SAMT Zurich Q2 2016 event

Page 1


Agenda 18.00 - 18.15 Welcome and Introduction By Henrik Mikkelsen, VP SAMT & Iridis AG 18.15 - 18.30 Saxo Bank Presentation By Tobias Baugartner, Saxo Bank AG 18.30 - 19.45 Insights and Outlook Presented by Henrik Mikkelsen S&P 500 USD Gold Special Theme – Gold Stock’s and their Index

19.45 - 21.00 Networking Apero Next event: September Themes: Stock Screening - Sector Rotation – Dynamic Asset Allocation - Risk Management - Position Sizing


SAMT Q 2 2016

Insight and Outlook

Zurich June 8th 2016 by Henrik Mikkelsen Iridis AG


DISCLAIMER THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY. IT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE IN ANY WAY ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATIONS TO TRADE. RISK WARNING:

The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Futures Trading Risk Warning: Transactions in securities futures, commodity and index futures and options on futures carry a high degree of risk. The amount of initial margin is small relative to the value of the futures contract, meaning that transactions are heavily "leveraged". A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited or will have to deposit: this may work against you as well as for you. You may sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and any additional funds deposited with the clearing firm to maintain your position. If the market moves against your position or margin levels are increased, you may be called upon to pay substantial additional funds on short notice to maintain your position. If you fail to comply with a request for additional funds within the time prescribed, your position may be liquidated at a loss and you will be liable for any resulting deficit. Forex and OTC Trading Risk Warning: Trading cash Foreign Exchange ("FX") and other kind of OTC contracts carries the same high level of risk as futures trading (Futures Trading Disclaimer). However cash and OTC contracts, unlike futures FX contracts that are regulated by the Commodity Trading Futures Commission, are not regulated by any governmental agency. In addition, because there is not a central clearing house for cash FX transactions, there is also a counterparty risk for each contract traded. Please read the following CFTC risk warning. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. THEREFORE, PAST PERFORMANCE OR SIMULATED RESULTS ARE NO GUARANTEE OF FURURE PROFITS, AND TRADING INCLUDE LARGE RISKS OF FINANCIAL RUIN. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDEROR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.


Henrik Mikkelsen Managing Partner, Iridis AG     

Investment and Wealth Advice for HNWI’s, Family Offices, Funds and Corporates Stratetically and Tactical Asset Allocation Screening of investment products and management services and platforms Corporate Consultancy on financial and operational aspects Educational seminars on Rule-based Trading Strategies

2012 2004 - 2011 2000 - 2003 1997 - 1999 1988 - 1995

Managing Partner Head of Power Portfolio Management Senior Portfolio and Client Manager Senior Market Maker Fixed Income Interbank Trader FX and FI

Iridis AG Vattenfall Nordea AM & PB Nordea IB Danske Bank IB

1993 Thesis at CBS Business University, Finance & Investment Copenhagen Business School, CBS “Technical Analysis – An Input to Trading and Risk Management in Corporations”


S&P 500 USD Gold Special Theme – Gold Stock’s and their Index


235

S&P 500 Scenarions (1998 – 2015)

230 225 220

Scenario 1) Correction down already finished = New top coming in H1 2016, Target 2.150 to 2.250 Scenario 2) First part of 3 in correction down it finished = New top coming in H2 2016, Target 2.150 to 2.300 Scenario 3) Top seen since base in 2011 = Correction should take 50-60 % down from top to base = 1.550 The more negative scenario and resolution 3 exists, but this would require systematic and/or geopolical issue on large scale.

215 210 205 200 195 190 185 180 175 170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120

115

110

105

100 350 300 250

S&P 500, 1928 - 2015

200

95

150

100

90

50

85

80

75

70

65

x10 1928

1998 M A M J J A S O N D 1999 M A M J J A S O N D 2000

A M J J A S O N D 2001 M A M J J A S O N D 2002

A M J J A S O N D 2003 M A M J J A S O N D 2004 M A M J J A S O N D 2005 M A M J J A S O N D 2006

A M J J A S O N D 2007

1929

1930

1931

1932

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

A M J J A S O N D 2008 M A M J J A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N D 2011

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

A M J J A S O N D 2012 M A M J J A S O N D 2013

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

x1060

2016

A M J J A S O N D 2014 M A M J J A S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O N


2300

Daily SP500 Bar Chart

S&P 500 1979 - 2015, Nom. Scale Provides structural support in the ares around 1.800 – 1.850 in S&P 500

2250

2200

2150

2100

2050

2000

1950

1900

1850

1800

1750

1700

1650

1600

1550

1500

1450

1400

1350

1300

1250

1200

1150

1100

1050

1000

950

900

850

800

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


225 220 215 210 205 200 195 190 185 180 175 170

S&P 500 Monthly

165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75

70

65

60

55

50

45

x10 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

N D 1993 A M J J A S O N D 1994 A M J J A S O N D 1995 A M J J A S O N D 1996 A M J J A S O N D 1997 A M J J A S O N D 1998 A M J J A S O N D 1999 A M J J A S O N D 2000 A M J J A S O N D 2001 A M J J A S O N D 2002 A M J J A S O N D 2003 A M J J A S O N D 2004 A M J J A S O N D 2005 A M J J A S O N D 2006 A M J J A S O N D 2007 A M J J A S O N D 2008 A M J J A S O N D 2009 A M J J A S O N D 2010 A M J J A S O N D 2011 A M J J A S O N D 2012 A M J J A S O N D 2013 A M J J A S O N D 2014 A M J J A S O N D 2015 A M J J A S O N D 2016 A M J J A S O N


S&P 500 Weekly

220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90

80

70 x10

0 -5 -10

50 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010

Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011

Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016

Mar Apr May Jun Jul


2150

S&PS&P500 500 Daily 5th or 3rd. Wave = Medium Term or Long Term and Final Top Daily b or 2

a in B of 4. Wave UP or II. in 3. wave DOWN

II

2100 2050

b in B of 4. ware up or II in 3. wave DOWN

I IV

2000 1950 1900

a or 1 A in 4. Wave UP or 1. in 3. wave DOWN

Source: MetaStock Xenith Platform MetaStock R/T

1850 1800

PPO

1 38,2 % Target for C at 1.722

0 -1 -2

Double Stoch

50 8

15 22 29 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 31 8 14 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28 4 11 19 25 1 8 16 22 29 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 July August September October November December 2016 February March April May

16 23 31 6 13 June


S&P 500 Hourly



S&P 500 Daily with Resolutions From 2025 and UP 61,8 % of wave a = 2.208 - 2.211 100 % of wave a = 2.313 – 2.313

From 2.115 and DOWN Top Pattern reflected down = 1.480 – 1.560 in first leg!!!


S&P 500 USD Gold Special Theme – Gold Stock’s and their Index


EUR/USD Monthly

38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 76.4%

1

1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 2 or B 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 C and 4 DOWN 1.20 Aor 1.15 3 in 1 and1.10 UP 1.05 3 orBC 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60

PPO

5 0 -5

Double Stoch 50 0 1975

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Weekly EUR/USD Spot 1.45

2 or B 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25

A

1

C and 4 DOWN or 3 in 1 and UP

1.20 1.15 1.10

3 or C

1.05

B

1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4

PPO

Double Stoch 50 0 S

O N D

2012 M A M J

J A

S O N D 2013 M A M J J A

S O N

D 2014

M A M J J A

S O N D 2015

M A M J J

A S O N D 2016

M A

M J J


Weekly Emerging Market Currencies, ETF CEW

24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16

PPO

0

Double Stoch

50 2009 J

A S O N D 2010

M A M J J

A S O N D 2011 M A M J J

A S O N D 2012 M A M J

J A S O N D 2013 M A M J J A S O N D 2014

M A M J J A S O N D 2015

M A M J J

A S O N D 2016

M A

M J J


410 400

USD/JPY WEEKLY

390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180

170

160

150

140

130 0.0%

120 23.6%

110 38.2%

50.0%

100

61.8%

90

80

100.0%

70

5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

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1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016


USD/JPY WEEKLY

130

5 0.0%

125 120 115

23.6%

110 38.2%

3

105

50.0%

100

4

61.8%

95 90

1

85 80

2

100.0%

75

0

50 Jul Aug Sep

Nov Dec 2011

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Nov Dec 2013

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Nov Dec 2014

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Nov Dec 2015

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016

Mar Apr May Jun Jul


2015

5 and TOP

USD/JPY Daily XXXXDaily

100.0%

125

b or B

120 61.8% 50.0%

IV in 5

115

a or A

38.2%

110

23.6%

c or C / X

0.0%

105

PPO

0

Double Stoch February March

50 April

May

June

July

August

September October

November December 2016

February March

April

May

June


S&P 500 USD Gold Special Theme – Gold Stock’s and their Index


Gold Cash



Gold Cash

200 B

100

A C Y

B

B A

C and X

A C and Z

x10

PPO 0 Double Stoch 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

50


Gold

1 or A

130 125 120 115 110 105

Base

PPO

x10

A

0

Double Stoch 2015

February March

50 April

May

June

July

August

September October

November December 2016

February March

April

May

June


1.450 - 1.550 133 132

Gold

132

1 or A

131 131 130

0.0%

130 129 129 128

B

128 127 127 126 126 125 125

1245

124

23.6%

124 123 123 122 122 121 121

1205

120

38.2%

120 119 119 118 118

1175

117

50.0%

117 116 116 115 115

1145

114

61.8%

114 113 113 112 112 111 111 110 110 109 109 108 108 107 107 106 106 105 105 100.0%

104 104

Base

103 103 x10 102

3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 16

23

30

7 December

14

21

28

4 2016

11

18

25

1 February

8

15

22

29

7 March

14

21

28

4 April

11

18

25

2 May

9

16

23

30

6 June

13

2 or A and X


May 19, 2016 There is a major cycle low looming for gold prices. Ideally it should arrive as a price low in late 2016. But based on history, it could arrive anytime between August 2016 and March 2017, and still fit within the normal tolerance. Defining a normal tolerance for gold’s 8-year cycle is a pretty iffy proposition. We have only 5 prior examples to go by, and while they cover a period of over 40 years, anyone who ever studied statistics knows that n<30 is problematic. If you want to wait until n=30 before believing in this cycle, then you only have to wait until the year 2215. If you are willing to accept the message from fewer iterations, then this week’s chart has some interesting insights to offer. A few years ago I constructed this idealized 8-year cycle pattern, and featured it in our newsletter. The one leg up, 3-waves down pattern has “worked” ever since gold finally started trading freely in 1975, with one major exception. From 2001 to 2009, the normal “left translation” flipped to a more bullish right translation mode. Aside from that one strong uptrending period, gold’s price pattern has matched this artificial pattern pretty well. The relevance of that insight for the current period is that the next major 8-year cycle bottom is due this autumn. Ideally it should be due in February 2017, but another tool suggests that late 2016 is more likely to see the arrival of that bottom. There is a dominant 13-1/2 month cycle in gold prices. The next major cycle low is ideally due in October 2016, but gold regularly makes bottoms plus or minus a month from the ideal cycle bottoms. So this is not a tool that will allow anyone to reasonably pencil in a hard date for when the cycle low is due. Still, an autumn 2016 bottom for the 13-1/2 month cycle fits well with the idea of a major 8-year cycle low due in late 2016 to early 2017. One additional insight from the 13-1/2 month cycle is that we have already seen “right translation” of the price pattern versus this cycle, and that one piece of information conveys bullish portents for the likelihood of a higher price high for gold in 2017, once we get past the upcoming big cycle low. Bottom Line: We have two major long-term cycles, both calling for an important bottom in gold prices in late 2016. That’s a big deal. The two are independent of each other, and their confluence in calling for a bottom later this year has strong implications. Gold prices ought to be expected to drop downward into that cycle low, but more importantly we should expect a big uptrend to commence out of that major cycle bottom. It will be hard for gold bugs to be patient and wait for that major cycle low to arrive, but the long term cycles say that the ensuing rally should be worth the wait.


S&P 500 USD Gold Special Theme – Gold Stock’s and their Index


Theme – Gold Indices HUI

650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

PPO

0 Double Stoch 1996 1997

50 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016


28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 5 0 PPO

-5

50

StO

50 RSI

10 0 -10 x10000000

ChADO & OBV

October

November

December

2014

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2015

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2016

February

March

April

May

June


26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.5 20.0 19.5 19.0 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5

0

PPO

50

StO

50

RSI

0

ChADO & OBV

8

11 12 13 14 15 19 20 21 22 25 26 27 28 29 1 2 3 February

4

5

8

9

10 11 12 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 1 2 March

3

4

7

8

9

10 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 28 29 30 31 1 4 April

5

6

7

8

11 12 13 14 15 18 19 20 21 22 25 26 27 28 29 2 3 May

4

5

6

9

10 11 12 13 16 17 18 19 20 23 24 25 26 27 31 1 2 June

3

6

7

8


SAMT Q 2 2016

Insight and Outlook

Thank you for contributing Henrik Mikkelsen Iridis AG hm@iridisag.com +41 76 610 1325 www.iridisag.com


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