Roadmap to Prosperity - October 2022 Dashboard

Page 1

Construction

10.1% 1.8%

Manufacturing Information

10.3%

Financial Activities -3.0% Leisure & Hospitality

6.5% 0.0%

Other Services Government

1.7%

Education/Health Services

5.3%

Natural Resources

9.9%

Professional/Business Services

-0.3%

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

4.4% October 2022

DASHBOARD 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14%

3.7% 3.5%

The Road to Prosperity Dashboard tracks Utah’s economic outlook. The Dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides essential insights, tracks timely and USleading measures, and shares salient indicators. Utah 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

THREE ESSENTIAL INSIGHTS:

1

Utah’s low unemployment rate continues. Utah’s September unemployment rate of 2.1% continues a 19-month trend of an unemployment rate below 3.0%.

2

Home prices decline. While Utah home prices have risen year-over, Utah’s median home sales price has fallen from $535,050 in May to $490,000 in September 2022.

Unemployment Rate September 2022

While consumer confidence has fluctuated mildly, it has remained low for the past several months both in Utah and nationwide.

Year-Over Job Change September 2022 3.7%

3.7% 3.8%

3

Consumer confidence remains low.

2.9% 2.8% 3.3%

2.2%

2.0%

2.3% 2.2%

4.4%

2.1%

3.9% 3.7%

3.4%

2.6% 3.2%

4.2%

3.3%

4.0% 4.4%

3.2%

4.1%

2.2% 4.5%

4.1% 4.0% 4.5%2.8% 4.0% 2.6% 3.8% 2.4% 3.6% 3.4%

2.7%

3.2% 2.6% 2.8% 3.6% 3.4%

3.5%

2.5%

3.2%

4.3% USA 3.5% VT NH MA CT RI NJ MD DC DE

2.1% 2.2% 3.4% 4.0% 3.1% 3.3% 4.0% 4.7% 4.3%

4.3% 4.3%

3.5%

3.6%

2.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

2.6%

4.0% 3.8%

2.9%

3.3% 2.4%

3.2%

4.1%

3.6% 2.0% 4.0% 3.1% 3.0% 2.1% 2.5% 3.4% 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% 2.6% 4.4% 2.7% 2.6% 4.9% 0.7% 5.6% 5.4% 2.6%

2.5%

5.4%

1.9%

3.5%

Unemployment Rate

2.7%

3.1%

USA 3.7% VT NH MA CT RI NJ MD DC DE

2.4% 2.6% 4.1% 2.8% 3.0% 4.5% 3.1% 2.1% 2.4%

3.7 % 4.7%

Job Growth

0.7%

5.6%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION


Year-Over Job Change November 2010 – September 2022

Utah Year-Over Job Change by Industry September 2022 Total

3.5%

Construction

10.1% 1.8%

Manufacturing Information

10.3%

Financial Activities -3.0% Leisure & Hospitality

6.5% 0.0%

Other Services Government

1.7%

Education/Health Services

5.3%

Natural Resources

9.9%

Professional/Business Services

Value of Construction in Utah March 2020 – August 2022 Residential

2.8% Duchesne

1.8% Juab 2.5% Sanpete 2.6% Sevier

$1,500

2.5% Residential Beaver 2.1% Iron

3.7% $1,000

$ Millions

2.8% Emery

4.5%

2.2%

3.2%

2.2% 4.3% Washington $500

2.7%

2.6%

2.3% Kane 2.6%

2.4%

3.1% Grand

3.2%

3.6% 2.0% 4.0% USA 3.7% 3.1% 3.0% 4.0% 4.3% 2.1% 2.5% 3.4% VT 2.4% 4.2% 4.5% Unemployment Rate 4.5% NH 2.6% 2.6% 3.6% 3.8% 4.4% 2.7% MA 4.1% 1.7% 5.7% 2.6% CT 2.8% 4.9% $0 0.7% M A M J J A S O N 5.6% D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A MRI J 3.0% J A Source: Utah2020 Department of Workforce2021 Services5.4% 2022 NJ 4.5% MD 3.1% 5.4% 1.9% DC 2.1% DE 2.4% 2.5%

64% 63.4% $300 63%

3.3% A M J J A

USA 3.5% VT 2.1% NH 2.2% MA 3.4% CT 68.0% 4.0% RI 3.1% $490,000 NJ 3.3% MD 4.0% DC 4.7% DE 4.3%

3.5%

Unemployment Rate 61% $100 60% $0

4

4.3%

900

800 600

Job Gr 200

U.S.

