2.2%
Total
1.5%
Construction
0.1%
Manufacturing
7.4%
Information Financial Activities -1.0%
9.4%
Other Services Government
3.2%
Education/Health Services
3.8% 7.0%
Leisure/Hospitality Services 0.0%
Natural Resources
DASHBOARD
0.8%November 2023
Professional/Business Services -0.3%
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
2.2%
The Road to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s economic outlook. 1.9% The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators.
1
THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS: 2012 2014 2016 US
All but two Utah industries experienced employment growth in October.
2
2018 2020 Utah
“Financial activities” and “Trade, Transportation, and Utilities” experienced negative year-over job growth, while Utah employment grew 2.1% overall.
2022
Utah’s median home sales price falls for second consecutive month in October.
The housing market continues to face high interest rates, constraining home buyers’ purchasing power and edging prices slightly downward from $491,000 in August to $485,900 in October.
Unemployment Rate October 2023
U.S. and Utah labor force participation rates fall slightly in October. Despite two months of decreases, Utah’s labor force participation rate remains above pre-pandemic levels. The U.S. rate ticked down slightly in October and has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels.
Year-Over Job Change October 2023 2.3% 2.3%
3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6%
3
2024
2.8% 2.8% 3.2% 3.2%
5.4% 5.4%
2.9% 2.9%
2.7% 2.7%
4.8% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2%
3.3% 3.3%
3.8% 3.8%
1.9% 1.9%
2.8% 2.8%
3.2% 3.2%
2.0% 2.0%
3.2% 3.2%
3.2% 2.2% 3.2% 2.2%
4.1% 4.1%
4.2% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4%
3.6%3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% 4.2% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 4.1% 4.1% 3.3% 3.3% 2.8% 2.8%
4.3% 4.3%
1.7% 1.7%
USA 3.9% 3.9% USA VT 2.0% 2.0% VT NH 2.1% 2.1% NH 2.8% MA 2.8% MA CT 3.5% 3.5% CT RI 2.7% 2.7% RI NJ 4.6% 4.6% NJ MD 1.7% 1.7% MD DC 5.0% 5.0% DC DE 4.2% 4.2% DE
1.6% 1.6% 3.5% 3.5%
3.5% 3.5%
2.2% 2.2%
1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
1.7% 1.7%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
1.1% 1.1% 1.9% 1.9%
2.4% 2.4%
1.5% 1.5%
1.4% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0%
1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 2.2% 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 2.0% 1.4% 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 2.6% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.2% 2.2%
2.0% 2.0%
2.9% 2.9%
2.9% 2.9%
Unemployment Rate
2.8% 2.8%
1.9% 1.9%
USA 1.9% 1.9% USA VT 0.9% 0.9% VT NH 2.0% 2.0% NH MA 2.1% 2.1% MA CT 1.8% 1.8% CT RI -0.5% -0.5% RI NJ 1.9% 1.9% NJ MD 1.7% 1.7% MD DC 1.6% 1.6% DC DE 2.1% 2.1% DE
1.0% 1.0% 5.4% 5.4%
Job Growth
-0.5% -0.5%
3.45% 3.45%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
Le
Year-Over Job Change November 2010 – October 2023
Utah Year-Over Job Change by Industry October 2023 2.2%
Total
1.5%
Construction
0.1%
Manufacturing
7.4%
Information Financial Activities -1.0%
9.4%
Other Services Government
3.2%
Education/Health Services
3.8% 7.0%
Leisure/Hospitality Services 0.0%
Natural Resources -0.3%
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
2014
2016 US
2018 2020 Utah
2022
2024
Utah Unemployment Rate October 2023
Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 –June 2023
2.6% Juab 3.1% Sanpete
3.6% Emery
2.9% Sevier $1,500
3.3% Residential Beaver
6.4% Garfield
$1,000 2.8% $ Millions
2.3% Iron
1.6%
1.7%
3.1% 3.5% Washington
2.8%
1.9%
3.0% 2.4%
4.2% San Juan
Kane
0.8%
1.2%
2.2% 2.0% USA 1.9% 1.0% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% Unemployment Rate 1.2% VT 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 2.6% NH 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 6.4% 1.1% 1.6% 1.3% MA 2.1% 1.9% 2.2% 0.9% $0 CT 1.8% 1.2% M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services 1.9% 0.0% 2020 2021 2022 ‘23 RI -0.5% 2.9% NJ 1.9% 2.2% MD 1.7% 2.0% 2.9% DC 1.6% DE 2.1%
$500 3.5%
1.3%
2.2%
0.2%
68.3%
68%
-0.5%
2.9%
$300 64% 63.4% Unemployment Rate
1.7%
63%
5.4%
$200
62.7%
62%
60%
60.2%
U.S.
