10.05.2013
Company Analysis - Overview Ticker:
Molycorp Inc
MCP UN
Sector: Materials
Benchmark: S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)
New York: MCP, Currency: USD
Currency:
Industry: Metals & Mining
Molycorp, Inc. produces rare earth minerals. The Company produces rare earth products, including oxides, metals, alloys and magnets for a variety of applications including clean energy technologies, technology, and defense applications.
Year:
Telephone 1-303-843-8067 Revenue (M) 529 Business Segments in USD 2'700 Website www.molycorp.com No of Employees Rare Earth Products Address 5619 Denver Tech Center Parkwa Suite 1000 Greenwood Village, CO 80111-3013 United States Rare Earth Alloy Products Share Price Performance in USD Rare Metals Price 6.70 1M Return 22.0% Other Non-Rare Earth products 52 Week High 26.10 6M Return -10.7% 52 Week Low 4.70 52 Wk Return -73.7% 52 Wk Beta 1.81 YTD Return -29.0% Credit Ratings Bloomberg S&P Moody's Fitch
HY5 CCC+ -
Date Date Date
12/09 -
12/10 88.5x 9.2x 0.0%
12/11 18.3x 11.7x 10.6x 5.0x 2.4x 0.0%
12/12 1.9x 1.1x 0.0%
12/13E 163.5x 1.8x 1.0x -
12/14E 26.8x 8.0x 1.2x 0.9x -
12/15E 15.3x 6.6x 1.1x 0.9x -
12/09 Gross Margin -209.8 EBITDA Margin -347.9 Operating Margin -402.8 Profit Margin -403.0 Return on Assets -29.6 Return on Equity -37.4 Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/09 Current Ratio 1.9 Quick Ratio 0.9 EBIT/Interest Tot Debt/Capital 0.0 Tot Debt/Equity 0.0 Eff Tax Rate % -
12/10 -7.8 -128.5 -145.6 -144.4 -17.6 -19.5
12/11 55.2 42.5 38.5 29.6 13.6 16.8
12/12 3.3 -21.4 -31.4 -85.0 -21.2 -44.3
12/13E 15.5 2.0 -10.6 -21.3 -1.5 -9.1
12/14E 35.6 27.8 17.5 4.8 2.0 4.9
12/15E 35.4 31.2 21.2 7.4 2.4 6.7
12/10 17.1 16.1 0.0 0.0 -
12/11 3.6 2.7 394.0 0.2 0.2 19.5
12/12 1.8 0.8 -7.5 0.5 1.0 -
22.08.2012 -
Outlook Outlook Outlook
Geographic Segments in USD Unallocated Sales
Sales (M) 1
2%
12%
Valuation Ratios P/E EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA P/S P/B Div Yield Profitability Ratios %
12%
DEVELOP NEG -
Sales (M) 293 48 46 9
74% 100% Rare Earth Products Rare Earth Alloy Products Unallocated Sales Rare Metals Other Non-Rare Earth products
Current Capitalization in USD Common Shares Outstanding (M) Market Capitalization (M) Cash and ST Investments (M) Total Debt (M) Preferred Equity (M) LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) Investments (M) Enterprise Value (M)
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
138.8 1263.4 227.8 1228.4 0.0 0.0 10.8 2274.9
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings Molycorp Inc Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price
80
0% 20%
18%
18%
9%
9%
8%
70
40 64%
58%
40
40%
20%
50%
50%
56%
50% 40%
44%
44%
36%
27%
50
27%
27%
33%
0%
30
20
20
10
10 0
mai.12
juin.12
juil.12
août.12
sept.12
Buy
oct.12
Hold
nov.12
Sell
déc.12
Price
janv.13
févr.13
mars.13
avr.13
Target Price
Date
Buy
Hold
Sell
Date
30-Apr-13 29-Mar-13 28-Feb-13 31-Jan-13 31-Dec-12 30-Nov-12 31-Oct-12 28-Sep-12 31-Aug-12 31-Jul-12 29-Jun-12 31-May-12
33% 27% 27% 27% 36% 44% 56% 44% 40% 50% 50% 50%
58% 64% 64% 55% 45% 33% 22% 33% 40% 50% 50% 50%
8% 9% 9% 18% 18% 22% 22% 22% 20% 0% 0% 0%
10-May-13 9-May-13 8-May-13 7-May-13 6-May-13 3-May-13 2-May-13 1-May-13 30-Apr-13 29-Apr-13 26-Apr-13 25-Apr-13 24-Apr-13 23-Apr-13 22-Apr-13 19-Apr-13 18-Apr-13 17-Apr-13 16-Apr-13 15-Apr-13 12-Apr-13 11-Apr-13 10-Apr-13 9-Apr-13 8-Apr-13 5-Apr-13 4-Apr-13 3-Apr-13 2-Apr-13 1-Apr-13
Price Target Price 6.70 5.59 5.66 5.68 5.84 5.79 5.79 5.67 5.84 5.59 5.64 5.58 5.51 5.18 5.18 5.20 5.03 4.88 4.98 5.06 5.49 5.77 5.49 5.66 5.34 5.23 5.22 5.24 5.24 4.91
9.00 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 17.60 17.60 17.60 17.60 17.60 17.60 17.60 17.60 17.60
30
0
Broker
Analyst
D.A. Davidson & Co JPMorgan Stifel Piper Jaffray Cowen Securities LLC Byron Capital Markets Morgan Stanley Robert W. Baird & Co CIBC World Markets Goldman Sachs EVA Dimensions Knight
AVINASH KANT MICHAEL F GAMBARDELLA PAUL FORWARD MIKE J RITZENTHALER ADAM P GRAF JONATHAN HYKAWY PARETOSH MISRA BEN KALLO MATTHEW GIBSON BRIAN K LEE CRAIG STERLING CHRISTOPHER ECCLESTONE
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Recommendation buy neutral hold neutral hold buy Equalwt/In-Line neutral sector outperform neutral/neutral sell not rated
Knight
55%
64%
EVA Dimensions
45%
Goldman Sachs
33%
CIBC World Markets
33%
Robert W. Baird & Co
40%
Morgan Stanley
22%
60%
50
60
50%
Byron Capital Markets
50%
22%
Cowen Securities LLC
50%
22%
Piper Jaffray
80%
22%
Brokers' Target Price 60
Stifel
0%
JPMorgan
0%
D.A. Davidson & Co
100%
Price
Broker Recommendation
Target price in USD
Target
Date
7.00 6.00
10-May-13 10-May-13 10-May-13 10-May-13 10-May-13 10-May-13 29-Apr-13 17-Apr-13 17-Mar-13 28-Feb-13 16-Jan-13 29-Mar-12
8.00 15.00 8.00 16.00 6.00 48.00
10.05.2013
Molycorp Inc
Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics Shares Outstanding (M) Float Short Interest (M) Short Interest as % of Float Days to Cover Shorts Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership
138.8 67.3% 44.8 47.97% 8.94 64.70% 34.32% 0.98%
34%
65%
Institutional Ownership
Retail Ownership
Insider Ownership
Pricing data is in USD Top 20 Owners: Holder Name MOLIBDENOS Y METALES RCF MANAGEMENT LLC RCF MANAGEMENT LLC PEGASUS PARTNERS IV VANGUARD GROUP INC STATE STREET BLACKROCK TRAXYS SARL WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN LORD ABBETT & CO LLC SUN LIFE FINANCIAL I BLUE RIDGE CAPITAL L TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MA ALETHEIA RESEARCH & HARTFORD INVESTMENT MORGAN STANLEY ROYCE AND ASSOCIATES FRANKLIN RESOURCES AGF INVESTMENTS INC UBS
United States Chile Unknown Country Canada Germany Britain Switzerland Others
65.50% 25.18% 4.12% 1.45% 0.99% 0.79% 0.72% 1.25%
Institutional Ownership Distribution Investment Advisor Other Hedge Fund Manager Individual Others
52.69% 34.11% 8.92% 1.45% 2.83%
SMITH MARK A BURBA JOHN L ASHBURN JR JOHN F KRISTOFF MARK S HENRY CHARLES R
1% 4%
1% 1% 1% 1%
25% 66%
United States
Chile
Unknown Country
Canada
Germany
Britain
Switzerland
Others
TOP 20 ALL
Position 32'050'700 16'343'863 16'343'863 7'970'073 6'665'054 4'354'959 3'751'643 3'388'232 3'259'275 3'098'726 3'067'690 2'864'700 2'662'200 2'588'839 2'538'050 2'155'737 1'561'000 1'460'558 1'245'383 1'026'181
Position Change 15'000'000 0 0 0 2'178'834 158'531 799'181 0 -1'034'096 1'365'526 1'988'600 2'864'700 836'100 -34'815 1'135'345 -3'626'543 1'561'000 1'460'558 1'079'350 465'546
Market Value 214'739'690 109'503'882 109'503'882 53'399'489 44'655'862 29'178'225 25'136'008 22'701'154 21'837'143 20'761'464 20'553'523 19'193'490 17'836'740 17'345'221 17'004'935 14'443'438 10'458'700 9'785'739 8'344'066 6'875'413
% of Ownership 17.00% 8.67% 8.67% 4.23% 3.53% 2.31% 1.99% 1.80% 1.73% 1.64% 1.63% 1.52% 1.41% 1.37% 1.35% 1.14% 0.83% 0.77% 0.66% 0.54%
Report Date
Position
Position Change
Market Value
% of Ownership
Report Date
1'006'951 223'505 189'352 137'412 110'593
20'000 -85'757 10'000 -49'704 43'692
6'746'572 1'497'484 1'268'658 920'660 740'973
30.01.2013 31.12.2012 31.12.2012 30.03.2012 31.03.2013 31.03.2013 08.05.2013 30.03.2012 31.12.2012 31.12.2012 31.03.2013 31.12.2012 31.03.2013 30.09.2012 31.03.2013 31.03.2013 31.03.2013 31.03.2013 31.03.2013 31.03.2013
Source Form 4 13F Research 13D/PROX 13F ULT-AGG ULT-AGG 13D/PROX 13F 13F ULT-AGG 13F 13F 13F MF-AGG ULT-AGG 13F ULT-AGG 13F ULT-AGG
19.11.2012 15.06.2011 19.11.2012 15.06.2011 20.11.2012
Form 4 Form 4 Form 4 Form 4 Form 4
Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name
Geographic Ownership
Geographic Ownership Distribution
1%
0.53% 0.12% 0.10% 0.07% 0.06%
Source
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Country CHILE UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES n/a UNITED STATES UNITED STATES CANADA UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES CANADA
Institutional Ownership 1%
3%
9%
53% 34%
Investment Advisor
Other
Hedge Fund Manager
Individual
Others
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV Molycorp Inc Financial information is in USD (M) Periodicity:
Fiscal Year
Equivalent Estimates 12/02
12/03
12/04
12/05
12/06
12/07
12/08
12/09
12/10
12/11
12/12
12/13E
12/14E
12/15E
2 13
7 22
35 38
397 178
529 512
696
1'023
1'099
Gross Income - Selling, General & Admin Expenses (Research & Dev Costs)
-11 3
-15 14
-3 48
219 66 8
17 183 28
108
365
389
Operating Income - Interest Expense - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)
-14 0 0 -0
-29 0 0 0
-51 0 0 -0
153 0 5 0
-166 22 -3 312
-74
180
233
Pretax Income - Income Tax Expense
-14 0
-29 0
-51 0
147 29
-498 -54
-175
79
121
Income Before XO Items - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax - Minority Interests
-14 0 0
-29 0 0
-51 0 0
118
-444 0 6
-148 (0.75)
49 0.25
81 0.44
14
284
343
Income Statement Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold
1
Diluted EPS Before XO Items
(0.81)
1.27
(4.31)
Net Income Adjusted* EPS Adjusted Dividends Per Share Payout Ratio %
-46 (0.74) 0.00
121 1.30 0.00 0.0
-39 (0.37) 0.00
82 62
84 85
139 107
-45
169
-113
0.00
0.00
Total Shares Outstanding Diluted Shares Outstanding EBITDA
-13
-25
*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity:
12/02
12/03
12/04
12/05
12/06
12/07
12/08
12/09
12/10
12/11
12/12
8.71 2 0 1 3 2
18.52 7 0 1 9 2
353.432 316 0 16 19 2
639.044 419
633.678 228
71 112 38
