Future trends for governance: some correlates, additions and complications Dr FM Orkin Oslo Governance Forum, Session 3D Voksenasen, 3-5 October 2011
A start: two precepts, jointly true... • What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next?
A start: two precepts, jointly true... • What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next?
• What do those noisy amateurs want now?
...and less cynically expressed • What are the lying bastards trying to sell us next?
• What do those noisy amateurs want now
• Holding government accountable is not only better for citizens, but makes government more moral and efficient
• Civil society will be more effective for developing the capacities and constituencies to engage government, not merely monitor or criticize it
Sarah’s slate of governance trends... Global Global financial volatility
Media
Regional configurations Urbanisation Migration
Arab spring
Inequality Yout h
Local
Socio-Cultural
Transnational crime
Climate change Economic
Powerful South
Slate of governance trends related... Marketised globalisation
Powerful South Transnational crime Media
Regional configurations Urbanisation Migration
Arab spring
Inequality Yout h
Local
Socio-Cultural
Economic
Global financial volatility Climate change
Global
... and some correlates Global
Powerful South Transnational crime
Regional configurations Food and water
Media
Urbanisation
Migration Xenophobia
Inequality Poverty
Indigenous people Local
Arab spring Yout h
Socio-Cultural
Economic
Global financial volatility Climate change Popular unrest
... plus some additions for consideration Global
Powerful South Transnational crime
Regional configurations Food and water
Media
Urbanisation
Migration Xenophobia
Inequality Poverty
Indigenous people
Arab spring Yout h
HIV & AIDS Exploitation of women
Local
Socio-Cultural
Economic
Global financial volatility Climate change Popular unrest
... and some serious complications Global
Regional configurations
Powerful South Transnational crime Macro/micro Corruption
Food and water
Public sector Urbanisation (in)-capacity Arab Migration Inequality spring
Xenophobia
Poverty
Indigenous people
Yout h
Media
HIV & AIDS Exploitation of women
Local
Socio-Cultural
Economic
Global financial volatility Climate change Popular unrest
Some reminders when tackling the issues 1. Many of the issues affect governance in the North as well as South 2. Appropriate mode of engagement for governance context? Autocratic → Pre-democratic → Transitional → Democratic Confront ational → Critical → Cautionary → Constructive 3. Reality check re civil society: flexible, ethical, committed; but also programme-level, uneven quality, un-elected, maybe ephemeral 4. Importance of not bypassing fragile states 5. Advantages of appropriate “mainstreaming” via engagement near or with government: scale, resources, sustainability, legitimacy 6. “Informal” institutions? Maybe need to be reckoned on for interim implementation; but often patrimonial, unfair, unaccountable 7. Participatory implementation is desirable; also non-linear, timeconsuming, intricate, contested, and has unintended consequences