Bureaucrats ban betting

What will happen in the future? Is there a way to know?

There is, maybe. One technique that predicts the future better than any other is prediction markets. The stock market is one. It lets people bet on the prospects of companies. The market often predicts wrong, but a rising stock price is a better forecaster of company success than 100 executives or 10,000 politicians. Falling stocks are good predictors, too. Prediction markets succeed because of “The Wisdom of Crowds,” which is also the name of a book by James Surowiecki.

Crowds? That seems odd.

Crowds can be like ... mobs! Stupid and out of control.

President Back Obama gave priority to publicly criticizing the government of Syria and encouraging regime change. The well-intended rhetoric proved extremely counter-productive, predictably. President Jimmy Carter took a similar approach to the world, emphasizing morality over reality.

Fundamental problems with emphasis on human rights above all else regarding Syria is the lack of any tradition of representative government. There are no desirable alternatives to President Bashar al-Assad.

The Syria government plays an important role in resisting and defeating violent fundamentalist movements, notably the Islamic State. Turkey is a pivotal nation, Western in practices but with a Moslem majority. After the revolution in the 1920s led by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the government of Turkey became constitutionally secular. Turkey commands vital sea lanes and trade routes, including the Strait of Bosporus. The nation pursues economic relationships with the states of the former Soviet Union. Moscow’s influence has deteriorated since invading Ukraine.

Historically, TurkeyU.S. cooperation is strongly rooted. Turkey was engaged in Afghanistan, including military command responsibilities. During the first Persian Gulf War, U.S. B-52 bombers were deployed on Turkish soil, a risky move for that government. Turkey played a vital Allied role during the Korean War; the U.N. military cemetery at Pusan contains a notably large number of Turkish graves.

This background is of great importance in this unstable region where Turkey-U.S. ties have been badly strained. Ankara rightly angrily opposed the Bush administration’s disastrous 2003 invasion of Iraq.

The U.S. government should do nothing that would appear to be taking any national advantage of the terrible human tragedies unfolding in the wake of the devastating earthquakes. Work should remain focused on humanitarian relief. That is both ethical and smart.

Our military has extraordinary capacities. The Pentagon has enormous assets to supplement and temporarily replace destroyed water and power supplies and provide medical services (including specialized surgical help) and to evacuate people injured or at risk of injury.

Syrians, Turks, Americans and others should be assured this is the priority. Longer-term, this aids sensible, effective diplomacy.

Arthur I. Cyr is author of “After the Cold War - American Foreign Policy, Europe and Asia” (NYU Press and Palgrave/Macmillan). He is also the director of the Clausen Center at Carthage College in Kenosha, Wisc., and a Clausen Distinguished Professor. He welcomes questions and comments at acyr@carthage.edu.