A Decomposition Analysis of Philippine Export and Import Performance, 1974-1982 by Ronald Yacat

A DEC_.__$1TIC_.:]V_iA.LY_,.I-S OF _APP. IN£ t_T

AND IMPO_Fff .PERF.@_E_

•1974 -_I_2

PHILIPPINEI_STITir_ _ _DR __

S_IDIES

... .. -

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. •....... _"Y

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•

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=.a.

.... =

- Poncianc

_ .

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S ::._.

= .

Inta!,-i.Fr.

•

. .-

-: "•

. " ... __

. - -

.. ,

•

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i-.-i-_i " '_:.

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•A "DF/I_).D_..POSZ-TI.0N - ANAL'/:.$I S O'}": PHZ LZ P!:, I[_E.. }, 'IX:£{G}iT " • . . _ " . : . "" AI:_7_, ZMPOR_I PERFORFtz_CE;, ]974..... _9_?.-i• '. .. " ... _.

• "

...

...- -. .. ".

This

-. :-.

..'"

paper

-[-

.:"

Dresents

_he

._ --___"

- ,:-:-

..:.._ .

...[ "-

p_*e'].imii'-ary _esuil_s-- of

...

d-ecompo,_;ition

•

a__al_!sis--<)f P hiii_Dine .

;

t he .

defici:ts

and

mo_nti_q

-...

er_

-...he deco_position

ana)_ysi "

"the paper

Ba]_assa!s (19S:I)framewcrk .-..

i.t'_ esti_.-a-t:J._g the

payments.e_f_.uts_

_h,:x:ks and

•debt.

follbws

-..

-Z .

bala_ce

of-

•:

• . :: .

c,f extez-nal

....

tO "these • " ....- .

shocks.

Balassa

hypothetical .. .

•

export

..'

what

. I

..-

•_

the

.9xpo_rt_ fz0m

.. . . . e:'x:pOrts .. . t b-e cbun'cry',_ would

i .

given

a ct_lal

_.'_ ...... *

wor-ld

o-[ .p<:l!c_},resTx_nse::,;

di:f,ferer_tia-te:__ic._al

-.-

.. •.

-. ".

" .

....

•

external .

P_ilipp.ine-s , _

-. ..

...-

:'' • .

!9.8.2 .whet, .

h'uge trade ...

expcrf'_-and-imix_rt

•

d.urin-g. /]974: -_-z -. -

ex}_rienced

... : ,

performanc-e

..:

i_rowth

and

•

a_uming

the

. "! _

country's

... -

total

iqo/id -.

.. .....

period)• of

fo_.eign

from ...

trer_d-exPol'itS -. =. .

export

demarld

•

perle4

and

world

exports •

..:'_ .

the

ba_e • .

and •

,e:_j?o:t:_:s duz-ir_ .

. ..

. .

that_the

• .

were ..

(i.e.,

given

t_e ".>

sam_.e

..•

as ..

cciih:tr:]-[s-ba:.seperiod

maintaiDed.i). . . ..-

that .

The

the

_rer_d

d klri_g ,

the

base

_ota/

differencebe=tween ±

• Assistant Professor ,/Department of Econom].cs, CDEM, U.P.- a:t Los Banos_- C.01_lege, LaguDa.The 'au_.n_r wishes to acknowiedge-t]_ _ble researc_ a_sistance-of Ms. Carminda S. Cereno. .. ....

. •

...

.act/_al exports

• - .

. .. =-.

•

"_ . •

.-...

_n.c_ ' _-_-

.:_. ez=_,.rt__:..:.n,'._ic:ates c.he ektent... . -.

: "

.. __

" -

. • ..

-Of.-t&sJ-e'_i[_C,t.pr-c.mc-ric_.r; ef£?_ct..

For-='-;_n]e_.

... .... .-. ... .... 2commodity_ .ac£uai .e._Kgc._--ts " .great.e1>.than :

.... :indicate-

..="

a •

-a c0nstant ....

:...-

-.._........<_....._. .. hvpot?ietical: export_

. .--.

•

_ .. -• -

: _

_ . -.

demand ........... ..condi-tio.nsas .--= ..

:" .

. --

._ - . "h ..-

: ":

Im.por.ts.,.

• . . ... ....

.-_

___im_)Ncr ..

.. _.:

.. - _ . . ._ .. • . '.._ -

hase .... w:,_-zod., .... •: .." t.ren&_"_..

....

• .

• _ -.

- ) ..

•.

GNP .:

. _-

qrow,th

" .

. : •

an._

.imr.)oft-s

L-

........... ul .... _d .t.roz t2_e-:aCti%al •rate -. . .

•

... -

. .

. _

... .

peri-od

. ,

of ..

income...

.--e!ast_i.c_-_y.-of):.d-_.m_d-ir_-_I_ia.i_taine.d<"t.r__nd importls • ..

ca..l:c/nla_c.eG._o.n the

. _...

az_t.

.as sum p-%:i.:o<{, tha.£ 5oth

..•

-...

,. _. .

•

,.-

trend.

. .

-,_nr._:." _.'r the_•as__sumpt.ior_-:_bit":hhe h_se . • _: .". :f..:

;

- -

._Hyr_,Dthetical .iraqi;iS ara ..

. • •

C_,_]- i.mports_-

' •

..a.ct,_a1

- f] _

hypothetJ '

•S ira.i;! a _." l"y-_ .... Ba[ a.s-_;a d.iff e.ren_-is_t.es •:betWeen - . ..

or,

t'he, fo_-eli_n _/zorr . ,.

comT.._a.;_ed.to :the . .

