华商 Chinese Enterprise - 2016 issue 1

04 “新里程，新篇章” 总商会喜迎110周年大庆

15 transforming into a new Era, succession of a new chapter

CHINESE ENTERPRISE MCI (P) 101/03/2015

第一期 . ISSUE 1/2016

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卷首语 PRESIDENT’S NOTE 继往开来

Forging ahead into the Future

建国以来，我国在面临经济困境时 总能灵活应变、积极转型。但万变不离 其宗，在改革求变的同时，我们又是否 了解自身固有的特性？

Since attaining independence, Singapore has always been flexible enough to transform itself through economic adversities.

Nevertheless, despite all the transformations, our core attributes remain steadfast.

建国总理李光耀曾说，我们之所以 能够发展， “是因为我们是个持有东方 价值观的社会……有着坚韧的家庭关 系，对家庭负责任”。据总商会调查，本 地的家族企业多年来正是秉持着家庭价 值观发展业务。例如，家族企业重视员 工归属感，而员工也表现出诚信与责任 感，形同一家人。这种价值观使企业在 决策时更有效率，并寻求长期的稳定发 展，即使遭遇逆境也会尽力保住员工。

And what are our attributes? Our nation’s founding father Lee Kuan Yew once said that we have progressed and developed because we were an “Asian-Oriental-type society”, and “a people with Asian values, strong family ties and responsibility for the extended family”. According to an SCCCI study, family values form the foundation of local family businesses. For instance, family businesses aspire to cultivate a great sense of belonging among employees, while the latter demonstrate strong workplace integrity and commitment, akin to that of a family. This value system facilitates the decision-making process, and brings about long-term stability.

There is also a greater tendency to retain staff even during downturns.

本地家族企业既以东方家庭价值 构建企业文化，也秉持开放精神，积极 采纳西方的专业管理经验，招聘外来管 理专才，可说是体用兼备。

兼备自身特性与开放精神的组织 必将活力充沛，生生不息。也正是凭藉 这一活力，总商会自身亦成功跨越了重 重历史挑战，顺利薪火相传，于今年迈入 了成立第110个年头。

走过这一里程碑，总商会将继续履 行使命，与商界群策群力，继往开来！

Apart from shaping corporate culture with oriental family values, the local family businesses are now more open to adopting Western managerial skills and recruiting outside experts to professionalise their businesses. They are gradually moving towards a right balance.

Distinctive attributes coupled with an open mindset help to keep an organisation vibrant and ensure its sustainability. Buoyed by these very attributes, the Chamber has also surmounted numerous historical challenges, managed successions of leadership over generations and eventually reached its 110th anniversary this year.

Beyond this milestone, the Chamber will continue to work closely with the business community to fulfil its mission, and forge ahead into the future!

会长 Thomas Chua, SCCCI President 请到总商会网站 www.sccci.org.sg 阅读电子版《华商》。 Chinese Enterprise can be viewed online through the Chamber’s corporate website www.sccci.org.sg

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编辑顾问 Editorial Advisors Thomas Chua Kee Seng Teo Siong Seng Charles Ho Nai Chuen Lim Geok Khoon

蔡其生 张松声 何乃全 林玉勤

目录 CONTENTS

出版统筹 Publications Supervision

谭宝锠 Tham Poh Cheong 主编

华商焦点

Editor

胡爱兰 Fiona Hu 副编辑

04

“新里程，新篇章” 总商会喜迎110周年大庆 喜迎110周年之际，总商会将举办一 系列精彩活动，以凝聚商界力量，谱 写崭新篇章！

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家族企业研究： 招揽管理专才为最大挑战 本地家族企业有何特处，又面对何种 挑战？四名具有相关背景的论坛嘉宾 结合专题研究结论与个人经验，畅谈 家族企业的经营与传承之道。

Assistant Editor

陈星伊 Chin Sin Yee 撰稿 Staff WriterS

李依玲 Samantha Lee 李胜保 Lee Sin Poh 许彬彬 Kelvin Khaw 林征鍏 Lim Cheng Wei 特约撰稿 Contributors

陈达德 Francis Tan 行销 Marketing

黄兆荣 Leonardo Wong

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Design Egg Creatives Publisher

Chinese Enterprise is produced and designed by Egg Creatives Pte Ltd (Registration No. 200504905G) for Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce & Industry (Registration No. S61550014E). Copyright of the materials contained in this publication belongs to SCCCI. Nothing in here shall be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written consent of SCCCI and/or Egg Creatives Pte Ltd. The views expressed in Chinese Enterprise by authors and contributors are not necessarily those of SCCCI and no liabilities shall be attached thereto. All rights reserved.

Editorial enquiries should be directed to the Editor, Chinese Enterprise, Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce & Industry, 47 Hill Street #09-00 Singapore 179365. Tel: (65) 6337 8381 Fax: (65) 6339 0605 E-mail: CnP@sccci.org.sg. Unsolicited material will not be returned unless accompanied by a selfaddressed envelope and sufficient return postage.

While every reasonable care will be taken by the Editor, no responsibility is assumed for the return of unsolicited material. MCI (P) 101/03/2015.

Printed by Innotech Communication Pte Ltd (Registration No. 199604880H).

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20

Three Dominating Factors of 2016 Currency Market Credit Suisse Currency Strategist Heng Koon How explained how new fiscal and economic policies of the world’s largest economies will influence the 2016 global currency market.

22

Pre-Budget 2016 Survey: SCCCI Urges Government to Review Rising Business Costs Ahead of the annual Budget in March, SCCCI put forward four recommendations to the Government, including setting up a Cost Review Committee to cope with rising business costs.

狮城经贸

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新加坡中华总商会 Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce & Industry 47 Hill Street #09-00 Singapore 179365 Tel: (65) 6337 8381 Fax: (65) 6339 0605 E-mail: corporate@sccci.org.sg Website: www.sccci.org.sg

“外人” 高管进家族企业 发现下一代不适合接手管理业务时， 家族企业应如何妥善地引入外来专 才及分配权力？

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供应侧改革政策出台 中国市场波云诡谲 瑞信经济分析师陶冬指出，北京即将 推行的供应侧改革政策在推动后工 业化的同时将带来市场逆流，中国市 场势更变数难测。 财政预算案前调查：总商会建议政府 制定技能阶梯框架 在政府筹备财政预算案之际，总商会 提呈了四项改革建议，其中包括制定 技能阶梯框架以加强人力效益。

Corporate Strategies

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Transformation into a New Era, Succession of a New Chapter The Chamber launched its 110th Anniversary logo at the height of the Lunar New Year gathering and announced an exciting series of events for the coming year.

ASEAN, the New Economic Wave Following the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), Francis Tan from UOB shares insights on several driving factors and requirements of ASEAN’s future growth.

商会时讯

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逝者已矣，来者可追 总商会鼎力支持“#再也不会”社交 媒体活动，呼吁人民提高国家安全意 识，防患未然。

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Going the Extra Mile to Support National Service Recognising the importance of national security, City Developments Ltd takes positive steps to provide valuable support to National Service (NS).

In the Lead

15

Looking at Life in and Beyond a Box of Chocolates Pamela Loo of FNA Group, well-known distributor and retailer of chocolates and confectionery, speaks candidly to Chinese Enterprise on finding her groove in the family business.

Economic Review

观商海

设计

出版

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04

华商焦点

IN THE LEAD

“新里程，新篇章”

总商会喜迎 110周年大庆 文：李胜保

金羊调头去，灵猴报喜来！随着火猴年的到来，中华总商会也迈入了成立第110个年 头。在大年初一的团拜活动上，总商会为110周年大庆揭开帷幕，并宣布了今年的 一系列庆祝活动。

蔡其生会长（右）与易华仁部长（左）揭晓总商会110周年庆徽章，其中以毛笔书写的数字“110”有如巨龙腾飞，象征着华商放眼四海、开创新里程的非凡气魄。

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华商焦点

IN THE LEAD

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中午吉时，贸工部长（工业）易华仁（中）连同总理公署部长陈振声、文化、社区及青年部兼财政部高级政务部长沈颖、通讯及新闻部兼卫生部 政务部长徐方达、人力部政务部长张思乐、教育部兼贸工部政务次长刘燕玲与总商会董事和宾客们互相贺岁，喜迎新春。

大年初一，总商会一如往年隆重 举办了新春团拜活动，并邀请了贸工 部（工业）易华仁部长为活动主宾。其 他政府官员、总商会历届董事与各国 使节等共约650名宾客荟萃一堂，同 贺新禧。

