Total
3.1%
Construction
12.1% 1.0%
Manufacturing Information Financial Activities
7.1% -2.1%
Leisure & Hospitality Other Services
6.0% -0.9%
Government
1.5% 4.4%
Education/Health Services Natural Resources Professional/Business Services
DASHBOARD
12.2% -0.6%
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14%
November 2022 3.6%
3.4% 3.1%
The Road to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s economic outlook. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
US
Utah
THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:
1
Utah’s unemployment rate lowest in nation. Utah’s October unemployment rate of 2.1% is the lowest in the nation, tied with Minnesota. October continues a 20-month trend of an unemployment rate below 3.0%.
2
Inflation peaked at 9.0% in June and still remains high at 7.6% in October. Inflation has now fallen for four consecutive months showing signs that price increases may be moderating.
Unemployment Rate October 2022
Consumer Sentiment Rises. Utah’s consumer sentiment rose from 63.9 in September to 66.0 in October. Nationwide sentiment also rose slightly over the prior month suggesting a slightly better outlook.
Year-Over Job Change October 2022
3.8% 4.1%
3
Inflation remains high.
3.9% 2.3%
3.0% 2.9%
3.5%
2.4% 2.4%
4.6%
2.1%
3.6%
4.0% 3.9%
4.3%
3.6%
2.1% 3.3%
4.2%
2.9%
4.5%
2.7%
4.5% 3.0%
4.4% 4.0%
3.0% 4.2% 4.6% 4.0% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.8% 4.0% 3.3%
2.1%
3.8%
USA 3.7% VT NH MA CT RI NJ MD DC DE
2.3% 2.4% 3.5% 4.3% 3.4% 3.5% 4.5% 4.8% 4.3%
1.7%
3.1%
4.0% 3.5%
3.0%
2.1%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
3.0%
3.6% 2.0%
3.5% 2.7% 3.4% 2.4% 2.8% 2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% 2.5% 3.5% 4.2% 3.9% 2.1% 2.3% 4.2% 2.3% 4.3% 0.0% 5.4% 2.8% 5.2%
2.7%
2.4%
2.9% 3.2%
USA 3.4% VT NH MA CT RI NJ MD DC DE
1.8% 2.2% 3.9% 2.4% 2.4% 4.1% 2.2% 1.3% 2.6%
4.2%
3.4%
Unemployment Rate
4.2%
2.8%
4.8%
Job Growth
0.0%
5.4%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Year-Over Job Change November 2010 – October 2022
Utah Year-Over Job Change by Industry October 2022 Total
3.1%
Construction
12.1% 1.0%
Manufacturing Information
7.1% -2.1%
Financial Activities Leisure & Hospitality
6.0% -0.9%
Other Services Government
1.5% 4.4%
Education/Health Services Natural Resources
12.2%
US
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 – August 2022
2.7% Sanpete
$1,500 Residential 2.8% Beaver
Non-residential
4.1% Piute
$1,000 3.9%2.2% $ Millions
2.8% Emery
2.8% Sevier
2.1%
4.5% 3.0%
2.4% $500 3.8% Washington
$ Millions
$1,000
3.5% Uintah
3.3% Carbon
2.2% Millard
1.7%
2.8%
Other
2.4%
4.2% 3.0% San Juan
2.0%
2.7%
3.3% Grand
4.6% Wayne
5.9% Garfield 3.6% 2.7%
3.5%
3.4% 2.4% USA 3.4% 2.7% 3.2% 4.2% 3.2% VT 1.8% 3.0% 2.5% 3.5% 4.0% 4.2% NH 2.2% Unemployment Rate3.9% 3.5% 2.1% 2.3% MA 3.9% 3.0% 4.2% 1.9% 5.9% 2.3% CT 2.4% $0 M A M J J A S O N5.4% D J F M A M0.0% J J A S 4.3% O N D J F M A MRIJ 2.4% J A Source: Utah2020 Department of Workforce2021 Services 2022 NJ 4.1% 2.8% 5.2% MD 2.2% 2.4% DC 1.3% DE 2.6% 2.8% Kane
3.1%
2.9% 3.2%
$500
65% $400
64% 63.4% $300 63%
$
4.5
4.0%
900
800 600
Job Gr 200
U.S.
60.2%
Utah
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O 2020
2021
0
2022
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
2020
2021
2022
Source: UtahRealEstate.com
5 5.4% 68.0%
$20
400
62.3% 4.8%
2.1%
62% $200
900
ions)
0.0%
3.4%
Unemployment Rate
$0
$30
3
3.6% 2.3% 2.1% 3.0% 4.1% M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 2020 2021 2022 3.3% 2.9% 2.4% 4.4% 4.2% 3.5% 4.0% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 2.4% 2.9% 4.6% 3.0% 4.2% USA 3.7% 2.1% 4.6% 4.0% 3.6% 2.7% 4.0% VT 2.3% 2.8% 2.6% 3.9% Utah Median Home Sales Price NH 2.4% 3.8% 3.5% 3.6% January 2020 September3.4% 2022 3.9% – 4.3% MA 3.5% 3.3% 69% 68.3% 2.7% CT 4.3% 68.0% 2.9% 3.8% $600 68% RI 3.4% 4.0% $490,000 NJ 3.5% 3.3% 67.4% 67% MD 4.5% $500 4.5% 2.7% DC 4.8% 66% DE 4.3%
$0
61% $100 60%
$40
$10
3.8%
4.2%
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
69% Job Growth 68.3% 68%
Other Sales Price ($ thousands)
2.3% 2.9% Wasatch Duchesne
Non-residential
$50
2.1% Summit
2.0% Juab
Iron
Residential
Sales Price ($ thousands)
2.1% Utah
$60
$1,500
1.9% Cache 2.46% Rich 2.3% Weber 2.1% Davis 2.0% Morgan 4.4% Dagget 2.3% Salt Lake
2.5% Tooele
4.8%
Utah
Utah Unemployment Rate October 2022
2
2.3% 2.4% 3.5% 4.3% 3.4% 3.5% 4.5% 4.8% 4.3%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.6%
2.2% Box Elder
3.7%
3.1%
Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
3.1%
Tra
3.4%
-0.6%
Professional/Business Services
3.4%
12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14%
Profe
800
2.5
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION 4
2.0
0
U.S. Inflation Consumer Price Index Year-Over Change January 2000 - October 2022
Consumer Confidence October 2020 – October 2022 100
10%
Residential Residential Residential
Non-residential Non-residential Non-residential
U.S.
Other Other Other
Utah
$600 $600
$490,000 $490,000 $490,0007.8%
8% $600
$500 $500
6% $500
Sales Price thousands) Sales Price ($ thousands) Sales Price ($($thousands)
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500
$400 $400 $400 $300 $300
$1,000 $1,000 50 $1,000
Millions $ Millions $$Millions
4% 2%
$300 $200 $200 0% $200 $100 $100
$500 $500 $500
0
O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O 2020 2021 2022
-2%
O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O $0 $0 M A M2021 2020 2022 M A M J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA $0 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022
Labor Force Participation Rate
$100 $0 $0
2003
2008
2013
2023
J F M A M J J A S J F M A M J J A S 2022 JJ2022FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS 2022 2022
Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2020 - October 2022
10% January 2020 – September 2022
69% 69% 68.3% 8% 68.3% 69% 68% 68% 68.3% 6% 68% 67.4% 67% 67.4% 67% 67.4% 67% 66% 4% 66% 66% 65% 65%
68.0% 68.0% 7.8% 68.0%
900 900 900 800 800 800 600 600 600
2% 65% 64% 64% 63.4% 63.4% 64% 63.4% 63% 0% 63% 63% 62% 62% -2% 62% 61% 61% 60% 61% 60%
62.3% 62.3% 62.3%
2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 U.S. Utah 60.2% U.S. Utah 60.2% Recession J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M U.S. J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O J F M A 60.2% M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S Utah O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O 60% 2020
400 400 400 200 200 200 00 J J F F MMAA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO 2021 2022 0 2020 2020 2021 2022 J F MA M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
JJ2020 FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ2021 FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ2022 FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO 2020 2021 2022 Note: The2020 y-axis starts at 60% to better2021 illustrate changes in the labor2022 force participation rate Source: United States Bankruptcy Court
Source: United States Bankruptcy Court
Utah Taxable Retail Sales 55 January 2020 - August 2022
SLC International Airport Passengers January 2020 - September 2022 2.5 2.5
2020 2020
5
2.5
44 4
2.0 2.0 2.0
33 3
1.5 1.5 1.5
Millions Millions Millions
Retail Sales Billions) Retail Sales ($ Billions) Retail Sales ($($Billions)
2018
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Recession A M J J A S O N D F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D $0 2020 2020 2021 FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD Source: 2020 Bureau of Labor Statistics 2021 2020 2021
22 2 11 1 00
2021 2021
2022 2022
1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5
0 J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA 2020 2021 2022 JJ2020 FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ2021FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ2022 FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA 2020 2020
2021 2021
2022 2022
Note: As of October 2019, marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to pay sales tax, increasing taxable retail sales. Source: Utah State Tax Commission
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
00 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S 0 2020 2020 2021 2022 JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS 2020 2020
2021 2021
2022 2022
Source: Salt Lake City International Airport
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION