Utah Outlook 2020 - Q1

QUAR TER LY SURVEY OF U TAH RES IDEN T S 2020 - QU ART ER 1

The Salt Lake Chamber recognizes the link between public leadership and business well-being. On behalf of the Salt Lake Chamber, Dan Jones & Associates surveys likely voters and asks questions about the direction of our country and state, presidential and gubernatorial leadership, voter preferences for major races, and other timely issues important to the future of the state. The survey, which will be known as Utah Outlook, is conducted quarterly and includes likely voters.

A companion survey, the Salt Lake Chamber’s CEOutlook, queries toplevel business executives from a representative mix of industries about current and future economic conditions. Together, the Utah Outlook and CEOutlook help Utah business and community leaders make informed business decisions.

METHODOLOGY Dan Jones & Associates conducted a phone survey regarding the upcoming 2020 Utah Gubernatorial Primary and General elections, as well as other issues. The target audience was registered voters who are likely to vote in the upcoming Primary and General elections. The survey was in field from February 28th through March 11th, 2020.

Calls were administered to both landline and cellphone numbers, as well as through an online panel. With a final sample size of 798, the margin of error was +/-3.47% at a confidence interval of 95%. To ensure adequate representation of Utah voters, quotas were set by both county and age, proportional to the Utah Voter Registration list.

How interested are you in the 2020 General Election?

Please use a 0 to 10 scale with 0 meaning “not at all interested” and 10 meaning “very interested.”

Not at all Interested 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Very Interested 10

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

19%

13%

68%

Are you planning to vote in the 2020 General Election on November 3, 2020?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Very Likely

94%

Likely

6%

Unlikely

0%

RIGHT DIRECTION / WRONG DIRECTION Do you think the United States is going in the right or wrong direction?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Right Direction

48%

Wrong Direction

42%

Don’t Know

10%

Do you think Utah as a state is going in the right or wrong direction?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Right Direction

63%

Wrong Direction

25%

Don’t Know

12%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates 2020 - Quarter 1

3

FAVORABILITY/RE-ELECTABILITY I’ll read you a list of names…For each one, first tell me if you have heard of the person and, if so, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person:

Single-select

Very Favorable

Somewhat Favorable

Not Very Favorable

Not at all Favorable

Heard of, No Opinion

Never Heard of

President Donald Trump

37%

19%

8%

35%

1%

0%

Senator Mike Lee

28%

26%

11%

18%

11%

6%

Senator Mitt Romney

28%

28%

16%

26%

2%

0%

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

27%

39%

12%

9%

9%

5%

Governor Gary Herbert

34%

30%

14%

10%

8%

3%

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

25%

29%

8%

5%

16%

18%

Congressman Rob Bishop

13%

27%

13%

11%

15%

21%

Congressman Chris Stewart

17%

21%

7%

12%

18%

24%

Congressman John Curtis

12%

23%

7%

5%

22%

31%

Congressman Ben McAdams

14%

31%

15%

13%

13%

14%

Former Speaker Greg Hughes

8%

17%

11%

12%

20%

33%

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson

11%

24%

11%

6%

24%

25%

Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall

9%

20%

8%

5%

31%

28%

Councilwoman Aimee Winder Newton

4%

14%

3%

2%

21%

56%

Former Repub. Chair Thomas Wright

5%

11%

5%

4%

21%

54%

Entrepreneur Jeff Burningham

4%

13%

6%

3%

22%

52%

Businesswoman Jan Garbett

1%

6%

4%

2%

17%

71%

Congressman Chris Stewart

24%

20%

5%

18%

18%

14%

Congressman John Curtis

19%

28%

8%

3%

18%

23%

Congressman Ben McAdams

24%

39%

10%

13%

8%

5%

Congressional Districts

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the Utah’s Federal Congressional Delegation?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Very Favorable

9%

Somewhat Favorable

38%

Not Very Favorable

19%

Not at all Favorable

5%

Don’t Know

29%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates 4

Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the Utah State Legislature?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Very Favorable

10%

Somewhat Favorable

44%

Not Very Favorable

23%

Not at all Favorable

11%

Don’t Know

12%

I’ll read you a list of names…For each one, tell me if they have performed well enough that they should be re-elected to another term, or is it time to give someone new a chance to serve?

Single-select

Should be re-elected "to another term

Time to give someone new a chance to serve

Don’t Know

President Donald Trump

52%

45%

3%

Senator Mitt Romeny

49%

48%

3%

Senator Mike Lee

49%

40%

10%

Congressional Districts Congressman Chris Stewart

44%

40%

16%

Congressman John Curtis

51%

17%

32%

Congressman Ben McAdams

62%

32%

6%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates 2020 - Quarter 1

5

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY Are you planning to vote in the 2020 Presidential Primary Election on March 3, 2020?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

446

Yes, I already voted

50%

Yes, I am planning to

35%

No

15%

*Asked before March 4, 2020.

Did you vote in the 2020 Presidential Primary Election on March 3, 2020?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

352

Yes

68%

No

32%

*Asked before March 4, 2020.

For whom did you vote?

Single-select

Total

Republican

Unaffiliated

Democrat

(number responding)

220

14

44

162

Bernie Sanders

37%

29%

36%

38%

Joe Biden

19%

43%

11%

19%

Elizabeth Warren

18%

0%

16%

20%

Michael Bloomberg

12%

14%

14%

12%

Pete Buttigieg

9%

7%

11%

9%

Amy Klobuchar

5%

7%

11%

3%

*”Yes” respondents only of previous two questions. **Note: Republican ballot is not included above since President Trump didn’t have a strong opponent.

Source: Dan Jones & Associates 6

Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents

STATE PRIMARY ELECTION Are you planning to vote in the 2020 State Primary Election on June 30, 2020?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Very Likely

68%

Likely

20%

Unlikely

5%

Not at all Likely

4%

Don’t Know

3%

For whom will you most likely vote in the race for governor?

Open-ended

Total

Don't Know

412 (mentions)

Jon Huntsman, Jr.

130

Spencer Cox

121

Greg Hughes

23

Jeff Burningham

22

Gary Herbert

19

Democrat

12

Republican

10

Thomas Wright

10

Aimee Winder Newton

6

Mitt Romney

5

To vote by mail in the Republican Primary Election, you must request a Republican ballot.

The County Clerk’s Office will send a letter in May asking if you would like to receive a Republican or Democratic ballot for the June primary. Will you request a Republican ballot, knowing it will register you as a Republican?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

279

Yes

31%

No

57%

Prefer not to Answer

11%

*Unaffiliated voters only.

Source: Dan Jones & Associates 2020 - Quarter 1

7

GUBERNATORIAL RACE If the 2020 Primary Election for governor of Utah were held today and the candidates were the following, for whom would you likely vote?

Single-select

Total

All Voters

Very Likely/Likely Primary Voters

Republican

Unaffiliated

Republican +/- 5.33%

Unaffiliated +/- 6.53%

(number responding)

798

367

279

338

225

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

34%

27%

40%

27%

39%

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

23%

30%

19%

30%

19%

Former Speaker Greg Hughes

7%

12%

4%

12%

3%

Former Repub. Chair Thomas Wright

3%

6%

0%

7%

0%

Salt Lake County Councilwoman Aimee Winder Newton

3%

4%

2%

4%

3%

Entrepreneur Jeff Burningham

7%

6%

9%

6%

8%

Businesswoman Jan Garbett

2%

2%

3%

1%

4%

The Democratic nominee

3%

0%

3%

0%

3%

17%

15%

20%

14%

21%

Don’t know

Jan Garbett is the only Republican candidate who has expressed opposition to Donald Trump.

Does that make you more or less likely to support her?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Very Likely

19%

Likely

20%

Unlikely

13%

Not at all Likely

34%

Don’t Know

13%

Now, assume the field of candidates for governor is narrowed to two.

For whom would you likely vote for if the candidates were the following?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr.

54%

Lt. Governor Spencer Cox

46%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates 8

Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents

ISSUES In your opinion, what are the top one or two issues facing the country?

Open-ended

Total

Health Care

182 (mentions)

Immigration

149

Economy

117

National Debt/Spending

71

Climate Change

59

Coronavirus

53

President Donald Trump

49

In your opinion, what are the top one or two issues facing the state of Utah?

Open-ended

Total

Growth/Infrastructure/Housing/Population

248 (mentions)

Education

171

Air Quality/Climate Change/Pollution/Environment

139

Taxes/Tax Reform

102

Economy

67

Health Care

56

Housing

54

Church and State/LDS Church

53

I will read some issues currently facing the state of Utah. For each issue, please rate it using a 1-5 scale, with ONE meaning it is AT THE BOTTOM of your priority list and FIVE meaning it is AT THE TOP of your priority list.

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798 1 (bottom)

2

3

4

5 (top)

Increasing funding for education

8%

7%

17%

24%

44%

Promoting economic development and job creation

4%

9%

25%

28%

34%

Addressing air quality

7%

9%

22%

25%

37%

Addressing homelessness in Utah

6%

14%

30%

27%

23%

Alleviating traffic congestion

8%

12%

34%

24%

22%

Increasing funding for roads, highways and freeways

7%

14%

40%

21%

18%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates 2020 - Quarter 1

9

INLAND PORT How would you rate your understanding of the Inland Port in the area west of the Salt Lake International Airport?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Very Well

6%

Fairly Well

14%

Somewhat

25%

Slightly

20%

Not at All

34%

Do you support or oppose development of an Inland Port in the area west of the Salt Lake International Airport?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Strongly Support

17%

Somewhat Support

31%

Somewhat Oppose

11%

Strongly Oppose

11%

Don’t Know

31%

Source: Dan Jones & Associates 10

Utah Outlook: Quarterly Survey of Utah Residents

FUTURE WINTER OLYMPIC GAMES Do you support or oppose Salt Lake City seeking to host a future Winter Olympic Games?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Strongly Support

53%

Somewhat Support

30%

Somewhat Oppose

6%

Strongly Oppose

8%

Don’t Know

3%

IMMIGRATION Generally speaking, how do you think current immigration policy has affected Utah?

Single-select

Total

(number responding)

798

Very Positive

7%

Somewhat Positive

32%

Somewhat Negative

35%

Very Negative

14%

Don’t Know

12%

2020 - Quarter 1

11