蔡其生会长表示，这些活动不仅 是为了庆祝周年庆，更旨在帮助商界应 对挑战。 “这些活动必须切切实实地 响应政府、配合其政策，并给予中小 型企业所需要的一些鼓励，帮助它们 成长。”

周年庆系列活动配合商界需求而设

活动上，蔡其生会长与易华仁部 长一同推介了总商会的110周年庆徽 章，并宣布了今年的一系列庆典活动， 包括专为事业女性举办的高端论坛、 慈善高尔夫球赛、探讨新中两国合作 的商务论坛，及推动企业成长及善用 科技的大型会展等。此外，总商会管 理学院即将推出线上学习网站；所有 商会新旧会员也将在今年享受一次过 的超级会费优待。

易华仁：火猴年充满挑战，但情况不尽 悲观

主宾易华仁部长在致辞时指出， 去年的经济增长是自2009年全球金融 危机以来的新低，而今年经济前景也 将受制于周期性和结构性因素，包括 中国经济持续放缓、美国经济增长乏 力和主要市场的“内包”(insourcing) 趋 势。尽管这意味着经济环境极可能持 续疲弱，但他却不尽悲观。

大庆的轴心活动则将安排在9月 21日至23日进行。总商会在这三日之 内将连续举办三场活动，包括协助推 动行业转型的商团大会、专为年轻企 业家与会员安排的游轮交流活动，以 及欢庆110周年的大型晚宴。

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“有些行业会面对极大的挑战， 但情况并非完全如此黯淡。例如，较低 的油价虽然冲击某些行业，但对大多 数企业来说，这也意味着较低的能源 成本。我们的失业率维持在低水平； 而我们也将继续通过研发与未来技能 等计划增强我们的能力。此外，在区域

市场及一些行业如先进制造业、物流、 保健、数码与城市解决方案等领域， 还是会有一些长期和短期的机会让我 们去争取。” 正视商会建议，打造亲商环境

在 祝 贺 总商会成 立110 周年之 际，易华仁部长也表彰了总商会对商 界与国家的贡献，这包括为中小企业 提供咨询服务、促进政企联系、进行 预算案前调查并向政府提呈建议等各 种努力。针对后者，他也透露政府已 在关注相关商界问题，并尝试寻找解 决方案。

“总商会的其中一个建议是减少 企业申请商业津贴的繁文缛节，加速 发放津贴的程序。实际上，政府机构 一直在积极探讨简化申请程序。标新 局与企发局也已经把他们的津贴计划 整合为两大主要项目——能力发展津 贴计划与国际企业合作计划。另外， 即将推出的商业津贴网站(business grants Portal)将方便商家确认、申请并 管理他们所申请的商业津贴，使中小 企业更容易从政府各项计划中受惠。

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新加坡家族企业的经营与传承 华商焦点

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IN THE LEAD

家族企业研究：

招揽管理专才为最大挑战 文：李胜保

创业难，守业更难。一项由新加坡中华总商会与普华永道会计师事务所 (Pwc)合作进行的调查就发现，本地家族企业隔代传承的成功率竟只有 约一半。究竟家族企业有何特处？家业传承的症结又何在？ 《华商》予以报道。

（左起）蔡其生会长、张明颜顾问、吕静羚与吕立岩董事参与家族企业论坛，各抒己见。吴绍均主席（右）为论坛主持。

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新加坡家族企业的经营与传承 华商焦点

IN THE LEAD

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“家族企业往往受家庭因素所累，而非商业因素。”吴绍均主席总结家族企业研究报告。

家族企业之长：长远考量、决策效率、 家庭价值观

1月21日，这项以112家家族企业 为调查样本的研究成果出炉。总商会 在洲际酒店举办研讨会与论坛，揭开 了家族企业独有的特质，亦深入剖析 其运营与传承的问题。

发表研究成果的总商会财政委 员会主席、普华永道合伙人吴绍均指 出，本地家族企业具备了一些特质， 如长 远考量、高决 策 效率 与家庭价 值观。出于对传承家业的理想，这些 企业往往更注重长期发展目标，因此 趋于保守、避险，追求和谐与稳健发 展。与非家族企业拓展业务、追求短 期业绩的目标相比，大多家族企业却 更乐于追求稳健发展（71.2%）和保 持现状（11.7%），这可说是一种“耐 性资本”(patient capital)。此外，家族 企业在进行决策上更具效率，面对经 营困难时也更愿意保住员工。 招揽专才、传承规划为当务之急

家族企业给予一般人的印象或 许是封闭、守旧，但事实并非如此。 据调查，大多本地家族企业都选择将

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企业拥有权传予下一代，但同时引入 外来人才进行专业管理（53.6%），而 招揽人才也正是最多家族企业所面 对的挑战（64.7%），其次是企业传承 规划（54.1%）。

在 招 揽 人 才 的 努力上，家 族 企 业 须 努力实现 更制度化、正 规 的管 理 和 透 明 的业务 资 讯 分享，以有 效 分 配 权 力、建 立 上下层互信及培 养 员工归属 感。被询 及留住 人才 的方 法，受访者也认为企业文化是关键因 素（56.8%）。但在专业化管理之前，家 族企业须事先以更专业的方式治理家 族。调查显示大多家庭企业仍通过非正 式渠道解决纠纷（44.3%），缺乏正规 的章程与制度，决策也更易受情绪因素 左右。

在传承规划上，家族企业则须克 服隔代差异、亲子缺乏沟通与建立接 班人信誉这三重问题。时移世易，今 日年轻一代大多受过高深教育，机会 良多，未必肯投身家业。其次，在缺乏 正式规划下，亲子间容易出现沟通问 题，对于未来规划出现分歧。其三， 接班人必须及时做好准备，从基层做

起，累积资历，以身作则，接班后才 有能力取信于员工。 中西合璧，兼容折衷

本 地家族企业在 未来的日子里 必然要在东方的家庭和谐价值观与 西方的正规企业管理方法中取得 平 衡，这显然不易。吴绍均主席最终点 出了家庭企业传承问题的症结： “每 个家族企业各不相同，但结构性问题 是一致的。家庭企业往往受家庭因素 所累，而非商业因素。”他认为，只要 在招揽人才、培养接班人、传承规划、 专业化管理数个方向做好，就能解决 家族企业的多数问题。

除了发布研究成果，总商会也与 普华永道联办了一场论坛交流，邀请 了四位有经营家庭企业背景的嘉宾 参与，各为：总商会会长兼德华工业 控股有限公司执行主席蔡其生、公司 执行主席顾问张明颜；总商会董事兼 focus network agencies (fna) 集团总 裁吕立岩、吕董事的长女吕静羚(fna 集团零售及本地销售部主管）。

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华商焦点

蔡其生

IN THE LEAD

“家庭观念、热忱、责任感是传承家业的动力。”

为了保留父亲辛苦创办的公司，蔡其生会长在大学毕业后选择加入公司并从基层做起， 希望在受高等教育后能善用知识开创一番事业。接手生意后，父亲则在旁协助改善公司在运 营方面的缺陷。如今，他也让第三代自由选择是否接手企业，而三位女儿也决定加入。 “她们 认为公司是爷爷创办的，所以要传承下去。我十分重视这种家庭观念、热忱与责任感，也唯有 如此才能向众多员工及股东负责。”

新加坡中华总商会会长、德华工业 控股执行主席。大学毕业后加入德 华工业，从父亲接手业务，积极转 型。今天德华以印刷包装为主业， 业务遍布亚洲各地。

公司在1994年上市时，他意识到必须将进行制度化管理，才能取得突破，因此开始招揽 专业人才。 “我认为一个人的价值观最重要，所以首先带入背景较熟悉的同学。其次，引进外 来专才须识别出有愿景和抱负的人才，这种人在面对考验时信心才不会动摇。同时，领导者也 要创造环境让人才发挥能力，帮助他们建立威信。”

张明颜

“家族企业老板与员工之间有着如一家人般的关系。”

二十多年前，张明颜选择离开工作多年的跨国企业，又听说本地中小型企业对国家经济 的重要性，便毅然决定加入以体验本地的家族企业的工作环境，而首日加入德华工业就让她 大开眼界。 “第一天上班是大年初五的开工日，老板派给员工们每人一封大红包以示鼓励，这 是在跨国企业里无法感受的。家族企业里的老板与员工关系正像家人一般，例如在面临经济 危机时，老板除了召开高层会议，也与下层员工商讨对策，员工竟然建议自动减薪。”

谈及如何招揽人才，她认为可以借鉴“疑人不用、用人不疑”这句古语：在决定纳用人才 后，就须懂得下放权力，同时通过有效的系统进行监察，并让非家庭成员参与决策过程以培 养其归属感。她认为，家族企业传承的最大挑战在于隔代鸿沟，这包括接班人与管理层的沟 通、多代人之间的文化差异等。

吕立岩

总商会董事，FNA集团创办人兼总 裁，是亚太最大的巧克力分销和零 售商之一，2014年曾获第12届安永 新加坡企业家大奖。

德华工业控股执行主席顾问。曾于 跨国企业工作逾20年，后加入家 族企业——德华工业控股，服务 至今已21年。

“时时以身作则，培养优良价值观，让孩子认识到企业 可以创造有比盈利更大的意义。”

吕立岩重点讨论了将正面价值——谦虚、务实、慷慨、同情心传予下一代的重要性。 他的孩子自幼就参与教堂活动，受宗教教育熏陶，他因此也以社会关怀出发，说服孩子 加入企业。 “大女儿毕业后本来打算在教会做两年义工，我则告诉她提升自身经济能力可 以更大幅度帮助社会，鼓励她加入企业。此外，公司里也有患有体障、绝症的员工及前囚 犯，我们也大力给予支持。我希望孩子们通过这种社会视角和价值观，了解经营企业可 以创造比盈利更大的意义。”

在传承规划上，吕立岩认为第一代要学会放手。 “为了顺利让下一代接手，我已经在 建立相关机制，如设立内部审计与合规部门。交棒后，我在企业策略、伙伴与传媒关系方 面会继续辅助，但将完全退出经营事务。”

吕静羚

“父亲在公司和家里都言行一致，言传身教对我影响深远。”

吕静羚表示，父亲在公司和家里都言行一致，令她敬佩。她回忆起父亲如何在她从 小就给予她良好的价值观教育： “记得有次他带我到小贩中心，途中买了一份报纸阅读。 用餐后在回家路途上，他却把报纸还给了卖报人，告诉我说‘这样她就可以卖多一块钱 了’。虽然只是个小动作，但这种精神对我影响深远。”

作为四兄妹中的长女，她表示兄弟姐妹之间兴趣与性格相异，因此可以各司其职、 发挥所长。 “我的性格外向，妹妹则较内向，而且创意十足，非常适合做营销。我没有这 个能力，也没必要去争功。”

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吕立岩董事长女，毕业于新加坡国 立大学，加入家族企业四年。现为 FNA集团零售及本地销售部主管。

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观商海

高管进 家族企业 文：蔡其生

EYE ON BUSINESS

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一般上人们会觉得到家族企业打工没有前途， 公司的管理层都是自家人，外人很难受到重用。 总商会刚刚公布的家族企业调查报告中，就有 一个结论刚好与这种观点相反！在参与调查的 100多家本地家族企业当中，81.1%的企业聘请 了外人做高管；而且，有53.6%企业表示会把拥 有权传给下一代，但是管理权考虑让专业人士 接管。

“虽然拥有权和管理 权分开传承，但毕竟双 方都能影响企业的未 来，只有拥有者和管理 者配合默契，企业才能 得以永续发展。”

交出管理权是明智的

这个调查是 总商会与普华永道 (Pwc) 联合举办的。他们曾经做过一个 全球家族企业调查，其中引进外人做 高管的只有52.7％，愿意把管理权交 给专业人士的只有32％，这两个指标 都比新加坡低了20多个百分点。看到 这样的调查结果，我非常欣慰，因为在 德华，许多高管都是专业人士，他们敬 业乐群，是公司重要的核心骨干。比较 一下新加坡与全球家族企业调查的结 果，本地家族企业在传承方面更加开 放，愿意为了企业的发展不断寻求新方 法，也更加注重团队精神。

选择家族企业接班人，最称心的 莫过于自家的孩子有心有能力，肯学肯

拼。但是，一些传统行业对年轻人来 说缺乏吸引力，许多业者的子女在外 面的职场有更多的选择。俗话说强扭 的瓜不甜，让他们放弃自己的兴趣和 爱好回家族企业接班，即使回来了也 很难做出成绩。因此，将管理权交给 专业人士，自家人保留拥有权，可谓 明智之举。 拥有和管理两方需配合

这样做有两个关键，一是要尽早 观察了解子女的兴趣、爱好，努力引 导一番后仍然无法称心如愿，就要早 做打算；二是根据子女的特点，尽量 栽培性格、能力，特别是情商互补的 专业人士，让他们与子女成为可以密 切合作的团队。虽然拥有权和管理权

分开传承，但毕竟双方都能影响企业 的未来，只有拥有者和管理者配合默 契，企业才能得以永续发展。否则的 话，两派人马离心离德容易造成内乱， 那可是人为制造了麻烦。

去年，我在总商会第58届董事会 就职典礼上曾说，总商会将以“企业传 承 家业长青”为主题，进行家族企业 专项研究，重点是传承和接班。我也 很高兴能够在任期内顺利推进这项研 究，并得到了董事和会员们的鼎力支 持。接下来总商会还会有一系列的后 续活动，目的就是为本地家族企业总 结经验，大家一起深入讨论，以便在不 断变化的商业环境中让企业得以顺利 传承。

自2014年7月31日，总商会蔡其生会长受邀为联合晚报《晚咖》专栏执笔。此文首次发表于2016年2月1日《晚咖》专栏。《华商》经《 联合晚报》的许可转载。

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供应侧改革政策出台 中国市场波云诡谲 讲者简介

陶冬 瑞信亚洲区首席经济分析师

甫入新年，习近平政府即宣布了市场供应侧改革政策，为未来数年的中国经济政 策定下了主轴。这一有望催速后工业化、突破经济增长瓶颈的结构性改革料将带 来短期逆流，中国市场势更变数难测。

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“如今中国的海外购买力 达到了一万亿元人民币。 所谓的供应侧刺激就是制 造新的供应来满足新的 需求。”

——陶冬

“习近平供应侧经济学将成为未来中国经济的主旋律。人们也应开始调整心态，接受中国经 济进入一个 ‘新常态’。” 陶冬在1月7日于新加坡中华总商会举办的华语论坛上评论道。

掌权三年后，习近平政府开始大 刀阔斧施行中国经济转型的政策，中 国经济也将迈入后工业化时代，经济 成长收缓、币值与市场波动等效应必 将持续，而人们必须调整心态坦然接 受中国经济的“新常态”，瑞信亚洲 区首席经济分析师陶冬在1月7日于 新加坡中华总商会与瑞士信贷联办 的“2016商业展望华语论坛”上如此 评论。

成长数据走弱等经济逆流现象将成为 中国经济的“新常态”，不足为奇。

“习近平经济学”诞生：供应侧刺激 将成中国经济主旋律

陶冬认为，中国通过需求侧刺激 如货币发行、财政刺激带动经济发展 的努力成效今已触顶。困境当前，习近 平政府的应对策略在今年一月初次亮 相，宣示着其经济策略将改弦易辙： 以供应侧的突破作为未来发展主轴。 这将是中国继前三个十年的供应端突 破——八十年代从计划经济进入市场 经济、九十年代建设大量经济特区跃 升世界工厂、2002年加盟世界贸易组 织后的第四次结构性突破，是有助中 国走出目前困境的核心策略。

“如今中国的海外购买力达到了 一万亿元人民币。所谓的供应侧（刺 激）就是制造新的供应来满足新的需 求。”随着90后消费大军的崛起，中国 的服务也将赶超制造业，其中经营模 式落后的旅游、教育等产业更是潜力 巨大，有待弃旧迎新、迎头赶上，以更 高度个性化的服务满足内需。

“摧毁过剩产能、消化房地产的 库存、减税、打破国企垄断、打破银行 垄断、鼓励创新、鼓励中小企业，这将 耗时五年或更长，而过程中必将遭受 既得利益者的反抗，十分艰辛。”他认 为，在这长期改革下，币值波动、经济

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虽然结构性改革难免造成短期波 动，但更多的商机将随之崛起。他继 以近日舆论沸扬的新闻——中国游客 到日本狂购智能马桶盖、蜂拥韩国进 行整容手术为例，说明中国进入了对内 供应短缺的后工业化时代，而消费需 求也从新兴市场转向发达市场。

防范信贷危机，发掘自身优势

尽管消费市场蓬勃，但陶冬也对 中国信贷的高速膨胀表示担忧。他预 测中国的信贷周期在未来几年会到达 临界点，触发信贷危机，届时经济中最 弱的领域会首当其冲，地方债务、房地 产、企业现金流必然遭殃，而且不同领 域还会受结构性产品牵连而导致蔓延 效应。

“政府可以延长周期，但无法消 除它。今天无论是在中国还是国外作

业，都应以保险为先，而非追求盈利。 中国经济出现问题虽然不足以造成雷 曼式的市场冲击，但极可能造成全球 性衰退。”

被询及新加坡应如何在中国的变 化中寻找商机，他则认为作为亚洲资产 管理重镇的新加坡应把握人民币国际 化浪潮中的机遇；面对后工业化时代品 味与消费要求更高的中国游客，新加坡 也可多加发掘的自身的文化资产。

本次商业展望论坛也邀请了瑞信 亚太区资深外汇分析师王君豪与新加 坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院的陈 抗教授前来主讲。王君豪指出，美联储 升息、中国市场改革与走弱的大宗商 品价格将是主导今年外汇市场的三大 因素；陈抗则认为全球低经济增长将 在今年持续下去，并详细分析个中因 素。本次论坛吸引了逾200商家和企业 代表出席。 （整理：李胜保）

需求侧与供应侧 经济学史上，凯恩斯 主义学派主张人为扩 大市场需求，但一度 导致经济滞胀现象。 随之兴起的供给学派 则强调经济的供给方 面，认为需求会自动 适应供给的变化。

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财政预算案前调查：

总商会建议政府 制定技能阶梯框架 文：许彬彬

新年伊始，陆续揭晓开来的经济数据却已捎来愁云，如去年的就业增长、制造业增 长、非石油出口等关键指标均呈现下滑，甚至屡创新低。在财政预算案筹备之际， 总商会致力研究商界问题,并总结报告向政府提呈四项改革建议，其中包括制定技 能阶梯框架，以冀改善人力问题。

2016财政预算案将于今年3月24日公布。总商会在政府筹备之际，特别展开“2016年度财政预算案公布前意见调 查”，以了解会员商家对政府财政预算案的期望以及经营前景展望。这项调查从去年11月开始，为期七周，共综合了331 家企业、34家商团提供的意见。受访者来自各行各业，其中93%是中小企业，服务业商家占81%。与往年不同的是，总商 会在今年特别设计了两套问卷，向总商会商团、商家会员征询反馈。

受访商家普遍认为今年的商业展望并不乐观，公司业绩预计也将下滑，总商会因此呼吁商家进行重组和转型。总商 会在总结报告中，向政府提呈四大建议，吁请政府协助企业应对2016年的商业挑战：

总商会向政府提呈四大建议 打造亲商环境

检讨成本高涨问题

政 府在为商家和中小企业 创 造 亲商 环 境 时，应该 更 灵活、高效和果敢。

• 成立经商成本检讨委员 会，全面检讨企业面对 的主要上涨经商成本， 例如租金、人力、水电 费、运输成本与政府行 政收费 • 通过一个专门负责协调 的政府机构来缓减合规 成本和政府产业的租金 • 经济不明朗时期，抑制 政 府办公楼、厂房、商 店楼面的租金涨幅

协助中小企业做好 应对未来发展的 准备

改善人力政策

• 提 供 亲 中 小 企 业 的 计 划，协助他们 转型、创 新，以及在国内外市场 建立良好业绩 • 让 中 小 企 业 更 容 易 申 请援助计划，改善商务 模式，进行产品和服务 创新

• 通过津贴聘请和培训年 长员工，缓解人力短缺 问题 • 支持商团制定技能阶梯 框架，作为更新人头税 和工作准证的标准 • 让更多中小企业从未来 技能培训中受惠

总商会已于1月初，把总结报告提呈给财政部、贸工部、人力部及相关政府机构参考。财政部长王瑞杰将在今年 3月24日发表2016财政年的政府财政预算案声明。总商会希望政府能按商团、行业协会的具体需求，有效制订援助配 套，从而让商团更好地发挥“提高行业整体生产力、推动行业转型创新，满足未来经济需求”的领头羊角色。 随后，总商会也将在4月举办系列讲座及活动，协助商家了解本年度财政预算案中新出台的措施及援助配套。您可到总商会官 方网站www.sccci.org.sg查阅详情。

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本次调查报告的一大亮点是建议政府制定技能阶梯框架，希望通过更新人头税和工作准证的标准，高度提升企业的 人力效益。

技能阶梯框架 应对人力挑战 ，劳资同步迈进

人口结构改变、国人教育水平不断提高的事实，加上人力政策不会出现大逆转的立场，让商家们必须正视 适者生存的定律 -- 企业惟有自救，通过业务转型来减少对基层员工的依赖，并提升员工技能、精简劳动队伍， 才有望突破重围。

商界挑战

自2009年起，政府开始缩紧人力政策，并于 隔年成立“全国生产力与延续教育理事会”，以带 领我国实现全面提升生产力的重大目标，加强我 国的环球竞争实力。

在过去5年的经济转型过渡期，我国商家（特 别是传统行业和中小企业）经历了转型阵痛，人 力课题更让不少商家心头绞痛。来自不同行业的 商团代表们在出席每月餐叙时，都纷纷向总商会 反映业者“请人真难、留人更难”的燃眉之急： o

o

人力供求不平衡 人力政策不会大逆转的立场，加上人口结 构改变、国人教育水平不断提高的事实，导 致需要聘用基层员工的商家们进退维谷两 头难，既不能依 赖外籍员工，又请不到本 地人。 难以留住优秀外籍员工 鉴于各别企业的外籍员工配额已触顶或其 他原因，有些优秀的外籍员工在准证期满后 无法续签必须回国，造成企业流失一批有经 验、生产力高的团队，这对业务的长期发展 增添了不确定因素。

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总商会提呈建议

总商会在综合商界反馈，并对行业人力趋 势、人力政策进行研究后，向政府提出为行业设 定技能阶梯框架的可行方案。具体建议如下： • 促请政府支持商团为所属行业制定技能阶 梯框架，并争取政府及业界的认同。目前， 仅有少数行业（如海事业、建筑业）拥有各 别的技能鉴定标准； • 此框架可成为鉴定外籍员工技能/生产力水 平的行业公认标准，该政策能发挥双重功 效，既能激励企业，又能鞭策员工与雇主齐 心同步提高生产力： o

当 企 业 聘 用 技 能 高、效 率 好 的员 工 时， 可缴付较低的人头税 除了有效协助企业降低经营成本，也能鼓 励行业通过更系统化、受业者公认的方式 来提高行业的整体生产力；

o

作为人力部审批续签准证申请的考量条件 一方面协助雇主留住优秀的外籍员工，为企 业长期发展提供更大确定性，同时也鞭策 外籍员工提高生产力，以加强本身的续签、 受雇能力。对政府而言，这也意味着全民齐 心，同步朝着提高生产力的方向迈进。

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ECONOMIC REvIEW

商团中心： 站在历史新高点，凝聚行业领头羊 本会也预计将在明年初落实商团中心项目，希望通过凝聚各家商团，有效推动行业转型。

“我们的经济改革已经达到由行业主导转化的阶段，而这方面商团扮演着关 键性的角色。… 在政府大力支持下，总商会将借助商团中心这个平台，致力加 强与商团间的合作，制定行业发展蓝图、共同推展提高行业生产力的项目，并 善用未来技能培训计划，协助中小企业提升、转型、应对人力挑战。” ─ 新加坡中华总商会蔡其生会长

商团中心位于前裕廊镇大会堂

设立商团中心的建议，是在2014 年5月举行的商团大会上，由蔡其生会 长首次向贸工部林勋强部长提出。随 后，总商会与裕廊集团在总商会第58 届董事会就职典礼上（2015年3月16 日）签署备忘录并落实这项计划，联合 推动行业转型及合作。

商团中心位于前裕廊镇大会堂。 这座屹立在裕廊山头，貌似扬帆出海

巨轮的宏伟建筑，在1974年开幕后一度 是裕廊镇管理局的总部，也是见证我国 建国初期工业发展的地标性建筑。40 多年后，它在全国欢庆金禧之际被列为 保留建筑，以焕发的姿态，承载国家赋 予的新使命。

商团中心的设立，让总商会能够站 在历史新高点，继续扮演凝聚行业领头 羊的角色，同时与各行业商团携手带领

会员商家提升、转型，共同见证新加坡 经济发展的下一个里程碑。预计到了 2017年初，总商会将与十多家商团会 员一起入驻商团中心。届时，各方将能 发挥协同作用，通过资源共享、互惠 共赢的方式，协助规模较小、资源相 对缺乏的行业协会，拟定行业发展蓝 图，发掘跨领域的合作机遇，并带领 会员商家突破瓶颈，寻找新的业务增 长点。