Utah
J F MA MJ J A S ON D J F MA MJ J A S ON D J F MA MJ J A S ON DJ F M AM J J A S O 2021 2022 2023 $02020 F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S O 2020 2021 2022 2023
$30
$20
1$
1.6
900
800 600
400 Job G 200 0
Source: UtahRealEstate.com
5
1.0%
S70% A LT L A K E C H A M B E R Job 69%Growth
65%
61% $100
$40
$10
2.8% 2.8% 1.9% 3.2% $0 3.6% M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 3.2% 2022 4.2% ‘23 2020 3.2% 2021 2.0% 4.1% 2.9% 3.4% 2.2% 3.2% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 3.6%3.6% 5.4% USA 3.9% 2.7% 4.6% 4.0% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% VT 2.0% 3.1% 4.2% 4.8% Utah Median Home Sales Price NH 2.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 4.2% MA 2.8% 2.9% January 2020 – October 2023 3.8% 70% 2.3% CT 3.5% 3.4% 69.6% 3.3% RI 2.7% $600 69% 4.1% 68.3% NJ 4.6% 3.3% $485,900 68% MD 1.7% $500 4.3% 2.8% DC 5.0% 67.4% 67% DE 4.2% 66% $400
1.5%
1.0%
$500 3.8%
3.8% Grand
1.4%
Sales Price ($ Thousands)
$ Millions
3.5% Uintah
4.3% Other Wayne
5.0% Non-residential Piute
Other
$1,000
3.9% Carbon
2.5% Millard
Non-residential
$50
Sales Price ($ Thousands)
3.1% Tooele
Residential
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION
900 69.6% 3.45%
4
ons)
2.7% Summit 2.9% Salt Lake 2.7% Wasatch 3.1% 2.9% Duchesne Utah
$60
$1,500
2.5% Cache 2.6% Rich 3.0% Weber 2.6% Davis 2.3% Morgan 4.1% Dagget
2024
5.4%
2012
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.8% Box Elder
T 2.0% H 2.1% A 2.8% T 3.5% I 2.7% J 4.6% D 1.7% C 5.0% E 4.2%
1.9%
Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1.9%
A 3.9%
Tra
2.2%
0.8%
Professional/Business Services
2.2%
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%
Profe
800
2.5
2.0
Oct-2
Jun-2
Aug-2
Apr-2
Feb-2
Oct-2
Dec-2
Aug-2
Jun-2
Apr-2
Feb-2
Dec-2
Oct-2
Jun-2
Aug-2
Apr-2
Feb-2
Dec-2
U.S. Inflation Consumer Price Index Year-Over Change January 2000 - October 2023
Consumer Sentiment October 2020 – November 2023 100
60 $1,000 $1,000 40 $1,000 $1,000
Residential Residential
Non-residential Non-residential
Other Other
Residential Residential
Non-residential Non-residential
Other Other
$600 8.0% $600
73.6 61.3
Oct-23
Jun-23
Apr-23
Feb-23
Oct-22
Dec-22
Aug-22
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
Utah Aug-23
Millions $$Millions $$ Millions Millions
U.S.
$0 $0 M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D ‘23J F M A M J 2021 2022 ‘23 MM AAC.MMGardner J J J J AA SS Policy OO NN DD Institute J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J Source: Kem 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 ‘23‘23
$02020 $0 2020
Labor Force Participation Rate January 2020 – October 2023
-2.0%
3.2%
$300 $300 0.0% $200 $200
$200 -2.0% $200 $100 $100
2003
2008
2013
69.6% 69.6% 69.6% 69.6%
3.2%
Recession $100 $100 $0 $0 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J FMAM J J A S O 2020 F M A M JofJ Labor A S O NStatistics D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S O Source: Bureau 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023
2021 2022 2023 $0 2020 $0 F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S O
900 900 900 900 800 800 800 800 600 600
2003
2008
2013
62.7%
62.7% 2023
2018
400 400 200 200 200 200 0 0 J F MAMJ J A S OND J FMAM J J A S O ND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAMJ J A SON J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J FMAMJ J A SON 2020 2021 2022 2023 00 2020 J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN
J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO Note: The to 2020y-axis starts at 60%2021 2021better illustrate changes 2022 in the labor force 2023participation rate 2020 2022 2023 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: United States Bankruptcy Court
Utah Taxable Retail Sales 5 January 2020 - September 2023 5
SLC International Airport Passengers January 2020 - October 2023 2.5 2.5
2020 2020
55 4 4
2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0
44 3 3
2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5
2021 2021
2022 2022
2023 2023
Millions Millions Millions Millions
Retail Sales Billions) Retail ($($Billions) Retail Sales ($ Retail SalesSales ($ Billions) Billions)
2023
600 600 400 400
62.7% 62.7% 61% Recession 62% 62% 61% U.S. Utah 60.2% U.S. Utah 60% 61% J F M A M60.2% 61% J J A S ON D J F MA MJ J A S ON D J F MA MJ J A S ON DJ F M AM J J A S O 60% J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A U.S. MU.S.J J A SUtah O N D 2023 J F M AM J J A S O Utah 2020 60.2% 60.2% 2021 2022 2023 60% 2020 60%
33 2 2
1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0
22 1 1 11 0 0
2018
Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2020 - November 2023
8.0% 70% 70% 69% 70% 70% 69% 6.0%68.3% 68.3% 68% 69% 69% 68% 68.3% 68.3% 4.0% 67.4% 67% 68% 68% 67.4% 67% 66% 67.4% 67.4% 67% 67% 66% 2.0% 65% 66% 66% 65% 64% 0.0%63.4% 65% 65% 64% 63.4% 63% 64% 63.4% 64% 63% 63.4% 62% 63% 63% 62%
$485,900 $485,900
$500 $500 4.0% $400 $400 $400 $400 2.0% $300 $300
20 $500 $500 $500 0$500
$485,900 $485,900
$600 $600 $500 6.0% $500
Sales Price Thousands) Sales ($($Thousands) Sales Price ($ Sales PricePrice ($ Thousands) Thousands)
$1,500 $1,500 80 $1,500 $1,500
1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5
J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F M A MJ J A S
J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F M A MJ J A S 00 2020
0.5 0.5 0 0 J FMAMJ J A S OND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND JF MAM J J A S O
J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F M A M J J A S O 2020 2021 2022 2023
2020
2021
2022
2023
00 2020
2020 2020
2021 2021
2022 2022
2023 2023
2020 2020
J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S
Note: As of October 2019, marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to pay sales tax, increasing taxable retail sales. Source: Utah State Tax Commission
S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R
J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO 2021 2021
2022 2022
2023 2023
Source: Salt Lake City International Airport
ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION