of the economy, to engage both at the national level and also in the City Regions, helping to create sustainable growth. This involves working with a wide range of our members, current and potential(!), helping them to make the transition to a low-carbon economy, whether that’s through the design of low-carbon infrastructure or the deployment of revenue spending on changing the mind-sets and behaviours required to maximise the utilisation of it, once installed.

A key part of this work is being undertaken by bringing both the governments together, to better align the day-to-day spending of the public pound through the country’s revenue account with the huge injection of infrastructure investment spend coming through the range of capital financing mechanisms, led by the City Deal process and including Tax Increment Financing and Growth Accelerator Models. The integration of the fiscal and regulatory frameworks into which these various growth deals are being launched is key to the creation of an environment which will enable the creation of productive places.

By bringing this clear focus to the nation’s finances, with active engagement from across the economy, we are beginning to demonstrate how sustainable growth can be

generated, for example through the use of better connectivity in and between Scotland’s cities. Our Connectivity Commission has been considering how best Scotland can make improvements to the accessibility and affordability of our transport infrastructure, to create conditions conducive to driving sustainable economic growth. Similarly, our Square Go At Place project is bringing forward examples from both within and outwith Scotland where productive places are making a difference, often through innovation and internationalisation of their use.

Of course, key to much of the success we require in the utilisation of our infrastructure is how we deploy digital technology to improve productivity. Whether it’s in smart buildings, or demand-responsive road systems, the use of digital technology has a crucial role to play in making sure that we get the most out of our infrastructure, enabling us to work smarter, in a more agile manner, and also become more flexible to the changing needs and demands of a global economy, which itself is currently cloaked in uncertainty. By being true to who we are, and emphasising the strength of our proposition, based on being a premium quality place in which to do business and drive sustainable growth, we can truly, authentically trade in a currency in which the economy and the environment are indeed two sides of the same coin, which we need your assistance to help us mint.

“If we are to choose a positive future for Scotland’s economy, we must also shape a sure-footed future for our environment.”

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Carbon engagement and literacy David Bell, 2050 Group, and ‎Environmental Policy Officer, Scottish Environment Protection Agency; Dr Andy Kerr, Executive Director, Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation Bitesize sets out clear and practical ways in which Scotland’s businesses, public sector and civic society can take the reins of climate leadership, and is a significant contribution in two ways. Firstly, it ties insights from what needs to happen together with Scottish-specific data and expert knowledge on the all-important question of how to make it happen. And secondly, it challenges the business, public and civic sectors to view Scotland’s low-carbon trajectory through the lens of opportunity.

At the heart of the Bitesize initiative are two questions.

• How can we equip leaders and influencers (at all levels) in Scottish organisations to make more informed decisions in a period of transformative change?

• How can we support governments, businesses and communities to thrive in a society disrupted by technological, social and environmental changes?

These build on a wider movement that recognises the need to engage all levels of society to share ownership in actions that Scotland takes to lead the way. Both business and the public sector play a key role, since they have the potential for influencing across all levels of society with their ability to tackle issues, such as embedded carbon and behavioural choices, through changing what and how we consume. But the role of individual choice is also important, albeit shaped by our social and geographical contexts. During the Bitesize workshop, John Sturrock QC challenged participants on their individual role in supporting Scotland on its low-carbon journey. Too often, experience has shown us a substantial gap between our personal attitudes – what we would like to do – and our behaviours – what we actually do.

Leaving aside the necessary technical interventions that Bitesize highlights for concerted effort in Scotland in areas such as transport, industry and buildings, Bitesize outlines

five overarching principles: holistic thinking, clear and wellunderstood baselines, universal carbon comprehension, balance and fairness across levels of action, and accountability for compliance. Each one stretches beyond the reach of well-designed roadmaps and effective policies alone, and requires understanding and commitment at an individual and organisational level, most notably from Scotland’s business and public sector leaders. This speaks to both the people-centred need to engage, educate and empower that is core to the mission of Scotland’s 2050 Climate Group, and the executive education and collaborative approach of Scottish organisations such as the Centre for Sustainable Practice and Living (CSPL) and the Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation (ECCI).

To put it another way, there is a fundamental need for people to feel they have a part to play, they understand how to act, and they are fully equipped to do so. Hence this underscores the big-picture importance of programmes for engagement, education, and leadership development. In Scotland there is a range of innovative new and emerging programmes for delivering this, including the 2050 Group’s Young Leaders Development Programme; CSPL’s Sustainability Leadership Development Programme; online courses such as ECCI’s Delivering the Paris Agreement: Zero Carbon Policy and Practice; along with a professional development framework, the Association for Carbon Professionals, run by the organisations mentioned above. While these examples differ in target audience, the ultimate purpose remains the same: enabling people to be the drivers of change in Scotland.

Together with its overarching principles that build on personal development, the easily digestible summary of priority measures in Bitesize provides an excellent focus for programmes such as those mentioned above. Bitesize then acts as both a call to action and a guide to support learning programmes from multiple providers to different audiences, enhancing the impact they can have and acting to co-ordinate efforts in steering Scotland to a low-carbon future.

“There is a fundamental need for people to feel they have a part to play, they understand how to act, and they are fully equipped to do so.”

Carbon Literacy

B i t e s i z e S t e p s

• r ecognised course in carbon literacy and impacts, for all middle and senior managers • i nternationalisation of Scottish example through networks and contacts

8 WINTER 2016-17

Too much of a good thing: nitrogen, food waste and climate change Professor Dave Reay, Chair in Carbon Management, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh The revolution in global food production that nitrogen fertilisers and improved agricultural practices have delivered in the last half century has at least reduced the proportion of hungry or undernourished people in the world – down from a third in the 1960s to less than a quarter today. But population growth and stark inequalities in food supply between rich and poor nations have meant that the absolute number has changed little. Over 800 million people are still classed as undernourished, while each year in the UK and US alone a mass of food equivalent to the needs of some 80 million people is simply thrown away.

Reductions in food loss and waste may be a big help in addressing agriculture’s expanding climate change footprint, especially via increased nitrogen use efficiency. Food loss and wastage – the food that is produced for human consumption but that never makes it to our mouths – accounts for more than 30% of all the food production in the world each year.

This enormous wastage of food occurs for a wide range of reasons. In the developed world, food wastage tends to be most common in the ‘consumer phase’, with households throwing away around one third of the food they buy because it has gone past its use-by date or the servings are simply too large. Much of this food waste ends up in landfill sites where it can have a climate change penalty in terms of methane and nitrous oxide emissions as the waste decomposes. More important though, in terms of the climate and environmental impacts of this food wastage, are the implications it has for emissions in the ‘production phase’, ie back on the farm.

Every tonne of food that is wasted means another tonne of food needs to be produced, and with this extra production inevitably comes more nitrogen use and more nitrous oxide emissions. As some foods, such as meat and dairy products, are especially nitrogen-intensive, their wastage can incur very large penalties in terms of enhanced nitrous oxide emissions. For instance, in Europe the ‘nitrogen-footprint’ of beef production is estimated to be some 500g of reactive nitrogen per kilogram, while the footprint for production of most vegetables is only about 2g of nitrogen per kilogram. As such, interventions in the food supply chain that can reduce wastage of high-nitrogen foods like meat – improved labelling for instance – can generate an upstream ripple that radically reduces nitrogen use and losses in production. In a world where 800 million people are classed as undernourished, and where agricultural emissions are playing an ever more important role in driving climate change, the potential benefits of reducing food loss and waste have become a very

active area for researchers and policy makers.

Given the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector, strategies that reduce food loss and wastage may have great potential as effective tools in global climate change mitigation. Looking at the global food loss and wastage rate (around 30%) and the total amount of nitrous oxide that is emitted by agriculture each year (over three million tonnes of nitrogen per year), a cut in nitrous oxide emissions of nearly one million tonnes of nitrogen per year is possible through complete avoidance of food wastage.

This is equivalent to emissions savings of almost half a billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year (due to nitrous oxide being such a powerful greenhouse gas), or of taking around 100 million cars off the world’s roads. The true potential for such mitigation will inevitably vary depending on food type, production and location. Some food loss and wastage will always occur – the inedible components of meat products like bones for instance.

Achieving large cuts in avoidable food wastage in Scotland will require a ‘whole supply chain’ approach, including interventions focused on altering consumer behaviour. The latter may include encouragement towards smaller, more frequent food shops, improved information sharing (such as that provided by the excellent WRAP programme, see wrap. org.uk) and recommendations on portion sizes. Public and school education initiatives can be effective strategies for delivery of this information, as can collaboration of government with food retailers on issues such as ‘buy one, get one free’ promotions that can play a role in over-consumption and wastage, but ultimately what is needed is a ‘nitrogen budget’ for Scotland.

“Food loss and wastage accounts for more than 30% of all the food production in the world each year.”

Climate change is a complex global challenge that threatens every nation on Earth and that requires large cuts in emissions in every sector. For agriculture, cutting food loss and waste could be precisely the kind of ‘win-win’ strategy we need.

This article is adapted from Nitrogen and Climate Change (Reay, 2015) and draws on discussions at the Bitesize event 2016 (see page 5).

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Food waste Iain Gulland, Chief Executive, Zero Waste Scotland

Food waste is an issue that truly connects the local with the global in the fight against climate change. Many individually-small decisions made throughout the food supply chain, from point of production right through to our own consumption (or non-consumption!) and the consequences of that, all come together so that a third of the food we produce globally is wasted, resulting in needless emissions and other environmental impacts all along the way. This level of waste, combined with a growing population (more mouths to feed), changing diets (more resource-intensive stuff being eaten) and changes in land use (less land available for growing food), all combine to create a perfect storm of global magnitude.

In Scotland, we have set an ambitious target to reduce food waste by a third by 2025. That is world-leading in terms of ambition, and in the global context it is clear that tackling the scale of wasted food in our society is an economic, environmental and, indeed, moral imperative.

So the question we must all now answer is, “how will we achieve the target and what will we do to make it happen?”

Zero Waste Scotland’s role – as Scotland’s experts in this area – is to bring together all the different parties with a role to play and get the collective focus we need on the big challenges where they exist. We know what some of those big challenges are. The behaviours we need to change are interconnected and highly personal.

The supply chains we need to intervene in can be very complex. And there are gaps in data that could help inform where intervention will have the greatest impact.

The next important step for Scotland is to come together across different sectors and with varied expertise to identify and prioritise the measures that will make the biggest difference.

The Scottish Government’s Good Food Nation Bill, due in this parliament, provides an opportunity to take legislative action, where needed, to make an impact.

Other steps can be taken voluntarily and by making changes in the business environment that impact through the supply chain. We see this already happening through initiatives such as the Courtauld Commitment, so we are not trying to make this happen from a standing start.

Our opportunity is to fundamentally shift the social acceptability of wasting food. Because the big prize here is about driving the culture shift needed in businesses and at home that could deliver benefits beyond food waste into other areas of sustainable, low-carbon behaviour.

Many of the big global challenges we face all join up – on climate change, population growth, water and natural resource depletion, and habitat loss, for example – and our food system is at the heart of them all. If we crack the challenge of what a sustainable food system looks like and how we get there, we will be in a much stronger place as a global society. I know from talking to others around the world that the fact Scotland has taken the step of setting a bold target means that many others are watching what we do. That’s exciting, and I personally am relishing the prospect.

Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use •s ubsidy on food efficiency, not production • promotion of anaerobic digesters • budget for reactive nitrogen in Scotland

“In Scotland, we have set an ambitious target to reduce food waste by a third by 2025.“

B i t e s i z e S t e p s

10 WINTER 2016-17

Scotland’s high ambition Professor Jim Skea CBE, UK Committee on Climate Change

Tackling climate change means dramatically reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Scotland is at the forefront of the global battle against climate change and is taking a leading role in the UK, but still needs to do more to meet the ambitious targets it has set. Like the UK, Scotland has its own Climate Change Act – a pioneering piece of legislation that sets challenging targets for greenhouse gas emission cuts by 2050. The Scottish Act has the same long-term goal as the UK legislation (a reduction in emissions of at least 80% from 1990 to 2050) but it also includes the Scottish share of emissions from international aviation and shipping, and is more ambitious in the medium term. This faster intended progress comes thanks to greater ambition by successive Scottish governments, and also reflects the differences in the Scottish economy.

All political parties in Scotland have been clear about the priority they place on tackling climate change. The SNP has committed to introducing a new Climate Change Act, together with an even more ambitious target of reducing emissions by more than 50% by 2020. The Committee on Climate Change, on which I sit, will be advising the Scottish Government on aspects of a new Act in the course of the next year.

In terms of emissions reductions, Scotland performed better than the UK as a whole in 2014, the latest year for which emissions data is available for Scotland. Gross Scottish greenhouse gas emissions, including international aviation and shipping, fell 8.6% in 2014. This compares to a 7.3% fall for the UK as a whole. Since 1990, Scottish emissions have fallen nearly 40%, compared to nearly 33% at a UK level.

More good news has come with the increase in renewable electricity generation, and Scotland has made excellent progress in installing community and locally-owned energy projects, meeting its target, to generate 500MW of power annually, five years early.

An easy win for reducing energy consumption and cutting emissions is making buildings more efficient to heat, predominantly through better insulation. To this end, Scotland has made improved energy efficiency in all buildings a National Infrastructure Priority. Greenhouse gas emissions from waste are also a contributor to global warming and Scotland has made good progress here, with emissions falling 13% in 2014. The Government has also introduced a ‘circular economy’ strategy (to encourage the design of recyclable and reusable products) and has set a target to reduce Scottish food waste.

The hard yards So there is plenty of good news, but to meet Scotland’s high ambition and tighter targets beyond 2020, even more effort will be required. While emissions have fallen by an average of 3.3% per year since 2009, this has been mostly due to progress in electricity generation thanks to reduced use of coal and increased use of renewable electricity.

Scottish emissions from transport have barely fallen since 1990 and this area needs to improve. Although vehicles have become more efficient, this has been offset by increased demand for travel as the economy has grown and fuel prices have fallen. Low-emission electric vehicle sales are increasing, but the Scottish share of UK electric vehicle sales is below the UK average.

Emission reductions from agriculture and land use have also been slow. Planting trees is a way of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and reducing emissions, but planting rates have been falling and in 2014 only 7,300 hectares were planted against a target of 10,000 hectares per year. There is also much further to go to switch buildings from fossil fuel heat sources (predominantly gas) to low-carbon technologies, such as heat pumps.

Scotland is making progress however, and the priority that it places on tackling climate change can lead to other benefits.

Lower emissions can lead to improved air quality and better health, increased efficiency can result in lower fuel bills and help to alleviate fuel poverty, improved land management can aid the preservation of Scottish ecosystems and biodiversity, and taking a leading role on climate change can provide local jobs and services, and help the Scottish economy grow.

The world’s governments have just met in Marrakech, one year after the landmark Paris climate conference. The aims of the Paris Agreement – to limit the rise in global temperature to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to hold it to 1.5°C – are more ambitious than Scotland’s target for 2050, which aims to limit temperature rise to around 2°C. Scotland’s high ambition to 2020 and 2030 helps to support the aims of Paris. But the essential work to deliver those targets is only just beginning.

“Scotland is at the forefront of the global battle against climate change.”

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Preparing the ground for climate change Professor Lord John Krebs FRS, Chair, Adaptation Sub-Committee, UK Committee on Climate Change

In September I had the pleasure of visiting the Scottish Parliament to answer MSPs’ questions about how prepared Scotland is for the challenges of climate change. During the session, my colleagues from the Committee on Climate Change and I explained the findings of our first independent assessment of the Scottish Government’s ‘adaptation’ plans.

to improve infrastructure performance, but the authorities involved couldn’t tell us whether what they are doing is making a difference. Our evaluation found that more data needs to be collected and published to make it clear how much progress in tackling vulnerabilities is really being made.

The good news is that Scotland is taking climate change very seriously in terms of both tackling the causes (by reducing its greenhouse gas emissions) and preparing for the effects. To that end, the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme was published in 2014, taking the sensible approach of presenting policies and adaptation plans into three key areas where climate change will have an impact: the natural environment, buildings and infrastructure, and society.

Scottish Ministers asked the Committee on Climate Change to evaluate the programme. It is these findings, briefly outlined below, that we were discussing with MSPs.

Steps are being taken in Scotland to manage the risks from extreme weather to people and the health and social care system. All NHS Scotland organisations have considered the risks from climate change, and emergency plans cover a range of weather-related risks. There are also initiatives aimed at increasing public awareness of extreme weather including as a result of climate change. However, there are many areas where little information is being collected, such as the impact severe weather has on key healthcare facilities like hospitals and care homes, and how episodes of flooding affect people’s long-term health and well-being. The need for increased assessment and monitoring was a key message we gave to MSPs.

Natural environment Scotland has ambitious plans in place to enhance the resilience of its natural environment and reduce its vulnerability to climate change. Important activities include the restoration of degraded peatlands and native woodlands, and the widespread uptake by farmers in Scotland of agrienvironment schemes. In 2007, 76% of Scotland’s most prized natural sites were in a favourable condition, a figure that has improved to 80% in 2016, and there have also been improvements in the ecological status of Scotland’s lochs and estuaries. This is important because a healthy natural environment will be more resilient than a degraded one to the changes in climate we are beginning to see and can expect more of in future. Unfortunately, other trends are going in the wrong direction, with key species of birds and butterflies in long-term decline, and invasive species, pests and diseases spreading. A warmer, wetter climate in Scotland will create the conditions for more invasive species to take hold. So we need to see more action to relieve the deep-seated pressures on the natural environment, caused by intensive agriculture and other industries, and urban development.

Buildings and infrastructure networks Climate change is expected to lead to more extreme weather and more frequent widespread flooding like we saw last winter. Storms Desmond, Eva and Frank reminded us that many towns and cities in Scotland are located in the floodplain, with 110,000 homes at risk from river flooding or coastal inundation. This situation is made worse by patterns of development leading to an increase in impermeable surfacing in urban areas. With heavier bursts of rain, as are already being detected with climate change, the ageing drainage networks will be overwhelmed more often. Infrastructure such as energy transmission networks, roads and railways are also prone to fail in severe weather, and failures in one network can quite quickly cascade and affect others. Action is being taken to tackle flood risk and The UK Committee on Climate Change (www.theccc.org. uk) is an independent statutory body established under the Climate Change Act (2008) to advise the UK Government and devolved administrations on setting and meeting carbon budgets, and to report on progress in preparing for the impacts of climate change.

Society

“The Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme is a positive first step in preparing for the changes in climate already being observed.”

Overall, the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme is a positive first step in preparing for the changes in climate already being observed. Programmes being funded such as Adaptation Scotland are important to build public awareness and encourage action to be taken. While the Scottish Government and local authorities have crucial roles to play, adapting to climate change is not solely their responsibility.

There is a wider need for business, local communities and individual households to take action if we are to rise to the challenge.

• more effort on transport • more effort on agriculture

U K C C C S U G G ESTI O N S

• more effort on buildings efficiency and heat • more protection of the natural environment • storm- / flood-proofing of buildings and infrastructure

12 WINTER 2016-17

Transport and mobility Dr George Hazel OBE

Over the last six to ten years there has been a fundamental shift in transport, driven by market demand for personalised services, which has changed transport from the traditional style of ‘if you want to catch the bus, you turn up when it turns up’ to ‘I want door-to-door service’. People want a seamless service, a customer-focused service, and value. That demand takes transport away from an operational model to a retail model. This transformational process has in turn brought in non-transport people, ‘aggregators’ such as Airbnb and Skyscanner, who are disrupting the service model and are now between the owner and the customer: they manage and organise it all for you.

“I think that Scotland is ideally placed to lead the way in this whole area of ‘mobility-as-a-service’.”

In the future, the view is that these aggregators will present us with a ‘mobility package’, similar to what you would get for your mobile phone, each month. That’s interesting because it is building the market from the bottom up, not the top down. Whereas before, in the transport industry, we would have a strategic plan to convince people to walk or cycle or take public transport, now because transport companies and aggregators are learning about me like any retailer they can tailor incentives and loyalty programmes to nudge my behaviour. The likelihood is that this will be used for commercial purposes to sell me value-added services, but it could also be used to incentivise me to walk or cycle more.

The big question at the moment is, as this is being driven by global private companies, will they take up the social and environmental targets linked to transport? Maybe. The challenge is how to combine global business strategy with governments’ long-term environmental strategy and planning.

Looking around the world, people are talking about it but nobody is doing it, nobody knows how to do it, and that is

going to be the major challenge – bringing the two together.

I think that Scotland is ideally placed to lead the way in this whole area of ‘mobility-as-a-service’. There is an opportunity to use the system to incentivise people to buy or use lowenergy vehicles. There is a big trend, especially amongst younger people, away from ownership to sharing. A lot of younger people don’t have a driving licence, so there is a social change going on that can be used to help deliver environmental and social benefits.

To be able to provide a full mobility-as-a-service system, you need to understand energy, IT, ICT, and data diagnostics.

Scotland is world-class in all of these things; it is also the right size, it has seven differently-sized cities, it has rural areas and deep rural areas, and it has the islands. From my point of view, Scotland could be putting itself forward as a place to come and test all of these products and to ‘de-risk’ the services, using Scottish companies to do it. In a refresh of their strategy, the Scottish Government needs to be building this in and working with industries, NGOs and academic bodies to profile Scotland as a place that understands the threats and opportunities associated with mobility-as-a-service, and provides people around the world with the facilities to come and see how it is done. That in turn opens up the market for our universities and companies to go across the world and sell the same processes. The Government is supportive, they have very ambitious targets; we just need to make sure that that’s plugged in, which it isn’t at the moment. As the Government refreshes the transport strategy, we need to ensure that they understand the opportunities and they get those industry, funding body, university and NGO partnerships built to deliver it in the future – it’s a great opportunity.

At Bitesize, we talked about all of this. We were saying the Government needs to adopt and understand mobility-as-aservice. At the moment, it is across about four governmental departments, so there needs to be some kind of task force to do that, but that will need an investment fund to kick-start trial projects, to test across Scotland in rural, high-income and low-income areas. The Government will need to make sure that the system includes social, environmental and economic benefits, whilst helping companies do that as well.

Within our Transport group at Bitesize, we talked about longterm funding, and a whole series of other areas that have to be built in to that, like electric vehicles and charging points that the Government needs to consider as well. We have to get real: there has been a lot of talk and a lot of chatter, but we have to get around to doing it with demonstration projects at scale across Scotland, in bitesize pieces if you will. I think that’s the next stage.

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Plugging in to the future Mike Robinson, Chief Executive, RSGS

Every scenario I have read that describes a low-carbon future assumes that we can decarbonise electricity production and run most of our energy needs from electricity. Top of the list of things that are expected to become almost entirely driven by electricity is our transport. Globally, transport is the one sector that keeps showing growth in emissions; more of us travel more often, and further, than ever before.

In Scotland there were 2.7 million road vehicles in 2012. To see the necessary transition to electric vehicles, even over 20 years (and many would like to see it in less than ten), would require c10,000 petrol or diesel vehicles a month to be taken off the road and replaced with electric. In 2012, of the 216,400 new vehicles registered in Scotland, 214,400 were petrol or diesel, 1,100 were hybrid, and only 900 were purely electric, so there is some way to go.

The electric vehicle market in Scotland Electric Vehicle Association Scotland (EVAS) EVAS was set up in 2012 by a small group of electric vehicle (EV) enthusiasts and now has a membership of c450. It is a nonpolitical self-funded group whose main aim is the promotion of EVs in Scotland.

The good news EV uptake in Scotland has been increasing, with c1,500 EVs sold in 2016. The public charging network has increased dramatically too, and there are now c170 rapid charger units capable of charging the typical EV from 20% to 80% in under 30 minutes.

Public awareness of the benefits of driving an EV is also increasing.

Which? magazine’s 2015 user satisfaction survey gave the Nissan Leaf the highest satisfaction rating of any car (96%). Many new mainstream EV models have been introduced, with the latest providing a ‘real-world’ range of 170-180 miles; further new models with single-charge ranges of 220-250 miles will be introduced in 2017. Mid-size trucks with payloads of 26T and ranges of 125 miles are available, as well as smaller-capacity local vans.

The not-so-good news EV uptake in Scotland is roughly half that of the rest of the UK, and only 1/71 that in Norway (with roughly the same population as Scotland). In March 2016, Norway’s EV sales were 33% of all new car sales, and they now have some 125,000 EVs on their roads.

The governments of many EU countries have realised the need to dramatically increase the electrification of their transport, for both climate and localised pollution purposes. Norway, Holland and Denmark have set targets for the majority of new vehicle sales to be EV by 2022-25; the UK and Scottish Governments are instead aiming for 2040-50 as suitable target dates.

Transport • i ntegration of mobility-as-a-service into National Transport Strategy

B i t e s i z e S t e p s

• greater transport integration • l arge-scale demonstration projects / trials at Eurocentral (just off the M8) / Perth / Stirling • more incentives for uptake of EVs, and accelerated targets •d emand management and modal shift measures such as lower speed limits

How can we increase EV uptake in Scotland?

We would like to see: • increased public awareness of the benefits of EV ownership, eg more advertising, longer-term test drives, leadership from government driving EVs, more EV taxi operators; • increased public recharging infrastructure, with the emphasis on multi-rapid ‘hubs’ outside cities on main trunk routes, plus many more low-power charging posts in towns and cities; • ‘Zero-Emission Zones’ in our major cities and towns within the next five years; • many more ‘Park and Rides’ serviced by pure EV buses; • a new ‘scrappage scheme’ for older diesels, the worst polluters.

A personal view Douglas Robertson, Chair, EVAS My own family’s experience of leasing two Nissan Leafs since 2013, and having driven 45,000 miles in them since, is typical of all EV owners/drivers: we really would not want to go back to driving an internal combustion engine vehicle because the EV driving experience is so much smoother and more of a pleasure. The EV maximum torque from a stand-still, and indeed throughout the speed range, means joining fast-moving traffic is so much easier and overtaking is effortless.

Total lifetime costs, certainly by leasing the vehicles (initial deposit, monthly PCP payments, insurance, maintenance and servicing, fuel), can be shown to be c60% or less than the equivalent petrol or diesel car (depending on the EV model and time of lease). Approaching 90% of all our mileage is provided by our ‘home charger’ using off-peak night rates of c8p/kWh, making our fuel costs less than 2p/mile.

“We really would not want to go back to driving an internal combustion engine vehicle.”

14 WINTER 2016-17

RSGS Shackleton Medal 2016: the Paris Agreement Mike Robinson, Chief Executive, RSGS

The Shackleton Medal, awarded for leadership and citizenship in a geographical field, was in 2016 jointly awarded to three of the critical actors who helped achieve a climate deal at the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris: Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, the Peruvian Environment Minister and an environmental lawyer who chaired the 2014 conference in Lima and prepared much of the groundwork which led to Paris; Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, who dedicated herself for six years after the 2009 conference in Copenhagen to rebuilding the global climate change negotiating process based on fairness, transparency and collaboration; and Laurent Fabius, France’s youngest Prime Minister (1984-86) and the current President of France’s Constitutional Council, who was Chair of the Paris conference.

In Paris, despite long and late negotiations lasting the entire fortnight, it came down to the team chaired by M Fabius to pull victory from the jaws of defeat, as a last-minute concern from the US and Chinese delegations threatened to undermine the deal. But through strong leadership, vision and no-nonsense diplomacy, a deal was done. On 12th December 2015, at 7.16pm, two hours later than originally planned, Laurent Fabius returned to the stage, flanked by Christiana Figueres, Laurence Tubiana and other high-ranking UN officials. The last-minute compromises had been resolved, he said. When he finally brought the green-topped gavel down on the final agreement, it looked as if his hand was visibly shaking with emotion. Suddenly everyone was on their feet.

The room of international delegates erupted with cheers and relief, and the sense that history had been made was palpable. It will have repercussions for many years.

The Paris Agreement does not in itself solve the climate crisis, of course. But it is easily the most significant global deal of any kind to date. So despite the enormity of the task, the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) agreed the Paris document, recognising not only the need to limit climate change to less than a 2°C threshold, but further acknowledging that a 1.5°C threshold was preferable and safer still. Diplomatically it was a huge success. Climate talk

is full of phrases about tipping points – maybe this moment will come to mark a tipping point away from fossil fuels and towards a new more sustainable future. Only time will tell.

But it is thanks in particular to the groundwork laid so ably

by Manuel Pulgar-Vidal in Lima, to Christiana Figueres’s knowledge, commitment and passion, and to Laurent Fabius’s brilliant and delicate negotiation skills that this agreement happened at all, and that it stands out as a shining example of international diplomacy on what is surely the most critical geographical issue of our generation.

An interview with Laurent Fabius What did it take to put the Paris Agreement together, and why do you think you succeeded where others failed?

Putting together the Paris Agreement was not an easy job because we had to get agreement from 195 countries with different positions, and before we started the conference it was a mess. However, we have been lucky enough to get an agreement, and a precise and very ambitious agreement at that. I think the planets aligned for us and there were a few reasons for that.

Firstly, there has been tremendous work by scientists who have shown that climate change is a real problem and have therefore increased the public’s awareness. Secondly, the world’s largest polluters and CO2 emitters – China, the US and others – have drastically changed their attitudes; whereas before they were very reluctant, now they have understood that they have to change.

And finally, society in general has changed: now businesses are aware of the enormous problems; churches, local councils, NGOs and ordinary citizens are all aware and doing their bit to make positive changes. The Paris Agreement capitalised on these three shifts in attitude, but now we have to ratify the Agreement and deliver it.

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What needs to be done to ratify the Paris Agreement?

The Paris Agreement has to be ratified by at least 55 countries representing 55% of CO2 emissions. There is also a great deal of work to do in terms of implementing the financial and technological commitments that were made during the Paris COP and as part of the Paris Agreement.

We also need to make sure that there is the will, capability and resources to implement the required actions at all levels of society, from businesses to local councils and even at an individual level.

It is crucial that we act on the Paris Agreement now. This is not an issue that can be dealt with in 50 years – we must act today. We have to understand that if we don’t act on our commitments in Paris, the oceans will rise, islands will be destroyed, there will be huge hurricanes and droughts, there will be massive implications for worldwide health, and we will see huge levels of migration and increased security issues.

This is not a small issue – it is a major problem for mankind.

“This is not an issue that can be dealt with in 50 years – we must act today.”

How do you think the Paris Agreement has been received around the world?

I think the public has largely understood what needs to be done but I think we have to get organised, and I must say that Scotland is doing pretty well. When I discussed it with the First Minister, I could see that Scotland is taking initiatives and a lot of steps in the right direction; it is important to be ambitious. We have to lead by example and show the rest of the world that it is possible, that in Europe there are countries and regions that are acting, because some countries, especially poorer countries, are still reluctant.

They are still focusing on the finance and where the technology is, and some individuals are still hesitating. They don’t see the positive aspects, they see the costs, but we have to show that green growth is bringing new jobs and we have to show that the countries which are not moving in the right direction will be penalised. They will be lagging behind and they will not be in a position to compete. In Europe we are investing in new technology – wind, solar and wave – to see how we can save energy, and the co-operation between businesses and the public is excellent. Therefore the positive examples that can be given by European countries, regions, towns, etc are very important.

Do you feel positively that the Agreement can be ratified?

Sometimes I am asked, “can we really solve the problem?” and I always answer that yes we can solve the problem; we have the elements, we have the technology, but now it is a question of political will. One of my friends often says, “but there must be a plan B?” My response is, there is no plan B because there is no planet B. It is as simple as that.

It’s a duty for all of us, from political leaders to individuals, to help deliver the Paris Agreement. If we don’t do that, then our children and grandchildren will not be able to live in a decent way.

Laurent Fabius was presented with the RSGS Shackleton Medal at an event at Edinburgh Castle in September 2016, hosted

by Roseanna Cunningham MSP, Cabinet Secretary for Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform.

The Paris Agreement was ratified on 4th November 2016, and at the time of going to print had been joined by 113 countries representing 79% of emissions. It recognised the desire to avoid a 1.5°C increase in global average temperature, and the urgency with which the world needs to act.

16 WINTER 2016-17

Low-carbon cities and settlements Terri Vogt, Sustainable Energy Action Plan Programme Manager, Aberdeen City Council

Cities are the powerhouse of country economies. They account for a significant proportion of the population, jobs and economic output. As such, decision making at city or local authority level can have a significant impact on carbon emissions. The move to a low-carbon economy is dependent on cities and local authorities taking leadership in supporting this transition, which presents some significant challenges, in particular around decision making, energy management and citizen engagement.

Time and again the role of leadership in driving transition has been demonstrated. At present there is limited incentive for local authorities and city leaders to make carbon central to decision-making processes. Although every local authority in Scotland is likely to have some commitment to reducing carbon supported by examples of local activity, we are still a long way from carbon being a central consideration of all decision making. This will be necessary to drive the transition required. This is due in part to lack of accountability, in part to the complexity of understanding cross-sectoral impacts, and in part to the lack of central policy necessary to drive change. This is reinforced by substantial decision-making tools relating to areas such as transport, infrastructure and the City Deal incorporating no, or limited, consideration of the environmental impacts of decision making.

To manage and design our cities and settlements to significantly reduce carbon emissions in the future, we need to evolve decision-making models to fully evaluate the environmental costs and benefits of different actions.

If this does not take place, we will continue to perpetuate decision making that focuses on infrastructure development that supports economic benefits as we currently measure them, without fully evaluating environmental costs and benefits. Softer decision making also needs to fully integrate consideration of the impacts on carbon emissions, and it should be transparent as to how these considerations are made.

In addition to this, the management of carbon emissions is complex and requires a wider systems approach to decision making, rather than the compartmentalised decision making that tends to take place at the moment. The growing complexity of the energy market, for example, has led to the Scottish Government putting together an Energy Strategy for Scotland. This will seek to link the areas of energy generation, demand and transport, and look at the role of areas such as energy storage for the future. The natural progression from a national strategy will be to translate the strategy requirements to local level. This is, however, a new area for local authorities, and will present considerable challenges in terms of both skills and resourcing. This needs to be recognised in the implementation process, and greater support and accountability need to be made available at local level.

This support should seek to improve the sharing of experience both locally within Scotland and beyond. Some cities in Europe have been able to demonstrate the benefits of low-carbon infrastructure development. Scotland is not a large place, and there is the opportunity to improve how we share experience in relation to strategy development as well as learning from what is taking place elsewhere. To be of

real value, this sharing of information needs to be based on greater trust and willingness to share problems and failures – a difficult thing to do within a politically-driven context.

The role of the citizen is also important in driving reductions in carbon emissions within cities. There are a growing number of community energy schemes within Scotland, where the Scottish Government target for generation of energy by the community has been exceeded. Many of these schemes have been crowd-funded, moving away from traditional views on project financing, further empowering local communities.

Community empowerment in energy will be a core theme of the Scottish Government’s Energy Strategy. There remain, however, barriers to delivering community energy schemes on a wider basis, and an important step forward needs to be to identify the current blockages in decision making and how they can be overcome. We should also be building on the experience and knowledge developed in relation to community energy schemes, to identify how citizen engagement can be harnessed in wider areas relating to reducing carbon emissions, such as food, behaviours and retrofitting.

What is clear is that citizens and settlements have a fundamental role to play in driving down carbon emissions, and there are some fundamental building blocks that have started to appear. Progress will be delivered through a combination of improved decision making supported by wider citizen engagement. Key areas to be addressed going forward include local accountability for reducing emissions, decision making that fully incorporates and evaluates environmental impacts, the availability of wider-ranging skills and resource at local level, and clearer local strategies going forward.

“We need to evolve decisionmaking models to fully evaluate the environmental costs and benefits of different actions.”

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Enlightened Edinburgh Andrew Burns, Council Leader, The City of Edinburgh Council

Scotland’s cities are growing and Edinburgh is no exception. In fact our population is projected to grow by 24% by 2037, the most of any city in Scotland. Whilst this can be a challenge to deliver high-quality services, it also provides an opportunity, with a high population density, to reduce emissions per person.

Edinburgh’s Sustainable Energy Action Plan (SEAP) aims to deliver a 42% reduction in emissions from energy use and generation. This is the most ambitious target of any UK city that has subscribed to the Covenant of Mayors programme. The challenge for the city is to deliver on this stretching target. We are working with a number of key partners, including some of the largest employers in the city, and Edinburgh’s universities, and encouraging all residents and workers to play their part in reducing emissions.

Edinburgh has reduced emissions over the period 2005 to 2014 by 26.6% or 877 ktCO2. This compares favourably with Scotland as a whole, which reduced emissions by 24.7% over the same period. Significantly, the population has increased by 9.6% as emissions have decreased (-26.6%), which means that the per capita emissions over the period have fallen by 33.3%.

The Council, in seeking to make our city more liveable, has invested to encourage this. We have a commitment to spend 9% of our transport budget on cycling projects, and are also investing in walking infrastructure, to continually improve conditions for pedestrians and cyclists. In addition, through our Scottish Government-funded Smarter Choices, Smarter Places programme, we are encouraging people to make more informed travel decisions through a range of initiatives. These include engaging with large employers across the city to encourage more walking and cycling to work; offering free guided walks and cycle rides to the public; and offering more information to help with planning journeys via sustainable and active modes of transport, particularly on our web pages. This has been paying off and the most recent Transport Scotland figures show that in 2015 we had almost a third of people walking or cycling to work in Edinburgh.

“Edinburgh’s Sustainable Energy Action Plan aims to deliver a 42% reduction in emissions from energy use and generation.”

The Council is also looking to continue to drive value from delivering energy services, and has recently established a wholly-owned energy services company, Energy for Edinburgh, which held its inaugural meeting of the Board in October. The company aims to reduce carbon, deliver affordable energy (alleviating fuel poverty) and encourage wider community benefits.

We are encouraging low-carbon transport, and have a programme in place to increase the amount of publicly accessible electric vehicle charging infrastructure at key locations across the city.

To date, charging infrastructure in Edinburgh has increased from eight charging heads in 2013 to 110 in 2016 (with more planned over the next six months). In partnership with the University of Edinburgh, we are also progressing with a funding bid to install a series of rapid charging hubs across the city to support the uptake of ultra-low-emission taxis. This will have a significant impact on air quality and road transport emissions, and will put Edinburgh on the map as a leading city in the decarbonisation of road transport.

A number of further opportunities have been identified for the creation of district heating networks across the city. This has been informed using the Scotland Heat Map and working with partners to develop economically viable opportunities, which lower carbon emissions. We are also progressing opportunities

for installing renewable technologies, including a micro-hydro proposal and ground source heat pumps in one of Edinburgh’s parks.

Edinburgh is also home to the UK’s largest community-owned urban renewables scheme. The scheme, run by the Edinburgh Community Solar Cooperative, has installed solar panels on 24 of Edinburgh’s schools, community and leisure centres. The project will enable the creation of a community fund, estimated to be approximately £1 million over the life of the project.

Finally, delivering low-carbon projects such as the above offers up opportunities for employment. The Council is looking to identify what the low-carbon economy will look like as part of its Low Carbon Jobs and Investment Framework to support the sector, ensuring that residents have the skills required, businesses are not limited in their growth, and low-carbon investors are encouraged to Edinburgh from green supply chains.

Edinburgh has always been an enlightened city. With the plans we have in place and the resources we have in this great city, our future enlightenment will be lower in carbon emissions.

Cities •c arbon to be central to all decision making

B i t e s i z e S t e p s

•e nergy strategy / energy masterplans for Scotland / cities / towns / communities • city-wide energy meter plans

18 WINTER 2016-17

Old and new ideas inform the climate debate Professor Roy Thompson FRSE, School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh

Two pioneering, historic Scots have helped inform a possible economic solution to the very modern problem of how to prevent catastrophic climate change. Work published in Anthropocene Review draws on ideas of the Scottish scientist James Croll and the philosopher and economist Adam Smith.

Croll, from Perthshire, was a product of the Highland Clearances. He was largely a self-educated man. After overcoming much adversity he became a janitor at Anderson College, Glasgow and eventually a Fellow of the Royal Society.

Access to books allowed him to create a theory of climate change. This remarkable man, and revolutioniser of scientific thought, was the first person to identify positive feedbacks in the Earth system, explaining how “in regard to… climate, cause and effect mutually react so as to strengthen each other.”

Adam Smith, from Fife, became part of the brilliant intellectual circle of the Scottish Enlightenment. In his great 18th century work The Wealth of Nations, which still lies at the heart of economics, he famously developed his ideas on supply and demand and free trade. But Adam Smith was not a strict, inflexible promoter of free enterprise. He did not believe that an economy free from government interference was always good, or always bad. Rather, he perceived that self-interest and competition were sometimes treacherous to the public interest, and so favoured allowing governments to practise some measure of control according to circumstance.

novel findings, these books provide a unique first mapping of ocean temperatures. Today a vast armada of autonomous, robotic probes populates the oceanic realm. Every ten days each probe surfaces and ‘emails’ its latest measurements to a global datacentre in France. Millions of temperature profiles allow today’s oceans to be compared with the Challenger oceans. Different layers are found to have warmed by up to 0.6°C, thereby providing a direct, observation-based estimate of that much sought-after climate change quantity – Earth’s energy imbalance.

The new work fuses together climate time-series, such as that provided by the Challenger expedition, with atmospheric data, especially greenhouse gas and aerosol measurements, and with econometric forecasts, based on past behaviour of population, growth and energy consumption. It shows that, without a clear shift in existing climate-economic policies and a reduction of our surging fossil-fuel emissions, temperatures and sea levels are likely to continue to rise strongly this century.

Finally, it suggests that a decades-old tax system would permit a balance to be struck between the conflicting needs of limiting the impact of man-made greenhouse gas emissions and supporting the economy. An adjustment to the levy system, first devised by the English economist Arthur Pigou in the 1920s, is found to offer a viable way forward. The key adjustment is for all revenues from a carbon tax to be recycled directly to households.

Such a system, known as a feebate, has been successfully introduced in British Columbia, Canada. Sellers are stimulated to create greener technologies, so avoiding high carbon taxes. Householders respond by reducing their carbon consumption. But in addition, householders create growth in nascent economic sectors when spending their new carbon allowance. Thus stoutly adopting Pigouvian economics, especially by applying a carbon feebate, is suggested as providing the best way to encourage a change in behaviour of both the public and companies, and so help foster Adam Smith’s vision of “bringing to mankind maximum happiness and prosperity.”

“Work published in Anthropocene Review draws on ideas of the Scottish scientist James Croll and the philosopher and economist Adam Smith.”

My new climate-economics model combines the ideas of these two Scots by incorporating Croll’s feedbacks and Smith’s behavioural economics.

The model embeds an energy balance scheme within an economic cost-benefit analysis. An appealing aspect of the approach is its empirical emphasis.

It endeavours to maximize the value of historical data by reducing the number of underlying assumptions and poorly constrained parameters. A fascinating example of the worth of bygone data stems from Croll’s very prescient surmise that investigations of the ocean depth would turn out to be critical for gaining a better understanding of climate change.

In 1872 the HMS Challenger expedition, devised by Wyville Thomson of Edinburgh University, set sail for the first-ever global scientific survey of the deep sea. For four years Challenger circumnavigated the world, criss-crossing all the great ocean basins and taking systematic scientific readings at 362 equally spaced locations. Subsequently, 50 massive reports were prepared and published from the Challenger office in Queen Street, Edinburgh. Amidst a large number of

FURTHER READING

Thompson R (2016) Whither climate change post-Paris?

(Anthropocene Review, first published on 31 October 2016 as doi:10.1177/2053019616676607)

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Low-carbon finance: opportunities and challenges Dr Andy Kerr, Executive Director, Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation; John Watt, Senior Partner, Annequin Associates

Bitesize sets out clear priorities for Scotland to take its next steps in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A critical enabler of many of the actions – around energy systems, energy efficiency in buildings, energy and energy-efficient transport infrastructure – is finance. Indeed, internationally, the importance of finding effective ways of unlocking finance and investment into low- or zero-carbon infrastructure, and of redirecting capital flows away from fossil fuel activities, is now widely recognised. We also need to recognise changes in the way people live and work. Increasing digitalisation and remote working will change the patterns of energy demand.

In Scotland, we have the opportunity to move towards more localised generation models to support this changing environment, and this will require us to use both our local financial capabilities and our strong international connections. Where our funding experts have traditionally focused on what are perceived to be typically safe investments in money-market instruments, government bonds and large company equity stakes, along with a more recent focus in infrastructure funds, the opportunity exists to invest in the substantial market for energy and environmental infrastructure.

However, much of this infrastructure needs to be supported, at least initially, through public sector investment or contractual commitments. To fill this gap, various public and private initiatives across Scotland have sought to help bring these two communities together, by helping project developers prepare their business case with an understanding of the expectations of investors, and helping investors engage early with emerging projects to shape the financial case to meet external requirements. The growth in local energy projects, led by communities, local authorities or businesses, and approaches to opening up new public sector funding at a time of tight budget constraints, have seen such activities put into practice across Scotland. There is still much to do in this regard to develop investment-grade projects, which may mean more aggregation of projects to build scale, and also a recognition that returns may be lower but the social and environmental impacts are worth this reduction.

The impacts of climate change on business supply chains, and the impacts of government regulations designed to mitigate against climate change (such as a carbon price) or air pollution (such as closing polluting power stations) on the business model of global companies, mean that investors are increasingly aware of the value of their investments at risk. Investors have a fiduciary duty towards fund beneficiaries, so it is not unusual now to see pension funds advocating significant emission reductions or environmental management globally to manage their concerns about nonfinancial risks.

This has resulted in a rapid rise in financial service companies offering tools and services that help investment managers and asset owners (such as public sector or university pension funds) to decide more transparently about their investments. Companies around the world are also being encouraged to develop consistent climate-related financial and non-financial risk disclosures for use by investors, lenders, insurers and other stakeholders. A global Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, chaired by Michael Bloomberg, will report in December 2016, with the aim of influencing the emerging EU Directive on Non-Financial Reporting and other regulatory frameworks.

In Scotland, we have both leading financial service expertise and leading expertise in data, data analytics and digital technologies, that could work together to effectively develop this ‘fin-tech’ sector through supporting non-financial reporting and analysis. This would create a leading European cluster of companies and know-how that will both help Scotland economically, given the global growth markets in this space, and positively help influence global flows of finance and investment into low- and zero-carbon assets around the world.

The second opportunity for Scotland to support finance and investment is to continue its development of innovative financing models that unlock and support inward investment to help Scotland deliver its ambitious low-carbon targets. The challenge is often not finding the funding itself – there is plenty of finance looking for a good home – but matching the risk appetite and scale-expectations of funders to appropriate projects, assets and business plans. At a meeting of financiers, it is common to hear the complaint that there are not many good ‘ready-to-go’ projects to invest in. At an equivalent meeting of project developers, it is common to hear the converse: “there are lots of projects, but not enough funders wanting to fund my type of project”.

“The importance of finding effective ways of unlocking finance and investment into low- or zero-carbon infrastructure is now widely recognised.”

The ‘know-how’ exists within the country to support Scotland’s energy efficiency plans – to improve the quality of homes and buildings across the country – and to deliver its ambitions around increasingly affordable, local energy systems. However, we need to create the environment in which productive conversations can take place between the public and private sectors to achieve this. Bitesize should be a key facilitator of this conversation to identify and address the blockages.

Collaboration •m ore cross-sectoral communication and collaboration

B i t e s i z e S t e p s

•m ore horizontal integration between sectors, and vertical integration within sectors

20 WINTER 2016-17

Building a warmer future Elizabeth Leighton, The Existing Homes Alliance Scotland; Liz Marquis, Director, Energy Agency South West Scotland

The buildings sector has much to offer in meeting Scotland’s ambitious climate change targets. Innovative technologies mean that both new and existing buildings can be warm, healthy, affordable to heat, and even generate and store energy. Not only does this reduce climate emissions, it also helps eradicate fuel poverty, and saves on fuel bills for home owners, tenants and businesses.

The Scottish Government’s commitment to making the energy efficiency of Scotland’s buildings a National Infrastructure Priority presents a rare opportunity to transform the building sector and realise this vision. It will also stimulate growth by creating jobs spread around Scotland throughout the supply chain.

The Built Environment workshop at the Bitesize conference (covering domestic and industrial buildings, new build and retrofit) centred on the priorities for the building sector to achieve significant emission reduction targets in Scotland.

The discussion amongst business, community, environmental and social leaders revealed a high level of awareness of the impacts that poor energy performance in buildings can have on people’s lives right now in terms of health, well-being, and welfare, as well as the longer-term consequences of climate change. This agenda also chimes well with the Scottish Government’s objectives around social justice and tackling poverty.

The mix of professionals from private and public organisations, academia and advisory bodies showed a real passion and commitment to identify solutions to current challenges and assist with future strategic planning. Many of the group represented the construction and insulation industry, and had very direct experience of the challenges and opportunities with increasing the pace and scale of change in the building stock.

“New and existing buildings can be warm, healthy, affordable to heat, and even generate and store energy.”

The workshop resulted in three key messages.

• There is a need to work together across sectors – housing, energy, health, economic development – to create innovative and bold approaches to create a low-carbon housing stock; this includes setting targets and accurate performance measurement to track progress against the 2030 trajectory.

• Government must recognize that the built environment is essential to achieving a fairer Scotland in all aspects including health and well-being, social, economic and employment perspectives; at a local level and a personal level this is well understood, but it requires a greater buy-in from policy and decision makers.

• Future building regulations, standards and valuations must account for the current market value of new and existing buildings, and also the emotional value that the built environment brings to its users. More effort has to be spent on understanding how the occupants, landlords and other stakeholders value energy efficiency in the built environment and what emotional benefit it creates. This knowledge has to be matched with understanding the financial value of energy efficiency.

The group also discussed a vision for buildings in 2030. While a common vision was not agreed due to limited time, the following ideas were discussed.

• Nobody should be paying for energy as a separate bill. All buildings should be generating energy (through renewable microgeneration). Cost of energy will be included in the rent.

• Efforts to improve the energy efficiency of non-domestic buildings will equal those spent on domestic buildings.

• The built environment will have established a collaborative and holistic approach to construction and supply chains.

Government’s aim would be to develop a sustainable plan rather than a series of disjointed initiatives of delivering retrofit solutions.

• Buildings will be hubs promoting health and sustainability.

We will better understand how people interact with buildings, and therefore post-construction behaviour will be more sustainable.

• Carbon literacy and education for all involved in building design, construction and post-occupancy will be the norm.

Low-carbon design will be mainstreamed, and therefore construction companies can translate the architect’s sustainability vision into an actual sustainable building.

• We would develop innovative building fabrics that could be used as an insulation material for existing buildings. New materials will sequester more carbon and we will develop ways of producing less carbon-intensive cement.

The group was keen to discuss these ideas and more to help inform government’s policies going forward, to ensure the buildings sector plays its part – and more – in tackling climate change.

Buildings

B i t e s i z e S t e p s

• f uture Warm Homes Bill to include social impacts, inequality, health, fuel poverty, climate change, and recognition that “fair built environment = fair Scotland” • 2030 vision for all buildings, and stronger legislation

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Taking bites out of organisational carbon Professor Jan Bebbington, Professor of Accounting and Sustainable Development, School of Management, University of St Andrews

The idea of Bitesize is timely, as is the focus on what organisations might do to further support Scotland’s transition to a lower-carbon economy. The focus on organisations is valuable because there is a tendency to focus on macro-level initiatives (such as regulation and fiscal tools) and on micro-level initiatives (such as behaviour change and consumer choices) for low-carbon transitions. While both these foci are important, what can be missed is the substantial action and impact that can be achieved between these two levels, where communities, regions, industry groups and organisations sit.

Several themes emerged from the workshop discussion. First, increasing our knowledge of the significant material flows in the Scottish economy and their associated carbon profiles would allow more holistic decisions to be made. Evidence for the criticality of the intersection of circular economy to low-carbon ambitions can be found in Pratt et al (2016), who have modelled the material flows in the Scottish economy and identified the territorial and consumption carbon impacts of circular economy thinking to critical resources (namely, steel and neodymium – the latter is critical to renewable energy technologies). With a circular economy approach it is possible for consumption carbon emissions to be minimised while enabling the recycling of materials that are critical to economic functioning. This example takes a whole-life perspective, as you might expect with its focus on consumption carbon (rather than solely territorial carbon).

The need to consider whole-system effects was the second theme that emerged from discussion. An example from higher education illustrates this point. The further and higher education sectors are collectively working to reduce emissions from the operation of their estates, alongside an ambition to grow the higher education sector and its economic impact (with growth in overseas students being one way to do this). One hidden impact of increasing overseas students is that they incur carbon to fly to/from their studies; and while they are here, family and friends take the chance to visit Scotland, for good social reasons and with positive tourist income impacts. Davis and Dunk (2015) estimated that inbound student flight emissions were equivalent to 65% of all current carbon emissions that are mandatorily reported (in England) for universities (with friends/family visits added, this comes to 113% of the carbon reported). Considering the whole-carbon impacts arising from actions taken (in this case the provision of education) may lead to more whole-system design to reduce ‘hidden’ carbon emissions.

The final observation to make is that addressing how to reduce emissions over whole systems is more easily done in concert with others than alone. For example, the Scottish Whisky Federation has developed collaborations that have enabled the whole of the industry to tackle emissions, and reports on the performance of industry as a whole. Likewise, the higher and further education sector, through the Environmental Association of Universities and Colleges, shares best practice in environmental and carbon responsiveness. The same rationale can be observed in place-based partnerships for climate adaptation (see, for example, the work in Climate Ready Clyde).

“The further and higher education sectors are collectively working to reduce emissions from the operation of their estates.

In summary, the key observations from the Industry group in Bitesize are that accelerating carbon performance requires: • examining the whole-life cycle impacts of activities and decisions; • joining up policy agendas to achieve carbon ambitions (with the circular economy being a key enabler); and • connecting with those who are on the same track as you are to collaborate and learn together for accelerating change and impacts.

FURTHER READING

Davies J, Dunk R (2015) Flying along the supply chain: accounting for emissions from student air travel in the higher education sector (Carbon Management Vol 6: 5-6) Pratt K, Lenaghan M, Mitchard E (2016) Material flows accounting for Scotland shows the merits of a circular economy and then folly of territorial carbon reporting (Carbon Balance Management Vol 11: 21) Climate Ready Clyde (www.sniffer.org.uk/knowledge-hubs/ sustainable-places/climate-ready-clyde)

Industry • promotion of circular economy

B i t e s i z e S t e p s

•d ifferentiation between essentials and non-essentials, perhaps as with VAT

22 WINTER 2016-17

Climate change changes lives Adrian Shaw, Climate Change Officer, The Church of Scotland In September 2016 the Church of Scotland and Christian Aid welcomed partners from countries around the world to Scotland.

They brought stories from different continents about the impact of climate change: how it is causing flooding or drought; how it is changing the seasons and patterns of weather that communities depend on; how it is causing stress and disruption for traditional rural communities; how it is forcing migration into towns and cities and across borders.

They pointed to the gross inequality of the causes and consequences of climate change: that it is the richer nations of the world that have created climate change though their way of life, and how the developing nations suffer the worst consequences and are least able to respond. We heard too how climate change is taking effect closer to home, melting sea ice north of Norway, and how in Scotland the increased risk of flooding can bring pain and trauma into our own lives.

But we also heard stories of how churches, other faiths and faith-based NGOs are responding to these challenges: developing new worship materials that place care for creation at the centre of worship; taking practical action to help communities deal with changing climates; and promoting effective advocacy, including the large faith presence at the Paris climate summit (COP21) in 2015.

Here are two examples of stories that challenge us from around the world.

Bolivia’s water worries Cecilia Cordova, Bolivian Programme Officer, Christian Aid Bolivia is one of the many countries where the effects of climate change have become more visible in the last ten years. Although climate change has made climatic events more extreme, and affects every region in Bolivia in different ways, most of these effects have one common issue: water resources.

In 2014 the Amazonian region in Bolivia was affected by one of the worst floods in 60 years. It reached communities that would not usually be hit, and destroyed homes and crops. Ironically, only two years later Bolivia is going through the strongest drought in 25 years, leading to crop failures and, in the Amazon, an increase in forest fires, and affecting over 172,000 families. One of the regions most affected by this drought is Cochabamba, with at least 3,000 small farmers’ families being forced to abandon their homes in search of economic opportunities, especially in the nearer cities.

This has mobilised people across the country to fight against the causes and the effects of climate change, because it is now our turn to take care of nature. Indigenous movements worked alongside the government to define national policies and actions that could be shared during the negotiation processes in Copenhagen, Cancún and Paris. In 2010 the government passed the Law of the Rights of Mother Earth, to help define rural development policies that should be more respectful of the environment.

Bolivia held two global conferences on the rights of Mother Earth, to bring together people from across the world to work together in the protection of nature. Laurent Fabius participated in the second conference, only a few weeks before the COP in Paris, and agreed to take the main conclusions of this event to feed into the meetings in Paris.

“In 2010 the government passed the Law of the Rights of Mother Earth.”

At the beginning of 2016 it became evident that Lake Poopó, the second-largest lake in Bolivia, which had been shrinking over the past 25 years, had dried up completely. The people who lived in this region have had no option but to find work in small mining companies or in the salt flats. And in 2009 the Chacaltaya mountain glacier, once known as the highest ski resort in the world, melted completely. Climate change is also affecting other glaciers that provide Bolivian people with water in the cities and in the rural areas.

All of these events affect the livelihoods of people across Bolivia, especially those for whom agriculture is the main economic activity. However, there are other effects related to the relationship that people have with nature in Bolivia too. For most indigenous people, whether they live in the mountains, the valleys, or the Amazonian forest, nature is not just an object or scenery, but has a deeper emotional connection, like a mother that takes care of her children, by providing them with the means to satisfy their needs. This close relationship with Mother Earth is why, for those who live close to a glacier, or in the forest, or by the lakes, the idea, or reality, of losing them also means a blow to their identity.

However, despite these good intentions, it can be difficult to find a balance between respecting the rights of Mother Earth, and economic sustainability; and this can create conflicts when progressing different projects in protected areas or indigenous territories. In one of these projects for example, which encroaches on indigenous land, the government is pushing forward the construction of hydroelectric plants that it believes will satisfy Bolivia’s demand for energy and generate the economic resources the government needs to fund its development plan.

This also shows why it is important to work towards global joint action on climate change. That way, countries can work together to find ways to overcome poverty that are respectful of the environment and respond to the challenges we now face because of climate change.

International

B i t e s i z e S t e p s

•b uild relationships with affected communities to ensure global action and empathy

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Jamaica: climate crisis or chance for change?

Jacqueline Spence, Climate Branch Head, Meteorological Service, Jamaica

Travel with me to the Western Caribbean to an island called Jamaica, the land of wood and water, beautiful white sand beaches, lovely sunshine and friendly people. At approximately 4,000 square miles, making it the third-largest island in the Caribbean, it is home to approximately 2.7 million people.

Most major towns and cities, as well as major infrastructure, are along the coast. Two major contributors to the economy are tourism and agriculture. The picture painted is one of somewhere considered paradise by many. Even with ingrained vulnerabilities from being located in the hurricane belt, or being totally surrounded by water, to having significant economic problems, the populace is quite proud of their island home.

In recent times however, changes in weather patterns – droughts one minute, flooding the next, and increasing temperatures – became very apparent and warranted urgent attention to understand the source of these changes in order to respond.

It was found that climate variability and change were the contributors to the chaotic climate patterns, which then had ripple effects for very vulnerable sectors such as agriculture which is mainly rain-fed, or health which was now dealing with new vectorborne diseases.

on a small scale; however, what is needed is a total roll-out of climate resilience measures and strategies at all levels, and this process demands significant financial support.

Jamaica has struggled with high debt and very little growth for decades, but this has recently begun to show signs of recovery, so climatic changes will definitely stagnate growth because we are faced with protecting our coastal zone, maintaining infrastructure, and rehabilitating after any disruption resulting from impacts such as coastal erosion due to storm surges.

“What was considered normal or seasonal is changing, and this has a significant impact on planning and decision making.”

Therefore, in the international arena we want the understanding that adaptation is the main issue for us, as well as disaster risk reduction, and that significant financial assistance, capacity building and technological transfer is required to respond to and address these issues in a meaningful way. Jamaica sees the Paris Agreement which has now entered into force as a significant step towards a low-carbon and climateresilient world for the benefit of current and future generations.

Findings recorded in the State of the Jamaican Climate 2012 report have shown increases in average Mr Clifford Mahlung, temperatures of 0.1°C. meteorologist and one of Changes in the number of warm days and warm nights Watching the rainfall. © Michael Steffen, contributor to the Meteorological Service, Jamaica, World the chief negotiators on climate change on behalf have also shown an increase Meteorological Day Photo Competition of the government of and, correspondingly, the Jamaica, shared key points on what could be considered by the number of cold days and nights decreasing. Climate change people of Scotland in assisting with the problems. In terms of means sea level rise and coastal inundation for Small Island adaptation, he pointed out that assistance could be given in the Developing States (SIDS) like Jamaica, and preliminary analysis area of improving the capabilities of the National Meteorological also noted a slight increase for the Caribbean and, in particular, and Hydrological Services with developing early warning Jamaica. The report also noted that, although significant trends systems for hurricanes and floods, expanding and updating the were not identified in the rainfall record, due in part to the high data collection networks and through initiatives for training of level of variability, there was some indication of decreasing personnel within these services. This could take the form of amounts for the main rainfall season and slight increases in fellowships of student exchanges that allow for Scottish students the dry season. So what was considered normal or seasonal to learn first-hand of the Jamaican experience and vice versa. In is changing, and this has a significant impact on planning and terms of mitigation, the main role seen was that of assistance decision making. Food security, coastal protection, and improved with the existing plan for switching to renewable energy or for and integrated water management approaches are just a few achieving greater levels of energy efficiency. The suggestion of areas of priority for Jamaica in the context of climate change. As twinning between a city in Scotland and one in Jamaica, which minor emitters compared to developed countries, they stand to would allow sharing of experiences and ideas from actual visits pay a very high price for a problem to which they contributed very to the countries, was also put forward as a possible initial step little. towards a collaboration between the two countries.

Policies have been developed, namely the Vision 2030 document which is the long-term development plan for the country addressing adaptation linked with disaster risk reduction, and there is also the climate change policy framework. The institutional framework has also been established in the form of the Climate Change Division, which has responsibility for developing sector strategies with integrated climate change considerations. Interventions have been done through projects

FURTHER READING

Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) (2012) State of the Jamaican Climate 2012: Information for Resilience Building (Summary for Policymakers) (Planning Institute of Jamaica, Kingston)

24 WINTER 2016-17

Getting heat into the energy debate Hugh Muschamp

Our relationship with energy underpins our modern world, yet most of us rarely think about it until it is not there. When you woke up this morning, was it to an electric alarm clock? Did you boil a kettle? Take food from a fridge? How is your house warmed? Energy is seen to bring many of the advantages of modern life.

We have three main choices to manage energy. You may have heard of these as the energy hierarchy.

We do not really want energy, we want what energy gives us – the warm house, moving from place to place, a way to talk to our friends over distance, an industrial process.

Choosing energy efficiency is the first energy choice. This might simply be more insulation for your home.

Masterplans are a way of understanding the energy choices for your local area. Understanding local heat demand is a good place to start. Have a look at your community using the data on 2.8 million buildings in the Scottish Government’s Scotland Heat Map (heatmap.scotland.gov.uk).

So will you choose to need less energy, to have more efficient energy systems for moving and storing energy, or to find ways to capture our plentiful renewable energy sources? In all likelihood it will be all three. But to do this we all need to become more energy literate, understanding these choices and which are best for where we live and what we do.

“If we want to solve our future energy choices, we need to focus much of our effort on heat.”

The Bitesize event gave the chance to take another step on this journey to explore our local energy future.

The second choice is generating energy. We choose how much energy we need, mainly through measures to reduce energy demand. Once we know how much energy we need, that tells us how much we need to generate or recover from low-carbon sources.

The third choice is how we get energy from where we generate it to where we use it. Scotland is fortunate to have significant opportunities for renewable energy. However, the renewable energy will not always come when we want it or where we want it. To benefit from these bountiful renewable energy sources, we need to choose good ways of moving and storing energy, not something our existing centralised energy network does… yet. If we choose the most efficient energy systems, it will minimise energy losses, in turn meaning the less we need to generate.

I find it helpful to think of these energy choices as an equation.

energy consumption + moving and storing = generation and (after reducing demand) energy recovery Thinking of our energy choices as an equation helps to reflect the impact of each choice on our new energy system.

Energy

B i t e s i z e S t e p s

A simple example would be that a more insulated house would need less heat. A more efficient integrated energy system would need less energy to deliver the same heat. Both would mean less energy would need to be generated.

• l egislation of capture of heat storage and building regulations

How much energy does Scotland use? Electricity is often what people think of as energy. The Scottish Government report Energy in Scotland 2016 shows electricity at only 21%, transport at 25%, and heat at 54% (more than the other two combined). Our heat demand has other challenges, in that it peaks dramatically in the winter at several times its average demand. If we want to solve our future energy choices, we need to focus much of our effort on heat.

• investment in carbon capture and storage

Energy needs to be something we all talk about more. There will be decisions that need to be taken centrally, but many of the energy choices are ones that will need to be taken and acted upon locally. We all need to be more energy literate.

Energy literacy is key for us in our homes, our business, our training and education.

Local choices for local energy can be developed through the Scottish Enterprise Guide to Energy Masterplanning. Energy

• local energy masterplans and pilot • long-term finance guarantees

Hugh Muschamp is based in Scotland, and has worked in energy and climate change since 2000. Hugh works for Resource Efficient Solutions (a wholly-owned Fife Council company), and was seconded to the Scottish Government to manage the development of the Scotland Heat Map. FURTHER READING

Scottish Government (2016) Energy in Scotland 2016 Key Facts (www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00494813.pdf) Scottish Enterprise (2015) Guide to Energy Masterplanning (www.scottish-enterprise.com/knowledge-hub/articles/ publication/guide-to-energy-masterplanning)

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The concrete goals of climate action Indira Mann, Communications and Knowledge Exchange Executive, Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage (SCCS)

It marks a turning point in our approach to climate change.

In November, enough countries ratified the Paris Agreement to set the world on a trajectory to a zero-carbon future. If we are to avert the dangers posed by global warming, then it is likely to be our only chance, but can developed and developing countries alike meet the tough targets set? With rising populations and ambitions for economic growth, can we produce the energy and products our society demands without losing sight of hard-won climate commitments?

the potential for clusters of industry to share CO2 transport and storage, thereby unlocking a powerful tool for futureproofing industrial heartlands across the UK. In Teesside, for example, an industry collective – including producers of fertilisers, polymers, petrochemicals and hydrogen – is building the business case for CCS as the means of delivering, in their words, “economic growth and regional prosperity”. Similar opportunities exist in areas such as Fife and Grangemouth in Scotland, where the reuse of a natural gas pipeline (Feeder 10) would reduce the cost of carrying CO2 from these industrial centres to North Sea storage sites.

“The geology beneath the North Sea offers ideal conditions for permanently storing CO2.”

A case in point is our appetite for cement, which forms the very building blocks of our modern world. Cement production globally has risen by a factor of 25 since 1950. It accounts for between 5% and 8% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions worldwide. China alone used more of the stuff between 2011 and 2013 than the USA during the entire 20th century. While the Paris treaty assumes a shift towards economies powered solely by clean energy, that is just part of the story.

The cement sector recognises the need to decarbonise or risk damage to its business case when the carbon price starts to soar. Three of the world’s five largest cement producers are based in the European Union and, in 2011, cement production there was worth €18 billion. Hundreds of thousands of jobs, direct and indirect, also depend on the future sustainability of the industry.

Returning briefly to cement, it is worth underlining the fact that this and other CO2 intensive industries cannot be cleaned up by renewable energy or efficiency improvements alone, because of the chemical processes involved. Sooner or later, the need to tackle emissions will become urgent, both economically and environmentally. The world’s first decarbonised cement plant could be in Norway, where the government has given support for a CCS project at Norcem’s Brevik plant. Its CO2 will initially be shipped to a shared offshore CO2 storage site, which could be made available to other industries around the North Sea. The UK is in prime position to do the same, and industry clusters could be the way to make this happen.

In cement production, it is not the energy used but the chemical process involved which generates the bulk of carbon emissions. There are other heavy industries, such as steel, chemicals and fertilisers – necessary for feeding, clothing, powering and protecting our world – that face the same challenge, and many individual sites have exhausted every option for reducing these emissions. Apart from one: carbon capture and storage (CCS).

This promising technology involves capturing huge volumes of CO2 at power plants or industrial facilities, where it is compressed and transported to geological storage sites deep below ground. The technology has been part of natural gas production in Norway since the 1990s, and two full-chain CCS projects now operate in Canada on power generation and refining. Other large-scale projects are under construction or await financial backing. The UK, and Scotland in particular, has a special set of assets, which could deliver a CCS industry serving the whole of Europe.

The geology beneath the North Sea offers ideal conditions for permanently storing CO2. Research by SCCS and others estimates a very large CO2 storage capacity of around 78,000 million tonnes in UK waters. The top 15% of this would last the UK around 100 years. A new CCS industry that could make good use of both the skills and the infrastructure from our declining oil and gas sector could also provide a CO2 storage service to European emitters. And our academic community is working hard on a wide sweep of research to ensure that CCS achieves its full potential.

Project developers are exploring the most viable and costeffective ways to build a CCS industry in the UK. Previous attempts have failed due to a lack of investment or adequate policy support. But there are initiatives looking seriously at

FURTHER READING

Schneider M (2016) The cement industry’s approach to carbon capture (European Cement Research Academy, setis.ec.europa.eu/system/files/ecracembureau_input_ action9.pdf) Kajaste R, Hurme M (2015) Cement Industry Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Management Options and Abatement Cost (Journal of Cleaner Production) Energy Technologies Institute (2016) Progressing Development of the UK’s Strategic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resource (www.eti.co.uk/news/eti-project-identifies-costeffective-ccs-storage-sites-off-the-uk-coast) © Nicolas Economou

26 WINTER 2016-17

Scottish ‘exportise’ in China Shelley Zhou, CEO, Scotland Hong Kong Centre for Carbon Innovation

In September, at the G20 summit in Hangzhou, both China and the USA ratified the Paris Climate Agreement. China is responsible for about 25% of global carbon emissions, with the US responsible for about 15%, making their efforts crucial in the fight against warming.

China has formally committed to stopping the rise in its carbon dioxide emissions within the next 15 years and pledged to reduce the carbon intensity of its vast economy, releasing its much-anticipated strategy for United Nations climate talks. In order to fulfil its obligations under the Paris Agreement, China will need to cut carbon emissions by 6065% per unit of GDP by 2030, compared with 2005 levels, and boost its use of non-fossil fuels so they account for 20% of its energy consumption.

Ratifying the Agreement would further advance China’s green, low-carbon development, and safeguard environmental security. The Chinese government anticipated that this move was also “conducive to China’s development interests.”

Although it remains to be seen if this might be affected by the recent change in political landscape in the USA. China tops the world ratings for pollution and coal use, but high levels of air pollution have seen the government invest heavily in gas and renewables. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, coal consumption fell 2.9% between 2013 and 2014, while GDP rose 7.4%. Over the same period, installed wind capacity grew by 25.6% and solar by 67%. In contrast, coal generation capacity grew by 5.9%.

To meet its new energy targets the country will need to invest US$6.6 trillion, according to the Climate Group. China’s efforts to align its domestic growth agenda and global climate change agenda is a leading example of the fundamental shift required to grow the economy differently.

According to the UN Environment Programme, China is likely to require around €500 billion a year from 2016 to 2020 to finance its national environmental goals. There is an urgent need for innovative ideas and fresh thinking. Meanwhile, as more and more Chinese companies are going global, there is also an opportunity to help these companies adopt low-carbon solutions overseas.

level by 2020. The main potential for Hong Kong to reduce emissions rests mainly in using less coal in local electricity generation, reducing electricity usage in buildings, making transport more energy efficient, and recovering (renewable) energy from waste. Innovative solutions and technology breakthroughs are needed to reduce the necessary 8-14 million tonnes of carbon emission in the next four years to achieve the city target.

The Scottish Centre will act as a hub to bring together Scottish and Hong Kong talent, resources and ideas to create an incubation space for new low-carbon ideas, products and projects. It will focus on areas such as sustainable construction, green transportation, energy efficiency, resource management and smart cities. Hong Kong can be a testbed for low-carbon technology development and application of solutions, before wider adoption in China. With its financial centre’s capacity, Hong Kong also wishes to play a substantial role in ‘green finance’, to spur green innovation.

China’s One Belt, One Road initiative is concerned with raising capital and building infrastructure on a huge scale, such as property development, construction, mass transit, energy and telecommunications, but China needs to embed its ‘belt and road’ with ‘lean, clean and green’.

Both Scotland and Hong Kong excel in talent, technology, finance, design and the legal profession. This means that there is an important role that the Scottish-Hong Kong partnership can play in building China’s One Belt, One Road: a role as a convenor – bringing people together, encouraging the exchange of knowledge and ideas, showcasing best practices for infrastructure building, and promoting universal technical standards. Based on ECCI’s experience, HKCCI will continue to create a successful story in Hong Kong and further to China, where Scottish knowledge and solutions (or ‘exportise’) can contribute to wider social, economic and environmental goals of cities and regions in Asia.

“China’s efforts to align its domestic growth agenda and global climate change agenda is a leading example of the fundamental shift required to grow the economy differently.”

Many technology companies and research bodies are keen on exploiting the emerging Asian and Chinese markets for low-carbon solutions. Scotland has set up a centre, led by the University of Edinburgh through its ECCI subsidiary, Hong Kong Centre for Carbon Innovation Ltd, with partners including the Scottish Government (SDI), Edinburgh Napier University, and BRE Group. This centre has an unparalleled capability to make an impact, acting as a catalyst for the development of new solutions in a location close to the source of Asia’s challenging emission problems.

While climate change is a multiplier of risks, it also brings opportunities important for a high density city like Hong Kong. In 2013, Hong Kong’s total greenhouse gas emissions were 44 million tonnes of carbon, among which twothirds came from power generation and nearly a fifth from transportation. In 2010, Hong Kong put forward its own target to reduce the carbon intensity by 50-60% from the 2005

International •c hance to develop partnerships with Hong Kong and China

B i t e s i z e S t e p s

The

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Mainstreaming green finance Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of England

Financing the de-carbonisation of our economies implies a sweeping reallocation of resources and a technological revolution.

The International Energy Agency estimates that globally as much as €45 trillion of investment in total could be needed in power supply and end-use efficiency to meet the two-degree target agreed in Paris1. China alone is likely to require around €500 billion a year from 2016 to 2020 to finance its national environmental goals2. A substantial proportion of this is likely to be raised offshore, absorbing excess global savings, helping to push up global equilibrium interest rates, and ultimately increasing global growth.

With investment in long-term infrastructure assets needing to quadruple, green investment represents a major opportunity for both long-term investors and macroeconomic policymakers seeking to jump-start growth. For this to happen, however, green finance cannot conceivably remain a niche interest over the medium term.

“Authorities are exploring ways to mobilise private capital for green investments.”

That’s why, at the request of G20 Leaders, authorities are exploring ways to mobilise private capital for green investments. During 2016, under China’s G20 Presidency, a Green Finance Study Group (GFSG)3 undertook a stock-take of institutional and market barriers to green finance and identified ways to mobilise private capital for green investment.

One proposal is international collaboration to facilitate crossborder investment in green bonds.

The development of this new global asset class is an opportunity to advance a low-carbon future while raising global investment and spurring growth.

For investors, green bond markets offer a stable, rated and liquid investment with long duration. For issuers, green bonds are a way to tap the huge US$100 trillion pool of patient private capital managed by global institutional fixed-income investors. The shift to the capital markets from banks will also free up limited bank balance sheet capacity for early-stage project financing and other important infrastructure lending.

The green bond market is gradually gathering speed. Annual issuance rose from just US$3 billion in 2012 to US$42 billion in 20154. It could double this year with issuers ranging from US regional authorities raising funds domestically to invest in water projects, to Chinese and Indian corporates, issuing in a range of currencies, in major financial centres, including London, to finance renewable energy projects5.

Despite this progress, total issuance still accounts for less than 1% of holdings by global institutional investors.

To reach escape velocity, market participants and public authorities will need to co-ordinate to deliver common green bond frameworks and definitions, and other necessary supporting infrastructure, to build local and cross-border markets.

Specific measures could include: • developing a ‘term sheet’ of internationally recognised standardised terms and conditions for a green bond; • creating voluntary definitional frameworks, certification and validation to give certainty to issuers and investors that the project being financed is ‘green’;

An elderly woman climbs into her house that was swept by strong winds during Typhoon Hagupit in Can-Avid, Eastern Samar, The Phillippines. © Alanah Torralba | Greenpeace

• integrating environmental risk and green certification into credit ratings; • developing green bond indices to unlock the potential investment power of passively managed investments; • assessing the scope for standardisation and harmonisation of principles for green bond listings to promote efficient trading and adequate liquidity.

Authorities are now working with the private sector to develop a green bond term sheet with standardised terms and conditions6. This should significantly improve the ease and efficiency of green bond issuance and simplify investor access to green bond markets in multiple currencies, thereby moving them into the mainstream of finance.

Markets that value the future Financial policymakers will not drive the transition to a lowcarbon economy. Governments will establish the frameworks, and the private sector will make the investments.

Nonetheless, financial policymakers do have a clear interest in ensuring the financial system is resilient to any transition hastened by those decisions. Our role is to help develop the frameworks for markets to adjust efficiently.

This figure consists of (i) investment that will be needed to stay in line with current policy commitments and (ii) additional investment needed to achieve a least-cost twodegree outcome. See International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2015.

1

See Green Finance – A Growing Imperative, Paulson Institute, SIFMA, Green Finance Committee, UNEP Inquiry, 2016.

2

The GFSG was jointly chaired by the Bank of England and People’s Bank of China, with the United Nations Environment Programme providing the secretariat.

3

4

See Climate Bonds Initiative, 2015 Green Bond Market Round-up.

For a list of green bonds issued see https://www.climatebonds.net/cbi/pub/data/ bonds

5

Specific issues being addressed include: (i) ensuring use of proceeds is clearly delineated for a green project or activity; (ii) issuers having a clearly defined process to validate proceeds are being used for intended, and stated purpose; (iii) a clear, transparent and regular mechanism for reporting the use of proceeds, often involving second or third-party verification; and (iv) finally an appropriate dispute mechanism for when these other conditions are not met.

6

This article was extracted with permission from Resolving the climate paradox, the Arthur Burns Memorial Lecture given by Mark Carney in Berlin on 22nd September 2016.

See www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/ speeches/2016/speech923.pdf for the full speech.

28 WINTER 2016-17

Sven Hedin: breaking the dress code on the roof of the world Jo Woolf, RSGS Writer-in-Residence

In July 1895, after decades of posturing and conflict, a new line was being drawn on the map of Central Asia. Delegates from Britain and Russia met in the Pamir Mountains in order to define part of India’s northern boundary. On the bank of the Aksu River, the traditional white tents of the British contingent stood alongside the Russians’ brightly embroidered yurts in an atmosphere of unexpected friendliness and joviality. As military bands played, Cossacks mingled with Afghans, Kyrgyz, Tajiks, and soldiers of the Punjab Infantry. Teams of surveyors sallied forth into the mountains and set to work.

Into this lively arena stepped the Swedish explorer Sven Hedin, who was making his way out of the Hindu Kush and just happened to be passing by. Hedin was 30 years old, ambitious and well-connected; he knew both the British and Russian commanders personally, and each had sent him the warmest of invitations.

With one foot almost literally in both camps, the question was which to accept first. Hedin was also painfully conscious of his lack of formal attire, but he had crawled out of the Taklamakan Desert only two months before. He hadn’t imagined that he would feel under-dressed.

“Into this lively arena stepped the Swedish explorer Sven Hedin, who was making his way out of the Hindu Kush and just happened to be passing by.”

His worries proved to be entirely groundless. The British and the Russians were used to dining out in each other’s camps on a regular basis, washing down the liberal helpings of caviar, asparagus, crayfish soup and pâté de fois gras with the finest of French wines. Hedin was an honoured guest, and if his simple

woollen clothes stood out against the smart uniforms of his hosts, they were admired as a mark of his pioneering spirit. When he was asked to pose for a photograph, he made the best of it with highly polished boots and a borrowed cap, his snow goggles adding a certain edge.

Banquets, derby days, shooting competitions, camel races... the only surprise is that the surveyors found time to do any work.

In the end it was the onset of winter, with snowstorms already rattling the tents in late August, which hurried the diplomats towards a conclusion. As they prepared to make their way back down to Kashmir, the British pressed Hedin to go with them, and he received an equally warm offer from the Russians, who were northward-bound.

What did the Pamir Boundary Commission achieve? Most importantly, a mutual agreement was reached about the limits of British and Russian territory, and the Wakhan Corridor, an eastern ‘spur’ of Afghanistan, came into being as a kind of safety wedge between the two. Meanwhile, the triumphant winners of the military gymkhana carried some expensive British silverware back to their home countries, and Sven Hedin, waving goodbye to his friends and turning his face resolutely towards the mountains that lay to the east, made a mental note never again to travel without a dinner jacket.

A guest lecturer at the RSGS in 1897, when he received a Silver Medal, Sven Hedin then received the Livingstone Medal in 1902 “in consideration of the distinguished services he has rendered to geographical science by his explorations in central Asia,” and the Gold Medal in 1908 “for his 1907-1908 explorations in Central Asia.”

There is much more to say about Sven Hedin, and RSGS is trying to raise the funds necessary to publish a new book by Jo Woolf, provisionally titled The Great Horizon, in which she will tell 50 astonishing stories of exploration gathered from the RSGS archives.

FURTHER READING

Through Asia, by Sven Hedin (1898)

A wardrobe crisis in the Wakhan Corridor? Just another day in the extraordinary life of Swedish explorer Sven Hedin, illustrated in this wonderful photograph from the RSGS archive. We would like to thank Håkan Wahlquist of the Sven Hedin Foundation for his help in sourcing the photo.

Report on the Proceedings of the Pamir Boundary Commission by Maj-Gen M G Gerard (1896)

The

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Chief Emeka Anyaoku, RSGS Livingstone Medallist 1996 Jo Woolf, RSGS Writer-in-Residence

“Our way of living is not only threatening the health and diversity of our planet’s species, but has become a huge threat to human survival as well.”

“a highly sensitive and sensible man... and a redoubtable fighter when he believes in a cause.”

Over the last century, the political landscape of South Africa has often resembled a field of hay in a heatwave, ready to burst into flames at the merest spark. In this complex and highly volatile environment, Chief Emeka Anyaoku has devoted much of his life and all his exceptional talents to promote understanding, democracy and peace.

Chief Emeka Anyaoku was awarded the Livingstone Medal by the Royal Scottish Geographical Society in 1996, “in recognition of his service to this geographically most significant body [Commonwealth Heads of Government], bringing together countries from around the globe, and for his outstanding contribution to humanitarian concerns and inter-relationships between the peoples of the Commonwealth and beyond.”

The Nigerian-born Anyaoku studied at the University College of Ibadan, graduating in 1959 with a degree in classics; he served in the Nigerian Foreign Service before taking up a post with the Commonwealth Secretariat. A gifted diplomat with a gentle spirit and a passion for democracy, he campaigned tirelessly for the abolishment of apartheid, and was directly involved in the negotiations which led to peace in Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa.

Seen through the eyes of his contemporaries on the world stage, Anyaoku is a “moral beacon” and “an outstanding international civil servant.” His dazzling list of honours and offices is a testament to his dedication. He is held in equal respect in his native country, having been elected a Ndichie chief – Ichie Adazi of Obosi – in his home state of Anambra.

His wife, Ebunola Olubunmi, is a chieftainess in her own right, and a campaigner for human welfare.

“He presented the European Commission with some stark facts and figures about the upsurge in human population and its alarming environmental impact.”

Anyaoku was elected Secretary-General of the Commonwealth Heads of Government in 1989, and served two successive terms from 1990 to 2000. On accepting the post, he promised to use all his energy and resources to foster a sense of equality and inter-dependence among the member nations; and he certainly got off to an auspicious start. In July 1990, less than a week after his inauguration, he found himself hosting an official dinner for Nelson Mandela, who had just been released from prison in South Africa. Anyaoku has spoken of his profound admiration for Mandela, who later penned the foreword to his book, Eye of Fire.

Helping restore peace to war-torn countries sounds like enough of a mission for one lifetime, but Anyaoku has also turned his attention to a different kind of crisis.

“In 1961 humanity used half of our planet’s ecological capacity.

According to the most recent data, humanity’s demand now equals 1.3 planet Earths.”

In 2007, speaking as International President of the Worldwide Fund for Nature, he presented the European Commission with some stark facts and figures about the upsurge in human population and its alarming environmental impact. His speech makes uncomfortable reading, but he was absolutely clear about our moral duty to the planet and its wildlife. He outlined a new Global Programme Framework, in which the WWF aims to halt biodiversity loss and “help humanity reduce its footprint to the size of one planet Earth by 2050.”

Now in his eighties, Emeka Anyaoku still has many international commitments which he combines with his traditional duties in Nigeria and his role as a father and grandfather. In the words of one of his contemporaries, he is

© Mike Robinson

BOOK CLUB

30 WINTER 2016-17

Storminess and Environmental Scotland The Best Change Climate Forcing and Responses 12th edition

in the Mediterranean Region

Peter Irvine (Collins, April 2016)

edited by Nazzareno Diodato and Gianni Bellocchi (Springer, January 2014)

Peter Irvine is your personal guide to the very best of Scotland. From the streets of Edinburgh to the Western Isles, he’s visited, rated and remarked on places to visit, eat and sleep, bringing together the must-see highlights of Scotland.

Polar Mariner Beyond the Limits in Antarctica Captain Tom Woodfield (Whittles Publishing, June 2016) Captain Woodfield made 20 seasonal voyages to the Antarctic on three research ships between 1955 and 1974. Starting as a Junior Deck Officer, he worked for the Falkland Islands Dependencies Survey which in 1964 became the British Antarctic Survey. He played a paramount role in the gradual change from using under-powered and poorlyequipped ships to the professionally-managed and sophisticated vessels of his last command.

He describes the arts of exploration and survival during his early years in this majestic but unforgiving continent, as attempts were made to establish research stations, support science, and survey in totally uncharted, ice-filled waters amidst often ferocious weather. He features dramatic stories such as the near loss of a ship in pack ice, the stranding of another in hurricane force winds, and the collapse of an ice-cliff onto the vessel.

Trusted for over 20 years, and fully revised and updated for this 12th edition, this comprehensive and independent guide to Scotland includes over 2,000 recommendations for every type of adventure.

Discover stunning scenery, landscapes and historical highlights; find the best coastal walks, city strolls and sight-seeing spots; eat at the best local cafés and regional restaurants; get advice on where to sleep, from wild camping to boutique hotels; explore the true culture of Scotland and discover local, hidden gems.

A Farewell to Ice

A Report from the Arctic Peter Wadhams (Allen Lane, September 2016) Most of the scientific establishment predict that the North Pole will be free of ice around the middle of this century. Peter Wadhams, the world’s leading expert on sea ice, presents incontrovertible scientific data in clear language to demonstrate that even this assessment of the future is optimistic.

Winner of the WS Bruce Medal awarded by RSGS and RSE, Wadhams has visited the polar regions more often than any other living scientist, and has a uniquely authoritative perspective on the changes they have undergone and where those changes will lead. He describes how sea ice forms and the vital role it plays in reflecting solar heat back into space, providing an ‘air conditioning’ system for the planet. He shows how a series of rapid feedbacks in the Arctic region are accelerating change there more rapidly than almost all scientists, and political authorities, have previously realised, and that the dangers of further acceleration are very real.

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Scotland: Mapping the Islands Christopher Fleet, Charles W J Withers and Margaret Wilkes (Birlinn, October 2016)

As miniature worlds, beautiful locations and homes to communities seemingly distant from the stresses of modern life, Scotland’s many islands have an extraordinary fascination for countless people, not least for the hundreds of thousands of visitors who visit them each year. Maps too fascinate, as objects of visual delight and historical importance, and as a means to represent and understand landscapes.

This stimulating and informative book reproduces some of the most beautiful and historically significant maps from the National Library of Scotland’s magnificent collection, exploring the many dimensions of island life and how this has changed over time. Arranged thematically and covering topics such as population, place-names, defence, civic improvement, natural resources, navigation, and leisure and tourism, the book presents the rich and diverse story of Scottish islands from the earliest maps to the most up-to-date techniques of digital mapping in a unique and imaginative way.

Readers of The Geographer can purchase Scotland: Mapping the Islands for only £22.50 (RRP £30.00) with FREE UK P&P. To order, please visit www.birlinn.co.uk and enter code ‘ISLEMAP1617’ at the checkout, or call 0845 370 0063 and quote the code ‘ISLEMAP1617’.

RSGS: a better way to see the world Phone 01738 455050 or visit www.rsgs.org to join the RSGS. Lord John Murray House, 15-19 North Port, Perth, PH1 5LU Charity SC015599

Printed by www.jtcp.co.uk on Claro Silk 115gsm paper.

100% FSC certified using vegetable-based inks in a 100% chemistry-free process.

This book describes recent developments in the modelling of hydro-climatological processes in time and space. The topic brings together a wide range of disciplines, such as climatology, hydrology, geomorphology and ecology, with examples of problems and related modelling approaches.

The focus is on Mediterranean environments, where soil erosion by water is a major cause of landscape degradation, and the fragility of ecosystems is abundantly documented. By exploring interactions between erosive storms and land, with the help of modelling solutions created at a variety of scales, the book investigates in detail the climatic implications for the Mediterranean landscape in an effort to bridge historical and contemporary research, making it unique in its approach.