Utah Outlook 2019 - Quarter 3

Q UA R TE R LY S U RVEY OF U T AH RES IDEN T S 2019 - QU ART ER 3

The Salt Lake Chamber recognizes the link between public leadership and business well-being. On behalf of the Salt Lake Chamber, Dan Jones & Associates surveys likely voters and asks questions about the direction of our country and state, presidential and gubernatorial leadership, voter preferences for major races, and other timely issues important to the future of the state.

The survey, which will be known as Utah Outlook, is conducted quarterly and includes likely voters.

A companion survey, the Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook, queries top-level business executives from a representative mix of industries about current and future economic conditions. Together, the Utah Outlook and CEOutlook help Utah business and community leaders make informed business decisions.

METHODOLOGY Dan Jones & Associates conducted this initial survey October 3–10, 2019. It includes a statistically valid, statewide sample of 600 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. In addition, surveyors oversampled in Salt Lake City to secure statistically valid results for the Salt Lake City mayoral race.

The blended sample is composed of telephone respondents (75%) and online respondents (25%). Quotas were managed by age and county and weighted by political affiliation.

RIGHT DIRECTION / WRONG DIRECTION Do you think the United States is going in the right or wrong direction?

Total (number responding)

599

Right direction

43%

Wrong direction

47%

Don’t know

10%

Right direction

43%

Wrong direction 2019-Q3

47%

N=599

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

RIGHT DIRECTION / WRONG DIRECTION Do you think Utah as a state is going in the right or wrong direction?

Total (number responding)

599

Right direction

64%

Wrong direction

23%

Don’t know

12%

Right direction Wrong direction 2019-Q3

64% 23%

N=599

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

2019 - Quarter 3

3

FAVORABILITY I’ll read you a list of names‌For each one, first tell me if you have heard of the person and, if so, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person: Very Favorable or Somewhat Favorable President Donald Trump

53%

Senator Mike Lee

54%

Senator Mitt Romney

55%

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

68%

Governor Gary Herbert

68%

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

48%

Congressman Rob Bishop

39%

Congressman Chris Stewart

37%

Congressman John Curtis

33%

Congressman Ben McAdams Former Speaker Greg Hughes

44% 19%

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson

36%

Salt Lake County Councilwoman Aimee Winder-Newton Former Republican Chair Thomas Wright Businessman Spencer Eccles, Jr.

15%

11% 23%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates 4

Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents

RE-ELECT I’ll read you a list of names…For each one, tell me if they have performed well enough that they should be re-elected to another term, or is it time to give someone new a chance to serve?

Should be re-elected to another term

Time to give someone new a chance to serve

Don’t know

President Donald Trump

50%

46%

4%

Senator Mike Lee

47%

41%

13%

President Trump Re-Elect Should be re-elected to another term

50%

Time to give someone new a chance to serve 2019-Q3

46%

N=599

President Trump Re-Elect by Age 61%

57%

46%

43%

51%

36%

18 to 24

61%

56%

54% 43%

39%

35%

25 to 34

35 to 44

Should be re-elected to another term

President Trump Re-Elect by Political Affiliation

45 to 54

55 to 64

65 or older

Time to give someone new a chance to serve

96%

75% 58% 48%

48%

36% 22% 3% Republican

Democrat Should be re-elected to another term

Unaffiliated Voter

Other

Time to give someone new a chance to serve

Source: Dan Jones & Associates 2019 - Quarter 3

5

2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE If the 2020 election for governor of Utah were held today and the candidates were the following, for whom would you likely vote?

Gubernatorial Likely Vote 33%

30%

34% 26%

21% 22% 2%

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

2%

Former Speaker Greg Hughes

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

4%

7%

5%

Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright

3%

2%

Businessman Spencer Eccles, Jr.

2%

Entrepreneur Jeff Burningham

Don’t Know

Republicans (271)

All Voters (599)

Of the following Republican candidates for governor, for whom are you least likely to vote in the primary?

Gubernatorial Least Likely Vote 40% 40%

18% 15%

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

8%

14% 6%

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

6

8%

Former Speaker Greg Hughes

8%

8%

6%

Former Republican Party Chair Thomas Wright

All Voters (599)

9%

6%

Businessman Spencer Eccles, Jr.

13%

Entrepreneur Jeff Burningham

Don’t Know

Republicans (271)

Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents

2020 GUBERNATORIAL RACE CONT. Assume the field of candidates for governor is narrowed to two.

For whom would you likely vote for if the candidates were the following?

Gubernatorial Head-to-Head by Age 61%

60%

56% 44%

39%

18 to 24

60% 49% 51%

50% 50% 40%

25 to 34

40%

35 to 44

45 to 54

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

55 to 64

65 or older

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

Gubernatorial Head-to-Head by Political Affiliation 73% 54%

61%

55% 46%

45%

56% 39%

44%

27%

All Voters

Republican Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

Democrat

Unaffiliated Voter

Other

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

Gubernatorial Head-to-Head Amongst All Voters

54%

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

46%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

2019 - Quarter 3

7

MAYORAL RACE If the 2019 Salt Lake City mayoral election were held today and the candidates were the following, for whom would you likely vote?

SLC Mayor Likely Vote

Total

(number responding) Margin of error +/- 5.23%

350

Senator Luz Escamilla

37%

Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall

42%

Don’t Know

21%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

37%

Senator Luz Escamilla

42%

Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall

21%

Don’t Know

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

ISSUES For each of the following issues currently facing the state of Utah, please rate it using a 1-5 scale, with ONE meaning it is AT THE BOTTOM of your priority list and FIVE meaning it is AT THE TOP of your priority list: Priority of Issues Facing Utah Promoting economic development and job creation

3.89

Increasing funding for education

3.86

Addressing homelessness in Utah

Increasing funding for roads, highways and freeways

3.43 3.38

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

8

Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents

TAX MODIFICATION There are various proposals to modify the tax system to increase funding for education.

Do you support or oppose a tax modification?

Tax Modification Support 55% Support

33% Oppose

12% Don’t Know

*Oppose includes somewhat and strongly oppose; support includes somewhat and strongly support.

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

Tax Modification Support by Age 64%

63%

56%

54%

50%

47% 41%

32%

37%

32%

30% 23% 15%

14%

17%

11%

9%

5% 18 to 24

25 to 34

35 to 44 Support

45 to 54 Oppose

55 to 64

65 or older

Don’t Know

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

CLIMATE CHANGE On the subject of climate change, which of the following best describes your opinion?

Total (number responding)

599

We must investigate further before acting

28%

No action is needed as this is not a serious issue

22%

We must act now on this serious issue

18%

We must act now on this critical issue

30%

Don’t know

2%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

2019 - Quarter 3

9

IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY The House of Representatives has opened an impeachment inquiry to investigate President Trump’s alleged improper communications with the Ukraine government. Do you generally support or oppose the impeachment inquiry?

Total (number responding)

599

Strongly support

32%

Somewhat support

10%

Somewhat oppose

10%

Strongly oppose

46% 3%

Don’t know Source: Dan Jones & Associates

Impeachment Support by Age 63%

57%

55% 43%

41%

18 to 24

25 to 34

45%

50% 36%

35 to 44 Support

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

66%

63%

34%

45 to 54

33%

55 to 64

65 or older

Oppose

Impeachment Support by Political Affiliation 92% 80% 56%

52% 43%

44%

18% 7% Republican

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

10

Democrat Support

Unaffiliated Voter

Other

Oppose

Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents

IMMIGRATION POLICY Generally speaking, how do you think current immigration policy has affected Utah?

Total (number responding)

599

Very positive

4%

Somewhat positive

21%

Somewhat negative

34%

Very negative

25%

Don’t know

15%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

Immigration Policy by Age

67% 60%

58%

61%

59%

50% 31% 22%

18 to 24

25 to 34

30%

28%

35 to 44 Positive

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

23%

45 to 54

20%

55 to 64

65 or older

Negative

Immigration Policy by Political Affiliation 75%

70%

65% 49% 34% 21%

16%

Republican

13%

Democrat Positive

Unaffiliated Voter

Other

Negative

Source: Dan Jones & Associates

2019 - Quarter 3

11

SALT==LAKE

---- EST. 1887----

CHAMBER

UTAH'S BUSINESS LEADER