52 287 66
87 0 64 1 63 24
79 0 71 5 66 13
126 104 10 94 32
616 20 585 23 562 34
2'361 65 1'589 45 1'544 752
4 2 0 2
10 3 0 7
21 13 3 5
179 162 2 16
359 242 40 78
13 0 13
14 0 14
12 0 12
231 197 35
1'387 1'189 199
17 0 0 92 -14
23 0 0 117 -43
33 0 0 540 -93
410 0 839 7
1'747 0 11 1'681 -444
Total Shareholders Equity
78
75
447
845
1'248
Total Liabilities & Equity
95
98
480
1'255
2'995
5.43 5.42
10.07 10.00
8.91 3.94
12/13E
12/14E
12/15E
6.87
7.07
7.64
Balance Sheet Total Current Assets + Cash & Near Cash Items + Short Term Investments + Accounts & Notes Receivable + Inventories + Other Current Assets Total Long-Term Assets + Long Term Investments Gross Fixed Assets Accumulated Depreciation + Net Fixed Assets + Other Long Term Assets Total Current Liabilities + Accounts Payable + Short Term Borrowings + Other Short Term Liabilities Total Long Term Liabilities + Long Term Borrowings + Other Long Term Borrowings Total Liabilities + Long Preferred Equity + Minority Interest + Share Capital & APIC + Retained Earnings & Other Equity
Book Value Per Share Tangible Book Value Per Share
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity:
12/02
12/03
12/04
12/05
12/06
12/07
12/08
12/09
12/10
12/11
12/12
12/13E
12/14E
12/15E
Net Income + Depreciation & Amortization + Other Non-Cash Adjustments + Changes in Non-Cash Capital
-14 1 10 -4
-29 4 10 -8
-51 6 16 0
118 16 -90 0
-450 53 307 0
-149
50
73
Cash From Operating Activities + Disposal of Fixed Assets + Capital Expenditures + Increase in Investments + Decrease in Investments + Other Investing Activities
-7 0 -0 0 0 -82
-22 0 -7 0 0 10
-29 0 -33 0 0 -26
43 0 -302 -20 0 -27
-90 0 -800 0 0 -623
-417
-62
-51
Cash From Investing Activities + Dividends Paid + Change in Short Term Borrowings + Increase in Long Term Borrowings + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings + Increase in Capital Stocks + Decrease in Capital Stocks + Other Financing Activities
-82 0 0 92 0 0 0 0
2 0 7 18 0 0 0 0
-59 0 4 0 379 0 15
-349 -9 -3 228 -4 200 0 -2
-1'423 -11 0 1'436 -229 132 0 -6
92
25
398
409
1'321
2
5
310
102
-191
-8
-30
-62
-259
-889
-493
49
-5
-58 -0.99
-259 -48 -3.11
307 -8.31
Cash Flows
Cash From Financing Activities Net Changes in Cash Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) Free Cash Flow To Firm Free Cash Flow To Equity Free Cash Flow per Share
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity:
12/02
12/03
12/04
12/05
12/06
12/07
12/08
12/09
12/10
12/11
12/12
88.5x 9.2x 0.0%
18.3x 11.7x 10.6x 5.0x 2.4x 0.0%
1.9x 1.1x 0.0%
12/13E
12/14E
12/15E
26.8x
15.3x
163.5x 1.8x 1.0x
8.0x 1.2x 0.9x
6.6x 1.1x 0.9x
15.5% 2.0% -10.6% -21.3% -1.5% -9.1%
35.6% 27.8% 17.5% 4.8% 2.0% 4.9%
35.4% 31.2% 21.2% 7.4% 2.4% 6.7%
Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings EV to EBIT EV to EBITDA Price to Sales Price to Book Dividend Yield Profitability Ratios Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Operating Margin Profit Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio Quick Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) Tot Debt/Capital Tot Debt/Equity Others Asset Turnover Accounts Receivable Turnover Accounts Payable Turnover Inventory Turnover
