Roadmap to Prosperity: November 2023 Economic Dashboard

Page 1

2.2%

Total

1.5%

Construction

0.1%

Manufacturing

7.4%

Information Financial Activities -1.0%

9.4%

Other Services Government

3.2%

Education/Health Services

3.8% 7.0%

Leisure/Hospitality Services 0.0%

Natural Resources

DASHBOARD

0.8%November 2023

Professional/Business Services -0.3%

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%

2.2%

The Road to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s economic outlook. 1.9% The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and leading measures, and shares salient indicators.

1

THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS: 2012 2014 2016 US

All but two Utah industries experienced employment growth in October.

2

2018 2020 Utah

“Financial activities” and “Trade, Transportation, and Utilities” experienced negative year-over job growth, while Utah employment grew 2.1% overall.

2022

Utah’s median home sales price falls for second consecutive month in October.

The housing market continues to face high interest rates, constraining home buyers’ purchasing power and edging prices slightly downward from $491,000 in August to $485,900 in October.

Unemployment Rate October 2023

U.S. and Utah labor force participation rates fall slightly in October. Despite two months of decreases, Utah’s labor force participation rate remains above pre-pandemic levels. The U.S. rate ticked down slightly in October and has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels.

Year-Over Job Change October 2023 2.3% 2.3%

3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6%

3

2024

2.8% 2.8% 3.2% 3.2%

5.4% 5.4%

2.9% 2.9%

2.7% 2.7%

4.8% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2%

3.3% 3.3%

3.8% 3.8%

1.9% 1.9%

2.8% 2.8%

3.2% 3.2%

2.0% 2.0%

3.2% 3.2%

3.2% 2.2% 3.2% 2.2%

4.1% 4.1%

4.2% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4%

3.6%3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% 4.2% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 4.1% 4.1% 3.3% 3.3% 2.8% 2.8%

4.3% 4.3%

1.7% 1.7%

USA 3.9% 3.9% USA VT 2.0% 2.0% VT NH 2.1% 2.1% NH 2.8% MA 2.8% MA CT 3.5% 3.5% CT RI 2.7% 2.7% RI NJ 4.6% 4.6% NJ MD 1.7% 1.7% MD DC 5.0% 5.0% DC DE 4.2% 4.2% DE

1.6% 1.6% 3.5% 3.5%

3.5% 3.5%

2.2% 2.2%

1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

1.7% 1.7%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

1.1% 1.1% 1.9% 1.9%

2.4% 2.4%

1.5% 1.5%

1.4% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0%

1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 2.2% 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 2.0% 1.4% 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 2.6% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.2% 2.2%

2.0% 2.0%

2.9% 2.9%

2.9% 2.9%

Unemployment Rate

2.8% 2.8%

1.9% 1.9%

USA 1.9% 1.9% USA VT 0.9% 0.9% VT NH 2.0% 2.0% NH MA 2.1% 2.1% MA CT 1.8% 1.8% CT RI -0.5% -0.5% RI NJ 1.9% 1.9% NJ MD 1.7% 1.7% MD DC 1.6% 1.6% DC DE 2.1% 2.1% DE