....... --.

.:"

....

.o-n-the .cour_.try.'s.ex.pe;rt:::_ :0f. chan_es ._ .;_ -: . -

::.

. maa Sure.s.the • . ..

=....

•

• .

•

..9[:

•

_".... zf_e. _ng_;g&i _c.=!t._?_r.±c_]%_ .... .2'he /:" _ :__;.c_. _',"; _.t_,een --

. ....

•t',r encie-_;,-_-r_: s-_.:nd h:y_X%the ticv%lexports .

- .....

" . .

_arket-

".... .-

,.ur.a giveh

-.[_... . ,... hetter_t-har,,_c-xpect.ed •.expc_i';_perferr..,_rlce.., ba£,ed -..

•

/2.

GNP- tre:'_d a_d- base

•

. ..

peg._:c_di_'.come el01sticit>_, of _i_:_?;.an d .are.ma-:i.r_tair, ed dur:i..ngthe . :

current

9_riod2._*'h

. L'. .

• "

hyp.6thet_ca]., •.

" ..

•

..-

subs_.itUtion, .

•

..-

• •

•

.. _

. .. .. .._

.. .. • . .--.

;

-"-_', "--' im__orts :_ u.ac,._., _ .

impc_:ct-s: i__>.aii.c"-*_¢_" .f-hi .. . _-._. _...........

• .. ....

-. -

'r,

c-]iffegehh.._-D_gtween

a ..nd ..

'_":_:r-, -'_

_;f im}?ort

..........

......

• .

_" r- " t.cer_d _m//)ort_ " _n.,,.-di:.(:f2er_<%_::e .bet._,-:_.en

add.

5" .

•

___hYpothe-£ical. impe.rts-i Indlcate<_ .... ".._.[,e ..... " " .:......_,._c:,.. : ...... _3n.],.mpo_._s• " "_ of _. c h_s_

in. the

......._-

rate. of..__h

-of. th_

.:•

.. .

actu-al

.. in" accounting

Finally, ... :

trade

]i...j........

. : .

..:. _.o.my.

d.omestic

for

the

._'_,_._;,eer:,

di.f_ere_ce ....... .

and.trend

. ..

.__

t:-_kde balance,

£,he _.erm_s 0f

•

...

-eff-ect i.s a:]_;_, .... incl.t).ded. The

trade

_rade .,-.

ie.r#n_ of

•. ..

•

_L .

•..

•"

...

:i.s • ..

. •

_. _"_-_-: f .:,..t

. .

.. •

.._.

ba!ancei

--.

- .

•. • •

. _

:.... ..

. .

•

".=

. ..

• " .....

.-.

. •

• •

. ...

...

_ --

-. •

_.. .

. ..

_..

.. . . .

.. • .

•

"caic_;iated

.fr.-;i-,m .Uhe diffe.r;.'nce .%,_wee.n -.

actual., ... and

trend

_r=ceS. .

T'ffZ.FRAN£WO}C<

-..

.. • . .....

.."....

. " :- .

The

differenc4

"/ .: :

b:-'_-.._ _-,-_',_ act,aa! -

_.'.i

_r_L!e'"b'al.an:,:se _md .

• .

-. ....

'trade.bainr:¢.*z is defined.-as:

• .

...

trend

_ -.

. : -

-." ±. .

-: B.i.T =

": P_'LTt

_ M Mt _%.

...._e" de ;_icit. t It'_,

actual

expcrt.pr-ice

{trehd)

: Pt TP. - _'tl

.. .

p-iX (._,.Tx_:.:=

•

ict'dal . (tx'e,_.d)

• .

.._.. ; • ..

.;.

.:Bt ..... " . ..(._,t i ) ....:=

-:.

. _x ..A._ _ P_2:

where:

"-"-.

.-..

. .-

(-I-)

_.-."

-..

•

index.

....:

Ptm ..!-.. '";i,_-r_hT_'_. q : ........= • ac,-_:c__ t tre:._e.) ,_r_p_oi.-t..,pi::i',:_ :.. . :i.ndex. "

_xt ,-.(X_¢_ ..

a.<:'tu;£; • . (=rend) "

r,_.a.= . ,. .exports " .

,..

" -

_ _, >. .. _..,t..(M_ .

: .

•

, r_-al (trer,0"_

aCt_al

.....

•

imports;

...

Equlat,io,n..i

•

can

• side.,

.be exi:,a::.aded,.C;_..ti]e e.xp©rt_recei.p_s ,

add tX._ and

guht:t

t.k_ equa_'i0r_ the .

-p t. X-X t H ' ....

. . .

•

" "" '-- X'_t]-"" • .

...

"..

_... r.'d.

. ._ "

.X.t_.

• .

Pt X _

chat

Th_n :

Pt HX

tT.x,_ ._t _',':

" (_t.-

Xt H). +

(Ptx

•

• "

. - .

t) _(xt - xt,_)_:

" • ,_,TX-. T (p_ _ - <t " ]X_,

_(?;t x - _)(xt¢ -,

....

[

•Pt.x Xt-

•

(2,)..

fol!ewin%_:

. .

..Xt",

assume

) .,._xt •

;

_,.>:t .'I}

. .

..-

where ::

..ptHX

_.:= hy.pztbe*&i_cai exi'/_,_.':"t _;rice.7

Xt H.

• .

'-O 2 --_-' _ ....... -..... ze_ -,....,...,.o._h_ 4._-

i _::<_ort_; [

•. On

the

2_oyme:!_s

•equatJ._Jn _h_ and. Mt_T-

_-'_._.Lde, add.t-_

foi.lcwJx_c; p H.,M._ H

M.tlg_ Assume

that

and

.-.

_.ubtra_::,.'c. frc-m

",-he

i,:.,,., t<_. _! . _ "_

P._'_ _:"_t "

__":;:_ ..:

3) •

7.P_MMt + .rt ..

•

TM,, • - _Mt _.. .."....._ . ,.. l"t T ..... - • ;F:_!L"]) _') "-

:..

(MtT

- M }_'_

, ._

: ._ :.

•.

where--

•

i"tH

hgpoth._:tir-'a.l:_,-_I i..m.Do_rt..¢._ %.

= ..s;yp_tbe'_cax, ;':u_iCe.._ :.-...... •?..;.tHM _ _ _., i:n_or-'t'_ . :. •

Combir_i

• _...... _..;_ __ t i -.on (_. . .....

equa

.....

• . .

(,2 _...)a nd

• •

..:.1

' t-,

":"_)-(Xt-

(M.t

(1_,.. t ........... _'_ i) {,:_. _, 'i."" _,.".

(2/_

.ex}_ort _romotien

:_os_tive

t_'b:_ _ expert

value

the

(.i:_t.rv!.

.[./'/

•

e•t:_;; TM,_. Mt

,r.i.gh't. ha.n:d.."s£de of effect•iD

_real terms;,

promo.t.ior',effec-t..for first

,_ T _ . ,_,_-H I) -_._,_ .=.._,_ ).+

_, pt._ ] Xt ....

fi.rs_/ terl_, on

term, a.djust_

" "-" i.,2 _.; {Xi"'" X_z"

•

•_i.ves.the

_ [

(Pt ?< -

.....1 ': (N'_'-M_i.k (Pt '_'_

The

(X_ .... t([_'- Xt H ] _ t }11 -

a f t e r.

_:wc terms

eq!..lation 4. the

second

price.char_ges0

indicate

ex-post

%:'he next

two

world•export•

terJ_s:

de•Fan@ "

changes

X_L _' : •>. XtH _ thep_,actual _

(?ow

,?.i) in,.*.liC::_/t.e t-be eflfect on

ex_t?rt "

t.'-'.'PS

" ..

" ec_ia]-

t_'_ing_ bein 9

•

a wors_-tha_.-trend

.[ii

.. substit_./_..ion

• ..

t?rade hal_ante.

iteg-s

_- and

'e.ffec-t

cai _E.].a.L,e_' ..... the _. • .• .-. ,2 _

<:_.t, the

impli_-s

-,,

_",;a.xar, Ce

c.f

:.(items

. ? a.r_.)_).-<._*,_ the

_.::; the

Pt m

'. •

.i_pac:t

"cirow';2i_ - " rate" • _,n "

!arger-th.ar_.--trend

Fin all'. -_ V , _he

and

t.he I_rade

iDet_}4een, the. hv_¢;tiietic.al-

trade

caicuiated A

the

bala.nce.._c._ .... t_ tha"t: the f_gain.st tke

t:-end

trade . .

-'._:_:_ms. of t::R_de

vaiues

ex_rts

c0mm'a,dJ..ty ter_r.'_of •trade

.frc._, P t _ . > Pt T_4 an_ from

e,::.or.(:,my_

D& ]. a._,,;:e cet erz.s p__[;j:_£_!_ ..

" :_-'.h_r_" t}_. " _-:t_'ms J.a.s__ two . _-_._r-r'._s _._

worse-than-trend

> Pt. m , or ....

i_r,dtrend

hy_'_,-.,-_.-._;ical imports:,

res'u it$ in. a. wo.rse -t ha.._<,-.. '_rend" trade

re._u_t

bi_ >

nat;Lor_a].._.:;.o_m.,<;._ " '' " .(as tran_lat.,ed

,&. f a s[ e:r-th;_. _.-t.reD d

t.her_:_for.e a

imports.

b'-_._,.._..,_ ....... ....... e e .ns-ues :,. (_tt_er .thi_ngs

_.½;CWt.'h.c;f tb_._ csoss_

t'hls

" . .... 1;_'_e di_'fere_0_t_..al bet.we_i"} ttbe:•,_ct_.a.' ,str,dtrend

imports).

effect

t.<..a., _- t •

t.h.e d;i. fferen.tial

effect

• .

Row

and

,-_

a- be_tte-_-_h..-._.n--_ar_-_nd. "trade:.: ba-].a_.ce.

being • equal.

into

H.[}_' , a. w6rse-_";_han'-<__,_r,dtrade

rates •

',2-..

T,} .,,. -._m_:. I_i _:•-_,.,_..,.,,..._.otez t.,,;_ > #"i=' {_ a._. .

¢:(;'_tr-"ibut,_s to

import.

t::', ........ ,.,.-.-_).¢:_±a_._£-.. ;Import ..

•

--l:

•

substitation

. _ •

.. ..-.

(i:oe , .._.-• _.. , . •

th,is ;./_ou,]id lead-to

•

ROW

_:;r2c,rm.anc:e 'wc..,.u". _9•be" .._." .._._ ...............n ,.a_.; _ _,_.._'..." . . " ..

• ...

..... "_'_ exj_or .... ,. Other

tmend

_-:'=r'_." ,_._•:_•_'s ""'"];_." exp,':';).-'ts

Pr._ _: "" _ t 'i_x , 0_.. ,f_"c,m .Pt X

,_..:rise-.in import a _asre.z

•

.and can

<Pt. Tx

prices

than

export .

pr!ces• relativ6

to tr-i'::&_d ,'-_=l._ _

•

-._._"-As.E_uatios

[

.-.

-4 indicete'_ _, •the .... det._ri<.ratior. ir_ the .

. .

.traSe-.reia:t_Lve"to..

•

-- .....

_,_;)rs_.-t.ha"n-

.:..

Na_'a

.:.•

[ "98.3 ) apg]ied

the

._....

B -,__ ........_

''_

_h,:-Phih.p---

,...

_J-spart: Of . . .

payme.nt_

cemparativ_:

_-;t'_d:y . .. ]o.f .the

effect.s..:of- ex__ernal

shocks-

among'

and

"ceuntrie.s

_?f

- -

_ T"his

._eze

.,..

trade

-_mp_a"-_d _ T ...... "_

the

cop_:er,

;. -

. .-

]iSt_g,

Wood .

_.ndbags_

and

@¢_ods, . ._... •

Th:e

nop-oil .

on. few

above

comm_,dity

The

most

nct

cc,mpiet.ely

important

e×haus_2..exp.erts

,amiSs].on

is.speciai

and tran-

.... .

. .

sa-ctions .

..-

•

. ,

c%'n_umer.goods.

bu_,e-_,er, does

imports.

. :.

_capital . . .-

im porz_; _ _-r,_. corn puted

cOmmodity"g,i_o,aps: .

-_ matexr..i_is, oil.)-aDd

dess$cated.

. .

NE$;::-f,:_rni_!ure_. _- .o--_e..ods and t__.l.

.['.

, ..

following

cakei

olvwo'_d/Iogs,:!umber,..

-..

cloth.ir_g. " H.ypo_;h.ettcal and. trend the .

a _d.

;_..)l_.o_,ia.g c-ommodi__ies:

abdc_;

more..

m_..al and

... .

. . .- ..

manu)[actureS).

_..

banana:; . :

.at.- a

ba!a_ c..e_... H ypo_}',eticM

• "

•

-<be • m.eth.odology

.co¢,_.nut oil, copra

....

c.oconut,

.. :"

•

sug_r,.co.F.ra, .

. .a_}_!ies

]._v_;I ¢,f th_

exp-orts ....

..: ..

disaggrega_ed.trend ....

: .

" ._analy_ .

. ..-

-paper

Asia..- . The

how e.ver 2i.sa:ggre:_.atffve_ .:

...

. .

._h:e.deve_bping .

f.g_"

..pOiki.Cy--._.es.pOn_ea.

..•

o . _,

DaL_n ..... of"

• .

"'._)

. - ..

OF :2H_7MFF£HOiDOiOGY

- .

•

balari;:e.

APPLICATION-

pines

o.F'

tre_._.d cont_rlk.,,.:testoward-a. .

-trerd tl"ad_:

.. •

¢.c_.m terms, •, .,_-cd._ty ,.

trade;

the

other

c_nissions

are

the

-tior.al agriculture},

other

ncn-trad_-

. _

mining,

and

manufactured

goods

" ..

exp¢;rt_. "

•

in .6rder

£C! m.ak.e 'the..:agaregatedresults

•••-••

of the

study

•.•

compirable

t_: the ...-_,._gre.gat_veresu!ts.=Ofi= .N-aya".:an_

Kim,

• •• • - .•

b' Dothet_cal of

.e_xp0rt$ .were.-Cal_ula-_.-._d .ui_/._i_%be .average

P_/ippine

•basis)

e.xports.to.,

w orld-expor_s.:_(;oD

duriDg./.).9.7_-.ig"-?3-except -_

average

of .

.--

••

•

for

• :

.-_,;97.1.._ah_i.i-973 shares • ••• ..... •

- ....

•••

•_

ex.por_

(by

on;iy) and

•

• •_

_• •

k_eca.use Of

•• •

_•-•••

• •

piroducts', :-banaDas

•-•

"f" • " .

.••- •

•

• • .

._ef0re =

used

1948..-.-:

fo::

coc0nu.t

•

. .

•

sugar,

Ph_ilippir,e

de_./..ate-_.crld

••

•

•-- •

world

and

Phi[i_pine •

expor{

data

•pric e •inclices, w ere

-'•--•-

e.xp.ort •

data

•

used

. -

or.. furniture_

•.[••

•

and .:h:!0£hing. •The

.on ..a.Weishted

.average

0f-.j.a!pan

.prices

and

U_S. '-.producer

•

import

prices..

" as

• _•

exchange.rate

••[. -_

changes

••_ .

ibet-ween _the

U.S.

expor_

•

adjusted, =••

and

for ._ _•.

_Japan. •

••

_ .

i(trans-

•.•

prices,

•-

_ :-

• -

w_ere -based

logs

•

t[ra_vel gOOds[andih_-r_dbagr_•,

actions)

export-

•. •

" U .S. -Dr_ucer_s

•

/•

export

•-•

t:.c)aeflate

.the:

used. to d_iflate =w-orld 'and .Ph_ippine • = . . • • .. . •

_roducts,

•

d"_:ting 1969-.

prirc.es ;(.e;:g2,-.pri_c_-i_de._: 'of-'. p-hilippJae

1. w ere

of .forest

•based. on

: •

. .

•

Tokyo

"values "

•

prices", we.re .u._ed

. .

WorId

. of . w or14.

. - . /-"

were

ab!_.ca[ £o. deflate .

•

•data_.

•

w orl.d ._xpo.rts

. • "

and.

world

•.

•__ .

- • ....

•_• •••

is .

....

U:r;i.t va-lue_'-i.[_dice.s Were - • .•

but

....

. _.

_navaiia_=i)2,ity_.of. data

data

• •

maI_-ufacz.u,_edexporl/s

•••

(which •

. . •_

hhe

,_,alue.s of.:..the-aghcultural=.

aver_ ge. a.nfiual gx_0.wthi r_hes-of

•••

c-opper

_]uzing - 196.3-:i..973._ Trend

=••

- :

.....

.nonti-adi_ional

1973

commodit-.))

-.....

the

a-c.om.m_dity

. -> [ -_- _ .-.. ".... • 5:. " were._bas-aa-. o-n:., the -t_rend .grc wth rates •• -,• •- _ •

exports

lo.gs. "(.which

__',e. 'i_173 ..share..only _.. ?Tr._nd<

. :• • •

...

....

•:_le_ w orid

,.the. ma_ket

and

Phi_.i.ppit_e _-,, ×_z_oz.-...-. r_te used

desslcat_!.d. Co_;_?.t; •

•

e_por_

and

banangs

•

market.

used.was

.•

•{except.cottbn

taken

abaca,

the

• ••

For:-_i_"I_"• :P.ra._e _;.ear.b',:_o}t,.

Wer_

from

•-.

•

F.A

determine.

" .i--_ _,or-.sv-_ar . •o _r_,a,_,_ i co.[3.r!_._,,__conut oil,. copra

meal/cake,

.the

•'i •

the

•

L> r

••

werldex,port_.of

w0zld

vegetable

• -

fibre

_•

• ••-

'-: . _ ••

ju_te); t!_.e.:-_xpo_,_,:i data-.w.a)_ deflated by a zhe "'_ "" . • wo:c._a price: c,_',£ _.aal. The source of"w ei.ghted ,avera-.ge bf..tbe unit _zp, ort_ v_lue Of a _ _O_,._/" " "..datafor [.

and .: 'and

•

: . • . "

f_bre._i_ • • the ..

vegetable

U °, _ _.

$_a_istica... and

• gec_;i_._de. of

.of

•• ••:•.•

.p_._u '_-;

c.op_er

.... _'*':_.o._. _- ,and the

•

• •

•

: _971 "•:

_atie

•

•-•

•

-:•

•

:_c!0thing

were

-, =

c:n

Ph)Zippir:e

••

base:d

: .du)i.ng •

e=r'_dworld

The

g_ark.et shares

a}_d lumber],

and

•

• •

on- data

in the. U. No

_ ,

_f.

•

.$t.ati.stic__ . •.D.ab!g_

[;.

iPhilippinei.:-

.pr.odu.___tS_on(a.v,2r,_g e

.......... ...... _.,_,:.',.=,_ .:_oc, d_

••

•

- :P.hili.ppi_e:'eNports . ,

-• • •

Trade

'," '-," _ _ ", _ .... r_

•

__.

••

so_¢,:ce ol dat_

•

.for.,forest • •

•copper, production.},s. ,(.,:om_mo_l.___c y. 'fearbook_

..e_.;_og_ __ to

. •

197_}.,- '_,_he

using

•

prcduc_.i0,h - t.o. w c;:_::],d copper •

. • •.

copper

•.

_opper

-O.f cop,p.'._r were of COp_ser

_the. . ratio., of...Ptilio_iZe. .... :• .

.Philippine

•

dat_..!inLjA,a_'_...;Ous," • _-,..n_:: .hvT_othetic.ai l:,r,_a._._,pg;._J_e .ezF.ort

•.

•

fro-_i.-the.trend, w0Xid.... _.p=oduction

the.... produc:V

Trade

.trend, •valu, es_"of,

comp{_ted, ._. :

...

¥:_-:'..... _..._,.r._J...,.._,_. ." "......... ._£ .. _ ure..qn

to" world

Y earbook

F-orei_.

. .

•

, g:.ves- _h-e expOrts_., by

average

share_

c.om m odit.y

o.f- "

groups

" 197 1= i9"73 o "

...

•-

•..

_ .

• •-f

. . _•

•-

;••

Tah!e

Sha:ce

9_ Phlx_|.,p_r,e ' '• " Expcrts

{Aver:_ge

!_:, ",I-1973.

_:o ',Jor]@ Exports

in perc_nt).

AVE'RA_,E SHA_E

Sl,g'ar

ray' Centrifugal

£.8?

Copra. Cc,co:_ut .';il

69.62 51 c I

Copra Meal/Cake 3essicated Co::onut Bananas _a,;a a

44.94 56.24 3 o77 6.8 _

Copper b . _ c Lumber

8.10 23.75 2.70

}'iywood e Wood manufactures, Furniture Travel goods Cloth ingr

ashare" cotton

ratio

and bThe cf

2.94 1.42 0.11

N.E.S.

and

handbags

•world

0.51 0.06

exports

vegetable

fibre,

except

jute, average Philippine

production and to world copper CAverage veneer-logs

during 1971-1973 copper exports

th_ _atio of the production. of

non

1971

ind

Ig73

of the product to Phil/ppir, e

P_uil/ppine

to. world

exports

eshare

to world

expc_'ts

c,f veneezs_

fShare

garment

copper

of the copper

production

world.export_

c:,f

confr.

dshare

Excludes

(%)

worl'_ cx]_rts

J.umber

exports on

r, on

plywood,

clothing

ccrsign_ent

_har_d

basis.

confr. _tc.

_ot

f_r.

THE

RESULTS

Table

hypothetical

prese_._-s

exports

traditional

for

the

sugar as

export

the

did

furthermore,

the

oil,

copra

true

for

recorded)

while

market

share.

eMpected, for

commodities, fastest furniture, Philippine

to near

wood

fibre

the

and

the

{except

coconut

increased in

the

registered world

exports

of The

(as

coconut same

the

end

the

terms

p_rformed

better

growth-of world

jute); i_s table

(by

world An

both

share.

The

(i.e.,

marked

than

trade

i.e.,

market

officially

improved

bullish and

world

by-products

exports

ir_ the

cotton

exports

clothing) share

abaca

deceleration

the Philippir,e growing

and

are,

seventies

sugar

exf>orts

exports

export

seventles;

coconut.

log

major

late

early

ins iq_r_ificance

Bc.th copper

copper

the

and

results

v¢';lume

world

exporI::_" to

w_%ere

The

and to

the

dollar

mid-and

ar,d dessicated

processed,

given

the

expcrts_

U.5.

The

sky,re

copra

exports.,

dcreased

vegetable

from

sixties

performance

meal/cake,

decade

de=:and

_-te

_-e_d

prices.

during

Philippine

shift

wood

_sed

surprising.

grow

the

the Th£

reflects

not

e:.:po':ts to

._xport_--_ of

1971-19_3

not

during

declined.

t_'end

commoditie-_,

part,

export%

exports

average

most

fast

_'a°c:io_. of' actual

exports,-actual

hypothetical

values

the

rise

commodity),

bananas, in

the even

though

world

export_

did

not

•

peziod.

The

conductors,

two

fast-.as.., during .,

:_ost

arid .sub.-contracted .Nonetl}eless,

-Philippine..

S;_mised--

_hat

mark'_4_.y. ._:._.°_-. - __oue-,.for .

.•. _

Table

2. presents •

.trer_d-. import 1974-

the

ratios

. •

iat the

198.1... The .t, abl_

xndicates,

•

-...

equality

.e__.ne= :_'" oil . or

•capital.: ... .

oftoi=al

_on_-oil • "

real

.. [

trend

g£owth

rates

consumer .share

goods of

imports

cor!sumer ex_end] .

con_umptioI_,

_.S

reai

equality

•

.GN:P.. Sy;_othet,ica!

•

cal.culate?d

_,_,ased-on .the._average

_'oods..im.p.oz'ts: t_ires. during "

...

•

nea=

'.." '_rend.. _ports

ana

the

a_mpo_.:s z_sf!?_c_s . i:he near " " ....

_ateriai

•.

" of _ actua._

• ..

J.y-;_egi'stez-ed, a ,

and ':raw'.

f_r

.m_p,

imporhs.-..No.tet_a"t

and.

actual

of_ hyp.o._,.[.e_,_ca_ " t' _-_ "-' iF._p0r.ts a_d '... ..

p_ices)

t.he rise. xli rea,.x._t__pox..tu i.

.t.-

•.

declir.i.n N share

tha_2..it .was..capi.t,kl goods

•

_.aterials, • .

of .-_71-]973.

_Ccounted-for

t-o

total

:persona.l

_:,_e :x,_e_.ri_od; ' thus,

the

Table

- , .--

3 •indicates

that-there •

...

trend

thephase

• ,,.

.(The

•

value

of t

con-_sumer

•

±mpc_rt_

-_aS

. • .

- • .

by-..u_ing_ the! '-:a_ie_a-ge..g_-o_f,,h -zCate of :rea_ .cgnsumer ...

•.

imports

during

_ical. val_es. •-

dtfri:ng

obtained

Of,

co_sum.p_.i.o.)_ .expenditur:_s

1974-iqt1._.

a,!_o a-decline.:i_: •

.i_-..T_oz'.t_')tototal_rsona.l

-... - ....

_-as

average

• ._ .. •

which

t_....

of. _,_c..__al.,. hypot_,.t._c_l

vai_es

•

the.

._hese . -

raw

.tnC.i.ud,_d .in

com_,oditie

ba,<_e

garrr]enkts),ire! not l.t can

al=_,

the

. :

:,:@/_port_-:(i._,:.; s:elt'ri, .. .. ..

impoFtent

the'.-tab[::_

•

9row I as

•

1963-1973. of 'consumer

• Because

the.-t_end

i_,p_orts used

different . . • ._..

. .

•

. .

a,n_.h.ypothe.b_%ses., _he-

T_b1_ _.

_at_io_. of ._.c.t_i.-.':_.._ .......... _.,_,t.,._-_._ ...... _..... " ..a_a:T_en4 Export.

" " -Va !.u_s, -by_ Cor_n0di t %_-, "19 ;4_- _. 9 _ _ .•

•

... _

. . -

.., .

_.-

• ..... _.--'_T. _.. - _ --__--_-_

..-._!"

•.'

•"

•" : ._;-E_.aC;E -R_TTOS. 1_:_.-_9";i7 _9-7s.-_, eeo • ',ge_-l_a2

_ .-

..-iActual/i!ypothet -

ical '

•

--- .-"

,94

..•....

'J66

.,75

.57

•

ACtial/T:__e.nd•

I",0 I.

i.H_pothetical/Trend

- "

I '09

,86

.8.6 i

• ....

... co_ra- '

.... -

.. A_tua I/HyF_ t_hetical -. ._ .- .........

...

....

•

.. 49

56 ..

- "

,48 -

=,4,7 . L

,83

.95.

J •.

• "/'

? " • .

•

:.I"., 0,3_."

...Oil

-_-' I-,. 0 # .... _.

•H_,_othetica!/Tre.t_d _.. Coconut

.,96 ....

Actua I/T_e nd • .._ :i.. .... •

,...-

Actual/Hypothetical,'

11.._ 15

i .33 •

I.., 35

I I

..-

: ..

