Agenda 18.00 - 18.15 Welcome and Introduction By Henrik Mikkelsen, VP SAMT & Iridis AG 18.15 - 18.30 Saxo Bank Presentation By Tobias Baugartner, Saxo Bank AG 18.30 - 19.45 Insights and Outlook Presented by Henrik Mikkelsen S&P 500 USD Gold Special Theme – Gold Stock’s and their Index
19.45 - 21.00 Networking Apero Next event: September Themes: Stock Screening - Sector Rotation – Dynamic Asset Allocation - Risk Management - Position Sizing
SAMT Q 2 2016
Insight and Outlook
Zurich June 8th 2016 by Henrik Mikkelsen Iridis AG
DISCLAIMER THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY. IT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE IN ANY WAY ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATIONS TO TRADE. RISK WARNING:
The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Futures Trading Risk Warning: Transactions in securities futures, commodity and index futures and options on futures carry a high degree of risk. The amount of initial margin is small relative to the value of the futures contract, meaning that transactions are heavily "leveraged". A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited or will have to deposit: this may work against you as well as for you. You may sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and any additional funds deposited with the clearing firm to maintain your position. If the market moves against your position or margin levels are increased, you may be called upon to pay substantial additional funds on short notice to maintain your position. If you fail to comply with a request for additional funds within the time prescribed, your position may be liquidated at a loss and you will be liable for any resulting deficit. Forex and OTC Trading Risk Warning: Trading cash Foreign Exchange ("FX") and other kind of OTC contracts carries the same high level of risk as futures trading (Futures Trading Disclaimer). However cash and OTC contracts, unlike futures FX contracts that are regulated by the Commodity Trading Futures Commission, are not regulated by any governmental agency. In addition, because there is not a central clearing house for cash FX transactions, there is also a counterparty risk for each contract traded. Please read the following CFTC risk warning. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. THEREFORE, PAST PERFORMANCE OR SIMULATED RESULTS ARE NO GUARANTEE OF FURURE PROFITS, AND TRADING INCLUDE LARGE RISKS OF FINANCIAL RUIN. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDEROR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Henrik Mikkelsen Managing Partner, Iridis AG
Investment and Wealth Advice for HNWI’s, Family Offices, Funds and Corporates Stratetically and Tactical Asset Allocation Screening of investment products and management services and platforms Corporate Consultancy on financial and operational aspects Educational seminars on Rule-based Trading Strategies
2012 2004 - 2011 2000 - 2003 1997 - 1999 1988 - 1995
Managing Partner Head of Power Portfolio Management Senior Portfolio and Client Manager Senior Market Maker Fixed Income Interbank Trader FX and FI
Iridis AG Vattenfall Nordea AM & PB Nordea IB Danske Bank IB
1993 Thesis at CBS Business University, Finance & Investment Copenhagen Business School, CBS “Technical Analysis – An Input to Trading and Risk Management in Corporations”
S&P 500 USD Gold Special Theme – Gold Stock’s and their Index
235
S&P 500 Scenarions (1998 – 2015)
230 225 220
Scenario 1) Correction down already finished = New top coming in H1 2016, Target 2.150 to 2.250 Scenario 2) First part of 3 in correction down it finished = New top coming in H2 2016, Target 2.150 to 2.300 Scenario 3) Top seen since base in 2011 = Correction should take 50-60 % down from top to base = 1.550 The more negative scenario and resolution 3 exists, but this would require systematic and/or geopolical issue on large scale.
215 210 205 200 195 190 185 180 175 170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120
115
110
105
100 350 300 250
S&P 500, 1928 - 2015
200
95
150
100
90
50
85
80
75
70
65
x10 1928
1998 M A M J J A S O N D 1999 M A M J J A S O N D 2000
A M J J A S O N D 2001 M A M J J A S O N D 2002
A M J J A S O N D 2003 M A M J J A S O N D 2004 M A M J J A S O N D 2005 M A M J J A S O N D 2006
A M J J A S O N D 2007
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
A M J J A S O N D 2008 M A M J J A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N D 2011
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
A M J J A S O N D 2012 M A M J J A S O N D 2013
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
x1060
2016
A M J J A S O N D 2014 M A M J J A S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N
2300
Daily SP500 Bar Chart
S&P 500 1979 - 2015, Nom. Scale Provides structural support in the ares around 1.800 – 1.850 in S&P 500
2250
2200
2150
2100
2050
2000
1950
1900
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
1979
1980
1981
1982
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1988
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1991
1992
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1994
1995
1996
1997
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1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
225 220 215 210 205 200 195 190 185 180 175 170
S&P 500 Monthly
165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75
70
65
60
55
50
45
x10 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
N D 1993 A M J J A S O N D 1994 A M J J A S O N D 1995 A M J J A S O N D 1996 A M J J A S O N D 1997 A M J J A S O N D 1998 A M J J A S O N D 1999 A M J J A S O N D 2000 A M J J A S O N D 2001 A M J J A S O N D 2002 A M J J A S O N D 2003 A M J J A S O N D 2004 A M J J A S O N D 2005 A M J J A S O N D 2006 A M J J A S O N D 2007 A M J J A S O N D 2008 A M J J A S O N D 2009 A M J J A S O N D 2010 A M J J A S O N D 2011 A M J J A S O N D 2012 A M J J A S O N D 2013 A M J J A S O N D 2014 A M J J A S O N D 2015 A M J J A S O N D 2016 A M J J A S O N
S&P 500 Weekly
220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90
80
70 x10
0 -5 -10
50 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010
Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011
Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016
Mar Apr May Jun Jul
2150
S&PS&P500 500 Daily 5th or 3rd. Wave = Medium Term or Long Term and Final Top Daily b or 2
a in B of 4. Wave UP or II. in 3. wave DOWN
II
2100 2050
b in B of 4. ware up or II in 3. wave DOWN
I IV
2000 1950 1900
a or 1 A in 4. Wave UP or 1. in 3. wave DOWN
Source: MetaStock Xenith Platform MetaStock R/T
1850 1800
PPO
1 38,2 % Target for C at 1.722
0 -1 -2
Double Stoch
50 8
15 22 29 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 31 8 14 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28 4 11 19 25 1 8 16 22 29 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 July August September October November December 2016 February March April May
16 23 31 6 13 June
S&P 500 Hourly
S&P 500 Daily with Resolutions From 2025 and UP 61,8 % of wave a = 2.208 - 2.211 100 % of wave a = 2.313 – 2.313
From 2.115 and DOWN Top Pattern reflected down = 1.480 – 1.560 in first leg!!!
S&P 500 USD Gold Special Theme – Gold Stock’s and their Index
EUR/USD Monthly
38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 76.4%
1
1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 2 or B 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 C and 4 DOWN 1.20 Aor 1.15 3 in 1 and1.10 UP 1.05 3 orBC 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60
PPO
5 0 -5
Double Stoch 50 0 1975
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Weekly EUR/USD Spot 1.45
2 or B 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25
A
1
C and 4 DOWN or 3 in 1 and UP
1.20 1.15 1.10
3 or C
1.05
B
1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4
PPO
Double Stoch 50 0 S
O N D
2012 M A M J
J A
S O N D 2013 M A M J J A
S O N
D 2014
M A M J J A
S O N D 2015
M A M J J
A S O N D 2016
M A
M J J
Weekly Emerging Market Currencies, ETF CEW
24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16
PPO
0
Double Stoch
50 2009 J
A S O N D 2010
M A M J J
A S O N D 2011 M A M J J
A S O N D 2012 M A M J
J A S O N D 2013 M A M J J A S O N D 2014
M A M J J A S O N D 2015
M A M J J
A S O N D 2016
M A
M J J
410 400
USD/JPY WEEKLY
390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180
170
160
150
140
130 0.0%
120 23.6%
110 38.2%
50.0%
100
61.8%
90
80
100.0%
70
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
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1984
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1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
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1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
USD/JPY WEEKLY
130
5 0.0%
125 120 115
23.6%
110 38.2%
3
105
50.0%
100
4
61.8%
95 90
1
85 80
2
100.0%
75
0
50 Jul Aug Sep
Nov Dec 2011
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Nov Dec 2013
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Nov Dec 2014
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Nov Dec 2015
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016
Mar Apr May Jun Jul
2015
5 and TOP
USD/JPY Daily XXXXDaily
100.0%
125
b or B
120 61.8% 50.0%
IV in 5
115
a or A
38.2%
110
23.6%
c or C / X
0.0%
105
PPO
0
Double Stoch February March
50 April
May
June
July
August
September October
November December 2016
February March
April
May
June
S&P 500 USD Gold Special Theme – Gold Stock’s and their Index
Gold Cash
Gold Cash
200 B
100
A C Y
B
B A
C and X
A C and Z
x10
PPO 0 Double Stoch 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
50
Gold
1 or A
130 125 120 115 110 105
Base
PPO
x10
A
0
Double Stoch 2015
February March
50 April
May
June
July
August
September October
November December 2016
February March
April
May
June
1.450 - 1.550 133 132
Gold
132
1 or A
131 131 130
0.0%
130 129 129 128
B
128 127 127 126 126 125 125
1245
124
23.6%
124 123 123 122 122 121 121
1205
120
38.2%
120 119 119 118 118
1175
117
50.0%
117 116 116 115 115
1145
114
61.8%
114 113 113 112 112 111 111 110 110 109 109 108 108 107 107 106 106 105 105 100.0%
104 104
Base
103 103 x10 102
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 16
23
30
7 December
14
21
28
4 2016
11
18
25
1 February
8
15
22
29
7 March
14
21
28
4 April
11
18
25
2 May
9
16
23
30
6 June
13
2 or A and X
May 19, 2016 There is a major cycle low looming for gold prices. Ideally it should arrive as a price low in late 2016. But based on history, it could arrive anytime between August 2016 and March 2017, and still fit within the normal tolerance. Defining a normal tolerance for gold’s 8-year cycle is a pretty iffy proposition. We have only 5 prior examples to go by, and while they cover a period of over 40 years, anyone who ever studied statistics knows that n<30 is problematic. If you want to wait until n=30 before believing in this cycle, then you only have to wait until the year 2215. If you are willing to accept the message from fewer iterations, then this week’s chart has some interesting insights to offer. A few years ago I constructed this idealized 8-year cycle pattern, and featured it in our newsletter. The one leg up, 3-waves down pattern has “worked” ever since gold finally started trading freely in 1975, with one major exception. From 2001 to 2009, the normal “left translation” flipped to a more bullish right translation mode. Aside from that one strong uptrending period, gold’s price pattern has matched this artificial pattern pretty well. The relevance of that insight for the current period is that the next major 8-year cycle bottom is due this autumn. Ideally it should be due in February 2017, but another tool suggests that late 2016 is more likely to see the arrival of that bottom. There is a dominant 13-1/2 month cycle in gold prices. The next major cycle low is ideally due in October 2016, but gold regularly makes bottoms plus or minus a month from the ideal cycle bottoms. So this is not a tool that will allow anyone to reasonably pencil in a hard date for when the cycle low is due. Still, an autumn 2016 bottom for the 13-1/2 month cycle fits well with the idea of a major 8-year cycle low due in late 2016 to early 2017. One additional insight from the 13-1/2 month cycle is that we have already seen “right translation” of the price pattern versus this cycle, and that one piece of information conveys bullish portents for the likelihood of a higher price high for gold in 2017, once we get past the upcoming big cycle low. Bottom Line: We have two major long-term cycles, both calling for an important bottom in gold prices in late 2016. That’s a big deal. The two are independent of each other, and their confluence in calling for a bottom later this year has strong implications. Gold prices ought to be expected to drop downward into that cycle low, but more importantly we should expect a big uptrend to commence out of that major cycle bottom. It will be hard for gold bugs to be patient and wait for that major cycle low to arrive, but the long term cycles say that the ensuing rally should be worth the wait.
S&P 500 USD Gold Special Theme – Gold Stock’s and their Index
Theme â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Gold Indices HUI
650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
PPO
0 Double Stoch 1996 1997
50 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 5 0 PPO
-5
50
StO
50 RSI
10 0 -10 x10000000
ChADO & OBV
October
November
December
2014
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2015
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2016
February
March
April
May
June
26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.5 20.0 19.5 19.0 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5
0
PPO
50
StO
50
RSI
0
ChADO & OBV
8
11 12 13 14 15 19 20 21 22 25 26 27 28 29 1 2 3 February
4
5
8
9
10 11 12 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 1 2 March
3
4
7
8
9
10 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 28 29 30 31 1 4 April
5
6
7
8
11 12 13 14 15 18 19 20 21 22 25 26 27 28 29 2 3 May
4
5
6
9
10 11 12 13 16 17 18 19 20 23 24 25 26 27 31 1 2 June
3
6
7
8
SAMT Q 2 2016
Insight and Outlook
Thank you for contributing Henrik Mikkelsen Iridis AG hm@iridisag.com +41 76 610 1325 www.iridisag.com