1.0% 1.0% 5.4% 5.4%

Job Growth

-0.5% -0.5%

3.45% 3.45%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION


Le

Year-Over Job Change November 2010 – October 2023

Utah Year-Over Job Change by Industry October 2023 2.2%

Total

1.5%

Construction

0.1%

Manufacturing

7.4%

Information Financial Activities -1.0%

9.4%

Other Services Government

3.2%

Education/Health Services

3.8% 7.0%

Leisure/Hospitality Services 0.0%

Natural Resources -0.3%

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

2014

2016 US

2018 2020 Utah

2022

2024

Utah Unemployment Rate October 2023

Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 –June 2023

2.6% Juab 3.1% Sanpete

3.6% Emery

2.9% Sevier $1,500

3.3% Residential Beaver

6.4% Garfield

$1,000 2.8% $ Millions

2.3% Iron

1.6%

1.7%

3.1% 3.5% Washington

2.8%

1.9%

3.0% 2.4%

4.2% San Juan

Kane

0.8%

1.2%

2.2% 2.0% USA 1.9% 1.0% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% Unemployment Rate 1.2% VT 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 2.6% NH 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 6.4% 1.1% 1.6% 1.3% MA 2.1% 1.9% 2.2% 0.9% $0 CT 1.8% 1.2% M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services 1.9% 0.0% 2020 2021 2022 ‘23 RI -0.5% 2.9% NJ 1.9% 2.2% MD 1.7% 2.0% 2.9% DC 1.6% DE 2.1%

$500 3.5%

1.3%

2.2%

0.2%

68.3%

68%

-0.5%

2.9%

$300 64% 63.4% Unemployment Rate

1.7%

63%

5.4%

$200

62.7%

62%

60%

60.2%

U.S.

Utah

J F MA MJ J A S ON D J F MA MJ J A S ON D J F MA MJ J A S ON DJ F M AM J J A S O 2021 2022 2023 $02020 F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S O 2020 2021 2022 2023

$30

$20

1$

1.6

900

800 600

400 Job G 200 0

Source: UtahRealEstate.com

5

1.0%

S70% A LT L A K E C H A M B E R Job 69%Growth

65%

61% $100

$40

$10

2.8% 2.8% 1.9% 3.2% $0 3.6% M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 3.2% 2022 4.2% ‘23 2020 3.2% 2021 2.0% 4.1% 2.9% 3.4% 2.2% 3.2% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 3.6%3.6% 5.4% USA 3.9% 2.7% 4.6% 4.0% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% VT 2.0% 3.1% 4.2% 4.8% Utah Median Home Sales Price NH 2.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 4.2% MA 2.8% 2.9% January 2020 – October 2023 3.8% 70% 2.3% CT 3.5% 3.4% 69.6% 3.3% RI 2.7% $600 69% 4.1% 68.3% NJ 4.6% 3.3% $485,900 68% MD 1.7% $500 4.3% 2.8% DC 5.0% 67.4% 67% DE 4.2% 66% $400

1.5%

1.0%

$500 3.8%

3.8% Grand

1.4%

Sales Price ($ Thousands)

$ Millions

3.5% Uintah

4.3% Other Wayne

5.0% Non-residential Piute

Other

$1,000

3.9% Carbon

2.5% Millard

Non-residential

$50

Sales Price ($ Thousands)

3.1% Tooele

Residential

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION

900 69.6% 3.45%

4

ons)

2.7% Summit 2.9% Salt Lake 2.7% Wasatch 3.1% 2.9% Duchesne Utah

$60

$1,500

2.5% Cache 2.6% Rich 3.0% Weber 2.6% Davis 2.3% Morgan 4.1% Dagget

2024

5.4%

2012

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2.8% Box Elder

T 2.0% H 2.1% A 2.8% T 3.5% I 2.7% J 4.6% D 1.7% C 5.0% E 4.2%

1.9%

Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

1.9%

A 3.9%

Tra

2.2%

0.8%

Professional/Business Services

2.2%

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0%

Profe

800

2.5

2.0


Oct-2

Jun-2

Aug-2

Apr-2

Feb-2

Oct-2

Dec-2

Aug-2

Jun-2

Apr-2

Feb-2

Dec-2

Oct-2

Jun-2

Aug-2

Apr-2

Feb-2

Dec-2

U.S. Inflation Consumer Price Index Year-Over Change January 2000 - October 2023

Consumer Sentiment October 2020 – November 2023 100

60 $1,000 $1,000 40 $1,000 $1,000

Residential Residential

Non-residential Non-residential

Other Other

Residential Residential

Non-residential Non-residential

Other Other

$600 8.0% $600

73.6 61.3

Oct-23

Jun-23

Apr-23

Feb-23

Oct-22

Dec-22

Aug-22

Jun-22

Apr-22

Feb-22

Oct-21

Dec-21

Jun-21

Aug-21

Apr-21

Feb-21

Dec-20

Utah Aug-23

Millions $$Millions $$ Millions Millions

U.S.