60.2%

Utah

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 2020

2021

0

2022

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S

2020

2021

2022

Source: UtahRealEstate.com

5

900

ions)

5.6% 68.0%

$2

400

62.3% 4.7%

2.0%

62% $200

3.7 %

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R 0.7%

2.5%

65% $400

4.1%

$3

$1

67.4% 67% $500 4.4% 66%

3.9%2.9% San Juan

$4

3.7% 2.9% 2.2% 2.0% $0 3.8% M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M 3.2% 2020 2021 2022 2.8% 2.3% 4.3% 4.1% 3.3% 4.1% Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database 2.2% 2.7% 4.4% 4.0% 2.1% 4.5%2.8% 4.0% 3.4% 2.6% 2.6% 3.9% 3.8% Utah Median Home Sales Price2.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.7%– September 3.2% January 2020 20223.5% 3.2% 4.2% 69% 2.6% 68.3% 2.8% 3.6% $600 68% 4.0% 3.4%

3.5%

69% Job Growth 68.3% 68%

Sales Price ($ thousands)

$ Millions

$500

3.3% Uintah

Non-residential 4.3%Other 3.8% Piute Wayne

5.7% 3.3% 3.1%Garfield

Other

$1,000

3.1% Carbon

2.1% Millard

Non-residential

$5

1.9% 2.1% Summit Salt Lake 2.1% Wasatch

$6

$1,500

1.7% Cache 2.4% Rich 2.2% Weber 1.9% Davis 1.8% Morgan 4.1% Dagget

1.9% Utah

4.7%

Utah

Utah Unemployment Rate September 2022

2.3% Tooele

2.1% 2.2% 3.4% 4.0% 3.1% 3.3% 4.0% 4.7% 4.3%

US

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

3.5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Note: Large year-over job change in April 2021 is inflated due to the high job losses in April 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4.4%

2.0% Box Elder

%

3.5%

Sales Price ($ thousands)

3.5%

Tra

3.7%

-0.3%

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

3.7%

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14%

Profe

800

2.5

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION 4

2.0


Consumer Confidence October 2020 – September 2022 100 Residential Residential Residential

Non-residential Non-residential Non-residential

$600 $600 $600 $500 $500

Other Other Other

Millions $ Millions $$Millions

$300 $200 $200 $200 $100 $100

$500 $500 $500

O N D J F M A M J J A $0 2021 $02020 MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA $0 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022

S

$100 N O $0 $0

Labor Force Participation Rate January 2020 – September 2022

D

J F 2022

M

A

M

J

2020 2020

2021 2021

A

S

J F M A M J J A S J F M A M J J A S 2022 JJ2022FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS 2022 2022

Utah Bankruptcy Cases January 2020 - September 2022

69% 69% 68.3% 68.3% 69% 68% 68% 68.3% 68% 67.4% 67% 67.4% 67% 67.4% 67% 66% 66% 66% 65% 65%

68.0% 68.0% 68.0%

900 900 900 800 800 800 600 600 600

62.3% 62.3% 62.3% U.S. U.S.

60.2% 60.2%

Utah Utah

400 400 400 200 200 200 00 J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S 2021 2022 0 2020 2020 2021 2022 J F MA M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M U.S. J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S J F M A 60.2% M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S Utah O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A S 60% 2020 2020 2021 JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ2022 FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 participation rate Note: The2020 y-axis starts at 60% to better illustrate changes in the labor force Source: United States Bankruptcy Court

Source: United States Bankruptcy Court

Utah Taxable Retail Sales 55 January 2020 - August 2022

SLC International Airport Passengers January 2020 - August 2022 2.5 2.5

2020 2020

5

2.5

44 4

2.0 2.0 2.0

33 3

1.5 1.5 1.5

Millions Millions Millions

Retail Sales Billions) Retail Sales ($ Billions) Retail Sales ($($Billions)

J

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D $0 2020 FF2020 MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ2021FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD

M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022

65% 63.4% 64% 64% 63.4% 64% 63.4% 63% 63% 63% 62% 62% 62% 61% 61% 60% 61% 60%

Utah $490,000 $490,000 $490,000

$500 $400 $400 $400 $300 $300

$1,000 $1,000 50 $1,000

0

U.S.

Sales Price thousands) Sales Price ($ thousands) Sales Price ($($thousands)

$1,500 $1,500 $1,500

22 2 11 1 00

2021 2021

2022 2022

1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5

0 J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA S S OO NN DD J J F F MM AA MM J J J J AA 2020 2021 2022 JJ2020 FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ2021FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ2022 FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA 2020 2020

2021 2021

2022 2022

Note: As of October 2019, marketplace facilitators with a Utah nexus were required to pay sales tax, increasing taxable retail sales. Source: Utah State Tax Commission

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R

00 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A J F M A M J J A S O N D 2021 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2022 J F M A M J J A 0 2020 2020 2021 2022 JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA 2020 2020

2021 2021

2022 2022

Source: Salt Lake City International Airport

ROADMAP TO RECOVERY COALITION


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