- .-

_ -

.... ACt _a_./s.r_Dd -

. •

Hypo_he_

•

- "

.Act__ai/Hypo.thetical . . • . .-

•

.. I _2,7 "

I, 82 .:

i..-09-

1 _23

!. 35

" 1 03

1,07

1.08 .-:

_.-

.0,95_

0,;90-

c..

• ACt_ial,/Hypohhetxcai: Actu._i/Tr-&,nd . HyDot_?etical./Tre_d • -

.0._ 80

. .

[_'_S sitar e.d_Coconut"-.

_-L.

.I.,30 ..

...

I.. 76

:...

.....

-.Hyp_tbeti-ca i/'?9er,d

. ..

•

"i.,77 ..

..-.

•"_ .- .

ActuaT/T.rend -.

Meal/Cake.: .

•

I.-. 45

•

. •

. :

iCa I/'_.r.end.

!, C gpra

.. :

.j" _

- I. 02 "

1 , 12

1'. 0B

I- 1.4

] •30.

I;31.

I, 12

I "16-

I.21

_ _

- •

i'"

• . -

" •.

•

. L

-.I2:

.- "

?a:D!e •2

..-

" "

Bana

-.:... _.:

• .. •

. . •

-"]

.HypothetJ

197_-I780

e;t.ica]_ i.97

C. _9,.

...

0;93.

...•

...

. ..

. ¥

".. 0-95:

0.97

1.04

_:'_ • ..

...

.--:

9_. Veneer,

. ..

" .

• .

,.38 --.. ,,

-. ..

-- 1.3 l.

. -

,=-.

... .. _"

3. __ "_-

•

....

. .

'"i, .

•

. .

2.15

2.54

Pl V,_ood.z-_et c".... . :_

, 0,73

/%ctual,/Hypotheticail. • • . . .. :'..-

_ ....

-_-..

....

...

.. . _ • _.. ... . Actual/_.ren_.,. , , ,.. •

1 1,9 . ..

"-. : -

.. .,." 0 "-_.80 ', ._.. _.. ..

. .

"Hypoth'etical/Trend..

... . 1.09 •.

. ..

1 : 24

-].

.. _

0.85 •

, ,_ :.,,,,0.76 .

.0_72 - "" . . .

-.. •

0.61-

.."

co k

10.woo

. c_ aa._/Hypotbet:tcal

,0 : 90

. 10

...

':Actual/Trend-

,,,

HYP°thet-ical/Trend

...

i.0

- " "-.. 0.92

0.94

.- • -

H_ypot-,he'ti¢_!/Tre.',nd :: " .. _

0.94

. -,.,

..,

• .

•-

. _

...," . ".

Actual/Tre_,d ...

1-:38*

•

_ .....

. •

•

._"

.:..

. 1.47

.'.-

....

.__

Actue_.I/Hy_othetical_ -

•

']_.01

- .......

._"-8. Abaca. "

...

•

0.77

..... •

. ". ._

. Hypothe£_q:-ca.l-/Trend.. [

: I._2 •. ...-

" -0.,.:.'.]5 -.. .. .: . ..:; .....

,thetical

•. --

-I.:-7S

Act___al/Trend_."-,. . ._ . -_ ... •

2.2z.

-- . -_.

." _ .

...

.... •

•

.."

I.)6

. -

Actu

. -:

!98%-1982

. ".

Cai:/'Trend • . ,........

7; ?Co_,p_-'_r

...

. .

" .. •

" : NVERA,;E.- R3TI:_S.

...

" .'.

:-A_tual/Trend •.

- .-

., _97_-I_77

_A.ct'-i.ai:/Hypoth,

•.-

':._. .-.---

.--..

. . •"

_ ..'.- ,......

.-;-."

•

. "..._ . _.

Cont: •i•:•.•i

,.,, ., I ._05 " 0.60.

t. i0 ..

0.77

0.88 0.60

- 0,.? E

• • =

....

.. -.

:: .

. ....

. .

.'":

: ._. .. ....

-.-.. -" ..

.:...,.

:._

- .

:. -.

•

. .

:'...

•

.•

1984-1982

.._:i:: :- ': : . ....

.: - ...

.- _... . . ,

• Act ua l)'T._iend .,"

'" - _ - -

_c_l/Hy_._theti._a.].

• _

' ....

• • _.. ...

.. 2 = 2E'

5, _:4-

?. 12

!.63

_.76 _.

_i_+ 60

0.39

:P+.76

•

_ .

2°clot. i_±n_-I__0!: 0_.Fur .

..-.

- Hypot:hetic_._/Tr.end .

•

..gurnit _re ....-....:---__ -: -

. •

: ......

:..', e47 _-. _ _?;e,_

19_._ <_77

• -.

A'_ERAC;E',rc4TIOS

-..-

'".-..

.._

.....

. ..:

•ACt,u_ I/HyF_fh¢_.hi_:al _ . ..-..

•

••6.83

15 ,2 3

r,,d, l..

..-:

Actual/Trend •

. ...

" ..

Hs'po_he-_ic_,i/TreDd -_ -

-_0, .87

. -=

. •

-.. .,

2_ 54

-_,¢2_

,..

: .

0° _6

-:. .ACe.ual/T)erid •

" .

•

- 2,25

- 0.82-

.0,88

0.9.9

0.60

... _

0.51

•_]5,_,othelicai/:Pre:id .:

.- .-

.. •.

...

....

. .. -

19_

oniy.

. ....

-._

= •

•

..-

"-AGtual/'_'7;._>th_tical

n.d. .-

.. -

. __ .

_ __;_

¢_,( .. •

n.d. ._

.. : ...

. :L_ .

•..

... . •

...

. .:.

13.:Tr-_vel GOOd_; and-Handba

•

• . .

.. 12-_72

5,_)3

..L . - .

. : . ..

. ..

• .

...

" .

-= = : ... •

_.:.-

... •

.=.

=.. • ":...

= •

-. -:. =

. .

•Ta_,.],e_"3. Rs:tie_..Of. Actual± . - _'alv,.es_._ by

}_y_cth_ttita..l_

and"Tr_.nd

....

"...

...... .____,__

...................... .____ .......... _-_ ........................ •

......

import.

!;o_mtodi.ty Gzro.':._5_ ]9'7_- 198 ] ..

...

..1974-1.976

.]?,78 1979..1980-19gi

•L

,____Dital Gc,ods •

. ...

..._."

•-

.._.

• < _. • .. "

y-.

• .

-...

Ac_ua],.-/Tren-d.. i.-... : -;." .....!., 50 • ... .: ... ...

_ ['.

Mineral

. _

"" ... _-

...

": :_.I.00

. :.. ....

i.01

1.01

. ...

. •

;,c_aX./Hy;_othe._i.:-,c__t.; ._.,.03, .... :O.ga "- : :.. .

. ..-

•"

:.Actual/Trend..-.

. .

' .:.

•

-.: 0.94

1:.00

.] . -=;

.- .

i.-

. .. .

ConE, umer . • . :

.Go0ds-• .

. .-

!. 04.. -.

0 99.

•

. . ...

. :,_.... ..

'-.

._'_

•..

-_. 26

. . ."

'1..1I__ -

:. ._..,.:

_ •

.- -.

_..

;., :.. 1..26,_.

'Hypoth_t_icai/Trend

:.: ...

: 0 -89 .... ..

....

1.0 1 .

I. • 00. " ..

:...

[- -

0._7

:1.01 "

_..

•.: 0.86

1.00.

•"

Actual/Trend

'--

: •

_ -

Actual/Hypothetical •

• 1.01

- 1 C1 _

. .

.... " __

• I..0:4

_ . .

'_.0_

._..

•

,:•

.... Hy, pothet;ical-/Tzehd;

Q'.89 ,

....

.'_"

. -...::. - .1 .. ..... •-

'.. .

I.2)_-

....

.I...22

...

•: ._

._ • .. •

. .'..

-_',. =.

......-..

...

.. --

...

....

• . "

. .-.... "

_--._-. ....._......... .......... ;__._ ........ ;_._.=_ ..-

•

...

- Abt::ua!/Tre_e_-,

. ..

0.76

.....

....

'Act_ai.)'Hypc_thetiCa] .... . .

. " _...

• . :_

. "

Raw."Materia:l. • '.

_.'_5 . .

.-'" ..

•

1.03

gypot/._etical/rgrend • - _Non-oil.

_ ..

."..-

. .

I. 32 ..,.

• . "

.: •

_ _" _._ ._ _: ". _u_.xs & "Lmbr-ican___

---

-_ •.

Hypothetical/Trend • _

! .42

...

.. ..

•

-...-

. .

•.rat.io of

hypc_-theniCa% ..

£0

trend

values

_.&y not..he

close,

.....

...

ut.it',._nli_:_ the re:_t.-of ir,',_/_-ts).. . "..... .. : _-.-._ .i • . - :. .. . ... . ./ " " _-. ...._ -. . -

.. - -

• ":

:"" • ..

" •

" _.[.abl...... _ " a. -pre.._en-.ts.the

-ba.la_;¢:e(ad_ust_d. .. -.:.. -

•.

"[_.

-cond_ition.s,

: .

fo ! ..'.tre..nd- in.to •

•

..'-..

" "

•

_be

r.rade .

e_pc.rtt_:pr-omqti6n._.

...

..i

....

•.

.._..

• "'i.

d-&.z.;ompcsitioniof"._.ne

;'. _..

the• . .- 4-f.I;:e.d:_of. c'hancies . -.. .. -.. . .

_ •

._•

._effects,

in"f0=eign.-exp,_..r_ -" .

.."

.the:.:im-port. subst_tutio.n

• -: -'..

demand

•

effect,

..:. .

•

.-.

the. inc-.on,e.:.-

. --

" effect

. ._..

£mportS.

. .

balanc__ .

. • :'.

•

.iof.trade.

b ia_.ee), . _

. . .-"

._: .. .....

0f- the-exDOrt

:-. -

- . ..

...

j . [-

. - •

• . _'. _ "._

"_.." . •

deficit_

except

. --- . -

contribute_ i

.. ..

terms

trade

.:[=

-.. -

.•

.--

.. _

'. :

..._

.._ - ..

the

world

Phi!ippines

m_ch... _raae

exDor£ s,

• ..

-I.9631-1973 9eriod

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REFE_._NCES

Balassa, B., "The Countries after Archly 1981.. de

N'ewl:y

i_,dustriali.z_ng Developing .the Oil C_ci_is ", Weltwirchaftliches

Leon, E. Z. External }_ublic Indebtcd.n._ss in 'Recent History and _'utu_ oil _c,_:r:ded Opti_l Dnpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Yale University,

Naya,

"Effects

Payments, Developing Philip Dine

External

Shocksc,n

_he

Mexico: Growth, 19_,i.

B_lonce

Policy Responses and Debt Problem5 of Ac;._D_'. Coun_"rl.es_" Paper presented before the Economic Sc_:iety, Dece,_er _.9_3.