$0 $0 M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D ‘23J F M A M J 2021 2022 ‘23 MM AAC.MMGardner J J J J AA SS Policy OO NN DD Institute J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J Source: Kem 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 ‘23‘23

$02020 $0 2020

Labor Force Participation Rate January 2020 – October 2023

-2.0%

3.2%

$300 $300 0.0% $200 $200

$200 -2.0% $200 $100 $100

2003

2008

2013

69.6% 69.6% 69.6% 69.6%

3.2%

Recession $100 $100 $0 $0 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O

F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J FMAM J J A S O 2020 F M A M JofJ Labor A S O NStatistics D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S O Source: Bureau 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023

2021 2022 2023 $0 2020 $0 F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S O

900 900 900 900 800 800 800 800 600 600

2003

2008

2013

62.7%

62.7% 2023

2018

400 400 200 200 200 200 0 0 J F MAMJ J A S OND J FMAM J J A S O ND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAMJ J A SON J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J FMAMJ J A SON 2020 2021 2022 2023 00 2020 J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN

J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO NN DD J J FF MM AA MM J J J J AA SS OO Note: The to 2020y-axis starts at 60%2021 2021better illustrate changes 2022 in the labor force 2023participation rate 2020 2022 2023 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: United States Bankruptcy Court

Utah Taxable Retail Sales 5 January 2020 - September 2023 5

SLC International Airport Passengers January 2020 - October 2023 2.5 2.5

2020 2020

55 4 4

2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0

44 3 3

2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5

2021 2021

2022 2022

2023 2023

Millions Millions Millions Millions

Retail Sales Billions) Retail ($($Billions) Retail Sales ($ Retail SalesSales ($ Billions) Billions)

2023

600 600 400 400

62.7% 62.7% 61% Recession 62% 62% 61% U.S. Utah 60.2% U.S. Utah 60% 61% J F M A M60.2% 61% J J A S ON D J F MA MJ J A S ON D J F MA MJ J A S ON DJ F M AM J J A S O 60% J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A U.S. MU.S.J J A SUtah O N D 2023 J F M AM J J A S O Utah 2020 60.2% 60.2% 2021 2022 2023 60% 2020 60%

33 2 2

1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0

22 1 1 11 0 0

2018

Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2020 - November 2023

8.0% 70% 70% 69% 70% 70% 69% 6.0%68.3% 68.3% 68% 69% 69% 68% 68.3% 68.3% 4.0% 67.4% 67% 68% 68% 67.4% 67% 66% 67.4% 67.4% 67% 67% 66% 2.0% 65% 66% 66% 65% 64% 0.0%63.4% 65% 65% 64% 63.4% 63% 64% 63.4% 64% 63% 63.4% 62% 63% 63% 62%

$485,900 $485,900

$500 $500 4.0% $400 $400 $400 $400 2.0% $300 $300

20 $500 $500 $500 0$500

$485,900 $485,900

$600 $600 $500 6.0% $500

Sales Price Thousands) Sales ($($Thousands) Sales Price ($ Sales PricePrice ($ Thousands) Thousands)

$1,500 $1,500 80 $1,500 $1,500

1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5

J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F M A MJ J A S

J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F M A MJ J A S 00 2020

0.5 0.5 0 0 J FMAMJ J A S OND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND JF MAM J J A S O

J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2023 J F M A M J J A S O 2020 2021 2022 2023

2020

2021

2022

2023

00 2020

2020 2020

2021 2021

2022 2022

2023 2023

2020 2020

J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S

Note: As of October 2019, marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to pay sales tax, increasing taxable retail sales. Source: Utah State Tax Commission

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO 2021 2021

2022 2022

2023 2023

Source: Salt Lake City International Airport

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION


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