-510.5% -617.8% -661.6% -658.6%
-209.8% -347.9% -402.8% -403.0% -29.6% -37.4%
-7.8% -128.5% -145.6% -144.4% -17.6% -19.5%
55.2% 42.5% 38.5% 29.6% 13.6% 16.8%
3.3% -21.4% -31.4% -85.0% -21.2% -44.3%
2.13 0.87
1.94 0.86
17.06 16.07
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.01 0.01
3.58 2.74 393.98 0.19 0.23
1.76 0.78 -7.51 0.50 0.98
0.07 5.53 10.72 3.81
0.12 3.99 6.06 2.77
0.46 9.11 3.10 2.72
0.25 8.59 3.40 2.56
Effective Tax Rate
19.5%
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision MOLYCORP INC Latest Fiscal Year:
12/2012 26.10 11.05.2012 4.70 17.04.2013 1'971'516
52-Week High 52-Week High Date 52-Week Low 52-Week Low Date Daily Volume
Current Price (5/dd/yy) 52-Week High % Change 52-Week Low % Change Total Common Shares (M)
Market Capitalization Total Debt Preferred Stock Minority Interest Cash and Equivalents
Enterprise Value
TEXAS RARE EARTH
RARE ELEMENT RES
1.00 16.05.2012 0.14 29.11.2012 100
QUEST RARE MINER
06/2012 5.45 21.06.2012 1.60 08.05.2013 85'145
LYNAS CORP LTD
10/2012 2.14 11.05.2012 0.40 18.04.2013 36'350
06/2012 1.13 29.05.2012 0.48 19.04.2013 36'987'009
AVALON RARE META
ARAFURA RESOURCE
08/2012 2.41 17.09.2012 0.93 17.04.2013 311'063
RAM RESOURCES LT
06/2012 0.30 14.05.2012 0.10 30.04.2013 1'243'350
GREENLAND MINERA
06/2012 0.01 29.10.2012 0.00 14.06.2012 2'020'000
12/2012 0.47 25.06.2012 0.24 30.04.2013 883'574
6.70
0.40
2.00
0.54
0.66
1.11
0.12
0.00
0.27
-74.3% 42.6% 138.8
-60.0% 185.7% -
-63.3% 25.0% 44.4
-74.8% 35.0% 61.9
-41.3% 38.9% 1'715.0
-53.9% 19.4% 103.6
-59.3% 20.0% 396.0
-83.3% 0.0% 968.8
-43.0% 12.8% 567.9
1'263
15
90
34
1'294
115
53
1
152
1'228.4 0.0 10.8 227.8
-
51.7
26.4
403.1 124.4
38.3
0.0 19.5
5.9 0.1
10.8
2'275
-
18
1'504
7
141
528.9 590.8 696.3 1'023.4 4.4x 4.4x (113.0) (110.5) 14.0 284.0 -20.5x -0.40 -0.73 (0.75) 0.25 26.8x 33.3% (20.9%) 2.0% 27.8%
-
0.0 #DIV/0! (31.3) (31.3) -5.5x -0.79 -0.63 (0.27) (0.18) (73.9%) -
0.0 #DIV/0! -0.08 -0.08 -
0.0 35.7 331.5 #DIV/0! 43.4x 4.7x (78.2) (91.5) (83.3) 63.7 -17.1x 24.3x -0.05 -0.06 (0.05) 0.01 82.5x (37.0%) (233.8%) 19.2%
0.0 0.9 0.6 #DIV/0! (12.1) (5.8) (5.8) -8.6x -0.11 -0.09 (0.09) (0.08) (31.3%) (644.4%) (966.7%)
99.3% 49.6% -5.110x
-
0.0% 0.0% -
0.0% 0.0% -
71.5% 41.7% -20.098x
0.0% 0.0% -
CCC+ 22.08.2012 -
-
-
-
-
-
41
95
12 Valuation
Total Revenue
EV/Total Revenue
EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EPS
P/E
Revenue Growth EBITDA Growth EBITDA Margin
LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 LFY LTM CY+1 CY+2 1 Year 5 Year 1 Year 5 Year LTM CY+1 CY+2
0.0 #DIV/0! (11.1) (9.1) -3.5x -0.02 -0.01 (4.7%) -
0.0 #DIV/0! (1.1) (1.1) -6.0x -0.00 24.6% -
0.0 #DIV/0! (12.2) (12.2) -11.6x -0.04 -0.04 17.4% -
0.0% 0.0% -23.499x
0.0% 0.0% -
-
-
Leverage/Coverage Ratios Total Debt / Equity % Total Debt / Capital % Total Debt / EBITDA Net Debt / EBITDA EBITDA / Int. Expense
0.0% 0.0% -3739.744x
Credit Ratings S&P LT Credit Rating S&P LT Credit Rating Date Moody's LT Credit Rating Moody's LT Credit Rating Date
-
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |