The Counter Terrorist Magazine - Aug. /Sept.

DANGER FOLLOWS YOU HOME • WHAT CAN I DO • PAX AMER-IRAN • VIEW OF IRAN

Journal for Law Enforcement, Intelligence & Special Operations Professionals

AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2015

VOLUME 8 • NUMBER 4

PROTECTING OUR VITAL SUPPLY CHAIN: EXERCISES FOR MARITIME SECURITY

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Counter

The Journal for Law Enforcement, Intelligence & Special Operations Professionals AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2015

VOLUME 8 • NUMBER 4

COVER STORY:

30

CONTENTS

30

18

46

58

PROTECTING OUR VITAL SUPPLY CHAIN: EXERCISES FOR MARITIME SECURITY

By Simon Grantham

FEATURES:

08

Firsthand: WHEN DANGER FOLLOWS US HOME: PERSONAL VULNERABILITY AND TARGET HARDENING

By Glenn McGovern

18

Case Study: PAX AMERI-IRAN

By Avi Melamed

46

WHAT CAN I DO?

By Shelley Klingerman

58

ANOTHER VIEW OF IRAN: WHAT CAN BE LEARNED FROM SOCIAL MEDIA

By Katie Pototsky

DEPARTMENTS: 06

From the Editor

44

Book Review

69

Innovative Products

72

Appeasement and Our Future Boko Haram: Nigeria’s Islamist Insurgency Southern Police Equipment, Counter Assault, Custom Cut Foam

Training Review

Active Shooter Training

Cover Photo: A Coast Guard Maritime Security Response Team member provides cover during a helicopter fast-rope boarding May 4, 2015, aboard the civilian passenger ship the Spirit of Norfolk, during a MSRT training demonstration. Photo by: Petty Officer 3rd Class David Weydert

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 5

Counter The

FROM THE EDITOR:

Appeasement and Our Future

By Henry Morgenstern Journal for Law Enforcement, Intelligence & Special Operations Professionals

I

t’s my honor and a privilege to address our readers in this issue as The Editor.

I am looking forward to working with you to create valuable articles that share your know-how with our brothers and sisters in the First Responder, Military, Intelligence and Police communities. We thank you for being avid readers and will do everything not to let you down.

That brings me to a very sincere thank you to the previous Editor, Chris Graham. Taking over after our very first issue, and despite being frequently on active service across the globe, Chris Graham did an excellent job for the last 7 years of working with authors to create compelling, timely and meaningful articles that improve our understanding of tactics and strategies. Chris, we wish you the best in the future and thank you for doing so well with the Counter Terrorist.

Being a magazine that is bi-monthly, we try not to be tied to the events of the moment but to write instead about events and incidents whose understanding will make your difficult job safer. This month, as we go to print, it is unavoidable that we cover the twists and turns of our increasingly incomprehensible foreign policy with respect to the so-called Nuclear Agreement with Iran.

It is so very easy to look at poor, pathetic Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper in 1938 proclaiming that “We have peace in our times” because we now know that a war destroying some 30 million lives, and many countries forever was the result just a year later. And we know that Hitler had never, ever intended to keep to the agreement and ripped it up a few months later.

What do we know now, and what will we know in the future? We know at the beginning of these negotiations in 2014 that there was to be no enrichment, strident verification, and no Sanctions relief until compliance. We know the Iranians were starving due to the sanctions. Ready for a deal they needed. What we know now is very bad. They have endless enrichment possibilities; they have facilities such as Fordow that are clearly military; they are demanding a signing “bonus” that may total $150 billion; President Obama said on Israeli Television that a military solution will not work—taking off the table our real trump card.

Let’s just hope the President doesn’t say “We have Peace in our Times”. If this goes through, it will soon be time to batten down the hatches.

Henry Morgenstern Editor, The Counter Terrorist

VOLUME 8 • NUMBER 4

AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2015 Editor Henry Morgenstern Director of Operations Carmen Arnaes Director of Advertizing Sol Bradman Administrative Ashley Villegas Contributing Editors Glen McGovern Katie Pototsky Garett Machine Shelley Klingerman Graphic Design Morrison Creative Company Copy Editor Laura Town

Advertising Sales Sol Bradman bradman@homelandsecurityssi.com 305-302-2790 Publisher: Security Solutions International 13155 SW 134th St. • STE 103 Miami, Florida 33186 ISSN 1941-8639 The Counter Terrorist Magazine, Journal for Law Enforcement, Intelligence & Special Operations Professionals is published by Security Solutions International LLC, as a service to the nation’s First Responders and Homeland Security Professionals with the aim of deepening understanding of issues related to Terrorism. No part of the publication can be reproduced without permission from the publisher. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the authors represented and not necessarily the opinions of the publisher. Please direct all Editorial correspondence related to the magazine to: Security Solutions International SSI, 13155 SW 134th Street, Suite 103, Miami, Florida.

33186 or info@thecounterterroristmag.com The subscription price for 6 issues is $34.99 and the price of the magazine is $5.99.

(1-866-573-3999) Fax: 1-786-573-2090.

For article reprints, e-prints, posters and plaques please contact: Security Solutions International at villegas@homelandsecurityssi.com or call 786-573-3999 Please visit the magazine web site where you can also contact the editorial staff:

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Firsthand:

WHEN DANGER FOLLOWS US HOME: PERSONAL VULNERABILITY AND TARGET HARDENING 8 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

By Glenn McGovern

For those in the law enforcement, security, military, and intelligence professions, the prospect of being involved in a dangerous, potentially life-ending situation is understood and accepted. It is an inherent aspect of these career fields, but one that is anticipated, trained, and equipped for.

Y

et despite this, every year we suffer the loss of colleagues, from the greenest rookie to the gnarliest veteran to even the occasional chief. We mourn, we learn from it, and we move on. It is the grim reminder that every day at work is potentially our last and that this is an aspect of the job that cannot be changed. The one consolation is that in most cases the violence is confined to the duty hours.

It is precisely due to this danger potential that people in these professions spend hundreds of hours developing and maintaining tactical skills. How many times have we been reminded to remain situationally aware, to never fall into routine? How many thousands of dollars have our respective agencies and we personally spent on armor, communication, firearms, knifes, and training? How many hours have you run

through mental scenario drills in an effort to anticipate likely attacks and shorten reaction times? The answers to these questions are difficult to quantify as they are always ongoing, never stagnant.

Using body armor and communication gear, carrying a high-capacity side arm, and employing solid, well-practiced tactics along with the comfort of a trusted partner’s presence, we go about accomplishing the mission in the relative

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 9

33% 20%

LOCATION OF ATTACKS IN U.S.

comfort that we are prepared to deal with any danger that might come our way. As any professional can attest, when stepping off the vehicle or secured location, they are in a zone. Their senses of hearing, sight, and even smell are heightened as they scan the surrounding area to detect any hostile presence at the earliest possible stage.

The vast majority of our adversaries understand that being contacted, captured, and arrested by the authorities comes with the “job.” Sure, they may lie, run, resist, and occasionally even threaten us, but they accept the reality for what it is. The threats they spew are most often nothing more than the emotional release stemming from their present predicament, or perhaps a bully’s bravado in front of their peers—again, understandable. Occasionally however,

these threats progress beyond mere chatter and take a far more ominous form. Sometimes the dangers of the job even follow us home, where and when we are the most susceptible. These types of targeted attacks are not some emotional outburst commonly encountered during contacts, or those spawned out of mere opportunity due to proximity. Rather they are targeted killings against a specific individual either out of a thirst of revenge or to make a statement against an agency or government.

The recent calls by ISIS for lone wolf attacks on American service members and first responders to the point of providing the home addresses of some of these men and women only further highlights the potential threat. While a spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security has stated they have “no credible

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intelligence” to suggest there is an active plot by ISIS to conduct an attack in the United States, the increase in recent years of attacks by self-initiated extremists is cause for concern and should cause us all to remain always vigilant.

LOCATION OF ATTACKS A study of targeted attacks discovered that globally between January of 1950 and December of 2008, targeted attacks occurred at the residence 34% of the time. Another 37% occurred while the targeted individual was traveling, usually between the residence and office locations. In the United States, the percentages stand at 33% and 20% respectively, while in Europe the residence was witness to 43% with another 29% occurring what in transit. More to the point, the work location accounted for only 16% of all attacks, worldwide.

These targeted attacks are well-planned, allowing the adversary to be successful upwards of 80% of the time, regardless of the target’s background.

These statistics highlight a potential weak link in our collective security armor. In contrast to the efforts of security and preparation for violence while at work, what is done by you and/ or your employer when off duty? The likely answer is little to nothing. This fact has not be lost on society’s nefarious elements, as the above statistics indicate, as well as those arrested for plotting a targeted attack who have confessed to researching, surveillance and reconning the target’s home location or routes of travel.

PERSONAL VULNERABILITY Tactically speaking, the location for these ambushes is logical. There is

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The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 11

little to no physical security stationed in residential areas. The lighting is often more of a decorative nature then truly functional. The areas tend to have less vehicle and pedestrian traffic, thereby decreasing the likelihood of witnesses and/or neighbors noticing a hostile presence. There are numerous areas around homes to hide and wait depending upon the layout, the foliage, and so on. Beyond the environmental benefits, the targets themselves often facilitate an attack.

Consider for a moment life away from the “office.� We shed all of our protective gear, our communication equipment, and perhaps reduce to an off-duty weapon of a smaller size with only a single magazine.

We jump into our personal cars and off we go. Maybe you remain alert for possible surveillance while driving home, perhaps varying your routes of travel as you have had drilled into your

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subconscious, but likely you take the same way each and every day, thinking about other things.

The problem is, in addition to shedding your fighting gear, have you also dropped your awareness? On October 31, 1985, Los Angeles Police Detective Thomas Williams was assassinated outside his son’s daycare (classified a frequented

location) by a defendant in an ongoing trial. It was later learned that he had been surveilled on at least two previous occasions. On April 21, 1989 in Manila, Philippines, a motorcycle hit team assassinated U.S. Army Special Forces Colonel James Rowe while traveling from his home to work. Both of these men were highly skilled professionals, yet had they succumbed to human nature and relaxed their guard?

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While the actual penetration of a home by a violent individual is the nightmare scenario, it is exceedingly rare. If you have ever entered a building hunting a hostile, you know how dangerous it can be due to your unfamiliarity with the layout, a lack of lighting, and your uncertain knowledge of who or what is inside, waiting. The same goes for your adversary, which is why most targeted attacks at the residence occur between the front door and the vehicle. On July 1, 1973, in Chevy Chase, Maryland, Yosuf Alon, an Air Force officer and military attaché with the Israeli consulate, was assassinated by what was believed to be a Black September hit squad as he reached into the back seat of his car that he had just parked on his home driveway. Although the attack remains officially unsolved to this day, it was later determined the killers had visited the location on at least one previous occasion as part of their preparation.

Irrespective of the unlikely occurrence of a residential penetration, in an abundance of caution, you should spend some time examining your home as though you were an attacker who wanted to gain entry. Where are the weak points to your home? If you are like most people, it will be in the side yard or side door accessing the garage. Do you have adequate exterior lighting? Do you

have window coverings for the hours of darkness, solid core doors with dead bolt locks, and so on?

The next stage is to focus on the frontage to your home. Examine it under a critical eye for where and how a person could approach and stage for an attack with as little compromise as possible.

Where are these locations in relation to your front door and where you habitually park your vehicle? What are the avenues and angles of attack? What if any obstacles are present, if any, not only for an attacker, but also to you in your efforts to evade an attacker? Given that the vast majority of targeted attacks stem from a lone gunman, run through mental drills of such an attack occurring as you are departing and arriving. Determine now what your response would be if attacked while in the process of entering your car, with the door still open and the engine not running.

An important aspect of any targeted attack that intends to be successful is some form of planning. The vast majority of individuals known to have perpetrated such violence have spent time conducting surveillance and reconnaissance (S&R).

Hence, you must identify where hostile surveillance would likely set up in order to watch your home. Fortunately, unlike the type of S&R law enforcement/ military would conduct, you are most likely facing one, perhaps two individuals with no training.

Keep this in mind as you identify areas in and around your house that provide ample views of your front door and garage areas. These are the likely spots for a hostile to set up and watch and are referred to as Hostile Surveillance Points, or HSPs. These are areas that you need to scan whenever departing or arriving into the immediate area of your residence.

Couple this with your overall familiarity of your own neighborhoods, and you

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will be far more likely to detect a hostile presence at an earlier stage in the buildup to an attack.

CONCLUSION You are the only person who truly knows your weak points. There will always be some attacks that you can do little if anything to prevent. In some cases, Murphy’s Law could come into effect, putting you in the wrong place at the wrong time. However, if you take some time now to come to an understanding of your vulnerabilities, make efforts to harden yourself to an attack, and drill how you would respond, then just as when on the job, you will have vastly increased the chances of your survival, and perhaps that of your family.

Following the assassination of Det. Williams, Daryl Gates, then Chief of the Los Angeles Police Department,

made the following statement which perfectly sums up this article: “When you go home and leave the job, always think about security. That is not the way to enjoy life, but we have to be aware that these tragedies can happen.

Be aware. Don’t be paranoid, but be aware.” While the reality is you will likely never be attacked, if you could look into the future and know that you were going to be attacked at home, would you not do everything possible to prepare? You already possess the necessary skills; you just need to employ them for your own benefit.

•

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Glenn McGovern is a Senior Investigator with the Santa Clara County District Attorney’s Office— Bureau of Investigation. He has over two decades of law enforcement experience, having worked in a variety

of positions including SWAT and JTTF. A recognized subject matter expert in the field of targeted violence upon public officials, his work has been cited by the CBS Evening News, the Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, and NPR. He is the author of the recently released Countering the Assassin: Personal Vulnerability, Threat Recognition and Target Hardening (2014), as well as Protective Operations (2011) and Targeted Violence (2010).

SOURCES Glenn McGovern, “Targeted Violence: A Statistical and Tactical Analysis of Assassinations, Contract Killings and Kidnappings,” CRC Press, April 2010.

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Case Study:

PAX AMER--IRAN

18 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

by Avi Melamed

At the peak of its power and influence, the United States’ foreign policy was described as Pax Americana. That description was inspired by the term Pax Romana— ”The Roman Peace”—which describes the “Golden Era” of the Great Roman Empire (between 27 BC and 180 AD) that was characterized by prosperity and stability throughout the Empire.

O

n June 4, 2009, the President of the United States, Barack Obama, delivered a speech at the University of Cairo entitled “A NEW BEGINNING”, in which he called for the opening of a new page in the relationship of the West with the Muslim world.

On June 4, 2009, the President of the United States, Barack Obama, delivered a speech at the University of Cairo entitled “A NEW BEGINNING”, in which he called for the opening of a new page in the relationship of the West with the Muslim world. Obama’s speech created expectations for a substantive change

that would have a positive impact on the Middle East.

Six years later, the prevalent tone among the Arab world is one of disappointment, growing criticism, and anger regarding the policies of President Obama. In their eyes, Obama’s policies appear to be hesitant, inconsistent,

President Barack Obama speaks at Cairo University in Cairo, Thursday, June 4, 2009. In his speech, President Obama called for a 'new beginning between the United States and Muslims', declaring that 'this cycle of suspicion and discord must end'. Photo by: Chuck Kennedy The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 19

directionless, and clumsy, stemming from a total lack of understanding regarding the processes and trends taking place in the Middle East, as well as the power bases involved.

However, there are those in the Arab world who think that the policy of the United States in the Middle East in the second decade of the 21st century reflects not confusion, bewilderment, or a lack of direction—but instead reflects a calculated, strategic change of direction of the United States government, the essence of which is extending a hand in friendship to the Iranian regime while turning its back on the Sunni Arab world.

To put it simply: Arabs are convinced that the current United States administration is throwing the Arab world under the bus.

Air raid on missiles and weapons stores in Mount Let east of Sana’a, Yemen on May 11, 2015.

Photo by: Ibrahem Qasim

A devastated car south of Sana’a. Photo by: Ibrahem Qasim

20 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

U.S. Central Command Commander, Army Gen. Lloyd J. Austin III, addresses troops stationed here Sept. 17 with Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel before President Obama. President Obama and Gen. Austin discussed several topics during a brief held at USCENTCOM headquarters including a counterterrorism strategy against Islamic State of Iraq in the Levant and Syria. Photo by: Sgt. Fredrick J. Coleman

In the light of the events now occurring in the Arab world, it is useful to look into how the Arab world regards US Policy.

SUNNI ARAB WORLD’S WORST NIGHTMARE The shocked Sunni Arab world watches as their worst nightmare materializes right in front of their eyes. Four Arab states—

Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen— are today under direct and indirect growing Iranian influence. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards as well as Iranian backed Shiite Militias—Afghan Shiite Militias, Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shiite Militias—are fighting in Iraq and Syria.

In Yemen, the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi tribe occupy northern and central

Yemen—including its capital, Sana’a.

The Sunni world sees its historic rival—the Shiite and Iranian Mullah Regime—gaining momentum. And all of this seems to be accompanied by the silent blessing of the USA. Arab analysts are convinced that the Iranian momentum is taking place not only with the United States of America’s silent

See related stories on page 22 & 26

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 21

THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION MOVES TOWARDS IRAN: 2009–2015

By The Counter Terrorist Magazine Editorial staff

2009: Private messages from Obama to Ali Khamenei requesting a dialogue—asking nothing from Tehran in exchange.

2009: William Burns, Undersecretary for Political affairs meets with Iran’s Chief Nuclear negotiator and spells out US desire for dialogue.

2009: Revolt erupts in Tehran over fixed election results but despite widespread protest and pleas for international assistance, rebellion is quelled by the Mullahs. US does nothing to help the regime change.

2010/2011: Congress passes sanctions on Iran and tightens these in 2011. Obama sends renewed Nowruz messages to Tehran pleading for dialogue. Back channel diplomacy mentioned even in the NY Times.

2010: Ahmadinejad speaks at the UN and secret meetings are held between US and Iran officials where Obama’s stated goal of handling the nuclear issue diplomatically is emphasized.

2011: Badr Organization commander Hadi al-Ameri—who was welcomed in the Oval Office by Obama in 2011, known for favoring power drills to murder his victim, as many accuse the administration of wanton neglect in Iraq of Shia abuses towards Sunnis. Iran has a free hand.

2012: Obama declares that Iran’s Syrian Proxy Bashir Al Assad would cross a red line if he used chemical weapons against his own people.

President does nothing when 1400 are slaughtered. Iran notices and so does the Sunni Arab World.

2013: Obama has a conversation with Rouhani, an oft-described moderate in the Liberal press; meanwhile his record worse than his predecessors persecuting Christians, Homosexuals and others.

2014: Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt take unprecedented tilt towards Israel in conflict with Hamas. Obama and Kerry decry Israel’s actions and demand Israel stop, while halting shipments of F-16 parts. Further US tilt towards Tehran detected in Arab world.

2015: Netanyahu comes to Washington to warn against a bad deal, a very bad deal with Iran. Staunch US Ally is vilified by the administration. Obama announces deal is reached in April of 2015— a framework which Iran promptly and publicly denies humiliating the President.

22 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

Baseeji motorbike set on fire by protesters in Tehran.

Phot by: Hamed Saber

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 23

consent; they believe it is actually a joint US–Iran strategy aimed at making Iran the dominant superpower in the Middle East over the Arab Sunni world.

The common arguments Arab analysts make to explain the US’s dramatic shift towards Iran are: • US policy reflects the American view that the disintegrating Arab societies are a limping horse. It’s time to choose a new one—Iran.

• The US administration believes that Iran can generate and secure stability in the troubled Middle East, and can be useful in successfully fighting Militant Islamic groups like ISIS, al-Qaeda, and other Sunni Militant groups.

• The US–Iranian alliance is part of an orchestrated deal aimed to ensure the interest of four partners—the US, Iran, Turkey and Israel—at the

expense of the crumbling Arab states and societies.

• The US administration came to terms with the idea of a nuclear Iran and subject to that view embraces a policy of containment—and they are not willing to confront Iran.

• Iran’s markets are desirable targets for US and Western companies. Signing a deal with Iran and lifting the sanctions will open the Iranian market for US companies to make big money.

And, finally, there is another argument: Arabs are more and more convinced that it is a cynical US policy aimed not to stabilize the Middle East, but rather to do just the opposite. It is a policy whose goal is the deliberate destruction of the Arab world by encouraging more instability in the Arab societies. According to this line of thinking, the US will have the legitimacy to strengthen its relations

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MIDDLE EAST OUT OF CONTROL AS US TILTS TOWARDS IRAN GOING NUCLEAR

By The Counter Terrorist Magazine Editorial staff

April 2: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif immediately accuses the U.S. of spinning the Framework announcement contradicting Mr. Obama’s key claims regarding the terms of the deal.

April 12: In Sweden it is reported that the Saudis have begun unprecedented levels of Defense spending.

April 13: Putin says he will deliver the S-300 air-defense system to Tehran.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei later states that the U.S. can’t do anything militarily against Iran.

April 14: Iran partners with China and Russia to build further reactors April 17: Iran dispatches an armed convoy of ships, whose purpose it is to resupply pro-Iranian Houthi rebels in Yemen in contravention of a U.N. arms embargo.

April 20: Jason Rezaian, the American-born Washington Post reporter imprisoned in Iran since July, is charged with espionage, “collaborating with hostile governments” and “propaganda against the establishment.”

April 20: The British government claims “is aware of an active Iranian nuclear procurement network” associated with two Iranian companies that are under international sanctions.

April 22: Saudi Arabia ignores Obama administrations pleas and starts bombing in Yemen to stop Iranian proxies.

April 29: Former Saudi Intelligence Minister Turki al Faisal tells a conference in Seoul that the kingdom will match Iran’s nuclear capabilities with its own. “Whatever the Iranians have, we will have, too.” The prince also accuses Mr. Obama of going “behind the backs of the traditional allies to strike the deal.”

May 8: Reuters reports that inspectors have discovered traces of sarin gas at an undeclared military research site near Damascus. Several years after the Red Line debacle, the problem of Syrian Chemical weapons remains unsolved.

May 11: Saudi Arabia’s King Salman withdraws from the Arab summit meeting with Mr. Obama.

May 17: The Sunday Times reports that “Saudi Arabia has taken the ‘strategic decision’ to acquire ‘off-the-shelf’ atomic weapons from Pakistan.”

June 4: with end of month deadline looming New York Times, reports that Tehran’s stockpile of nuclear fuel increased 20% over the months of negotiations.

June 23: Alan J. Kuperman, coordinator of the Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Project blows the Administration’s claims that the deal prevents Iran getting a bomb. It appears from the Kuperman article that it may be down to a 30 day breakout period—or less.

Devastating result of the raids coalition led by Saudi Arabia— south of Sana’a. Photo Ibrahem Qasim 26 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

Counter The

Asia Pacific Edition The Counter Terrorist Magazine Asia Pacific Edition is finally available for the Asia Pacific region counter-terrorism and homeland security practitioners. The Asia Pacific Edition not only gives the readers a worldwide counter-terrorism perspective but also in-depth information about counter terrorism activities in Asia. The Asia Pacific Edition provides an excellent platform for counter-terrorism and homeland solutions providers to access and penetrate the Asia Pacific market.

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The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 27

with Iran under the excuse of “fighting together against militant Islamic factors who generate instability.”

RAMIFICATIONS OF THE PERCEIVED SHIFT IN US POLICY

Tariq Humeid, an Arab senior journalist, wrote: “…

Obama is leading the Middle East to a catastrophe.”1

• The struggle between the axes of the Sunni states and the Iranian Mullah Regime is creating a Sunni–Shiite “mutual stranglehold” and is now manifested by endless rounds of violent clashes between Sunnis and Shiites in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

• Saudi Arabia signals it will not sit by quietly and watch Iran arm itself with nuclear weapons. The Middle East is on the verge of a nuclear arms race.

• Sunni Militant Islamist groups (ISIS, al-Qaeda, etc.) who loathe the Shiites will get stronger because they will recruit more and more Sunnis to confront the Iranian–Shiite occupation of the Sunni Arab states.

• Israel is also watching the Iranian momentum with growing concern.

Thousands of Iran-backed Shiite militants, including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces, are fighting against Syrian rebels on the

28 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

Syrian side of the Golan Heights, a few miles away from the Israeli side.

The Iranian regime does not conceal its desire to generate a new arena of confrontation against Israel in the Golan Heights. This would complete the construction of a noose around Israel’s neck by adding hundreds of thousands of Iranian rockets and missiles already deployed in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, aimed at Israel.

It is hard to believe that any Israeli government will sit quietly and watch that scenario evolve.

Disturbingly, the American policy today may very well result in increasing instability, encompassed by a terrifying increase of bloodshed as well as a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

PUZZLING US POLICY Does the United States fully calculate the ramifications of its policy? Is it possible that the United States administration is completely oblivious to the ramifications that actually are taking already place? Many analysts find the United States policy puzzling.

One cannot overlook the irony: The Mullah Regime, which despises every single value that democracy stands

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for, that openly despises the USA and describes it as “The Big Satan,” marks its biggest achievements during the tenures of two US Democratic presidents: Carter and Obama.

Tariq Humeid, an Arab senior journalist, wrote: “…Obama is leading the Middle East to a catastrophe.”1 Many share his outlook.

ENDNOTES

of foreseeing the evolution of events in the Middle East and their impact on at a local and regional level. His new book Inside the Middle East: Making Sense of the Most Dangerous and Complicated Region on Earth will be published in North America in October 2015. Mr. Melamed will conduct a book tour in the USA through 2015–2016.

Tariq Humeid, “America and the Gulf Area—who secures who?” Al-Sharq AlAwsat, March 7 2015.

1

TWO CONCLUSIONS FOR US FOREIGN POLICY First, the gloomy scenarios portrayed here are definitely not fantasy, made in the imaginations of Arab commentators. These are real events happening. They should be considered and understood with the utmost seriousness and concern.

Second, six years after his speech in Cairo, President Obama can say that he did indeed open a new page in the history of relations between the USA and the Muslim and Arab world; as of today, the image of the United States in the Middle East has hit rock bottom, with an unprecedented level of Arab anger toward the USA because of Obama’s policy.

Politeness is a major virtue in Arab culture, yet the rhetoric used by Arabs to express their anger is shockingly impolite.

In 2015 it seems like the United States Middle East foreign policy should be described as Pax Amer-Iran. As of now, the results of Pax Amer-Iran look nothing like the “Golden Era” of the Pax Romana.

“Once you say you're going to settle for second, that's what happens to you in life.” - JFK

•

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Avi Melamed is the Fellow of Intelligence and Middle East Affairs for the Eisenhower Institute of Gettysburg College, with offices in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C. He is a former Israeli Intelligence Official and Senior Official on Arab Affairs.

Mr. Melamed has a long, proven record

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The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 29

PROTECTING OUR VITAL SUPPLY CHAIN: EXERCISES FOR MARITIME SECURITY

Petty Officer 3rd Class Adam Edwards, a U.S. Coast Guardsman with the Maritime Security Detachment at Joint Task Force Guantanamo, practices swimming strokes during the first phase of water survival training at U.S. Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, June 5. Photo by: Spc. Amber L. Bohlman 30 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

by Simon Grantham

The recent announcement that China is looking to invest US$40bn on the development of a New Silk Route1, the last seven years spent by the Panamanian government expanding the Panama Canal2 and Egypt’s New Suez Canal3 are events that serve to underscore the importance of increasing the maritime sector’s capacity to deliver today’s just-enough, just-in-time supply chain and meet widely predicted future growth.

B

ut governments and the captains of industry are not the only ones to be focused on supply lines.

An essay written by a so-called Islamic State (IS) ideologue surfaced recently suggesting that because IS now had a presence in Libya, pandemonium could

be brought by sea to southern Europe with the closure of the shipping lanes through “the targeting of Crusader ships and tankers.”1 The essay also spoke of exploiting the chaos created by the ongoing Libyan migrant crisis. Perhaps it’s just wishful jihadist thinking, but

other ideas thrown out there for grassroots jihadists to develop have come to fruition with terrible consequences; for example, attack plots aired in the late Anwar Awlaki’s magazine Inspire have indeed been the inspiration behind numerous terrorist attacks, from

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 31

Given the number of battle-hardened jihadists returning home from their various theatres of conflict around the world, there is a real possibility that these ideas could gain traction.

politicians being stabbed2 to the pressure cooker bombs of the Boston Marathon3 and, according to Russia’s intelligence machinery, forest fires in southern France.4 Given the number of battlehardened jihadists returning home from their various theatres of conflict around the world, there is a real possibility that these ideas could gain traction.

To put some context to the breadth of this problem, a recent UN Security Council report assessed that the number of foreign terrorist fighters could be as high as 30,000, with most travelling to join IS.5 These individuals present some real concerns. Up-skilling is one.

For example, a recent Stratfor paper highlighted IS fighters’ burgeoning experience in the use of anti-tank guided missiles—a stand-off capability they frequently demonstrate against all manner of targets.6 Access to munitions is another concern. This is so significant because a simple analysis of failed terrorist plots suggests many of those failures resulted from faults with improvised munitions. But now this spoiler might not play out so often because jihadist terrorists have access to a plentiful supply of military weapons; consider who has control of Qaddafi’s looted stockpiles7 or how much American hardware supplied to the Iraqi military is now in the hands of IS fighters.8 Of course, of those foreign fighters who do return to their respective homelands, not all will do so intent on creating harm.

A paper published by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) identified that some will be horrified by what they have lived through and want no more to do with it, and others may even become a force for good—dissuading others by actively arguing against the

32 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

radicalisation narrative—but still others will undoubtedly want to continue their misguided fight through acts of terrorism.9 Viewed simplistically, these two aspects of jihadist conflict could be seen as manifestations of the components of threat—that is, the returning fighters an example of intent, while access to munitions represents capability. There is therefore a rudimentary case to keep jihadists and weapons apart; a baton that needs to be picked up by all those working at international borders.

For all its imperfections, aviation security has developed to its current very high standard because of persistent terrorist targeting dating back to the Dawson’s Field hijackings of 1970. This has greatly reduced the attractiveness of the aviation sector as a weapons smuggling route. For a number of reasons, leaving aside a small number of very significant plots, to date the maritime sector has not been similarly targeted. Rather, history is littered with examples from a miscellany of terrorist groups using the sea to move materiel, such as the large vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (LVBIED) that devastated London’s Docklands in 1996. Assembled in the borders of Northern Ireland, the LVBIED was delivered to the UK mainland via the Stranraer ferry.10 Another example is the 50 tons of Hezbollah munitions found aboard the freighter Karine A in 2002.11 State actors have also used the maritime sector to move munitions in highly questionable circumstances. For example, the MV Baltic Sky interdicted

by Greek forces in 2003 was found to be carrying 680 tons of ammonium nitratebased explosive and 8,000 detonators

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apparently destined for Sudan;12 in 2010, Nigerian officials at a port in Lagos found 13 shipping containers holding 240 tons of ammunition from Iran concealed among building materials;13 while earlier this year authorities in the Colombian port of Cartagena discovered 100 tons of gunpowder, a large number

of detonators, and around 3,000 cannon shells documented as grain on a cargo ship bound for Cuba.14 Thoughts understandably turn to mitigating the risk with enhanced security measures, but in the highly competitive maritime sector, the relative infrequency of such incidents will mean

34 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

that very close scrutiny is applied to bids for expenditure on security. However, likelihood is widely viewed as only one-half of the risk equation. The other, impact, in terms of a terrorist attack is invariably high (to both business and society) thus raising the overall level of risk. So what might be an appropriate

Sailors standby as an E-2C Hawkeye attached to the “Bear Aces� of Carrier Airborne Early Warning Squadron 124 lands on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush. George H.W. Bush is conducting training operations in the Atlantic Ocean.

Photo by: Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Joshua Card

means of ensuring our supply chains are sufficiently robust?

One really cost effective measure is exercising.

In the wake of the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code was introduced. Among other things, it

requires compliant ports to develop security plans and exercise them on an annual basis. But exercising security plans in seaports is not just about gaining an ISPS compliance check; properly constructed exercises can provide a range of business benefits: validating plans, developing personnel, embedding

policies and procedures, and building relationships. They can expose gaps in existing plans and address them before they can cause harm. Crucially, exercises give personnel the opportunity to gain a really sound understand of their roles in times of crisis. The importance of exercises is well understood by militaries

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 35

A U.S. Marine with the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit’s Maritime Raid Force provides security during maritime interoperability training off the coast of Santa Barbara, Calif., Jan. 16, 2015. MIT prepares the 15th MEU’s MRF for their upcoming deployment by enhancing their combat skills and teaching them techniques for boarding vessels. Photo by: Sgt. Jamean Berry

around the world; the famed military strategist von Clausewitz described them as the only oil capable of diminishing the frictions resulting from the fog of war.15 In business terms, exercises make sense because such preparedness will greatly assist businesses with continued delivery of their products and services in circumstances that could otherwise be ruinous.

Exercises don’t need to be huge, expensive affairs. Valuable learning can be taken from a well-constructed tabletop, as the International Maritime Organization’s recently-run series of exercises in West Africa shows.16 There are some key considerations to constructing a good exercise, and the following text will be expanded on in a series of blogs over the next few weeks.

36 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

DEVELOPING OBJECTIVES: A CONSEQUENCE-BASED APPROACH It may sound obvious, but committing time and effort to be really clear about what you want the exercise to deliver is absolutely key. There is a school of thought that says it is better at this level to think about the consequences you may

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The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 37

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be faced with rather than the specifics of the type of attack.17 The logic is that wider business benefits will flow from taking such an approach; for example, media handling and managing competing multi-agency needs are highly relevant to a range of scenarios that are much more likely to be encountered than a terrorist attack.

MULTI-AGENCY OBJECTIVES Seaports are occupied by so many organisations, all with their own needs and priorities. Make sure partners are included in the objective setting; think broadly about who it’s sensible to include.

Generally speaking, if someone would have a locus in resolving an incident in the real world, their views need to be heard during the exercise. When dealing with a real-life incident that mirrored a then recently-run exercise, one operations director asked why a particular decision was taking so long when during the exercise the course of action had been determined in a matter of minutes, “Ah,” came the reply, “but now the lawyers are saying…” There exists a myriad of ways to involve lawyers and other people who may not be considered necessary as full exercise players to ensure they contribute and thus add to the real world validity of the learning.

The last thing you want is someone saying “In the real world I’d have done things differently.” If true, that would undermine any associated learning. So getting players’ buy-in is vital. To do that, the theme needs to be relevant and realistic: Make sure it reflects current terrorist modus operandi and is appropriate to your port. The ISPS Code and the European Handbook of

Sergeant Branden Yingling loads the primer into a J007 claymore mine during a demolition range in Djibouti, Feb. 21, 2015. A contingent of MEU Marines was ashore in Djibouti conducting sustainment training in order to maintain proficiency while deployed.

Photo by: Lance Cpl. Austin A. Lewis

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 39

Maritime Security Exercise and Drills “Exercitium” list a number of scenarios, together with some really sound broader advice.18 Terrorists crave success and so they will resort to tried and tested methods of attack, but with so many active jihadist conflicts—Afghanistan, the Caucuses, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, Yemen etc.—it’s also critical to keep abreast of developing trends. Cyberspace has grown beyond all recognition since the ISPS Code was written. Now the Internet-of-things and the convergent threat present a rapidly increasing vulnerability that has already exploited by organised crime groups.19 Drones are another relatively new phenomenon. Already used by jihadists on the battlefield as a low-

cost Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) asset20, their use by coalition partners in the targeting of terrorist leaders will have highlighted the potential drones offer through weaponization.

PRE-EXERCISE PREPARATION Exercises are challenging events for key individuals. Leaders don’t want to look foolish in front of their subordinates, and team players want to be able to demonstrate a masterful knowledge of their own discipline to their peers and bosses. So it’s really worth making sure people have the opportunity to prepare themselves accordingly. For a tabletop exercise, this might mean ensuring

Marines from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit’s Maritime Raid Force conduct a casualty evacuation drill in Djibouti, Feb. 3, 2015.

Photo by: U.S. Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Dani A. Zunun

40 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

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arose because of the circumstances of the exercise. This normally requires recursive dialogue between relevant exercise participants, planners, and those involved in managing the learning.

IMPLEMENTATION The hardy perennial of exercising!

Once the lessons have been signed off as valid and the wording agreed, they need to be logged, risk assessed, assigned an owner, and reviewed by senior management until they have been absorbed into practice. Testing them then needs to be included as a future exercise objective.

Sailors assigned to the amphibious dock landing ship USS Harpers Ferry navigate a rigidhull inflatable boat during visit, board, search, and seizure training.

Photo by: Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Mark El-Raye everyone knows the latest policies and procedures (and brings supporting documents to the event). For the live play, it might mean ensuring that participants have been involved in recent multi-disciplinary tabletop exercises. The preparation shouldn’t generally extend to players knowing the scenario—that will often undermine the validity of any learning—although there might be a benefit in some key individuals being aware of the broader storyline so that they can be approached to help put things back on track if the unexpected happens.

People who are prepared are much more likely to enjoy the experience, and that will make for a far more valuable exercise.

LESSONS CAPTURE Working out how you will identify and capture the lessons is key. Observers or umpires who are competent, current, and most of all credible can be of particular

value where the learning objectives are strategic in nature. Where objectives are more operationally focused, self-reporting by the players themselves—for example, through structured debriefing—can be a cost-effective approach depending on the pace of the exercise and organisational culture. The use of third-party subject matter experts has a real value here: It is easier for an outsider to tell truth to power. An outsider has no loyalty to internal politics, will not be constrained by internal thinking, and will very likely bring valuable new ideas.

VALIDATING THE LEARNING The process of articulating the learning clearly requires very precise language, but even more fundamental is the requirement to validate the issue in question. There’s no point in developing a solution to an artificiality that only

42 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

CLOSING THOUGHTS The potential for terrorists to attack sea lines of communication has been voiced in Islamist terrorist circles. And the volume of up-skilled foreign fighters potentially returning to their homelands together with the wide availability of reliable military munitions suggest a measured improvement in security posture at seaports is required. Exercising existing plans is a really good place to start. As Sun Tzu said: “Without constant practice, the officers will be nervous and undecided when mustering for battle: without constant practice the general will be wavering and irresolute when the crisis is at hand.”

•

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Simon Grantham MPhil, MLitt, now heads Praeparare Ltd, having worked in a wide variety of counter terrorism roles over the last two decades, including four years at the UK’s Office for Security and Counter Terrorism, where he developed and delivered national-level, live play counter terrorism exercises.

ENDNOTES Brenda Goh, “China Pays Big to Expand its Clout Along the New Silk Road,” Brenda Goh, Chongqing, China: Reuters, November 10, 2014.

2 Panama Canal Expansion, www. micanaldepanama.com.

3 New Suez Canal: The Project, www. suezcanal.gov.eg.

4 Charlie Winter, “Libya: The Strategic Gateway for the Islamic State,” Charlie Winter, Quilliam Foundation, February 2015.

5 Vikram Dodd, “Stephen Timms Attacker Guilty of Attempted Murder,” Vikram Dodd, The Guardian, November 2, 2010.

6 Peter Bergen and David Sterman, “The Man who Inspired the Boston Bombings, Peter Bergen and David Sterman; CNN, April 11, 2014.

7 Alexander Bortnikov, “Terrorists Lit European Forest Fires, Eyes on WMD – FSB Chief,” Alexander Bortnikov, Russia Today, October 3, 2012.

8 S/2015/338, United Nations Security Council, May 14, 2015.

9 Scott Stewart, “Anti-Tank Guided Missiles Pose a Serious Threat,” Scott Stewart; Stratfor, April 30, 2015.

10 Mauro Teodori, “Libyan Weapons Arming Regional Conflicts,” Mauro Teodori; Inter Press Service News Agency, September 2, 2012.

11 Aymenn J. Al-Tamimi, “2,300 Humvees in Mosul Alone: Iraq Reveals Number of US Arms Falling into ISIS Hands, Aymenn J Al-Tamimi,” Russia Today, June 1, 2015.

12 Jonathan Githens-Mazer, “The Four Types of Returning Jihadi,” Jonathan Githens-Mazer, Royal United Services Institute,; July 8, 2014.

1

Toby Harnden, Bandit Country: The IRA and South Armagh, Toby Harnden, (London: Hodder and Stoughton, 1999).

London;Hodder and Stoughton 14 James Bennet, “Seized Arms Would Have Vastly Extended Arafat Arsenal,” James Bennet; New York Times, January 12, 2002.

15 Christopher Martin, “The Historical Use of Maritime Improvised Explosive Devices,” Christopher Martin, Hull University Centre for Security Studies, August 1, 2010.

16 Alex Potter, “The Distribution of Iranian Ammunition in Africa,”Alex Potter; Conflict Armament Research, December 2012.

17 “Colombia Detains Cuba-Bound Chinese Ship Carrying Arms,” BBC, March 4, 2015.

13

Carl von Clausewitz, On War, Carl von Clausewitz Project Gutenberg EBook of On War, www.gutenberg.org.

19 “Strengthening Maritime Security in West and Central Africa,” International Maritime Organization.

20 Jennifer Cole and Laurence Marzell, “Combined Effect: A New Approach to Resilience,” Jennifer Cole and Laurence Marzell, Royal United Services Institute and Serco.

21 Exercitium, The New European Handbook for Maritime Security Exercises and Drills, Port of Antwerp, 2012.

22 Tom Bateman, “Police Warning After Drug Traffickers’ Cyber-Attack,” Tom Bateman, BBC, October 16, 2013.

23 “US Shoots Down ISIS-Operated Drone for the First Time,” Russia Today, March 21, 2015.

18

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BOOK REVIEW

Boko Haram: Nigeria’s Islamist Insurgency By: Virginia Comolli

Reviewed by: the Counter Terrorist Magazine’s Editorial staff

B

OKO HARAM – Nigeria’s Islamist Insurgency by Virginia Comolli, published by Hurst and Company, London (2015) 239 pp.

Boko Haram came to the International Community’s attention for a spate of particularly nasty acts of terrorism which included the April 2014 cowardly kidnapping of 300 school girls which briefly become a Hollywood cause celebre’ (a crowd not fond of complaining about Islamic violence—there has never been a protest in Hollywood about Assad, nor about ISIS for example).

Virginia Comolli’s book does a really good job of examining the context of this particularly vile African Jihadist group, creating a historical analysis of how Islam came to control the North; the tribal nature of Nigerian society and many other factors, not least incompetent Government response, gave rise to this latest of Islamic monsters. However, there is always the sense about BOKO HARAM, (like the French say, “ the more things change the more they remain the same”,) that they are nothing more than an African version of all the Islamist terror groups—Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, Jabat Al Nusra, ISIS—all powered

by the same agenda of Islamic World Conquest and the return to Sharia law, all with the same despicable modus operandi of terrorizing populations to achieve their ends. With 3000 deaths to Boko Haram’s credit from 2009 to 2013 and up to 2014 they had reached 6500 with over 3200 killed from January to July of 2014 (and

44 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

a lot more since) they are another factor in our abdication of the world to Islamist Terror. More than 3.3 million people have been displaced by these cowards. In the sense that they are now loyal to ISIS’ Khalifa and are stirring it up not only in Nigeria but in Chad, Cameroon and Niger, they do need to be studied but there is nothing new here to understand.

Like the Muslim Brotherhood, Boko Haram has its father figures like Qutb or other would-be rebuilders of the period of Muslim glory that has long since passed from the Earth. There is Usman Dan Fodio, who in 1804 managed to spread Islam throughout the North of Nigeria by calling for war against the infidel, not a surprising call to action. Boko Haram is at least clear as to why they are doing this than many of the interpreters of Islamic Radicalism who spout nonsense about these groups not being Islamic. And yes, they like to throw in some history. Here is their spokesman: “The reasons for our attacks are clear.

The Nigerian Government is a kuffar system. We are the Jaam’atu Ahlisunnah Lidda’awati Wal-Jihad are Muslims…

Striving to bring back the lost glory of Uhtman Dan Fodio.”

And despite the many subtleties of culture in Northern Nigeria the author concurs that “ Islamizing Nigeria, in other words ensuring that it becomes a fully Islamic State governed by sharia law is what appears to be Boko Haram’s ultimate goal.” That’s her interpretation but their own spokesman says “we have our sights set on (bringing sharia to) the world, not just Nigeria.”

If never ceases to amaze how each scenario of terror has its own version of the State Department’s view of ISIS that jobs would make this force go away. In February of 2013, the former President of the US, Bill Clinton pointed his fingers at alleged economic drivers of the violence in his own version of use–a-job-fair-toconquer-violent-extremists’. “You have to somehow bring economic opportunity to the people who don’t have it. You have all these political problems—and now violence problems—that appear to

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be rooted in religious differences and all the rhetoric of the Boko Harams and others. But the truth is the poverty rate in the North is three times what it is in Lagos.” It may indeed poverty may be greater in the North but what does that have to do with a group that is calling for the Islamization of the world, and whose very name means Western Culture is “Haram”—forbidden.

With a size of territory the size of Belgium, under the leadership of a pot smoking, Zarkawi-style psychopath named Shekau, the group recently declared its allegiance to ISIS. One of the CNN commentators said: “Boko Haram joining the ISIS fold makes sense to both groups,” he said from Abuja, Nigeria. “Boko Haram will get legitimacy, which will help its recruiting, funding and logistics as it expands into (French-speaking) West Africa. It will also get guidance from ISIS in media

warfare and propaganda. Previously Boko Haram was a sort of outcast in the global Jihadi community. Now it is perhaps ISIS’s biggest affiliate.” Meanwhile, the French are active trying to raise a force to combat these savages. Merkel talks a good game about doing something. What are we doing? Trying to open job fairs in the Middle East and busy propagating propaganda that states that these groups are not Islamic. With that being our position, count on a lot more books about ISIS affiliated Jihadi groups.

•

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 45

Orthodox Christian cross in the gym of school #1 in Beslan, Russia. Photo by: Leon

WHAT CAN I DO

By Shelley Klingerman

Getting civilians involved in homeland security is essential.

This is one woman’s story of what is possible when a citizen decides to make a difference.

T

en years ago, I was working a full-time corporate communications job, opening a women’s boutique (to fulfill my entrepreneurial spirit), and raising two kids. In July 2007, I was asked to help a local military and law enforcement training organization with some marketing and PR for a

46 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

conference they were hosting locally covering new tactical techniques, first responder best practices, and a keynote speech about the Beslan, Russia, school siege with lessons learned.

Of course coming from a corporate world, I wasn’t their target audience for the conference. It was for military,

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 47

Victims from Beslan school siege. Photo by: Aaron bird

A mother mourns the death of her daughter at the new Beslan cemetery where most of the victims of the Beslan school siege incident are buried. Photo by: Aaron Bird 48 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

law-enforcement and first responders.

The first day was full of surveillance techniques, special response drills, and rescue tactics. I thought they were very cool and interesting—however, not relevant to me. I was certainly grateful that those in attendance were taking time to learn these innovative ways to identify and respond to security threats and rescue civilians; it’s not natural what these individuals commit to do in order to save someone else’s life.

The second day of the conference was a complete breakdown and review of the 2004 Beslan, Russia, school siege.

Again, I was not the intended audience, therefore I was not used to seeing the raw horror and savageness that these men and women in our military and law enforcement and among our first responders deal with on a regular basis.

I was nothing short of mortified to get my first glimpse of these terrorists, or more appropriately, savages.

Remember, this was close to a decade ago, so the horrors of ISIS had not become mainstream. After that Beslan keynote, I can honestly say my life changed. I didn’t sleep for two weeks, literally. There wasn’t a single night when I went to bed that I didn’t put myself in the scenario of those Beslan School #1 parents with their kids being held hostage under unthinkable conditions. I kept envisioning my kids, who at the time were in kindergarten and preschool, in that situation WITHOUT me, like many, many of those kids were. And even though at that time there were really no direct threats against our schools, it made me realize how vulnerable our schools really were. I really had no idea how, I, a single person, could effect the change that needed to take place at our schools on a national and international level.

Beslan school #1 building. Photo by: Leon After two weeks, I was overwhelmed, mentally exhausted, and scared. Then I became very angry. And anger, when directed properly, is a very effective emotion; it’s empowering where fear is paralyzing. I DID NOT want a Beslan-style attack happening to MY kid’s school, so I made it personal; that was the only way I could get myself to take action. However, I thought that if I could get everyone to make it personal and engage in their kid’s schools; together we could fortify our schools, communities, and ultimately our country. I contacted the presenter who had given the Beslan workshop and told him I

wanted to DO something. He had spent the better of the previous year of his life trying to share what he had learned from his after-action report of the incident and was gracious enough to hear me out and help. I appreciated someone who dedicated his time to try to preventing such a horrible incident from happening in our homeland, and at this point we still had the gift of time to put preventative measures in to place and educate our school administrators, parents, and students on how ideally to prevent something like a Beslan from happening here.

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 49

At the time, I felt the best medium to get this message out was a documentary.

However, I needed help connecting with subject matter experts to help me frame this threat, identify our schools’ vulnerabilities, and provide ways for parents to play a part in protecting our schools and keeping our kids safe.

One call led to multiple introductions and those introductions led to more, until we had so much great content we could produce a documentary. The documentary not only provided ten

things parents could do immediately to help protect their kids, but also provided the experience of the experts we had the privilege of talking to, who explained the motivation of these terrorist groups, what they really want and why. It’s empowering and enlightening to understand the mindset of someone who carries out these acts. Not that you will ever agree with them, but you at least understand where their motivation comes from.

While working on this project of passion as a complete novice, my understanding

Vladimir Putin visits the Beslan hospital on September 4, 2004 after the Beslan school siege. Photo by: Press Service of the President of Russia

50 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

of the threat started going much deeper than our schools. I was exposed to so much more, including the challenges of a coherent and effective mass response when throwing a number of different law enforcement groups together that don’t have the same communication language (silent “go” command, hand signals, etc.). Many were things that I had honestly never even thought about, but I now had a huge respect for what our military, law enforcement, and first responders have to prepare for in advance of ever actually needing it or knowing what circumstances they might face. For example, the Beslan incident included a soldier having to make a split decision to shoot a child who was being used as a human shield, to kill and drop that terrorist, who was standing in a classroom doorway, and get a clean shot at another terrorist who was getting ready to pull a grenade pin in a room full of kids. How do you train your OODA (observe, orient, decide, act) loop for that? Yet our law enforcement and military must.

Over the years, I’ve had an opportunity to share at various conferences the information that I’ve learned in regards to how important it is that we as a society engage and begin to play a part in our

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Beslan school remains. Photo by: L Leon

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 51

The Tree of Grief—a monument to the Beslan hostage tragedy, in North Ossetia, by sculptors Alan Kornaev and Zaurbek Dzanagov. Photo by: Evstafiev

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national security, community security, school security, and family security. It is no longer an option to let someone else take care of it. We cannot allow others to make decisions for us, especially when they don’t align with what we think is in our best interest. However, on the flip side, I’ve had the privilege to work with individuals who dedicate their lives to trying to raise the flag and sound the bell that there are real threats and vulnerabilities that are looking us directly in the eye. We need to thank and support these individuals and groups who track, digest, and share this information on a regular basis because it can be so daunting, overwhelming, and scary. What they are trying to do is empower us to make decisions, set strategy, and arm ourselves with information. Knowledge is power.

We all have a part to play in making this world a better and civil place to live. There’s not one way to do this; it’s all about finding where your passion lies and engaging full force in making a difference. Perhaps that’s sharing a message you hear, educating a core group with fact-based information (a group as small as your circle of friends), or—yes, I’m going to say it—running for a political office. Like it or not, this is where one can effect change, not simply deal with effects of decisions. Let’s start with our schools.

We need to educate ourselves so that we can clearly and factually educate others, encouraging them to use their voices to influence and support our administrators in the implementation of the policies that we feel make our schools a safer place. Put yourself in the shoes of the administrators, of principals or teachers; many are also parents and carry the stress of protecting our kids in addition of worrying about their own kids.

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We need stop lowering the bar by making unfair assumptions that there’s no need to put forth the effort to ask for parents’ help or include them in decision making. Such assumptions cut the ones who could be our “patriot parents” out of the process when they could be the ones who get the this movement of change started. Going forward, if there’s something parents can do help keep our kids safe or if there is information that parents should know, don’t assume they don’t care. We need to give the small percentage that still are engaged an opportunity to make a decision either way. And then we need to let them help create a movement to start swinging the parent participation pendulum in the other direction. We do that by letting that smaller set of “patriot parents” be the example. Peer-to-peer/parent-toparent influence can be powerful. People like to be part of something, and at our core we want to do something that has a purpose and makes a difference.

How do we do it? Parents spend a lot of time sitting in bleachers having oneon-one conversations, and as we all know, two things spread like wildfire in that environment: good messages and

54 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

gossip. Let’s encourage that group of “patriot parents” to become messengers advocating a higher parent engagement bar. Some parents are simply trying to keep their head above water financially and honestly can’t make it to everything; others just don’t want to make their kids their priority, but convenience sells. If we focus our message exactly what we need parents to do and make it easy to find out, perhaps we can raise that bar.

As we go forward, let’s join together and figure out how we as a “community” can identify where we can make a difference. We will talk to various subject matter experts to drill down to get a true understanding of some our biggest challenges and become part of the solution. Your feedback and suggestions will become the topic of the next conversation. Please send thoughts to shelley@stilettoagency.com. www.terrorinamericanschools.com

•

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Indiana native Shelley Klingerman is the President of the Stiletto Agency, a marketing agency working within both the public and private sectors on matters relating to personal security. A

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former Marketing and Communications Executive with the Sony DADC, Mrs. Klingerman has managed events, marketing activities, and public relations, and consulted on special projects.

Additionally, she is the producer of the successful educational documentary Terror in American Schools, which discusses the reality of potential harm to students and outlines methods of preparation in order to maintain their safety in times of crisis.

Shelley Klingerman is also a proficient and motivating presenter who has spoken in front of both large and intimate audiences comporised of school officials as well as corporate executives, discussing the means to prepare, prevent, and protect.

She holds an Undergraduate Degree in marketing from Indiana State University, and her Masters of Business Administration from Indiana Wesleyan.

A proud wife and mother, Mrs. Klingerman enjoys remaining active within her community.

ABOUT THE STILETTO AGENCY Indiana native Shelley Klingerman is the President of the Stiletto Agency, a women-owned small business working

within both the public and private sectors on matters relating to personal security.

Once a Marketing and Communications Executive with the Sony Corporation, Mrs. Klingerman is a mother, a wife, and a local community supporter with an amazing Entrepreneurial Spirit and an appetite for success.

The Stiletto Agency was founded shortly after Klingerman ran the public relations for a state-wide Anti-Terrorism conference in 2006. It did not take her long to become personally attached to the message of the Keynote Presenter and International Safety Expert. His discussion that afternoon about the infamous school tragedy of Beslan, Russia, sent shivers down her spine, “not wanting other children to ever be in that horrific situation,” she decided to find a way to share this life-altering information with others.

Klingerman acknowledged the potential to support both schools and parents in taking the first step to protecting their children …recognizing the potential for crisis.

She produced a video, entitled: Terror in American Schools: Are Your Kids Safe?

The overwhelming success of this video has sparked the two to join forces with other safety experts, and former US Special Forces

56 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

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ANOTHER VIEW OF IRAN: WHAT CAN BE LEARNED FROM SOCIAL MEDIA

An Aerial View of Tehran, Iran.

Photo by: Hansueli Krapf 58 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

by Katie Pototsky

I

This article will attempt to shed light on the value of saying “yes” to a final nuclear agreement with Iran. Have no concerns about my leading with such a statement; I will not try and convince you that Iran’s leadership comprises all-around good and decent people.

am sure that most of us will agree that they are not. Rather, I will attempt to illustrate that to pass over a potential deal with Iran would be a missed moment in history and now, more than ever, the fruit is ripe for such a deal. The Iranian people, a diverse population of approximately 77 million, are ready to say “yes” to the United States. They are a people who want to stop struggling and to bolster their economy, and are

not nearly as primitive as we are often led to believe. I know that many of you might stop reading here, mumbling to yourselves that these are not reasons to risk our safety. I hear you. But know that I served as a shooting instructor in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). My brother served in Afghanistan. My grandfather graduated from the US Naval Academy.

And, that’s the short version of my deeply rooted military upbringing. I will

never ask you to sacrifice the sanctity of defense. Instead, I would like the opportunity to illuminate a little-known population who wants, in addition to the aspects detailed above, to be our “friends,” and who could prove to be a strategic ally in the turbulent atmosphere known as the Middle East, my home away from home. How do I know for sure? I don’t. However, after speaking with a multitude of average Iranians via

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 59

A photographer takes pictures as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry—flanked by National Security Council Senior Director for Iran, Iraq, Syria and the Gulf States Robert Malley, U.S. Energy Secretary Dr. Ernest Moniz, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, and State Department Chief of Staff Jon Finer—sits across from Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and other advisers on June 28, 2015, in Vienna, Austria, before resuming negotiations about the future of Iran's nuclear program. Photo by: U.S. Department of State

60 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

Demonstration in favor of Nuclear Agreement.

Twitter, the social media network, for nearly six months, I can tell you that it is a distinct and reachable reality.

Most individuals have an opinion on the pending nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran and the ongoing negotiations between the P5+—Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia—and the United States. As the designated June 30 deadline for a final nuclear agreement rolled by, with a new date slated for July 7, a large sigh of relief reverberated in corners around the world.

That said, very few of these worried individuals can pinpoint exactly what they are against, besides a “feeling.” The

rhetoric insisting that Iran is anti-Western or that Iran’s leadership is irrational has some precedent, but to what extent is it actually based on facts? Such rhetoric feels a bit like the Cold War when all Russians were considered to be Communists; today, all Iranians are Islamic radicals ready to drop a nuke, eradicating all civilization. As an open-source intelligence analyst, I felt and continue to feel obligated to seek out a type of truth about the future of such a deal and the actual reality to which any rhetoric, for or against, is based. I know how most Western outlets feel. I, we, know how hard-liner Islamists in Iran express their

disdain towards such a pact. But, how do Iranians feel? Their missing narrative needs to be heard in order to make a legitimate argument for or against a final nuclear agreement. You cannot leave an entire nation out of the equation.

When starting in my line of work, I thought I “knew” about Iran. What I quickly realized was that “real” information was truly hard to obtain. If anyone has read news coming straight out of Iran, they will know what I am talking about. While you can easily see through the propaganda in articles reporting on US events, it is not as easy to accurately decode news about current

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 61

RickKids of Tehran.

#Selfie in front of unprecedented broadcasted speech in Iran by US President Barak Obama following Framework Agreement.

62 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

Iranian events; this is due to Iran’s media censorship as well as our overall distrust and preconceived opinions. This distrust is easy to understand, and ever easier to comprehend if one witnessed the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, all the events leading to the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty and its eventual replacement with an Islamic republic. In addition to the transition of power, the United States was further scarred by the Iran hostage crisis, in which 52 American diplomats and citizens were held hostage for 444 days after a group of Iranian students, supporting the Revolution, took over Tehran’s US Embassy. Then-President Jimmy Carter called the hostages “victims of terrorism.” Terrorism is a scary word and even more so now post 9-11 and with the swiftly spreading influence of the Islamic State (IS).

While the people of some countries such as Egypt and Yemen are vocal on social media, easing the complexities of examining the real-time situation within their borders, Iran’s people are not. This is not because they are uninterested, however, or that they do not wish to be heard, but rather due to the role that social media played in Iran’s 2009 protests, known as the Green Revolution, that broke out across major cities in Iran against the results of the Iranian presidential elections. Despite the relatively peaceful nature of the protests, security forces suppressed them by using batons, pepper spray, and, in some cases, firearms. The most widely known victim was Neda Agha-Soltan, who was shot; her last moments were uploaded to YouTube and broadcast around the world. Iranian authorities since then have blocked websites, cell phone transmissions, and text messaging.

Six months ago, such blackouts heavily persisted in Iran. Among my colleagues and me, it was almost as if we gave up.

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Snap from PressTV

How would we navigate the lack of uncleared trails into Iran? I went into mission mode and was lucky enough to witness the country emerge from a deep sleep. For my own research, I kept #Tehran open on Twitter. I cannot pinpoint the exact date it woke up because, honestly, I didn’t really believe it, but pictures of demonstrations, the city of Tehran in general, and groups of young people drinking cocktails and being, overall, what we often refer to as “cool” emerged. I started to add “tweeps,” the word for those on Twitter, and was surprised by their acceptance to follow me back. Not only that, as I became more brave, I began to ask them questions.

They were simple at first, including, “Where is this demonstration being held?” Moreover, when I saw that they had no problem answering and, even more, that their English was superb, I

asked more personal questions about their lives. A new world manifested at my fingertips.

Subsequently, I observed a peak of social media activity in Iran around April 2, 2015, when negotiators announced a framework agreement for the parameters of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), following weeks of extensive and extended negotiations dating back to November 2013. Iranians took to social media, posting pictures of celebrations in Downtown Tehran and statements of the utmost support, in eloquent English. Others posted “selfies” with their televisions that were broadcasting an unprecedented speech of US President Obama announcing the agreement. Moreover, speaking with my new acquaintances on Twitter, an overall sense of hope mixed with nervous urgency filled the air. When would there

64 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

be a deal? When could Iranians finally receive an iPhone or buy a Chevy pickup truck? This is what was on their minds.

What was clearly not on their minds was “Death to America”; what I heard instead was “America save us.” It’s been a long time since we have heard this, actually heard this.

With this in mind, although many Iranians were perceived as bypassing the state’s filtering system to post positive messages after the announcement of a framework for a nuclear deal, in my opinion, based on my ample time on Twitter, the phenomenon began before.

And, I believe that there is a reason why. Iran must sign a final nuclear agreement. Their economy, their very position in the world, depends on it.

Their current position is not sustainable, and they wanted to show us that they know it. Despite statements from

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The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 65

Iran’s government claiming that they do not need to sign a deal, numbers prove otherwise. For example, plane crashes are often recorded in Iran due to sanctions placed on receiving updated aviation parts; this dictates a different story from the official one. Iranians need us to support this deal. They will no longer stand by and watch a government crush their dreams as with the Green Revolution. The government likely knows this, while average Iranians will promise you this. This is the epitome of ripeness.

It is hard to trust a demonized country, one that held US citizens hostage.

Moreover, it is hard to trust a people that during the Green Revolution had so much power and took to the streets but retreated upon pressure. Nevertheless, let’s not have our or their fear dismiss a historical opportunity to open our doors to the Iranian people who desperately

want in. Iran has the ability to become an important and strategic ally against common enemies such as ISIS. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Iranians are ready to seize it, and let’s seize it too. My new outlook, gained from my discussions with Iranians, is that a final nuclear agreement with Iran is not one that we will live to regret.

•

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Following in her family’s military heritage, Katie Pototsky moved to Israel at the age of 19 to serve as a shooting instructor in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). After her service, Katie earned her B.A. in Government, specializing in Counter-Terrorism and Middle Eastern studies, and then an M.A. in Migration Studies. Today, she lives in Tel Aviv, Israel and works at Scopus Security LTD.

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70 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

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The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 71

TRAINING REVIEW

Active Shooter Training

S

ince 2001 I have been attending various schools and courses related to the topics of combat, shooting, and strategy.

I had been taking local courses in South Florida and traveling to shooting schools in Las Vegas up until 2002, when my hobby became my profession. By August of 2002, I was in the Israeli Army. How I got there and what I did is a story for another time. What is for sure, though, is that I got exposed to some interesting training and methods of teaching that really put things in perspective for me. The key element was aggression and meeting violence with greater violence; this changed me. Since then, a whole new world of opportunity has opened up to me in the world of training and I have had the privilege to attend several courses here in the US since 2010.

On January 8/9 of this year, I was able to attend the Active Shooter course for law enforcement only at Broward College Institute of Public Safety (IPS). There were about 20 of us in the class from various local law enforcement agencies throughout South Florida; I was the only one coming from the federal/military side of the house. The instructors were three officers from the Broward Sheriff Office SWAT team. Each of them came with their own experiences but with one objective in mind: Close distance to the shooter and neutralize the threat.

The first day was all classroom, as FDLE classes have a mandatory hour and ratio requirement that needs to be met. We covered past active shooter incidents,

case studies, and strategies for working together as a 2-3-4-5–man team when searching for an assailant in an unknown location within a structure. It was all about room clearing and team tactics.

We focused on the basics and how officers from several different agencies could come together and use common best practices to get the job done safely.

Whenever I take these types of courses, I always compare them to my roots and background from the IDF. In this case, the fundamental difference is how the active shooter or terrorist is dealt with in its final state. More specifically, in the Israeli model the response team would close distance to the shooter/terrorist and neutralize him in a permanent way.

72 The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015

By Garret Machine

In this model, threat neutralization or kill confirmation is not necessarily part of combat doctrine.

I think the former is safer for the officers responding.

We spent day two entirely in an office building, which was temporarily converted to a shoot house for Simunition marking rounds. We started out with dry drills and demonstrations from our instructors and then did a confidence-building drill just to get comfortable with shooting around and close to one another. We were put in a small room that was square in shape and in which three of the four walls were made from glass. Each wall had a card with a letter on it; each of us was given a number to identify us. We stood in the center of the room back to back with our loaded pistols holstered.

The instructors stood in between the cards on the walls. Our lead instructor would call out one of our numbers and then a letter that would indicate the card we needed to shoot. Eventually the lead instructor would call out a series of letters. Our objective was to quickly and accurately shoot through, around, and over our fellow officers without them having to move. As our confidence increased, so did the complexity, until two or three of us would be shooting at once. This was an excellent drill and made the 16-hour class. After that we spent the rest of the day running scenarios and had a working lunch.

We ran drills in the building one after another, and with each passing drill, the realism and stress increased. Multiple

shooters, screaming hostages, sirens, darkness, shoot/don’t shoot scenarios, etc.—it was realistic training.

To conclude, I would say that this was an extremely valuable way to spend a Thursday/Friday, and I would do the same class again. The instructors were on their game and had organized the class so that it went off without a hiccup. The one thing I would like to see happen with the active shooter program in the future is extend it to two days, with one day dedicated to live fire at the range so we can practice shooting at moving targets, and the second day moving from the parking lot or patrol car to the actual structure, bounding and over watch for movement to contact.

•

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Garret Machine served as a combat soldier in the Duvdevan Unit of the Israeli Defense Force, where he gained extensive combat experience from multiple operations in support of Israeli counter terrorism and national security objectives. Duvdevan is a counter terror (CT) unit specializing in urban warfare, hostage rescue, targeted assassinations, and kidnapping of wanted militants throughout the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and border nations. He was a firearms tactics instructor in his unit and later provided Personnel Security Detail (PSD) for Ministry of Defense officials on highrisk assignments. In 2012, Machine joined the ranks of TACLET, the SOF component of the USCG, and further distinguished himself by earning the Director of Homeland Security Award for his performance at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center (FLETC).

Machine has published two DVDs on combat shooting (Pressure Makes Diamonds) and a book on combat tactics (Israeli Security Concepts), both available on Amazon.

Photos courtesy of SSI’s Active Shooter Training

The Counter Terrorist ~ August/September 2015 73

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