Q UA R TE R LY S U RVEY OF U T AH RES IDEN T S 2019 - QU ART ER 3
The Salt Lake Chamber recognizes the link between public leadership and business well-being. On behalf of the Salt Lake Chamber, Dan Jones & Associates surveys likely voters and asks questions about the direction of our country and state, presidential and gubernatorial leadership, voter preferences for major races, and other timely issues important to the future of the state. The survey, which will be known as Utah Outlook, is conducted quarterly and includes likely voters. A companion survey, the Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook, queries top-level business executives from a representative mix of industries about current and future economic conditions. Together, the Utah Outlook and CEOutlook help Utah business and community leaders make informed business decisions.
METHODOLOGY Dan Jones & Associates conducted this initial survey October 3–10, 2019. It includes a statistically valid, statewide sample of 600 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. In addition, surveyors oversampled in Salt Lake City to secure statistically valid results for the Salt Lake City mayoral race. The blended sample is composed of telephone respondents (75%) and online respondents (25%). Quotas were managed by age and county and weighted by political affiliation.
RIGHT DIRECTION / WRONG DIRECTION Do you think the United States is going in the right or wrong direction?
Total (number responding)
599
Right direction
43%
Wrong direction
47%
Don’t know
10%
Right direction
43%
Wrong direction 2019-Q3
47%
N=599
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
RIGHT DIRECTION / WRONG DIRECTION Do you think Utah as a state is going in the right or wrong direction?
Total (number responding)
599
Right direction
64%
Wrong direction
23%
Don’t know
12%
Right direction Wrong direction 2019-Q3
64% 23%
N=599
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
2019 - Quarter 3
3
FAVORABILITY I’ll read you a list of names‌For each one, first tell me if you have heard of the person and, if so, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person: Very Favorable or Somewhat Favorable President Donald Trump
53%
Senator Mike Lee
54%
Senator Mitt Romney
55%
Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
68%
Governor Gary Herbert
68%
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
48%
Congressman Rob Bishop
39%
Congressman Chris Stewart
37%
Congressman John Curtis
33%
Congressman Ben McAdams Former Speaker Greg Hughes
44% 19%
Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson
36%
Salt Lake County Councilwoman Aimee Winder-Newton Former Republican Chair Thomas Wright Businessman Spencer Eccles, Jr.
15%
11% 23%
Source: Dan Jones & Associates 4
Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents
RE-ELECT I’ll read you a list of names…For each one, tell me if they have performed well enough that they should be re-elected to another term, or is it time to give someone new a chance to serve? Should be re-elected to another term
Time to give someone new a chance to serve
Don’t know
President Donald Trump
50%
46%
4%
Senator Mike Lee
47%
41%
13%
President Trump Re-Elect Should be re-elected to another term
50%
Time to give someone new a chance to serve 2019-Q3
46%
N=599
President Trump Re-Elect by Age 61%
57%
46%
43%
51%
36%
18 to 24
61%
56%
54% 43%
39%
35%
25 to 34
35 to 44
Should be re-elected to another term
President Trump Re-Elect by Political Affiliation
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 or older
Time to give someone new a chance to serve
96%
75% 58% 48%
48%
36% 22% 3% Republican
Democrat Should be re-elected to another term
Unaffiliated Voter
Other
Time to give someone new a chance to serve
Source: Dan Jones & Associates 2019 - Quarter 3
5
2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE If the 2020 election for governor of Utah were held today and the candidates were the following, for whom would you likely vote? Gubernatorial Likely Vote 33%
30%
34% 26%
21% 22% 2%
Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
2%
Former Speaker Greg Hughes
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
4%
7%
5%
Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright
3%
2%
Businessman Spencer Eccles, Jr.
2%
Entrepreneur Jeff Burningham
Don’t Know
Republicans (271)
All Voters (599)
Of the following Republican candidates for governor, for whom are you least likely to vote in the primary? Gubernatorial Least Likely Vote 40% 40%
18% 15%
Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
8%
14% 6%
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
6
8%
Former Speaker Greg Hughes
8%
8%
6%
Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright
All Voters (599)
9%
6%
Businessman Spencer Eccles, Jr.
13%
Entrepreneur Jeff Burningham
Don’t Know
Republicans (271)
Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents
2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE CONT. Assume the field of candidates for governor is narrowed to two. For whom would you likely vote for if the candidates were the following? Gubernatorial Head-to-Head by Age 61%
60%
56% 44%
39%
18 to 24
60% 49% 51%
50% 50% 40%
25 to 34
40%
35 to 44
45 to 54
Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
55 to 64
65 or older
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
Gubernatorial Head-to-Head by Political Affiliation 73% 54%
61%
55% 46%
45%
56% 39%
44%
27%
All Voters
Republican Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
Democrat
Unaffiliated Voter
Other
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
Gubernatorial Head-to-Head Amongst All Voters
54%
Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.
Lt. Governor Spencer Cox
46%
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
2019 - Quarter 3
7
MAYORAL RACE If the 2019 Salt Lake City mayoral election were held today and the candidates were the following, for whom would you likely vote? SLC Mayor Likely Vote
Total
(number responding) Margin of error +/- 5.23%
350
Senator Luz Escamilla
37%
Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall
42%
Don’t Know
21%
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
37%
Senator Luz Escamilla
42%
Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall
21%
Don’t Know
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
ISSUES For each of the following issues currently facing the state of Utah, please rate it using a 1-5 scale, with ONE meaning it is AT THE BOTTOM of your priority list and FIVE meaning it is AT THE TOP of your priority list: Priority of Issues Facing Utah Promoting economic development and job creation
3.89
Increasing funding for education
3.86
Addressing homelessness in Utah
Increasing funding for roads, highways and freeways
3.43 3.38
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
8
Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents
TAX MODIFICATION There are various proposals to modify the tax system to increase funding for education. Do you support or oppose a tax modification? Tax Modification Support 55% Support
33% Oppose
12% Don’t Know
*Oppose includes somewhat and strongly oppose; support includes somewhat and strongly support. Source: Dan Jones & Associates
Tax Modification Support by Age 64%
63%
56%
54%
50%
47% 41%
32%
37%
32%
30% 23% 15%
14%
17%
11%
9%
5% 18 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44 Support
45 to 54 Oppose
55 to 64
65 or older
Don’t Know
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
CLIMATE CHANGE On the subject of climate change, which of the following best describes your opinion?
Total (number responding)
599
We must investigate further before acting
28%
No action is needed as this is not a serious issue
22%
We must act now on this serious issue
18%
We must act now on this critical issue
30%
Don’t know
2%
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
2019 - Quarter 3
9
IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY The House of Representatives has opened an impeachment inquiry to investigate President Trump’s alleged improper communications with the Ukraine government. Do you generally support or oppose the impeachment inquiry?
Total (number responding)
599
Strongly support
32%
Somewhat support
10%
Somewhat oppose
10%
Strongly oppose
46% 3%
Don’t know Source: Dan Jones & Associates
Impeachment Support by Age 63%
57%
55% 43%
41%
18 to 24
25 to 34
45%
50% 36%
35 to 44 Support
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
66%
63%
34%
45 to 54
33%
55 to 64
65 or older
Oppose
Impeachment Support by Political Affiliation 92% 80% 56%
52% 43%
44%
18% 7% Republican
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
10
Democrat Support
Unaffiliated Voter
Other
Oppose
Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents
IMMIGRATION POLICY Generally speaking, how do you think current immigration policy has affected Utah?
Total (number responding)
599
Very positive
4%
Somewhat positive
21%
Somewhat negative
34%
Very negative
25%
Don’t know
15%
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
Immigration Policy by Age
67% 60%
58%
61%
59%
50% 31% 22%
18 to 24
25 to 34
30%
28%
35 to 44 Positive
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
23%
45 to 54
20%
55 to 64
65 or older
Negative
Immigration Policy by Political Affiliation 75%
70%
65% 49% 34% 21%
16%
Republican
13%
Democrat Positive
Unaffiliated Voter
Other
Negative
Source: Dan Jones & Associates
2019 - Quarter 3
11
SALT==LAKE
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CHAMBER
UTAH'S BUSINESS LEADER