有兴趣入驻商团中心的行业团体，商会、协会，请致电总商会秘书处（63378381）了解详情。

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IN THE LEAD

15

TRANSFORMING INTO A NEW ERA, SUCCESSION OF A NEW CHAPTER By: Lee Sin Poh & Samantha Lee

The Year of the Monkey: Recording a special and meaningful year for SCCCI in marking its 110th anniversary. according to chinese customs, the first day of the lunar new Year is the most auspicious day of the year. it has been a long-standing tradition of the chamber to welcome guests at its lunar new Year gathering on this very day. this year, some 650 guests gathered bright and early on the morning of february 8, exchanging goodwill wishes and greetings amongst friends and associates as we welcomed the Year of the Monkey. Joining them as guest of honour was Minister for trade and industry (industry) s iswaran. navIGatInG ChaLLenGeS wIth FLeXIBILItY and wIt oF the monKeY While Minister iswaran, in his speech, projected a sluggish economic outlook this year, he noted the short- and long-term opportunities to be seized in regional markets and in sectors like advanced manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, digital and urban solutions. “as the chinese phrase goes – 稳扎稳 打，步步为营 – we must keep a steady foot as we proceed with alertness and caution. that is the surest path to staying competitive, achieving sustainable growth over the long-term, and seizing opportunities when the economic environment improves, as it will,” said Minister iswaran. he further

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SCCCI President Thomas Chua (left) and Minister for Trade and Industry (Industry) S Iswaran (right) hanging ornaments on the Pussy Willow, an auspicious plant which represents prosperity

encouraged businesses to press on with the longer-term economic restructuring to become more innovative, productive and manpower-lean. the monkey is known to be lively, flexible, quick-witted and versatile. in the course of its history, from preindependence to post-independence, the chamber has always borne the good attributes of the monkey, supporting the government’s efforts with versatility and navigating through the many challenges while seizing new opportunities with flexibility and wit.

acknowledging the important role of the chamber, Minister iswaran expressed confidence that the chamber would continue to be nimble and enterprising in supporting and driving the local business community towards continued prosperity, growth and resilience.

StePPInG Into a new eRa, ReCoRdInG a new ChaPteR the lunar new Year gathering reached its climax when President chua and Minister iswaran officiated the launch of the sccci’s 110th anniversary logo to kick-start a year of celebratory events.

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16

IN THE LEAD

Minister for Trade and Industry (Industry) S Iswaran (middle), SCCCI President Thomas Chua (third from left), Immediate Past President Teo Siong Seng (third from right), Vice-President Roland Ng (second from right), Vice-President Lau Tai San (far right), Vice-President Wu Hsioh Kwang (second from left), Chairman of General Affairs Committee Thomas Pek (far left).

Adopting the theme of “A New Era, A New Chapter”, the 110th Anniversary celebrations would set the stage for many interesting activities, among which are a forum by SCCCI Career Women’s Group, a charity golf tournament, a forum on SingaporeChina collaborations, as well as a mega conference and expo to spur the growth of enterprises and technology adoption. The Singapore Chinese Chamber Institute of Business would also be launching an e-learning portal.

The 110th anniversary would culminate with a trio of events happening over three days from September 21-23, when the SCCCI Young Entrepreneurs Network will be organising a cruise involving young entrepreneurs from the region; a Trade Association Congress focusing on the critical role of trade associations in helping their members to transform and upgrade; and the Gala dinner as a grand finale for the 110th Anniversary.

In the 1960s, when Singapore first embarked on industrialisation, the Chamber supported its members in developing their business and connectivity with the global Chinese business community. Today, as the Singapore economy is in the midst of restructuring, the Chamber would continue to step up its efforts and journey alongside its members to navigate through the challenges and eventually scale new heights together.

Thus, while the Chamber celebrates its new milestone, it is also hoped that the line-up of celebratory events and activities would help address business needs, increase support for the business community, and help our local SMEs to grow and thrive.

The accomplishments of the past would become the foundation for the future, supporting the Chamber as we embark on a new milestone in Chamber’s history. With a new stance and creativity, the Chamber would continue to lead the Chinese business community towards new paths of excellence, making even greater endeavours for the economic prosperity and social stability of our nation and society.

The SCCCI’s 110th Anniversary logo, illustrated using Chinese calligraphic script, is highly reminiscent of a mighty dragon soaring into the sky. The stylised treatment of the numerals creates a streamlined and vibrant touch, demonstrating the Chamber’s rich cultural heritage. The combination of red and gold produces a festive ambience, and expresses the Chamber’s confidence to embrace an even more glorious future. In its entirety, the logo has a fluidity of movement, symbolising that the Chamber, notwithstanding its long tradition of history, ceaselessly embarks on globalisation and keeps abreast of current trends. The 110th Anniversary celebrations mark a significant milestone; its past accomplishments will become the foundation of the future, supporting the Chamber as it records new chapters of history!

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IN THE LEAD

17

LOOKING AT LIFE IN AND BEYOND A BOX OF CHOCOLATES By: Samantha Lee

Pamela Loo is a second generation family member of FNA Group, well-known for bringing in sweet treats from all over the world. Chinese Enterprise found the opportunity to chat with Pamela on her involvement in the family business.

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18

华商焦点

IN THE LEAD

growing up with sweet treats was a dream of many, but it was no dream for Pamela. her father, Paul loo, was the man behind the chocolate retail giant in singapore – the cocoa trees. When fna group was set up in 1991, they started as a confectionery distributor with five staff and two brands – hawaiian host and droste. they moved into retail in 1993 with the fna chocolate boutique, subsequently renamed the cocoa trees in 2000.

Why ‘the cocoa trees’? “We had a few names to choose from but we really liked the idea of a tree because tree represented life,” explained Pamela. although Pamela grew up with the company, she never imagined being heavily involved in the family business one day. Majoring in Economics, Pamela had intended to pursue a career related to children with special needs. as it turned out, her father sat her down on the last day of her university examinations, asking if she could help him in the family business. she never saw it coming, but decided to give it a shot after thinking things through. starting from the ground as an events sales staff, Pamela has now worked her way up to the director of retail and local sales at the fna group. asked if given another chance, would she still start her career with an Mnc or the family business? Pamela said: “some exposure in an Mnc would have been good but i think whatever i have learnt over the last four to five years is more than what i can learn in an Mnc.” to Pamela, it was not just about learning the ropes of running the business but also a journey of self-discovery. “i learnt a lot more about myself, more than what i have learnt for the past 20 over years. i always thought i knew myself well enough to know what i can do and cannot do, but over the last few years, i discovered that if pushed out of my comfort zone, even though i may not envision myself taking up certain challenges or roles, i can still adapt and make things work.” waS the BUSIneSS dIFFeRent FRom what YoU had eXPeCted? i thought it would be a lot more orderly. *laughs*

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on the surface, everything seemed fine, but the backend needed some reshuffling.

When the cocoa trees started, we did not have a long-term plan, neither did we have a professional consultant coming in to help the company. We were trying as we went along. there was no one to actually follow up or to see if any changes need to be made. there was no habit of documentation and there were also no soPs or templates. being new to the business, i had to talk to each person individually to understand their functions, and figured out the process by being in the process. weRe theRe tImeS YoU had a BIG dISaGReement wIth YoUR FatheR at woRK? i remember we argued a lot on the renovations of the suntec store. it was the first shop where i ventured to propose a change of design and colour to the signboard, to refresh the corporate image which i found quite dated. i also wanted to update the corporate yellow to a brighter

yellow and interface the store with white and yellow lights for a fresher feel. When i offered my suggestions, he was really offended. he felt i was trying to change a corporate image which he had worked hard to build up over the years.

Eventually, my mother stepped in to mediate and told him that if he did not like the changes made, we could just revert to the original design. so he finally relented and gave me a chance to try.

When he first stepped into the store to inspect the changes, i was really quite worried. What comments would it elicit? fortunately he came in, looked around and said “not bad”, an understated comment which was actually a big relief to me. what waS one oF the BIGGeSt ChaLLenGeS YoU FaCed and how dId YoU oveRCome It? With the ongoing transitions, one big group of employees comprises the

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华商焦点

younger generation around my age. belonging to the younger generation myself, i understand that these younger employees have career aspirations. some do approach me to find out how to develop their career plan and growth prospects. this was to me a valid concern, but not to my father because he believed in “grow as i go”, just in the way he had built the company. among the older generation, they always have the perception that a good employee is one who does what the employers say and trust that the employers would reward them fairly. so my father failed to understand why the younger employees had an issue with their career development. so, i had to convince the younger generation of employees to show that they were willing to work hard and contribute to the company. Eventually, my father realised that although these younger set of employees do think differently, they are just as willing to work hard for the company. these are the people the company needs to retain to ensure continuity. he also recognised that inasmuch as people value the company, the company needs to value its people as well. so he made changes to the leave structure by entitling birthday leave and even formalised the performance appraisal system. dId YoU have anY PRoBLemS wIth ReLatInG to PeoPLe when YoU FIRSt enteRed the ComPanY? i did have my worries but surprisingly no. our company culture is quite family oriented and most of them saw me grow up so they were very friendly. having said that, i also had to build up a relationship with them, listen and understand the reason behind certain processes before proceeding to make certain changes. it entailed much trial and error but at the end of the day, you need to be tactful and patient in explaining and showing them that this new way of doing things can actually make everybody’s life easier. as i know my father’s boundaries quite well, i know what would prompt a ‘yes’ and the ‘no’. so if the people in office wanted to change something or introduce something, they would come to me to see if the proposal would work.

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IN THE LEAD

for example, my hr department would come to me saying that they want to introduce certain processes. if i think the proposal can work, i would find a way to help them persuade my father. so in a way, this helped in facilitating my relationship with colleagues, including my seniors who had a much longer working history in the company. there’s even a joke that i’m like a “nuclear umbrella” and someone who could help them push for change, something which could not have been done before. what IS the moSt ImPoRtant thInG YoU have LeaRnt thRoUGhoUt YoUR StInt at the Fna GRoUP? the way you envision things may not turn out the way you imagined it to be because of operational constraints.

When i first joined the business, i wanted to very quickly cut out the inefficiency of having too much paperwork, but i didn’t know that change is not that easily effected. i started to introduce some systems but some were too sophisticated for my staff, especially the older workers, to execute. so i had to personally go to the store to help my staff with the transition, to teach them how to use the new system. if i realised they had difficulty executing it, i had to find another way to solve the issue and make adaptations accordingly. at the end of the day, it’s all about taking baby steps and finding the best way to change without being too daunting.

FamILY manaGement vS PRoFeSSIonaL manaGement. what aRe YoUR thoUGhtS? i have never seen professional help as a threat. in fact i welcome it as i believe that the company will benefit from professionals who can bring in their expertise and experience from other places. While we never had an internal auditor before, we engaged one recently to help us with compliance. he comes with seven to eight years of experience auditing and going through in detail the processes of other businesses which is his strength, and i honestly felt that we have benefited greatly from him. he was able to identify potential loopholes and weaknesses, share best practices which was beneficial to the company and help us set in stone a system and process.

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We do not have a culture where there is preferential treatment for family members. if the professional has worked hard, met all his kPis, we believe he should be rewarded accordingly and no differently from a family member.

While it may be a family business, we have to keep an open mind because at the end of the day, we need professionals to help grow the company and make the business scalable and take it to the next level. anY advICe FoR thoSe thInKInG oF JoInInG the FamILY BUSIneSS? humility is very important. You need to be willing to start from ground zero and to work hard alongside everyone to prove that your heart is in the business. You need to be patient and understand that things don’t just change in an instant. We need to learn enough to see things for the way they are before trying to see where certain changes can be made. don’t try to force your way through without trying to understand the origin of certain things. what do YoU hoPe FoR Fna to aChIeve In 5 YeaRS’ tIme? i hope to see improvements in the company’s systems and processes, because i find that many current processes are very manual. Whether it’s making our system more efficient or exploring new ways to do old things, we have to adapt and be open to changes.

We should not be fixated in thinking that the way that we come is the way that we will move forward. as a family business, although there are certain weaknesses such as not being as organised, we do tend to be a lot more flexible, a lot more driven and a lot more family- friendly. culturally, i feel that people working with us have a greater attachment to the company than they would in an Mnc. these are the advantages that i feel we should leverage on. We should put in the effort to continue this culture and at the same time build on those strengths. hopefully, we can balance the merits of an Mnc and the family business – being able to implement systems without being too rigid, and yet have the hunger and drive to move things fast instead of being stuck in bureaucracy and red tape.

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ECONOMIC REvIEW

THREE DOMINATING FACTORS OF 2016 CURRENCY MARKET Speaker’s Profile

heng Koon how senior currency strategist, credit suisse

Federal Reserve’s historical rate hike, China’s market reformation and weak commodity prices are the top driving factors of 2016 global currency market, said Heng Koon How in the 2016 Business Outlook forum co-organised by SCCCI and Credit Suisse on January 8.

eURo Zone (eUR) Will depreciate as ECB’s easing programme will last until March 2017, which acquires €60 billion sovereign bonds every month

UnIted StateS (USd) Stable in Q1 despite FED rate hike, as global market received advance notice, but will appreciate and dominate thereafter

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US-eURoPe monetaRY PoLICY dIveRGenCe LeadInG to USd domInanCe citing the monetary policy divergence between us and the Euro zone – fEd rate hike vis-à-vis European central bank’s (Ecb) easing policy, he concluded that 2016 will be a year of continued usd dominance. contrary to fEd’s quantitative tightening, Ecb’s easing programme with largescale sovereign bond purchase which commenced on January 2015 is expected to carry on until March 2017 or even longer, which formulated a purchase scheme of €60 billion of assets per month. “us intends to consolidate against the g4 currency at the beginning of fEd hike, and as the market was well-prepared due to fEd’s advanced notice and delayed action, it is stabilised in the short term. after Q2 this year, however, given its monetary policy divergence with the Euro zone, usd will be driven stronger towards the end of the year.”

ChIna (RmB) volatile and continue depreciating, driven by PBOC’s effort to turn it into a freely tradable, marketoriented currency

ECONOMIC REvIEW

LIBeRaLISed RenmInBI BRInGS down aSIan CURRenCIeS wIth ItS voLatILItY Meanwhile, Mr heng predicted that rMb, after losing 4.3 per cent last year, will continue to depreciate under several factors. decrease in china’s foreign exchange reserve which grew continuously for three decades in 2014, intensification of capital outflow partly due to foreign investment and long term overvaluation indicate that rMb needs to be weaker. in particular, the chinese government claimed it needs to be 15 per cent weaker to stimulate the economy.

Most important of all, People’s bank of china (Pboc) is now also in the bid to liberalise the currency, to turn it from a controlled currency to a freely tradable currency, expecting completion by 2020.

“Pboc is stepping away from active intervention to render rMb a marketoriented currency. Market forces will drive it lower as Pboc steps aside, which started since december 2015. this will continue to make the currency volatile and affect other asian currencies concurrently.”

JaPan (JPY) • Will recover as it had fallen 50 per cent in recent years against every other developed market currency and is undervalued • As a safe haven currency in Asia, JPY will have comparative edge as RMB volatilises

Forecast value (/$1 USD) 6.80

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on top of the loss of rMb stability anchor, he also expected asian currencies to go weaker due to bearish cyclical drivers. contraction in exports has been seen across the asian countries, which are mostly export-driven emerging markets, accompanied with a weak inflation. “this is a perfect excuse for central banks to exercise QE, to cut rates and boost growth. taiwan, south korea, thailand and singapore had done that last year,” he commented. at the same time, weak commodity prices will continue to affect negatively on emerging markets, and relevant commodity-related currencies will be weak. Mr heng ascribed the situation to an excessive commodity supply, and reckoned crude oil price will not recover anytime soon to above usd$50 per barrel. in the outlook forum which attracted more than 220 participants, John Woods, credit suisse asia Pacific chief investment officer and Jeffrey Paine, general Partner of golden gate ventures, were also invited to share their insights. speaking on macro investment outlook, Mr Woods concluded that 2016 will have a slightly better global growth, forecasting 3.3 per cent, led by the Euro zone, Japan and stabilisation at subdued levels among emerging markets, with some recovering. on the other hand, Mr Paine, who embarked on his entrepreneurship by establishing a venture capital firm in 2012 which managed to reach an annual revenue of about usd$60m in 2015, also shared insights gained from his young yet successful business.

(Edited by: lee sin Poh) maLaYSIa (mYR) • Very cheap on long-term valuation basis and is leading to recovery in Malaysia’s export • Likely to maintain current value as Bank Negara stabilises forex reserves • Unable to rebound due to low prices of energy commodities

SInGaPoRe (SGd) • Will be weak as GDP growth will struggle at 2 per cent, core inflation heads to zero, with a high chance of MAS further easing in December • Fall at the same pace of the rest of Asian currency baskets • AAA-rating, safe haven currency status secure stability Forecast value (/$1 USD) 1.45

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aUStRaLIa (aUd) Persistent weakness in bulk commodities prices pins AUD, but downside is limited as job market stabilises

Forecast value (/$1 USD) 4.30 (3:1 to SGd)

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Economic Review

Pre-Budget 2016 Survey: SCCCI Urges Government to Review RISING Business Costs By: Lim Cheng Wei

Reflecting the rather bleak outlook for the domestic economy and slowdowns in the regional and global markets, SCCCI’s pre-Budget survey revealed an increasing pessimism among local businesses. This current state of affairs is largely due to rising costs, manpower shortage and stiff competition in both local and overseas markets. The SCCCI also put forward four major recommendations to the Government, including setting up a Cost Review Committee to monitor hikes in business costs.

Indicators Showing Signs of Singapore’s Economic Slowdown in 2015

As compared to 2015, a higher percentage of SMEs were pessimistic about the general outlook for 2016, up from 17 per cent to 35 per cent.

Similarly, those expecting a decline in revenue increased from 16 per cent to 35 per cent. Besides, businesses expecting a drop in profit margin also rose to 45 per cent from 30 per cent.

The annual Pre-Budget Survey was conducted by the SCCCI ahead of the Budget which will be announced in Parliament on March 24. Feedback was garnered from a total of 331 respondents, most being decision makers from all industry sectors. Besides, a total of 34 trade association members participated in the survey.

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Annual GDP Growth was

Employment Growth

and the weakest since the 2009 global financial crisis. (Source: MTI)

total growth, due to sluggish economic conditions and tightened foreign worker policy. (Source: MOM)

Manufacturing

Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) fell

2.0%

showed its worst performance in 14 years, contracting by

5.2

%

in 2015.

(Source: EDB)

was the lowest in 12 years, with

0.9% 7.2%

in December 2015, mainly due to contraction in shipments to China.

(Source: IE Singapore)

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Economic Review

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Businesses hope for further extension of PIC

Top of the wish-list for respondents was for an extension to the Productivity & Innovation Credit (PIC) scheme. In second place was for an adjustment of the foreign worker policy. This comes as no surprise in view of an overwhelming PIC application rate, where 9 out of 10 respondents who applied for government schemes used PIC, results based on SCCCI’s mid-year SME Survey.

On the other hand, the Pre-Budget Survey also showed that businesses are becoming increasingly concerned with rising foreign worker levies, the inefficient administration process and rising compliance costs, amongst others.

81.8%

Extend Productivity & Innovation Credit scheme beyond YA 2018

71.1%

Adjust foreign worker policies according to the sectoral needs

70.3%

Not to further raise foreign worker levies

65.6%

Speed up administration process of schemes to ease SMEs’ cash flows

65.3%

Provide employers with subsidies e.g. medical & insurance cost to supplement hiring of Singaporean workers aged above 55

65.0%

Ease compliance costs by having a coordinating government agency to review costs imposed by new policies or acts

61.9%

Make schemes on changing business model and innovation easier for SMEs to qualify and apply

58.8%

Encourage governmentlinked companies/large companies to create project opportunities for SMEs to build their track records

Set up Cost Review Committee to Control Business Costs

During this challenging period of transformation, local SMEs are most vulnerable and bear the greatest brunt of global volatility. They also need more government support to help with the transformation process. Based on the survey and the overall business sentiment, SCCCI put forward four recommendations to the government, which included setting up a Cost Review Committee to cope with the rising costs as well as introducing rental cap during difficult times.

1 / Government needs to be more Nimble, Efficient and Bold to create a Pro-business Environment • Singapore has fared well over the years due to the efficiency of the Government. However, the business environment has become more complicated and businesses are increasingly affected by rising compliance costs, rules rigidity and government inefficiency.

2 / Set up Cost Review Committee, Ease Compliance Costs, Rental Cap on Government properties • Address rental, manpower, utilities, transport cost and government fees.

• Try to reduce unnecessary compliance costs when introducing new policies.

• Introduce rental cap during difficult times.

3 / Pro-SMEs schemes to Transform, Innovate and Build SMEs’ Track Record • Develop schemes related to business model transformation and innovation with lower entry barrier for SMEs. • Simplify paperwork requirements.

• Through incentives, encourage GLCs or large companies to create project opportunities for SMEs to participate and earn track record.

4 / Support hiring and training of older workers, Skills Ladder Classification for Levy and Work Pass Renewal, SMEs’ participation in SkillsFuture • Subsidise employers for the costs of hiring local workers aged above 55.

• Allow employers to pay lower levies for higher-skilled foreign workers. Adopting the Skills Ladder Classification in granting work pass extensions.

• Allow more SMEs to take part in SkillsFuture programmes to develop their pipeline talent from ITEs or polytechnic students.

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狮城经贸

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Economic Review

Businesses Need to Keep Pace with Government Policies

Over the years, the Government has been reiterating the importance of restructuring to keep Singapore businesses competitive in the global market. It is imperative for businesses to restructure and transform according to the latest trends and market demand.

Active transformation could also help businesses to keep pace with the government’s vision and benefit from new government initiatives. For instance, with respect to manpower policy, Minister of State for Manpower Teo Ser Luck stressed on January 25 that the

foreign worker levy will stay put.

In response to this, businesses are encouraged to devote more efforts in developing a Singaporean-core workforce by tapping on SkillsFuture and changing their business models to attract the local workforce.

At this juncture, SCCCI and Trade Associations are playing an important role in taking the lead to develop industry development plans, with the purpose of facilitating sectoral upgrading and transformation.

With the support of government funding, businesses have made strong effort in their transformation either at company level or at sector level. However, the transformation has reached a stage that the Government needs to align their policies and collaborate even more broadly with the businesses, especially via the trade associations. This will ensure that business costs can be managed and government programmes can be integrated with the business needs.”

—— SCCCI President Thomas Chua

TRADE ASSOCIATION HUB JOBS

COMPANIES

Job Transformation & Re-design

Upgrading & Restructuring

RESOURCES

GOVERNMENT AGENCIES A*STAR / EDB / HDB / IE Singapore / IMDA IPOS / JTC / NRF / SkillsFuture SG / SPRING

SCCCI

Industry Transformation led by TAs

TECHNOLOGY Productivity Improvement

SUCCESSION PLANNING Business Continuity

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Land, financing, information & HR

MARKETS Venturing Overseas

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运筹帷幄

CORPORATE STRATEGIES

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ASEAN, THE NEXT ECONOMIC WAvE Contributor

Francis tan Economist, united overseas bank (uob)

With a population of more than 600 million and a nominal GDP value of US$2.5 trillion in 2014 which makes it the world’s 7th largest economy, the commencement of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) from end-2015 will usher in a new era of cooperation and opportunities among the grouping’s ten members.

AEC aims to become a single market and production base, a highly competitive region, a region of equitable economic development and a fully-integrated part of the global economy.

dRIvInG FaCtoRS & ReQUIRementS FoR aSean’S GRowth LaRGe and YoUnG PoPULatIon BaSe: “the Sweet SPot” if having a large population of more than 600 million is an advantage, then having a predominantly young population is the trump card. the median age of the asEan population today is 28.9 years, more favourable than that of more advanced nations such as Japan (46.5 years), germany (46.3 years), italy (45 years), hong kong (43.2 years), u.s. (40.8 years), and even china (36 years). in fact, a number of asEan economies are currently experiencing the “demographic sweet spot” – the period when the working population surpasses the non-working population, which means the dependency ratio of the economy is low. Many asEan economies are still experiencing the “sweet spot”, while the demography of some are so young that they will only be in the “sweet spot” many years later. this indicator can be a useful tool for corporates to plan their next production base and target market.

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RaPId URBanISatIon & GRowInG mIddLeInCome CLaSS today, less than half (47.6 per cent) of the asEan population live in urbanised areas. but as global corporates have spotted the huge potential, over the next 15 years, asEan will experience one of the fastest growth in urbanisation rates amongst other major regions. here are some of the reasons for why prosperity of a nation goes hand-in-hand with urbanisation: •

•

• •

Higher value-added products and services are produced as rural workers leave self-sufficient farming jobs and work in the manufacturing and services jobs in cities; Revenues and costs of formal business settings in urban areas are properly recorded and computed as gdP, while non-traded, self-sufficient agricultural products are not; Investments in rural infrastructure by new urban workers further improve agricultural productivity; Better-paid urban dwellers become consumers of higher tastes and demand strengthening economic activities.

defined as the period when the population under 15 years of age drops below 30 per cent, and the population over 65 years of age is less than 15 per cent. this is still some way off from the average urbanisation rate of 51.3 per cent for middleincome countries, and certainly is still a long way off from the 80.4 per cent rate for high-income countries.

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FoReIGn InveStment and InFRaStRUCtURe deveLoPment Even though the “software” towards the path to economic prosperity looks to be in place, one cannot ignore the severe lack in the hardware – under-development infrastructure stock in asEan. one example that underscores the lack of infrastructure investment in the region: by 2020, investment in china’s high speed rail is projected to reach us$300 billion (the equivalent of Malaysia’s nominal gdP in 2013), with track length of 25,000 km. in contrast, asEan’s first high speed rail has barely gotten off the ground, with Malaysia and singapore still in the planning phase of the 330 km kl-singapore line, which is slated for 2020 completion. thailand is also reportedly going ahead with its high speed rail project for completion in 2021, which will eventually be part of the 3,000 km kunming-singapore line. nevertheless, the lag in infrastructure investment, as well as the opening up of economies, had already attracted foreign investment. asEan has surpassed china for the first time in terms of fdi inflows after falling behind for more than a decade.

CORPORATE STRATEGIES

aSean’S InCReaSInG tRade wIth the woRLd asEan has long been a trade-driven economic bloc as its members, at different stages of economic development, brought to the table a varied chain of comparative advantages based on low cost labour, abundant natural resources, and close-knit intra-asEan governmental relationships.

With the aEc, on the trade front we will see another push to both intra-asEan and extra-asEan trade on the back of the promises of a single production platform, and a unified and growing market. Even before aEc forms, asEan’s total trade as a share of world trade had been growing. on the other hand, the shares of the other large trading blocs such as the Euro zone and nafta (north american free trade area) had been falling over the years. assuming the same compounded annual growth rates (cagr) experienced in the past decade, we expect the divergence will continue growing.

aSean’S eConomIC StRateGY: eXPoRtoRIented GRowth the reduction of tariff rates to zero for goods moving amongst asEan economies will encourage investments in the manufacturing and trade industries, as production fragmentation utilises the factor abundance and comparative advantages that are endowed in each nation. With asEan countries competing as a manufacturing powerhouse in the global arena, the result will be even higher export growth in the years ahead. We forecast that asEan exports to the world will grow at an annual rate of 9 per cent in the period 2015-2030. that said, even before the commencement of the aEc, asEan nations have been exporting predominantly to asEan and china. in 2013, 42.5 per cent of total asEan merchandise exports were slated for asEan and china (including hk). With china building up its manufacturing capabilities in the last decade and becoming the world’s factory, asEan’s merchandise exports were increasingly destined for china.

ConCLUSIon the combination of abundant and low cost labour and the economic integration of asEan economies brought about by the aEc will see global manufacturers setting up production bases in asEan. With inbound technological transfers, capital investments and human capital investments, promises of higher wages in the manufacturing sector will draw migrant workers from rural areas into urban cities, and eventually increase the urbanisation rates of developing asEan economies. growing income and accumulated wealth will in turn create a new and savvy group of consumers that will attract global firms to market their goods and services. in fact, the asian development bank estimated that by 2030, nearly half a billion of the population in asEan will be classified as middle-income class. this represents close to 65 per cent of the population by then, from 29 per cent of the asEan population in 2010.

We believe that these projections for asEan are achievable, going by recent developments in asEan, including the opening up of Myanmar to the international community, presidential election in indonesia, the return of stability in thailand after the military coup that ousted former PM Yingluck, among others. in addition, the less developed members such as Myanmar, cambodia, laos, and also vietnam, have plenty of room for growth and to catch up given their low starting bases. in addition, we expect that pro-business policy will continue to be pursued by various member states within asEan, especially within the guiding framework of aEc starting from 2015 that helps to promote free flow of goods, services, investment, and skilled labour, as well as freer flow of capital, all of which would serve to make the region an enlarged production base and a consumer market.

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商会时讯

CHAMBER COMMUNIT Y

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逝者已矣，来者可追 第49届日本占领时期死难人民祭礼 文：李胜保 01

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1. “#再也不会”活动鼓励国人通过社交 媒体宣传国家安全意识。 2. （右起）刘泰山副会长、黄山忠副会 长、傅海燕部长、蔡其生会长、郑民 川名誉会长、文教与社会事务委员会 主席白南泉、中国驻新加坡大使陈晓 东、英国驻新加坡高级专员专署副专 员alexandra Mckenzie、日本驻新加 坡大使竹内春久为日占时期死难人民 默哀。 3. 死者家属虽已年迈，但回首丧亲之 痛，仍不禁悲从中来。 4. 轻香一缕，愿九泉之下的故人得以安息。

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他们数十年如一日，风雨不改地来到这里悼念亲人，直至步履蹒跚、苍颜 华发，那天人永隔的伤痕仍无法痊愈。

新加坡中华总商会在每年的2月15日——新加坡二战沦陷纪念日这一天都 会在美芝路的日本占领时期死难人民纪念碑前举行祭礼，转瞬间已是第49个 年头。今年，文化、社区及青年部长傅海燕受邀为祭礼主宾，与本会董事、宗教 团体、各国驻新外交使节、死难者家属、各院校师生等逾千人一同悼念亡魂，场 面肃穆。

祭礼上，国防社区联系咨询委员会也启动了“#再也不会”(#never again) 社交媒体活动，鼓励国人使用此标签在社交媒体上宣传国家安全意识。活动呼 吁人民居安思危，支持国民服役计划以巩固国防力量，也提醒国人须严防恐怖 主义、网络攻击及区域局势紧张等潜在危机。

逝者已矣，来者可追。愿国人共同努力，不让历史悲剧重演。

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GOING THE EXTRA MILE TO SUPPORT NATIONAL SERvICE As a global trading and investment hub, Singapore’s businesses rely heavily on peace and stability. A credible defence force has provided the stable platform necessary for businesses to thrive and flourish. It is the responsibility of the community – be it businesses, organisations or individuals – to join hands in the support of Total Defence and National Service (NS). support to strengthen the bulwarks of singapore’s national defence. last year, MindEf was also invited to our monthly trade association networking lunch to help the business community actively communicate with them, exploring possible areas of collaboration,” says Mr chua. he adds, “the wide scope of training that nsmen receives has equipped them with various leadership and functional skills which are valuable assets to companies.”

Kwek Eik Sheng, Chief Strategy Officer of CDL, receiving the Total Defence Awards from Guest-of-Honour, Lui Tuck Yew, at the award ceremony in July 2015.

With a sizeable proportion of nsmen working for large companies – city developments limited (cdl) has taken the lead in providing valuable support to ns. since 1999, the pioneer homegrown corporation has introduced ns-friendly practices. tan Ying, vice President, human resource, says: “cdl recognises that our nsmen play an important role in defending and safeguarding singapore’s present and future”.

“We hope that other companies will be inspired to do the same for singapore’s peace and security,” he adds. some ns-friendly practices include giving nsmen a full day leave on the day of their individual Physical Proficiency test (iPPt) so that they can have sufficient preparation and rest time. the iPPt standard scheme matches iPPt rewards dollar-for-dollar and accords up to a day off. for those who have made improvements, maintained a gold award or received

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a promotion in ns, cdl provides supplementary monetary rewards and commendation letters. a half-day off is also granted after in-camp training (ict) to allow them to recuperate. to help encourage nsmen stay fit, staff games and exercise programmes are organised to promote an active lifestyle. “cdl is glad that our various schemes designed to help nsmen perform well at iPPt have shown good results,” says Mr tan. “over the past decade, through our supportive manpower planning measures, we have also managed to achieve zero deferment for ict due to work reasons,” he adds. thomas chua, President of singapore chinese chamber of commerce & industry, believes that the support for ns will contribute to the stability of the country and businesses.

indeed, cdl has observed that nsmen hone important skills and qualities such as organisational abilities and teamwork through training, which can be applied to their work. nsmen employees appreciate cdl’s commitment to ns. kevin kwok, senior Manager, Enterprise risk Management, says that these initiatives are not only forward looking and employee-centric, it encourages them to do their best too.

Prior to his ict, Mr kwok would assess with his manager on whether there is a need for additional resources or extensions in timeline. it helps “to focus on my ns responsibilities with peace of mind,” he says. for going the extra mile, cdl was awarded the ns advocate award for large companies at the total defence awards (tda) in 2015. from last year, the revamped tda recognise a broader spectrum of ns advocates beyond businesses, to include organisations and individuals. it aims to strengthen advocacy for ns and encourage others to play their part in supporting our nsmen.

“since the introduction of ns in 1967, the chamber has been giving its full

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